The Dispatch Podcast - Dispatch Live Unlocked: On the Ground in Iowa and New Hampshire

Episode Date: January 16, 2024

Steve Hayes and Sarah Isgur kicked off our Iowa conversation with Republican strategist and Iowa guru David Kochel. The three give a play-by-play of the issues plaguing the American people before diving into the GOP candidates’ helpless caucus attempts. Andrew, Chris and Kevin join the stream to answer the question we’re all wondering: Do the Iowa results even matter? Jonah joins for a hot second to give his take on the voters having too much power and David (Drucker) and Mike join in the last half to talk about Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis’ ground campaigns.  Watch on YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Greetings, everyone. I'm Steve Hayes, an editor at the dispatch, joined by Sarah Isker, a senior editor at the dispatch. We're happy to have you here. I am not actually in a hostage video, although that's what my lighting looks like. Like, I am here in a hotel on the border of South Carolina and North Carolina. We have somebody who's been talking to South Carolina voters.

We're going to bring in people who are working and covering the race in Iowa. We're later going to go to somebody on the dispatch staff in New Hampshire. And we're going to bring in several of the people who know a lot about this stuff too. But we're going to start with Sarah, who comes to us with experience in politics, active politics, on presidential campaigns. and spent time in Iowa, has worked with the caucuses, and writes the collision newsletter for us about the intersection of legal and politics, what's going on in the law, law enforcement, and politics, which is especially relevant this time around.

Sarah, how are you? I'm good, and I've been talking to Iowa voters, too. I had dinner with a couple Cedar Rapids voters a couple nights ago. Well, that's as good a place to start as any. What do they tell you? Are they excited? Are they active Iowa voters? Do they care about this?

Most Iowa voters do. But we'll have a small fraction of the state that shows up to the caucuses tonight. Yeah, I mean, in some ways, this is a good example because this voter has met with every single major Republican Party candidate. you know she shakes their hand ask them questions this is how iowa works right it is real retail you're not just in the audience you're like touching and feeling the candidates um right now what's interesting is you know due to some family emergencies she will not actually make the caucus tonight though she was expecting to life intervenes right right like this happens and so you spend all this time meeting all these voters and some percentage of them you know aren't going to actually

make it to the caucus. She doesn't know who she would have voted for, but it's interesting to me because, you know, this is the reflection of the race as a whole. She had spent a lot of the time four months ago, six months ago at DeSantis events, and now she's been spending time at Haley events. And she's, I think, met Nikki Haley twice just in the last couple weeks. And that final run where Nikki Haley, you know, thought she was only going to play in New Hampshire, leave Iowa to DeSantis. Then she started making a real push in Iowa just here in the last few weeks. This voter clearly felt that, though she couldn't have necessarily told you the strategy. And is that, was her reasoning because more of viability,

Bihali's been doing better or ideology that she line up with Haley? You know, she's been in the state. She's been doing lots of these events as voters in Cedar Rapids, which, you know, I obviously did a lot of campaign. in Iowa. Cedar Rapids is not easy to get to compared to doing Des Moines and the sort of Des Moines suburbs. That's where the population, the largest caucuses really are. And so if you're just going to touch Iowa and then go back to New Hampshire, you're going to be in Des Moines. It actually shows Nikki Haley really investing in Iowa that she was making that many trips up to Cedar Rapids. So certainly Nikki Haley making that late push to get that second place slot.

You know, they always say there's three tickets out of Iowa. I don't know that that's true this year. There might only be two. Yeah, I think that's right. Well, let's, let's bring in somebody who might be able to shed some light on that. We have one of the true Iowa political gurus in David Cottrell, longtime Republican strategist in Iowa. We talk to him as often as we can here at the dispatch because we rely on his experience, his knowledge, and his wisdom. And there are he is overdressed as usual. He's the true professional. I'm wearing a flannel. Sarah looks nice, but she's got ABC News. And David looks nice because he always looks nice. David, welcome. How are you? Hey, thanks for having me on, guys. I'm excited to be coming on here from Iowa where it is really,

really cold. Hey, Steve, don't forget, in 2016, Kachal and I were up against each other in Iowa. So it, you know, shows how far we can come. Kachel and I then did Harvard Institute of Politics together. We sort of lived in a dorm together. And, you know, bygones be bygones. Here we are. Good times, Sarah. Good times.

Lots of fun. What happens at Harvard, though, stays at Harvard. So Kachel, you sent me a correction. Can I out you for, like, texting me your notes on what I said? Yeah. No, I do it frequently. I do it all the time. I'm here, I'm your fact checker, Sarah.

I said that I didn't think that the cold would actually have a real impact on turnout because, A, it's Iowa, B, they've been sort of working this hard and this long, the voters to get to this point, and that, you know, maybe it won't be the highest turnout ever. But people were saying, like, no one's going to come caucus. And you texted me and said, Sarah, oh, no, Cottrell can't hear me. Hold on, and we'll let you get back. but Cotchell basically texted me and said no this is actually really going to affect turnout

and to be clear there's nobody I trust more about Iowa caucus turnout than Dave Cotchell so when he gets back he's going to restart and get back to us but Steve I think those are the main things we're looking for tonight right we're looking for those turnout numbers one and then we're looking for the margin does Trump get over 50% and what's that margin between Haley and DeSantis So let me ask you a question about that specifically. The DeSantis campaign, I mean, sort of the reporting all along out of Iowa is that the DeSantis

campaign was building a very strong turnover operation, mindful of the fact that he might, you know, that that was where he was playing. And he was putting a lot of emphasis on Iowa going in. Is that the kind of thing that could give him an advantage over somebody like Nikki Haley, who seems to have been surging? If you look at the latest polling out of Iowa, there was the gold standard Iowa poll, the Des Moines Register NBC News poll just out this past weekend, had Trump at 48, Nikki Haley at 20, Ron DeSantis at 16. If it's as cold as it is there, if the DeSantis turnout operation is as good as it's supposed to have been, would that be something that takes him above those numbers and makes him competitive, flips him in a second? Absolutely. Yes. So ground games matter in primaries, but they matter even more in caucuses because you're talking about fewer people. And the ground game, when we say ground game, like I know people who are knocking on doors today for the DeSantis campaign, really going door to door, like ready to physically drag people from their homes. That's what a ground game in a caucus looks like. So absolutely it can make a big difference. But the question is whether it's already baked into the polling, right? Because when they ask you, are you planning to caucus? How much are you planning to caucus? How much are you planning to caucus?

caucus. What could stop you from caucusing? So they're certainly trying to take that ground game into account in the poll. We'll see. Yeah, I mean, this isn't the first time that we've had difficulties. David, can you hear us? I can. I, you know, I get a call and it knocks me off the audio. So now we are all do not disturbed and ready to go. Sorry about that. You're fine. Our dispatch members are used to this and very forgiving of occasional technical glitches. Let's go back to Sarah's question to you about the cold and about turn-up. Does it matter and why if it does? Yeah, normally it doesn't matter.

Normally, I totally agree with Sarah. I've been saying that as a whenever I play a pundit role for years. We're sturdy people, hail and hearty. We've got to get our kids to school. We've got to get to work. It doesn't matter if it's zero degrees out. And we can handle all that. 15 below with 45 below wind chill is a little bit.

different. Now it's dangerous, right? Now the battery dies. The engine block freezes and the car doesn't turn over. If you're in a rural or ex-urban county, you might have to drive 20 miles, and the roads are better today, but they're not great. And this is like, I got in the car this morning at 6 o'clock in the morning to head over to Mars Cafe and do a hit on TV. It was about 13 below when I got in the car because the car wasn't in a heated garage. And I have to tell you, it's painful. It hurts. It's like stepping into a big steel ice box. And that's different than what we see in a normal cold caucus, even one that has snow. This one is different. I do think it's going to depress turnout. We had 187,000 boats in 2016. I was putting the turnout over under at 150,000

this caucus, mostly because this campaign hadn't been all that interesting. You know, we've had Donald Trump leading from pillar to post. You know, there's a little bit of a race here for a second, which we're going to, I'm sure, talk about more. But I didn't think turnout was going to match 2016 in the first place, which is a much more interesting campaign, a lot bigger candidates, bigger names were in it. I think actually one of the, I wish there were a cross tab in the Iowa poll that would tell us How many voters have a heated garage?

Because a voter who has a heated garage, you're laughing, Sarah, but this is real. If your car is warm, maybe you're a little more affluent. Maybe you got a little nicer car, a big SUV, and it's sitting out there in a 60-degree garage, you're going to be much more willing to get in that car than if it's sitting out on the street and it's 15 below and you have trouble turning it over. I think we're going to see a turnout probably in the 120, 130 range, which is down. So this is what that means. More people going out to vote means good for Donald Trump

because he's got obviously the big poll numbers. He's got a bunch more potential supporters in the state. Low turnout, maybe a little uncertainty starts to seep in. You know, DeSantis has this great organization. That's going to matter. Haley has a lot of momentum. You can kind of feel her coming on. Her events have gotten bigger.

So maybe Trump doesn't hit that 51% that represents his real clear politics average. So I think turnout is going to matter tonight. It is definitely going to be smaller than it otherwise would have been because this cold is, it's otherworldly. We're talking, I think we're two degrees warmer than the North or the South Pole right now. So that's true. Let me ask both. Let me ask you both sort of the big picture question. Why does I matter? I mean, I just read to Sarah David when you were out. I read to Sarah the latest Des Moines register poll. Trump's at 48, Haley's at 20, DeSantis is at 16. I mean, why should anybody care what happens in Iowa tonight? Trump's almost certain to win with a massive margin.

There will be a lot of people like us talking about DeSantis and Haley. And, you know, if one person is up, if Haley wins 1817, there'll be a whole spade of stories for three days about how this was her win and, you know, strong second place. DeSantis will he drop up? If DeSantis wins by one point, have the reverse of that. I mean, does any of this really matter in a state that has such a strong front earner? David, I'll go to you first. Well, if Trump gets under 50, that means over half of Iowa caucus doors, which really should be his base, said, no, thank you. We're going to do something else. And even though all of DeSantis's voters wouldn't go to Nikki and all of Nicky's voters wouldn't go to DeSantis.

He's still got to have these contests. Iowa matters, number one, because it's first. And number two, because it's probably, we need to get to a two-person race much, much sooner than we did in 2016. If Iowa does this job tonight, let's say Haley wins second place by four or five points, that's really the end of Ron DeSantis' campaign.

She goes on to New Hampshire, and even though DeSantis is still on the ballot, that we know how New Hampshire, you know, reacts to things like that. She has a real chance to beat Trump there. Now, all of a sudden, you've changed the whole narrative of this campaign. That doesn't mean that Nikki Haley is going to go on and sweep the rest of the country. Trump is still leading in her home state of South Carolina. But, you know, this is a dynamic process.

The fact that he has 60 plus percent in the national polling is completely irrelevant until we see how these first couple of votes come in. These carve-out states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Nevada doesn't matter as much this year because it's a weird process. But they do really set the agenda for the rest of the campaign. So look, Donald Trump is overwhelmingly favored to become the nominee in any case. But if that narrative gets chopped down or broken down a little bit and some of that invulnerability breaks down,

it's got to happen here or it's got to happen in New Hampshire. And if it does, who knows how he'll react, who knows what the rest of the campaign looks like 32 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina is the longest we've ever had. So a lot could happen. The only thing I'd add to that is... Do you buy that dynamic argument?

Yes, and I'll emphasize one part, which is it's not just that the national polls don't matter because we don't have a national primary. I mean, we kind of do on Super Tuesday. It's a ways off, but we are going to have. a quasi-national primary. It's that most Republican primary voters have not actually tuned into this race. Iowa and New Hampshire have, and it's much tighter than those national polls. These are the voters who've actually taken the time, again, to meet these candidates half a dozen times sometimes

and to like touch them and poke them. And the fact that it's a tighter race, or we expected to be a tighter race than the national polls, could actually predict those other states more than the national polling would with voters who are mostly tuned out or just haven't paid attention. yet until it's going to come to their state. That's why that 50% number matters to so many of us watching this, like Hotchel was saying. Does Donald Trump keep below 50% if Nikki Haley can come in second

with that momentum going into New Hampshire? I mean, that is her path. Now the problem is, to the point, okay, she comes in second Iowa. She comes in first in New Hampshire, let's say. Nevada's a mess. Then we go to South Carolina where Trump is way ahead.

It would be hard for her to overtake him at this point in South Carolina. And we had to Super Tuesday, which is that quasi-national primary, there would have to be a real shift in the vibes, so to speak, based on this one-two Iowa, New Hampshire punch. It's not impossible to see it if you squint, but it's pretty hard. David, let me just follow up. I know you've got to run. I know you've got a busy caucus night ahead of you, but let me sneak in one last question for you. You've seen up close the difficulty that the non-Trump candidates have had making arguments against Trump. whether it's the legal issues that Trump faces and these other candidates sort of one way or another making his arguments for him, whether it's the direct attacks that they've tried on Trumps, most of which have fallen flat, leaving Iowa.

Once we move out of Iowa, what would be your advice on what these other candidates ought to be saying to break through, given those difficulties that we've seen to this point? Yeah, it's a real challenge. I did a lot of testing last year in focus groups on what, messages work against Trump and which ones don't. And it is a difficult equation to get there. I think what has to happen is whoever gets him in a one-on-one has to step up the criticism. There are ways to do it that work better than other ways. You can't attack. If you ran an ad against Trump like the Haley ads against DeSantis and vice versa, they don't work. Because people have been conditioned, really trained by the conservative. media ecosystem to come to his defense. If you attack him the way that MSNBC would attack him,

people have a ready explanation. Well, you didn't build the wall. That's Mitch McConnell's fault. Well, you spent a bunch of money. Well, that's Congress's fault. Everybody can make an excuse for Donald Trump. He's kind of made an industry out of that. But they're going to have to sharpen up their attack. The Nikki Haley chaos follows him line is an effective first step. She's got to go further than that. She's got to maybe lean in a little bit more on some of these trials. Not that she has to, well, A, she should stop defending Trump on these trials. That's one thing. And B, she can talk about them in the context of he's going to be distracted. He is going to come into the spotlight even more than he has been. It's almost like he's been running in this little

conservative bubble for a while. Of course, he's had attacks from a lot of the mainstream media like he always does. But as this process goes forward, the lights will get brighter and brighter on him. That's what Biden's counting on. And she needs to be able to make, or DeSantis, needs to be able to make that argument that, you know, I'm not going to be distracted by any of this. And then there are some other ways to go at Trump. You know, it's, it is difficult. It's nuanced. It's permission structure stuff. It's, yeah, I voted for him twice. And Nikki Hayley, that's Nikki Haley saying he was the right president at the right time. But there are a lot of voters who think, I voted for him twice.

I'm kind of tired of the drama. I'm exhausted by it all. I think somebody else has a better chance against Biden. Electability doesn't work as well when Trump's beating Biden in the polls. But when you're beating Biden by the amount, the amount that Mickey Haley is, she needs to bring that issue back into this campaign and say, you know what? Donald Trump might beat Joe Biden by a point or two points like the polls show. If I'm your nominee, we get the White House, the Senate,

The House and two terms. And two terms. And so she's got to go into those arguments, I think, a little more firmly. And when you're one-on-one, people are going to pay attention in a different way. We won't have that crossfire happening kind of below the surface between two candidates that are 25 points behind. Now it's two candidates. Let's say they come out of New Hampshire. Maybe Nikki wins. Maybe Trump wins. But they're talking now to each other for the first time. I think she's, talented enough that if she gets that shot, she'll make a real run of it. You know, obviously, odds overwhelmingly favor Donald Trump in this environment. But if there's going to be a nominated contest that's really a contest, we need this to get to two people really quickly and the shape of this race will change coming out of New Hampshire. Might not be enough, but it's important. If that happens, you know, and we've got to keep watching. I've got a follow up. Does Donald Trump show up to debate, Nikki Haley, if it gets down to two? Well, this is a thing that I've been kind of harping on for a long time.

He should, if they get a lot closer, even in the national polling because of an Iowa New Hampshire performance that exceeds expectations for her, she needs to go really hard at that. The voters deserve it. It's disrespectful of voters who are trying to make a choice. And when he's not playing on the field and she is, there's a. basic unfairness to that. Look, the conservative media ecosystem has not pushed for that. I think they're afraid to lose Trump voters if they start holding into account there. I think kind of

everybody is on eggshells about that. I think they need to change the tune because the party deserves it. They should have an actual argument between two candidates with a shot at becoming the nominee. So maybe that will change the tune a little bit if she beats him somewhere and you start to kind of, you know, start to break apart that inevitability narrative that he has now. I don't know if it's going to happen. It should happen. She should push for that and a lot of other people should push for that. And Fox and the other conservative outlets should want it as well. It'd be a blockbuster for their ratings to do it. And, you know, I mean, why not have the argument?

Why don't have the fight right out in the open? Have it on Fox and have it on Newsmax. Have it on wherever you want to put it. Have it on the dispatch. Let's do that, right? But I think, I think... We will be happy to host a debate between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump on dispatch live.

But I, you know... David Conchell, thank you so much for joining us. us absolutely hey it's a pleasure to see you guys i know you've got a i know you've got a busy night really a lot to to get to uh for the rest of the night we appreciate you taking the time to join us here and look forward to connecting with you in the next couple days for you to tell us what happened and why thanks david thanks thanks for having me on guys and we are going to be joined sarah are going to be joined now by andrew egger who is on the ground in Iowa.

Kevin Williamson, a national correspondent for the dispatch. And Chris Steyerwalt, who writes for the dispatch on politics. He is a News Nation muckety-muck. I don't know what your title is at News Nation, but he's a big deal. And we're happy to have you guys. I start with Andrew, who looks like he's at a caucus right now. Now? What's going on? Andrew, what are you seeing? Yeah, that's right. So I'm out here at Lifehouse Community Church.

I hope you guys can hear me, okay? I'm on my phone. Out here at Lifehouse Community Church in Urbandale, Iowa, which is a suburb just west of Des Moines. It's, you know, people are trickling in. The caucus is going to start here in about 35 minutes. I've spoken very briefly to the Trump caucus captain who have these really nifty hats this year that say Trump caucus captain. A lot of them have them signed about the president, which is a nice little. former president, nice little touch, kind of goes to show they're taking things a little bit more seriously. I mean, it's sort of a silly example, but shows how they're taking the organizational stuff a little bit more seriously this time around than they did back in 2016. People are still just kind of trickling in here.

You know, we don't actually pick things off for about half an hour, but there's all kinds of procedural stuff that can happen. People can still switch their voter registration to be Republican on the day of the caucus. They preserved that rule in the Republican Party rules. They weren't 100% sure they were going to. But so people are coming in. People are getting ready to caucus, and we'll get started here in a little bit. Not long ago, I saw someone go through a sudden loss, and it was a stark reminder of how quickly life can change

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likely effect on turnout tonight. What have you been seeing? What have you been hearing from voters? And what do you expect to see tonight? Yeah. So when we talked a couple days ago on the on the podcast, I kind of waved off the notion that the snow was going to be much of an impact. And I think that's true around here, certainly true in the urban areas where all the plowing is done, even even way out in the rural, rural spots, I think if the snow had come one day later, you might have seen a much more significant depression of turnout on account of that. I've talked to people who only just had their streets plowed, you know, this morning and who maybe haven't even, hadn't even finished digging out their own driveways

when they were making a decision of whether or not to come caucus tonight. And so that's going to have some of an impact. Obviously, the cold itself will have a certain amount of impact. It is frigid out there. My own rental car, I'm not 100% sure how many more times the battery is going to start for me, so we're going to figure that kind of stuff out. But we've, you know,

the candidates have been slogging through at best they can. I was at Nikki Haley's last event of yesterday, out in Adle, Iowa, west of Des Moines, which she had at the top of a very snowy hill at the end of a pretty icy driveway. I think she's probably a little bit

lucky that there were not worse headlines coming out of that in terms of people being able to get to and from the to and from the site. But overall, I mean, I think I've talked to a few people about this. A couple months ago, people were expecting a record turnout caucus and kind of in anything-goes sort of environment. I don't think that's really the case any longer, not just because of the weather, but because Trump's a million miles ahead. And, you know, Ronda Sanis has sagged. Nikki Haley's got a lot of momentum people I spoke to at her event last night felt good and kind of energized about where she's shown up in the polls. But the fact that the kind of top line seems to be baked for a lot of people is going to be a question in a lot of these

voters' minds as they decide whether to go out in the poll tonight. Chris, let me bring you in on that question. We talked a little bit with David Cottrell about the expectations game and how this will be talked about coming out of Iowa. There's a real question. We had a question up on the screen earlier from dispatch member, John. Why should we even care about Iowa? I mean, Trump's likely to win by, you know, 20, 30 points. And there will be a lot made of who comes in second, who comes in third.

You've been doing this for a long time. I don't mean to date you, but you and I have to do this a box for more than a decade. You've seen this up close. You've watched this carefully. Does it really matter who comes in second and who comes in third? Walk us through your thinking on how we should think about these results. Does anything really matter? Does anything really matter?

I mean, look, did it matter in 2016 that Marco Rubio came in third? Yeah, it probably did. It probably did matter that Marco Rubio came in third because he went from a momentum candidate to a stalling candidate and went to New Hampshire and failed. Now, he was probably going to fail because it turns out he wasn't particularly good at running for president. It also turns out, by the way, with that Trump endorsement over Ronnie D, he's got some hard feelings. He's got some bad feelings in his heart. But it mattered that he finished third in Iowa, for sure. The order of battle matters coming out of Iowa.

Now, to the questioner's point, well, I mean, of course, it doesn't really, really matter because there's going to be 130,000 people or whatever who turn out to go participate in this. This is a very, maybe I'll put it this way. I like the Iowa caucuses because they're not very democratic. they're not very democratic at all. It's a little portion of the electorate. You have to want it. It's freezing cold outside. You have to go smell the bad breath of other people. You have to go stand around in a mega church and wait for people to give speeches. You have to tolerate humanity. You have to really want this and spend three hours. On the third day of a holiday weekend, this is the third day of a holiday weekend. You have to be willing to do all of that. So you've really cut down to the core number of people. And they have skin in the game. They're really selecting delegates to go on to the next round

who will go on from here to go on to there. It's not very many people. So yes, in one sense, it doesn't matter. In another sense, this has to, we got to start somewhere, and this is where we start. Sarah, let me come to you with one last question. I know you've got to run too. And then, Kevin, I want to bring you in.

what's about to happen here in the caucuses? You've seen these up close. What's it like to be in a caucus room? What's it like to hear the arguments? The Democrats run their caucuses differently than the Republicans do. How does a Republican caucus unfold? Yeah, this is going to feel really different than the caucus you're used to seeing on TV because normally we highlight the Democratic one because it's weirder and more

weirder than the Republican one. But basically, doors will close at, depending on, you know, if you're in Iowa, they'll close at 7 p.m. And then everyone's going to go vote. So in that sense, it's a little anticlimactic. But, you know, it's what's fun about these is some of these caucus sites are huge with a thousand people. And some of them are going to have 30 people at them or eight people at them. And that's what makes this, I think, really fun because this isn't just interested voters. These are like the hyper excited voters who have really been out there testing the candidates this whole time. So yes, turnout is low when you think about the whole state or God, when you think about the country,

certainly. But you have to remember that these people have been tuning in or than anyone else in the country. It's why I love Iowa and why I hope we always keep these early states because they are different than having a national primary. And I think we're starting to see why it's actually better. A national primary, you know, is going to favor name ID, television ads. Not true in Iowa, New Hampshire. You know, it's sort of like ranked choice voting.

It's not always going to make a difference in who wins, but it's going to make a difference in how you win. This is a retail politics state, and I think we should still be highly valuing that. So that's what you're about to see. Retail politics equals what you're about to watch. And beyond that, Iowa has such a high percentage of great stakeholders, really disproportionate for the number of people.

Say word, brother. Say word. Worth making the travel there. Sarah, thank you very much for joining us. I know you've got to run to ABC. Thanks for joining us. We will chew this all over with you on the Dispatch podcast later this week.

Running to ABC and don't forget, I'll be in New Hampshire with you next week. So for those who are in that area will be in Concord on Wednesday night. Yeah, it's this week, Sarah. I know it's the time is. Well, you're right. It's two days from now.

Steve, can I make one point? Can I just say one thing? Please. Yes, please. He got a petite filet. He went to 801. He went to the best steakhouse in town and he ordered a petite filet. And I was like, you know, yeah, disappointed.

I was, I was disappointed. You got a petite filet. I'm just going to say he did. What was it? It was probably a difference of $2. Yeah, it was probably a difference of $2. It was. even on an expense account

you need to get the bigger stake, Andy. Yeah, exactly. Sorry about that. But I want to go to Williamson with a question first. Kevin, as we look at the Nikki Haley's momentum, you heard David Cottrell first, Sarah,

talk about Nikki Haley's momentum. It's clear, I mean, we could see it in the polls. She's gotten more attention. She's sharpened her. criticism of Donald Trump in these closing days, so has Ron DeSantis. How much should we care about momentum? And does momentum matter if you finish in the teens against a guy who has 50, if that's the outcome? As good as that question is, I would like to begin by continuing the criticism of Andrew Edgar. Yes. Yes. Andrew is a young man. This is why people tune in. As a young man,

Andrew never saw Dan Rather cover a hurricane. And so that he doesn't know that when you're out covering a story where everyone's talking about the weather, we need you, you know, in a parka and toboggan and goggles out yours, riding a snowplow. Instead of walking around looking like you're strolling across the Princeton campus. If he had a gentleman's cut a steak, he would have the strength and the fortitude to face these winds. And he wouldn't be sheltering inside. That's right, Kevin. Let me just say if it were 10 or 15 degrees colder.

On the other hand, and we are going to get back to Kevin, but on the other hand, there must be some kind of major delay because I'm trying to make my case here. But I'll say if it were 10 or 15 degrees warmer than it is, people act like everything under 10 degrees is about the same. Not true. You know, I have the park, I have the gloves, I have the hat, I have the scarf. I'm still about to dye. just walking from my car to get in here.

So I left it all in a heap and was very glad to tune in looking and feeling like a normal human being. This is not an attack on your, for reality. It's on your sense of drama, which we need some more of. And speaking of sense of drama, I'll get back to Steve's question about Nikki Haley and the relative lack of drama in that situation. When you talk about momentum, there's no such thing as momentum running for second place. There just is. No one's really besides nerds like us going to say, yeah, she didn't win.

win, but she didn't lose by as much as she was expected to. If I were a different sort of person, I would make some sort of sports analogy to this, because everyone's very sensitive about that sort of thing this time of year. But all the headlines are going to say, the Trump won, and Nikki Haley didn't, and Ron DeSantis didn't. And probably Ron DeSantis will be pressured to end his campaign after the Iowa progress is if he doesn't perform better than he's expected to here. Yeah, you get some momentum when you're in a two-person race. You get some momentum when you're a general election, of course, when there's a real kind of national sense that we're making a big, important

decision. Who comes in second in Iowa is not a big important moment in anyone's life, except for the people who are running in the Iowa caucuses and their moms. So I disagree with Kevin on that. Yeah. You're going to jump in.

You were wrong. Greetings, everybody. I raced across incredibly treacherous D.C. roads. It is really gross out there. It's not sub-Arctic. like where Edgar is, but it is really icy and people in D.C. can't drive. I think it is weird that Kevin Williamson, who is probably like the foremost writer on the irrationality of voters, of Americans, of American life, and how we all deserve what we're getting

because we made a wish on a monkey paw to make this argument precisely because I'm I'm old enough to remember Bill Clinton coming in second in the New Hampshire primary and being called the comeback kid and parlaying that into a victory. You may be right about how that kind of thing won't work here, but this categorical thing about like second place never matters and either you win or you don't win. I just don't think that's true because I agree it's dumb or irrational, but the whole expectations game

has been a thing for a very, very, very long time. Of course, there are times when second place matters. For instance, if you win second when people weren't expecting you to. Right. But when you win second. That's why Haley wants to beat DeSantis, because DeSantis said he'd win. And then he said he'd certainly come in second. And if she beats DeSantis, that gives her some big mo, as Papa Bush might say,

heading into New Hampshire. I agree. It's unlikely to change anything in the end. But I didn't first in that primary where Clinton came in the second. I can't remember. Was it Sangus? Songus. Not a guy who'd recently be a president of the United States, right?

Correct. Yeah. Correct. But that amplifies the whole, behold, a God who bleeds thing. Yeah. If Trump comes significantly below 50, you can imagine a scenario where people respond to that in a certain way. I'm not saying they're going to. I'm just saying that irrationality is baked into this, and it's also what pays our bills.

So, you know, between those two things, I should just keep that in mind. Well, if I... Somebody's got to buy egg at her time of the state. If I was giving credence to the rationality of the meeting American voter, I retract and regret the remarks. Correct. Correct. And we wouldn't do anything just to make a buck, Jonah. That's like part of the founding ethos of the dispatch, right?

Andrew, you need to get to a caucus. Go. Next time, get the bigger steak. Take it... I mean, if you look at the people... around you, now he's gone. Look at me, Jonah, Kevin, and Chris and wonder whether it's good advice to get the bigger steak. I'm not sure. I'm not sure they can't. That's right. Take that advice. Let me take a couple of questions. Let me take a couple questions from members. We are in a few

minutes going to bring in Michael Warren, who's already in New Hampshire, has been reporting from there. AJ asks us, why should Iowa always be first? And I'll let you read the rest of it. Sarah addressed this to a certain extent. She said, Iowa and New Hampshire, given their traditional historical roles, ensure that we continue the tradition of retail politics and that retail politics matter. You can test politicians in the room. You can hear their stump speeches. You can shake their hands. I am a big proponent of these early states, remaining early states. I think it would be really, really bad if we went to a national televised primary. Yeah, go ahead, Kevin. Well, the guy who's going to win the Republican race in Iowa's hardly set foot in the state.

Well, that's true. That's a good point. I mean, maybe, Chris, does that mean that doesn't matter anymore, we're already there, and people who, like me, who want us to continue this tradition are just anachronistic? So, you know, it would be hard to devise by design a worse way to choose the leader of the free world than having a series of presidential primaries across the country in which tiny numbers of the most radical weird voters get to speak. with this loud of a voice. This is, this is on its face, lunacy, and we have the results to show for it in the increasingly decrepit quality of candidates that both parties have put forward

over the past 25 years. Like, we can see what the consequences of our 45-year experiment with primary elections are. That having been said, why not Iowa, right? What else you got? I like the Iowans. They take it seriously. They care about it. They're engaged in it. It matters to them for the, for the between 100 and 200,000 human beings who will go do it tonight. They care about it. They do treat it seriously. One of the reasons that we see such volatility in Iowa results and how the polls move and all of that stuff, why Marco Rubio overperformed by nine points, Ted Cruz overperformed by seven points, Donald Trump underperform so dramatically, all of the movement that we saw in 2016, because these people are carefully considering their votes, they're changing their minds up until the end,

they're really thinking about those numbers, about what they want to do here. And I think that does, I think that does have merit. And I can't think of, I mean, I would love it if West Virginia went first. We would have a much different and more interesting politics in America if West Virginia went first, but I don't know that we would take it as seriously and earnestly as the Ireland. So I'm going to dissent on this. When Chris talks about the leader of the free world, I'm just thinking, let's leave Taylor Swift out of this. I'm going to dissent on this. And I think Kevin makes a very good point. The fact that Trump is going to, by all accounts, win this thing. The only question is by how much shows you how deformative our politics has gotten that the

guy who doesn't do this retail politicking is the runaway favorite. Moreover, Look, I like Iowa. I feel really sheepish about criticizing the Iowa caucuses after we had Cottrell on here because he's a good dude and it's his bread and butter. But just a sort of like public choice theory kind of thing, by having it in the same state over and over and over again, you get distortions where you get people who go,

whose entire business model is being experts about one state. You have local leaders who get outsized national influence because of the role that one state plays, you get, you would not have the ethanol subsidy in this country if the Iowa caucuses weren't there every four years. And so I'm a big believer, first of all, everyone knows I don't like primaries, but like if you're going to have them rotating it around so that at least you get a different set of issues and you don't create this permanent Brahmin class of political fixers on the ground, I think has a lot to recommend. I agree.

I agree. An example of Starwaltz and yours often repeated observation that just the normal rules don't apply to Donald Trump. And that may be a different kind of candidate couldn't do what he's doing in Iowa and just dominate the caucuses without showing up. And he is. Yeah, I think that's, let me ask, let me push you on this. Can I, Chris, let me push back on you a little bit. let's say that I agree with everything you say this is the worst it's weird it's lunacy it produces bad results it's terrible isn't it the case that that even if you're right a worse way to do

it would be to have like a nationally televised national primary where it's driven by who has the best TV ads or who can reach the most people through their Facebook distort worded in Facebook posts? I mean, what's the alternative here, given the way that we've seen that? Iowa comes closer to what I want, because it doesn't actually, no one, no delegates will be awarded tonight, right? This is, in effect, a straw poll. And out of the results of this drop hole at 1,670, whatever, precincts around the state,

delegates to district conventions will be chosen. And then those district conventions will send delegates to the state convention. And then the state convention will send delegates to the national convention. In the end, the Iowa delegation always goes to whoever is going to win the Republican nomination because the process works so slowly in such a way that by the time it's time to go away to, in this case, it'll be a Milwaukee. By the time it's time to go to Milwaukee, they'll already know who's won, and then they'll all just give their votes to the winner. And that's all there is to it. So Iowa actually represents something closer to what would be better, which is one in which, and we remember the name of the old book, the party decides, right?

People with skin in the game, people who are actually participating in the parties who are deeply invested. The way that Donald Trump won was that a lot of people, the way he won the Republican, nomination the first time was a lot of people who didn't feel particular affinity to the Republican Party were not invested in the Republican Party, didn't really care about the Republican Party, and if they cared about it, they hated it, came into the nominating process through primary elections, and they went for the host of the celebrity apprentice, and they flipped over Jeb Bush's apple cart, and they had a good time doing it. But that's it, right? So I think, you know, it's odd to find myself in the position of robust defender of Iowa, but I will say

this compared to an actual primary. I'll take this. Do you think maybe your district says caucus enthusiast. Here I am. The less our politics looks like Iowa, the more it looks like social media-driven populism. Do you think that's really where the choice is? Yep, I agree. That's my concern. You say my concern much better than I did. That's what he does. That's Kevin's job in life is to write things that I go, damn, I wish I had said that. This episode is brought to you by Squarespace. Squarespace is the platform that helps you create a polished professional home online. Whether you're building a site for your business, you're writing, or a new project, Squarespace brings everything together in one place. With Squarespace's cutting-edge design tools,

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use offer code dispatch to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. We are going to bring in Michael Warren. I think, Chris, if I've got my information, correct, you have to check out. Yeah, Jonah, do you have to go, if you have to go, go, if you don't have to go stay. Kevin, I think you can stick around. Yeah, we may not have you for a while here, so we want every minute. Kevin, that we can get. Mike, welcome. How are you? How's New Hampshire? Warmer than Iowa, I am told. Slightly warmer. Yeah, I feel like I got the memo wrong. There's something happening in Iowa tonight. I had no idea because the first in the nation primary.

You just went to the wrong place. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you should probably fire you for that, for that alone, if that's actually the case. Yeah, I'm just a little confused. No, I'm coming here from Stark Brewing Company in Manchester. I have a Manch Vegas beer. I just saw Chris Sununu, who was here speaking to a group of mostly young people, college students, put on by a sort of a conservation environment.

environmental-minded group of young conservatives. So it was a very interesting conversation. He was speaking. He had a big Nikki Haley. I think they're putting up the picture. Pick Nikki signed behind him. So he was touting Nikki Haley. This is a series of talks from presidential candidates or their surrogates.

Of course, Kristen Noon is the governor of New Hampshire. Pretty important surrogate here. So just heard what they had to say. Talk to a few of the young voters. and everybody's geared up here for the big vote next Tuesday. Hey, guys, Drucker's win the wings. I'm going to make a long for him. Yeah, Jody, you can go.

David Drucker, you can join us. And, Mike, I've got to follow up for you. We spent a good part of this conversation tonight talking about Nikki Haley. There's a sense that she has momentum that she could come in. second in Iowa, sort of catapulting her to serious contention in New Hampshire, where she's polling, depending on the poll, better than she's polling in Iowa. Nobody's beating Donald Trump in New Hampshire. What's your sense from having spoken to Iowa or to New Hampshire voters? To the extent that you can tell from a couple dozen individual conversations, does that feel real?

Is there a real enthusiasm for her? And how important is it that Democrats and independents can to New Hampshire? I think the answer to the first question is answered by the premise of the second question, which is it's going to be important for Nikki Haley if she can win. And I think she can, if not win, come with basically within the margin, which maybe doesn't mean much, but it would be a big deal even if she sort of came within a couple points of Donald Trump in New Hampshire because of. of uncommitted Democratic-leaning or even just centrist-leaning voters.

I have a few numbers on this point. I was talking with a strategist here in New Hampshire today who sort of gamed out what they expect. So there's an expectation of about 330,000 people voting in the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. That's pretty big. That's a lot of people. That's a projection based on some data. And by comparison, in September 2022, when there was a Senate primary, a governor's primary, because every two years they elected governor here in New Hampshire, the Republican primary

had 140,000 votes. So the way this person put it to me was those 140,000 who voted in September 2022, they know who they're voting for. They're voting for Donald Trump or Nikki Haley or whomever. It's the other 190,000 who are less engaged and who are deciding this week. And so I do think momentum is important for Nikki Haley. If she comes out of Iowa with a strong position, she looks like a winner or an almost winner. I mean, it's second place, so it's a little ridiculous.

But I would say, I talked to some young voters here tonight. I talked to two who go to Dartmouth, who were here in Manchester to see the governor, who just, they're from out of state, but they registered to vote in New Hampshire this year. they're 19 years old, and they're voting for Nikki Haley. They're not even sure if they're going to vote for her in the general election if she were the nominee, but they are very interested in sending a message that she, that Donald, it's almost a vote against Donald Trump. And they're using the vote for Nikki Haley as a way to send a message about Donald Trump should not be president.

Again, he should not even get the Republican nomination. That is one stream of where pro-Nicky voters are. trucker let me bring you in on that question you know we keep coming back to this this issue because I think it's the big it's the biggest question about the Republican primary Donald Trump is leading depending on the poll depending on the state he's even 20 points or 30 points or 40 points it feels silly in some ways that we're even having these conversations you know I'm asking about I'm asking Kevin about Nikki Haley's momentum because she might come in second in Iowa at 18 points. And we're talking to Mike who says, look, if she has a very close

second place in New Hampshire, that could be a big, like, are we just crazy? Like, is this thing just over? You've been in Iowa for a few days. You're in Des Moines right now. You're at the same place, actually, that David Cottrell joined us from earlier. What are you hearing? And are we just, is this just all stupid? Is this just done? Is this done? Donald Trump, the nominee? well i mean look if i were a betting man and i was forced to bet i would bet on trump because his lead is so big and he embodies the base of the republican party and the cultural populism is now the sentiment that sort of runs the party whereas for years as you and i were growing up it was flipped the populists were always a key component of the coalition but it was the

establishmentarians and the suburban voters that held sway in these primaries, things are different, at least with Trump running for office. So look, I and John McCormick and Andrew Hager, we were all over Iowa as much as the snow and the snowdrifts would allow us to be over the past several days. And these events for Haley and DeSantis were still packed and by normal candidate standards. They were very healthy events. You had a lot of voters that were realistic about how their candidates might finish in Iowa, but felt like as long as they could keep them afloat, they still had a fighting chance

to make the media and the pollsters look like idiots. As I've talked to sources, especially with the cold weather, they've put a high premium on the DeSantis ground game. And the interesting thing there, Steve, is in talking to DeSantis campaign staff and sources, is you get this sense that they're concerned about how the governor's going to finish. When I would talk to people connected to never back down, the Super PAC, which is a separate entity that is running the ground game on its own, they seem and sound a lot more confident in the governor's ability to have a really strong finish, particularly with the cold weather.

And I will say for all of DeSantis' money woes and for all of the horrible news that he has had to endure, many of it because of his own making over the last several months, just watching his ground game here and I have never backed down. It's doing its job. Now, can they get people to the polls to vote for him? We will find out. But it's not like it's a broken down old jalopy that actually isn't working. It's actually working.

And then what we see with Haley is just pure sheer momentum. Now, sure, she has Americans for Prosperity Action, the co-group doing some ground game work for her. And it's crucial. but they came in late to the game. So what's really fueling her is momentum and then lots of Democrats and independents who say they're going to show up in caucus for her.

And I've talked to these people, and they have told me, I've never voted in a caucus or I've certainly never voted in a Republican caucus, but I'm going to go on Monday night, which is just a few minutes from now at this point, I'm going to change my registration to Republicans so I can vote for Nikki Haley.

And so we will see if that comes to fruition. If it does, then that Selsor poll that we got, the Des Moines Register poll, will look pretty good. And if it doesn't happen, then Haley's finish may not be as good as the recent polling has suggested. And not just from the DMR poll, but from the last six polls, she's either led to Santis or been tied with him in the last six Iowa polls. Let me throw this question to Kevin. and then I want to get questions, I'm just teeing you guys up. I want to get questions from both David and Kevin for Mike. What do you want to know from Mike who's in New Hampshire

and is going to be reporting on what's happening here in the next few days? So think about that while I pose this question to Kevin. You can see it on the screen from Stephen. If Nikki Haley wins second place by a convincing margin, let's say three or four points, what are the chances that DeSantis drops out before New Hampshire? What do you think? I mean, there's been a lot of, there's sort of been a lot of whispering about the possibility that would DeSantis would drop out. As Nikki Haley pointed out in the debate last week repeatedly, he spent nearly $150 million.

And we've seen his national polling number go from, you know, depending on the poll, 30-ish, down to 10, 12. Does he stick around if he loses, if he comes in third? I think he probably sticks around. at least through New Hampshire, he'll be under a lot of pressure to drop out, but the fact is because of a number of factors on the decline of the official party power, the rise to small dollar donations, there's no one who really has the power, pressure point on him to say you have to quit now for your own political future and for the good of the party. No one can make him do that. He's a pretty stubborn guy. He seems like a pretty, a man who does not suffer from an

excessive sense of humility. And so I think he's likely to maybe stick around it through at least one more to see if he can maybe pull some magical rabbit out of the hat. You want me to ask Mike a question now or wait until after Drucker? Yeah. What question? I mean, all of the attention is going to be on Iowa tonight and probably tomorrow morning and then quickly turn to New Hampshire.

What should we want to hear from Mike Warren? What should he be reporting on? What are the open questions in New Hampshire? You one thing I'm curious about in New Hampshire is that let me take a second to heat praise on John McCormick's report from Vivek Ramoswamy Land, which I thought was just a wonderful, wonderful piece of reporting and made me laugh out loud and smile. And I'm wondering how much of a factor he is still going to be in New Hampshire, where these kind of conspiracy theory-driven social media candidates are, they're not normal politicians. and so it's hard to end their campaigns in normal politician kind of ways. So do we expect him to be sticking around and being, you know, a 7, 8, 9, 10 point factor of some sort? I don't know if it goes that high, Kevin, but I do think Vivek is going to stick around.

In fact, I was looking at a compendium of events for this week trying to figure out what I was going to cover. And there's a lot of Vivek this week here. and he has a, you know, has basically an unlimited amount of money so he can stick around here. I think that is a real big problem for Nikki Haley. I was again talking with this operative that I mentioned earlier who said, look, she's going to need every non-Trump vote that she can get because the polling, and I believe AFP, which is supporting our Americas for Prosperia, co-connected group has done polling that shows that in a head-to-head matchup, She and Donald Trump in New Hampshire are neck and neck. So that's the problem for her if Vivek sticks around. Even if DeSantis, if DeSantis is a good night, which...

Did you think Vivek hurts her more than he hurts Trump? Yeah, can Michael, can I follow up on that too? Vivek has revealed himself to be a total clown, an unsurious person, and a kooky conspiracy theorist. We don't need to be neutral about this. The guy's... In spite of bad, he's not winning. He's not an idiot. He's not an idiot. He's a conspiracy theorist and he's graven.

Why would she suffer from a guy who's appealing to those cooks? Well, I don't know if those cooks are coming out for anybody else. So maybe their support for him sort of dilutes again, the non-Trump. But maybe it is the case that if they were to get out, he'd have a bunch of voters go over Trump and bolster Trump. So maybe he's keeping Trump down. I don't know. Everybody seems to think that everybody who's voting for Trump is voting for Trump and he doesn't really have much more to get.

And the question is sort of how the rest of them kind of balance it out. But you may be right. I mean, it's hard to say he is a factor here. And maybe he does help bring Trump's numbers down a little bit. But I think the bigger question is where do Christie's former voters go? and what happens with Ron DeSantis? If Ron DeSantis is a better night than expected in Iowa, does he get a little boost here and hurt Haley's momentum?

If he gets second place, does that hurt Haley's momentum? I think those are big questions. Although I will say there is, and I've talked to voters who say this as well, New Hampshire loves to do the opposite of what Iowa does. So if Iowa lifts DeSantis up, New Hampshire might want to sort of say, okay, that's nice, Iowa. we have our own, we have our own people that we like to support.

And that could be to Haley's benefit. David, you are headed to New Hampshire. I am headed to New Hampshire. Sarah's headed to New Hampshire. Jonah's headed to New Hampshire. I think John McCormick is headed to New Hampshire. You're going to have a lot of dispatch staffers reporting, doing work and analysis from New Hampshire. What's the biggest question that you would pose to Mike?

about New Hampshire, its significance. And then what follows, we have after New Hampshire's South Carolina, as David Cotchell mentioned, 35 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina, a lot could change potentially. What's your question for Mike? And then we have passed an hour. So we will take your question and we will wrap because we believe in being on time. Look, I think the biggest question is, what does a Haley victory in New Hampshire look like. In other words, she's down roughly 12 points. That's real competitive given Trump's lead

until now. There was one poll where she was down only six or seven, but I think the average is anywhere from 12 to 14. So even if it's improbable or even if it's very difficult, if you're going to sketch out how Haley gets it done, what does that look like? What has to happen? And what are those numbers look like and what can she do starting tomorrow through next Tuesday to pull off what would be a pretty big upset? I want to know what New Hampshire Republicans that know how this stuff works and know what the electorate looks like or could look like. I want scenarios from them. I agree. I want, I'm asking people that. I think that is the big million. million dollar question. This is the way it's been laid out to me based on the conversations

I've had so far and I've just been here a day. But I do think that there is a question of how many of those undeclared voters, people who do not have a party affiliation, end up voting in the Republican primary because there seems to be a sense that almost all of those are Haley's they're up for grabs for Haley. Again, Republicans in this state, they sort of already know who they're voting for. It's all about the undeclared. And the second thing they say is, does she sort of pay, does the amount of time that she's spent here in New Hampshire pay off for her?

Is she able to sort of close the deal? She's been here a lot. Ron DeSantis put everything in in Iowa. Nikki Haley put pretty much almost everything in. New Hampshire. And people say that that's worked out for her, that that boost that you've seen in the polls for her over the last couple of weeks is the fruits of that labor. The question is, can she close in these last weeks by saying, look, I put in the work here. I've got your governor on board, very popular governor. And also, I can do better against Joe Biden than Donald

Trump. She's got to make that case, they say. And the thing that they say about New Hampshire voters is Iowa voted for Donald Trump in 2016 of the general election and in 2020 in the general election. New Hampshire voted against Donald Trump in both of those general elections. And the folks I talk to say that makes a huge difference. New Hampshire Republicans are tired of losing and they would like to win and they feel like they could win even in general election with Nikki Haley. They know they can't win with Donald Trump. Can she close that deal? Well, Nikki Haley famously said in Iowa that New Hampshire corrects what Iowa has done. Ron DeSantis has tried to use that repeatedly.

We'll see tonight, I guess, if it's had any effect. That might be a good argument for her in New Hampshire in the coming days. Thank you, Mike, for your work from New Hampshire. Thank you, David, joining us from Iowa. Thank you, Kevin. for spending some time with us. We'll miss you as you take a little break for family matters, for new kids, excited for you, eager to get reports.

Well, I'm really quite a little breaking that news, Steve, but I guess that's out of the basket. Well, I'm sorry. I thought it was public, but, you know, we believe in breaking news at the dispatch, so I'm, I'm sorry to break family news at the dispatch. Well, I didn't say any of that. If you want to provide additional details for this, for you use the plural. I will address it in an upcoming newsletter. I did.

Watch for Wanderland. That's good. So if you're a current dispatch member, you already are going to get the news and you'll get these details. If you are not yet a dispatch member, you should sign up not only to get brilliant political analysis like you've seen from Mike, David, Kevin, Sarah, Jonah, Andrew, David Cottrell. but also you can get details of Kevin's dues that I broke on Dispatch Live tonight. Thank you all for joining us. I'd like to just remind people that we have a dispatch event in New Hampshire, Concord, New Hampshire on Wednesday night.

I'm told that there are a limited number of tickets still available. So if you're in the area, you'd like to join us, we're doing an event with the Josiah Bartlett Center up there. Terrific, terrific conservative group up there. Mike will be there. Sarah Isker will be there. Jonah will be there on. I'm coming up.

Drew Klein from the Josiah Bartlett Center will be there. Excited to do that event. There's a lot to talk about. And we will chew over the results that we're about to see here in Iowa and talk about what comes after New Hampshire. So thank you all very much for joining us. We did go a little bit over time. I'm sorry.

But I think it was worth sticking around. Thanks all. Have a good night. Thanks for watching.