The Decibel - The bloody struggle for power in Sudan

Episode Date: April 25, 2023

Sudan is on the brink of civil war, after fighting broke out between the country’s military and a paramilitary group, the RSF. Hundreds of people have been killed, and thousands more injured. This, on top of an existing humanitarian crisis that is now expected to get much worse.Today, we hear from two Sudanese-Canadians, Esraa Fadul and Ahmed Osman, who are stranded in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, surrounded by warfare. Then we’ll hear from The Globe’s Africa Bureau Chief Geoffrey York about what led to this conflict and what it means for an already-struggling country.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail]

That's the sound in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, last week. Moments after a ceasefire was supposed to begin. The country is on the brink of civil war, after fighting broke out between the military and a paramilitary group. So far, at least 400 people have been killed and thousands injured. Today, we're going to hear from Isra Fadul and Ahmed Osman. They're Sudanese Canadians stranded in Khartoum. Like many others, they're running out of food and water. And they're afraid to leave their homes because it isn't safe.

Then we'll hear from the Globe's Africa Bureau Chief, Jeffrey York. He'll tell us about what started this conflict, why experts are worried it could spread beyond Sudan, and what it means for the humanitarian crisis already happening in the country. I'm Maina Karaman-Wilms, and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Yes, hello? Hi, is this Ahmed? Yes, hi, how are you?

Hi, Ahmed. My name is Mainika. I'm a journalist with The Globe from Canada. Ahmed, if you have a few minutes, I'd love to speak with you. And if your wife's there, we can speak with her as well. She's with me now. She's there. Hi, Isra. Hi. Thank you so much for speaking with me. You're so welcome. Thanks for your concern. Well, I know you're both in Khartoum right now. Can you just tell me what is it like there?

Yes, we are in Khartoum and we were just visiting Khartoum. So I was here to visit my family and my mom. And suddenly the war is starting in Sudan. And what do you see outside? Like when you're looking outside on the streets of Khartoum, what do you see? What do you hear? We are trying to go outside to bring something to eat and medicine or something like that. But we couldn't go outside.

So always there is a soldier everywhere. Yeah, there is a lot of voices of bombs, heavy weapons, war planes. There is a lot of voices, and it's so loud. And it's continuously, the whole day, we are hearing this. So you don't know when the bomb will hit your house. You really don't know. You just feel like you will die between any minute and the other. How have you been trying to keep yourself safe?

Just by hiding under the bed. There is nothing else to do. Can I ask what what is it like for you hearing all of this like how how are you managing how are you feeling how i it's so sad it's terrifying uh you feel depressed the whole day, you have fear of losing your loved ones or to lose yourself or you don't know what will happen to your family in any other minute. How are you getting basic necessities like food, water, medication? What does the fighting mean for how you have access to those things? Actually, the food, we are using what we have at home already. It's really hard to go out.

So we are trying to manage to eat a few small meals to last as much as we can, as well as with the water. The lack of water or the shortage in water, it's much worse than the food. We have no water now for like a week. We have no water at all. It's cut off from most of the places in Sudan. There are some few people who can access to the Nile. They go to the Nile and bring water. Some of them can share it with their neighbors and so on.

And some are not like us. We don't have water. We don't have access to any place of water. Just few people we know, they give us some bottles to drink just to survive. Wow. So you haven't had water for a week. The only water you have is bottles that people have given you then. Yes.

We have a shortage in all basic human needs, like water, food, electricity, medication, and medical care. Until now, we have more than 37 hospitals out of service. So even if there is anything, we don't know where we should go, which hospital. Even when you call the ambulance, they said it's not safe, we cannot come. They shoot anything, even the ambulance. I don't think we're going to be able to

stay by this way more than a week or less. Before I let you go, as a Sudanese-Canadian, I wonder, what is it like for you to see the country in this state right now? We hope that to stop this fighting, to stop this war,

because no one is losing but the people, the innocent people, who has nothing to do with it. It's between military and forces. It's really not between the public people we are just

victims we hope the human rights and international organization pressure the Sudanese government so they can stop the war I think we hope so we really hope so well Isra and Ahmed, thank you.

Thank you so much for speaking with me. And please, both of you stay as safe as you can there. Yes. Thanks a lot. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot. After the break, The Globe's Jeffrey York will explain how this conflict started and what it means for the country. Jeff, thank you so much for speaking with me today. Thank you for having me.

So this is a conflict between two military groups that actually used to be allies. So let's talk about these two groups and their leaders to start. Let's begin with the Sudanese military. So who's their leader and who does he represent? Well, their leader is General Burhan, who has also been the de facto leader of Sudan since the 2019 coup. Now, the Sudanese army, which has as many as 200,000 soldiers, really has been the most powerful institution in Sudan for several decades. You know, certainly has a lot more firepower and traditional weaponry than the, you know, than its enemy, the RSF. But, you know, the army is not as battle-hardened as the RSF, because really it's being based in Khartoum. And it was never really directly

involved very much in the wars that were happening in Sudan's regions over the last few decades. And the Sudanese army really is, to some extent, a representation of the elite of Sudan, the political elite, the establishment, and it very much represents the insiders in Sudan. Okay, so let's talk about the RSF then, because this is the other side that we're seeing fighting right now. This is a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, or known as the RSF. So Jeff, who's their leader and what do we need to know about them? Well, General Daghelo, known as Hemeti or Little Mohammed, grew out of the notorious Janjaweed of Darfur, and its roots can be traced back about 20 years to the peak of the fighting in Darfur, 2003 to 2005. The Darfur conflict in the west of Sudan escalated from 2003, when mainly non-Arab rebels took up arms against Bashir's government, triggering a campaign of repression by the army and militias.

More than 300,000 people are estimated to have been killed and 2.5 million displaced. placed. During that conflict, when there was very much a rebellion in Darfur, the Bashir dictatorship in Khartoum decided to deal with it, not by sending in its own military, but by outsourcing the conflict to this militia to crush the rebellion in Darfur. And it became very notorious for human rights abuses, atrocities, massacres. I mean, this was the time when, you know, hundreds of thousands of people were killed in what became known as a genocide. And this led to, of course, the charges of genocide against Bashir at the International Criminal Court. So that was the origin of the RSF. It was used again by the government and the military to fight various wars, to crush various rebellions within Sudan. And over the years, it became more and more powerful and wealthy,

partly through gold trading, which comes out of Darfur, and moved into Khartoum instead of being more of a Darfur-based organization. Now, it's believed that the RSF has as many as 100,000 fighters. When I was in Khartoum in 2019, it was not difficult to see the RSF headquarters, to see the presence within the city. They very much had no longer been just a regional Darfuri force. They were now very much in Khartoum sharing power. And so, Jeff, these two generals, I mean, essentially the head of the military, the head of this paramilitary group, they're kind of the head and the deputy head of the regime in Sudan. These two generals are fighting each other now, but the groups

actually did make an alliance back in 2019. And you were in Khartoum, the capital at the time. So what was going on then that led to this alliance? Yeah, that's a very important point that before 2019, you know, the economy had been worsening and people were getting more and more frustrated by the lack of democracy in Sudan under this 30-year dictatorship by Bashir. And over time, I mean, beginning really in 2018, late 2018, there became these street protests that grew out of, you know, protests against the rising price of bread. It became a more general protest about the state of the economy and democracy. And these protests became very courageous.

I mean, they were really resisting suppression from the military and the police for months and months. And so, you know, we look at it now as a feud between two military factions or paramilitary factions. But really, this whole thing began with very persistent, courageous daily protests by ordinary Sudanese people that led to the toppling of Bashir and ended his 30-year dictatorship in 2019. And it was kind of a betrayal of that street revolution when those two generals basically seized power and decided to delay the transition to civilian democracy. Sudan is supposed to be transitioning to civilian rule. Can you tell me about that process? So there was civilian-led government after the negotiations that began with Bashir's demise in 2019. And there were civilian leaders brought into government. And that led to more

conflict. They didn't want the civilians to have so much power. And so there was another coup in 2021, which pushed out the civilians and left the military and the RSF in total control. So the process began again. And this eventually led to this agreement in December of last year, December 2022, under which the military and the RSF agreed that there would be a transition to a civilian-led government. And that transition was supposed to begin in April, really. As part of that agreement in December 2022, last December, the RSF was supposed to be integrated into the Sudanese army. And that was the source of a lot of tension because it's believed that the RSF wanted that transition, that integration into the army to be as slow as possible, because of

course it meant potentially the loss of their power. So the reports are that the RSF wanted to delay the integration of its forces into the army by up to 10 years, whereas the army wanted it to be a quick two-year transition. Okay. So, Jeff, what led to this current outbreak of fighting this month in April? I think it was inevitable and to a large extent because the two sides had become fairly evenly balanced and there was inevitably going to be a power struggle. I mean, there was tensions that had been going on for months. I mean, this transition was an official agreement, but it was unclear how much power it really had.

Were the two sides really going to respect it? You know, now there's a lot of doubt that they were. If they're willing to engage in full-scale warfare in Khartoum and other cities in Sudan, what were the chances that they were going to allow a civilian-led government to push them out of power? So, you know, yes, there was an agreement they were supposed to follow that had been negotiated, but perhaps the, you know, the United Nations, the Western diplomats and so on were quite naive in thinking that they could trust these two sides, these military and paramilitary leaders, to go along with this negotiated agreement.

So we've talked a lot about the military and the strategy that's happening here, Jeff. I want to turn for a little bit towards the people in Sudan right now, because actually at the top of our episode, we heard from Isra and Ahmed in Sudan about what things are like for people who are stuck in the capital city, Khartoum. So I wonder, like, what are you hearing about what this conflict is doing to the country as a whole and to the people who are there? Well, keep in mind that this is the first time that this kind of fighting has ever happened in Khartoum. Traditionally, Khartoum was insulated from the fighting in Darfur and South Kordofan, Blu Nile region. It has been, you know, just devastating to the city. Gradually, we're seeing a total collapse of everything,

healthcare, electricity, water supply. You know, now telecommunications is becoming more and more difficult for people to get on the phones or the internet because of the damage that's being suffered by the infrastructure in Khartoum. So, you know, you're getting the RSF fighters that are very much doing urban warfare right now, going into houses, looting and assaulting people, putting snipers on rooftops. This is happening all over Khartoum. The main targets, like the airport, the defense headquarters, the presidential palace. These are all within the city in very densely populated areas.

Yeah. I mean, that stuff you're mentioning there, like the looting, the assaults on civilians, I mean, that's a really scary situation for a lot of people. And especially if they're dealing with also not being able to get food and water, people are in a really difficult spot. Yeah. And that's, I mean, that's the concern, that you've got a major world capital of 5 million people that the infrastructure seems to be collapsing. Wow.

There's also been several attacks on aid workers in Sudan. Three employees for the UN's World Food Program were killed. Another UN employee was also killed as well. And several organizations have had to suspend their operations in the country. What happens to the residents of Sudan if humanitarian aid can't be delivered? Well, you're right. I mean, something like 16 million people are considered to be food insecure right now. That's one third of the population of Sudan that basically needs humanitarian aid.

And that's been the situation for years. And of course, now it's much worse because all of the, or almost all of the humanitarian agencies have had to suspend their food distribution, their health programs for malnourished children. We're seeing a few courageous groups like MSF, Doctors Without Borders, that are continuing to help to keep hospitals running. And it's only been nine or 10 days so far. But if this continues, it's going to be a catastrophe for all of those 16 million people who are food insecure right now or who need assistance. And that number could certainly increase. So, Jeff, even though this fighting is happening in Sudan, I understand that each side has allies outside of the country. Which other nations are supporting each side here? Well, I think all the major powers are at least pretending that they want a ceasefire. So you're

not seeing very much overt support for the factions in Sudan from foreign powers. But we certainly know that there are relationships there, and those relationships are leading to assistance that's perhaps unofficial or secret. So for example, Egypt very much has good relations with Burhan and the military. So, there's been reports that Egypt has been sending in warplanes, special forces to assist the Sudanese military to regain control of some of the places that it lost. We're seeing on the other side, we're seeing reports that a Libyan warlord, Haftar, is assisting the RSF. I mean, he has good relations with the RSF. We know historically over the last few years, Russia and the Wagner Group

mercenaries have had good relations with the RSF. They're probably not getting too directly involved right now, but they've certainly been a source of economic support for the RSF by their involvement in the gold trading. Ethiopia and Eritrea are major players, but it's not clear yet what role Ethiopia will take. Eritrea has traditionally been close to the RSF. There's a lot of concern that Eritrea could get involved in this one. So it sounds like there are some big players involved here. I mean, what happens if this does spread? Could it spread beyond the borders of Sudan? Certainly it could. I mean, we're already seeing 15,000 or 20,000 people from Darfur who've gone to Chad, thousands going to Ethiopia, South Sudan, and other places on the borders, Egypt.

So there's certainly refugee flows. But in terms of the direct involvement, that would probably become inevitable if this war continues. I mean, that's one reason why so many diplomats are trying to get ceasefires right now, because if the war continues for months, it's inevitable that some of these foreign powers are going to get involved. So what does this conflict, I guess, mean for the country's transition to civilian rule? Does it look like civilian rule still has the potential to happen? Well, theoretically, yes. I mean, theoretically, it's still something that's not off the agenda.

But, you know, realistically, it's going to have to wait until the fighting has ended. And this fighting may continue for months or years. It's going to have to continue until the fighting has ended. And this fighting may continue for months or years. It's going to have to continue until there's a negotiating partner. And would that be the RSF or the military or, you know, who would be the negotiating partner? So there's so many doubts about how those negotiations now could be expected to reach agreements. Jeff, you mentioned negotiations there. So let's just dig a little deeper on that. What would actually need to happen to stop this fighting in Sudan?

Well, that's the big question right now. I mean, everyone is using every lever possible. But the reality on the ground is that, you know, the RSF and the military hate each other and are in a fight to the death. And they're not just going to listen to a politician from the US or the Middle East who tells them to try to cool things down. So it may be that until one side really gains the upper hand, there may not be much scope for real agreements, ceasefires or anything until this kind of power struggle has to some extent resolved. Yeah.

Jeff, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today. Thank you for having me. That's it for today. I'm Maina Karaman-Wellms. Our intern is Andrew Hines. Our producers are Madeline White, Cheryl Sutherland,

and Rachel Levy-McLaughlin. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pachenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.