The Dispatch Podcast - The Far Left vs. Biden | Interview: David Axelrod

Episode Date: January 22, 2024

Democratic strategist David Axelrod joins Jamie to discuss Donald Trump’s seemingly secured GOP victory and what Biden’s strategy should be moving forward. The Agenda: -DeSantis’ future -Waiting on New Hampshire -Biden alternatives -Activist base voting for “Genocide Joe” -Axelrod on natural politicians Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the Dispatch podcast. I'm Jamie Weinstein. My guest today is David Axelrod. Of course, he is most famous for being the chief campaign strategist to Barack Obama's two winning presidential campaigns. He also served the senior advisor in the Obama administration. He is now, or recently was, the founding director of the University of Chicago Institute for Politics, where he now serves as senior fellow. He is also a CNN analyst and host of the excellent podcast, The Axe Files. We get into all the topics if you imagine we would in this episode on the 2024 race, but also get into a lot of other interesting topics that I think you will find as fascinating as I did. So without further ado, I give you Mr. David Axelot. David Ochtarad, welcome to the Dispatch podcast. Very good to be with you. I want to start with the idea after Iowa. You're a strategist for Nikki Haley.

What would you advise her as she tries to kind of pull off what many think is an impossible task and upset Donald Trump, who was at this point the overwhelming frontrunner going in the race, but maybe not going into New Hampshire. It seems closer there. Yeah, I mean, honestly, some things are not, are not solvable. And one of the problems that she has is that one of the most important cohorts in Republican primaries are Republicans.

You know, Donald Trump has a very, very strong lock on them. So she's relying on independence and maybe Democrats who have re-registered last fall to carry the, day for her. And that's, that's very, very hard. I mean, she needs to push the independent participation into the primaries up to an almost unimaginable level. But, you know, the one thing that occurred to me was that the thing that she said a few weeks ago that got her in trouble in Iowa, that New Hampshire corrects Iowa, would have been a more appropriate thing to start saying the day after the Iowa caucuses. And the honest to God message here is New Hampshire has the capacity to keep the race going or to end it. You know, I think New Hampshire voters,

now I may be, I may be influenced by my own experience there in 2008 when Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses. We went into New Hampshire and we arrived like a conference. army ready to negotiate the terms of surrender. And that haughtiness, I think, was noticed. And Hillary Clinton campaign closed the ground. And she narrowly won because people didn't want to end the race. The question here is whether people actually do want the race to go on. But I'd kind of put, I'd kind of call the question if I were her. I think it's, if she gets wanted in New Hampshire, I honestly question what the point is or the wisdom of is of going on to South Carolina. So this is the ballgame and she ought to tell them that.

There's been a lot of criticism of the Republican candidates, Ron DeSantis and Nicky Haley especially, that it's only now they're criticizing Trump. But if you had the money that Jeff Roe had, and they gave it to you two years ago and they said David Axelot, divide, you know, come up with a strategy that would stop Donald Trump. for being the Republican nominee, what would you advise? Is there a strategy that would have worked? I'm not sure there is, but because I think there were events that intervened that just strengthened Trump and the four indictments were a part of that. But I think that the candidate who DeSantis was at the end of the race was probably a much stronger candidate than the candidate

he was for the first eight months of the race, or seven months of the race. You know, I always thought it was a, unless it's a long-term play that extends years and not months, the idea that he was going to outflank Donald Trump on the right or with social conservatives, I think was a fallacy in the first place. But I think that running as a kind of center-right, successful, conservative governor had maybe more promise than doing that. But I think that I I mean, I'm like, I mean, I'm sure there are people smarter than me, but I don't know. We saw Chris Christie go straight at Trump, I think valiantly, to be honest with you. And his reward was an early exit.

You know, Asa Hutchinson was courageous and speaking out about Trump and didn't get a point in Iowa. At some point, you have to say, you know what, this is Donald Trump's party right now. And he was going to be very hard to beat under any circumstance. Now, I will say this, the strength that he displays among Republicans is helpful in dominating these primaries. The weakness that he shows elsewhere should be concerning to Republicans. And that will become more of a factor perhaps as early as the day after the New Hampshire primary when people begin to focus on what the final choice is.

If you were Joe Biden or his campaign manager right now, who would you prefer to run a general election against Donald Trump or Nikki Haley? First of all, that's a high, that's a kind of academic question because it's like, I think that that issue is pretty much settled and will be finally settled very shortly. But, you know, I think that as you listen to what he's said, what his people have said, and so on, I think that they anticipated a race with Trump and they believe they can beat Donald Trump. You know, maybe they could have beaten Haley as well. She's not 17 points ahead.

She touted one poll for a long time. But she's a few points ahead of Biden. But what she also has shown skilled and talented as she is is that she's got some flaws in her presentation that would have been at least a target. You know, she's a bit of a shape shifter and that has hurt her in these primaries. But I'm certain that they would prefer to run against Trump and they're going to get that chance. When you mentioned in November to some controversy on your own side that president, Biden should think long and hard about running again. There were some poll numbers at the time that you were responding to. What Democratic candidates do you think would have been stronger or

potentially stronger in a general election? You know, I don't know the answer to that question. I mean, there are some very talented people out there. A number of the governors clearly would have been interested in running. There are people in the Senate who would have been interested in people in the cabinet. But the reality is that you don't know until you see people in a presidential race. I don't think people appreciate just how much of a gauntlet that is and how much of a test that is. And that's how you find out. Listen, Ron DeSantis was like on a glide path, it seemed, the day after he won re-election in 2022. And he was exposed by the campaign. As I said, I think he probably grew by the end, but he was not a good candidate for a very long time. It hurt him.

And so Democrats needed a campaign. You know, I kind of knew when I said what I said in November. I mean, I meant it earnestly. I thought he should think about it. I was pretty sure when he did, he would continue to run. And at that point, you know, the question is, how would Democrats find out who the strongest candidate is without a campaign. So it kind of left the party in a lurch, even if, you know, sometime later he decided to drop. So I don't know. The answer is I don't know.

I mean, Governor Whitmer is very impressive. I know my own governor has a following, Governor Pritzker, impressive. Governor Shapiro is impressive, though new, but impressive. you know, obviously Governor Newsom was keyed up to run. So a lot of the governors would have run. And I think some of the candidates we saw before, and perhaps some people in the Senate who haven't run before

would have looked at it. And there are some talents there. And, of course, the vice president would have run. So it would have been interesting, but it's a hypothetical, it's not even a hypothetical. It's an academic question. It's done. Would it have been possible if he cut out for the,

for the Democratic Party to skip over the vice president and not nominate the first African-American vice president in U.S. history? Look, I think that that that would have been, you know, a point that she would have made. But I think that there would have been a competitive primary. I think people would have paid her deference, but not skip the primary. I mean, they would have acknowledged that, but called for an open primary, and there would have been an open primary. Yeah. So the answer to your question is, yes. I don't think it would have been a fait accompli that the vice president would then be the candidate. We had Mudcat Sanders on last week. And that must have been fun.

Always fun talking to Mudcat. And he knows well, Chris Lasavita, the advisor to the Trump campaign. And his view is that he thinks that Chris is going to run a campaign against Kamala Harris as opposed to Joe Biden. Do you think that is. an effective strategy. Well, look, I mean, I expect that the Republicans will do that because, you know, the fundamental, they're not, I mean, the fundamental argument against the president is about age. I mean, that's really what they're working. You know, that raises the question about what if something happens to him and lead you to the vice president.

And her numbers are certainly no better than his numbers right now. and I think they think that she would be a target, you know, a ripe target. I, you know, I think for that reason, attention has to be paid to how she's used in the campaign, and she needs to be put in a position to kind of lift her standing. I think that project should have begun probably on January 20th of 2020 because it was clear that if the president ran, this would be a question. And if he didn't run, that she would be a prime candidate. So I expect that. I think Muttats right that that will be part of the campaign for sure.

And I'm not sure, you know, Las Avita is very good as he's proven in Iowa. I mean, they ran a really smart campaign. They're running a smart campaign now, but you don't have to be a political genius to arrive at that conclusion. Speaking of the vulnerability that you see in President Biden and the campaign they're going to run, you're much closer to that world than I am, even if maybe President Biden, as at times been upset with you recently. Do you believe he is as mentally fit as he was when he was vice president serving under Barack Obama? Yeah, listen, I think that his problems are performative in front of a camera, you know, I think he's been a very, a more than competent president, and he has some major accomplishments to his credit, but the problem he has is just in front of a camera. He looks old, and that's what people see. They don't see him in meetings. They don't see him in the decision-making process. But, you know, that's the reality of politics. So, but do I think that he is, is mentally fit. Yes, I do. Do I think he's competent? Yes, I do. And, you know, honestly,

you could swing the question around and ask about Trump as well in different ways, perhaps. Trump is, appears more energetic. And I listen to some of the things he says, and it's like, wow, this is otherworldly. So, you know, that raises those questions. Let me ask you a question about the activist base in the Democratic Party. Obviously, there's a problem with the Republican Party about to nominate Donald Trump. My question is, are you concerned at all, A, just on the fact of what the activist base is pushing for, and B, if you were a strategist for Joe Biden, if there's parts of the base calling him genocide Joe for his reelection campaign, I just love your thoughts on that. Listen, the nature of the presidency is that you have to make decisions. You can't opt out of making decisions when situations arise.

And whenever you make decisions, there is going to be, you make someone unhappy. Clearly, he has done that. And there are elements of the base that are disillusioned. I think for that reason, the fact that the Republican primary is likely to end so early is advantageous because now it's a choice and people need to focus on that choice and those who are unhappy with the president's policies need to ask themselves what what do they think the policies would have been had Donald Trump been in place that's the choice now he's going to have to find a way to motivate people they may come to a reluctant conclusion that

yeah that's right but I don't necessarily need to vote I mean this is particularly concerned with younger voters. And he's, you know, one of the tasks is going to be to have to, is going to be to motivate them. But the choice is going to be pretty clear. I do think, you know, and I've said this before, issues are obviously important in elections, but narratives are what win elections. And the Biden campaign needs to settle on its narrative and hammer away at it for the next 10 months. That narrative, in my mind, goes very much to, exactly what kind of country do you want because these guys are starkly different in their vision of the country and in where they would take it. And it's not just about democracy,

although that's an extraordinarily important element of it. But it also goes to quality of life, the state of the economy, and whether people can work hard and get ahead in it, the prospects for young people. I mean, it goes to a lot of different things, the sustaining and strengthening and strengthening of rights. I mean, there are a lot of elements here. And when you put them all together, they ought to be motivational, even if you have problems with elements of the decisions that the president has made. Not long ago, I saw someone go through a sudden loss, and it was a stark reminder of how quickly life can change and why protecting the people you love is important. Knowing you can take steps to help protect your loved ones and give them that extra layer

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Trump, would it have been better for the country of Romney 1 in 2012, which would have mitigated the risk of Donald Trump being elected in 2016? No, I would never say that. I think, you know, and Jamie, you won't be surprised to hear me say. I think Barack Obama was a great president, and I think a majority of Americans look back on his presidency favorably. You know, the idea that you'd forego four years because Donald Trump might get elected four years later is, that doesn't make sense to me at all.

I mean, if I have regrets, it's probably. about the 2016 campaign and how that unfolded. And the lack of seriousness that people, with which people took Trump, I think that's the thing that concerns me or that bothers me the most in looking back. But I wouldn't sacrifice those four years. I just would have run a smarter campaign in 2016.

But, you know, it is somewhat of a silly question, but I do you think there's a larger meeting. Does that mean that you are maybe not as concerned, even if you are concerned, of the threat that Trump poses to the democratic system, that you believe he's a survivable event for the democratic system, for the American system? Well, I mean, I want to separate out the questions. I don't know. I mean, I have grave concerns that I've been very open about as well about what Trump's election would mean. just the fact that he may, by the time we reach the Republican convention, have been convicted of a felony counts, and not just on any subject, but for conspiring to overturn a free and fair election. And the Republican Party would then be hoisting a candidate who was convicted of those things. And what would it say if we as a country embrace that? You know, so that's, that's,

I have deep, deep concerns. And I take him seriously when he, when he talks about his campaign of vengeance that he would, that he would pursue. And you, you know, that he's not coming with General Mattis this time. He's coming with, you know, General Flynn. He's not coming with Barr. He's going to come with some pliable attorney general. They may not be appointed. but he'll still have the ability to put acting people in these roles. And, you know, it's very concerning, the destruction of civil service. Very, very concerning. And one hopes that our institutions are strong enough to survive that.

And we shouldn't underestimate those. I mean, Donald Trump, we saw in 2020 when he concocted a story about the election being stolen. We saw, you know, people across the country do their jobs, election officials, elected officials, Republicans, and Democrats. We saw judges, including some he appointed, doing their jobs and throwing out what were frivolous complaints. We do have strong institutions, but they certainly would be pressure tested by a return of Donald Trump. I know you have a hard out. So just two quick questions here. Just a corollary to the last one and then a closing question. You mentioned that what you would have hoped to be done differently is run a different campaign

to stop Trump in 2016. Is there anything that you believe that the Obama administration, the second term, could have done differently or may have done better that would have not allowed Donald Trump to rise? Or was that something that you think totally unrelated to anything, the president's position. Look, every, Jamie, and I mean, when I was advising Senator Obama about whether he should run or not, I wrote a strategic memo, and I said that every election, particularly presidential election, particularly when a president is leaving, is influenced by who that president was, and never, ever do people choose the replica of what they have.

have, they choose the remedy to whatever they think the deficiencies of that president were. Barack Obama was elected in part because people thought that George W. Bush saw the world in these black and white terms and had no, did not see the gray, did not see the complexities. And, you know, I mean, that was a fundamental flaw. Obama was seen, and they saw him as a sort of a practitioner of Washington politics in a way that they didn't like. Obama was seen as a departure of that. Eight years later, I think people were tired of nuance.

They were tired of complexity. They responded to Trump's kind of proclamations about what he would do by fiat. And, you know, so, of course, you know, there are. there's a relationship between the two. But again, you know, I think that the election was winnable

in 2016. And, you know, and I don't blame just the, you know, I'm not blaming Hillary Clinton. I'm not blaming her campaign. But I think we generally as a country couldn't get our arms around the fact

that Donald Trump could be president. I think a lot of people who didn't vote might have voted. I think people would have looked at the third party options differently. But, you know, that's looking backward and I'm trying to look forward here. And finally, taking President Obama out of the equation, who's the most naturally gifted politician that you've ever interacted with? Well, certainly you have to put Bill Clinton in that category. I mean, he was a natural. I mean, I think the two of them didn't get elected president by accident. They both had superior political skills. But look, I've worked with

people on all levels. I mean, I've seen one of the first candidates I ever worked with was Harold Washington, the first black mayor of Chicago. One of the most extraordinary politicians that I've ever seen and one of the best reformers. And, you know, Deval Patrick in Massachusetts, I feel in many ways the same about him. So I've seen a lot of great politicians in my time. But you have to put Clinton and Obama at the top of the list. David Axelrod, thank you for your time, and thank you for joining the dispatch.

All right, Jamie, great to be with you. Thank you. You know what I'm going to be.