The Dispatch Podcast - Is Donald Trump's Golden Age Here?

Episode Date: February 13, 2026

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Megan McArdle to discuss the Trump administration’s failed attempt to indict six Democrats and assess the state of the economy one year into the president’s second term. The Agenda:—Democrats' 'Don't Give Up the Ship' video—Pam Bondi's testimony before Congress—Loyalty under Trump 2.0—Republican opposition to tariffs—January 2026 jobs report—CBO debt forecast—NWYT: Valentine's Day The Dispatch Podcast is a production of ⁠⁠⁠The Dispatch⁠⁠⁠, a digital media company covering politics, policy, and culture from a non-partisan, conservative perspective. To access all of The Dispatch’s offerings—including access to all of our articles, members-only newsletters, and bonus podcast episodes—⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠. If you’d like to remove all ads from your podcast experience, consider becoming a premium Dispatch member ⁠⁠⁠by clicking here⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dispatch podcast is presented by Pacific Legal Foundation, suing the government since 1973. Welcome to the dispatch podcast. I'm Steve Hayes, joined today by my dispatch colleagues, Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson and dispatch contributor and Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle. On this week's roundtable, we'll discuss the failed attempt by the Trump administration to indict the six Democrats involved in a video urging members of the military to refuse unlawful orders. We'll also get into Pam Bondi's testimony before the House Judiciary Committee, and Trump's economy when you're into his second term, and is stronger than expected January jobs numbers. Finally, for not worth your time, Valentine's Day.

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Last fall, six Democratic lawmakers, all former military or intelligence officials, recorded a video reminding active duty service members that they aren't honest. obligated to follow unlawful orders in response to the Trump administration strikes on alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean. This video, not only enraged Donald Trump, but we learned this week that the Department of Justice tried to indict those six Democrats for that message. Let's take a listen to that video. I'm Senator Alyssa Slotkin. Senator Mark Kelly. Representative Chris Deluzio. Congressman Maggie Goodlander. Representative Chrissy Houlehan. Congressman Jason Crow. I was a captain in the United States Navy. Former CIA

former Navy. Former paratrooper and Army Ranger. Former intelligence officer. Former Air Force. We want to speak directly to members of the military. And the intelligence community who take risks each day to keep Americans safe. We know you are under enormous stress and pressure right now. Americans trust their military.

But that trust is at risk. This administration is pitting our uniform military and intelligence community professionals. Against American citizens. Like us, you all swore an oath. To protect and defend this Constitution. Right now, The threats to our Constitution aren't just coming from abroad but from right here at home.

Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders. You can refuse illegal orders. You must refuse illegal orders. No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution. We know this is hard and that it's a difficult time to be a public servant. But whether you're serving in the CIA, the Army, or Navy, the Air Force. Your vigilance is critical. And know that we have your back.

Because now, more than ever, The American people need you. We need you to stand up for our laws. Our Constitution and who we are as Americans. Don't give up. Don't give up. Don't give up. Don't give up the ship.

Kevin, we learned this week that the Department of Justice went to a grand jury in Washington, D.C., attempting to indict those six sitting Democratic lawmakers for that ad that we just played. The grand jury, which grand jury is often, the old saying is grand juries will indict a ham sandwich, did not indict this ham sandwich and did not believe that they broke the law. What's your reaction to these developments, Kevin? Well, first of all, it kind of is a ham sandwich in the sense, you know, a ham in the sense, the theatrical sense of the word, this performative stuff. I don't love this video for all sorts of reasons.

It is true that people don't have to and shouldn't carry out. illegal orders, but amping up the, you know, the threat is coming from within the government stuff is, I think, not the best way to go about that. That said, the notion that there's anything criminal in this, of course, is just absurd and silly. And the Trump administration's attempt to criminalize this activity is an example of exactly the sort of thing these people are talking about, which is using the power of the government in irresponsible and dangerous ways. Yeah, what else is there to really say about? I mean, there's the endless hypocrisy point that, you know, the same administration that says, you know,

if you criticize the president for Scotch taping the back of his tie to the front of his tie because he doesn't know how to tie it tied, then that's treason. And we're going to, you know, execute you for it or whatever else that is treason today is, of course, nonsensical. It's a really ugly and dangerous sort of place to be where we have to seriously entertain these questions about what do agents of the government do if they're given illegal orders. and that's not, I think, a crazy hypothetical thing. I think that's well within the realm of possibility, things we should be talking about

and thinking about and trying to deal with. Doing it in that particular way, the sort of sanctimonious don't give up the ship made for social media video stuff is, I think, irresponsible and not the best way to go about doing it. And then, of course, trying to indict these people for that is precisely the sort of stupid, vindictive,

idiotic thing that we would expect the Trump administration to do. you know, I'm really running out of stuff to say about these folks. I think maybe that's part of their strategy. I've talked to John about that. I've actually talked at Jonah about this a little bit where it's just the end of the first year and barely into the second year. And there's only so many ways to say stupid, vindictive, irresponsible, illegal,

semi-criminal, corrupt, venal. I'm going to run out of the source here in a minute, talking about these people. And by the end of the second term, which we can't be sure will be the last term, we're just going to run out of ways to talk about it, I think. Well, Jonah, on that point, people do, I think there comes a point where you get sort of numb to this. The email that I sent you all in the conversations I had about what we should talk about today, I was a little reluctant to go back to these rule of law questions. Like, yeah, we've had conversations about this stuff before.

Should we find something new to talk about? You know, I keep wanting to talk about old school policy issues, you know, should we discuss? Bless your heart. Health care. Yeah. But the reason that I chose to have us spend a few minutes on this, because this is sort of next level, right? And I think, you know, for people who comfort themselves, particularly Republican elected officials and Republican normies who, you know, are happy that the Dow is above 50,000, the stuff is not theoretical. Yes, they didn't succeed here.

Yes, you could argue that the guardrails worked. But it really is the case that the Trump administration, the Trump DOJ, tried to be. criminalize this video. I agree with Kevin. I don't have, yes, it's performative. Maybe it wasn't helpful for them to release this video. But I think everything that said in the video is indisputably true and sort of a banal observation about the role of the uniform military. And yet, you had the Trump administration actually go and try to indict these six sitting members of Congress. That is next level. This isn't theoretical. it's not just Donald Trump, you know, with his heavy breathing,

they're trying to criminalize his stuff. Yeah, so I'm with Kevin about the video. I didn't like the video. I thought it was, I find it understandable, right? Got to remember when it came out. They were hearing all sorts of stuff about blown up the boats, and there was like leaks and chatter, and I get that. But there is this sort of implicit sort of insinuation.

If I record a video, just an open video saying, you know, Donald Trump, you should know that it's wrong to sexually molest spider monkeys. Just remember that. Like, there's going, like, the assumption is that there's a reason why I am saying that, right? And so I could see a normal president would have been legitimately furious at the video.

Like, if someone did this to Obama or Bush or whatever, they would have said, come on, this is, you're hyping things up and it's outrageous. That said, there's reason to believe. that Trump wants the army to follow unlawful orders. I mean, they were saying this in their defense, these same Democrats and most of the Democratic Party, and a lot of Republicans, including people on this podcast, Andy McCarthy, were saying at the time, what Trump is doing is illegal.

So it wasn't like some sneaky hypothetical, right? I mean, this... I agree, but no, I agree with that entirely. And you got to remember going back to the Fox News debate with Brett Baer asking him about whether or not generals would follow his unlawful orders. Right. Trump insisted my generals, they'll obey, trust me, they'll obey whatever I order them to do. I think one thing to say about this that I'm probably going to revisit a couple times given the topic list today,

is that at more healthy political age, Congress would, regardless of the party affiliation of the people in that video, and regardless of the party affiliation of the people in leadership, would have lost its mind in our, outrage if a president tried to file charges against sitting members of the Senate and House for this kind of commentary. You know, there have been times in American history where I wrote about this a while ago, you know, where, like Teddy Roosevelt once suggested that the Congress was afraid to be investigated because they're also corrupt and Congress lost its, you know, blew its top over it. How dare you?

Trump posted crap saying, literally saying that these lawmakers were guilty of sedition. and then said, and sedition is punishable by death. And I'm not saying it's punishable with death. Trump says it in the post, right? He's saying basically these people deserve to be hanged. And an institution

that actually cared about itself would say, whoa, slow your role. You cannot talk to our members. You know, it's like the whole point in column I wrote was sort of like from Animal House is like, you can't say that to our pledges. Only we can say that to our pledges, right?

The idea that the White House would marchion the Justice Department to indict for sedition, in effect, these people shows you what contempt they have for Congress and what contempt Congress has for itself. Like when Sam Rayburn was a Speaker of the House, and he was this great apocryphal story where he tells a young Democrat that the Republicans aren't the enemy, they're the opposition. The enemy is the Senate. Right. Megan, should we be concerned about the fact that the Department of Justice tried to indict

these senators, or should. Should we take some comfort in the fact that the sitting grand jurors didn't buy the argument? It's not common. That does not happen very often, but it happened here. And it's happened increasingly over the first year of the Trump administration. Is this the system working as it should? I learned the stat this morning. It's less than 1%.

It's like 0.06% of the time. That they reject. The Justice Barton does not actually get any indictment. Yeah. I mean, look, I think ham sandwiches everywhere are rejoicing. that the Trump administration is making it safer for them to go before our grand jury. And I think it is good news that the system holds,

but that's kind of like saying, you know, it's good news that my airbags worked. Something has gone badly wrong by the time you have verified that your airbags were functional. And I think that's where we are. The system is not working nearly as well as it should. I have said before, I will probably say again many times he should have been impeached, removed from office,

and barred from ever running again after January 6th. That part of the system has failed. Impeachment is pretty much a dead letter at this point. No president's party will ever vote for it. I mean, I guess I can imagine circumstances where, like, you are caught in the Oval Office molesting children and even your own party deserts you, but short of that, impeachment, that constitutional safeguard

has just been falsified as a constitutional safeguard, and that's sad to learn. And let's not be so sure that sexual offenses against minors would do it either. Which I think we'll get to you in a little bit. I am not guaranteeing this. I am sad to say. But so, like, no, do I take comfort

that the grand jury refused to indict? Yes. Am I glad that we have the judicial system and the jury system as a backstop against tyranny? absolutely. I would rather not have a tyrant testing those limits. Yeah. I don't want to spend a ton of time on just this aspect of the rule of law because we have other things to get to from this week. And I want to spend just a moment looking at the sort of theatrical several hours that took place on Capitol Hill yesterday when Pam Bondi appeared before a House panel. And Democrats asked her many, many questions.

about the Epstein files, Republicans either gave her an opportunity to answer or sort of hold forth or offer praise for Donald Trump or took on the Democrats. It was, I mean, those kinds of hearings are often pretty useless. This was as useless in terms of actually producing substance or getting answers as useless a hearing as I've seen in a long time, but it probably tells us something. Pam Bonney was asked about the Epstein files. Remember, she was behind this effort last year to bring right-wing influencers to the White House, to give them these white binders where they were supposedly given all of the details about the Epstein files. In fact, what they were given was all old stuff. And that effort, that sort of moment of theater, I think, led us in part to the kind of things. that we saw yesterday. Kevin, did you watch much of the hearings? And if you watched any of the hearing,

did you learn anything from this about the Epstein Files or anything else? No, I don't like these sort of hearings very much because they're not designed to do the things that hearings are supposed to do, which is to elicit information. These kinds of hearings are the great, great example of the transformation of our politics

into pure spectacle and theater and ritual and performance. and all that stuff. If there is going to be any real investigation of this stuff, it will happen elsewhere. And I mean, yeah, do they deserve to be raked over the coals for this stuff publicly? Sure.

I'm glad to see Congress doing at least that aspect of its job. I wish, again, it feels almost quaint to say this, but every time I see something like this, I'm shocked by the sophomoricness of it, I suppose. Like, I'm used to people being, you know, kind of rude or uncooperative or whatever in these hearings or, you know, making fun of the other side are complaining that this is all political

and you know what you're talking about and all that. But the kind of school yard stuff, you're a loser lawyer. Why, you're not even a lawyer? Just, you just wonder, do they have any self-respect? I mean, obviously, they don't have any self-respect.

She wouldn't have the job if she had any self-respect. Self-respect keeps you out of that job. It's just so embarrassing. And it's embarrassing for me, just as an American, to watch this stuff, that I'm notionally at some level represented by these people. But it's got to be embarrassing for them in some way.

But then there are times when I suspect that they have some kind of condition where their ability to be embarrassed has just been removed, which would explain, you know, Ted Cruz and J.D. Vance and some of these other people, Mike Lee, especially, where there's been some sort of like some version of a lobotomy where they, where it has hit that nerve that's responsible for the sense of public shame and embarrassment and just managed to disable it. Yeah, that was my main takeaway from it, which is just I can't believe these people are. I tell you what it reminded me of when I was in, when I was in eighth grade, we did a bunch of mock trials where we would do like we put a Kaiser Wilhelm on trial for starting the war and I was

Kaiser Wilhelm and I was a very combative 13 year old Kaiser Wilhelm and I made the prosecutor cry. Very nice girl named Whitney and this is very on brand Kevin. This is so perfect. Did you have the helmet? We have the little spiky, the pickle helm? Yeah. Yes. That was back in my motorcycle writing days. I think that I probably sounded a little bit more mature and sophisticated in that argument than Pam Bondi did in front of in front of Congress. It's just, it's just absurd. Jonah, if you strip away all of the, you know, school yard epithets, the ad hominem attacks, to the extent that Pam Bobby made an argument, the argument that she made in response to the

Democratic accusations about the Epstein files was, why are you all excited about this now? You never asked Merrick Garland any of these questions. and where was all this interest in the plight of the victims when Joe Biden was president? I think there's an answer to that, but do you think she has a point? I think she has a purpose, right? I mean, that's an effective talking point. I think there are answers to it, too. But, you know, let's just be honest.

It's obvious that the Democrats are motivated at least in part by partisan opportunism here. It doesn't mean they're not actually concerned, right? but it's also true that Trump of unforced errors in politics, this has to be in the top 10 in our lifetimes, right? Guy campaigns on releasing all the Epstein files. His attorney general, like first, what week, first month in office, says I have all the Epstein files on my desk, including the client list. Then the clowns a whole bunch of their biggest podcast bro influencers by giving. them sort of like bogus dummy binders saying that they're releasing them. And it turns out all to be fake. And then Trump sort of takes it back. Like, do expect Democrats not to sort of take that bait

is preposterous, particularly when there's just so many obvious lies in a lot of this? I will say it's funny. I'm just staying on my theme for just two seconds here. This is another area. Look, I do not like Jamie Raskin. I do not like, you know, a lot of these Gerald Nadlin. right these are not my favorite people in congress i think they are partisan and duplicitous in many respects but they're doing their job it is like literally their job to do oversight of the justice department and it's compliance with the law that was passed overwhelmingly very recently and the contempt that bondy is shown that you know this is not the first time she's done this show is the kind of thing that merits impeachment and merits some outrage from republicans and

And it's also, I agree with Kevin. I don't like these hearings. I don't like these dog and pony shows. The only thing I think that makes this a little more interesting, I've talked about this before on here, but it's sort of why the Sunday shows are more interesting than they have been for a while. It's because cabinet secretaries are performing for an audience of one on TV.

And so it is more interesting in terms of like inside the beltway criminology to see how, they're not trying to persuade the public. They're not even trying to, like, persuade their own biggest fans. They are trying to prove to Donald Trump that they're fighting for him. And I hate most of the sort of academic, vulgar, Marxist stuff, you know, explanations of things. But when the Attorney General is being grilled about alleged cover-ups of pedophile, ring, sex trafficking, refuses to turn around and even face the victims

and then says, you know what we should really be talking about? Is that the Dow is over 50,000? Like, it makes you think, maybe the Marxists were right about how gross literally capitalism is. Breaking news from Jonah. The Marxists were right. Yeah, but it's, but that's what you get

when Trump, you know, in his office, is sitting there fuming saying, why isn't anybody talking about how the Dow broke 50,000? Why are we still talking about Epstein? And so she has to go out there and use this unbelievably stupid talking point to try and shame Democrats? Like, oh my gosh, can you believe the Democrats aren't talking at a judiciary hearing committee with the Attorney General

about how the Dow is over 50K? It's so grotesque. We might add, by the way, that the Attorney General also was the Attorney General of Florida during some of the time in which Epstein was doing his business. down there. It's fair. All right, we're going to take a quick break, but we'll be back soon with more from the dispatch podcast. Do you love the dispatches journalism, but don't have time to read it all? We hear this pretty frequently from our members, which is why I'm very excited to introduce Dispatch Voiced, a member's only podcast feed that helps you keep up with our work on your schedule.

Here's how it works. We've built two feeds, editors picks for our biggest stories, and the morning dispatch for our daily newsletter, powered by realistic AI voice models created by 11 labs. These high-quality audio versions are delivered right to your favorite podcast player. Whether you're commuting at the gym, out grocery shopping, even walking the dog, dispatch voice fits our reporting into your schedule. Jonah Goldberg's latest column? The biggest news from Capitol Hill? Our most colorful cultural analysis?

Now it's all available in your podcast feed. ready when you are. Most episodes use advanced AI narration that sounds remarkably like a professional audiobook reader and will occasionally feature authors reading their own work too. Ready to take the dispatch on the go, members can set up their feed on their account page at the dispatch.com. Not a member yet? Start listening today when you join the dispatch. We're back. You're listening to the dispatch podcast? Let's jump in. Megan, I think that's the only way really to understand what we saw yesterday for Pam Bondi. And we see, as Joan points out, we see this on the Sunday shows, we see this in these hearings. We see this in the cabinet meetings when they're sitting across

the table from him. They go out of their way with sort of North Korean level praise for dear leader. And in Pam Bondi's case, she has been the subject of widespread speculation over the past couple months that she's sort of on the outs, that Trump has been frustrated with her, disappointed with her. I think that speculation was accurate. I think it was true that she was on the outs. And it seems to me that she came into this hearing looking for a way to shore up her position internally more than do anything else. And it's almost, I think, you know, we watch this and we get frustrated with the performance. We get frustrated with the theatrics. Certainly the Democrats were frustrated. The Republicans were sort of amused, I think, at the theater. But from her perspective,

this feels like a success. She got to make the point. You know Trump was watching her, at least we'll see the clips. And she probably did shore up her standing in the Trump administration and make her job a little safer. Isn't that right? I think that's right. I mean, look, to be maximally fair, many government officials who are testifying in front of Congress are far more concerned with shoring up their internal position, protecting.

their turf, et cetera, than they are with helping improve the administration of the government. But here's the thing. It's pathetic what shores up your position in this administration, right? Like, you know, I, when I use chat GPT, I have been trying to train my GPT to not be so fondingly obsequious because I don't like it. It's off-putting. And I am trying to put myself in the head of someone who enjoys having obviously insincere and over the top praise, like showered upon him from his minions at all times? Like, what centers in the brain is that tickling? Does he believe that they mean it?

Or is it just that, you know, when you are an authoritarian, when you are keeping power solely through your power of bullying and intimidation? Is it that, you know, you need that signal all the time? It's like, why did Saddam Hussein win elections by like 98.99 100%, right? Like, why not keep it believable? 75%.

Right? No, it has to be that high because they feel all the time that their situation is so precarious. that if there is any signal of dissent whatsoever, that might be the thing that starts the snowball rolling. And that's what this feels like to me. And I mean, it's shameful.

It is pathetic. It is beyond disturbing that this is the leadership of the United States government. But that's where we are. Particularly the Justice Department, right? I mean, if this is going on with commerce, okay, commerce is always occupied, almost all right? going on a commerce and we're going to get to that. Thank you, Jonah, for that terrific segue. Forshadowing. Right, exactly. We usually expect Commerce Secretaries to be kind of party hacks, right?

You don't expect the Attorney General to be the same level of kind of like, oh, you gave a lot of money to the Super PAC. Let's make you Commerce Secretary, right? Right. And commerce, if we were making lists of cabinet agencies that could go, commerce would be among the first. So there's a question as to whether that really serves much of a purpose at all. Let's move to commerce because I want to spend just a moment, I want to talk about the economy and tariffs, but I want to spend just a moment before we do on a story that the New York Times broke middle of this week. And this is one of these stories that you read it, and it's, you know, we've had this discussion here. I used to talk about it with Charles Crouthammer all the time. There's got to be a word for shocking but not surprising. This is one of those

shocking but not surprising stories where the Times reports that a Detroit billionaire had a conversation with Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary, shortly before Donald Trump went public and said he was going to block the opening of a new bridge that connects Canada and Detroit. And the reporting suggests that this was done at the behest of this big donor. Here's the lead. The billionaire owner of a bridge connecting Michigan with Canada, met Howard Lutnik, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce on Monday, hours before Trump lambasted a competing span in the latest flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and Canada. The story goes on to report that Lutnik talked to Trump about the matter, and Trump then went public with this. We get these kinds of stories about

Howard Lutnik quite a bit. It's really not much pretense that this kind of back and forth quid pro quo, I would call it corruption, is taking place. Lutnik was also caught lying about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Lutnik had sort of famously said that he met Epstein, I believe he put it in 2005, and he was so disgusted being in Epstein's presence that he would never meet with him against. He left the meeting, that meeting and knew Epstein was a bad guy, I would never, ever have a relationship or meet with him again. And it turns out that Lutnik not only had met with him and continued this relationship and was emailing him about business and art shows and, you know, real estate matters,

but also visited Epstein on his island and forgot that, didn't mention that. He went and had lunch there. The question I think is, you know, Donald Trump is famously reluctant to frustrate anyone because he doesn't want to give the media a news cycle. He doesn't want to do anything that will make Democrats happy. But Howard Lutnik has caused the president, whether it's news stories like this, whether it's the Epstein stuff, some PR trouble.

Is there any chance, Megan, that he's shown the door? Or is this something that Trump just tolerates because of Lutwick's obsequiousness in other areas? That's a really good question. I'm not sure I know the answer. Let me lay out the parameters. I mean, look, during the first Trump administration, he was reasonably willing to fire people who embarrassed him.

But it was always true that he was selecting more on loyalty than on, say, competence. And in this administration, that latter effect has ratcheted up and he has left people who are manifestly bad at their jobs in position because they're obsequiously loyal to him. Christy Noem is a good example of someone who completely botched. I don't think the federal government should have gone into Minneapolis in the first place, but if you're going to do that, do not put Christy Noem in charge.

And she's still hanging around. You know, in another administration, she would have resigned because she was causing the administration problems. Even, like, forget doing terrible things and attacking the Constitution. at its roots, she was causing political problems for Trump. But she's still there because, as we were talking about, because she displays the, like, primate symbols of submission in adequate volumes for Trump to keep her around.

And I think this is kind of the same sort of thing. Kevin, is there anyone that we might expect will go in the next three months, six months, based on what you're seeing from the administration today? I'd be surprised if anyone of any significance left other than on his or her own volition. I mean, somebody may at some point decide, hey, I'm going to have a, I want to have a career after this, and this administration's getting so embarrassing that it's going to hurt me in my attempts to do that. But no, I think he's selected for, you know, abject sycophancy thoroughly enough on the front end that he's not going to have to police it very much on the back end.

It's not like one of these people's going to suddenly discover some self-respect and start acting in that way. The Lutnik thing, and the bridge especially reminded me that how little things change in politics because what really made me think of was Chester Arthur and back when he was at the port collector in New York, which was like the great patronage job you wanted to have because basically all the trade in the country or like, you know, some enormous share of it,

like 70% of the imports in the United States and exports went through the port of New York. And so that was the great place to have, you know, the position because you got payoffs from everybody and it was a great patronage place. And so I was reading the volume of trade going across the bridge into Canada is like $300 million a day or something like that, some huge, huge chunk of money.

So, of course, someone's going to be very defensive about protecting that monopoly on that bridge there. And it's just a very familiar kind of political situation that just never really goes away when you've got these choke points and you've got economic interests attached to them. Those are going to quickly become political interests and political powers pretty quickly. The other thing that made me think of is that New York rich guy is a very small world in a lot of ways. and that kind of New York Palm Beach sort of access is a very, very small world. You know, one of the reasons that Rush Limbaugh was so quick to become a Donald Trump guy wasn't that they knew each other because, you know, Rush wasn't the go out and be a playboy

in New York kind of guy. He was kind of a homebody, but they had adjacent private jet parking. So their terminals were next to one another. So they kind of knew each other that way. And it's just a very, very small world. These people know each other. And it's hard to avoid people like that in that world. You know, you really have to kind of go out of your way in some ways.

way that a guy like Lutnik isn't really going to do, I don't think, to really cut yourself off from someone like that. I was reminded up a little bit. Someone posted something on our internal Slack the other day about do you know anyone who works in a DC comms firm. And like every one of his head, like, oh, I have a brother-in-law, this guy I went to high school with, or this friend or this person I used to work with it to this other place. And it's like, yeah. And to think people think that Washington is a swamp made up of people who have interlaping, you know, personal family and economic and professional interests that all end up being, you know, one big mess. But kind of New York, Palm Beach, Richgarer world is even more, you know, small and incestuous.

And the incentives are very strong there to stay in the good graces of that circle. So it doesn't really surprise me that much. And that he would lie about it is just kind of natural. These people just sort of lie for practice. I mean, they'll often lie when there's not even a good reason to. It's just like they want to just like keep up their lying muscles. You know, it's just exercise for them. They're going to the liar's gym.

Never skip lie day. Never skip lie day. I want to know, though, why Jonah portrays spider monkeys is what I want to go back. Like, they're howler monkeys. There are all sorts of spiders. Buter monkey is just inherently funny. Jonah, what Megan said there about lie day, that's a joke. That's like an exercise joke.

Like, people skip leg day. If you're not familiar with gym culture, you know. I figured out from context. That's good. That's good. So I want to use the remaining time to talk about tariffs in the economy and some votes that took place in the hospital. representatives this week, there was in the middle of the week a resolution that would have in effect expressed disapproval of Donald Trump's tariffs. Three Republicans voted with Democrats to...

Was it three or six? I thought it was six. I think it was six. Well, it was six on the second vote, three on the first vote. So what happened was there was a procedural measure that failed with 217 opposed, 214 in favor, including three Republicans. voting against the measures. So they were part of the 217. And then there was a subsequent vote on approval or disapproval of Trump's tariffs with respect to Canada that garnered six Republican votes. This opens the door to a series of these kinds of procedural votes in which Republicans will be put on the record either favoring or opposing Donald Trump's tariff regime. It's very clear some reporting I've done, lots of conversations, common sense, many, many more than six Republicans

opposed Donald Trump's tariffs, but we got six Republicans to vote. Jonah, do you expect, we're going to have more of these votes. This is an opportunity for those Republicans to say, hey, we aren't on board with all of these tariffs. Do you expect that number to grow as it becomes clearer to those Republicans voting that that that's what this is, that they will then have a series of votes on their record in favor of Donald Trump's tariffs as they head to midterms where the economy is likely to be a major or the major issue. Does that factor here, or are they just going to go along because they're going to go along? I sort of refer back to my standard answer about all the various versions of this question

that we've had and they're going to have in the future. Watch the filing deadlines for primaries. and the more people get past the deadline, and so that Trump cannot cost them the nomination, the more courage some of these people will find. I don't think it's going to be a huge number, but it'll be more. You know, there'll be more swing voters, like those 18 Republicans up in sort of Biden seats

or whatever the number is, Biden districts, they're already sort of chomping at the bit, trying to find ways to distance themselves at the margins from Trump. not to say that they're anti-Trump, but just so that they have something to say at a town hall that makes it sound like they are a little independent on some of these things. And again, I'm just going to keep playing my institutionalist

Congress sucks card here. One of the reasons why it is so difficult for members of Congress to show any independence is that legislation is almost all crafted in the Speaker's office and crammed down their necks at the last. last minute, because it doesn't go through regular order, it doesn't go through committee, and then you get to run these ads against members of Congress saying, so-and-so voted 100% of the time with Nancy Pelosi. Yeah, because they only had X number of chances to vote at all,

and they were told that this was a party loyalty test, and so they all vote with Nancy Pelosi because Nancy Pelosi is actually the legislator-in-chief, and the same thing with Mike Johnson, is they so-and-so voted 100 times with Trump. They don't even say. name Mike Johnson because Trump's the guy in power. And it makes it impossible to show any kind of independence unless you're willing to go full Massey and earn the wrath and wear it as a badge of honor of Trump. And Thomas Massey, who Joan is referring to representative from Kentucky, seems to almost relish now. I mean, he's a famously libertarian, not a go-along to get-along guy on any of these things. He's pushed the administration on the Epstein files.

He's pushed them on tariffs. He's somebody who I think actually believes stuff, which distinguishes him from a lot of Republicans, or at least he believes stuff, and he's willing to stand up for it. So to Jonah's point, Megan, Donald Trump, President tweeted last night or truth posted on social media. There you go. Any Republican in the House or Senate that votes against tariffs will seriously suffer the consequences come election time. And that includes primaries. our trade deficit has been reduced by 78%.

The Dow Jones has just hit 50,000. The S&P, 7,000, all numbers that were considered impossible, all caps, one year ago. The political dynamics here, he seems pretty likely to keep them on board by making these threats and making them explicit in a political season that's dominated by primaries. For a bit. But I actually think as his popularity numbers decline, he's going to lose some people. Look, partisanship means that you don't lose as many people in your own party as you used to. But he is going to lose some people in his own party who are sick of the inflation, who are upset about what tariffs have done to their company or something else.

They will peel off slowly. This is what you see with unpopular presidents is that as things get worse, and inflation is just a situation where things keep getting worse. the job market's okay, but it feels quite frozen where people, they're not leaving their jobs and companies aren't firing people, but people are not leaving their jobs and they're not hiring either.

And that's just, it just doesn't feel good. If you look at the polling on how people feel about the economy, about the country, about, you know, right track, round track, none of it is good, and it is leaking into Donald Trump's approval ratings. And I think the more that slips, and the closer he gets to leaving office.

I mean, I think you saw some of this dynamic with Biden where, like, why did they eventually organize to defenestrate him at the moment when it became clear that he was not merely not going to win the presidency, but was simply not going to be a force in American politics anymore. And was going to cost them. And was going to cost them. More than he could possibly help them. Right.

And Donald Trump is also almost 80. And he is not going to be a force in American politics forever. and he is an increasingly costly ornament to have a round. And I think that that is going to change decision-making in a way that, like, look, we've seen this before, so I don't want to predict this is going to happen next week. I'd like it to happen next week, but I don't think it will. That people would be like, oh, he's finished, and they would rally.

But he is heading for the finish line. I'm not even disputing that he might try to somehow undermine the 2028 election. but I don't think he will succeed to go back to what I said about the grand juries and so forth. I do think that our institutions are still strong enough to hold against that, which means if you are a Republican, what is the benefit in two years of sucking up to this man who is shortly going to leave the scene? I mean, sure, he can sit in Mara Lago at the age of 82 and try to organize a primary challenge against you. but when he is no longer a live possibility,

that's going to be considerably less risky. He didn't actually have great success with primary challenges against people that he targeted. He does not have a lot of coattails. He really is, and I think in a way that the Republicans underestimate, he's just sui generis. The Trump charm or, you know, evil or whatever you want to call it, it just does not the evil leeches. But the, you know, whatever magnetism he has, unlike someone

like Obama, it just doesn't help his party except when he's on the ballot. And I guess I should say Obama had a lot of big midterm losses because they swung big and they made Congress take a bunch of votes that then cost a lot of the moderate seats. And also the way he ended up organizing the party was very centered around Obama. You know, he's creating parallel. organizations that he controls and ultimately presided over, like, huge down-ticket losses for his own party, in part because he was pushing them to the left. And so I think that that is going to be, but he left office a lot more popular than Trump is going to leave office. And I think that you just have to do that calculation. And hey, guys, you know, now is the best time to start.

Yeah. Should have done it four years ago, but like. Yeah, five years ago was the best time to start. Now is the second best. and now is the second best. I should also just add on that, but, you know, three different polling agencies, including Rasmussen, which, you know, how I always say, you know, when Wibby Goldberg's name comes up

or Jeffrey Goldberg's name comes up, no relation. Rasmussen actually has no relation to Scott Rasmussen anymore, but it is a wildly pro-Maga polling outfit that does stupid trolling stuff on Twitter and all this kind of thing. Ugov was another one, and I can't remember it was a Reuters ipsoz. But anyway, three polling.

firms find that more Americans think Joe Biden was a better president than Donald Trump. And you just have to think about like, first of all, how unpopular do you have to be to get that finding, but also how much that must infuriate Trump. I mean, I can think of no poll finding out there that would annoy them more. Time for a break. We'll be back shortly. We know that life's greatest moments are built on a foundation of good health, from the big milestones to the quiet winds. That's why our annual health assessment offers a physician-led, full-body checkup that provides a clear picture of your health today

and may uncover early signs of conditions like heart disease and cancer. The healthier you means more moments to cherish. Take control of your well-being and book an assessment today. Medcan. Live well for life. Visit medcan.com slash moments to get started. And we're back. You're listening to the Dispatch podcast. Let's jump right in. Kevin, let me get focused on something that Megan mentioned almost in passing, but I think is a really important point. She talked about the jobs market and people feeling like they're stuck. Not a lot of mobility is not a lot of opportunity to leave a job, to get a new job, to improve your situation for upward mobility. And I think we could say the same thing is true about the housing market. People feel like they can't move in this housing market. rates are too high for them to sell a house. Some people are locked into really good interest rates, two and a half percent from a few years earlier and making the change to something else, even if

they wanted a downside, is prohibitive given where the housing market is. I think it stuck is a pretty good way to describe the current state of the U.S. economy overall. Having said that, the job numbers for January for Donald Trump were good. They beat expectations by more than double. And if you're looking, if you just isolate, and most of those jobs came in the health care sector, there's probably something to be said about that, but if you're just looking at January, you isolate January, think, okay, things are headed in the right direction. However, and this is a point where the however probably matters more than what preceded it, the downward revisions in the job numbers for the past two years, but in particular as it relates to our politics and the midterms, the last year,

revising downward the number of jobs added by a million suggests that that first year left us something short of the golden age that Donald Trump thinks that we're in. Is he to be able to sell the argument that we're in this golden age? He's right when he points to, and when Pambani points to the Dow being above 50,000. That's a big deal. Is that going to matter more than this sort of pervasive sense that we're saying? stuck, that things aren't moving, that people can't move jobs, move houses? Yeah, well, a couple of things that we should probably mention is that in a lot of these cases, we're talking about very

small numbers, or relative to the size of the U.S. economy. So when there's a downward revision of 50,000 jobs in a jobs report or 100,000 jobs in a jobs report, in a country of 340 million people and 100-odd million households and however many workers, these are pretty small numbers, So even a million downward revision jobs in the course of the U.S. economy over the course of a year is not a huge number. And for all the time we spent talking about tariffs and all that stuff, in 2025, total tariff revenue came out to something like 6 tenths of percent of GDP. That's a lot of talk over a pretty, pretty small number. Now, it'll probably end up being a little bit bigger next time around. I should also just put up a fine point on it.

is tariffs as being implemented are regressive. The regressive taxes on lower income Americans. Like tariffs affect people who shop at Costco and Walmart and Target more than they affect people in ways that are felt by the consumer who shop at Tiffany's. I'm not sure those things are mutually exclusive, Jonah. It's very hard to get good groceries at Tiffany's. Fair.

My point is, but there are a lot of people who shop. for groceries at Whole Foods or whatever, and they're used to being upcharged on all that kind of stuff. And the tariffs are taking in a lot of money, but it's not coming. You know, they're always, it's amazing how many studies have been coming out lately, ratifying what everybody on this podcast and everybody who's read about this stuff since Henry George or Hazlitt or whoever has known is that the vast, fast 90% and upwards of the tariffs are being paid by Americans in one form or another.

And but Peter Navarro says that they're being paid by foreign countries, Jonah. Yeah, but Peter Navarro is a liar. And I think you are excluding the possibility that he's crazy. And I don't think that's quite fair, Jonah. Fair, fair. You know, as someone who's been trying for years to write fictional parody of American politics, Peter Navarro is a character you just couldn't make up. Yeah.

He is just such. No, you would be drummed right out of the realistic fiction writer's workshop. Yeah. He is such an outlandish crackpot. It's just hilarious. There are a few of those. I will just add as we wrap up this uplifting discussion of the U.S. economy, and its current state that the Congressional Budget Office projected yesterday

that debt will reach $64 trillion in 10 years up from the $38 trillion. We hold right now, and a reminder that neither political party is offering any real reform agenda on the entitlements that are driving that debt. Finally, for not worth your time, Jonah, I assume that Tiffany's was on your mind because you have been shopping for Fair Jessica in advance of Valentine's Day. If she listens to this,

we're going to post this Friday the 13th, if she listens to this the day before Valentine's Day, will Jessica learn that she is going to be getting something extravagant and beautiful from Tiffany's. And more broadly, are you a believer in Valentine's Day? When you do the romantic stuff associated with Valentine's Day? Okay, so first of all, my wife left town yesterday. So I'm off the hook.

And so I don't like Valentine's Day. I think it's kind of a bogus thing. It's part of the great greeting card mafia kind of stuff. But in the past, I've been pretty good about it. honoring it because it's just the risk reward of saying if you say it's a bogus holiday it wins you nothing so you do the minimum or more and so I'm always a flowers and chocolates guy when she's in town when you say the minimum is that what you mean flowers and chocolates yeah something like that flowers and or chocolates or you know something you know some some gesture that shows how near and dear

You know, your loved ones are. But I have told my daughter, whose birthday was yesterday, February 11th, that the test for any potential suitor going forward is whether or not they try to get away with combining Valentine's Day and birthday. And that's a real test. And if they, oh, I just thought I'd do it all at one. And he's like, no, not good enough for my daughter. It's got to be two completely separate things. And I'm letting the world know that we're paying attention right now. I thought you were going to say like Valentine's Day and President's Day and I was picturing like the Washington, George Washington commemorative coin.

I can get behind that. That would be awesome. Megan, do you? What are your expectations, Megan? What's the least to follow Jonah's lead? What would be the least? What does that look like? for you.

What's the bare minimum for Peter? Well, so we, I expect Valentine's Day to be celebrated, but my husband and my husband knows that, but he also knows that I am cheap and that I do not appreciate extravagant romantic gestures made with our joint money.

Which is not to say that like a thoughtful, a thoughtfully extravagant gesture is one thing, but that he knows better than to bring me roses on Valentine's Day. because the price of roses goes up significantly before Valentine's Day.

So some other flower. Yeah, but if you can still get him at Costco for like, it's like 20 bucks for two dozen. Just saying it. Would you prefer like some sort of mushroom log because it lasts a long time? No. I just don't like overpaying for flowers.

I do like roses. He gets me roses other times of the year. He actually like, every time I travel, Peter goes and gets some flowers. so they're there when I come home because I really like it. I am girly in that way. I like chocolate.

On Hayek's birthday, he brings you flowers. Good on him. I also really don't like going out to dinner on Valentine's Day because it's always such a scene and again, the prices go up. It's usually these weird, or often these weird fixed price menus. And so we dine at home for Valentine's Day and do a dinner some other weekend.

Do you make him oxtails? I'm not making him oxtails. and Steve, I owe you an email because we're going to do oxtails. I've got, sorry. Everything in my life right now is like just in time production. I'm dropping balls left and right. But it is top of mind and you will get an email today. So we're going to do dinner at home.

I might make some sort of like lovely little chocolate dessert and he will oblige me by not bringing me roses. And that is, you know, it's the gift of the magi right there. It's pretty good. Kevin, are you a hopeless romantic? You know, there's this whole kind of like sitcom dad convention where when anyone brings up your wife, you're supposed to say, you know, I really just married outside of my, kicked out of my league, you know, that sort of thing. But I have this experience. I don't have to do that because I have friends like you all who do that on my behalf.

And we hold seminars as how did Kevin pull that up? Every one of you has had this experience that people, when people first meet my wife, they go, hmm. How did that happen? And because it ain't looks and it ain't charm. We all know that. So I make a little effort on this stuff. Here's my favorite Kevin being a good husband's story. My wife tells the story sometimes.

So we were still living in Dallas at the time, and we are fancy whole food shoppers, right? And I was going to Whole Foods to buy some groceries. And my wife said that it was tulips season, right? Tulips were coming in. And could I buy some tulips because she likes tulips? I said, fine, but I need instructions. You know, are there particularly kinds of tulips? Are there different colors of tulips?

Which tulips do you want? How many tulips should I buy? Oh, man. How many times have I had similar conversations in my house? And she just jokingly says, just buy all the tulips. And I went to Whole Food and I bought all the tulips. I bought just buckets and buckets and buckets of tulips. And I don't know how many buckets of tulips there were.

It was a lot. We had a house full of tulips. And she was very happy about that. And it was kind of absurd. they were sort of all over the place, but we had a lot of tulips. But on a similar story, in a much less romantic way, we needed toilet paper and paper towels. And she said, just get enough that I don't have to think about it for a while. And I bought so much of this stuff that the supply I bought lasted.

I want to say two years that we didn't have to go back and buy either one of those items. And I think that actually made a better impression than the tulips did. So, yeah, I... That is true romance. I buy my wife flowers. I've seen an average of more than once a month, typically. Wow. So Valentine's Day itself, I won't do very much for it because it's sort of a New Year's Eve kind of thing where you're playing against the expectations. Plus, we don't really go out to dinner very much.

We have a whole bunch of little kids, and we live in a pretty small town where there's like two restaurants. And they're both fine. No complaints about the restaurants here. But it's not really something that's on our agenda so much. Where I really get credit is like if there's some small. small, like, particular man thing that needs to be done, and I actually go out and take the time to do it. Like, we had some trees that needed some attention, and I got the chainsaw out, and I was chainsaw in trees and stuff. And you would have thought that I was just John Wayne from having, you know, from having this thing.

I think there's no woman who does not thrill to the sight of her guy with a chainsaw. It's just, you know, it's primal. Although I am such a sissy about some things, I don't like loud noises. I just really don't. I hate leaf blowers and things like that. So I like loud music. I listen to Slayer, but I don't like loud noises. So I have an electric chainsaw.

And I have the Tesla of chainsaws, and it doesn't make all that much noise, and it's okay. And going out and chainsaw in some trees in a sort of peaceful way on an early winter afternoon where we live in the mountains is, It's not a bad way to spend a few hours. Happy Valentine's. The trees are trimmed. The trash is taken out and the oil's been changed in the minivan. I mean, that's good. That's good.

I mean, it's the sort of the basics. So there's no big gesture. There's no effort to get further in her good graces than doing a little more of maybe what you do all the time. Yeah, I'll make a big gesture every now and then. Like, I'll buy her an extravagant gift from time to time. But I don't do it typically on Valentine's Day or Christmas or her birthday. I just sort of do it in a genuine true surprise.

And that seems to work out pretty well. That's good. Yeah, I'm not, I've never been a flowers guy. I'm way too practical. And I would make this argument to girlfriends past where I would say, but they're just going to die in a few days, maybe a week or two. My feelings for you will last much longer than these flowers. Why would I do that?

You know. You didn't actually try that line, did you? Oh, yeah, it worked like a charm. the discovery of the $20, I think it's $22 for two dozen roses at Costco, that's a flower purchase I can get behind. Yeah, I'm not, I don't do much on Valentine's Day. I think a nice card is nice, but we don't do the extravagant gifts. I'm not doing Tiffany's like Jonah does or flowers and chocolates.

She's not coming home to rose petals, a path of rose petals leading her to the, The bedroom with the 89 candles arrayed in different areas. No? I mean, if I try that. If I try it would actually be funny to try that just to, and then like to film her reaction because I think she would be so perplexed or like, what is this? Who is this for? What have you done with my husband?

Yeah, I know Peter will never do that because he's not. neater than I am. And the idea for him of deliberately putting something on our floors would never fly. You would not be able to handle it. He would be like starting to pick it up as I walked in the door. I love it. Well, to all of you who do celebrate happy Valentine's Day, we hope it's a memorable one, if there are such memorable Valentine's Day. And we'll talk to you next week. If you like what we're doing here, there are a few easy ways to support us. You can rate, review, and subscribe to the show on your podcast player of choice to help new listeners find us. And as always, if you've got questions, comments, concerns, or corrections, you can email us

at roundtable at the dispatch.com. We read everything, even the ones from folks who go over the top to celebrate Valentine's Day. And I should make mention of the fact that some of your emails have gotten caught in our spam filters. We've addressed the problem, we think we've fixed it, so know that every email you send us will be read. That's going to do it for today's show. Thanks so much for tuning in, and a big thank you to the folks behind the scenes

who made this episode possible, Noah Hickey and Peter Vonaventure. Thanks again for listening. Please join us next time.