The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Thursday - November 7, 2024

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Market Follow-Through and FOMC Rate Cut Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel on November 7, key financial market movements are discussed, including a flat Dow after the previous day's significant 3.5% rise, and modest gains in the S&P and NASDAQ. The podcast details the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC meeting, which resulted in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the range to 4.5%-4.75%. The host highlights the day's market dynamics, with previously leading sectors falling back and tech companies rebounding, driven by changes in bond yields. Employment data remained consistent with expectations, and the volatility index (VIX) saw a substantial drop, signaling market optimism. Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for more in-depth analysis in the upcoming long-form episode. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:28 Sector Performance Analysis 00:55 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 02:09 Employment Data and Market Sentiment 02:31 Volatility and Market Outlook 02:54 Conclusion and Upcoming Content Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, November the 7th. And Brian Seitel with you here to give you this recap in what was really a follow through from yesterday's move higher. this recap in what was really a follow-through from yesterday's move higher. The Dow actually was, I've never actually really seen this. It was a 0.00% move on the Dow. So a flat Dow Industrials after yesterday's 3.5% move, the S&P was up seven-tenths of a percent. The NASDAQ was up 1.5%. So what you got today was an exact opposite of yesterday in that all the leaders yesterday were the laggards today. So things like financials, M&A companies, anything related to those more cyclical areas of energy, those were the laggards. And then the leaders for

today were all the things that lagged yesterday, which is the big technology companies, some of the China tech had a rebound, some of the home builders that sold off yesterday, which is the big technology companies, some of the China tech had a rebound, some of the home builders that sold off yesterday. One of the reasons for that was that the FOMC concluded their meeting today and cut interest rates. So some of those sectors yesterday were hit because the 10-year was up so much. It was up 15 basis points. Today on the 10-year, we got 10 basis points off that. So a huge move lower on yields that we closed at 434. So we gave back a lot of what ran up yesterday. And that's what did some of those other sectors better on the day. The FOMC concluded their meeting. And of course, just as we thought, cut basis points, 25 basis points off the target rate. It was a

unanimous decision. So no dissension at all amongst the Fed presidents. So we're now at a range of four and a half to 475. And there's a 75% chance that they'll do another cut in December. Most of the verbiage that they had in their statement was, they changed a few different things, but nothing major. I'd say it was pretty status quo. The press conference, when asked about fiscal side with what Trump may or may not do, they essentially just pleaded the fifth and just said that they're independent and will continue to look at the data and do what they need to do, which is what else would you really expect them to say? But there you have it on the Federal Reserve side. We had initial claims in line with expectations on the job side for the week. Continuing claims were a little higher in the jobs number, and that's something to pay attention to.

But for now, things are status quo and looking good on the employment side. And again, it was more just a rate story, at least on the Fed side. But positive data markets, the interesting thing is just what volatility has done the last two days. We're talking a 25% just collapse in the VIX. So markets are feeling pretty good. And frankly, seeing some follow through today with markets hanging in there after yesterday's just huge move is a positive thing. The bias here is definitely still to the upside in risk assets. So with that, I'm going to let you go for the evening. I wish you well. Reach out with your questions as you do, and we will be back with you. Tomorrow, we'll have the Long Form Dividend Cafe

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