The Derivative - Valuations….Are you F*&^ing Insane, with Howard Lindzon

Episode Date: August 26, 2021

Our guest this episode is surely not a stranger to our listeners, with his voice reaching far and wide via StockTwits, the Panic with Friends podcast, his ever-changing Twitter handle (currently Metav...erse Lindzon) and his eponymous blog where he dishes on everything from stock picks to software to NFTs.  Oh, and in his spare time, he’s invested in some big names like Robinhood, eToro, Koyfin, and Rally Road. We sit down with Howard for a quick chat on exactly what he means by ‘trend following’, why that’s not the same thing the managed futures industry sees it, why sometimes it really is that easy, golfing with your son, whether it’s early or late in crypto, carb-loading your legs, ‘drafting’ behind pros for big trends, living in a rare asset world, investing in a bubble, how not to get scared off putting money to work amidst the Fed/inflation/etc, finding a career that suits your lifestyle, NFTs, Tesla, HOOD, whether RIAs are the next travel agents, or if they’re the travel agents that survived, and whether it’s a good idea to have 50%+ of your liquid net worth in crypto. Take a listen: Chapters: 00:00-02:09=Intro 02:10-11:35 =  Playing Golf, Peloton & Pushing Tesla’s Range 11:36-33:59 = Go West Young Man (into Crypto) & Not Being the Last Guy Out 34:00-56:02 = The Golden Age of Investing, Gamification & Community 56:03-01:06:04 = RIAs as the Last Travel Agents & Investing in a Bubble 01:06:05-01:10:49 = Favorites Follow along with Howard on Twitter @howardlindzon and visit his website at howardlindzon.com. Don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative, and follow us on Twitter at @rcmAlts and our host Jeff at @AttainCap2,  or LinkedIn , and Facebook, and sign-up for our blog digest. And visit our sponsor, the CME Group at www.cmegroup.com to learn more about futures and options. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Thanks for listening to The Derivative. This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations nor reference past or potential profits, and listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk
Starting point is 00:00:35 of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. Welcome to The Derivative by RCM Alternatives, where we dive into what makes alternative investments go, analyze the strategies of unique hedge fund managers, and chat with interesting guests from across the investment world. We live in a rare asset world, right? Because valuations, throw them out the window, like seriously. Like you can't, if someone starts to talk about fundamentals with me, I'm like, are you fucking insane?
Starting point is 00:01:03 So we've lost. The script is gone. So in a world where there is no script and the government's printing money and no one wants to be poor and print their money, you have to assume this is now fixed into the system. Interest rates will rise based on nothing that's in the textbooks because they're not stopping what they're doing. We're screwed, but here we are. So in that world, anybody who talks fundamentals, I don't know, it's a greater fool theory at this point and you have to have a good thesis
Starting point is 00:01:37 and you have to have great money management. And so I believe in this rare asset thing and there's a certain amount of companies with rare assets. Hi, everyone. I'm back from my break, 10 days in Montana. And we've got a guest on today who knows a thing or two about hiking and biking up mountains when not picking out the next tech winners or starting his own companies. We've got Howard Linzen on today. He's the founder of Stock Twits, CEO of Social Leverage, and much, much more. Welcome, Howard. How are you? I'm good, thanks. You're in Coronado today? I am. It's another nice day. I am home alone. The kids are in college. My wife's working in Phoenix. So I'm getting, it's like Costanza. I'm getting a lot done here.
Starting point is 00:02:30 Right. What's your normal split between Phoenix and Coronado? I think it's like six, seven months Phoenix and a few months Coronado. And then on the road, COVID's been like eight months Phoenix, four months Coronado and then on the road COVID's been like eight months Phoenix four months Coronado but uh well that'll change a little bit as we as as as COVID as we learn to live with COVID doesn't seem like it's going anywhere so we'll just learn to live with it and then both your kids are in college yeah my daughter's graduated she works at Raleigh Road in New York it's a portfolio company but she's worked there over a year and was an intern there loves the whole fractional cultural uh asset uh ipos like collectibles yeah my son is a golf nut and he's at unlv uh doing like a pga hospitality program nice they figured out how to seo that and get kids that
Starting point is 00:03:27 search for for golf careers to go to unlv for four or five years good scam and they get to go to class actually with covet or what he sent me a picture yesterday it's pretty funny of him hitting into like one of those like machine you know like one of those i machine, you know, like one of those, I think the first, I mean, he's happy. It's just all golf all the time. So it's like, I don't even know what the hell they're doing there. Whatever it is, it's keeping them off the streets. And can you imagine going to school in Vegas? That would have been a nightmare for me, but I think it's a nightmare. I think Vegas is, you know, the Vegas that I remember was kind of, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:04 it was never classy. Yeah, a little sea. Sinatra era was like people wore suits and smoking jackets. But Vegas is great for food and friends. And it's a little overwhelming. Is he going to play golf there? He might try and walk on. I don't think he's good enough.
Starting point is 00:04:24 But, like, he's definitely going to play club golf and, and just loves the game. It's plus one. He's a great golfer. Yeah. I had Matt holler back on here who played at wake forest and he's like a plus one now. And it was,
Starting point is 00:04:38 we spent 10 minutes talking about the golf between him as a plus one. And the guys on tour is as big as between me as a 18 and him as a plus one he's like the numbers start to make little difference and they're just it's like richter scale like you know once you go from like a two to a plus one that's richter scale and then if you go to plus one plus two it's probably richter scale and you're plus four it's like bananas yeah yeah yeah um and then i wanted to talk to you too about cycling i'm a bit of a cyclist myself so what how often you when'd you get into that you seem to love it do you do peloton as well yeah i just got a peloton i'm like i had a weird
Starting point is 00:05:22 let's see i've been riding my whole life but like on and off and this last five years on and i'm definitely not in great shape i'm like fit but i only do a few it's not like i do weights and and i'm not like a stretch machine and do yoga i do a little bit of everything but like cycling and a little bit of running and hiking but it's it's 90 cycling is my fitness and um the it's just the kind of the one thing i do that's weird and different and not everybody does it but i love it and i do like the peloton i think it's like when i run out of time it's kind of a forced way to burn calories. It's very structured. And I love that part of it.
Starting point is 00:06:07 If I only have half an hour. You're an investor in Peloton? I own the stock. It's had a rough six months, I think. You know, I buy the dip type of company from it. It's one of my core eight to 80 positions. I think it's a crossover metaverse. You know, it's Netflix meets fitness meets data meets community. I mean, it's hard for them to screw it up at this point.
Starting point is 00:06:30 If the product remains good, like there's a few things. So far, I have no complaints. It's much like people love their Tesla. I think people love their Peloton. Obviously, Tesla is a bigger business, a harder business. But, you know, peloton's a fascinating company um so you don't buy into the it's a screen on a bike right like people are comparing it to like it is a screen on a bike but there's a fucking 59 subscription which makes me bullish
Starting point is 00:06:57 on netflix i think they're undercharging i think they have some elasticity if and again Netflix goodbye Pel, like again the world that we live in I'm off topic but we have a topic where we live in a rare asset world because valuations throw them out the window
Starting point is 00:07:20 like seriously if someone starts to talk about fundamentals with me i'm like are you fucking insane fundamentals aren't working at seed stage startups like you know what what i used to do in 2006 2007 you know at stock twits we raised money on a six hundred thousand dollar valuation i thought that was a good deal yeah like you i could go out and raise today on my brand and on stocktips i go raise the seed round at 20 million valuations so so so we've lost the script is gone um and so in a world where
Starting point is 00:07:54 there is no script and the government's printing money and no one wants to be poor and then print their money you have to assume this is now in bed the system. Like interest rates will rise based on nothing that's in the textbooks because they're not stopping what they're doing. So if interest rates are going to rise, it's not because some guy on CNBC has it figured out. They're going to rise for reasons that we don't understand today, and then they're going to start rising. I mean, again, based on what the textbooks say, we're screwed.
Starting point is 00:08:25 And obviously we're not. And based on what our politicians are doing and politicizing the markets, we're screwed. But here we are. So in that world, anybody who talks fundamentals, I don't know. It's a greater fool theory at this point. And you have to have a good thesis and you have to have great money management. And so I believe in this rare asset thing. And there's a certain amount of companies with rare assets.
Starting point is 00:08:52 You have a Tesla, right? I think I've seen you tweet about your Tesla. I wanted one. I was going to get one. I'm happy I didn't. Okay. I am going to eventually be a Tesla person when the range gets to a point where I can drive from Phoenix to San Diego without having to pull over for 40 minutes or half an hour. That's not what I want to do.
Starting point is 00:09:12 We've got one here in Chicago, but the use case is perfect, right? You go downtown, you go around. It never has to be supercharged. If I wasn't driving in a world that I want to drive, LA, Phoenix, San Diego, I think I'd have a Tesla. And I think once the range is 500 miles, and I think I'll be there because I don't want to pull over. That's like one of the perks I would imagine, you know, it's not stopping. Although the games are pretty fun in there, right? The kids are like, come on, let's supercharge. I want to play that game. Oh, wow. So yeah, so that community I'm starting to see is my friends.
Starting point is 00:09:47 I had a friend here visiting this week, and he had a Tesla, and I had to go help. I had to go to find a super state charger and blah, blah, this. And I got to see the community at large of what goes on behind the scenes of owning a Tesla, and it's like the people are hooked. He's built. Kudos to him. He's built, kudos to him, he's built. I think the financial
Starting point is 00:10:06 people that want to short it based on the financials, I'm sure they have a great textbook case. But what they don't understand is that it's a rare digital asset and he's a rare human being. And he's built, if the products suck, there'd be no stopping the short sellers, but the product's great. So he has a rare asset and we're seeing this in crypto. And now we're seeing it in, you know, with certain companies where the valuations are based on how people feel. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:36 Real quick on the Tesla, the, uh, when I have people in there, like finance people in Chicago and they see the screen and they see like the little body walking in a bike and they're like they get it it clicks in their brain i'm like oh they're collecting all this data and i'm like yeah exactly hold on looking all the data and they've built listen you got to go charge of the supercharger they've kept control of i think the right things they want to keep control of for the experience and tired to bet against that guy I'm not a user and I think that's cost me a fortune I think the lesson of Tesla and the lesson of Peloton and the lesson of Nike and the lesson of Google the companies that I really own and of and of
Starting point is 00:11:17 is my mistake with Tesla is not owning the product honor so you mentioned the eight for 80 and that's kind of what you're talking about explain dive into that a little bit more you think these are companies that will be around you know that people are yeah i mean they always everybody wants to create generational companies and we had those for decades exons of the world and maybe JP Morgans. But they weren't, I mean, the cloud changed everything, right? Like the cloud turned business on its head. We went from an extraction-based world to an expansionary world where, you know, if you put stuff in the cloud, anything's possible. And so we've got into some new growth paradigm where eventually we're a crypto where machines will just pay machines.
Starting point is 00:12:13 People may not like it, but I want to own growth. I want to own software companies that don't have any employees and then just our digital toll roads. And I think we're seeing that with Ethereum and Solana at some levels. People just pure software and everybody getting paid for contracts and gas fees and using the highway. And it's all being done on a ledger. And these are tremendous growth opportunities that may not have fundamentals the way textbooks and Warren Buffett and the true stock market fundamentals were created, but I think the crypto market is much like the stock market. It's just going to require a whole new set of fundamentals that people will agree upon. Now, in the meantime, anything can happen. Stocks can go up and down
Starting point is 00:13:05 like bananas, as we've seen. But until there's some agreed upon standard of fundamentals, shit's breaking. And it's pretty wild. And then you have lack of institutions with growth. And it's pretty fun to see retail make a fortune. I mean, literally tens of thousands of retail investors in crypto are making fortunes. They're the new, you know, go west young men. They're the new farmers of the agricultural revolution. It's a new breed of wealth. Truly amazing. Do you think there's a social, you know, getting deep right away here,
Starting point is 00:13:48 but do you think there's a social downside to that of like, if there's just software that makes money and you don't need employees, you don't need, right. Is it just, or then, Hey, you got to shift from being an employee to an investor. Yeah. That's what I think. I think we've, if you want to have some sort of life fulfillment, you need to be an investor. You're not going to get fulfillment
Starting point is 00:14:08 from driving an Uber in the new economy or living in the metaverse. You may get fulfillment as a creator. Of course you get fulfillment. There is the new tradesman, which is a creator. And that could be a digital career, could be a digital artist, could be a designer of apps.
Starting point is 00:14:26 But that's a narrow group of people that are going to be good enough to build products for this next generation. But did lawyers or accountants ever get job satisfaction? Were they happy? They were middle class. Were ad execs smoking cigarettes and entertaining clients? Was that a good business was that a good lifestyle you know glorified it in mad men but that looked like a pretty fucking shit lifestyle and housewives were miserable and doing coke yeah um so i think weren't a lot of bike riding going
Starting point is 00:14:58 on there so maybe maybe it's the opposite maybe we've been been living in a social travesty and now we're finally coming out of it where people don't have to be miserable, uh, treading the work. They don't have to be miserable being away from their kids. They don't have to be miserable getting on planes and dealing with weather cancellations and people coughing on them. So, uh, so I would say, I think everybody's got the spin wrong. i think people have been living in misery and now they get to live in some sort of freedom with their time but it's changed right like you know but i think it's all good because i'd rather invest than work yeah which leads me into you appear i'll throw out appear to have it all figured out.
Starting point is 00:15:51 Posting pics from the beach and up on your hikes and on the Reddit, you kind of fall into the social, the iceberg fallacy of just seeing what you want us to see. But having said that, right, do you think you designed that on purpose of like, here's the career I want to do. So I have this time or did that end as you went down this path and you ended up with this work-life balance and all this good time you have appeared I am 55 so it's not like I'm 30 and killing it you know I'm supposed to be somewhat successful by this age yeah so I think I'm like on pace with like the last generation you know I grinded i wish i i wish i wish i'd been more focused in my 30s and 40s and i think part of the humor of it all is just is just trying yeah it's a slice we're all faking it and our social profiles are a little bit i try and be pretty honest you can't
Starting point is 00:16:41 give everybody everything um but it seems if someone came to you and said, hey, I'll pay you eight times what you make now a year in your investments, plus the upside, whatever, right? If the economics were eight times better, but you got to go into this office five days a week, would you? Yeah, I don't think there's a job that anybody would pay me eight times of what I'm making. I feel pretty safe. I'm unemployable. I think, yeah, I mean, I built a life that is, I got the, like the path. I got everything just about right. But again, if it was right, I would have done this when I was 45. So I'm still 10 years further on.
Starting point is 00:17:19 It's not perfect. You know, I'd like to be a little bit younger to have all this freedom. So it's not perfect. It's just, luckily for me, I'm still young enough that I get to enjoy some of the fruits of this era, which is a digital era on the verge of becoming a metaverse era. But I firmly have one foot in the physical world still. I like riding. I like traveling. I like eating out, but I do like some of the changes that COVID brought because I think I don't like to worry about, you know, conspiracy theories and there's plenty of conspiracy theories that kind of make
Starting point is 00:18:00 sense to me, but at the same time, it is what it is. Like I'm not running the shop. Yeah. You know, I'm a classic trend follower. I'm like, OK, I'm aggravated. I'm cynical. I don't really trust government. I don't really trust corporations.
Starting point is 00:18:15 They're all fucking getting it. They're all going to get theirs. Yeah. But you seem to have a unique ability to say, like, I don't trust any of that, but I'm still fully invested. Right. Too many people are like, I don't trust any of that. So'm still fully invested right too many people are like i don't trust any of that so i'm in cash or i'm all in bitcoin right or they they take the wrong route and say i'm scared of all that so i'm not going to invest anything um yeah i mean all i got to do is not be the last guy out i don't need to be the first guy in and i don't want to be the
Starting point is 00:18:40 last guy out so with those two basic principles even assuming the market's rigged which i do every time i buy a stock i'm trying to figure out or a startup i'm trying to figure out what my downside is and what my potential upside is and if the math makes sense you know i stay in a in a in a in something um is that what you that's what you mean by yeah yeah yeah it's what i mean by trend following like i i i try and follow really smart people that that are in trades that that makes sense to me this goes to the 8 to 80 8 year olds use the products 80 year olds use the product uh there's obviously products that 8 year olds are using that you think you know if you want true growth you try and find a product that 80 year olds areolds are using, but you know that eight-year-olds are going to start using it or vice versa.
Starting point is 00:19:30 You know, like the metaverse, eight, 10-year-olds are using it, but you know, 80-year-olds will use it. That's where you get true growth. But I like to own with my real money companies that, you know, aren't as volatile. Like I say, they're used by eight-year-olds and eight-year-olds when the market sells off really hard. They go on sale a couple of times a year or once a year, and you buy them. Which is, what's that list look like?
Starting point is 00:19:55 Nike? Today, it looks like I'm scared because these companies are all overvalued. The list got hammered in the couple of Chinese stocks that I own, the 8 to 80, Tencent and Alibaba. So like I said, there's always constant reshuffling and gardening of your portfolio. But, you know, the last couple of months I've dropped China. I don't even know why I had it in there, you know. You know, I figured Tencent and Alibaba were like 8 to 80 company.
Starting point is 00:20:23 And they really are. Yeah. They just happen to be in China. Yeah, and they have to own some things that the government could just take away from them. Or just change the rules. They're changing shareholder base. So it's like, do I want that aggravation in my life? Do I believe they're going to zero?
Starting point is 00:20:42 No. Am I panicking? Probably. But at the same time, I don't like when the rules change. And so you have to adjust. So I have to constantly tune my portfolio to a life that I feel is fairer. It's all relative because the markets are rigged. But assuming that you believe that, and I do, you can still win because you only have to be right a few times. It's like back to my Montana.
Starting point is 00:21:18 We would tell him the joke there. You don't have to be faster than the bear. You only got to be faster than grandpa we were hiking with, right? Like, it doesn't matter that they're rigged. You only got to be faster than grandpa we were hiking with right like doesn't matter that they're rigged you only got to be faster than the guy that the rigging is going to get caught up to and I'm following smart people on technology that are 9 000 years ahead of everybody else too many people choose not to do the work to follow these people that have a career success of being right around growth and technology and so i have no ego if i
Starting point is 00:21:47 have to follow really smart people to make a buck i mean you couldn't talk about an easier way to to draft behind very smart people than an investing you can do it in sports you know like i said cycling you do it in sports these guys ride the Tour de France. They go 21 days. They generally are riding as a group for 18 of those days. And there's three or so days or a few hours a day where they're on their own and making decisions about what do they stay with the pack? Do they break away from the pack? And that's really what investing is, right? You don't have to, you can stay pretty close to the indexes and try and really figure out where you have a slight edge and power through with that one or two ideas that differentiate you from the index.
Starting point is 00:22:31 Or you can build your own portfolio. Or you can go very narrow because you really believe the people that you follow, whether it's around crypto or whether it's around commodities or whether it's around software, that you have an incredible edge and let other people do the work for you. So those are like Fred Wilson type people. Yeah, like it's not broken. The people that got me into crypto, they're not rocket scientists. They just have a history of being right about big technological trends. And it's know, it's up to me to, to allocate the proper amounts from my portfolio based on my risk profile and based on my time horizons. But I don't need to call Fred or Chris Dixon, or ask them to tweet, you know, I get people, hey, what do you think about Farfetch? And I'm like, the same as I thought about it two days ago, I don't know, like,
Starting point is 00:23:23 I'm not going to call Fred or Chris Dixon and go, what do you think about Bitcoin? I'll know when they are done. It won't be at the exact top, and they won't be buying at the exact bottoms. But I know directionally that these people are bullish. They have very little. They're not doing it for the money at this point. They have nothing but reputation risk so when you can line up people that have the capital the past history of being successful or right around their domain and they're taking reputation risk over financial
Starting point is 00:23:57 risk by sharing their their thoughts those are a really good cocktail for you trend following or what it would say drafting behind very smart people and and that's my little trick it's not really it's working man it's worked for like 15 years yeah and if people want to draft behind me great they should know what I'm doing which is I'm not a rocket science I'm drafting behind people that you know what I'm doing, which is I'm not a rocket science. I'm drafting behind people that, you know what I mean? So we're all playing this game. And that's why I think trend following works. You know, it's that old stick of bullhorn. And then someone hears and they spread the word.
Starting point is 00:24:34 And it's just, I'm trying to get as close to the source of true expertise as possible. But so in my world where we've had people, I think you know Eric Crittenden, right? Trend following is a loaded term. It's a defined term. We're tracking 85 global futures markets and currencies and commodities and
Starting point is 00:24:56 technically, systematically buying the breakouts above certain moving averages or levels. I believe in that too, but I just don't have the time to really live by it. But yes, Eric's great at that, and I believe in that. But so when you're saying trend following, it's more of a mantra instead of a, right? You're not saying, oh, Bitcoin broke below 42,000. I believe in that.
Starting point is 00:25:22 I just would rather take a much longer view of what a trend is and trade around it a little bit but i'm not as precise as a typical trend follower it is more of a mantra much like yoga is kind of a mantra everybody practices it differently and so let's just call like to me yoga and trend following are the same thing like they're just mantras correct well i think it's just if you have a method that you can apply consistently that's the trick right no matter what it is but if you can do it consistently you're gonna right if you're doing it this way for a year then flip another way for a year and flip back and forth that's where you get into trouble yeah i mean it would be a bummer for me if like chris dixon retired or mark andreason
Starting point is 00:26:05 retired or fred wilson said i'm not writing anymore i'm like what there goes my edge and so i'm constantly looking for people that are right a lot and i have them on my podcast like my podcast is just basically me trying to be nice to people that i want to like make sure they still respond to my emails whether it's jeff richards or omali people that are want to make sure they still respond to my emails, whether it's Jeff Richards or Om Malik. People that are just living inside these trends and putting their own money on the line and are willing to share. They're going to be wrong a lot,
Starting point is 00:26:36 but if you can catch a few big trends, and I've caught a few, which is just software and now crypto, I don't know how much more you can do right and so that's what i think about trend following is like find really smart people that have domain experience and then just stay out of their way and leave them alone so it's more social social trend very much social very much um technology focused and what do you i'm jumping all over the I'm gonna ask this question saying but back to crypto like so what percent do you think is and you're not giving investment
Starting point is 00:27:13 advice here but just for you what percent makes sense right people like hey it's worth one percent of your net worth just as a call and I don't I really struggle with that because I've gone from zero to 80% down to 50%. It depends on my private portfolio, right? I have a very barbelled approach. I've shared it with Josh in a book. But because of so much risk that I take in my age and my Canadian conservative background, I'm very high cash, always have been, because I'm always writing checks. They're weird, obscure things.
Starting point is 00:27:46 And sometimes I write 10 a month and sometimes I don't write any for a year. So there's periods where I'm flush and not thinking about investing or beating the indexes. And then there's other periods where I'm like, oh, my God, I got to raise cash because it's not even that I own stocks or crypto. It's just all my money is in the private market. So for me with crypto, it started out as like, okay, I got to have some exposure. Now, I would say it's over 50% of my liquid net worth. Preston Pyshko, MD, PhD Really? David Sherman, MD, PhD Yeah. Preston Pyshko, MD, PhD 50. And then how diversified is that? Like 10 plus?
Starting point is 00:28:19 David Sherman, MD, PhD I don't know, because it's in some funds that are somewhat liquid. So it's like, it's very illiquid if you said it, but it's worked for me, you know, whether it's been helium or Solana or serum, it's, you know, I'm letting other people invest for me in this space. Again, there's another thesis I have around trend following, which is like, I don't mind paying fees. You know, trend followers have always had high fees because the returns are potentially outsized.
Starting point is 00:28:45 And so the type of trend follower I believe is, you know, I never believed in, if you believe in indexing, I get it. But if I'm a trend follower, I'll pay fees for people who are really good at it and have a great insights into catching and riding trends. So in crypto, I've just paid managers. And then I learned from them. So I treat them as my research department. And if you find a few good ones, their research becomes your way of doubling down or tripling down on a position they may hold on your own through Coinbase or through an exchange. But luckily, I've been in some good fun, but I would say I have my liquid. It's it's over 50%,
Starting point is 00:29:26 but I'm not uncomfortable because I feel like there's fundamentals developing. So in 2017, there were no fundamentals. It was purely the wild West. And this time around, it's almost all fundamentals. They, their evaluations are crazy, but it's almost all fundamentals. So do you, so you actually care what they're doing or you just do? At this point, you're an idiot after 2017 if you're going to speculate and truly not understand the use cases and the development in the communities around these projects and true fundamentals. Like how much is being staked?
Starting point is 00:30:04 How much developer? What's happening on these platforms? And so we're starting to see that take shape. It's not really, it's not pure fundamentals yet, but we're seeing the beginnings of fundamentals and the morning stars of crypto getting built and the ways to measure fundamentals whether we like them or not there's there's there whether it's dune there's projects getting funded
Starting point is 00:30:33 and and that are creating the fundamentals that will be accepted as generally that people will share data around that says oh this is undervalued based on this metric. Yeah. On how many people use the protocol or whatever. Yeah. That's exciting. Like, that's why I think it's more like stocks than it is currencies. And do you think it's more, you think people would be too late? Like, is the trends already well established? No, it's just starting.
Starting point is 00:30:58 I think these breakouts in the summer after the horrific, you know, Chinese, like kind of like a one month crash or two month crash in april may or june whenever it was um it was pretty violent and you could kind of pin it to the chinese stopping the mining and but as we as we see again the decentral that only helps decentralization so it seems like it's like a roach you know crypto you you think you got one and there's 10 more so um i think decentralization is just coming yeah and i think you can fight it or you can watch it or you can do what i'm doing is participate and because it's coming all the things that come with an ecosystem are happening research to uh fundamentals contextual you know understandings of relative values and um growth like some of these blockchains,
Starting point is 00:32:05 whether it's Solana or Ethereum, are incredible, the amount of activity that's happening on it. And we're seeing that with people with gas fees being as high as they are. So I try and tell people, it's like Visa or MasterCard. If you were, when people were, you know,
Starting point is 00:32:22 sending money over a wire or passing bags of gold or however they're doing before a debit card in the visa mastercard the first five years or 10 years of visa mastercard people were like what i don't trust that yeah what am i going to do if i travel like we traveled when i was a kid with american express travelers checks taped around our body yeah that was the that was the gold you couldn't lose your traveler's checks that seems so archaic yeah and well it not seems it is so for people to dismiss crypto when it really does make sense around having a digitized ledger um pretty fascinating with that comes great risk you know fraud and and and uh but again this is this is happening whether people
Starting point is 00:33:10 like it or not yeah and we could spend hours on like right but there's there for sure a lot of risk but not too late and to me i like that you're saying hey i don't have the time or the skill set to go in and pick 10 of these 500 roaches out there. Like let the pros, let some pros pick out the roaches for me. Or let the pros circle 50 and then I'll try and pick two based on like my, who I read and how I understand and what the direction and what the angle of ascent is or descent. I'll still apply my own weird rudimentary trend following and biases to these things, but I'd like it to be circled to 50. I don't want to study 500 block. So moving on, I think you've said somewhere, i'm going to attribute it to you anyway of it's never been a better time to be an investor um right with all the tools research quotes
Starting point is 00:34:13 uh access fractional shares yada yada yada um so just what's your general thought on that is that true was that you who said that yeah it's it's me. I've been saying it forever. And I think we had this long period of, you know, I think you give people a phone, a social network, bandwidth, and you just can't put it back in the bottle. And then you throw in the macro picture, which is government's printing money and tax laws that are forcing people to do estate planning that are forcing you to get, whether you like your kids or not, passing the money down to your kids is really, we see it with Trump. It's the tax
Starting point is 00:35:01 thing that creates the Trump family. It's not any sort of genius. Once you have money, you protect it by passing it down. That's the state. So there's going to be this tremendous trickle down of capital, whatever you call this from the last two generations to Gen Z and millennials. So if you are not teaching your kids how to invest, you have really fucked yourself and the fortunes you have built because that's what they're going to be doing yeah you know maybe you wanted to go to law school but if they were practicing while your kids are under
Starting point is 00:35:34 achievement there's no 50 year old lawyer that's happy or fulfilled so um so these this next generation is going to be an investing class. And they're going to have time on their hands. And they're going to do weird things. And they'll be investing in all kinds of things. And they'll be tracking. They'll have to be software that tracks all this. And they'll have to be ways to organize all this and ways to invest,
Starting point is 00:36:01 like we're seeing with Zoom. No one thought they'd be writing checks without meeting people of Zoom. There's just no way people, and that's the only way to do it. We've got a bunch of funds that we work with, like a guy moved to Jackson Hole, a guy's in Mississippi,
Starting point is 00:36:18 like places that the allocators wasn't on their route, they were never going to visit. Now they're getting meetings, Zoom meetings and getting checks. Yeah, I mean, we raised a hundred million dollar fund without going on the road. And we struggled for years
Starting point is 00:36:31 to raise capital doing face-to-face meetings. So who's to say what's right? All we can do is like take the inputs that are around us and do the best, you know, that's why I said, you've got to play with these tools you can't just say zoom stupid or you can't dismiss all these tools so crypto
Starting point is 00:36:51 is probably and again i'm late so you say is it late i think it's early from when it was first whispered whispered to me in 2011 um i think we're at the 94 95 era of internet like the uu net exodus uh part of the internet yeah and i think the wallets are the netscape internet explorer moment where you know this is basic this internet is all about money and transactions and tracking and communication but i love to tell this story if i could see who was who bought my apple shares in 2004 after it doubled and i was so excited that the ipod i thought it was overvalued because the ipod 6 wouldn't be as successful as the ipod in a world where i could track who bought that stock from me and then we could have a laugh about has he held it or where that stock went you can't do that in the old world in this new world you could literally you know we
Starting point is 00:37:46 joke about nfts or whatever but you can literally start tracking these things from day one and see where they end up yeah although that's like my dystopian future that's a little scary right of like some guy's showing up at your door of like i want my apple shares back yeah no i mean listen but it's happening you can hate it or you can distrust it, but this is the world that is coming because the general ledger makes sense. Because governments can't. This whole idea of like, just going to sell a house with the trust
Starting point is 00:38:16 and the title and the this and the that, these kids are not going to put up with that. They've figured out a new way to just take title and point to a digital spine or a ledger to say this is mine yeah and what happened and as as it's become super easy to invest as an individual is it also like we're just giving everyone the ability to shoot themselves in the foot oh yeah does it become too dangerous like where do we cross that line really it's never been a better time and it's never been more dangerous i would have to agree um but that danger is great for wily veterans is where it's like
Starting point is 00:38:50 hey sorry kids get your fucking lickings because i went through the same thing i'm licking my chops you know this is why i say teach your kids to start investing young because in 20 years they're going to be the veterans and it's like learning english you got to get better at it and it's a language and the sooner kids can learn this language or the sooner anybody of sound mind can learn to invest the better um but do you think it's come over gamified like too easy right like the rooster on the pod whose cousin was the the kid who unfortunately killed himself after the margin call on Robinhood. Yeah, I mean, it's over gamified, obviously. But what does that mean?
Starting point is 00:39:31 Yeah. Because we were over interneted in 99. We had Global Crossing. We had WorldCom. We had all these fucking quests. We had all these people laying cable to get people on the internet. So who are we going to blame? Like, let's blame them because we wouldn't be trading on E-Trade if these guys hadn't laid
Starting point is 00:39:50 the cable. So we've had this massive onboarding in 1999. So the internet bubble at least gave us millions of people online. Now we have this new bubble and it is a bubble and it's created by covid and the fed and and and just people having all this free time and technology and software blah blah blah and we have this massive new bubble but let's be honest about it what it was all going to happen anyways and now all we did was get these hundreds of millions and millions uh maybe billions of people onto this digital world right they would call it the metaverse call it whatever you want but they're living digitally and it may be because the government made up covid but whatever it was inevitable was paying with cash is stupid i had it paying with a debit card is stupid so now we fast forward at everything you know we used to see
Starting point is 00:40:43 telephone poles and now if we see a telephone pole we go why is there a fucking telephone pole wrecking my view why isn't this underground so again like this stuff was coming all we've done is speed it up and with this speed comes gamification comes people doing weird things and it's unfortunate it really is but i don't think it's over gamified like schwab and if you think about like schwab and etre in 99 day tech in 2000 they were all bells and when you would open up your you would open up your desktop and there'd be like blinking lights and like red and green it was like a zoo when and now it's just your mobile phone so i again like it's i don't think it's any more gamified than it was in 99 i think it's just your mobile phone so again like it's I don't think it's any more gamified than it was in 99
Starting point is 00:41:26 I think it's just better designed because you have to look at this thing on your phone and size up the market off one little screen so I actually think it's just better designed which just has different funnels and if people
Starting point is 00:41:42 aren't careful and go down the wrong funnels it's a pretty nasty rabbit hole like if people aren't careful and go down the wrong funnels it's it's a pretty nasty rabbit hole like if you go to youtube and you you declare yourself a trumpster or someone or a libtard you're going to get served videos that just embed you further into that world yeah that's gamification too it's actually more horrific because people are just getting fed dung all day. So we got to define what gamification is. There's been some tragedies that have come with this onboarding of 100 million new investors. It's a tragedy.
Starting point is 00:42:19 I don't know how you protect against it. And building on that, where do you think you personally, since you've gotten into crypto, have you ever been a futures guy? Have you ever traded futures? No, I really am really confused by leverage. I think it's my conservative nature. I don't like the idea of like 1% being worth 20%. So I think it's a real skill that I think people have to be able to manage positions that have, that I just understand cash and equity. I don't understand. Wait a minute. I'd never traded options. I don't like.
Starting point is 00:42:53 Yeah. It was going to be my next question on options because everything you just said, it's even magnified in the option space, right? Like options volume is its highest ever. I've made some humongous mistakes, and I've written about them. Every time I've dabbled, I think I know something, and I've just got my ass handed to me. So again, I'm never going to get the returns
Starting point is 00:43:15 that a great features or options trader would get. But again, I'm living within my own... I'm not competing against everybody. I'm competing... The game that I'm playing is just, it's a good question. I mean, the game that I'm playing is just trying to, you know, make a great living. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:35 And save, make a lot of money. Yeah. Because that's the game, upward to the right. There's a million ways to play the game. Are you a billionaire yet getting close i mean it depends i mean this depends on depends on the print i'm kidding it depends on how much money the government continues to print at some point we'll all be billionaires i mean honestly it's a joke yeah right like what does it mean when we all are what does it mean anymore
Starting point is 00:44:00 no i mean you look at real estate prices i'm like i don't understand this thing like i thought when i bought my first home with my wife in 1997 and we paid like 120 grand for house in phoenix and we're like oh my god this is insane you know and so what do i know like inflation is bananas yeah i'm sure it's not cheap there in Coronado. But I think it's undervalued. So again, like we go back and forth. Like I think California beachfront property, not inland, beachfront is undervalued. Yeah, there's only one Coronado. Well, there's only one.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Yeah, there's only a certain amount of real estate. I'm not a real estate person, but at some level where crypto prices are and where other things are, I'll say, hey, I just would rather own real estate. And so at some point you get in your life where you realize you understand that I'd rather own a Porsche or another piece of real estate than an NFT. And right now kids are all in on digital right they're vice versa i don't want cars and i don't want stuff in their house and i don't need four seasons of clothes or or some fancy dress they're spending their money on their community and how to show off in their own way just like you and i showed off with the first flat screen or cd-rom collection or our suits or wool suits or you know what i mean or our dress shoes yeah yeah
Starting point is 00:45:36 or watch they're doing what i mean listen so certain things that come back in style too like watches are important because there's a supply demand thing. And there's a artistic, there's art involved in culture and all that stuff. But when it relates to how kids are behaving, I think they're doing, based on the world they live in, digital makes complete sense. And what, have you gotten into the NFT space at all? No, but I'm totally get it. See, I'm a community guy. Like StockTwits has thought about this forever, right?
Starting point is 00:46:12 Like we should have had avatars for people that wanted to pay. Like we haven't, we've missed many things along this trend because we think like stock people. Like, okay, leave people alone. Let them talk about their stocks. But there's all kinds of community things. And that's what NFTs are. They're just little communities some of them are bigger communities the affinity around objects and they're weird to us old people right i'm like i get crypto
Starting point is 00:46:39 sort of i under i own some i understand it but then the nft seems totally out in left field to me which seems weird when i'm already in the crypto lane, but it's like, come on. Well, crypto doesn't mean anything unless you can use it. Right. I totally get the NFTs. I didn't get the NBA Topshop part because I'm like, okay, that seems very narrow.
Starting point is 00:47:02 Yeah. But I do get the JPEG stuff in people paying for a rare thing if they love it. And with it comes community. It's like you would join, you know, people join Riviera Country Club, and you can't join if you live in LA. So the only reason to join Riviera is if you can't live there. So, I mean, what do you play? One month a year and you pay 300 grand a year?
Starting point is 00:47:24 Yeah. How is that different than buying nft that gets you access to a community that you may use every day right but i guess that's where people old people get confused like what how is it linked to a community i'm just buying a jpeg but i get to show it off in my community because everybody may get a password that owns that JPEG to a room, a telegram room or a Discord room where they talk about certain things or they have access to a club. Again, I don't know, but it's no different than people joining a club or back in Pharaoh's time praying to a gold cow that they built That they built themselves and carry it around and felt that was what they would rally around. These are just new forms of community and the value system and the fundamentals make no sense.
Starting point is 00:48:18 I will say the fundamentals make no sense, but, and that's why I'm not buying them. I don't like buying something and then seeing the value change 90 a day yeah i like bit and ass that are like stable my my pet theory is that these chicago prop firms and maybe some swiss ones and whatnot just got together in a bar late one night and they're like trading this stock stuff's boring we've got the game rigged this is all figured out let's create something that we can trade against each other and really show our true skill, right?
Starting point is 00:48:48 Which was crypto and now NFTs. I think there's some truth to that. I just think it's not them. It's the people left that got that and built their own. Yeah, there's no one at those places saying that. Those people left are ready to build FTX and coin. Well, I don't know you see these pictures of like the yeah i've heard you on another thing it used to be about how many screens you had
Starting point is 00:49:10 when but some of these shops still have all those screens and in six of them are the nfts they're like sitting there swinging these nfts all day yeah yeah no i mean you talk about gamification the world had to be designed you had to be able to understand the market by looking at this screen that's a skill you may not like that i learned that skill that's no different than we went from paper trading to screen training to electronic trades the new training is how do i size up all the markets and get it onto one little screen we've done that now the world is shrunk down to this screen i can open why i can show you my stock twitch page and you go i understand the markets now let's now we're going in the reverse direction where people will start to enjoy more screens again because they've learned how to read the market on this little
Starting point is 00:49:56 screen shouldn't they be able to enjoy it on 10 screens so this is the art part of it it's like we're going to have a reimagining what a a desktop looks like. I'm back talking to you from a desktop. I haven't had a desktop in five years. So, because of Zoom, who would have thought it was because of a camera? So, now that I have this beautiful M1 Apple chip machine, I can't wait
Starting point is 00:50:17 to open KoiFin, and I can't wait to have seven screens open. But I know that I'm only checking them once in a while. I'm not having them flash at me and I'm not really getting anything out of it other than the beautiful assemblage of data that I get to put together. But I'm not like staring at it all day
Starting point is 00:50:34 and debating what gold's doing and oil's doing and how everything's related. So I think there's now we're going to go, now that we've shrunk everything down here, some would call it gamification. I would call it just great, elegant design. Now, you thought we had gamification. These people complain about gamification over the last two years.
Starting point is 00:50:54 Just wait till you see what's coming with crypto and with leverage and swaps and with derivatives. And the people that thought there was gaming, they really were mistaken. The gaming part has just started. And do you think it's the SEC woefully lagging, right? It's like Uber just said, oh, screw the regulations. We're just going to go in here and we'll figure out the registration part later. Yeah, at some level yeah i mean look at ftx they've they've decided to play friendly recently and like they they spent
Starting point is 00:51:31 out binance's investment you know binance is like fuck the us yeah the rest of the world's pretty damn big and so again there's all these like maneuverings underneath you've got it if you want to do business in the US, there's rules. I think that's fantastic. I want to trade within some, even though I think it's rigged, I would prefer to trade within some defined set of rules. Yeah, where you know if the theft happens, you might have self-protection. First of all, you don't know because I've traded things and no,
Starting point is 00:52:01 we're still getting screwed and I don't trust anything. But I do like the semblance of rules i wish the sec would enforce them more i mean there's plenty of rules that they they've chosen not to enforce whether it's around elon musk or barstool or all these guys stocks i think it's criminal um but that's your thought yeah what's your opinion but if they can't, if in plain sight, they won't hold the laws to certain people, that sucks. So instead, we're going to get more laws that hurt you and I. So, yeah, I have strong opinions about that. But I really believe in the SEC, the idea of the SEC and some governing body to set some rules. So what's the difference between Portnoy spouting that all off and somebody following like
Starting point is 00:52:45 a hot stock on stock twins um again i'm not i'm not well a portnoy's example is he's he's literally saying i'm an idiot yeah he's saying that's an excuse and i just call bullshit i'm like no you're not an idiot yeah you are a promoter and you are running a gambling site and then you're asking for people to go to jail on a brokerage site which is regulated you know what i mean and then you're investing in competitors and not disclosing it and it's just so many conflicts yeah but again buyer beware like all right like i'm not gonna make a stand and go on TV and say, hey, Burstel. I'm just like, I've chosen to say I don't trust the guy. I don't want to X them out of all my feeds.
Starting point is 00:53:34 I don't want to hear anything about it. But I talk with friends who are like this. I'm like, but you don't trust him, do you? Like, just seeing him talk, you can't trust him. And they're like, oh, no, he built that whole thing. He's the smartest guy out there. I'm like's very did but he's also blatantly promoting these things and that it'll last until it doesn't last yeah but i mean he's a sports guy and he's built a great sports brand stock stuff was funny and then i realized i'm an idiot for promoting it
Starting point is 00:53:59 because it's all just about driving people to his sports and gambling. Yeah, exactly. So I feel like I got manipulated. I'm an idiot. I'm the dummy that got manipulated. That's fun. 10x leverage on that, right? Of like, hey, every idiot that comes here,
Starting point is 00:54:16 I'm getting 10 views to my gambling site. Yeah, I make mistakes. Like I got sucked into the whole drama of it, and I followed it, and I was part of the game, and then I just said enough. Like I don't trust them. so why would i talk about him um but he's not you can't stop him no and and if he's going to be stopped or elon musk is going to be stopped it's for breaking the rules and somebody's got to hold these people accountable to the rules uh and that's that's where we're at and we saw this with trump it's
Starting point is 00:54:45 like there's a different set of rules um and that's dangerous maybe the canadians will say this no i just think buyer beware you have to understand that the rules are changing lately and um and invest accordingly like there's no one really there to protect you especially in the crypto world if you're going to do this, you've got to be prepared that your account could get cleaned up. Which is you're comfortable having 50% knowing that that could get cleaned up.
Starting point is 00:55:14 Yeah. Well, luckily for me, what's the difference? How much different is my... Again, these are all different depending on where you are. Yeah. Then I'd have another problem and I'd have to liquidate, bring it over, figure figure out it's just not even worth it to me and i'm bullish enough but yes i am taking that type of risk and that's a little bit scary but you don't have to sell your house and get divorced and all that's yeah if that went to zero everybody can laugh at me and i just don't think it's going to happen and and at the same time
Starting point is 00:55:48 um it wouldn't change my life yeah i'd be mad and it would be very frustrating but it would shrink the game and i know how to play the other side of the game so it's a risk yeah but that's what you get paid for. Do you think this all has never been easier for individual investors? Is this the death knell for RAs, for mutual funds, or will they always exist? What are your thoughts on that? Well, RAs, there's a huge revolution going on. I think RAs that left, I think people should pay for advice. So I think RAs that are good at what they do, they're still travel agents that have survived and real estate agents. So I think if you have a good RA, they're definitely worth one plus percent. And if you have a shitty RA,
Starting point is 00:56:40 they're not worth freeze to lower price or to freeze to a higher price so but I think this is your money I think everybody should have financial advisors some of them you won't pay like Fred Wilson is he a financial advisor mine yes I just don't call him for financial advice right and he doesn't build me but there's certain people that you you you know, I have Charlie, like I have people that manage my money for me and just try and help me think through asset allocation and these things. I'm still going to make mistakes, but I truly believe the RIA industry is ripe for growth and disruption and all kinds of chaos. It seems counter to the individual investor. Everything's on a screen. I can click through.
Starting point is 00:57:28 I don't need rent. These kids, as we're calling them, don't want to talk to anyone. They just want to click, click, click. Today, I think as things get complicated and as they get their families and they have other things going on in their life and they're not trading NFTs and crypto and they want to own 8 to 80 companies with cash flow. Again, I just think the service business around investing
Starting point is 00:57:52 is going to be a big business. And you have this huge transition from 60-40 portfolios to what is that 40% in bonds? What is that going to look like in 20 years? Yeah. And so I think there's, I think good RAs are in high demand. And I think bad RAs are screwed,
Starting point is 00:58:18 just like the bad travel agents are screwed because technology is there to help people do this stuff themselves. That's going to, I'm going to title the pod. Howard thinks RAs are like travel agents. Yeah. There's still some alive. I don't know if that's truly the title, but what I, what I mean is to still use a travel agent because they know the cities and they, you know, that seems you and I would never do that. But I think financial advisors are really good around one area,
Starting point is 00:58:42 whether it's venture capital or stock picking, can make a living. If you're just doing pure asset allocation, that's a tough BNRA. But if you have- Estate planning and all the rest. Yeah, if you can do taxes and really help people with trusts,
Starting point is 00:58:59 and I've gone through all this, it's very complicated. So I think RAs are fine. Which also leads into your like talk about something that needs disruption right of like here's plug in all your situation and out comes a solution that gets automatically engineered for you yeah it's not just that it's like you got if if bonds aren't an option you've got 40 let's say you want to take 20 of that and speculate in it you know ras don't have the tools that allow their customers
Starting point is 00:59:26 to have software that talks to all these things. You know, there's Orion software. You know, I study this a lot. There's Orion, as I would call it. Orion, sorry, Orion. But there's all these archaic ways that RAs have to hodgepodge to communicate with their clients for whatever the rules are. And that stuff needs to be upgraded a thousand percent. So that excites me because I think RAs
Starting point is 00:59:54 are important, but I also think RAs aren't doing the best by their clients because they're selling a 60-40 asset allocation in a world where maybe that 40% should be in venture and in crypto and higher cash. You know what I mean? So my main question is, what does a portfolio look like for someone in their 30s that just inherited a lot of money? Is it 100% NASDAQ? Is it 60% NASDAQ, 20% cash, 20% venture capital? It definitely shouldn't be bonds i don't i just don't believe in it um return free risk as the new saying goes right well it's not a new saying it's the little reality yeah like i can't understand the math so i can understand why google will borrow at zero percent that's smart. It seems very smart.
Starting point is 01:00:48 But I can't see why I would lend Google at 0%. Yeah, yeah. Well, because you want to get your money back, right? If it's huge. I don't want my money back. I'm comfortable taking risks. And that's why I'm saying people need to teach their kids how to take risks and how to behave and how to take responsibility for taking that risk and understand risk. Do you, I use for my kids loved. I don't know if you know that.
Starting point is 01:01:10 Yeah. You know, I was, you got any recommendations? Yeah. I think it's a great product, David. You know, we almost invested. We've looked at the company for a while. He's a really smart kid. There's no one that's really owned that space, but loved is a good product. Do you like it? Yeah. My kids loved it. Cause it was like,
Starting point is 01:01:28 it bucketed everything. Right. So my daughter was like, Oh, I want, I'm interested in environment or like something earthy. Right. And then she was like,
Starting point is 01:01:35 and it gave you these different choices and you could invest in the whole bucket or go different choices. And then my son was like, no, I like EA sports. So he wanted to just click through and get like actual invest in EA sport. So it gave, yeah, it was nice. I just think that's the type of things that, you know,
Starting point is 01:01:53 I think you're doing the right thing. Like they're, they're, they're figuring out and they can look at their account and see the results. So, um, We put a bunch of the money in, in March of last year. So he's like, but so now my new job is like, it's not always going to be like this, right? It's not going to double. But maybe it is. Maybe your new job is to say, listen, we live in a new paradigm.
Starting point is 01:02:13 No, I agree with you. It's a bubble. And I say that comfortably, but again, the bubble could go on for three years and I don't want to leave 600% on the table if my timing is off. So, yeah. to leave 600 on the table if if my timing is off so yeah yeah so but we are living in some kind of weird you know but that's your trend but you don't get worried about like the bubble could end tomorrow and like the crypto crash right it's down i assume it will and i just and you know march was pretty bad or may for crypto everything was down 50%. Again, there is no
Starting point is 01:02:46 risk-free return. But that's not an exit for you, right? You're saying this trend is still in place, this long-term trend. I'm not going to get spooked out. Until I'm wrong. You'll end up giving back stuff. But
Starting point is 01:03:00 it's like you're doing with your kids. Get them involved early and often and get them to make decisions. And they'll make bad decisions and good decisions. But the sooner they learn this language as they're learning with you and love, some kids are learning with Robin Hood, the sooner the better. Yeah. And we'll stick with the parent corner for a second. How do you – my son's into golf.
Starting point is 01:03:27 He's a seventh grader on the team, school team. Like, how'd you keep your son interested? Or was he pushing you to keep playing? I mean, I wasn't a tiger dad, but he just loved it. And I got him in earlier. I mean, in theory, I should have pushed him harder because there was about a six, seven year period where he stopped playing and did everything else. I got them in earlier. I mean, in theory, I should have pushed them harder because there's about a six, seven-year period where he stopped playing and did everything else. I feel that's good for kids, though, too.
Starting point is 01:03:50 I mean, like in basketball, I don't think there's a better sport than golf. You can play it your whole life, and you can never really master it. And it's a good parent-kid type of lifetime game. What's your handicap? My body type. The pear-shaped human body.
Starting point is 01:04:14 My sense of humor. No athletic ability. I don't know. I'm like an eight. That's good. Yeah. It's got to be exciting. When did your son pass you?
Starting point is 01:04:25 Because I'm nearly there. I'm like an 18 or 16. I was about 16 when I started. I've come close to beating him a few times. I've beat him on nine holes now occasionally. I can't hold it together. I actually beat him for 18. I think you were there when I beat him for 18 max at one point.
Starting point is 01:04:42 It's rare. The last time I beat him, he was kind of happy about it he was like wow yeah way to go pops yeah it won't happen again dad but it was pretty cool and he brought me the next day so but it was about 16 he passed me and then i had to tell the story of like a couple years ago and we were what was your old festival called stocktober fest i was gonna say lynn sanity but no that was uh jeremy lynn stocktober fest so we were gonna come out to there talk trend following our type of trend following um and we got on a call once i think you had just finished running and you were like oh my legs i'm car bloating i had all this pasta
Starting point is 01:05:22 you went on like a six minute rant on pasta and car bloating for your legs i'm carb loading i had all this pasta you went on like a six minute rant on pasta and carb loading for your legs i'm like who is this crazy man um so good to see you actually have somewhat of a rational brain here as we're chatting yeah did you still carb load the legs or what no i mean i'm just worried like biking is one of those sports where you burn a lot of calories and shouldn't be surprised that you feel like eating a lot of calories no perfect you know biking just gets me hungry i mean the perfect world would just be not eating like a pig and not working out that hard yeah but uh there's a trade-off you know i like to eat uh pasta and carbs so therefore i must work out we finished with some quick like five favorites so you can just give a quick answer uh so favorites
Starting point is 01:06:17 your bio says you're into in search of the perfect sleep solution you have a favorite sleep solution what does that mean i've been back experimenting now but unfortunately for me it's still uh ambient it just works you know i need to sleep and it's kind of an easy hook what happens when you can't sleep you're just thinking of all the stuff's running through your head yeah it's just kind of a bad uh bad cycle of uh not being able to turn off the brain and it's it's probably a trick that I can master under the right scenario, but the drug works. I'm kind of a sucker for it. Perfect. This episode brought to you by AMM.
Starting point is 01:06:56 And favorite golf course, two questions. Favorite one you've played, favorite one you'd like to play. I would say Pebble i don't remember it's been 10 15 years but i would say pebble i'd really love playing with my friends in la at bel air riviera um and then i'm not at an exploit like same with restaurants i don't really i'm not chasing another like i've once i find something i like I'll just keep asking to do the same thing. Like whether it's dumplings or pasta or steak, I'm not constantly in search. Sleep is something, yes. We're humans, we need it. I'm constantly tinkering and trying to figure it out. When it comes to golf or food
Starting point is 01:07:39 or anything else, it's like, no, if I find something good, I'll just keep going until it's not good. So you don't have augusta on the bucket list or something no i mean first of all i think it looks really hard but of course i wouldn't yeah but i'm not calling my friends going how do we get on right right yeah um favorite bike ride that i've ever done i think uh i don't have a favorite you know I have my go-to which is kind of boring which here in Coronado or around Phoenix um I've had some incredible rides but you know these the hard rides that are memorable you don't want to do again because they're just punishing and they're not enjoyable they're just you're doing it to do it do you watch
Starting point is 01:08:25 tour de france do you ever want to go do like the tourmalet or something i don't understand just like car racing i don't understand how the timing works and just doesn't seem fair how are they so close after 21 days so i think the whole thing's stupid well it's because i think it's a beautiful sport and they figured out a way to wreck it with like declaring a winner well it's like you say, right? They're just back in the pack, not wasting their energy out in front, back in the pack for most of it and just spend super little time. No, but it's already narrowed down to a certain few before whoever put in the most time
Starting point is 01:08:56 and every team picks their king. I just don't like the whole, I love the sport, hate the whole idea of a winner. Understood. And you said no favorites but favorite coronado restaurant that you go for your dumplings and your steaks there's nothing on coronado not promoting anything better we have to do better i'm a big fan of uh hane sushi and the dumpling inn so it's easy to find me at one of those two places done we're gonna go there next time um and then favorite as you can see with my uh banner behind me favorite star wars character
Starting point is 01:09:31 i don't know i never was into it at all ever i guess chewbacca just because of manscaping great for my business we'll take it can you do a a Chewbacca? You know his voice. Is that the right character? That was it. You nailed it. Don't know it, but that was a good trade for Disney. Paid Lucas $2 billion and made probably $10 billion off it already. And helped them launch Disney+.
Starting point is 01:10:00 But anyway, thanks, Howard. It's been fun. We will talk to you soon and best of luck with everything. All right. Thanks for doing this. Crypto to the moon. See you. All right.
Starting point is 01:10:11 Take care. Cheers. The Derivative is brought to you by CME Group. CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse futures and options exchange. For more information and educational resources about futures and options, visit cmegroup.com. You've been listening to The Derivative. Links from this episode will be in the episode description of this channel. Follow us on Twitter at rcmalts and visit our website to read our blog or subscribe to our newsletter at rcmalts.com. If you liked our show, introduce a friend and show them how to subscribe. And be sure to leave comments. We'd love to hear
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