The Dispatch Podcast - Infrastructure Deal's Uncertain Future

Episode Date: June 25, 2021

Sarah and Chris Stirewalt welcome RealClearPolitics associate editor and columnist A.B. Stoddard to the show today to run the gamut of the week’s political news. They discuss whether the bipartisan infrastructure deal is actually a compromise (and whether it can pass), why Kamala Harris is finally traveling to the border, and what needs to happen in Congress to preclude a nightmare scenario for the Republic in January 2025. Show Notes: -The Morning Dispatch breaks down infrastructure negotiations -Dems Botched Voting Rights; They Need a New Bill (A.B. Stoddard, RealClearPolitics) -The Sweep: Election Day in Gotham Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Dispatch podcast. I'm your host, Sarah Isger. And this week, it'll be me and Chris Dyerwald talking to A.B. Stoddard. She is an associate editor and columnist at Real Clear Politics. She's who I have to turn to anytime I've got real questions about the Hill, how it works. We have so much to talk about between infrastructure, the Voting Rights Act bill, the filibuster. Plus, maybe we'll talk a little 2022, 2024-24 Republican Republican. campaign politics. Let's dive in. A.B, I am looking at this bipartisan infrastructure bill, and I am confused because what it looks like to me is that the original Biden infrastructure bill is actually what's still going to happen. It's just that they split it into two parts and Republicans are going to vote for half of it and then they're going to do the other half without any Republican votes. And I'm not sure why we're calling that bipartisan. That's a really good point.

In fact, there's a really good chance that none of it passes because their plan, their secret top, their top secret strategy is so complicated that they might have stepped on a rake. What they wanted to do was make the transportation part bipartisan so that Biden can say, and the Democrats can say, the Congress functioned, we worked in a bipartisan way across the aisle on something that all these presidents before him wanted to do. And that in and of itself would be a feat to have an infrastructure package and have it be bipartisan. Obviously, it's extremely popular across the political divide, and that would be something to campaign on. It's this social welfare part that is so controversial, even between Democrats, because it's really expensive, and they're going to try to pack all the climate priorities into that. There really is a scenario for people trying to understand what happened with this two-step where you don't actually get Senators Mansion and Cinema, who are the key votes, on this social welfare package.

And that blows this entire thing up. because the progressives are demanding that they know what is going to be passed guaranteed in their, quote, human infrastructure package before they will support the transportation projects known as physical infrastructure. For Republicans in the Senate, if they see too much balking on the progressive side about that big hulking human infrastructure package, it's going to be harder to get them on the transportation package. So it's hard to follow and it's going to be really hard to pull off. And Biden has said he won't sign one without the other, which to me is what sort of undermines

this whole thing. It'd be one thing to say, like, we're going to do this bipartisan infrastructure package with the Republicans. And then I also want this thing from the Democrats. That's just how legislation works, but he's saying that the two have to be signed together, which is why I think you're saying this may not happen at all. If you look at the price tag, the timeline, and the politics, it's nuts. I mean, we are heading into a period where they, first of all, they wanted it by July 4th. That's not happening. They want to do all of these budget resolutions for the party-only track vote that everyone knows now as reconciliation because that's how they pass the COVID package in the winter. Reconciliation can only deal with budget math legislation.

It cannot deal with voting rights or immigration or health care. It has to do with what we spend and how we spend it. And so what they're trying to do is jam everything into something that's a budget resolution, get everybody on board with that by the end of July, and then make sure that they get everybody for the bipartisan bill at the same time. And the most important thing to consider here is the calendar, we're going to get to the point where you have the threat of the debt ceiling being breached the same time that we head into annual government shutdown window. And as this window of time for the Biden administration to enact anything comes to a close. And we head into an election year. All of the ringsmanship and all of the posturing and partisanship will come to,

you know, come to a head at this cliff with the debt ceiling and the government spending bills in what usually is late September, but now often bleeds into late October. And so the idea that you can do a bipartisan bill with Republicans on transportation projects at the same time that you're trying to get Bernie Sanders down from $6 trillion on his budget resolution. And he's saying things like, oh, really, you want me to support the transportation bipartisan bill? Why don't you tell me what's in it? Because they haven't even figured out the bottom line on that price tag and those pay-for's. It just is, it just sounds really great. But if you look at it. at the mechanics, it's just hard to believe that they can pull this off because they do have,

the debt ceiling and government spending is always the most important. And that's hard enough in and of itself. So jamming everything else into that is asking a lot. Chris, this sounds like a press conference in search of an accomplishment. Well, I think the first thing we have to say here is that A.B. Stoddard, the listeners cannot see her, but she looks remarkably lovely as always, but looks remarkably refreshed. She is cogent and she is knowledgeable and has a four-month-old puppy. And I think that's the, a human that can do that truly has my admiration every day. You're too good to me, Starwalt.

No one could be good enough to you. But the audience doesn't know that I signed on this morning moaning and groaning of puppy duty and puppy prison. But it's for the larger, good of bringing light into the world. I want to tug on, you talked about how. So I definitely follow about how as the progressive left becomes increasingly frustrated with not getting more out of the Biden presidency and not getting more out of the moment, that I can definitely see how the human capital legislation incinerates, right, that Joe Manchin Cinema and maybe even

some others stop short at whatever the massive thing is going to be. And of course, as you say, since it will be overlaid with the preposterous idea that someone would allow Bernie Sanders to write a budget, that those two things running concurrently will cause a fracture and potential failure on the Democratic side on this other big piece of it. But explain. for us why that will hurt the chances of getting 10 Republicans to support just the concrete and girder transportation infrastructure part of it? Well, I mean, I think that the Republicans, the war they're using is hostage. So as Sarah points out, how bipartisan is it if it comes with a threat that, you know,

we need to find these other Republicans for our kumbaya, bipartisan. partisan package, but we're only going to pursue it, really, if we get everything into a big progressive wish list bill that's really expensive at the same time. And as Biden said, they have to be done in tandem. So it's easy for Mitch McConnell to go to the Republicans if he sees this as a runaway expensive mess and say, look, they're just playing games with you. You know, this isn't really going to help Lisa Murkowski in her campaign next year. This is just, you know, a big game. And look at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, tweeting about how the picture at the White House of this

undiverse crowd forming a bipartisan rump group to put together legislation that is not representative of the most people and is not inclusive legislating and inclusive governance. It's going to be so easy to talk Republicans out of it because of the hostage situation. That's the problem for Biden is he wants this and he's always wanted it and Republicans know it, but as long as he holds it hostage to the other thing instead of just promises the progressives, really, really, I'm going to deliver, really, really, we'll get Joe and cinema to come along, it's easy for Republicans to be pressured out of supporting it. So if you're a Republican who is saying that I see upset, I think for a lot of Republicans

would like to vote for the spending bill, I think there's a ton of them, the ones who I would like to be on the record for supporting something, but there will be downsides and there are primary risks and you could run into trouble as a Republican senator for supporting legislation even that was pretty broadly popular. Your point is that since it might, you might vote for it and it might never get signed if that's what you're thinking. So I got to take a little bit of a chance to vote for this piece of legislation that might hurt me with my primary base. I'll be seen cooperating with the Democrats if it might be wasted because Biden nix is the

whole thing because the Democrats fall apart on the other piece, that that's why it will make it harder to recruit Republicans. Yes. And so you have to find Republicans. Look who is at the White House, right? Collins, Romney, Portman, who's retiring. Romney, who's an island. Colin just reelected.

Was Cassidy there? He was just reelected. So you have to find Republicans, like, they need, Pat, to me. They need Lindsay Graham. They need people who are retiring or just reelected, or people like Mitt Romney, who don't care. And so it's hard to find 10 of those. And Graham's already said he's out. He's mad about the hostage situation.

So he's done. Well, he's just mad. Old Lindsay's just, he's just mad. It's going to get him right back onto Hannity tonight. Exactly. Good thing for him. Bookers take note. We've talked to her about the strategy on the left,

but there's also a problem a little bit with this strategy on the right, because now there's been an announcement that there's a bipartisan deal. Whether or why that was in the Republican caucus's interest as a whole we can talk about, but what are the politics now if it falls apart for the Republicans? because I think what the left is thinking here is they went either way. They've made the announcement that there's a bipartisan deal. If the bipartisan deal happens, great. Biden can claim, see, look, everyone said it couldn't get done.

I got it done. If the Republicans pull out, they can say, we had a deal. This just proves how toxic the Republican Party is that they can't even get on board with a compromise infrastructure deal. So if you're Mitch McConnell, where do you go now? Oh, I don't think the Democrats have the Republicans in a trap on this. one. I really don't. I think they're going to say we didn't know it was going to be paired with this monster package and it was do or die and we don't need to be, you know, we didn't know we were

going to be trapped and we're not playing ball on that. And that's not how, that's not bipartisan. And so, no, I remember, the people that want this to happen are not representative of the leadership. It's not John Thune. It's not Mitch McConnell. It's not John Barrasso. The people in this group and And I do a lot of work with no labels, and I know who's at the table, you know, will surprise people, people, like Roger Wickers there and Todd Young and Mike Rounds and, you know, Bill Cassidy's very active and, you know, occasionally Cornyn's there. Joni Ernst, of course, was just reelected. But it's, it, there are a lot of people who just really want to believe that they're serving

in the Senate and that it's still function. And so it's actually personally really important for them to be able to say to their kids, let alone, you know, their constituents, I actually work for a governing body and this, and we can function. And all the time and effort I put in has, it actually yielded something. And that's, that's the people that are at the table on this. They're not doing it to help the Republican Party or get reelected. These people are at the table because they,

desperately want the Congress to function. And that might be naive and we'll find out. But doesn't Roger Wicker also have to figure in people like Roger? Why was Shelly Capito pushing so hard on round one for this or Wicker? Pork is still tasty, right? People still, lawmakers, even though it carries these risks in primary elections, it's free money and free stuff is still very popular. By the way, fact check, pork is still tasty. Pork is definitely still tasty. And if you're Roger Wicker, you know, whether Mississippi is a Democratic state or a Republican state, having the power, and this is Joe Manchin, this is Shelly Capito. These are even in states that are mucho-trumpo. It is, this is maybe, maybe we're saying the same thing.

This is an assertion of the old belief that maybe Congress doing its job can be politically beneficial to somebody that it might help. Yes. I mean, infrastructure is very, all this stuff is very popular. And so the bet on the Democratic side is that if they pass the physical by transportation project package with Republicans and then they jam this other stuff through with reconciliation that even some of the social welfare program stuff will be popular and that the public won't even be aware what was passed by what process.

But the, but the, but the, all the stuff in the bipartisan package, as you know from West Virginia is needed. It's popular. And, I mean, people have wanted to, to upgrade these, these, these systems and, and these buildings and these ports and these air, I mean, for years, let alone, you know, rural broadband. So it's, it's, it's a good thing for your constituents, but I, I just wanted to bring up the fact that they have personal stake in it. Because they really want to believe that the Congress can function. Don't you think there's – and maybe I'm not – I never know these days whether I'm too cynical or not cynical enough. I go back and forth. This is why we need Charles Crouthammer to tell us the cynic meter where we are.

Exactly. Now I know when to – I don't know when to panic anymore. But I sort of figure that what Biden is doing here is, yes, I'm going to sign them both together. Yes, I'm going to do the thing. And then the, quote, facts on the ground will change. something will happen, and he will sign the one and not the other, when the other one's not ready. And it will be unpopular and it will cause a lot of blowback, but he will also, it will also be very popular that he's signed into, if he could really get one, if he could really get the bipartisan one over the finish line and the Democrats weren't done on daycare as infrastructure, then I figure he'd sign it and come up with a good story why he did. Starwalt, that's exactly what Progressives Fear.

Yeah, I think they should. Because, of course, he's going to sign it, probably. And a win is a win. I mean, you just don't walk away. And then, you know, what the White House, and we'll get to this later, if we talk campaigns, I mean, the White House is aware that they're going to lose them in terms anyway. And that the low propensity coalition is not going to turn out. They're not going to be happy no matter what. Even if they passed the social welfare stuff, it won't be, they wouldn't have gotten voting rights, and they wouldn't have gotten this, and they, and they wouldn't have saved the world and reordered society. And so this is, this is deeply understood by the establishment of the Democratic Party, the leadership in Congress,

and the White House team, that those voters didn't turn out for Obama and they're not going to turn out for Biden and that the progressives have promised way too much to the voters just because Trump gave them to Georgia Senate seats. And so they know that I'm with you, Chris. I mean, I just can't imagine that that somehow gets over the finish line and he says, no, no, we're still waiting for the child care, elder care portion. And I think he's just, I think he'd have to do it. Let's actually just take a little frolic and detour on a little bit of the politics here because I also am curious what your reporting, et cetera, tells you about how the White House views the progressive wing of their party.

We just had the New York City mayor's race. At least we have the first round results where, you know, in New York City, and just, you know, to quote the Pace Pecanti salsa ads. New York City, in New York City, the most progressive candidate, you know, got 20% of the vote. And that was sort of the defund the police side. The absolutely do not defund the police.

We need to fight crime. Are you kidding me? Eric Adams candidate. And this is the Democratic primary in New York City. Got 30%. And if you add in Yang and Catherine Garcia, who also were much more the moderate side, you know, you're getting into the 50% plus range. So I'm curious whether

the White House sees the progressives as a very loud but very minority voice or if they're overestimating even what the progressive side represents. I think the White House is very aware that the party isn't progressive and that if AOC backs Maya Wiley and it doesn't work out And it doesn't look like it will when all the votes are in. If you can't make it there, you can't make it anywhere. So this has been the tension because the Justice Democrats are really good at getting people primaried and into Congress in blue, blue seats. But they're not good at winning anything else. They don't win swing seats.

And so there they are with this four-seat majority where they can't piss off the squad that got bigger in the last election. But they're very well aware that the party isn't progressive, that they're active on Twitter, as we all lament, and that that's not representative of what's going on. The coalition that brought Joe Biden into office barely was a coalition of former Republicans, independence, and older black voters who are mostly more socially conservative. And on the margins, they got some young and non-white voters who are more progressive, but they wouldn't have won without the voters I just mentioned. And so that's why you hear Jim Clyburn, the assistant majority leader and Biden whisper get out there and say, we like the police. We do not want to defund the police. So they can't chastise or scold the progressive left out loud. And they do a lot of really shrewd work behind the scenes to keep, as you noticed,

people like AOC and Bernie quiet for the first four months that they were in office. They're really good at the care and the feeding and they're really good at the outreach. but they absolutely know that they're not going to hold power in the midterm elections if they pass a bunch of progressive priorities. Those people won't turn out anyway, and they need to hold. What they really need is they need kind of Republicans who voted for Biden or didn't vote at the top of ticket because they didn't like Trump. They voted for Republicans down ballot, and they might turn out to vote for Republicans

again. And they sort of need them to stay home and be disinterested and not be charged up. So we're going to get to that, definitely, and how each side will try to accomplish and unaccomplish that goal. I want you to help me, though, think through some terms. Because when I, for instance, Chris and I both have lamented issue polling and how unhelpful it can be in the wrong hands and actually, often even in the right hands, it's very unhelpful. when we talk about progressives, I think that the term has now been stretched way past its ability to describe because we're talking about the progressive wing of the Democratic Party right now, you and I, that's AOC, that's Bernie, that's the like minority, you know, set that we're talking about.

But then when we talk about Joe Biden's legislative agenda, it also gets described as progressive, that, you know, big spending package where he wants this FDR, like role of government expansion. That's not actually the same as the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Can you help us sort through that and maybe come up with better terms for the distinctions within the Biden agenda and the Democratic Party's different wings? Oh, I wish you'd submitted this to me the night before so that I could think straight. That's a tough one. I mean, I guess the progressive far-left wing of the party, you know, there's social justice

warriors, not only big spenders. And so there's a lot of focus on identity, politics, and all that. They love jargon. Don't you figure that it's like, don't you figure that it's like Republicans that on fiscal issues, Biden and Democrats, the rest of the progressive Democrats, substantially agree, want to spend a lot of money, want to do a lot of stuff. it's on culture issues and social issues where you find you get the sharpest divisions within parties.

Exactly, which is so interesting because they have a lot more cohesion on that big spending than the Republicans do because a few Republicans are left saying we can't spend money. And then a bunch of Trump Republicans don't care about any of that. So that's sort of fascinating. But yes, Biden is a liberal spender who finds himself in what he thinks is a make or break moment for the middle and working class and, of course, democracy, which he talks about all the time and did in announcing the bipartisan infrastructure package. Your piece for real clear was, as one would expect, thoroughly researched and quite persuasive

on the voting right, on the Democrats' failure with the for the People Act. and you point out that it was over lauded. It was a messaging bill that suddenly turned into a must. We were told it was a must pass piece of legislation. And then, of course, it didn't pass because it was a messaging bill. And you exhort Democrats to find more reasonable legislation that can get some Republican support so that we can try to patch up democracy a little bit so that we can try to rebuild a little consensus because I think you and I share the same fear that there's a scenario we could

talk about where Republicans win back the Congress in midterms and then won't ratify a Democratic presidential victory in 2024. Some of these nightmare scenarios where you could flush the republic really in the course of 10 years. You could really just kiss it all goodbye because once you stop having the peaceful transference of power, you don't get it back. The onion headline was Americans encouraged to start thinking about what form of government they want when democracy crumbles. Not long ago, I saw someone go through a sudden loss and it was a stark reminder of how quickly life can change and why protecting the people you love is so important. Knowing you can take steps to help protect your loved ones and give them that extra layer of security

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But I was, by Pensian standard, certainly, that was a fairly courageous and spicy action to go and say Donald Trump is wrong and what they wanted us to do was wrong and to say it explicitly. What was your read on that? I was completely stunned because, Chris, until now, as you noted, Mike Pence has been terrified on, you know, in, it. in, he's been with the program, meaning he's done whatever Donald Trump wanted at all times. And I thought that he spent months, he must be living in a witness protection program, by the way, because there are people that, he's a hunted man. I mean, there are people that physically want to kill him, and Christian activists calling him a traitor last Friday, which really all that you need to know.

But I thought that his initial comments several weeks ago were going to be his, his line, that he had come to a decision that that sort of wimpy characterization of it, he and I are just never going to see eye to eye on what happened on that terrible day. You have it. You have it right. And I hate to interrupt, but you have it right. And I thought that's what Pence had arrived at. 80 started, hold on.

You have it right. Mike Pence does sound like he's always doing a George Bush impersonation, and your impersonation of Mike Pence was on the money. Thank you. Please proceed. But I'm just stunned that he actually. either recalibrated or, you know, I don't know, strategically plan to first do a test run with that line and then wait to be so bold. And for Pence, this is, I mean, there will be a response.

You know, this is, I mean, apparently, you know, Trump has never stopped being enraged about January 6th, then he's enraged that Pence got a book deal. Like, this is just the idea that Pence is running for president and the idea that people in bad standing like Pence and Nikki Haley think they can run around and run for president of course is going to make you know people the man turn more orange and so the idea that Pence would would do that just days after being screamed and heckled as a traitor I'm just stunned I really am I can't say I'm impressed because I'm not going to use the word impressed with Mike Pence in my few days left on this earth so you so may they be many So you don't know, you don't know this about me, but I am pretty long on Mike Pence's chances in

2024 right now. What? I think Pence has, of anybody who I can see, Mike Pence has the best chance to win the Republican nomination. No. And everybody write this down. Seriously. I've been saying it.

And certainly it will depend on who run. Obviously, it will depend on what the perceived inputs among Republicans from 2020 are. should it be more MAGA, less MAGA, whatever the conventional wisdom comes out. How are you seeing Ron DeSantis' downfall then? Well, I don't think Ron DeSantis is a very good politician particularly. I think he's awkward. I think he's awkward. But anyway, I think Pence's advantage, and that's what I saw, I will say impress me,

because Pence has a decision to make. he's going to run, is he going to run and obtain the benefit of what he did on January 6th or not? And so this was him saying, I am going to tell the establishment of the Republican Party, I'm going to tell the normal Republicans, then I am okay and that this is okay. And then he'll have to, then the question is, can he own that lane by himself? But I thought that was a big step forward for him and probably good for the country. Of course. I'm going to marinate on this. I need to like chew all of the Stairwalt feast that I feel like I was just given. So, well, let's just, let's stay on this line then. A.B., when you look at 2022, you said that the White House already thinks that the midterms are basically gone at this point. To me, the two big issues that the Republicans will want to emphasize are rising crime and that that's how they'll sort of reach the independent, the wobble,

and then the critical race theory, culture war stuff, will be the other side of that coin. What do Democrats need to do, as you said, to keep those more moderate Republicans, more wobbly Republicans to stay home this time if Republicans are relatively successful at pushing those two agenda items? Right. Well, I think the Democrats think that. that they can run on a successful vaccine program and $1,400 checks while, on policy, while Republicans run on Dr. Seuss and trans athletes and CRT. And I think that Republicans are going to win. Why?

Because there's four seats that divides them in the House. And between three to eight seats and redistricting maps alone go to the Republicans and it's game over, let alone that they could pick up in a midterm what is traditionally 20. to 30 seats in the first term, midterm of a new presidency for his same party. And so you don't go to the midterm elections to thank people. You go because you're mad and full of venom. And so I think the culture of wars alone will work. That's a great bumper sticker, by the way, that I may steal for the sweep this week. You don't vote in the midterms to thank people. Such a great way of putting that. But as

you point out piled on top of that, all the Snapchat messages you can send about that crap and get people to send in money and talk about, I don't know, Marjorie Taylor Green or whatever, you know, gets people excited. And then also what gets them at, on top of that, there is going to be a concern for Democrats over a festering crisis at the border, inflation, and spikes in violent crime. You can't make those go away. And those are things that middle of the, those are governance issues that middle of the road voters who don't watch Hannity are going to be upset by. And that messaging will resonate with them. So Biden is underwater on immigration. It's one of the issues, I think it's the issue he is most underwater on. Yeah.

In issue polling that you already know I don't love. But when Harris goes to, the border today, what are the White House's goals for that trip politically? To stop the bleeding. I mean, look, they did this too late. It sounds like it's a response to Trump going with, you know, Paul Gossar or whatever House Republicans are going to accompany him. And she had that terrible interview where she didn't have a good response about not going of the border. And she's just not, you know, earning a lot of good faith from the political codenocente. But I just wonder if the voters are starting to pay attention because they did such a good job of like hiding her or keeping her at Joe Biden's side at every vaccine event for three

months. And now that they've given her, you know, these jobs and voter, and she's more visible and voters might pay attention, they might have to actually start thinking about, wow, is Joe Biden going to run for a second term? Where's the stability? You know, is this woman thinking she can take over in 2025? Do I think she's able? And so they just should have sent her a lot sooner to shut up the conversation and then put her back in those conference rooms talking to people in the Northern Triangle and trying to deal with the, quote, diplomatic challenges of this. But I don't know what to say. I mean, it's just clean up on aisle 26, and it just was, it's too little too late.

Is there any chance of Harris being the nominee in 2024, and if so, does that, how does that look? There is very much a chance of her being the nominee because the, well, I don't know if Joe Biden's going to run again. And I mean, I know there was reporting recently about how he wants to run again. We don't know if he can because he's so old. But, you know, but he is. But at the same time, and they're doing, you know, they do a lot to help her. You know, Ron Clayne meeting with her, you know, every week and everyone guiding her and everything is and including her and things so that she learns a lot. That's all constructive.

but in the end, I don't know if she'll be challenged either from someone. If she was challenged by Pete Buttigieg, the left would freak out and protect her. But if she's not challenged from the center or the right of the party, then what if, you know, Iiana Presley challenges her? I don't know what the verdict will be on whether or not she's a sellout. it's just thousands of years from now in terms of the family fight on the left. And doesn't it depend on what Joe Biden's approval rating is, right? If Biden, all of the conversations that we're having and all the conversations everybody want to have about 2022 and 2024 and the Democratic primaries, it's like, well, tell me,

is Joe Biden at 54% or 34%? Because how popular Biden's presidency is will determine whether or how strong a position Harris would be in Tehran. it will determine how successful Republicans are at flipping the Senate. A lot will depend on whether or not, whether the dogs still like the dog food. That's true. But it's just so fascinating to think of, A, how leakproof this White House is and B. I was just talking about that the other day.

It's amazing. There's no way these conversations are not going on. Because as I said, the legislative window closes in October. That's the end. If he's only here for one term, that's the end of his window. And then you get into the midterms and then 2023 will be, you know, an election year, de facto because we're in such a, you know, we're in such a teetering on the cliff moment again, just like we were in 2019 with Trump. So, so the, these conversations are happening. That's

what's so amazing. Pelosi could step down. She could stay. You know, Biden could run again. He could not. You know, they're nervous about Kamala Harris. I mean, it's, it's just, it's just, It's just wild that all of this speculation is being kept so under wraps. There's no way it's not happening. This is an administration more discipline than the Obama administration. You have to go back to the Bush administration to find a time where, I mean, they should be leaked. If this, the Trump administration with this set of stressors would have already produced three

books, let alone a couple of leaks of the New York Times. These guys are ironclad. I think Claim deserves a lot of this. I think Kauffman, I think one of the reasons that it works is, I think, I think they like, they genuinely like Biden. But number two, they're experienced. These are all experienced people who have worked together before, who know each other before. They know who are the turds and who are the trustworthy people.

And it's, I have to say, after watching the calamitously mismanaged Trump administration, It is sort of refreshing to see it is sort of, whether you like their, whether you like their policy goals or not, it is nice to see an administration that is good at being an administration. Starwalt, you wrote the book on populism, so I'm not an expert on it, but as a non-populist, I'm just going to say, I like experience. Yeah. I'm really, we all know that you don't send your random, like, private out, you know, to attack an enemy. go to, you know, Seal Team 6, and we all know that when it comes to spine surgery or an oncologist, you know, we need the right one. This is what Jonah always reminds us of. Like, the idea, once you see it again and you see the calm and the consistency and the measured rhetoric and all,

and the teamwork and the cohesion, the lack of leaks and the lack of drama, it is a reminder that there's a reason we once actually respected expertise and mastery and experience. Amen. So looking through the summer in the fall, what are the things that A.B. Stoddard is most looking at to gauge the political ups and downs of the two parties? Let me give you some options. You don't have to pick these options. Our continued conversations over the filibuster or Durbin's kilobuster, whether the Voting Rights Act bill is going anywhere still, criminal justice reform. Obviously, the infrastructure package, what's happening with immigration on the Hill or at the White House? Or are you looking at who's showing up in Iowa? We have, you know, Tom Cotton, Pence, Haley, Pompeo, literally everyone who's ever run for office showing up in Iowa this month. What are the things you're most watching? So, I mean, I think it's interesting to see all these guys try to run for

president and what they're doing is just, you know, they're forming packs and helping candidates to build shits lower down in the party for later in case Trump doesn't run. Of course, they all hope Trump gets indicted and Trump is going to run because he doesn't want to be indicted. And he thinks that running again, well, first of all, he just needs the adulation and he needs to be the center of attention. But I started thinking after he lost, he would just pretend to run so we could continue to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for himself and his family. But it's now, I think it's imperative. I think he has to run.

That's my thinking, unless he kills over. So I sort of look at the inner, I'm going to be interested to see like when Cotton and Pompeo snip at each other, but for now, I think it's kind of a snore. I'm with Chris that we are in a position where we might have been through our last free and fair election and the idea that the Democrats are so out to lunch on this topic

focused on, you know, voter suppression is real, and you can fix that. But if everyone got water bottles in line and everyone got three-month windows to request an absentee ballot, a million 24-hour voting stations, you know, 90 days or more of early voting. If everyone had the best access and the best casting experience that was protected, we still have a situation. where the counting is now corruptible. And it's absolutely terrifying to me. And so I think really people have to step up to this issue. And I'm really surprised that, like,

it doesn't concern Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney and Adam Kinsinger, frankly. I don't know. I don't know that it doesn't. One of the, this is one of the, and by the way, while we've been talking here, the Biden administration has announced it's going to sue Georgia over its voting law. Which is interesting because we're,

also waiting on the Bernovich Supreme Court case that will most likely come out Monday at this point. And that was a lawsuit about Arizona's voting laws and whether they violated Section 2. That's the race section of the Voting Rights Act. And they had out of precinct voting. They banned out of precinct voting and ballot harvesting. So if the Supreme Court upholds both of those, which everyone expects them to do, I'm curious what that lawsuit really is going to look like in Georgia, but we'll see. So I think there are a lot, I have talked to a lot of Republicans

who are genuinely concerned about the very things you describe. The question is, if you, this is what we can, we can go back to where we were, which is, how alarmed should they appear publicly,

right? So if you're deeply concerned, I am deeply concerned that there is, and maybe it's not the highest probability outcome, but there is a significant probability outcome that we could see the 2024 presidential election fail. And if we fail at one, we won't come back, right? It goes away. Totally agreed. You break it one time. In the time that we've had one republic, France has had five, and that's France. But the other side of that equation is, If I go around every, if every column I wrote, every appearance I made, every speech I gave, every article I wrote, everything that I did, I was like, do you know how scary this is?

I'm not probably going to be heard as well. So figuring out, so let's say you are Liz Cheney or you are Ben Satt, that you're a conscientious Republican who is concerned about these things. How do you fight it? And I don't think you can fight it by being, by seeming excessively alarmed. I think you have to fight it. You have to, you have to be like a duck. You've got to be all placid above the water line and then kicking like hell under the surface. And I think it's a tough spot to be in, but I think that's about all you can do.

Well, what is the outcome? I mean, what I want is a mansion-driven bipartisan bill. we can get 10 Republicans that deals with, you know, equal access to the vote, but also deals, but doesn't deal with all the other stupid stuff they put in HR1 and sheds that and then focuses solely on this, the idea of ignoring certification for your funny, made-up reasons. And I don't know the answer. I'm not, I don't write bills. And it may have to have it on a state-by-state basis. But yes, that is. The greatest threat that I can see to the Republic right now are laws like the one in Georgia,

like the one that's on its way in Texas, like what they, in Arizona, what Republicans across the country want to do, that if those laws were in place in 2020, would have made it possible for Donald Trump to steal the election and that they are going back and tearing down those internal barriers. I don't care about, well, I care about, but suppressing votes. trying to make it harder for people to vote as a thing Republicans do because their misguided belief that low turnout helps them. Democrats want to push people, make it as easy as possible to vote because they mistakenly believe that higher turnout invariably benefits them. It's this stuff that is the cancer, right? These changes are very dangerous, but it may really have to be done

on the state level because I don't know that there's a federal remedy. Well, I hope someone's at it right now, Chris, under the water. That's all I'm saying. Amen. Amen. All right, let's wrap up this conversation with the most important topic, which is your new puppy. We're going to need some information here. We obviously, you need to tell everyone the breed, the name, but I think what we really want is a better description of what kind of dog parent you are. And let me give you some factors to consider. Will your dog wear clothes? What is the activity that your dog is going to do? Does your dog get to watch, you know, dog-specific movies when you're not at home? Are you going to be wearing clothing with pictures of your dog on it or drinking coffee from a mug with pictures of your dog on it?

Would you say that you're a helicopter parent at the dog park or more free-range fur baby parent? Oh, and do you call him a fur baby? Please tell us. Oh, my gosh. This is awesome. Sarah is steeped in like freaky dog people, I can tell. There will be no clothes. I don't use the term fur baby.

Thank you. What's interesting about dog ownership is that my last dog was so neurotic. We rescued him at seven months. He'd been homeless. He'd been in shelters and fosters for seven months. And he was just hardwired to always think that he was going to be left. So he was a frantic dog, the most lovable, just beautiful soul. But he sent, so Homer was the anxious one.

Chief is our new dog. And Homer sent Chief to me because Chief is completely fearless. He loves everybody. Nice. He has no issues. And so it's really hard for me to, but I love it to be in the street with him. And dogs come up and to remember that he's going to be totally fine. So that's been wonderful. And I really truly feel like that's what happened. But I, but it's, it's really interesting to raise a puppy for the first time because I've only adopted pretty much, you know, not full-grown, but almost grown dogs, to watch how they change every week. So that's a trip. Like, I don't, I feel like we don't even really fully know Chief yet, but he's pretty cool. And he, he's absolutely beautiful. He's four-month-old golden retriever.

And he, we got him in Missouri. And he is from the heart of Trump country. And he, he, is he's just really good stock he is um he that i i i am is he gonna get the sleep in your bed where does he sleep where does he sleep no no he sleeps in a crate and our theory on crates is that it's just until they can calm down and then they can sleep once they're like a year old or something they can sleep on the floor in a bed but i can't have him doing his hyena moves three in the morning right now um and and i don't we don't really leave him alone yet so I mean, he's in the crate for his naps, but I might have to break down on the screen rules

and put him in front of iPad for dog mesmerizing videos when I'm an empty nester this fall and all three of my kids go to college and my husband and I are stuck with Chief. All right, A.B., thank you so much for joining us. This was a treat. We think the world of you. I mean, not just friend of the pod, right? Like actual wonderful friend and mentor, so thank you.

You guys are my people. I love you. It was so much fun to be with you. Thanks for having me. Thanks, A.B. With Amex Platinum, access to exclusive Amex pre-sale tickets can score you a spot trackside. So being a fan for life turns into the trip of a lifetime. That's the powerful backing of Amex. Pre-sale tickets for future events subject to availability and varied by race. Terms and conditions apply. Learn more at MX.ca.com.