The Decibel - The threat of Hezbollah joining the Israel-Hamas war

Episode Date: October 19, 2023

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon, is seen as a serious threat to the Israel-Hamas war. There are fears the group, considered the most powerful non-state actor in the world, c...ould dramatically escalate the conflict if it joins the fight against Israel.Nathan Vanderklippe, international correspondent for the Globe, is on the show to explain Hezbollah’s influence, its ties to Hamas and how Lebanon factors into potentially being swept up in the war.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at thedecibel@globeandmail.com

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hi, it's Mainika. Before today's episode, I just want to let you know that the Globe and Mail's new podcast, In Her Defense, is now the number one podcast in Canada on Apple Podcasts. So if you haven't checked it out yet, you should listen. It's a story about what happens when the victim becomes the accused. It's told in eight episodes by Globe reporter Jana Pruden. You can follow and subscribe to In Her Defense wherever you listen to The Decibel. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden visited Israel to reaffirm the U.S.'s support for the country. I come to Israel with a single message. You're not alone. You are not alone. Biden's visit came just after an explosion at a Gazan hospital on Tuesday. Hundreds are reportedly dead.
Starting point is 00:00:58 Who's responsible for this blast is still being disputed by both Israel and Palestinian authorities. U.S. intelligence suggests that Israel is not responsible. In response to the explosion, people across the Middle East took to the streets in protest, including in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Lebanon is a country many are watching closely as this war continues. And that's where The Globe's international correspondent Nathan Vanderclip has been for the past week. I think one of the questions, one of the important questions that's been raised since October 7, since these horrific attacks that took place on Israel, is whether we end up with a second front in this war.
Starting point is 00:01:45 Israel shares its northern border with Lebanon. One of the potential outcomes there is for a renewed war with Hezbollah, which is this militant group in Lebanon. Hezbollah has an armament that far exceeds that of Hamas in Gaza. And a renewed war between Hezbollah and Israel would stand to be a much more fearsome thing than even what we've seen between Israel and Gaza in the last 12 days. So today, Nathan helps us understand the Hezbollah factor. I spoke with Nathan Wednesday late afternoon his time.
Starting point is 00:02:20 I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms, and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Nathan, thank you so much for joining me today. Thanks for having me. So, Nathan, you've been in Lebanon for about a week now. I guess I'm just wondering, what is the mood like there? Well, it's interesting. It's defiant, I think, is one way to describe it. I spent some time yesterday near the border with Israel and was struck just by how many people remained in place. There are some, of course, who have left, and there are now schools in one of the nearby cities
Starting point is 00:03:01 that have begun to fill with people who have left from the border and others have relocated families away to Beirut and other places. But there's still actually a fair number of people who remain in place. And I think that's a sign of just the degree to which there's a feeling of defiance and anger toward Israel. There's a real tremendous sense of solidarity as well between people here and the people of Gaza. There were protests that erupted very quickly after this news came out of this bombing of this hospital in Gaza, thousands of people on the streets. And we've seen the sense of solidarity being voiced by Hezbollah, by political leaders and by people on the streets as well.
Starting point is 00:03:48 And so what have we actually seen take place along the Israel-Lebanon border? There have been clashes, but I guess what form have those been taking? Exchange of artillery, exchange of anti-tank missiles from Hezbollah towards Israel. We've heard gunfire erupting. There's been shelling. There have been people dying every day, civilians, a journalist for Reuters, Hezbollah fighters. There have been several attempts from this side to have people either place explosives on the border or get through the border and into Israel. And so there's a repeated sort of tit-for-tat hostilities. And then we've seen on the Israel side, we've seen the clearance now of all people living within five kilometers of the border, which effectively is an expansion of the theater of war
Starting point is 00:04:34 or the theater of conflict, which might be a better term for it, along that border. At the outset, people were living right next to the border. Now on the Israel side, at least, civilians have been cleared out from within five kilometers. And then I think that's expanded the area in which some fighting can and probably will take place. So help me understand here, Nathan, why is fighting happening near the Lebanese border? Because, of course, Israel is at war with Hamas, which is concentrated in the Gaza Strip. So how did the fighting erupt near Lebanon? Well, Hamas and Hezbollah share a sponsor. They're both sponsored
Starting point is 00:05:10 in terms of training, in terms of equipment, and in terms of money by Iran. And so there's a real sense of common purpose between the two groups. And the Palestinians are part of a Lebanese society. After the establishment of the State of Israel, many Palestinians ended up in Lebanon. There are people here who trace their roots here until 1948. And there's at least a quarter million people who live in Palestinian camps here inside Lebanon. And so there's a great sense of common purpose between the two. So what happens in Gaza is followed very, very closely here. There's also a real sense of enemies in common between Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are dedicated to the elimination of the state of Israel.
Starting point is 00:05:58 And so just to clarify, so you mentioned that fighting started on the Lebanese border on October 7th, which is the same day as the Hamas attacks in southern Israel, right? So that same day we actually saw clashes on the northern border of Israel then. Yeah, although we have seen clashes on that northern border sporadically for a long, long time. But what we have seen since October 7 is an intensification of those clashes. So, Nathan, I think it's important here to just to ask you, you know, what is Hezbollah? Can you tell me about this group? Well, I mean, I think the scholars would call it a non-state actor, basically an armed group that is not a country considered the most powerful non-state
Starting point is 00:06:37 actor in the world right now. It has quite a fearsome armament, something like at least 130,000 rockets, guided missiles, gunboats, drones, all sorts of armaments. And it was founded in the midst of a very lengthy civil war inside of Lebanon. And in the midst of that chaos, which involved several periods of Israeli attacks inside Lebanon, Hezbollah was founded with the backing of the state of Iran. That would have been in the early 80s, basically. In the early 80s, that's right, 1982. And since then has grown considerably, both in its military power, but also in its influence. It's part of the political fabric here. They and parties allied with them are part of the parliamentary system here. It's also part
Starting point is 00:07:25 of the social fabric. There are well-regarded hospitals that are run by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been a source of funding for rebuilding after previous conflicts and that sort of thing. And so it's a major part of Lebanese society. And what about Hezbollah's ideology, Nathan? What can you tell us about that? Well, it is dedicated to the eradication of the state of Israel. That's a major element of its ideology. It's a Shiite movement, a Shiite Muslim movement. It is talked about expelling Western powers from Lebanon. And that extends to, I think, in very personal terms. I mean, one of the things at the protest, the Hezbollah protests that you see are posters of Qasem Soleimani, who is the Iranian military leader who was who was killed by the United States.
Starting point is 00:08:18 So there's a real sense of kinship there. And so you said Iran backs this group. Then can can you explain why? For Iran, Hezbollah is part of its defensive apparatus. And one of the things that Iran wants to do is to protect itself from the state of Israel. Iran has a nuclear program that, of course, has been on and off in terms of its development. And it wants to protect itself, protect its nuclear program from aggression from the state of Israel. And when we say backed by Iran, so Iran is
Starting point is 00:08:51 actually sending funds to Hezbollah every year then, correct? Considerable funds, yeah. And one of the interesting questions for Hezbollah at the current moment is, if it were to engage in a larger war with Israel, what would that mean as far as its domestic standing inside of Lebanon? This is a group that has been faulted for being a force against reform in the midst of some of these broader problems that have come here in the last couple of years, political and economic problems. And so there's a sense that its public perception has been waning. And if it is seen to be kicking off another war with Israel, of course, that could prove very destructive for Lebanon. And could that be domestically damaging to Hezbollah in Lebanon? And I think the answer to that is probably yes. And I think the other answer to that is probably it doesn't matter that
Starting point is 00:09:42 if Iran orders Hezbollah to engage, Hezbollah will engage. OK, so what is what is the concern over Hezbollah entering this conflict? The concern is that it's a potent adversary. I mean, Israel, of course, has a very high tech military. They have very sophisticated air power and other expressions of military power. But Hezbollah has increased, particularly since Israel and Hezbollah went to war in 2006. Since then, Hezbollah has considerably improved its own arsenal. I mentioned the number of rockets. I mean, 130,000 rockets is enough to put a tremendous amount in the air at one time.
Starting point is 00:10:22 Israel has this Iron Dome you may have heard of, which is this vaunted air defense system. If you put enough rockets in the air, chances are you're going to get through. It has quite a sophisticated arsenal and it has some of its own air defenses, which is, again, something that Hamas doesn't have. Israel can operate quite comfortably over Gaza, knowing that its own projection of air power will be relatively safe there. So actually more concern then over engaging in a conflict with Hezbollah than the conflict with Hamas then? Considerably more, yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:58 And the other thing is, I mean, when we're talking about, they have sub-ballistic missiles. They have weapons with the ability to attack not just the border areas, but to attack Israel's main cities, to send missiles toward Tel Aviv, to target electrical and water infrastructure, to target the sort of the bridges and roads and those sorts of things that Israel would in turn be targeting inside of Lebanon. So a full scale war between Hezbollah and the state of Israel is a genuinely serious matter. And we've seen it treated as such. I mean, there's a reason why the U.S. has dispatched not one, but two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean. And part of that is out of concern over what rising hostilities with Hezbollah could mean. We'll be right back. Let me ask you a little bit more about the relationship between Lebanon and Israel,
Starting point is 00:11:58 because you said there was kind of, since 2006, the last 17 years, a little bit more stability there. But yeah, what has the relationship been between the two countries over the past decade or so? Over the last decade, it's had this sort of relative sense of calm, at least in military terms. I think if you cast back farther, I mean, there have been a series of wars between the two countries. And in some ways, there are parts of Lebanon that are defined by the conflict with Israel. One of the places that I visited this week was Kana, which is a small village in the south of Lebanon. And it's a place where there is a memorial.
Starting point is 00:12:42 During fighting in 1996, there were people who gathered inside of a UN compound. That compound was then shelled by the Israelis and more than 100 people died. And it's been kept as a memorial in some ways that are quite visceral. If you go inside, they have pictures posted and you can see bodies alongside blankets where people had been taking refuge. And if you go outside, you can actually go into the building that came under attack. And those exact same blankets are still lying there. Blankets that were placed there in 1996, the same blankets still lying there. And I think that's a suggestion of the degree to which some of those things remain relevant to the ways that people think about themselves and think about Israel. So there's a long history of conflict and distress.
Starting point is 00:13:29 But that said, there had been really optimistic signs. I mean, earlier this year, Lebanon and Israel and Lebanon with the backing of Hezbollah came to an agreement on offshore natural gas exploration. There had been a longstanding dispute over the boundaries that would govern natural gas and if it was discovered and who could profit from it and that sort of thing. And there'd actually been some resolution to that, which had been quite a striking bit of progress. And I would think that much of that momentum now is certainly in question. In the midst of all of this, Nathan, of course, are the people of Lebanon, right? And I know that you've spoken to people in the country.
Starting point is 00:14:09 So what have they been telling you about the potential here about being pulled into a war with Israel? It's hard to know because people will tell you that they feel a real sense of solidarity with the people of Gaza. They want to express that in really tangible ways. And so people will say, we are prepared to die, or what's the worst that could happen if there's war? We could just die. And it's hard to know what's rhetoric and what is real, but there is, at least in the ways people express themselves, a real sort of hardness toward Israel and softness towards Gaza. And there's an expression of a willingness to sacrifice on behalf of the Palestinians. What's happening in Gaza is being followed incredibly closely here.
Starting point is 00:14:59 Yeah. And of course, Lebanon is also going through a pretty tough economic time, right? I mean, inflation is really high. It's still reeling from that explosion in 2020 in the port of Beirut. And so, of course, it is hard to generalize, Nathan, but is the feeling here that people in Lebanon would support Hezbollah if Hezbollah was to get involved here in what's going on between Israel and Gaza? Do we have a sense, I guess, of public support for that? I think past experience would suggest that if Hezbollah was involved, it would be involved in a way that would allow it to make the case that it had been drawn in, that it was responding to
Starting point is 00:15:38 some aggression and that it was doing so in defense of the country of Lebanon. And I think so if Hezbollah was seen as defending the country against Israeli aggression, I think there's every reason to believe that at that moment anyways, there would be a great deal of support from that. Now, if the country experienced a great amount of destruction, what that would mean as far as Hezbollah support down the road, there are certainly analysts who would suggest that it could hurt their domestic standing. But I think in the event of a war, people certainly tend to rally behind those they see as defending them. Yeah. I mean, there is a lot on the line here for Lebanon if they do get involved.
Starting point is 00:16:15 I guess, why would Hezbollah want to get involved in this war? We talked a little bit too about how it's backed by Iran and the motivations there. But yeah, what really would be the reason for them to get involved? Yeah, I think, and part of the answer to that question, I think, is why would Iran want to get involved in this? And one reason would be for Iran to want to act to protect another of its assets, which is Hamas, if there is a sense that Israeli actions came close to succeeding in what Israel has said it wants to achieve, which is the elimination of Hamas, is that something that Iran is prepared to accept? And if it's not prepared to accept, how can it use Hezbollah
Starting point is 00:16:57 to begin to attack from the north in a way that might prove helpful for Hamas. And so that's one answer. Hezbollah itself has shown this degree of solidarity with Hamas. And I think we have seen that expressed in some of this rise in hostilities that we've seen. But as far as Hezbollah's incentive to go into a full-scale war, I mean, this is one of the questions that people are really asking. And there are people who will tell you Hezbollah has zero incentive to go into a full blown war with Israel, because it is going to be massively damaging to Hezbollah. And it will, in fact, be massively damaging to Iran's investment in building up Hezbollah as a force for the defense of the country of Iran. And, you know, it's one thing to expend a military force in defense of your own borders. And is Iran willing to do that in defense of Hamas, which exists far outside of its borders?
Starting point is 00:17:56 And there are certainly people who would say the answer is no. What has Iran said about this? Have they made any statement about if Hezbollah would get involved or not? There's been lots of discussion about the possibility of another front emerging. And we've seen statements from Iran that are suggesting that there will be a response, that a second front could open. Lots of dancing around this question, lots of threatening language. At this point in time, I don't know that that language has been reflected on the ground. We have seen an increase in hostilities. We have seen an increase in the severity and the
Starting point is 00:18:35 deadliness of clashes. But certainly, this is a swelling of those things as opposed to an enormous escalation. Just lastly here, Nathan, given all that we've talked about, and I know you've been talking to experts as well about this, what is the likelihood that Hezbollah will get involved? Well, they're already involved in a sense, but it's a limited sense. And I think part of the answer to that rides on what does Israel do? If all of these troops that Israel has amassed are used for some sort of very significant ground invasion, very destructive ground invasion, does Iran see that as grounds for a greater response from the north? And then the other question is, you know, what happens? We've seen what happens when a hospital is attacked and the enormous sort of regional outcry that something like that can produce.
Starting point is 00:19:29 What happens if something like that happens along the Israeli-Lebanese border? And what sort of conflict does that sort of generate? My sense from the people that I have spoken to is that at this point, certainly we've heard from Lebanese political leadership, which I should point out does not control Hezbollah, but Lebanese political leadership has been fairly clear in saying that it does not want to enter a war with Israel. And I think the indications from Hezbollah that we've seen so far, as far as its conduct on the ground, are that it also does not want to enter a war with Israel. But Israel's response to Gaza is not yet complete. And there's every possibility
Starting point is 00:20:08 that there will be a different kind of response based upon what Israel does. Nathan, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today. Thanks for having me. That's it for today. I'm Naina Karaman-Wilms. Our producers are Madeline White, Cheryl Sutherland, and Rachel Levy-McLaughlin.
Starting point is 00:20:29 David Crosby edits the show. Adrienne Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pachenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.

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