The Decibel - Ukraine’s breakthrough on the battlefield

Episode Date: October 6, 2022

The Ukrainian military has made substantial advancements in two regions of the country in the past few days. Those gains come as Russian President Vladimir Putin formalizes his annexation of four regions of Ukraine, where young male residents live in fear that they might be conscripted into the Russian army.The Globe’s Janice Dickson is in Kyiv and has been travelling to different regions of the country for the past two weeks. She tells us how people in the annexed territories are feeling, and what the new advancements could mean for the ongoing war.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail]

Hi, I'm Maina Karaman-Wilms, and you're listening to The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Ukrainian forces have made substantial military advances in the last few days. We're seeing the Ukrainian forces recapture several villages along the Dnipro River, which was their biggest breakthrough in the south. And in the east, the Ukrainians recaptured the key city of Liman and are expanding their offensive in that area. The Globe's Janice Dixon has spent the past two weeks reporting in Ukraine. And losing Liman was a big defeat, in part because Russian forces had been using it as a logistics and transportation center for its operations in the north of Donetsk.

These advances are happening in the shadow of Russia's illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine. And now that Ukraine's military is advancing in those areas, there's concern about how Russian President Vladimir Putin might retaliate. We spoke to Janice on Wednesday from Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. This is The Decibel. Janice, it's so great to see you. Thank you so much for doing this. Thanks very much for having me. So Janice, you're in Kiev right now. What is it like there? What have you been noticing in the city? Well, in some ways it feels very normal. Restaurants are busy. There's a lot of people out in the streets. But at the same time,

the Kyiv City Council said that it's providing iodide pills to evacuation centers in the event of a nuclear attack. And these pills can help block the absorption of harmful radiation by the thyroid gland if taken just before or immediately after exposure to nuclear radiation. So it's really a city of contrast right now, I'd say. And there are still air raid alerts here, which is a regular reminder of what's going on in the rest of the country, even though it feels safe here in the city. How have people there been reacting to the news that Ukraine has made these military breakthroughs? I mean, people here are obviously very glad to see the Ukrainian forces make these advances. And they are significant. I mean, we're seeing Ukrainian troops make breakthroughs in two separate battlefields. And it's really huge. The other important thing to mention is that Ukraine is liberating regions

that Russia has claimed to have annexed just a few days ago. Even today, Putin had signed documents saying that it had become official that Russia was annexing these four regions, which are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. But it's a completely different reality from what's actually happening on the ground. I know you spoke to a military strategist in Ukraine. What did they have to say about how significant these breakthroughs actually are? So, yes, that's right. point, we've read and watched Putin's mobilization plan sort of play out online with complete chaos and Russians fleeing for other countries after he announced that he would call up some 300,000 reservists to fight. And there's been a lot of commentary about how the Ukrainian army is making

these gains in advance of when all of these men will arrive in Ukraine. But the strategist I talked to said that, you know, while Russia will try to use this additional manpower to hold onto the territory it's occupying currently, there's no guarantee they'll be successful. He said that the arriving troops will lack equipment and training and logistical support. His comment was that it's just prolonging the agony of Russia in the territory of Ukraine because they're not properly equipped and because currently also Russian troops are suffering so terribly. And we're also also we've been hearing

reports about Russian men trying to leave the country not wanting to be drafted. I guess, is there a question of morale and how badly these troops may want to fight or not fight? No, absolutely. I think that's a really good point. And if morale is low, that could lead to a whole other host of problems. If you have, you know, a group of men who don't want to be here, how effective will they be? Yeah. What's been the reaction that we've seen so far from Russia, Janice? Like, how have they responded? And how has President Vladimir Putin, I guess, responded to this loss of territory? Yeah, well, we definitely saw frustration mounting over the weekend as Ukraine started making all of these gains, particularly in the east. of Putin's called for a change of strategy right up to, and this is a quote, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low yield nuclear weapons. So that

was a direct call from him and I think gives a sense of the feeling in Russia. We'll be right back. We were talking to Mark McKinnon two weeks ago, and that was just after Putin announced these referendums for annexing these four regions. How did we get to this point to where we're at today? That's right. So last month, after Ukraine forced to vote on whether they wanted to join Russia. And I interviewed dozens of Ukrainians fleeing the occupied areas in Ukrainian-held Zaporizhia who said that armed soldiers came to their door and forced them to vote. I spoke to this one woman, Elvira, who's 30, and she told me that soldiers didn't get to her at her house, but that they did go to her 80-year-old grandmother's house,

who told her, how can I resist people with guns? I mean, people were forced to vote yes. So Putin delivered a big speech last week, declaring these four regions as officially part of Russia. And then even today, he signed documents further enshrining, according to Russia, these areas into Russia. But at the same time, the reality is much different in Ukraine, where troops are continuing to make progress and advances and recapture some territory from Russia that it's claimed as its own. What happens to those areas now, Janice?

In terms of what's happening on the ground in those areas, Russia is trying to mobilize men of conscription age, so young men generally, to fight in its war effort. And last week, I went to Zaporizhia, where there's a gathering area of Ukrainians that are fleeing the occupied areas. And I talked to them about the referendum process and the fear around, you know, men or male relatives being drafted in Russia's war effort. So, sorry, these are Ukrainian men in areas of Ukraine that Russia is occupying, and they're being drafted for Russia to fight against Ukraine? That's right. Wow.

Yeah. I met a man and his mom who had fled a Russian-occupied area together to Zaporizhia. And he had told me that he made up a story that his mom needed surgery. And so that was the way that they could talk their way through Russian checkpoints. And his mom, who was incredibly tearful and upset, said that, you know, she was at the dentist office when she heard about these referendums, and her hands were shaking as she thought about the prospect of her son being taken to Russia's mobilization campaign. Wow. This is really, it's scary stuff for a lot of people, I would imagine. Yeah, absolutely. What about life, I guess, life in those occupied regions? We've been talking about, you know, men worried about being on people who have not been able to leave

those areas yet and talked to this guy who's 26 and told me that he basically doesn't leave his house because he's so fearful of being drafted and is at home watching videos of, you know, soldiers taking young men away and that they never come back. And he's heard from a few people who have gone and they haven't returned. So I think that it's, I think that people would live with a lot of fear there right now. Yeah. And do we have a sense, I just wonder if we can get the number in too, of how much of Ukraine is Russia actually trying to lay claim to here? It's nearly 18% of the country. So we're talking about almost a fifth of the country then.

That's right. But they don't actually fully control any of those areas. So when I mentioned Zaporizhia, for example, I was in the north, which is the Ukrainian-held territory. And then the south is where Russia is controlling the region. So it's important to make that distinction. The last time the Ukrainian army had a successful counteroffensive in September in Kharkiv, Putin's response, his retaliation, was to call that referendum that we talked about and threaten to use nuclear arms. Do we have any sense of how Putin may react this time? I think that is the big question right now, and is what is causing so much angst and worry is how he will respond. Because he has faced, his military has faced significant setbacks. He has said that he would, or Russia would, defend these annexed regions as their own land and use whatever tools are at their disposal, which could mean nuclear weapons. And it's very unpredictable how he'll respond. A lot of this can sound pretty dire, Janice, but at the same time, it's not all doom and gloom.

Because I know that you were in Chernihiv a few days ago, and you were talking to some younger people there in their 20s and their 30s. Can you tell me what was going on? Yes. So that is a great note to end on because on the weekend I spent a couple hours or I spent the whole afternoon with these 20 year olds who used to organize bar crawls and parties for tourists in Kiev and are now bringing that energy to clean up parties of homes and buildings destroyed by Russian attacks. And so they blast music, they work and clean to rhythm, they have borscht and lunch breaks to music. They were listening to Justin Bieber on the weekend. Yeah, and techno and just like absolutely everything under the sun. And it was just really inspiring to see. And I met the gentleman of the home that they were cleaning. And gosh, I mean, he was completely devastated to have left, to have lost his home.

His dog died in the attack. But to see him, you know, also watch all of these young kids clean everything up and bring their energy. It was just quite, quite remarkable to see. That's amazing. Wow. Janice, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today. Thanks very much for having me. Please stay safe there. Thank you. That's it for today. I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms. Our producers are Madeline White, Cheryl Sutherland, and Rachel Levy-McLaughlin. David Crosby edits the show. Kasia Mihailovic is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.