The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - December 10, 2024

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - December 10th Welcome to The Dividend Cafe for Tuesday, December 10th! Brian Szytel of The Bahnsen Group provides a comprehensive commentary on the day's market performance. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq saw slight declines, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly. The NFIB small business survey indicated a positive trend, rising above its historical average. There was also a positive result in the non-farm labor productivity for Q3. Brian emphasizes caution despite current market confidence, urging proper portfolio management to weather potential market pullbacks. Tune in for detailed insights and upcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Cafe 00:14 Market Overview: December 10th 00:47 Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment 01:18 Small Business and Productivity Surveys 02:26 Volatility and Market Positioning 03:46 Final Thoughts and Contact Information 04:01 Disclaimer and Legal Information Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Tuesday, December the 10th. Brian Seitel with you here from the Bonson Group and bringing you some information on today's moves, we had a slightly down market. The Dow was down 154 points. That's about a third of a percent. And the S&P and the NASDAQ were down essentially the same, give or take a small amount. So everything was down on the equity side, right around a third of 1%. The 10-year was up three basis points. So we gained three basis points on the 10-year. We closed at 423.

So a little give back today, but fairly modest. There wasn't a whole lot in the economic calendar. There was a couple of things out, although tomorrow we're going to have a fresh read on inflation with CPI. And I believe the markets are frankly just waiting for that more meaningful news. Now that we're getting into the year end, that's one of the final larger things that we'll get on the economic side, at least until the end of the year. We also have next week's FOMC decision, which is an 85% probability they're going to lower rates by 25 basis points. But we're starting to get down to the wire and those are the remaining two pieces. And so today it was a little bit quiet, but you did have the NFIB small business survey. It actually has been below its historical average for almost three years.

A lot of that has to do with just general uncertainty, whether it's political or interest rate driven or economic. There's been uncertainty on the small business side. Most of that, I think, was more interest rate related over those years than anything else. But now that you have some clarity, rates are coming down. You know, the election has happened. The survey actually jumped up above historical average and to its highest level in over three years. So again, these are surveys. They tend to be backward looking versus forward looking because people answer them as people. And most people will give

you what they're feeling currently or have just felt or just went through versus can predict exactly what will happen in the future. So there you have it on the small business survey, much better than expected. We did have a productivity survey on non-farm labor productivity come out right in line. It was 2.2% for Q3. So generally speaking, positive data on the economic side, continuing to have some momentum in stocks, albeit unless call it week or so, we've given some back, in stocks albeit unless call it week or so we've given some back but still optimism is high the volatility index remains low and david wrote about this yesterday on dividend cafe actually and i wanted to reiterate it because i've written about it before too but you know all of these things that we talk about are very true there is part of the market that has really become stretched

that is overvalued you know we don't tend to own a lot of that in the portfolios that we're managing, but it's out there. Volatility has come down. And so there's a general feeling of complacency. And usually that's not a good recipe for forward-looking returns. But I think if your portfolio is set up and constructed the right way, you really don't have a lot to worry about. It should be set up to weather some storms and frankly, be able to take advantage of them if we do get market pullbacks and some different things. So that's what I would say there just to reiterate things, everybody being on one side of any trade. So whether it's the private equity world right now, waiting for interest rates to come down, because every deal is just going to happen when rates go down back to 3%. You know, I'm hesitant to feel like that

is going to play out the way people want. But in the same token, just because everybody is saying that things are good in the market and not to worry, don't be complacent, I guess, is my message. And I think it echoes some of the things we've written in the past. Our clients don't have to worry about that per se. But for any of those listeners out there that are worried about it, give us a call. See what we can do to help. With that, I'm going to let you go for this evening. per se, but for any of those listeners out there that are worried about it, give us a call. See

what we can do to help. With that, I'm going to let you go for this evening. I'll be back with you tomorrow, which will be Wednesday. We'll have, again, the CPI number to go through, so some bigger inflation data to go through. And I appreciate your questions. Please reach out with any of them and all of them. We love them all. Thank you and have a good night. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower them. We love them all. No investment process is free of risk. There is no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable.

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