The Decibel - How serious is Alberta’s push for a referendum on separation?

Episode Date: May 9, 2025

While the Liberal Party celebrated winning its fourth mandate in a row in the latest federal election, thousands of Albertans spent the night calling for a referendum on separatism. This week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith addressed growing frustrations in her province and shared her demands of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new federal government.This isn’t the first time separatism has been considered in Western Canada. But now, Alberta may soon get to vote on the question of separation.The Globe’s Carrie Tait joins the show from Edmonton. She’ll make sense of ongoing Western discontent, how Danielle Smith is responding and where the movement may be headed.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] 

On election night, while the Liberal Party celebrated, for some in Western Canada, frustrations with Ottawa hit a tipping point. Especially in Alberta. There are thousands of Albertans who are so frustrated with the last 10 years of Ottawa's attacks on their friends' and families' livelihoods that they feel Alberta would be stronger and more prosperous as an independent nation. Over the past week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been addressing the growing anger across her province. The vast majority of these individuals are not fringe voices to be marginalized or vilified.

They are loyal Albertans. They are quite literally our friends and neighbors who've just had enough of having their livelihoods and prosperity attacked by a hostile federal government. They're frustrated and they have every reason to be. This isn't the first time we're seeing support for Western separatism. But this time, the province may actually get to vote on the question. Alberta didn't start this fight, but rest assured we will finish it. Today, Globe reporter Carrie Tait joins us from Edmonton. She'll tell us what she's hearing from people across the province,

how Premier Daniel Smith is responding, and where we might see this movement go from here. I'm Maynika Raman-Wilms and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Carrie, thanks so much for being here. Hi, thanks for having me, Manika. So how big of a movement is Western separation in Canada? Like, do we know how many people actually want this? Right now, there's been recent polls that put it about 30 percent. I mean, that's absolutely a big number and it's a very loud group. What Jared Wesley from the University of Alberta has found at the last federal election, it was 30 percent as well. So it feels big and it is big, but it's actually not larger than it has been

in the past. There is a big difference though, and it is the people. This time, while Danielle Smith may not be waving a separatist flag, she's not exactly stomping out the flames. So this is interesting. So around 30% think this is a good idea. That means around 70% though do not support this idea. Just pointing out, I guess, those numbers there. So what have you heard from people, Carrie, who do support this idea of separatism? Like, why do people feel this way? This is really interesting. And I admit this was something that I misjudged. I thought it was, you know, very much a fringe idea. And a lot of this, to be fair, is very

much on the fringe. But as we were reporting in the federal election, I was out in Red Deer and I spent a day in Innisfail. And the way it comes up, and I noticed this particularly in Innisfail, it's a medium sized town just south of Red Deer, so central Alberta, is that people talk about it really casually. You know, they're like going to go down to the grocery store, pick up a liter of milk and a side of separatism. It comes so naturally out of their mouth. There's nothing that feels awkward or embarrassed, ashamed about it. And I think that's a result of 10 years of political movement in Alberta, very much politicians campaigning on the idea that Ottawa is the problem, Ottawa is in the

way. And it has just become very accepted that it could be a reasonable, acceptable alternative to just separate. It doesn't come with the thinking of the consequences. It was actually hard in Innisfail to find people who didn't bring up separation. We didn't have to prompt or prod. It was on their tongue, not ours. So obviously this is a really front and center issue then for a lot of people there. You mentioned kind of the tension between the federal government, between Ottawa and

the province. Can you give me, I guess, a little bit more detail? What do people talk about? What do they think about when they're saying there's kind of this disconnect? Well, that's a really important question. For some people, they can rattle off the list. And of course, top of the list, and it's been top of the list for years, is equalization payments from Alberta to rest of Canada.

Of course, Quebec takes the brunt of the complaining in Alberta on that end. And then if that isn't the top issue, you know, number two or tied for number one is pipelines in very tangible. People want this idea of like there should be more pipelines and it's Ottawa's fault that there's not. And that's going to be a really interesting policy with Prime Minister Mark Carney because he has indicated that what he wants to do is reduce the regulatory burden, you know, speed up approval process. And there are plenty of people across the political spectrum and in the

business world who argue, yes, that would be extremely helpful for getting Alberta oil and gas to market. And even if that made a giant difference, say, in the access to market, for some people, that won't be enough because pipelines is the physical representation of whether Ottawa is helping or hindering. And so I think even if there are notable steps and policy changes out of Ottawa, for some people it won't be enough because a pipeline is a symbol and those take years to build even with an accelerated approval process. Okay. So you mentioned 30% support for independence in Alberta. I believe you're one of the things you're citing there is an Angus Reid poll from last month, Carrie, that found that.

And the same poll, interestingly enough, also found 33% support for this in Saskatchewan. So let me just briefly ask you about this province. Like how is Saskatchewan and Premier Scott Moe responded to that? Scott Moe's been a little bit stronger on like, no, we're staying in Canada, not as aggressively vague as perhaps Danielle Smith has been. There is this strongman argument really that is being put forward, Mr. Speaker, that it's either the status quo or separation. Well, the government of Saskatchewan is not interested in separation and the government of Saskatchewan certainly isn't interested in the status quo either. Status quo where our province is being treated unfairly. But these two leaders have to navigate this because a lot of those people who are saying,

who are showing comfort with separation, are who belong to their parties. And so they have to figure out how to move about both worlds and it can and could be very dangerous for them. Okay, so you mentioned that Alberta Premier Daniel Smith has been kind of aggressively vague. It was your term that you used there when it comes to this issue. So let's let's talk about that. How has she responded to this? She has staked her claim in saying her line is something like a strong Alberta within a united Canada. As most Albertans know, I've repeatedly stated,

I do not support Alberta separating from Canada. I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. What she has also done is proposed legislation. Of course, this hasn't passed. We want to put a big star beside that, that would make it easier for residents to put referendum questions on a ballot.

So basically without saying it out loud, what she's saying is, hey guys, if you want to have a referendum on separation, get your signatures together and we can do this in 2026. And she said, yeah, sure, you know, she supports having those conversations. She's putting together a panel to listen to people and chair that panel in the wake of the federal election.

And if somebody wants to go ahead and run that initiative, you know, go right ahead. She won't be the one to lead it. And so, sure, she's saying she's not going't be the one to lead it. And so, sure, she's saying she's not going to be the one to lead it, but she's also not saying like, hey guys, come on, think this through, or, you know, she's not listing the top 10 benefits of staying in Canada type of thing. You know, depending on your view of Danielle Smith, it's widely being interpreted as fanning those flames. Okay, so yeah, essentially, this would need, you know, a lower number of signatures and you have a greater timeline to get those signatures in.

So yeah, making it easier for a referendum to happen. If this goes through, Carrie, and as you said, it hasn't gone through yet, but how likely is it then that Alberta will actually hold a referendum on separatism? Oh, we're having a referendum. There's not a lot of doubt in my mind on this if this goes through. When the premier's saying, oh yeah, it looks like we might have one in 2026, you don't need much more confirmation than that. Now that's assuming it goes through at the thresholds because this right now is very much being framed in the context of the Liberals winning again and this angst in Alberta. But what makes it

easier for those people to get their referendum question on a ballot also makes it easier for people who oppose some of Danielle Smith's policy proposals. It makes it easier for people who oppose coal mining in the Eastern slopes of the Rockies. That has been a major fight in Alberta. You get that on a ballot. There's chatter about a public inquiry regarding contracting and procurement at Alberta Health

and Alberta Health Services getting that on the ballot. And so first this legislation has to pass and perhaps maybe the UCP is not as keen as it appears if there's groundswell for policy questions that bite back. But they also lowered the threshold to recall politicians. And now there was a recall push on the city of Calgary mayor Joty Gondak. And part of it was that the threshold was so high

that they didn't meet the bar to then initiate the process. But by lowering the threshold, with maybe an eye on those types of politicians, it also lowers the bar on Danielle Smith's riding. And I did do the math on hers. And under the new rules, they would need, I think, something like 12,000 signatures in that writing. I mean, be careful what you wish for.

Yeah, these changes could apply to basically a whole range of things, as you're saying there. The timing of all of this is interesting, too, because I just have to ask, we've talked to you before on the show, Carrie, about the scandal with Alberta Health Services, where the former CEO has alleged that government officials interfered in the healthcare system on behalf of private firms. Carrie, is there any sense that, you know, all of this talk about separatism and, you know, that Daniel Smith is focusing so much on this, is this a redirection away from the scandal? It does split the opposition's focus when they are questioning the government in the legislature rather than solely focusing on questions around Alberta Health and Alberta

Health Services. You know, they're splitting it between the debate over separatism and that controversy. We'll be right back. So Kerry, this idea of Western discontent, it isn't actually that new for our country, right? Can you give us, I guess, very brief kind of history here. When did we actually begin seeing tensions between Western Canada and Ottawa? I think before we even had the vocabulary for it,

of the idea of Ottawa versus Western Canada, that the history of our entire country is figuring out how we all fit together. And it can feel new each time it comes up. This one feels you know like think of the last iteration on the West wants in. That was more of I mean it was literally the slogan was the opposite of separation. This one is much more overt but to me it also feels like it does lack definition. Like the proponents are unclear of what it is that they are aiming for.

Do you want to be an independent country? Do you want to join the United States? Are you leaving and taking Saskatchewan and maybe the interior of BC with you? And that's where it loses, I think, credibility. It makes it a lot harder to imagine how this would work. The details have not been presented, I guess, to the public and thought through. This is not as easy as, you know, I'm mad, let's leave.

Do people, I guess, understand what this would mean or that really, as you say, hasn't been defined at this point then? It hasn't even been debated. Like, the options are not on the table. Like, we don't have... There's no leader saying, this is what we should be aiming for,

or here's what we propose and here's how we would execute it. Right now it really is, you know, like a reflex to the federal election, not just the federal election, but the build-up of, you know, those years of angst and then culminating in the federal election. But if you ask someone what they mean on separation or independence, that's sort of where people will go, well, I'd be open to considering it. And sort of that, you know, where we talked about that 30% of Albertans and perhaps Saskatchewanians, it comes across as like, yes, I'm in favor of that. Well, I'm open to it. It's almost like, you know, they're separatist curious, right? They're open

to hearing the ideas. And that's where I think those polls, where there's bend and weakness in them, it's not so clearly defined, which makes it hard to have a serious conversation about it at this point. Yeah. Of course, I think a lot of a thing about Quebec, right? And the movement there, the province has had referendums on this before. But they've kind of settled into this place right now where they do have different status in Canada, but they're still part of Canada. Is that, I don't know, is that kind of an option for this this Western movement as well, or is it very different? It feels like, as much as we just said, this has always been an element of Western Canada. It does feel like a bit of a beginning of building towards something that is decades out.

I mean, you don't suddenly start talking about separating and like four years later, two years later, this becomes a reality. But as it becomes more mainstream and as people in Innisfail and Red Deer and Calgary bring it up in casual conversation without it being a fringe idea, then it does feel like a shift, but not a shift where it's actually going to turn an end in, you know, actually issuing passports, but a shift in

this becomes a turning point in the history. shift in this becomes a turning point in the history. There has been some opposition to the suggestion of separation from indigenous leaders both in Alberta and in Saskatchewan. What are they saying here, Carrie? They have been pretty clear and again you know it's not a monolith but some of the chiefs have come out very clearly and said sorry back off this is treaty land and and said, sorry, back off, this is Triddyland and you don't just get to rewrite things as the political winds change and that they need to be involved. And it's sort of pointing out how complicated this is.

This is not just redrawing a map or even the idea if you could issue passports and currency. There's a lot of complications to this and Indigenous leaders are rightfully marking their territory. Kaitlin Luna has Premier Daniel Smith responded at all to these concerns? Dr. Kate Bates Yeah, she addressed a question on that this week. Dr. Sarah Bates I've never presumed that anything that we can

do is going to impact First Nations rights. In fact, I've said the opposite, that we accept and respect the fact that they are sovereign jurisdictions in their own right. This is about trying to have Alberta's relationship with Ottawa improve. Danielle Pletka Kemp, MPH, CBO, CBO, CBO, CBO Kerry, we've mentioned a little bit about the tensions between Ottawa and the West. And this is, of course, you know, we're talking after the federal liberals have won a fourth mandate here. There is is, of course, we're talking after the federal liberals have won a fourth mandate here.

There is a lot of frustration. So how can Prime Minister Mark Carney respond to this? What can he actually do to address this frustration in the West? It's going to be tricky, in part because some people are already dug in and saying, there's nothing you can do. And when you look at Premier Danielle Smith's list of her nine policy demands, it's almost like a suicide pill that they're not going to hit every demand to expectations where everyone is satisfied and it's setting up to fail.

This is a list of demands she put out to the new prime minister, yes, essentially saying we want these things, yeah. Right. And so it sets it up to fail. The liberals have indicated that they want to do things like shorten or streamline the approval process where that could make projects easier to, you know, emerge and actually execute. But for some people, the symbol is an actual physical pipeline and they're not happy until then. So it's going to be tricky.

One of the things that I think is, we have two new liberal MPs coming in, just for example, Corey Hogan and Calgary Confederation, they're coming in and they're saying like, we are here to be part of Canada, where you'll have people campaigning on the Team Canada side, where Premier Smith has been more neutral, as I said, you know, aggressively vague. You know, she's not putting out the fire. Some accuse her of fanning the flames, but you will have fresh faces who are not afraid to offend people who think separatism is a great idea. You know, they're willing to have those discussions and listen and hear them out,

but they're also not going to, like, gently dance around it and try to keep them happy. Hmm. OK, this is interesting then. So there are still two liberal MPs in Alberta. Will they have any impact on this conversation? I expect them to be waving the Canadian flag. And the liberals who were there at that point, they weren't as vocal out in front of this idea of separation, especially, you know, heading into election. You're trying to keep voices and competing ideas happy.

And in this, they're going to, I expect them to be out there saying, well, what the prime minister is doing when he gets rolling on whatever it is that he hopes will satisfy Alberta, part of their job will be to sell that and maybe to say, fine, there isn't the pipeline, the physical symbol that people are looking for tomorrow, but these changes we made do X, Y, Z. And so I expect them to be out there selling that. So Kerry, just lastly here before I let you go, going forward, how are we going to be able to, I guess, gauge the strength of this movement? Well, actually, I think we're going to see a preview. Even it could be as early as June.

The speaker of Alberta's Legislative Assembly, Nathan Cooper, he announced that he is going to DC to be Alberta's, basically the trade envoy. And that means his seat will be opening up. He represents Olds-Didsbury Three Hills. It is probably one of the most separatist-y ridings in Alberta. And that also opens up a spot where the Alberta's Republican Party or its Independence Party, whatever it is called, could run and test those waters and we could see real results. Of course the consequence even of voting for a

separatist party in a by-election is still limited, but that gives us a good idea of how perhaps Premier Smith will manage this. And if people who say yes to a poll will say yes at the ballot box. Carrie, thank you so much for taking the time to be here. Thanks for having me. That was the Globe's Carrie Tate in Edmonton. That's it for today. I'm Maynica Ramon-Wilms. Our intern is Kelsey Howlett.

Our associate producer is Aja Souter. Our producers are Madeleine White, Michal Stein, and Ali Graham. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Matt Fraynor is our managing editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you soon.