The Decibel - The new pipeline push in Canada

Episode Date: July 8, 2026

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been front and centre of two pipeline proposal announcements in the past week. First, she and Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new southern route for the proposed West Coast pipeline on Thursday. Just a few days later, on Monday, she and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a proposal for a new 3,300-kilometre pipeline that would carry crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario.  Emma Graney is the Globe’s energy reporter. She’s on the show to explain these two proposed projects, how likely it is they’ll be constructed, and what all this says about changing sentiments around pipelines in Canada.  Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Calgary Stampede is in full swing. The event is known to be the world's largest outdoor rodeo and as a place where politicians go to network and make deals. The government of Ontario is here today to unveil a potential route for a new 3,300-kilometer oil pipeline from Hardustee, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. On Monday, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, alongside Ontario Premier Doug Ford, announced the proposal of a new pipeline. Its route would span four provinces.

I heard about this the night before the actual announcement, and I thought I was being pranked. That's the Globe's energy reporter, Emma Graney. You know, and I went, there's no way. You guys are being silly, you crazy kids. And then sure enough, in the morning, here we go. We've got an west-to-east pipeline proposal being tabled by Premier Daniel Smith and Premier Doug Ford here in Calgary,

and they traded belt buckles as well. So I don't know how much more real you can get that when you're trading belt buckles. This announcement came just days after Alberta submitted a proposal for the West Coast pipeline to Ottawa's major projects office. With all this talk about pipelines, Emma is our guest today. She's going to talk us through these two proposed projects, how likely they are to happen, and what this all says about the changing sentiment

towards pipelines in Canada. I'm Cheryl Sutherland, and this is the Decibel from the Globe and Mail. Hi, Emma, great to have you back in the show. Hey, thank you so much. Pleasure to be here. So pipelines seem to be back, and we're talking about two new project proposals today. We're going to start with the most recent announcement,

which is this Alberta-Ontario proposed pipeline. What exactly is being proposed? Okay, so it's, It's a new 3,300 kilometre pipeline that would carry oil across four provinces. So from Hardesty here in Alberta to Sarnia in Ontario, it will be called the Northern Shield. It will be able to move roughly 500,000 barrels of oil a day. And the idea is really to kind of reduce Canada's reliance on foreign markets, specifically the US and pipelines going in and out of the United States.

So, you know, we have all of this oil in the West. The argument is it should be able to go directly east and get processed rather than having to go here, there and everywhere else before it hits the market. And what's the route that it would take? So it's going to go from Hardest-E Alberta. It's going to go across Saskatchewan, kind of down near Regina. It's going to go across Manitoba, so Winnipeg-ish region. Then it's kind of going to go swing up, do a bit of a loop around the lakes, and come down

it in Sarnia. Where did this idea of an Alberta-Ontario pipeline come from? Like, is this new? I mean, it's not a new proposal in the way that Energy East was put forward years and years and years and years ago. It is a very much a long dead project at this point, but it was going to go in a similar way, right? It was going to go from Alberta, but then it was going to go even further east. So this one kind of stops at Sarnia where there is a lot of. large processing hub, right? There's a lot of refineries there that can take the oil. So the idea is it's just going to take that route. But it has been a very long time since anyone proposed anything like that because Energy East, of course, faced some major opposition, major issues,

and it just never ended up happening. So this is new in the way that we haven't seen it since energy East died a long and protracted painful death. Just remind everyone about this Energy East proposal. What was that all about? Yeah, so this was proposed by TransCanada and it was to go from, yep, again, Alberta, all the way out east to take the oil across and then the idea was we'd be able to access foreign markets from the coast and make sure we can easily provide processing over there with Western oil rather than having to rely on oil from the United States or even oil coming from Western Canada, going through the heading south, going through the state, States and coming back up again. It's kind of removed the middleman, if you will.

But of course, as you said, Energy East is not something that went through. And that's why we don't have that pipeline. And I also understand that this project right now that's being proposed between Danielle Smith and Doug Ford, this was something they at least discussed before. At last Stampede, is that right? You are entirely correct. Yes. And at last Stampede, they swished bell buckles as well. Or rather, Alberta Premier Daniel Smith gave a new one to Doug Ford. There's a lot of bell buckles happen here at Stampede. But yeah, you're right. So this builds off of an MOU between Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario, which was signed last year. And the idea was, you know,

what, we're going to develop new energy and trade corridors and infrastructure. But you'll note who's not there, which is Manitoba. And now that's a bit of a pickle, right? Because Manitoba's right in the middle of this proposed pipeline route. So right now, Manitoba is not part of this MOU. It's certainly has not come out and said, great idea, everyone, we're on board with a pipeline ideas. So there is some unknowns as to whether or not Manitoba will end up supporting this project, specifically Premier Wab Khano, who hasn't been overly supportive of the idea of an East-West line going through Manitoba. He would much prefer to see development go up the north to Port of Churchill. And Premier Doug Ford did say yesterday, you know what, we could have a route

off of this pipeline that then shoots off up north, but you're looking then at going the entire length of Manitoba, and that's a massive project in and of itself. So whether or not Manitoba gets on board, we'll see. What about Saskatchewan? Oh, Saskatchewan is totally on board with this. Premier Scott Moe put out a statement on Monday saying, sweet, cool, let's do it. Okay, he didn't say that exactly. I am paraphrasing, but because it does build on that MOU that they'd already signed, And Scott Moe has been extremely into the idea of increasing oil production out of Saskatchewan, just like Premier Danielle Smith here in Alberta has wanted to double oil production rights. So I think the premiers look at this, you know, in Alberta and Saskatchewan as an idea that if we build another pipeline,

we can put more barrels out into the market and they can get somewhere relatively easily and relatively quickly. And then, of course, there's the federal government because this pipeline would cross provincial boundaries. There needs to be approval from Ottawa. What do we know about the federal government's stance on this? Yeah, I mean, there's not really any indication that the feds will support this. On Monday, my colleague Laura Stone and I, she helped report this story with me. We reached out to Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, and his office said that the West Coast pipeline is really the priority right now. I mean, his office didn't rule it out. they said the federal government is looking forward to reviewing the additional information about

the proposal, including the results of this feasibility study that Premier Ford says will be done by the end of the year. They also want to see the consultations that are done with Indigenous partners along this very, very long route. So they haven't said no, but they sure haven't said yes. Okay. What's the argument for this pipeline? Why do Smith and Ford say they needed? The big thing for Ontario was we're going to use only Canadian steel. So that's an economic argument. We're going to have manufacturing jobs. We're going to have construction jobs. So, you know, again, another economic argument. But the idea is really to reduce Canadian reliance on, you know, foreign oil. But it runs deeper than that. So the Sarnia region already gets most of its oil from Western Canada. But the pipeline systems in place means it largely heads south to the US. Then it comes. comes back up. And so in a way, this kind of places us at the mercy of the United States. The argument, therefore, for a pipeline in Canada is sovereignty, you can get the oil there, you're taking out the United States and any risks that may happen as a result of, you know,

a crumbling trade relationship. And you can therefore have the security of oil being processed and getting gasoline and getting all those other, you know, all of those other fuels that we do rely on every single day in this country. What do environmentalists and First Nations think about this proposal? I mean, this is a very new proposal and initial reactions that I was getting in terms of, you know, press releases and statements and a couple of folks that I spoke with, environmental organizations, indigenous organizations, some of them anyway, because there are a lot of First Nations that are very pro-resource development because it gives a lot of economic benefits. they're not super stoked with this idea.

I mean, the Pemberter Institute, which is an environmental kind of think tank, they do a lot of energy analyses and that kind of thing. And they said, you know, there just isn't also the business case for this. I mean, who is going to pay for it? And how are we going to fill it? Because this is going to require tens of billions of dollars of oil company money investments to expand their operations. in order to produce the extra oil that would be needed to fill this pipeline.

When you look at all the other projects that are currently in the mix here, we're talking about 2.2 million barrels a day extra of oil being produced just to fill. The projects are on the table, including the Embridge Mainline and the Trans Mountain Capacity upgrades that they're in the middle of doing right now or are close to doing. when you take into account this new Alberta, West Coast Pipeline, and then you look at this one as well. It's just a huge amount of extra oil that's going to have to be produced in order to fill all of those lines. So what you're saying is that there is not actual capacity here at this moment to be able to fill this pipeline? That is exactly what I'm saying, not even close.

I mean, you know, what's important to note, you know, there are a few pipeline projects underway or proposed and close. to being real than this one is. And together, they're going to require 2.2 million barrels a day of extra oil production. So now you want to add another 500,000 barrels into the mix. And, you know, the Premier said yesterday that this could even increase to 800,000 barrels to be capacity on this line. So that is an awful lot of money that oil company is going to have to spend, largely in the oil sands to kind of expand their operations. And I listen to a lot of earnings calls. and oil companies do not seem to be chomping at the bid to spend that kind of cash. So this will take a lot of money, not just to build the pipeline, which would be tens of billions of dollars in and of itself, but then the oil companies would have to spend that money as well in order to fill the line.

So this is not just a drop in the bucket. This is a massive fiscal commitment. So after laying this all out when we're talking about this Alberta, Ontario pipeline, how likely is it to go ahead, at this point at least? Look, I don't have a crystal ball. I wish I did. But to be real, there are so, so many unknowns here. How much it might cost? Who's going to pay for it? Who's going to fill it? And whether Manitoba will even come to the table and allow this to happen. I mean, Premier Ford says Ontario is looking at potential costs and it's planning to complete a feasibility study for this proposal by the end of the year. But there is so much. We just don't know that I think it would be wild to make a possible. call either way right now because you can't make a call yes or no off of what we know, which is

honestly not that much. We'll be right back. So the second pipeline proposal we're going to talk about is this West Coast pipeline. Very quickly, can you remind us of this project and how it began? Yeah, for sure. So this is a proposal for a new one million barrel a day pipeline from Alberta to the west coast of BC. The idea here is to give Alberta more access to global markets.

for its oil. That means that Alberta gets a better price for its oil. It also means it can find new customers. And it's looking in particular to Asia where there are really massive growing markets, growing consumption. And some of those countries might also be looking to reduce their reliance on Middle Eastern oil. With everything that's been happening in Iran and the war and the closure of the Strait of Almuz, a lot of Asian markets rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil. So now you've got countries kind of casting their eyes to other places. And Alberta, and indeed, the federal government as well, has said, we want in on that. We want a slice of the pies. So the idea is get it from Alberta, get it to the West Coast, put it in a tanker, off you go to Asia.

Okay, so there was this MOU signed between Alberta and Ottawa in November of 2025. So we've heard about this project for a while. And so the recent update here is that this project has now been submitted to the major projects office. What does that change? I mean, it is quite a significant step. You know, it makes it more real, I would say, is the best way to sum that up. Alberta wants to get this classified as a project of national significance by October. I mean, that's a very short timeline. But months of negotiations went into this. And I've been speaking, you know, with a lot of sources as I've been reporting on this. And one of the really interesting comments that was made to me was along the lines of there were so many doubters who were like,

this thing's never going to happen. And now those same doubters have turned around and go, ooh, who's the proponent going to be? And are actually believing it to be real now as well. And I thought that was a really interesting comment. And I think sums up where that proposal is at in that it has seemed to be a lot more real now. So a new route is being proposed for this pipeline from what Alberta originally was looking at. This is a southern route. Why was that route changed? So it is really interesting that Alberta did change to a southern route.

So initially, Premier Smith has been very gung-ho about a northern route, kind of going from Alberta, going across to northern BC, because up there, it's much closer to Asia in terms of shipping times. It's also much deeper port. So you can bring in these tankers called very large crude carriers. they're what the market wants in order to ship to Asia because they carry a very large amount of crude. But in the end, the southern route is the one that Alberta has gone with. And the reason that they've done that is that, well, the federal government was extremely insistent that it should be a southern route.

There are a few reasons for that. You know, the idea of perhaps there will be less opposition to it. You're actually going along a route that has been, you know, largely already disturbed. I mean, the two main rooting options that have been submitted by Alberta to the major projects office, they generally follow the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline system for much of their length. And, you know, they're largely along or within about 300 metres of disturbed land or existing infrastructure. And then it will end at Roberts Bank, which is on the south side of the Fraser River estuary, south of Vancouver, where this huge port development is being planned.

So the idea is, let's go south, it'll be easier. that in the end is what they're doing. And if I understand correctly, this new route doesn't have to contend with the BC tanker ban. That is correct. Yeah. So that northern route also did throw up a massive challenge in that way. There was already a lot of opposition from coastal first nations about this idea of having a pipeline. And there is that tanker ban in place. So that's a federal ban. It bars the loading and unloading of oil along that section of coast. So that would have to be overturned by the federal government. And that was a complete non-starter for the British Columbia government who just said absolutely not. Like, you can't be doing that. That is, that is a no-go zone.

So that's another big reason that the southern route is the one that Alberta has ended up proposing here. Speaking of BC, BC was opposed to the previous route for this pipeline. What have they said about this new proposal? You know, Premier E.B has said, well, you know, you can't really stop it. It's out of his power. But what is really a... interesting here is that British Columbia has also secured a bunch of concessions on its major projects and on things it needs to get done, kind of in exchange for supporting this, or at least allowing it. It's kind of, they've got this MOU sign. There's a bit of a quid pro quo thing happening here. And so at the end of the day, you know, the British Columbia government

generally is not supportive of a new pipeline. I don't think anybody would say that what they have supported and do support, in fact, is increasing the capacity on the trans mountain line, and that's work that is, or at least, you know, applications are in to do that now. The idea of a new pipeline, a little harder for them to stomach, but they are getting support for some of the major projects like a northern transmission line and the Massey Tunnel, which is kind of falling apart under the river there. So I think at the end of the day, they're going to have to hold their nose, I guess, and bear it.

Yeah, and just to say that the MOU that BC signed about these projects, was just before this proposal that was submitted by Danielle Smith to the major project's office. Yes, exactly. The timing was quite a wild ride on that day, trying to keep our eyes on all of the events that were happening. What do we know about other opposition to this project? I mean, the opposition that I have heard has been largely the folks who were not supportive of the initial Transmountain pipeline as it was. We've had environmental groups saying this is just not a great idea. The world is pivoting away from oil. We shouldn't be spending

billion dollars on a new pipeline in order to just provide more oil to the market. Some indigenous groups have also been opposed to it, some First Nations, but other First Nations definitely do support it. And there is, again, it seems to be that there is some almost acceptance that this has been put there. This is now a real proposal. and maybe it won't get as hard of a run as the Trans Mountain expansion did. Here I am saying that, you know, there's going to be method of protests. And of course, this isn't going to be easy for anyone. There will be court challenges for this.

Absolutely, there will be. But the hope is, again, by going a southern route, by taking land that's already disturbed, by going through a place that has already got a pipeline through it, that there will be less opposition to it. A major hurdle of this project from the get-go here is who's going to pay for it, right? Is there any private sector backing at this point? Yes, I would say it's very interesting to hear who is going to be backing this project, because the initial idea and the vibe, I would say, that we're getting from the Alberta government is there's going to be a private

backer here. It could be a consortium of companies, it could be a consortium of companies and, you know, indigenous corporations as well. What's actually happened that's been proposed, And this could change, is that Trans Mountain is going to be the lead developer and operator. They are, of course, federally owned. I mean, they own the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which was bought by the federal government. And then Pembina pipelines, which is a private company, they've signed up for about 10% of this deal. And I would say Pemberna does have some stipulations in its support for this 10% backing, but that's where we're out right now.

90% federally owned via Trans Mountain, 10% Permanent Pipelines. That could change down the road. Whether or not it does, we shall see because Embridge, which is a massive pipeline company, Southbow, which is a big pipeline company, neither of them have really stepped up and said, yeah, we want to be part of this. In fact, Embridge's CEO has repeatedly said, we are not a proponent, and we don't want to be shouldering the risk of this project. So Heather will get another private backer, if they'll get more private backers,

does remain to be seen. So we talked about the Ontario-Alberta pipeline, kind of being a pipe dream at this point. That was very good. Thank you. Thank you very much. So is this pipeline anywhere closer to reality with this new proposal?

I would say that the West Coast pipeline is closer to reality because there is actually a real proposal on the table that has gone to the major projects office. There have been months of negotiations between the Alberta government and the federal government on this. It is real. There is a map, like a map with actual, you know, some details in it,

as opposed to a brochure that we got this week for the Eastern pipeline that is now on the table. But I would say it is a lot more real, just by virtue of the fact that they've got some stuff on paper now. It doesn't mean it will happen. I mean, nobody can say for sure that a pipeline in Canada will ever happen. I think history has taught us that. To end here, Emma, it seems like we're in a moment where pipelines are seen as more appealing,

at least to some governments, and you've covered energy for a long time. What is this moment telling you about how the conversation around pipelines is shifting? It is really interesting because it used to be that there was massive opposition to any idea of a pipeline. and it would be pretty much immediate and it would be, it would be big and it would be loud. And I'm not saying there's no opposition to these ideas. They're most certainly is opposition to these. But it does seem as though right now that there is more of a focus on trying to boost Canada's economy. Certainly a lot of Canadians have seen what's happened with the United States and the trade war.

And the idea of Canada making its own stuff and being self-reliant, it just seems to be more of the zeitguise than it has been in a very long time. And I think that has really shifted the public perception of pipelines and whether or not they should go ahead. And certainly when you look at any poll that's been done in the last year, year and a half, and that was even before the war in Iran and what happened with global markets completely shifting there. you know, they do show market increase in public support for pipelines. That has not changed any time in the last few months. So there is definitely a shift. Whether or not that shift remains because pipelines, let's not forget. They're extremely long time projects here. It's not as though you announce one and then you build it tomorrow. So whether or not that support remains, you know, we will see. But it does seem to be a much different vibe around pipelines and it has been

in a long time. Emma, I appreciate this. Thank you so much. Always a pleasure. I'm going to go back to Stampede and do some hootin, hollering and Yahoo! And that was Emma Graney, the Globe's Energy Reporter. That's it for today. I'm Cheryl Sutherland. This episode was mixed by Tiff Lamb. Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy McLaughlin and Mihal Stein. Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening.