The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Thursday - July 25, 2024

Episode Date: July 25, 2024

Market Volatility and Economic Indicators: Insights from Dividend Cafe – July 25 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the volatile market activity on July 25th, where the Dow saw significant fluctuations before closing up 81 points, while NASDAQ and S&P ended the day lower. Key economic updates include a much stronger than expected preliminary GDP at 2.8%, stable jobless claims, and mixed durable goods orders. The session highlights a continued rotation from high-valuation sectors to value sectors like energy and financials. Listeners are advised to anticipate upcoming PCE data and reminded of the need for personalized investment advice. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:19 Market Volatility Recap 01:23 Economic Data Highlights 02:21 Durable Goods Orders Analysis 03:05 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Data 03:31 Disclaimer and Legal Information Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Thursday, July the 25th. Brian Saitel with you here again today. And it was quite a volatile day really in markets. You had kind of morning weakness. The Dow was positive, but just hardly. It was up maybe 40 points, but both the NASDAQ and the S&P were quite lower on the day. And then those things tended to reverse around midday. You had a Dow that was up over 500 points and a NASDAQ and S&P that were also positive, close to a percent, not quite,

on the day. And then into the afternoon, basically we just reverted to the morning action and yeah, Dow closed up about 81 points. NASDAQ was down 0.9%. S&P was down 0.5%. So again, more rotation from some of the higher valuation sectors of the markets like technology and communications and consumer discretionary into some of those other sectors on the value side, and frankly, on the dividend growth side, which are things like energy, industrials, financials, and some materials. Continued rotation on the day there. We had interest rates up slightly, about three basis points on the day, closed at 425 on the 10-year. We got some economic data today. Preliminary GDP came out at 2.8%, which is far above consensus at about 1.9% for the quarter.

So some pretty strong GDP numbers for the quarter. These things can get revised up or down, of course. So take that for what it is. It's preliminary first read, but that puts an annualized number at 3.1, and we were only expecting 2.9. So some strong numbers on GDP, basically led by consumption and then some inventory build. So we'll see if there's revisions on those figures. Otherwise, it looks quite good, really. Some initial jobless claims today were basically in line. They were actually a little bit better. We came in at 235. We were expecting 239. And same thing on existing claims,

more or less right in line. We got about 1.85 million on existing. So employment hanging in there, slightly cooler than it was say six months ago, but still quite healthy. We had durable goods orders today that frankly disappointed for the month of June. They were down 6.6%, which is the lowest technically since the pandemic started in April of 2020. But when you peel back, and by the way, we were expecting about a half a percent increase, a negative 6% versus a 0.5% increase is a big difference on expectations. But if you strip out some government things like defense and aircraft, it was actually fine. We got actually a positive 1% out of that. So that's

a core reading on durable goods was it was actually fairly positive. So the market didn't overly react to that news since it was a bit of a mixed bag in their in durable goods orders. So with that, I'm going to keep it short and sweet. Like I said, an up and down day, but all sort of sideways. He had value outperformed significantly again, which is the theme we've seen for several weeks. Tomorrow, we've got PCE data that comes out, which is what the markets are really waiting to sink their teeth into. And then we'll have Dividend Cafe, as usual,

in your inbox on Friday. So with that, I shall let you go. Have a good evening and reach out with questions. Thank you. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Thank you. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. The Bonser Group and Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no express or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness

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