The Dividend Cafe - Monday - March 23, 2026

Episode Date: March 23, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4c6aI2f In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recounts extreme market volatility after futures fell ~350 points overnight, then swung over 1,000 points higher on a Trump tweet claiming “very good and productive” U.S.-Iran talks and a five-day postponement of strikes; Iran denied negotiations, yet markets held gains, with the Dow closing up 631 points (+1.38%), S&P 500 up 1.15%, and Nasdaq up 1.38% amid large intraday ranges. Oil spiked near $104 then slid, with crude closing at $89 (-9.5%), while all 11 sectors finished positive led by consumer discretionary; healthcare lagged. Gold remained down ~16% from its high as the U.S. dollar drew safe-haven flows. The host highlights key near-term signals: Iran’s regional attacks and Strait of Hormuz developments, notes uncertainty about a market bottom, mentions TSA funding issues, shifting Fed expectations and internal disagreement, and midstream/LNG dynamics tied to offline capacity. 00:00 Wild Futures Whipsaw 00:45 Trump Tweet Sparks Rally 02:39 Did Iran Talks Happen 05:41 What Markets Watch Next 06:30 Sector Moves and Gold Drop 08:01 Have We Hit a Bottom 09:20 Policy Fed and Energy Notes 10:40 Week Ahead and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Hello, and welcome to the Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe where the roller coaster ride that is the market has continued. Last night, Sunday night, my favorite night, futures opened up quite flat. A little surprising because Asian markets were getting hit at the time. and yet, of course, U.S. markets had endured some volatility late last week, and my thought was Asia was playing catch-up. U.S. markets were not up or rallying or reversing at all, but were not down as much as expected.

And I thought that that might turn overnight. I was up at 3.30 Pacific, and indeed, markets were down 350 points at my wake-up. Then, and I'm about to read word for word, a tweet came out that caused an over a thousand point swing in pre-market action almost instantly. And I quote from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, I'm pleased to report the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days, had very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. I've instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all. military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, end

quote. So markets went from down 350 to up 1,150, 1,500 points, and oil dropped from about $184.37. An hour later, still in the pre-market, oil was up to 91, way off the high, but way off the low, and the futures were pointing to an 800-point market open, again, still way up, but not as high as it had gotten to. And then the market did actually open, and we closed up 631 points along the way. We had, I want to give this exact number, 1,100 points between Friday's close and the intraday high. From the intraday high to intraday low, we had a new. 900 point gap. But again, the Dow did close 631 points to the upside. That's 1.38%. The SMP 500, not quite as much, up 1.15, the NASDAQ up 1.38. All three indices up over 1%. All three,

a rebound type day, all three way off of their highs, all three were facing downside before. And then the question is, what exactly happened? Are we having discussions with Iran or not? Here's the thing that is most fascinating to me. The Iranian authorities responded, no, we have not in negotiations. There have not been talks. And yet, the market seemed to maintain the upside as if this were happening. There is a component that I believe is the market banking on, believing in, wanting to see that so-called taco dynamic that was the famed acronym Trump always chickens out after the tariffs and liberation day, that President Trump was

being chastened by market reality, whether it be commodity prices, bond prices, equities, risk assets, et cetera. What do I think is actually going on? Well, I've already been out on the record of saying that if I said what I think is going on in back channel issues, geopolitical discussions, the real military dialogue, that you should discount it because anyone is saying does not know. And that includes the people I'm talking to. But I did spend significant time today trying to at least get a take from people that I do trust. I don't trust them because I believe they know because I believe they're speculating too. I believe their speculation is better than other speculation simply by nature of connections, experience, expertise,

etc. But not because they're on the inside. Because if anyone's on the inside, they're not allowed to be talking about it. Okay? So let's be very clear. There are people you can believe are good inside sources, but they're not people who are actually in the inside of this if they're talking. Because if they talk, then they're not in the inside. It's a really simple calculus, my friends. So from those that have experience, expertise, connections, what is their spidey sense tell them is going on, it is that there is, despite Iran's denial of substantive negotiations, that there are talks that the president cannot be freestyling this, but there's still a lot of open-ended ambiguity as to where it will go. Seems reasonable. I don't think markets care if it's

actually happening or not. I think they care that the president's indicating it is because they They see it either as a bridge to something substantive to end this war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and normalize oil and bond markets, or they see it as the president setting it up for him to do so with some type of face covering capitulation. There's a huge difference in those outcomes politically. There may very well be a huge difference in those outcomes geopolitically, but it may be that there isn't a huge difference in those outcomes. financially, markets, et cetera. So what do I think will matter in the days ahead as we try to get an idea of what's actually happening? Is Iran continuing with kinetic attacks on regional countries in the Middle East? Forget U.S. Israel. We are talking about Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, et cetera. If Qatar is still receiving attacks, it's very unlikely that Iran is building up

towards some sort of negotiated settlement of the United States. Is the straight of our moves seeing more activity, an evolving path to reopening or not? I think these are going to be vitally important. Not tomorrow, but in two, three, five days in the week ahead. That is the basic update in Iran. What did it mean for markets today, top performing sector, consumer discretionary, up almost two and a half percent monumental rally. The worst performing sector was still positive, which is the point 11 out of 11 sectors up.

But that was health care, which was up a grand total, a three basis points. Gold is now down 16% since its all-time high. It had gotten down 23% before the losses reversed earlier today. It's generating a lot of conversation because a lot of people do it under the narrative that gold is a safe haven asset. Why would gold go down when we go into a war? the reality is that the dollar in the last few weeks has proven to be a safe haven, that U.S. dollar has seen quite a flight of capital into it, when treasuries have not and bond yields have

gone higher, and then as I mentioned, where gold is actually struggled. Correlations turn on and off all the time around gold, which in case you don't get the humor or what I just said means they're not very good correlations. but one correlation that has rematerialized would be the inverse correlation of gold to the dollar. And so what I would say is not that gold has done anything or gold didn't do this or behave this way or that way. I would just simply say it behaved in an inverse correlation to the dollar. The dollar was perceived as the flight to safety. And as money went into the U.S. dollar money came out of gold.

Do I believe that the markets have hit a bottom? Well, of course I don't. I have absolutely no idea. No one knows. Well, let's just pretend for a second. Let's pretend that there's negotiations coming with Iran. There's going to be some form of a deal. Things are moving in the right direction in the early morning futures, flipping 1,500 points instantly was evidence of that.

If that were to be the case, that 6,495 proves to be the bottom in the S&P 500 out of this Iran military operation. Then that would mean we had from a peak 7,022, to that 6495 that was hit late last week, a peak to trough drop of 7.2%. That would not even be equal to the average annual market drawdown. Do not expect that is the case, but even if it is, it would just simply indicate that we did not get an average. drop when oil went above $100. Volatility right now is prevalent, including in today, with the up and down movements in today. But the idea that we're at the very end of it does not

seem evidenced yet. It doesn't mean it won't happen. I've explained where I think overall things are going in the Iran War will quickly say the public policy, the TSA continuing to be unfunded, that there is talk of putting ICE agents in airports to assist TSA. I don't. don't really know how that will work. The Fed is now in the futures market shows a greater possibility of a hike this year than a cut. You have Fed Governor Austin Goolsby saying he's more worried about inflation than employment. You have Fed governor, Stephen Myron, talking about how would they need to cut four times, very wide dispersion of opinions within the Fed.

Crude closed at $89, down 9.5% of the day. It got as low as 84. Midstream was up 1.5% last week when the markets were down 2%. And a lot of that had to do with Cutters LNG capacity. 17% of it is offline and believed to be offline for the next three years minimum, producing a pretty sizable bid higher in anything related to liquefied natural gas supply. And, of course, the liquefied natural gas transatlified. transporters. So that is the scoop from the normal categories we cover most of our talk,

obviously dealing with the Iran issues. And with that said, I would say that we expect this week will mostly move higher and lower in markets around news out of Iran. But with that said, please do reach out with any questions you have. We look forward to answering them and being in touch with you in any way we can be helpful here at the Bonson Group. where we want to thank you for listening, watching and reading the Dividing Cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC.

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