The Decibel - Jagmeet Singh ‘rips up’ Liberal-NDP deal

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

Since March 2022, the NDP has been propping up the Liberals in a supply and confidence agreement, that saw both parties support each other and strike deals to pass legislation. That agreement was originally meant to hold until June 2025, before the party breaks for a scheduled election that fall. But that relationship is now over. On Wednesday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh released a video saying he’s ‘ripping up’ that agreement early. Marieke Walsh is a senior political reporter for the Globe. She’s on the show to talk about why the NDP is pulling their support now, and what this move means for the major federal parties.This episode includes an updated clip from September 4, 2024Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail]

Since March of 2022, the Liberal minority government has been propped up by the NDP in a supply and confidence agreement. That is, until Wednesday. Today, I notified the Prime Minister that I've ripped up the supply and confidence agreement. In a video posted to social media, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced that he's ending the deal, pulling guaranteed support from Trudeau's government. So today, The Globe's senior political reporter Marika Walsh is on the show to walk us through what this means. I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms, and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Marika, so great to have you here.

Thanks so much for having me, Manika. So the supply and confidence agreement is now over. This was, of course, the agreement where the NDP props up the minority liberals during important votes in exchange for policy moves, essentially, that the NDP want. So Marika, now that it's over, what does this mean? Well, first of all, supply and confidence is like the most Ottawa boring word for a deal that actually means that the fourth place party in the House of Commons was propping up the first place party to make sure they could get their agenda through the House of Commons. And in exchange, the NDP got policy wins like dental care, like pharmacare, but they didn't get political wins. We didn't see a change in the polling as a result of those policy wins like dental care, like pharmacare, but they didn't get political wins. We didn't see a change in the polling as a result of those policy wins. And so now we see them trying to create distance with the minority liberals, who we know are led by a currently very unpopular

leader named Justin Trudeau. What this means next depends on which vantage point you are looking at. For the liberals, in the best case scenario, it means that they are in for many more headaches and a slower process in the House of Commons trying to get any bills passed, trying to end filibusters, trying to move forward, because it means they don't have the automatic guaranteed support to push their agenda through. The worst case scenario for them is that it leads to an election this fall. But just to be clear, this action today does not mean that an election is triggered, right? No, absolutely not. That could only be triggered if Justin Trudeau walks over to the governor general's house and asks for an election, which is highly unlikely, or if there is a vote of non-confidence in the House of Commons and the opposition parties bring down the government. the NDP said on Wednesday is that the liberals can no longer automatically count on the NDP

for support to continue in the minority government that we currently have, which is already a pretty long minority government compared to others, and that they will now move to a case-by-case negotiation with the government on whether or not they get support. So it doesn't necessarily mean they're not going to support the government's measures, but it just means that's not guaranteed. Exactly. And it creates challenges for the liberals, but it also will put the NDP maybe in a tricky position because they came out with very strong language in the video from Mr. Singh, in which he explained why he was, quote, ripping up the deal. He called them weak. He said they were sort of in the pocket of corporations

and not ready to fight for Canadians. Justin Trudeau has proven again and again, he will always cave to corporate greed. The liberals have led people... When you use such strong rhetoric, that ups the ante and that makes it more challenging for you to then decide to still support the Liberals in the House of Commons. So I will be very interested to see how they navigate this and how they explain their next steps. There's a lot of big moments about to come. We have by-elections, we have caucus retreats, we have the return of the House of Commons. So the pressure will be up and the spotlight will be on to see how this goes. Mariko, was this move a surprise?

We had been hearing that they had started talking about this. Just to remind our listeners, the NDP have been in this deal since March 2022, and they signed it until the end of June 2025, essentially, until the beginning of the next electoral cycle. So they have consistently defended staying in the deal, even as the liberals public opinion numbers plummeted in the last year, because they said they needed to get delivery on the policies that they had negotiated, and ensure they have these policy wins before they pull the plug. So in a sense, it's not a surprise because they've really gotten their side of most of that work done. So dental care is already beginning to roll out. And on pharmacare, while the legislation is not yet completed,

it's completed the process through the House of Commons. So now it's up to the government to implement. The NDP are not in a coalition. They don't sit in cabinet. And so they don't actually get to have a role in that. Although we do know that they really pushed from the outside to make sure there was delivery on these policies until then. So those were two of their big policies that they wanted in kind of an exchange for this support of the Liberals. They wanted to push these policies through. So they've done that then. They've done that. Pharmacare is not even close to being in place. We don't yet know how it will work. The federal government needs to strike deals with the provinces to make it happen. So there are many, many more steps

before any Canadian is seeing free contraceptives or free diabetes medication, as the NDP and the Liberals announced earlier this winter. But the point that the NDP are making is they've done their amount of pushing, the legislative work is done, and now it's about government work. They need to make an explanation for, as Jagmeet Singh said, ripping it up. The real explanation is that the politics mean they need to create distance. You know, when you're talking to people about how they do this, they were hearing on the doorsteps. The conservatives have made a big ad campaign and a big push to criticize the NDP by calling them sellouts and by saying they are propping up this unpopular government. And so politically, there was more impetus

to separate on the deal than to stay in it, I think. You brought up the video that Singh made this announcement with. And so I just want to ask you about that for a couple minutes here, because this is an interesting way to do this, right? He put out this really highly produced video posted on social media. I guess, Marika, watching that, what stands out to you about that video? What stands out the most to me is how heated Jagmeet Singh's rhetoric is in deciding to pull the plug and in the attacks he uses on the liberals to justify pulling the plug on this deal now. The fact is, the liberals are too weak, too selfish, and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people. They cannot be the change. They cannot restore the hope. They cannot stop the conservatives. That sounds like the launch of a campaign video for an election,

not the end of a deal when you're saying, we might still support you in the House of Commons, because it opens them up to even more attacks than they're already sustaining from the conservatives. If that's what they believe, why would they support any single thing the government does? Why would they do anything to keep the liberals in power if they believe the liberals are weak, selfish, and beholden to corporate interests? So I think it will be very interesting to see how the NDP explain this and how they navigate and balance now their attacks on the liberals versus whether or when they decide to support the liberals in the House of Commons. Maybe they don't. Maybe we're in an election campaign in three weeks time, Manika. We don't know. That's why our jobs are fun. But the NDP have said and made clear that they are open to still supporting the liberals on on a case-by-case basis. So this video from Jagmeet Singh really makes explaining that and justifying that a bit more challenging for them going forward. And so you mentioned kind of how the Liberals have, you know, not doing as well in the polls,

not doing well as well in public perception. It sounds like that was a real factor here then in the NDP's decision to kind of distance themselves, I guess, from the government? I think that the general dynamics in the Canadian electorate are likely the factor. So it's not just that the liberals are polling badly. It's also that Justin Trudeau himself is doing poorly in the polling. So when you look at the Nanos research tracking, it shows that the conservatives have essentially held on to and now really stabilized at a double digit lead ahead of the Liberal Party. But it's not just that, it's also that Justin Trudeau now is pulling at a double digit deficit to Pierre Polyev as preferred prime minister. So that just shows you that it's not just about the

liberals. It's also about their leader. And even though if you look at past elections, generally speaking, if you lump all the progressive parties together, more people voting for them than for the conservatives, when you're looking at the polling now, you're not seeing the NDP benefit from the liberals' slide in support you're not seeing the NDP benefit from the liberals slide in support. You're seeing the conservatives benefit. And so the NDP are looking at an unpopular progressive alternative party and not getting any of the benefit, not seeing those sort of more maybe like minded voters going their way. They're instead going to the conservatives. So that's a big warning sign for the NDP. Okay, so polling numbers sound like part of the story here. But Marika,

do we know what else factored into this decision? Yeah, so interestingly, Jagmeet Singh has decided not to hold a press conference on the same day that he made the announcement. So he dropped this on social media with a video, but he'll only speak to reporters on Thursday. But from our sources, I spoke with one senior NDP official who says this has been something that's been now in the works for quite some time. And they described it essentially as the beginning of the end of the deal was the last caucus meeting of the spring sitting. And in that meeting, they kind of went over the list of promises in that deal and promises in terms of what was expected from the deal and determined that essentially there was not much more to be gained from staying in it. And that essentially as much had been squeezed from it as they could at this point. And there had been rumblings about the binding arbitration situation with the rail workers in

the last few weeks. Did that play into this as well? Yeah, that's something that NDP labor critic and MP Matthew Green cited to the Canadian press as a reason why they needed to revisit the deal. But this source said that it was already in the works long before then. Essentially over the summer, they've been putting the plans in place to pull out of the deal and they had already set the timing of this, they say, before Pierre Polyev made his demands last week that they cancel the deal. I will add just one more thing that the NDP are saying on background to us that while they are open to still supporting the government on a case-by-case basis, they are also acknowledging that their decision to pull the plug makes the timing of an election

likely more imminent, that it will likely happen now sooner rather than later, more likely before sort of that fall scheduled election date for next year. So we are seeing the beginnings of a new campaign cycle restarting, and they are certainly trying to make the case that they would be ready should that happen. We'll be right back. Let me ask you about the response then. Let's start with the prime minister. How did Trudeau respond to this announcement? I think it's fair to say this largely caught the liberals off guard. When we were at the cabinet retreat in Halifax last week. House Leader Karina Gould told reporters point blank, she's confident the deal will sustain until the end of June. And that was really their cover, not just for their own management

of the government's affairs, but also politically, they are in a bad spot right now. And their argument is that if they have enough time, the political winds will shift as the economic winds improve, as the economic mood in the country improves with interest rate cuts, like we saw with the Bank of Canada, with inflation evening out, even though prices are still evening out at a high level. The liberal's position is that if they can deliver on key policy promises, and then in a year, the economic picture is better, people are better able to afford their mortgages, then they can better prosecute an election campaign. So they really needed that cover from the deal to have that certainty that they could

keep going until next year. And now they don't have that certainty. And internally, they were also making that argument to MPs that they had this certainty from the deal, not to worry that they were sort of in a very stable minority government position. And so politically, that's also gone for them. So they have policy and political challenges now that they did not have just 24 hours earlier. And how we saw the prime minister respond on Wednesday was sort of just to shrug and pretend it's not a big deal. I am not focused on politics. I'll let other parties focus on politics.

I'm focused on actually delivering the things that Canadians told me this summer they need. He's not going to say the house is on fire to the public. That's not how politicians handle these things. And I think it's also a bit of a shrug because the Liberals do not believe the NDP will actually pull the plug on the government. They believe they will be able to negotiate with them to get deals still in the House of Commons and to continue that support. For how long? That's a really big

question. But certainly there are more challenges now and more uncertainty now for the Liberals. My favorite quotes from the Prime Minister today were that, one, he's not focused on politics, and two, that the election will hopefully still be next fall. So that was a bit of a tell. Interestingly, he did say the government still plans to deliver on those promises that they negotiated with the NDP. So they still plan to deliver on pharmacare as promised. They still plan to continue rolling out dental care. So that is interesting to see because we have seen the liberals really trying to take credit for a lot of the things that the NDP forced them to do through this deal. You mentioned that even as late as last week, they were still saying they expect the deal to

continue into 2025. Do we have a sense? Were the liberals caught off guard by this announcement? Yeah, I think they were not just from seeing those quotes from Karina Gould, the House leader, last week, but also because a senior official told me that they only were notified by the NDP as the news broke. So there was not a lot of lead time. And that means they will have to adjust their strategy and even their agenda maybe as they head into this caucus retreat, which starts on Sunday in Nanaimo, BC. And how has conservative leader Pierre Polyev responded to all of this? The Conservatives essentially are now calling the NDP's bluff. Pierre Polyev held a press conference in Nanaimo, B.C. just a few hours after the NDP announced their news on Wednesday. And he essentially said, if you're really serious about ending this deal, then you will vote no confidence at your

earliest opportunity in the House of Commons. After Salah Singh did this stunt today, he is going to have to vote on whether he keeps Justin Trudeau's costly government in power, or whether he triggers a carbon tax election. So the point that he is making is that this is not a true ending of the deal in the view of the conservatives, unless it actually leads to an end of the minority liberal government and an end of all NDP support to them. One of the quotes up here, Polly, I've used is, is he serious or a stuntman? And that's, I guess, what we'll see come the House of Commons return is, again, how these dynamics change the House of Commons and how the NDP

navigate deciding whether or not to vote in favor of the liberals. So where does all of this leave the NDP now and leave Jagmeet Singh as well? I think it leaves them with more wiggle room in the House of Commons. In some ways, it will be very interesting to see, as I said, how they explain whatever decisions they make next, if it's not going to be a non-confidence vote in the House of Commons. But more immediately, more pressingly, they are in by-election battles on September 16th, which is the day the House of Commerce returns, one is a must-win seat for them in Winnipeg. So that's a seat where their NDP MP resigned to go work for the Manitoba government.

And so that forced a by-election. An NDP official has characterized that to me as a must-win seat for the NDP. In that race, they're up against the conservatives. So they need to make sure they hold that seat. And then at the same time, they're trying to win a seat from the Liberals in Montreal in a by-election that will also be held that day on September 16th. And you'll remember in June, you know, summer started with a bang for the Liberals because they lost that really key, long-held seat in Toronto-St. Paul's to the Conservatives. So

the Liberals have a must-win seat in the Montreal riding, and the NDP believe they are competitive, but acknowledge that it will be a very big uphill battle if they are able to win that back from the Liberals. So they can go to the polls, they can go to the doorsteps and say, we are not supporting the liberals. Because we know from the Toronto St. Paul, it's by election, that that was a bit of an anchor on them, a bit of a ball and chain. We know that from the candidate there who said she thought that the deal should end soon. So Marika, just lastly, the House resumes September 16th, as you mentioned. Given this news and everything that's happening now, what are you looking out for? What might we see?

I think the first thing to look out for will be the caucus retreats next week. The Liberals are gathering in Nanaimo, while the NDP have actually moved their caucus to Montreal to be in the city where they want to win another seat. And the mood there, what people are saying there will be very important. You'll remember that for the liberals, it was pretty bleak last fall when we covered those retreats. And so now people seem more resigned to the state of play that they're in. But whether the shake things up, whether this makes people more nervous, that they have less time than they thought, that will be really important to watch for the Liberals.

And then for the NDP, it will be just really important to see their reception in Montreal. They have not fared well in Quebec under Jagmeet Singh. And so if they are able to eke out this win on September 16th, that is huge. That could not be underestimated. And so that will be very important to watch for both parties because it's hard to look beyond that date. Until we know the results of that election, that will determine a lot for the liberals in terms of their strategy, in terms of their understanding of how bad things are or whether things are actually better than the polls might suggest.

And so it's really September 16th is sort of the first milestone before knowing what the rest of the year will look like. Yeah. And is there a chance, I mean, could we see a confidence vote soon after the House resumes? I would be shocked if the Conservatives do not force a confidence vote at their earliest opportunity. One of the questions will be whether the Liberals do a similar thing. They, prior to the deal with NDP, would sometimes make things a confidence vote to try and force NDP's hand. So those kind of shenanigans and games are things that only people in the Ottawa bubble even notice or are aware of, I think. But certainly there will be more shenanigans in the House of Commons.

Who is playing them and to whose benefit and whose detriment will be very revealing. Marika, always great to have you. Thank you so much for being here. Thanks for having me. That's it for today. I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms. This episode was edited and mixed by Kevin Sexton. Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy-McLaughlin, Michal Stein, and Allie Graham. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Matt Frainer is our managing editor.

Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.