The Decibel - After years of hostility, Carney defrosts relations with India

Episode Date: March 5, 2026

Prime Minister Mark Carney finished his trip to India this week, marking the start of what he says is a new partnership between the two countries. The relationship between Canada and India has been tense for years, with allegations of Canadian election interference from India and accusations against Indian government agents over the killing of a Sikh-Canadian activist. The Globe’s senior parliamentary reporter Steven Chase is on this trip with Carney to India. Today he tells us why this reset in relations is so important for the Canadian government, what deals came out of it, and how Carney makes sense of the trip given the ongoing concerns with India. Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Prime Minister Mark Carney just finished his trip to India. My visit is the first bilateral visit by a Canadian Prime Minister in eight years. This visit marks the end of a challenging period, and more importantly, the beginning of a new, more ambitious partnership between two confident and complementary nations. Canada's relationship with India has been tense for years, with concerns around foreign election interference and allegations against Indian government agents

over the killing of a Canadian citizen in BC. But as the Canadian government tries to expand trading partners, Carney is hoping to get back into India's good books. It seems to have worked so far. The trip ended with more than a dozen agreements, deals, and memorandums of understanding that could lead to billions of dollars in trade between the two countries.

The Globe's senior parliamentary reporter, Stephen Chase, is on this trip with the Prime Minister that includes visits to India, Australia, and Japan. Today, he'll explain why this reset is so important for the government, what came out of it, and how Carney makes sense of this trip amid ongoing concerns that India is interfering with Canadian affairs. I'm Cheryl Sutherland, and this is the decibel from the Globe and Mail. Hi, Steve. Thank you so much for making the time today. Well, glad to be here. So Mark Carney made it clear that he's trying to reset the relationship between Canada and India because it has been frosty for a while now, which we will get into in a bit.

But before we do, Steve, tell me why it is so important for Canada to have India as a trading partner. India is the world's fourth or fifth largest economy, depending how you measure it. We've got 1.4 billion people there, an expanding middle class, a country that is trying to expand its economy tremendously, partly out of strategic competition with its neighbor China, and which is now engaging the world in a way it hasn't before. It's prepared to open its markets a lot more than it used to. It's ready to do business. And Canada is desperate for new overseas markets. The United States is becoming increasingly protectionist under President Donald Trump, and there's no reason to think that's going to change even after him.

And we need new markets. And of course, the government has set a goal of doubling non-U.S. trade over the next 10 years. So we've got our work cut out for us, and India is one of the ingredients in making that happen. Right. And when you say India has been expanding its business, you know, India has been signing trade agreements with a lot of countries, including the European Union, which has 27 countries, New Zealand, Britain, European Free Trade Association, which includes Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein.

And the U.S. has an interim trade pact with India. So lots of stuff happening here for India. Where does that leave Canada? We're sort of at the back of the line. We have been in a deep freeze with India for a couple of years. And that has put our efforts to strike a similar pact on ice. And the interesting thing is whether or how much India will have incentive to cut a good deal with us, given they've already got access to a lot of other new markets.

And of course, this is a big change. Canada tried to negotiate a free trade pact with India around 2010 to 2012, but the Indians weren't really interested in cutting tariffs and removing barriers to doing business in their market. That has changed tremendously in the last few years. And so, yeah, we're at the back of the line right now. What does trade look like between India and Canada right now? It's not a lot given the size of India's economy. I'm talking about less than 1% of our exports go to that market.

So there's lots of room to grow. We can sell products to them, commodities. They are hungry for energy. They want our agricultural products, our peas, our lentils, which are staples of the Indian diet. But also services. India is building approximately, 20 international airports right now and many dozens more local airports. They are building new nuclear

reactors. They need architectural services. They need construction advice. And India's high commissioner to Canada has said they will take whatever we can buy, whether it's LNG, whether it's critical minerals, whether it's oil, whether it's other raw commodities, whether it's our architectural services, our engineering know-how and so on. So the sky is the limit. And, you know, And it's just a matter of making sure we can get in that market and compete with other Western countries who are on the ground as we speak. Okay. Steve, let's talk about the trip proper and the deals that came out of it. There was this big deal around uranium.

What should we know about that? Mr. Carney secured an unprecedented deal for Saskatchewan's Chemical Corporation to supply $2.6 billion of uranium to India to the government of India over the next eight years. And this is a significant deal. It's the biggest we've ever seen, and it's only the second deal we've ever signed. There, in fact, was a lull between the first supply contract, which ended in 2020, and the new one, which, of course, is starting in 2027, because of the breakdown relations between the two countries. India, as I said earlier, is building lots of new nuclear power plants. It's got a power. It's the economic expansion.

And we are really primed to be a supplier of the ingredient that they need to run those power. our plants. So it's a very interesting deal because it would not have happened if we still had poor relations. In fact, it's really important. This is a sale between chemical, as I said, and the government of India, not a private company in India. So there's a lot of politics about this and relations had to be stable to get a deal like this. Yeah. And from what I understand as well, this is significant because when it comes to uranium and Canada, there is actually a history there, right, that there has been a bit of tension even before the frosting that was recent? Yeah, I would say one of the biggest obstacles in the Canada-India relationship,

one of the biggest problems was in the 1970s. When they used nuclear technology we had given to them for peaceful purposes, they used it to build a nuclear bomb, which they exploded in 1974. Smiling Buddha was his name. And that caused a major rift between our two countries. We suspended any exports of uranium and nuclear quix. cooperation. And we didn't really patch that up until about 2009 when then Prime Minister Stephen Harper signed a deal to bring that chapter to a close. And then, of course, what flowed from

that in 2015 was our first new supply contract of uranium, again from chemical corporation to India, a deal that lasted until 2020. Okay. So now we have this new uranium deal. And $2.6 billion seems like a significant amount of money. It is. Yeah. It's a very big deal. and it's also a sign of India's increasing appetite for uranium the last time the deal was quite smaller than this. So this would be the sort of crown jewel of this trip in terms of achievements. Okay, so you mentioned this is kind of the crown jewel of this trip. But there are also 13 agreements signed between Canadian universities and Indian universities. What should we know about those?

Yeah, these are pretty significant in the sense that the government and universities have pointed out that education is often a real bridge between two countries. And so we have 13 agreements between Canadian universities and counterparts in India to facilitate more research, more programs, for instance, where a student might study two years in Canada and two years in India, program that might see universities have built physical presences in India. What they intend is they want to see a lot of high-quality students coming to Canada, for instance, in the STEM area, in science and so on,

and sort of basically increase the collaboration between the two countries on scientific research, on things that could be commercialized. And I think it's really trying to, you know, move our two academic spheres closer together in the hopes that there'll be lots of, you know, spin-offs from that. So I think it's one of the most significant things in building a much closer relationship between the India of the 21st century

and Canada. There has been some domestic debates about international students in Canada in recent years, including a cap on the number that can come. Do these agreements show that things are moving together on that front too? Yeah. One thing that's interesting is India's envoy to Canada, Dinesh Pettnick, says that he didn't want to see us importing Tim Horton's workers. He wanted to see us importing STEM science students and sort of high-quality educational

opportunities that help his country. Also, they were not happy in India with the way this transpired. A lot of this was driven by universities and colleges in Canada who were attracting people, and this wasn't really overseen by the Indian government. So the Indian government itself is saying it wants to send its best and brightest here to get educated and go home and help build their country. What else came from this trip, Steve? Any other agreements we should know about? Sure. Every international trip the Prime Minister does, whether it's Mr. Carney or his predecessors, they sign non-binding memorandums of understanding. These are essentially letters intent to cooperate.

And of course, we've signed a number this time to cooperate on supplying critical minerals, sharing know-how in the nuclear sector, in LNG, in oil, in any sort of ingredient or product that's going to be important for, you know, the emerging economy of the 21st century. One thing that they talked about was increasing security cooperation on things like, like the flow of ingredient chemicals for illegal production of fentanyl, in places like Canada, obviously, where it's a real scourge, and as well working together to fight international crime syndicates, gangs that are operating in both countries.

There was also about 10 commercial agreements that is, you know, agreements signed between Canadian businesses and Indian businesses, many of which had already been announced beforehand. The uranium one is definitely the pick of the litter on that. Okay. And just to be clear, there wasn't a trade deal between the two countries, right? No, the two leaders actually presided over the launch of negotiations and what they're calling a comprehensive economic partnership agreement. And this is basically our version of the trade deal that India is signing with other countries.

It's going to take about a year to negotiate at least. And it's going to hopefully remove tariffs that India places on our products and make it easier for us. to get our services industries into India and helping them build, as I said, you know, their plans for 20 international airports and a slew of new nuclear reactors and just really helping us diversify and shift trade away from the United States. We'll be right back. Steve, can you remind us why the relationship has been so tense between Canada and India? So back in 2023, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shocked.

everyone by standing up in the House and announcing that the Canadian government had credible evidence that the Indian government was behind the murder of a Canadian citizen. Over the past number of weeks, Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardip Singh Nijjar. who was a Sikh Canadian activist who was murdered in the parking lot of a sick temple. This particular murder took place in June 2023 in Surrey, BC. So when he made this accusation, it was only several months after the murder.

The Indian government immediately rejected the allegation and then proceeded to expel about 41 Canadian diplomats. and in turn, the Canadian government expelled representative of India's intelligence agency who was working in the Indian High Commission in Canada. This wasn't the end of it by any means. We saw only 16 months ago in 2024, Mr. Trudeau again expelled six Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner, who of course is the India's top envoy in Canada, and accused them of being part of a campaign of violence, against Canadian citizens. So I would argue, in fact, that really took relations to a low point.

There was also counter-expulsions by India. And things really stayed on ice until Mr. Carney came to office. Right. Okay. So as you're outlaying here, this recent tension between the two countries has been around the killing of the Sikh activist, Hardeeb Singh, Niger. And I understand we learned more about the alleged connection between the killing and the Indian government. What did we learn? Yeah, it's really interesting. On March 4th, First, the Globe and Mill published a story that said that Canadian authorities had been presented with evidence that, in fact, an Indian government official working in the country's Vancouver consulate, had been supplying information to assist with the assassination of Mr. Nidger.

What has the Canadian government said about these allegations? Very little. They are saying that the matters in the courts. And of course, right now, there are four Indian citizens who have been charged in connection with Mr. Nidger's death. And there's no evidence we've got so far that these Indian nationals have a connection to the Indian government. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anon said that since the matters before the courts, she can't comment. And what has the Indian government said in response to this? They have rejected it completely as they always have. In fact, we had an extraordinary incident in Mumbai during Mr. Carney's trip to India

where the High Commissioner to Canada from India flatly said we have never interfered in country. This also is on top of allegations that India has interfered with Canada's elections. A public inquiry said last year that India is the, quote, second most active country engaging in electoral foreign interference in Canada, unquote. And then there was this kind of confusing comment you wrote about from a senior government official just before the trip saying that India is no longer interfering with Canada. Can you explain what happened? Sure. Every time Mr. Carney goes on a major trip. They hold what's called a background briefing with senior government officials, and I'm saying extremely senior government officials who are, who talk to the media on an anonymous basis.

We don't identify their names. And in this case, during the course of the briefing, we asked the official, what is the current state of affairs between India and Canada. And to our great surprise, the official told the media that, in fact, India has completely ceased foreign interference operations to Canada. This was extraordinary and of course implausible. So the media kept going back to the official and asking them over and over again. You know, they've been accused of a campaign of violence in Canada against Canadian citizens, against sick Canadians. They have been accused of interfering in our elections. They've been accused of transnational oppression and other forms. And you're saying that's all over, even though it was just 16 months ago that we expelled six

diplomats. And the Canadian official stuck to their story and they said, yeah, we wouldn't be heading to India if they were still interfering in our democratic process. Are Canadian ministers standing by those comments? Not really, although it took them a few days to finally comment on it directly. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anon has distanced herself from those comments, telling reporters when we were in New Delhi that she would not have used those words. So with what you've outlined here, Steve, when it comes to foreign interference and it comes to the killing of the Canadian Sikh leader in BC, how did Mark Carney justify this trip to India, given all these allegations around the Indian government? Mr. Carney employed the same rationale he recently used for warming ties with China, an authoritarian country that has also been accused of significant foreign interference in Canada. His argument is, I'm a realist, and we need business.

And so I'm going to conduct what he calls values-based realism approach, a term that really hasn't been properly defined. But the justification that he extends time and time again is we have to accept the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. And we can trade with people and interact with them even if we don't agree with them on everything. Just lastly, here, Steve, as you said, we've seen Carney trying to reset relations with China as well as India now. how successful are these efforts he's making? And what's the potential cost here? Yeah, Mr. Carney has been traveling the world for almost a year now, trying to expand foreign markets for Canadian products,

trying to attract more investment. The seeds he's planting are going to take a while to really bear fruit. So this is not a short-term kind of payoff. But the question remains, how is Canada going to alter its behavior in order to accommodate countries? that we have had significant problems with. In the case of China, which doesn't want to see Canadians dealing with Taiwan, this self-governed island right next to China that Beijing claims as a renegade province,

the government, in fact, yanked two liberal MPs from a trip there where they would have met Taiwan's president. And in the case of India, we've already seen the government tell Canadians through that briefing that India has ceased foreign interference activities, a statement that was flatly challenged by the national security community. So the question is, to what extent is Canada changed its behavior, alter its own approaches in order to accommodate or appease the Chinese and the Indians? The next chapter of our relations with India and China is still unwritten, and the government hasn't fully unveiled its approach yet.

So this is going to be kind of a wait-and-see situation. Steve, thank you so much for coming on the show. Appreciate it. Glad to be here. That was Stephen Chase, the Globe's senior parliamentary reporter. After we talked to Steve, Prime Minister Mark Carney held a press conference in Sydney, Australia. Here's what the Prime Minister said about the concerns around India. Steve Chase with the Globe Mail.

I want to ask you about Hardy-Singinger. Are you concerned about the report in the Globe Mail this week that shows the Canadian authorities gathered evidence showing that Indian officials in their Vancouver consulate were assisting by providing information that helped with the assassination of Mr. Niger. There is a process underway to this is a criminal procedure. It's a process underway and my job at this point with respect to that process is to make sure that I do not say anything that prejudices the prospect of justice being served.

McKenzie Gray Global News. Prime Minister, are you confident that the Indian government is no longer involved in extortion's threats and violence in Canada? Well, the first thing to say is that our approach to foreign interference, to transnational repression, to extortion, the crime of extortion, in all cases is one of vigilance and engagement. Prime Minister, Stephanie Taylor National Post, you have outlined what steps Canada is doing to protect citizens from foreign interference and in transnational repression. But a lot of confusion exists, including within your own cabinet, about what Canada thinks India is doing. So I'm hoping that you can clarify in a yes or no way.

Do you agree with your own government official yes or no, who suggested India is no longer actively interfering in Canada's democratic process and that Indian agents are no longer involved in murders and extortions within Canada? Canada? Yes or no? Well, I'm not sure that's an exact quote. These are the words I would use and it's important. I would not use those words, okay, first point. Secondly, our approach is one of vigilance and engagement and we have made progress.

Abigail Beeman, CTV News. I still have not heard a clear answer as to whether you believe India is still actively involved in foreign interference and if you would not use those words of the government official, Will there be consequences for that official? There will not be consequences for those officials. Look, in terms of vigilance and monitoring, which we do actively on which I receive regular briefings, there are aspects of those briefings that I can share in public, and I'm not going to betray them. I will tell you that there is progress on these issues, and that progress is a product, in my judgment,

It's a product of the resources we're putting in. It's a product of the clarity of our position. We will not tolerate foreign interference, transnational repression by anyone. And we will call it out and we will engage with it in a way that is as effective as possible to protect Canadians. And that's what we're doing. That's it for today.

I'm Cheryl Sutherland. Bianca Thompson joins us from the Canadian Journalism Foundation's Black Fellowship Program and is our associate producer, Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy McLaughlin and Mikhail Stein. Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening.