The Decibel - What happens for Tibet when the Dalai Lama dies

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Tibet used to be a prominent focus of international attention, but that isn’t the case anymore as less and less information comes out of the region. But things are still very difficult for Tibetans as China cracks down. The Dalai Lama – who is the spiritual leader of Tibet – is 88, and there are concerns about what will happen for Tibet and its people when he eventually dies.Today, The Globe’s James Griffiths tells us about the situation in Tibet and those who have fled, and how Tibetans are thinking about the future of their community.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail]

I'm standing in the main square of Dharamshala, a town in the foothills of the Himalayas, which has been home to the Tibetan exile community since the Dalai Lama fled here in 1959. That's the Globe's James Griffiths in Dharamshala, India. So Dharamshala is a small town in the Himalayas, about a 90 minute flight from Delhi on a pretty tiny propeller plane. It's right in the foothills of the Himalayas. So when you're there, the Himalayas are looming over you, these huge gray snow-capped mountains.

Just up the hills from Dharamsala, one of the suburbs of the town is this place called McLeod Ganj, which is the home to one of the largest Tibetan exile communities, including, of course, most importantly, it's where the Dalai Lama lives and the Tibetan government in exile is based. The Dalai Lama, who is the spiritual leader of Tibet, fled to Dharamsala more than 60 years ago after China annexed the region. Nowadays, we hear a lot about China's oppression of the Uyghur population, about its aggression towards Taiwan and pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. But we don't hear much about Tibet anymore.

And Tibet and its people are still in a difficult situation. China has been cracking down forcefully in Tibet. The Dalai Lama is 88 years old, and his health is declining. This raises huge concerns about what will happen for Tibetans and their relationship with China when the Dalai Lama dies. Today, James tells us about the situation in Tibet and how those who have fled are thinking about the future of their community. I'm Mainika Raman-Wilms, and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail.

James, thanks so much for being back here again. Thank you. Great to be here. So I want to talk about who you met in Dharamshala in a minute. But first, James, I mean, you've done a lot of reporting about what it's like in Tibet itself. What do we know about what's happening in Tibet these days? Honestly, not as much as we should do, because getting information out of Tibet is extremely difficult. What does drip out is often quite disturbing stories of widespread oppression, limits on religious practice, limits on how people use Tibetan culture and Tibetan language.

A United Nations panel recently warned that around a million Tibetan children have been forced to be placed in what are called residential schools, which are for Canadians strikingly similar to Canada's own history of colonial boarding schools. And so there is a lot of oppression. But what's remarkable about Tibet, and especially if you contrast it with somewhere like Xinjiang, which is where the Uyghur ethnic minority lives lives and where there's been stories of mass prison camps and other forms of oppression, is that while we've been able to get a lot of information out of Xinjiang and while one of our colleagues at the Globe, Nathan Vanderclip, was able to visit Xinjiang and even go to some of these camps, Western journalists can't go to Tibet. Western diplomats can't go to Tibet. And the information that gets out is extremely limited,

even for Tibetans in the diaspora gets out is extremely limited, even for Tibetans in the diaspora and exile communities who are working to get this information out. Why is it so difficult to get information out of Tibet or to get journalists into Tibet? Some of it is because of the state controls, that there are extreme limits on communication in Tibet. There is tight censorship of the internet there. There's a very, very heavy surveillance. It's very, very risky for someone to be caught communicating with an exiled journalist or foreign media for that matter. And then especially with the coronavirus, with China shutting its borders for two years, that meant the amount of people that were leaving Tibet, even people that were kind of traditionally come and go, like tourists or traders, they weren't going in and out. And that really cut off the flow of information even more.

I think it's important maybe to get some context around the recent history Lamas and was de facto independent when the People's Republic of China was formed in 1949. There was pressure immediately from Beijing to become part of this new country. And in 1951, the People's Liberation Army marched into Tibet and it was essentially annexed to the People's Republic. Soon after that annexation, there was an uprising against the occupying forces, and the Dalai Lama fled to India, where he's remained ever since. This initially was seen as a short-term exile with the hope that he would be able to return to Tibet and head the government again, but has now been many decades, and there doesn't seem to

be any hope of the Dalai Lama ever returning to Tibet. Yeah. I mean, this sounds like a difficult situation to live in. So are people trying to leave Tibet and get out of there? In the past, a lot of people have left. We saw thousands leave over the years, tens of thousands, especially kind of shortly after the Dalai Lama himself fled in the 50s. And then kind of most recently, the big flow of people out came after there was an uprising in Tibet in 2008. And there was a huge crackdown that followed that and a lot of people tried to leave as a result of that. But just as information struggles to get out, people increasingly struggle to get out of Tibet.

And in recent years, diaspora communities have reported that the number of people arriving, the number of new refugees making it out of the country has dwindled to, you know, just a handful, one or two a year sometimes. But James, when you were in Dharamsala, you did actually meet someone who had recently fled Tibet to come to India, to come to Dharamsala. Can you tell me about him? Yeah, there's a man called Sering Dawa who was one of only a handful of people to arrive in Dharamshala in 2021. I spoke to Sering Dawa through an interpreter about why he decided to leave Tibet. He begins telling us from 2010. He was working in the bank.

He was quite well off. So he decided to go for a vacation. He met a tourist and learned about using a VPN, a virtual private network, to get through Chinese internet controls. Meanwhile, he also entered the search words like Tibetan, Dalai Lama. And then YouTube has such a rich repository of information on that.

And his outlook, his worldview, even his idea on his own people completely changed. And that really kind of connected with the controls and the limits he felt on, felt already himself in his daily life, felt on expressing his religion and culture. The key reason he feels like there's this overwhelming shadow of fear when you're back home, you know. Even if it's just an office meeting or social gathering there's always this sense of people are watching you it sort of gives you that suffocating feeling right and he says in

such an environment who would stay and that's when he realized that even if even though he was in tibet which is physically like his land you you know, the information, the whole machinery on how he's consuming information is wholly Chinese. You know, there's nothing Tibetan about it. And that's when he decided now he needs to move out, you know. And that, you know, gradually made him decide to leave and take what was, he didn't want to share the exact route that he left by because it's not a very used one. He doesn't want to ruin it for other people, but it was a very expensive route for him to take and quite difficult. He was so rare that some people suspected him of being a

Chinese spy and he was actually treated with maybe more suspicion than sympathy for a refugee and you know kind of had to prove his story so when he reached india into exile he felt this freedom through all these aspects body speech and mind you know even if it's a small thing like visiting the monastery you know like having better sleep you know so he says like people like us in the outside world not being in such under such regimes would not even comprehend even if he tells you that's not really something he could translate you know we'll be right back i understand the dalai lama has been a proponent of something called the middle way. What is that, James? The middle way, according to the Dalai Lama, is based on this comment that former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping said that except independence, all other issues can be resolved through negotiations. And the idea is that by renouncing a claim to independence, Tibetans should be able to negotiate with China for everything else that they want, which is autonomy from the Chinese government, respect for Tibetan language and culture, and most importantly, for the Dalai Lama to be able to return to Tibet.

And so it was felt that basically they would propose, quite presciently, given that it came before Hong Kong was handed over to Chinese rule, they would propose a system that Hong Kong functioned under for a long time, kind of one country, two systems, where Tibet would be a part of China, but also somewhat distinct. There would be Tibetan administration, there would be relative autonomy, and the Dalai Lama would be able to kind of be either the head of the government or at least the head of the spiritual authorities in Tibet. This was, I think, initially for a while seen as something that really could make progress. But since 1989, especially since 2008 with the uprising then, this has just become basically an impossibility from the Chinese perspective. Despite the Dalai Lama repeatedly renouncing independence, they continue to label him a separatist and claim that he is fomenting Tibetan independence. So it's kind of a non-starter for them. So what's happening right now? Are the kind of influence and authority of the Tibetan government in exile will wane along with him.

And that will put them in an even stronger position. From a Chinese perspective, there isn't that much reason to negotiate. They have full control over Tibet. They aren't facing that much pressure from the international community to change that. And there's this little exile government in India that they don't feel the need to recognize or deal with anymore. But there must still be people pushing for independence for Tibet. Can you tell me a little bit about that movement and who is pushing for this? Yes, there is a strong Tibetan independence movement, both outside of Tibet. And also we do see when there is unrest in Tibet that a lot of the demands are much more towards independence.

And especially younger Tibetans, Tibetans born in exile, born in the diaspora, tend to be much more pro-independence than the central Tibetan administration, as the government in exile is known, or the Dalai Lama. I think for me, I always introduced myself as a Tibetan activist, freedom of the youngest people in the Tibetan exile parliament. She is a strong pro-independence activist. Her argument is essentially, we've been pushing the middle way for decades now. It hasn't got us anywhere. We should ask for what we want. We have seen how autonomy works

under the Chinese Communist Party and its constitution. I think I might be wrong, but we might say that, you know, the older generation have no hope, that they seem to have no willpower that will be able to challenge the Chinese Communist Party. That opinion might come as well. You know, we should be pushing for genuine independence

because that is what most Tibetans want. And in any case, the Chinese aren't going to give you autonomy or whatever the middle way might result in. I think what we lack is actual dialogue amongst ourselves. Amongst ourselves actually sitting down and reviewing the current situation inside Tibet and then future for Tibet. So I think we are assuming that this is the policy for future of Tibet, that is middle way approach, seeking genuine autonomy,

and as if it's not changeable at all. How much of that do you think is related to respect for His Holiness the Dalai Lama? That when we talk about middleweight policy, you've got basically the biggest... Largely. Yeah, that people don't want to come against it, right? Largely. There's also a certain amount of polling which suggests that while there is a bare majority of support for the middle way, a lot of that is due to respect for the Dalai Lama. James, a little bit earlier, you mentioned how there wasn't a lot of pressure from the international community for China to come to the negotiating table with Tibet.

How do other countries play into this relationship then between Tibet and China? Most countries recognize Chinese sovereignty over Tibet. Canada's line is that it, quote, recognizes Tibet as an integral part of the People's Republic of China with a distinct cultural identity, while Ottawa also criticizes a lot of Beijing's practices in Tibet and its policies there, particularly restrictions on culture, religion and language. Washington as well also supports Chinese or recognizes Chinese sovereignty,

but pushes for greater rights for Tibetans. Yeah, I wonder because, I mean, these days we hear a lot about Uyghurs in China, about Taiwan, the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong as well. And we used to hear a lot about Tibet, but not so much these days. Why don't we hear as much about Tibet anymore in this part of the world, at least? Yeah, some of that is because the conversation around China and around Chinese human rights practice or territorial practice has been overtaken by issues such as Hong Kong, especially overtaken by things like Xinjiang, Chinese

intentions towards Taiwan. And some of it is that this was something that was pushed very hard by the international community in previous decades. And obviously, Free Tibet was a major rallying cry in the West. We saw prominent celebrities sign up for this. It didn't really go anywhere, I think, is part of it. And those people who did speak up prominently, especially actors who spoke up prominently for Tibet, found they faced career repercussions as Chinese influence in Hollywood grew and China became more important economically. And it wasn't that beneficial for people to speak up for Tibet. And that's kind of seen the movement slightly fade. There's also an extent to which the Dalai Lama stood down as the political head of the government. So they now have an elected head

of government, the Sikyong. And while that is obviously good for the exile community, that this is a proper representative government, it also reduced the extent to which he was this kind of figurehead for the exile movement. So the Dalai Lama is now 88 years old. His health has been declining. What happens when he eventually dies? Previously, he said that when he's around 90, he will start to consult with other senior Lamas about the next steps. So the current Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is the 14th Dalai Lama.

And so when the Dalai Lama dies, typically he, from a religious perspective, typically he reincarnates and a young boy is recognized as the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. They're raised within the religion and they're eventually given more and more authority and become this leader, previously leader of a whole country,

a hereditary monarch, and now would be the spiritual leader of other Tibetan people. The current Dalai Lama has suggested that he might not reincarnate, that he may be the last Dalai Lama. He kind of joked that he was a popular Dalai Lama and perhaps we should finish with a popular one, because there have been much less popular Dalai Lamas in the past. That might be out of his hands. His other senior religious figures may still recognize a person as the 15th Dalai Lama after he's gone. What's almost certain is that Chinese religious authorities, Tibetan Buddhist religious authorities in China will recognize someone as the 15th Dalai Lama. And we've seen this previously because in the 1990s, the Panchen Lama, which is the

second most senior figure within Tibetan Buddhism, when the Dalai Lama recognized this six-year-old as the reincarnated Panchen Lama, that six-year-old promptly disappeared and was taken into Chinese custody. And we know that he's still alive, but we know very little about what's happened to him and how he spent his life. Chinese-controlled religious authorities recognized another person as the Panchen Lama. This is going to be extremely messy and extremely complicated when the Dalai Lama does eventually die. And it will be not just complicated, it will be extremely distressing and disturbing

for a lot of Tibetans, especially in exile. But it also makes a lot of complications for international governments. I think hosting or inviting or meeting with an unrecognized Dalai Lama or however you want to define this next stage, would be even more complicated, and I think would probably marginalize that person in a way, and would marginalize the Tibetan exile community far more than they have been under the current Dalai Lama, who is this hugely respected Nobel Peace Prize winning public figure and is able to get audiences around the world that no other Tibetan is able to. So I mean, is there the possibility that the Dalai Lama's death, I mean, could that maybe mean that more people are willing to support the

idea of independence in an independent Tibet? So, this is something that the Tibetan exile government has also kind of been warning about and has maybe kind of subtly been trying to intimate to China that, look, you should meet with us because we're more reasonable than what might come next, as it were. Once the Dalai Lama is gone, there is a strong feeling among many Tibetans that the middle way may go with him, that a lot more people will push for independence. You've even seen within the current Central Tibetan administration that they have become more, not pro-independence, but the language they use is a lot more forceful than previous administrations. And they're pushing for much

more kind of aggressive action by the international community on their behalf. I think when the Dalai Lama dies, we may see a kind of transformed Tibetan exile community that is advocating directly for independence. But at the same time, without the Dalai Lama, the risk for them is that while there will be more energy towards independence, they may also become much more marginal, both in the international community and within kind of the popular conversation around Tibet. And so if the Chinese were unwilling to negotiate with him, there's probably no reason that they would ever be willing to negotiate with the government in exile with the representatives of the elected Central Tibetan administration, unless they're able to get the international community to really pressure China to meet with them and to recognize

them as representatives of Tibet. Yeah. Jamesames thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me thanks for having me that's it for today i'm mainika ram and welms our summer producer is nagin mia our producers are madeline white cheryl sutherland and rachel levy mclaughlin david crosby edits the show. Adrienne Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pachenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.