The Decibel - Ukrainian refugees fled to Poland. Now thousands are leaving

Episode Date: October 2, 2023

When Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 2022, millions of Ukrainians fled the country. Many went to the neighbouring country of Poland, which welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees. But now, things are changing, in part because of a contentious election in Poland. Thousands of Ukrainians are now leaving Poland, and setting up their lives somewhere else.Today, The Globe’s European Correspondent Paul Waldie tells us why tensions between Poland and Ukraine are growing and why support for Ukrainians fleeing the war is waning.Questions? Comments? Ideas? E-mail us at [e-mail]

When Russia first invaded Ukraine a year and a half ago, a lot of Ukrainians fled to Poland. The Polish government welcomed Ukrainians fleeing the war and provided them with help and benefits. But now, things are changing, in part because of a contentious election campaign in Poland, and Ukrainians are leaving the country by the thousands. Today, I'm joined by The Globe's Europe correspondent, Paul Waldie. He'll tell us where refugees are going now and why support for Ukrainians fleeing the war is waning. I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Paul, it's so great to have you back on the show.

Hi there. Good to be here. Let's just start with the numbers here. How many people have actually fled Ukraine since Russia invaded in February of last year? Initially, there were about 8 million or so Ukrainians who left the country immediately after the full-scale invasion. Right now, there's about 6 million Ukrainians who still live outside the country as an awful lot went back in the past year or so. It's a huge exodus of people. I think it's the largest refugee or migration in European history, or certainly since the Second World War. So it was a big number, and there's still a lot of people out of the country that need care and need support.

Yeah. We know, of course, a lot of them ended up in Poland. Do we know how many exactly ended up in Poland? Right now, there's about a million in Poland. There was a slightly larger number immediately after the full-scale invasion. It was about 1.2, 1.3. But now it's just under a million, about 900, 1,000. Okay. And why Poland? Like what brought so many Ukrainians to that country? Well, there's a couple of reasons.

One, geography. It's right next door. And of course, if you're leaving by land, as all of these people were, Poland is likely the first place you're going to come to, or certainly one of the first countries you're going to come to. Secondly, there was already a very large population of Ukrainians in Poland. It had been a desirable place for Ukrainians to go and work. So there was about a million odd Ukrainians living in Poland. So there were family connections, there were relatives, and there was a sense that the culture was the same. The languages aren't identical or in any way, shape or form, but they're reasonably similar. So there was a feeling that Poland of all places was going to be the easiest place for a lot of these people to go. And I know, Paul, you've actually spoken to a lot of Ukrainian refugees who did get to Poland.

Can you just give us a sense, like, what has life been like for them there? You know, it really depends, obviously, on the people. But keep in mind, the vast majority of these people were women because, of course, Ukraine still bans adult males from leaving the country. So these were women, grandmothers, mothers, a lot of children as well that were leaving and are still outside the country. A lot of them are struggling finding work, finding daycare, finding housing. Housing in Poland is very expensive. And they're just having a really tough time making ends meet.

And as a result, an awful lot have gone back because they feel that at least they're home, at least they're comfortable in their familiar surroundings if they go back to Ukraine. Whereas in Poland, very many of them are struggling. There's no doubt about it. I mean, that's a really difficult situation. If you're making the choice to go back to a country that isn't a war, it sounds like both options are not great options for a lot of people then. They're not. And you go back to Ukraine, and of course, Western Ukraine, obviously, is an awful lot safer than Eastern Ukraine. But nonetheless, the economy in Ukraine is collapsing by any stretch of the imagination.

Work there is even harder to find. You know, you're talking about women, wives who've left their husbands behind who just want to go back and be a family again. And that is a huge draw. There's one woman I've been in touch with since we first met her shortly after the full-scale evasion started. Her name's Lolly. She was in Poland for a long time with her son, Misha. And she can't go back to Ukraine. She's from Mariupol.

So that's obviously nowhere she can go back to. They now have gone to Ireland. And I was just texting her this week and she still can't find housing. She still can't find work. Misha works in a nail salon. They are struggling mightily. And she was saying she pretty much cries every day.

She's trying to get him a passport. She had visions of maybe coming to Canada, but that's fallen through. So she is just absolutely beside herself. Wow. Yeah. And from what I understand, Ukrainians were fairly well supported by Poland when the war started, when people were coming over initially. Can you remind us, what was Poland doing to help people who were fleeing the war and ending up there? Well, there was support on an awful lot of levels. I mean, you really have to credit the Polish people in the government at that time for what they did. I mean, you had an outpouring of support from communities, people donating things, people putting up refugees in their houses. It was pretty remarkable.

The government stepped in as well with fairly generous support payments. Obviously, like other EU countries, Poland allowed Ukrainians to come in and work, apply for social benefits, apply for Medicare, that kind of thing. But they even went beyond that. There was free bus transit. And again, the public level of support was phenomenal. And do we have a sense, like, where were people staying? Were they staying in shelters? You mentioned some people were being housed in Polish houses, but where were people actually ending up? An awful lot lived in shelters and are still living in shelters. I mean, some of the shelters we visited at that time were housing 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 people. One of them was built to house 20,000 people. It never got to that level, but that was the size of the demand that they felt. Anyway, a lot of people were put up in houses, an awful lot of polls opened their doors and invited

Ukrainians in. Now, they got some support from the government to do that as well, but it wasn't really reflective of what they were doing on a volunteer basis. People really did just open their homes and their arms to Ukrainians who were just streaming across the border at that time. So, of course, the war has gone on now for a year and a half. What has happened now, Paul? So, you know, initially you're saying there's a lot of support, free bus passes, all kinds of things. Where are we at with those benefits now in Poland? Well, it has changed and two things have changed. One, the economics have changed and two, the sort of welcoming and politics have changed. On the economic front, a lot of those benefits have started to be pulled back. I mean, they were expensive in fairness to the government. And Poland, like Canada, like a lot of other countries, is facing a cost of living issue. And it couldn't afford to go above and beyond what it had agreed to do under the EU rules. So some of those things fell away. The bus passes, the support for people putting up Ukrainians has been scaled back a little bit. Now, one of the changes that came in last year was the government stopped fully supporting Ukrainians who stayed in shelters.

Now, if you are in a shelter, after I think about 40 or 50 days, you have to start paying a portion of those costs. And that amount goes up the longer you stay. And of course, if you're in a shelter, by definition, you have nowhere to stay and finding work for these people is very difficult. So a lot of those things were scaled back, probably understandably. However, what's happened now is Poland's in the middle of an election campaign, pretty tight election campaign that's gotten fairly ugly. And now the parties on the right have been advocating cutting all support for Ukrainians. There's been a real backlash among some factions of the population against these refugees and against Ukrainians who are already living in Poland. So it's turned into a pretty big issue in the election campaign.

And the governing party, Law and Justice, the populist party, is really trying to move to the right to fend off a challenge from a party called Confederation, which is on the right. That's the party that's very anti-immigration and particularly anti-Ukrainian. And now the populist Law and Justice Party is kind of adopting the same language. We'll be back after this message. And so, as you said, a lot of this seems to come down to politics at play here. There is an upcoming election on October 15th. You touched on this a bit, Paul, but what kind of rhetoric have we seen during this election campaign, both from this far-right party that you mentioned, but also from the sitting government in Poland?

Well, I mean, what you're hearing is, of course, an awful lot of backlash, not only against the refugees, but against Ukraine itself. The party in the far-right confederation doesn't even want Poland to support Ukraine with arms anymore, which is pretty dramatic considering that Poland has been one of the staunchest defenders of Ukraine since the full-scale invasion. Now that language is being adopted by the Law and Justice Party, the governing party, which is also on the right, let's say, maybe not as far right as Confederation, but nonetheless pretty far right. They've also adopted this language. They were critical of Zelensky a few weeks ago. They've been also advocating that maybe it's time to stop supplying Ukraine with arms. It's time to stop spending all of this money on Ukraine when people in Poland

need the money. Now, some of this is just down to politics of a campaign. And then there's some sense that this will die down once the election is over. But the government is talking about stopping all benefits to Ukrainians as of March 2024, which would run against even what the EU has recommended, which is extending the benefits to March 2025. So whether or not they go through with that is an issue. But nonetheless, they're talking about doing it, which is pretty dramatic. And this is also spilled over into relations between Zelensky, Ukraine's president, and the president of Poland as well. Can you tell me about that?

Yeah, I mean, a lot of this has to do with a grain issue. And what happened is once the Russians started blowing up the port of Odessa, that left Ukraine with very few options to get its grain out of the country. And of course, Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of an awful lot of commodities, including wheat and other grains.

So they couldn't ship it out of Odessa. So what they had to do was put it on trucks and trains by and large. And those trucks and trains had to go through Poland and other border countries. What had happened though, is the grain was stopping in Poland, you know, as they tried to get it logistically on its way to other places, other parts of the world. But while it remained in Poland, the fear was it was going to depress prices. It was going to cause havoc in the Polish grain market. And the farmers were up in arms about this. And law and justice, the governing party, is very much a rural-based party.

And so to protect their farmers, they basically banned imports of all Ukrainian foodstuffs. They only allow them to transit through the country. They're not allowed to stop there. Because they were essentially worried about flooding the market with Ukrainian grain then, and people would buy that instead of Polish grain. Exactly. Well, yeah, that was the country. They're not allowed to stop there. Because they were essentially worried about flooding the market with Ukrainian grain then and people would buy that instead of Polish grain. Exactly. Well, yeah, that was the fear. And that had happened a little bit and farmers were already complaining that the prices were depressed, even though a lot of that grain wasn't leaving the silos and into the Polish market. The fear was that it was going to and that was enough to push the prices down. So this became a huge issue last spring and through the

summer. The EU got involved. Four other countries, border countries were also involved and the EU agreed to halt imports of grain from Ukraine into Poland and these other countries. It would only allow them to go through. The EU dropped its requirement for a ban in September, but Poland has refused to abide by that and it's continuing to ban Ukrainian foodstuff, again, mainly because of the election campaign. But it's a reflection of how bad relations on that level have come between the two countries. Ukraine now is suing Poland at the World Trade Organization over this issue. So and there's been a lot of heated exchanges between Zelensky and Poland's president over this. So it's become a point of contention and a bit of a divisive issue within the EU as well. So this whole issue with the grain dispute here, Paul, do we know how much of an impact this is having on how people in Poland actually feel about Ukraine and Ukrainians? Well, I mean, it feeds into this narrative. And you have to back up a little bit as well. Poland

and Ukraine have a very complicated history anyway. There was atrocities committed by both sides during the Second World War that are still remembered very well. So there is a very difficult relationship there anyway. It kind of was put aside when the full scale invasion started. Everybody rallied around Ukraine and Ukrainians. But now you're starting to see that seat back in, that kind of animosity towards Ukrainians kind of coming back. I think there's been a lot of polls see that seat back in, that kind of animosity towards Ukraine is kind of coming back. I think there's been a lot of polls showing that, you know, when obviously February 2022, March 2022, support for Ukraine was through the roof in Poland, you know, 80, 90 percent. That has fallen back sharply now. It's still probably around the 50 percent range.

And I don't mean to say that all polls feel this way. I'm sure there's still an awful lot of support for Ukrainians and for refugees in that. But there's a growing number and there's a growing outcry. And there's people feeling that it's okay now to say we shouldn't support Ukraine and we shouldn't support Ukrainian refugees. Whereas a year and a half ago, those people wouldn't have said that. And the Confederation, this party on the far right, was very kind of silent about Ukraine in the immediate aftermath of the war, simply because they knew it wasn't popular. Now, it's one of their main platforms because they think it's a vote getter. Okay, so Ukrainians are now leaving Poland by the thousands. Where are they actually going, Paul? By the looks of it, an awful lot of them are going to Germany. In fact,

Germany now has more Ukrainian refugees than Poland. It's got about 1.1 million Polands down to around 900 odd thousand. And so this is a recent change because there weren't many Ukrainians in Germany before. Is that right? Yeah, that's interesting. I was looking at the numbers and there was about the population of Ukrainians in Germany, funny enough, was only about 150,000. It was not a place Ukrainians went to before the war. They would mainly go to Poland, work there, and then come back.

I think, again, it was geography more than anything. Now, though, Ukrainians, the way it's going, will soon make up the largest ethnic minority in Germany. So it's changed dramatically since February 2022. And it's actually been in the past year that this outflow of Ukrainians from Poland into Germany has really occurred. Yeah. Can you tell me, like, how quick has the shift been? I'm wondering,

like, how many people have moved in the last year or so? Do we know? I think since August 2022, the figures show the number of Ukrainians in Poland has gone down by about 300,000 and gone up by 400,000 in Germany. So we don't know if all of those people from Poland went to Germany, but it's believed an awful lot of them did. Okay. So we talked about how feelings are changing in Poland and how some of the financial benefits for refugees are also drying up. And Paul, I know you spoke to some researchers who looked into this migration of Ukrainians from Poland to Germany. So what did the researchers tell you? What are the main reasons for why people are leaving? It's family and it's jobs. I mean, keep in mind, one of the reasons so many Ukrainians were working

in Poland before the war was because they filled a lot of low-skilled jobs that Poles didn't want to do. And they were a very important source of labor for businesses in Poland. But obviously, those were low-paying jobs. They can do better in Germany, even if the same job is probably going to pay three or four times higher in Germany than it is in Poland. The social benefits are better. The language training is better. So they just feel an awful lot of them that they'll be better off going to Germany. Can you talk a little bit more about that? You said the social services are better. The language training is also there. What is in place in Germany? Well, I mean, it's basically the same kind of thing that Germany has to provide social benefits, access to health care and that kind of thing that Poland does under this EU mandate.

It's just everything like that is better in Germany. Right. This benefits are better. It's a bigger economy. It's, you know, more people, wealthier nations. So obviously everything they do is going to be a little bit better than what they have in Poland. And on top of that, jobs pay better. I mean, the average salary is much higher. And there was also a sense that they don't they're not going to to face this same kind of backlash that they do in Poland, because the history isn't quite the same. I mean, there's obviously complicated history there as well, but not as directly as it is in Poland. And they're not in the midst of an election campaign where Ukrainian refugees have become a topical issue. So I just think they felt better, more

economic opportunities in Germany, and also probably just a better social structure and maybe a bit more welcoming attitude. Yeah, because I think when we think about recent history, we do look at how Germany has welcomed refugees, right? I'm thinking, of course, of 2015 when Germany welcomed close to a million people, many fleeing the war in Syria and other parts of the world as well. Is this situation, I guess, similar to that, Paul, or are there clear differences in how Germany is opening up for refugees? For Germany, it's certainly very similar, right? I mean, as you mentioned, they're very used to this. They did this through the Syrian crisis. They've done this before. For Poland, it is not

normal. They didn't welcome any Syrian refugees. They certainly did their best to not welcome them. In fact, the irony in Poland is while they're opening the doors, or they did open the doors to Ukrainians in the immediate aftermath of the full scale invasion, they're building a wall along the border with Belarus to stop Syrians from coming through Belarus into Poland. So it's a bit of a dichotomy there. But no, Poland doesn't have a really long track record in refugees. They've had immigration from Ukraine, but they haven't really had much experience with refugees. So this is very much a first for them, whereas you're right. I mean, for Germany, they're pretty accustomed to this. Yeah. So what you're saying there, really, the reception depends on the kind of refugees you're getting in some places,

is what you're saying there. Oh, absolutely. I mean, you just have to look at some of the campaign ads underway in Poland right now. They're showing, you know, scenes of, you know, rioting in Marseille and rioting in France by, you know, migrants and saying this is what's going to happen to Poland if we start allowing, you know, Muslims and brown people into our country. It's really that basic. And it's really that ugly. And it's incredibly anti-immigrant and racist, in fact, to some of the advertising you're seeing in the political campaign is just flat out racist. Okay, so people are turning to Germany here. This still can't be easy, though. These are people who've fled a war, they've gone to one country and now a second country. What are the barriers, Paul, for people setting up again in

Germany? Yeah, it's difficult. I mean, you've got right off the bat, you've got a language problem, right? If you've been struggling to learn Polish, now you're struggling to learn German. It's still going to be an integration issue. Yes, they're finding work by and large, according to the polling, according to the surveys, that will benefit the German economy in the long run. But for the Ukrainians, it is still going to be an adjustment, obviously, in an integration process. And I think there's still a fairly large chunk that are desperate to go home. They don't really see Germany as a long-term plan, but nonetheless, they're going to be there for the next little while anyway. Can we, I guess, delve into that a little bit? Because yeah, Germany is

a little bit further from Poland. You're getting further and further from your home in Ukraine. How are people thinking about whether they'll go back home or whether they'll stay in Germany? It's hard to say. You know, I think these surveys, when they ask these Ukrainians, do they want to go home, they all will say, yes, of course, I want to go home, right? Because, again, they are divided from families. They want to go back home. They want to be reunited.

But the longer they stay, the more likely they are to stay. And that's what's becoming evident as well. Once you get a job, once you find housing, once you learn the language, it becomes a little bit harder to say, well, I'm going to go back to Ukraine now, especially given the state of not only Ukraine, obviously because of the war, but its economy as well, that they may feel that maybe they're better off here and they'll hope that their husbands will be allowed to leave at some point. The last survey I saw out of Germany was about 30 odd percent really do want to go back, but that number is falling. And again, the longer it goes on and check a survey a year from now, if the war is still going on, it'll probably be even lower. Yeah. Just lastly here, Paul, we are starting to see fatigue a little bit in supporting Ukraine in this war. We're seeing this in Poland, as we talked about. We're also seeing this in the US.S. as well. So I guess what could this all mean

for Ukrainian refugees going forward? Well, I mean, we're not seeing the same numbers of people leaving Ukraine that we did before. In fact, if anything, I think there's probably a net flow into Ukraine right now. However, the longer the war kind of stays in this stalemate, it will be difficult to keep up interest in the West and certainly in the US, which has been the single biggest funder for Ukraine, not just on a military level, but on a humanitarian level. And I know a lot of charities are having a hard time raising money for Ukraine. I know a lot of media organizations have pulled out of covering Ukraine because there's nothing really that they see going on there. So yeah, I think it's going to be very difficult.

And I think that's why you're seeing Zelensky travel so much more lately than he has been, simply to keep it front and center and to keep the support going. Paul, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today. Sure, glad to. That's it for today. I'm Mainika Raman-Wells. Our producers are Madeline White, Cheryl Sutherland, and Rachel Levy-McLaughlin. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer. And Angela Pachenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.