The Decibel - What happened to $10-a-day child care?

Episode Date: February 4, 2026

The federal government’s Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care program was meant to bring child care fees down to $10 per day and create 284,000 new daycare spaces by the end of March this year. A recent report found the program is expected to miss that goal by 90,000 spaces – and many places haven’t reached the initial $10 a day goal. But this program has made a huge difference for families.Today, we’re doing a daycare check in with the Globe’s education reporter Dave McGinn. He’ll walk us through what’s worked with the program, what hasn’t, and when we might expect more affordable child care in Canada.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

By the end of March this year, daycare is supposed to cost $10 a day across Canada. And there's supposed to be 284,000 new spaces. But that's not likely to happen in time. A recent report found that the program is going to be behind by 90,000 spaces. And many places are not at $10. Even still, the program has made a huge difference for parents that have been able to access it. So today we're doing a daycare check-in with the Globe's education reporter Dave McGinn. He'll tell us about the good, the bad, and what can be improved on to make more affordable child care in Canada.

I'm Cheryl Sutherland, and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. Dave, thanks so much for joining us today. Thank you for having me. So let's start by reminding people about this program, the Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care Program, or SeaWilk, for short. We typically call it the $10 a day child care program. When did it start? And what were the stated goals? So Seawoke was announced in the federal budget in April of 2021.

And the goal was to create a national child care system that was primarily made up of public and nonprofit child care spaces that would charge an average of $10 a day by April 1st of 2026. And in addition to that, it would create 284.4.4.4.4.5.5. thousand new spaces by that deadline. Yeah. So kind of like three big goals here, right? Like bring down fees to an average of $10 a day, open new spaces, 284,000 new spaces across Canada. And then it was the third kind of thing was like mostly public nonprofit centers with kind

of the goal. That's exactly right. And very ambitious, five-year timeline is very ambitious. Some people in child care have told me these goals would be more reasonably spread out over a 10-year time period. But the feds chose five years. And so as we approach that five-year deadline, everyone in child care is sort of assessing, well, where are we at now? Yeah.

Okay. So this is an agreement between the provinces and territories and the federal government, right? Yes. So child care is like health care in that it is the responsibility of the provinces and territories. Each province and territory negotiated its own separate deal with the federal government under Seawalk. Okay. Let's talk about which places are doing well in the country and which aren't. So what do we learn from this report?

So this report was done by the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives and is authored by its senior economist David McDonald. The Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives has done a lot of very in-depth work on child care for many years now. And what they found is that overall, we are 90,000 child care spaces short of the goal for the end of March of this year. That sounds like a lot, right? It is a lot. And the also concerning fact that the report found is that most spaces, 57% of those new spaces that have been created have been created in the for-profit sector. Okay. Let's get a breakdown of where provinces and territories are in the space schools.

So which provinces are not doing well? Three provinces have hit their space creation targets ahead of time. That's Quebec, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Ontario is pretty close to its space creation targets. This report looked at data up to around the end of 2025. So Ontario is very close to the finish line, and they may even make their space creation targets by the end of March. Alberta had to postpone its targets deadline until the end of next year. And the province said it is on track to meet those targets by the end of next year.

Okay. Right. And I think that some other provinces are not hitting the targets are Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and Labrador. So quite a number of provinces are not hitting the targets. Do all of these new daycare spaces fall under the government program? No. The report just looked at the total number of licensed spaces that have been created since 2022 and found, you know, most of them are in Seawoke, but some of them are not. So, for example, in Ontario, a third of the new spaces that have been created are not a part of Seawoke. Oh, interesting. Okay. So they're just new spaces, but not a part of the program. So perhaps they're not providing the $10 date type of thing. Okay. Why aren't these day spaces part of the program? There are advantages and disadvantages to being part of the program. Many provinces have limits, different structures on the kinds of centers that can be part of the program. So in Ontario, there's a 70-30 ratio between public and for-profit care. But when you look at the advantages for not being in the program, you can charge whatever parent fees you want. you don't have to do what many operators say is the onerous paperwork of being in the program and more generally just enjoy, you know, the freedom of not having to be under CWolk's

conditions. Okay. So, Dave, why haven't we got to the 284,000 new spaces across Canada? In the first several years of the program, the focus was very much on bringing fees down. And on the whole, the country has done a very good job of that. There hasn't been the same effort to create spaces. And so what you find particularly if you look in Ontario, for example, non-profit organizations have a hard time coming up with capital to open up new spaces.

It can be a costly endeavor. The province will tell you that there's a funding shortfall. So they simply don't have enough money to open new spaces. And issues like rent in Toronto make it very difficult to open new spaces. So there's several factors as to why. And people in child care will tell you, now that we've lowered fees considerably, we really need to shift quite intentionally to putting more investment into capital funding so that we can build these centers. Okay.

So what it sounds like is that it's, you know, creating new spaces, is probably much harder than actually reducing the fees. Much harder than reducing the fees and creating new spaces is much harder for nonprofit organizations than it is for for profit organizations. And that, I think, in large part, explains why we're seeing so much growth in the for-profit sector compared to the nonprofit sector. Well, cost is a huge barrier for parents. So let's talk about the cost because you said there actually is some progress here. How are provinces and territories doing on bringing down the fees to $10 a day? Overall, they're doing very well.

You know, there's six provinces and territories that have already met or exceeded the target of $10 a day. Wow. That's Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario has capped fees at a maximum of $22 a day. So not $10 a day, but better than it used to be. In Alberta, the way their deal is structured is they have a maximum. maximum of about $3, I think it's $326.26.25 a month maximum that can be charged. So about just over $15 per day. Okay. All right. So fees are coming down. That's a huge improvement.

What are the barriers in bringing down the costs for the provinces that haven't hit that target of $10 a day? The biggest barrier they will say is funding. They need more money from the federal government. And this is why many people in child care are very anxious at this moment because now that the first five years of the deal are up and provinces are renegotiating deals with the federal government, there's a sense that provinces are pushing the feds to say, we need more money. Otherwise, this program will not be sustainable. Okay. So what I'm hearing here is that the federal government's putting money into it, but provinces are saying we need more money. For example, Ontario is probably saying they want more money to be able to fund the program to be able to bring the price down to $10. Exactly. Exactly. I think Ontario has said they're facing something along the lines of almost a $2 billion funding shortfall for it.

Okay. One of the goals of this program was to create public, non-profit spaces. How is the program doing on that particular goal? It is falling pretty short of that goal. The report from the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives found that of all. all new licensed spaces created since 2022, 57% of them are for-profit spaces. And what is the issue with having spaces being created in the for-profit sector versus the nonprofit sector? Well, I think people in child care will tell you, if you point to the original goals that the federal government had for the program, they were always very vocal that it should be primarily a nonprofit sector.

And so we've seen now that that's simply not the case. The concerns people have about for-profit care is that overall, you're probably less likely to get the same level of quality. The early childhood educators won't be paid as well. There'll be more staff turnover. They may not be as qualified. Is that true? Studies have shown that. Yes.

Yes. The Auditor General in Quebec did a study of child. care in the province in 2023 and 2024 and found that, yes, that is generally true. So there are a lot of concerns people have about for-profit care, although for-profit providers will tell you, you know, we have to follow the same licensing requirements as nonprofits. So, you know, there's arguments for both sides, but certainly if we look to say, well, the goal was to create a primarily nonprofit system.

So far, we're not doing that. Okay. So what about on the other side? Is there an argument for having more for-profit centers? Well, if you ask for-profit operators, they'll tell you there certainly is. The advantage of for-profit, the for-profit sector is that they can create spaces much faster than the nonprofit sector, as we've already seen, right? We look at that 57% number. It shows you how better position they are to open up new centers.

It's more easy for them to go get. capital investment loans from a bank, for instance, than a nonprofit might. But advocates for non-profit care will tell you that the problem with opening things up even more to for-profits is that for-profit centers won't open in all the places where you need them. So for-profit centers are more likely to open in places where they're going to make a high demand. And, And make a profit, right? So downtown Toronto, you're going to find a lot of child care centers in more rural communities or less affluent communities. There's a concern that you're not as likely to find the same desire for for-profit operators to open in those areas.

We'll be right back. Dave, there are also a lot of positives of this program. Let's talk about those. Like, what kind of difference has this program made for families? Lots of positives. I remember paying about $3,000 a month to have both of my kids in daycare. So expensive. So expensive.

To the point where you have to wonder if you have to quit your job. So if you are fortunate enough to have a Seawks space, even if it's not at $10 a day, even better if it is at $10 a day. But even with fees where we're at right now, you're saving a ton of money. There was another report last year, also from the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, that said compared to the 2020 median fee for an infant space, Toronto parents were saving $1,389 a month in 2025.

That's a huge amount of money. That's a huge amount of money, especially at a time when affordability, is on everyone's mind, there's also the broader issue of Canada's declining birth rate. And I do think that if you were saving this much money on child care, it's just life changing in a way where you can think, you know, we can work. We might also be able to have a second kid. It changes the math on so many of your life decisions. Absolutely. I remember when I put my first child in daycare, she's five and a half years old, I did have to pay about $2,000 a month. And it was a wild amount of money.

I timed very appropriately. The C-Walk program actually came into effect and that my fees went down so much. But if I were to have two kids at that time, there was no way. Like, it's just way too expensive. There's no way. What kind of difference has this program made on the availability of spaces for families? Like, how many kids still need daycare spots? Because this is the issue, right?

Like, it's super popular now. What does it mean for spots, though? It is super popular. and I think looking back on 2021, we all could have seen a huge change in the supply and demand curve. Because when you tell parents, hey, this astronomically expensive thing is on its way to being $10 a day, who wouldn't want to sign up for that? I mean, so many parents that would never even have considered daycare are suddenly putting their names on wait lists. So the demand for this thing was always going to be overwhelming. When we look at the 90,000 spaces short of its targets figure, the CCPA report found that the kids living in a child care desert, which is defined as kids.

It's usually kids living in a postal code or even a block where there are three or more kids for every one licensed child care space. The number of child care deserts are going down, but the number of child care deserts are going down. but there's still a lot of kids living in them. So the report found, for example, in Saskatchewan, 42% of kids are living in a child care desert. Half of kids in Manitoba are living in a child care desert. A third of kids in Ontario and Nova Scotia are still living in a child care desert. And just over 31% of children in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador live in a child care desert.

So while the total number of kids living in child care deserts has declined, there's still a pretty significant amount of them waiting for spaces. Okay. Yeah, that's very difficult. When we talk about the popularity of this program, I'll say with my second daughter, I saw the huge influx because, you know, from paying $2,000 a month to now five years later, trying to get my second daughter into daycare. It was, I called so many daycares, and they're just like, good luck. So many daycare. You're going to be on the list for two years.

So that's the issue now. Yeah. And, and I mean, keep in mind, it was already very. very hard to find child care. I mean, my kids are much older than this program, but I remember putting them on every wait list I could find. It was still very difficult, but finding a Seawoke spot is close to winning the lottery.

What about staffing concerns? I know we've had you on the show talking about how it is difficult to have staff stay at daycare centers because of pay issues. You know, it's also very hard work. How is that going? There is still a very significant staffing shortage in child care, partly because we've created, we have created a lot of spaces, even though we're 90,000 short. And so filling them has been difficult. But workers themselves will tell you that the pay they're receiving just isn't sufficient enough to draw more people into the profession.

Is there any sense that might change? There, I mean, some provinces have instituted wage grids. You know, pay has gone up, but it is still a major point of contention in the industry of just, you know, what sort of workforce strategy are we going to adopt here? And what sort of pay our early childhood educators going to receive? Okay. So there are some positives, but also lots of progress that needs to be made. in this program. So what happens to this program now? All the provinces have signed extensions with the federal government. And so any, any big

changes we're likely to see won't happen for at least another year. But there is concern in the child care sector of what this program is going to be. And is it going, is the Carney government going to stick to the previous government's vision of a national, primarily non-profit system that is well-funded and available to the number of kids that's hoping to reach. So all the provinces have signed extensions to the agreement. So there's no fear that any province or territory is going to pull out. Not at the moment, no, but Ontario and I think Alberta only signed one-year extensions with the feds. And why is that?

They in principle agree with the program. They will continue to receive federal dollars over the next year by signing that extension. But I think it signals that they're saying, we're not ready to make a long-term commitment under the terms as they currently are. So let's continue for another year and we'll keep talking. And we will bring to the table the concerns that we have and we'll see. see where we're at in a year. This was a huge deal for the Trudeau government. How much of a priority is it for Mark Carney?

Do we have a sense of that? Carney has touted the program's benefits. He has committed money to it in the budget, but he doesn't seem to champion it the same way that the Trudeau government did. It's hard to say that it is as much of a priority to his government as it was to the previous liberal government. And so we're going to have to see his commitment to it in terms of, will they invest more money in it? If provinces say they need more federal dollars to keep it as it is, will he invest more money in it or will they begin to make fundamental changes to it? And it's a very interesting time for child care because Carney has pointed out that affordability is

such an issue to Canadians, and child care seems to fit very squarely within that category. Yeah, absolutely. So, Dave, you've been covering daycares for a while. I mean, you're the education reporter now, but, you know, you've been following the daycare situation for many years. And you've talked to a lot of experts about this. What's the sense of what the future of this program might look like? The sense, particularly amongst advocates of nonprofit care, is there's a lot of, there's an anxious feeling at the moment of what are we going to see over the next year

in terms of really committing to this program and its original vision or veering from that vision. So will we see the federal government invest even more money in it? Will we see more help to create non-profit spaces? Will we create the division of a truly national, primarily non-profit spaces? primarily non-profit child care system across the country, which would be a massive achievement. Or will we begin to see really kind of fundamental pillars of it altered? Meaning will we see caps on fees disappear? Will we see caps on non-for-profit spaces disappear?

Will we see there be no more federal funding or no additional federal funding? Will we see provinces investing in it less? And the answers to those questions right now are still very much up in the air. Dave, always great to have you on this show. Thank you so much. Thank you for having me. That was Dave McGinn, the Globe's Education Reporter. That's it for today. I'm Cheryl Sutherland. Our producers are Madeline White, Mikhail Stein, and Rachel Levy McLaughlin.

Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening.