The Decibel - Canada courts UAE amid calls to stop its arming of Sudan militia

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

This week, Prime Minister Mark Carney is in the United Arab Emirates to try to shore up foreign investment ahead of next week’s G20 summit in South Africa. Human rights groups and Sudanese activists are calling on Carney to condemn the U.A.E. for allegedly sending weapons to Sudan — a claim the country denies — but federal officials won’t say whether he’ll raise the issue.Geoffrey York is the Globe’s Africa Bureau Chief. He’s on the show to talk about what’s been happening in Sudan and why Carney and other foreign leaders are hesitant to put pressure on the U.A.E.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Prime Minister Mark Carney is in the United Arab Emirates ahead of next week's G20 Leader Summit in South Africa. He's mainly there to discuss trade and investment, but human rights groups and Sudanese activists are calling on him to condemn the Emirates for allegedly violating an arms embargo and sending weapons to Sudan. The civil war in Sudan has been going on for two and a half years. The UAE is accused of supplying one side with arms, an allegation they deny. The Globe's Africa Bureau Chief Jeff York reported that some vehicles being used in the Civil War are made by a company owned by a Canadian. Those same vehicles are manufactured in the United Arab Emirates. So today, Jeff is on the show to talk about what's happening in Sudan, how arms from the

UAE are allegedly being smuggled into the country, and why Carney and other foreign leaders are so hesitant to put pressure on the UAE. I'm Mikhail Stein, filling in for Cheryl Sutherland, and this is the decibel from the Globe and Mail. Hi, Jeff. Thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me. So, Jeff, things are changing quickly right now.

You and I are speaking on Wednesday morning Eastern Time. And Kearney is in the UAE this week in the capital of Abu Dhabi. But to understand the stakes of that visit, we have to understand the dynamics with another country. And that's Sudan. The war there has been going on for two and a half years now. Do we have a sense of the scale of the devastation? Well, you know, it's interesting that unlike other wars like in Ukraine and Gaza, there are no governments or warring parties or anyone who is keeping track of the death toll.

It's an example of sort of the chaos and, you know, the lack of interest in human rights among the warring parties in Sudan. My best estimate is that there are hundreds of thousands of people who've been killed in this war. And that would be a larger civilian death toll than in Ukraine or Gaza, even though this war gets a tiny fraction of the coverage of those wars. There was an estimate after, you know, less than a year of fighting, there was an estimate by the U.S. that the death toll already could be 150,000. There was a study in one city, Khartoum, after about a year, that showed that it was 60,000 deaths just in that one city. We know there's been tens of thousands of people killed in massacres in Darfur.

The best estimate is that the death toll is in the hundreds of thousands. Do we know how many people have had to relocate? Yes. The UN agencies do keep good track of that. And there's more than 12 months. million people who've been forced to leave their homes, either internally or across borders. There's probably around four million who've had to flee to neighboring countries. And, you know, eight or nine million who have been displaced, forced to leave their homes

within Sudan. So that alone is the world's biggest displacement crisis. Can you just remind us briefly, who is fighting here? What is this war about? Yeah. The two warring parties are the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces. the RSF. And keep in mind that those two forces were actually allies throughout the pro-democracy protest that led to the toppling of Omar al-Mashir in 2019. And at that time, there was two

coups, military coups, basically, in 2019, 2021, in which the Sudanese army and the RSF were on the same side. It was only in 2023 that the tensions, you know, power struggle, between the two sides led to this war. Now, keep in mind that the RSF, the former, you know, long-time ally of the Sudanese government and the Sudanese army, is the former Janjaweed. This is the famous militia, notorious militia, that led basically a genocide in Darfur 22 years ago.

The International Criminal Court laid charges or filed arrest warrants for genocide in those cases. The Janjaweed has evolved into the RSF, and today it is still allegedly committing genocide in Darfur, according to the U.S. government, according to human rights groups. So the story of genocide in Darfur has been going on for decades now, with the world really doing very little about it. And can you catch us up on what's been going on more recently in Sudan? Well, the biggest tragedy, the most horrifying atrocities, have been in the city of Elfashire,

which is the capital of North Darfur. And that city has been under siege by the RSF for more than 18 months. And for more than a year, humanitarian groups and a whole range of independent experts were warning the world that as soon as the RSF captures El Fasher, they're going to be massacres, just as there already have been in other Darfur cities. I mean, there's been reports of 10,000 to 15,000 civilians massacred by the RSF in the city of Elginah in Darfur. So everyone knew that this was likely to happen.

There was warnings going out, dire warnings to the whole world, that there was going to be massacres if the RSF captured Alfacer. Nothing was done except, you know, very general, vague statements about, please don't do this. But sure enough, the RSF captured Elfasher. And immediately, the massacres began. And it's believed that several thousand, at least, civilians have been killed by the RSF, just executed, massacred, endorsed.

door-to-door massacres or in the streets, basically because the RSF is largely an Arab militia, and it has been targeting the non-Arab ethnic minorities in Darfur. The RSF itself documented these atrocities by videotaping them and posting them on social media. Those videos are now being verified by human rights groups and so on, and it's very, very clear that the RSF has been massacring civilians, apparently with impunity and not even caring if the world knew about it because it's been posting those videos itself. Really a horrifying situation.

What do we know about who is arming the RSF right now? Well, it's widely known and very well documented that the main supplier for the RSF, the main weapons supplier is the United Arab Emirates, the very country that Prime Minister Carney is visiting this week. There are U.S. intelligence reports. There are media investment. There are flight tracking data showing flights from the UAE into the region, into eastern Chad, and southeastern Libya, where the RSF is getting its supplies from.

There are satellite images, reports by human rights groups, humanitarian groups. There are passports that were seized from mercenaries who were heading into Darfur to fight for the RSFF that were bringing in weapons and so on for the RSF. and those passports showed very recent stamps from the UAE. We've also got videos, verified videos and photos showing UAE addresses on munitions. And we've recently seen, actually over the past year, we've seen a number of photos and videos showing armored vehicles from a Canadian-owned company in the UAE, the straight group, showing up on the RSF side and actually helping the RSF in its merger. assault on cities in Darfur. Do you have a sense of why the UAE would get involved in this conflict? What's in it for them?

Well, there's a number of reasons. You know, a very obvious reason is there's a huge flow of smuggled gold that comes out of Sudan, which is a major gold producer. And that gold ends up in unofficial refineries in the UAE. You know, there's this very well-documented flow of smuggled gold. ending up in places like Dubai coming from Sudan. So there's a lucrative business interest for the UAE. There's also sort of political or geopolitical interest.

The UAE has found the RSF very valuable as a military ally in places like Yemen in the wars there in the past. And the UAE has a sort of ideological interest in opposing the Sudanese army, which has a number of Islam. in it. So there's this kind of fear that Islamists might get greater influence in Sudan if the Sudanese army wins the war. And just generally, the UAE has become much more active across Africa in recent years. It's a very heavy investor. It's building its influence, both economic and political, across Africa these days. And Sudan is just an example of that. And it has chosen the RSF as his preferred partner in Sudan.

What does the UAE say about these allegations? The UAE has repeatedly denied that it is supporting the RSF. That's the official line from the UAE. And in fact, it is such a sensitive subject for the UAE that it's almost a taboo subject. I mean, this is one reason why Mark Carney will be reluctant to raise this issue in Abu Dhabi this week, because the UAE has been known to react very harshly against anyone who even raises the subject. And, of course, Western governments, whether it's in the UK or the U.S. or Canada, they're all looking for billions of dollars in UAE trade and investment. The Trump administration is very conscious of that.

I mean, Donald Trump himself has business interests, very lucrative business interests, and the UAE is reported that he is making millions of dollars from cryptocurrency deals and golf courses and so on with UAE involvement. So, you know, the UAE is not being reluctant to use its financial muscle to punish anyone who dares to raise the issue of its support for the RSF. We'll be right back. Think you can beat the stock market? Now's your chance to prove it.

Get in on the Globe and Mail trade-off, a stock market simulation game. Here's how it works. You trade with fake cash. Use real-time market data and learn from the globe's investing insight to make virtual trades. And you have the chance to win a grand prize of $5,000 in real cash. Just go to globe and mail tradeoff.com. Rules apply and registration ends on November 24th. Get in the game today at globe and mail tradeoff.com.

Earlier on, you mentioned that there was a company that was founded by a Canadian called Strait. and that some of the vehicles that they've manufactured have been seen being used by the RSF. Can you explain a little bit more about that, Jeff? What is this company? The Strait Group was created in Canada by a Canadian citizen, Herman Guterov, who established this armored vehicle manufacturing plant in Ontario and gradually expanded. He's now probably the world's biggest manufacturer of armored vehicles. And for, you know, for 10 years now, there have been reports that his vehicles, his armored vehicles are showing up in war zones and conflict zones, mostly in Africa, but even in places like Belarus and Venezuela.

This has been very well documented by UN reports. Recently, we've seen photos and videos showing that the RSF is using a lot of vehicles manufactured by Strait Group in its assault in Darfur, including. most recently in El Fasher. It's owned by a Canadian citizen, but it is now basically based in the UAE. It has manufacturing plants elsewhere, but its biggest manufacturing plant for armored vehicles is in the UAE.

And so this is part of the evidence we have of the UAE's involvement in the war in Sudan, is that we're seeing these vehicles that have been clearly identified as street group showing up in the RSF's hands in getting involved in these assaults on El Fasher and other cities in Darfur. What does it mean that armored vehicles that are made by a company that's founded by a Canadian are showing up in Sudan?

Well, if it's a Canadian company, it clearly has to obey the Canadian and UN arms embargo on Sudan, and it's not doing that. However, the argument might be that it is now incorporated in the UAE. It's no longer a Canadian company. But the problem for Strait Group is that if it's still owned by a Canadian citizen, as it appears to be, there's no indication that Mr. Grutov has given up his ownership of the company. If it's owned by Canadian citizen, then it falls under the provisions of the International

Arms Trade Treaty, which Canada ratified and accepted back in 2019 and even adopted into Canadian law. So under the provisions of that treaty, it doesn't matter if the company's based in Canada or not. If it's a Canadian citizen who is sending weapons into a war zone, then it falls under the provisions of that treaty and it's illegal under that treaty because he's a Canadian citizen. It's what's known as arms brokering and Canadian citizens are liable for that, even if they're based somewhere else. Is there any kind of accountability that would be possible in this case? Well, if it's violating Canadian law, it's a matter for the police. And back in 2016, we found out actually that the RCMP was actually investigating straight group

because of its sales of armed vehicles to Libya, which was also under the subject of an embargo. So we don't know what happened to that investigation, but we do know that it becomes a police matter if a Canadian citizen is violating Canadian laws and the arms brokering provisions of the Arms Treaty. I want to come back to Kearney's visit in the UAE for just a minute here. What are human rights groups and activists hoping that he'll do while he's there? Well, they're hoping that he raises the subject, put some pressure on the UAE to stop arming the RSF and possibly does other things like, for example, saying that he's going to suspend Canadian arms exports to the UAE because Canada is involved in arms exports to the UAE.

So there's been calls for all of those things. And the problem is that Mr. Carney seems very reluctant to talk about that. As far as we know, he's not having any press conferences in the UAE, which is unlike what he does in other countries. And there was a background briefing by senior federal officials this week. And they were repeatedly asked about the UAE's support for the RSF. And they just dodged the subject. They wouldn't talk about it. They wouldn't say if it was going to be raised.

They wouldn't say if Canada accepts the UAE's denials. That's really obviously a sensitive subject because, as I mentioned earlier, the UAE has reacted very harshly, you know, canceled meetings with the British government when they dared to mention this. And, you know, Mr. Carney is obviously trying to get UAE investment and trade. And he seems to be putting that ahead of human rights issues. Just in our last few minutes here, Jeff. I want to talk to you more about what's going on in Sudan and what's contributing to the crisis there. In Canada, the 2025 budget plans to cut $2.7 billion in foreign aid for the next four years. And Canada is not the only country cutting foreign aid.

There are lots of other countries that are drastically cutting their foreign aid budgets. How have these international cuts been affecting the crisis in Sudan? Well, there are two main reasons why the West has been unable to get the aid into Darfur, especially, that it wants to send in. The first reason is simply that the RSF and in the past the Sudanese military have been blocking humanitarian aid convoys. So they don't allow any humanitarian aid into war zone areas like the city of Alfasher, which the RSF just recently conquered. It's still cut off from all communications, cut off from any humanitarian aid. Those convoys simply can't get in. They can only get to about within 50 kilometers of El Fasher, and then they're blocked by the RSF.

So the main reason is simply that aid convoys are blocked. But the other reason is those aid cuts that you mentioned. And the UN agencies, the NGOs, the relief agencies are all reporting that they have drastic funding shortfalls. They don't have enough money and they can't provide enough aid even in the places that they can get to. So, for example, there's a town about 50 kilometers south of El Fasher that has about 650,000 refugees. And the aid agencies there say that they're, they just don't have the budget. They don't have the funding to help them all. They can't provide proper water, proper food, medical assistance. And this is mainly because the huge,

humanitarian funding appeals, where they've been asking worldwide for assistance, they're only about 27% funded for the whole year. And that's mainly because of those drastic aid cuts. You mentioned Canada. There's also the UK. And the Trump administration, of course, has dismantled the main U.S. aid agency, USAID, and has drastically cut billions of dollars from its aid budget. So, you know, humanitarian groups on the ground are just saying that they don't have the funding. They don't have the supplies that they need. Jeff, just before I let you go, are there any prospects for a ceasefire in Sudan right now?

Well, there's some optimism, some sort of optimistic arguments that at some point the two sides will decide that they've got a sort of unofficial partition with the RSF controlling Darfur and other parts in the south. and the Sudanese government and army controlling Khartoum and the North. And at some point, they may decide that that's it and they're willing to settle for that. But there's no indication on the ground that they're going to stop fighting. I mean, both sides think that they're winning. Both sides are happy with the recent military progress they've made. I mean, the Sudanese military captured Khartoum a few months ago. The RSF is now basically in full control of Darfur.

there is fighting that is still going on in the Cordofan region to the east of Darfur to the south of Khartoum, that's now a very active war zone that has raised, again, fears that the RSF is going to place cities in Cordofan under a siege just like it did in Darfur. And there's active fighting and no indication of that stopping. Citizens are trapped. There's really a terrible situation in Kordofan right now. Jeff, it sounds like a grim situation, but we're grateful that you could join us today to talk about what's been going on. Thank you so much for being here. Well, thank you for shedding light on the situation.

It's an ongoing horror and I'm very glad that you're talking about it. That was Jeff York, the Globe's Africa Bureau Chief. That's it for today. I'm Mikhail Stein. The Decibel is hosted by Cheryl Southern. I produce the show, along with Madeline White and Ali Graham. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor.

Thank you for listening, and Cheryl will be back next week.