The Decibel - The cash-strapped, disorganized fight to keep Alberta in Canada

Episode Date: September 16, 2026

Albertans will head to the polls in just over a month, on Oct. 19, to vote in a referendum. There are 10 questions, but the one that’s garnering the most attention is the question about separation: do they want to remain in Canada, or hold another referendum on whether to separate? Polling suggests 70 to 75 per cent of Albertans want to stay in Canada, but the federalists are having trouble raising enough money to get the message out.We’re talking to Marieke Walsh, a senior political reporter for The Globe, and Matthew Scace, a Globe reporter based in Calgary. They’ll break down why the ‘Remain’ side, which has an overwhelming amount of public support, is struggling to translate that into campaign contributions, and what a disorganized campaign could mean for the outcome of the referendum.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In a little over a month on October 19th, Albertans will go to the polls to vote on a referendum. One of the biggest questions, should the province remain in Canada, or should they start the process to hold a second referendum on whether they should separate? If you look at polling data from Alberta, support to remain in Canada is around 70 to 75%. But the Remain side is having issues getting their message out

and getting funding, which could have big implications for the vote and what happens after. So today, we're going to talk about why the side that has much more support in Alberta is having such a hard time. Marika Walsh is the Globe's senior political reporter, and Matthew Skace is a Globe reporter based in Calgary. They're on the show today to talk about the disorganized, cash-strapped groups trying to keep Alberta part of Canada. I'm Cheryl Sutherland, and this is the Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Marika, Matthew, thanks so much for being on the show. Hey, thanks for having us. Thanks for having us.

So we spent some time on the show talking about the Leave campaign in Alberta, but not so much time talking about the Remain side. So, Marika, can you give us a sense of what the Remain campaign in Alberta looks like? Like, how is it organized, who is leading it, that kind of stuff? Well, it's not organized. And I think that's what really struck me when we first started. looking at this story, I think now, what, two months ago, Matt? And when people think about referendums in Canada, they think about the Quebec referendums in 95 and then earlier in which there

was a remain camp and a leave camp. And it's not at all the same structure or set of rules that govern the referendum in Alberta. And so it's leading to a very different campaign. And that campaign is splintered. There's several different groups running different styles of remain campaigns. They're not allowed to organize amongst each other if they're registered as third parties. And they have very strict spending limits, but even though those spending limits are so low, they can't even yet fundraise to meet those limits. So it is cash strapped. It is disorganized, not because they aren't working hard, but because the structure of the referendum rules prevent them from organizing. And I think because the polling shows there's such a strong sentiment for Remain, it's hurting

fundraising because I think some people are taking for granted that this is a done deal. And Marika, even though what we see in the polls is that the Remain side has like 70% support, it does matter to get people out and actually vote, right? There's some math there that makes sense. Yeah, absolutely. There's the headline numbers of about 70, 75% of. of people want to remain in Alberta, and 25 to 30 percent want to leave. And Janet Brown, who is a very prominent pollster, very respected, very well-known, says those are very locked in numbers. They're

not really moving over time. And so it's about turnout. And you can imagine that the separatist side is much more motivated, right? They have been angling for this kind of vote for a long time. they're very organized and they are motivated to vote. And so what happens in a world where 100% of the people who want to separate vote and only 40 or 50% of the people who want to remain vote? You could see how the result would lead to a much closer, narrower race that would lead to a lot more instability and uncertainty in the weeks and months to follow even if the remain side wins.

And so the Remain side, people on the Remain side who are very focused on this, want to drive up that result margin as high as possible to really try and put an end to this question and not allow it to continue. So, Matt, can you give us a sense of who the major players are on the Remain side, like the people gunning to remain in Canada? I guess in no particular order of importance or prominence. The one I would start with is Daniel Smith and her government and United Conservative Party, and that's an important distinction we can get to later.

But the Premier has said that she is going to campaign to remain in Canada, that she'll vote for the remain option in the referendum. How the government and her party will campaign is a different story, and we can get to that. The Alberta NDP has their own campaign that's on the problems right now. They've been doing rallies. They're raising money, door knocking. And then you get into the third party advertisers.

There are really two main ones. One is called Alberta's Voice. That's run by a political strategist named Stephen Carter. He's been in Alberta for a long time. They have probably the most public-facing campaign so far. They have signs around Calgary in different parts of the province right now that say vote to remain in Canada, something along those lines and say no to the nine, which is a reference to the nine other referendum questions we're going to get on immigration

and constitutional issues. They've been the best fundraised group so far. And then there's a group called Vote to Stay that is run by prominent conservatives in the province as well. And they are running an ad campaign. I haven't seen any law and signs yet from them. But they're the second best fundraise group. They're mostly run by Monty Solberg. He's a former cabinet minister under Stephen Harper. And former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, right? And Jason Kenny and a few others. Exactly. Yeah. Then you go down the list down to the federal side. The conservative party led by Pierre Poliev launched its third party advertising group a week

and a half ago, I believe. They are operating the same rules as vote to stay in Alberta's voice and all those other third party advertisers. So they're also going to be fundraising. They registered about six weeks before the referendum. So they've got a really shortened timeline to be able to do anything. So far, they haven't registered a single dollar donations. And I'm sure that's changed over the past few weeks, but they're going to be in a crunch to actually get going. The last one I should mention is Forever Canadian. They're probably the biggest group circulating the province that isn't the government and the Alberta NDP. They started last year when they were petitioning to remain in Canada. And we don't know how much money they have they said

around $500,000, which is much more than any other remain group. And they've had a pretty outsized role in this campaign. Let's contrast that with the separatist groups. Like how does their campaign and their organization look compared to the remain groups? The separatists have been campaigning much longer than the pro-Canada side, I'd say. The Alberta Prosperity Project, run by Mitch LeVester and Jeff Rath, who are familiar names to people who have been following this movement, they started campaign the second Mark Carney was elected Prime Minister last year, and they haven't stopped since then.

They have lists, they have money, they have been circulating the province doing town halls for the better part of a year and a half. And so they have this infrastructure that the pro-Canada side is sort of coalescing. Like I'm talking, the conservative party announcing a third party advertiser at six weeks before the referendum is very different from the Prosperity Project, which says it has more than 200,000 people on its list who can go to tell the vote on referendum day. Prosperity Project being part of one of the separatists groups. One of the separatist groups, yeah. But they are subject to the same rules at the end of the day.

It's just that they have had a longer runway to get organized and get their ducks in a row. One thing I'm wondering, this referendum isn't do or die for the remain side, right? is that kind of part of the problem? Like, there's, like, kind of just more motivation on the separatist side? And that's the thing. The separatists are incredibly motivated. Like Jason Kenney said to us, they will crawl over broken glass to vote. We don't know what turnout's going to be like on referendum day.

But the assumption is that the really strong separatists will all come out in big numbers. Whereas for the pro-candidist side, because this referendum question is structured in a way that it would lead if the separatist side, one to another referendum, it wouldn't lead to Alberta's secession from Canada. It would still be impactful, no doubt, but it would be much different than the actual question of secession. It is slightly less urgent than for the separatists. And it's just one of the headwinds that the Remain camps face, right? So there is this question of the fact that the way the question is phrased lowers the stakes

or has the perception of lowering the stakes, but many people would actually say it does not lower the stakes, you know, once you trigger that results to launch a formal separation referendum, it's sort of the same thing. And Mark Carney actually warned Albertans about that, calling it a dangerous bluff when the questions were first announced. But then there's other headwinds, like the fact that, as Matt mentioned, there's nine other questions. They're complicated questions. There's 10 separate ballots. So you can imagine really long lineups. And so all of those things create just a small little anchor or pullback on the ability to turn out the vote. The big question mark that we have that we don't

have the answer to is how much does the Trump factor, this sort of moment of Canadian unity and patriotism just totally overwhelm those things and people just go out and droves as one way of showing their solidarity with Canada? We don't have details on that. We don't have data on that, but that is sort of a question. Does the momentum or has the momentum shifted because of this moment of Canadian unity in the face of Donald Trump's sort of really belligerent or derisive comments and actions and policies towards Canada. We'll be right back. Matt, let's talk about like what's going on in terms of fundraising, right?

So Matt, how do the campaign rules work in Alberta and how does that fit into this story? Yeah, they're quite messy. And you kind of have to go down the list for each group. So the interesting thing for the provincial government led by Daniel Smith, and it's the government, not the United Conservative Party, one, they have unlimited spending power, two, they have unlimited money, quote unquote, unlimited money because they have the entire public purse of their disposal. So the provincial government is basically free to advertise as much as it wants all the way to referendum day, no holds barred. The government said it's spending

about $4 million on its ad campaign and how it will be advertising is another question. It doesn't seem like they're going to be advertising $4 million towards the remain campaign. But those are the roles that the provincial government has. When it comes to the UCP and the Alberta NDP, they're the only real well-funded parties, so they're the ones that would have a stake in this. They also don't have spending limits. So the Alberta NDP will be spending as much money as it wants, though there are limits because it has a provincial election to think about next year as well.

So it's not going to be spending all of its money on this referendum. And then you get to the registered third parties, like vote to stay. They can only accept $607,000. and they can't work with other third-party advertisers. So they have to work in silos from each other. And why is that? Why can they only spend that? Is this part of the rules?

That's why they can't spend more? It's just part of provincial legislation. So that's the cap. So they can accept $600,000, that $7,000, spend that money, and then they're done. Stephen Carter told Marika that, you know, for a really well-organized campaign, you needed about $100,000 a week to get all the way for a five-week campaign. I mean, the one wrinkle is this is that a lot of these groups are struggling to get even close to that $607,000.

I think the thing that adds into the complexity, and I think what is surprising or confusing to people outside of Alberta who are watching, is that the rules also prevent the federal parties and the federal government from really becoming involved. And people like Corey Tenike, who is a very prominent conservative strategist, just say it's absurd, that it makes no sense. And in no way should the federal government not have equal weighting to the provincial government in a campaign on the future of Canada. But these are the rules that Alberta has set and the federal government has so far decided

to operate within them. And what that means is that if the federal government wanted to start really getting into the organization of campaigns and not just making the policy statements and the press conferences that we've seen from the prime minister, they would also be required to register as a third party. and follow those fundraising and spending limits. And so far the federal government has not done that. As Matt said, the conservatives have.

The liberals also have not. There's an open question as to whether there will be more direct fundraising from the federal government closer to the referendum date. But it has really limited, the rules have really limited, the extent to which the federal government can intervene in this campaign. And there's a real debate among the remains. inside as to whether Ottawa should be following those rules or saying, no, this is an existential question about Canada and therefore we have a direct voice and say in this. The concern among

some is that if Ottawa was going to take too heavy a hand, it would actually embolden separatists and sort of have a reverse or boomerang impact. And so, you know, we don't know what the answer is, but it is clear that there are some resources that aren't being put into this campaign because of their rules. And we are just marking that that means we don't really know the impact on turnout. Because as Matt said with the NDP, they are running the most organized turnout campaign, but they also have raised less money than the United Conservative Party has provincially. And so they have fewer resources to draw on to begin with, but they also have this provincial election next year and they have a duty to their members

to not spend all the money this year and then have nothing in the bank for next year. So I want to come back to the point of fundraising because as you mentioned earlier, Marika, that the rules are the same for the separatists as they are for the remain. But there is quite a discrepancy when it comes to how much money both sides have raised.

So Matt, can you give us a sense of how much money the separatists have raised versus the remain side? When you look at the disclosures right now, right now it says when you put all the separatist groups together, they've raised nearly $900,000. When you look at the pro-Canada side, they've raised about $289,000. So the delta is quite wide.

The only caveat that I would put on that is that Ferbercanade says it's outside third per year olds, so it doesn't have to disclose its finances. And Thomas Lekazek, the group's leader, has told us that he's raised about $500,000. We haven't been able to verify that number. But if that's the case, then there is an additional around $500,000 that's on the remain side that's not accounted for in elections, Alberta's disclosures. This may be a simple question, but why does it matter if a campaign has raised more money? Like, what does it represent for, I guess, the message and what it means for the referendum question?

Well, money matters a lot in campaigns, and that is to do things like advertising, on TV, on radio, on digital, and to do flyer drops, to pay for signs. All of these things cost a lot of money. And there are ways in which people build awareness that this campaign is happening, that they need to vote. And that on referendum day or on election day that they actually go out and vote. And I think, you know, as journalists, we're so in the weeds on this, right? We're so, you know, I've been thinking about October 19th now for months on end because it's my job. But if you are a soccer mom juggling back to school and three kids and extracurricular schedules and your own job and meal planning,

you don't have as much time to think about all these things. And so these campaigns are about reaching the average Albertan and the average Canadian and the average voter who they still want to get on vote even though this isn't sort of maybe their top priority in the day. And add to that, it's even more important in a campaign to be explaining and communicating when there's 10 different ballots. That's very confusing.

When the lineups might be so much longer, it is a confusing process and it's also a new process. It's not one that alberians have gone through before. And so there's a lot of hurdles for the average voter to get through in order to actually go out and vote. And so that's what these campaigns in theory are supposed to be addressing. And Matt mentioned earlier on that Alberta, the province, has said that it will be campaigning.

But our colleague Carrie Tate sent us a picture of some of the first advertising that the provincial government's putting out and it is emblazoned in large letters, vote to strengthen Alberta, something along those lines. And then in much smaller letters, almost as an asterisk, it's vote for a stronger Alberta within a United Canada. And when it's talking about those vote questions, it doesn't mention the referendum.

And so it's very oblique, very indirect, and not the kind of campaign that the Remain campaign says is needed to really make people alive to this issue and vote. On the on the topic of fundraising here and you've laid out here that like the the separatist side has raised more money, it's it's kind of fascinating to me because the poll numbers say that that there are a lot of people that support remain. So why aren't there more corporate, why isn't there more corporate involvement right now in funding the remain campaigns? Yeah, it's certainly been surprising. And it's actually not common across the country that corporations can donate, but in Alberta

you can. Federally, corporations cannot donate. And the thinking is that if you're a corporation, it's easier to donate the maximum of $5,000. But the experience of the people campaigning to keep Alberta and Canada is that it's actually very challenging to get corporations to donate. And most of their, like, by a mile, the vast majority of their donations are coming from individuals. And what Jason Kenney said is that it comes down to the fact that many businesses, associations, and organizations are conflicted. While some people or the majority of people might be in favor of Remain, there's enough people who will vote separatist that it will be a challenge for those organizations to take a stand and to donate for Remain or to come out and say very explicitly,

we support Alberta staying within Canada. When I was in Banff last week for the cabinet retreat, one person who runs an organization said that her organization simply can't put out a policy statement advocating for United Canada because not all members agree. And so again, while the majority in the polling do support remaining in Canada, there's a big enough group who are either sort of soft separatists or hardened separatists that it makes it challenging for these organizations. And Jason Kennedy, Stephen Carter, and others have all said, they've been surprised by how challenging it is to get corporations to donate and that it has been a more difficult grind than they anticipated.

I'll add to that too. The Business Council of Alberta had a press conference last weekend. It's President Adam Legg. I asked him directly if he thinks that there's hesitancy among corporations. And he said, yes, it's two things. One, what Marika just pointed out, which is that it's employees and the companies don't want to be offside with their employees or people on their board, whatnot. And then also their customer base, because a lot of these corporations are province-wide.

and they don't want to alienate their customer base. So it's on both sides of the ledger too. And that's coming from the group that represents a lot of corporations in Alberta. Let's talk about the involvement from political parties more broadly. I know we've kind of touched on it here and there, but let's kind of like really lay it out. So Marika, you mentioned the Alberta government ad campaign. But Matt, I want to ask you about where Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP fit into all of this.

Yeah, the UCP has a very unique situation. the Premier seems to be walking a bit of a tightrope right now. Polling has consistently shown that at least or around half of her United Conservancy Party base, especially the motivated ones, would be in favor of separation. There has been conflict in the party on the board about the party's stance and how they handle the question of separation, whether they even take a position in the referendum. And so the Premier has come out and said that she will be voting for the Remain side in the referendum on October 19th. when her ministers have been asked that question, how they're going to vote.

Some of them have said, told us directly, I'm going to vote to remain. Some of them have not answered the question at all. And you can see that tension in the party. So when Marika is pointing to the advertisement that the government started to put out last week, it seems oblique. The premier has even said that they will be focused on the nine other questions, which are focused on immigration and constitutionally. Sort of saying, therefore, that the res separation question will not be as prominent

a part of their campaign. So you both spoke to some of the leaders on the remains side. What do they want to see happen leading up to the vote? Marika, let's start with you. I think that many of them would like to see a stronger federal presence in the Alberta referendum. Ottawa has been very careful in what it will even tell us about what it is planning to do. But certainly people would like to see, at least some of the people, people in the Remain side would like to see Ottawa take a much more dominant presence. Others say that's

too risky and that instead the prime minister should continue what he's doing, which is to have a prominent presence in Alberta and to be really changing the policy landscape and therefore changing the economic landscape and the economic opportunities for Albertans and that that is the strongest way that he can play a role. You know, in the optimistic sense of it, Jason Kenney said maybe this will let a thousand flowers bloom and it will be successful. But on the other side of it, one source within the NDP said to me, you know, we'll only know on October 20th if this was enough. And that sort of speaks to the stakes here. We're not saying that the Remain side is going to lose this campaign, what we are saying is that how wide that margin of victory is really

matters in terms of what happens next. And it is not at all a given or a done deal for the people on the ground that that will be a decisive margin of victory or that voter turnout will be decisive. It's possible it will be, but they just don't know at this point what they're looking at. Matt? There seems to be, especially with the role that the provincial government Premier Smith and the liberals are playing, there seems to be a debate over whether policy changes and dramatic changes to, especially energy policy, are going to be enough to change people's minds or win people over in Alberta. And the margin victory is important because there's a bit of an open question in Alberta right now, but how long separatism will be a part of our political

discourse. And so Jason Kenney has said before that if this pro-separation vote gets around 35 to 40 percent, obviously higher. This will become a permanent part of our politics for the foreseeable future. Other people have said that regardless of what the number is, it could be stamped out. But the margin of victory is going to play a big role in whether this is a conversation that Alberta has in its politics for years and years to come. Marika, Matthew, thanks so much for joining me today. I really appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks for having us.

That was Marika Walsh, a senior political reporter for the globe and Matthew Skace, a Calgary-based reporter for the globe. And some news to share before we go. Manika Ramman Wilms is returning to the decibel. She'll be back in the hosting chair starting tomorrow. I want to take a minute to say that this past year has been such a highlight for me. It's been a pleasure getting to interview my wonderful colleagues and experts, but most importantly, it's been a privilege that you, our listeners, let me into your ears almost every day. Thank you so much for staying with the show and allowing our team to continue to bring you context on the big stories in the news. You'll still hear from me hosting from time to time and I'll continue working on the decibel as a producer.

So thank you and see you later. That's it for today. I'm Cheryl Sutherland. This episode was mixed by Rachel Levy McLaughlin. Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy McLaughlin and Mikhail Stein. Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening.