The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - December 3, 2024

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - December 3 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach, Florida, delivers a daily market recap for December 3. The Dow closed down 76 points, while S&P and NASDAQ ended in positive territory. The ten-year yield rose by three basis points, and the October JOLTS report indicated an increase in job openings. Several Federal Reserve governors spoke, signaling a likely December rate cut, boosting market optimism. The episode also previewed upcoming employment reports, predicting that data dependency will drive future economic policies. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:30 Economic Indicators and Job Market 01:27 Federal Reserve Updates 01:58 Upcoming Employment Reports 02:08 Fed Governors' Statements 03:26 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Tuesday, December the 3rd, and Brian Seitel with you here from our West Palm Beach, Florida office with your daily recap here on the market. We had a generally positive day. The Dow ended up closing down 76 points, although it had come off of the lows throughout the trading day. The S&P, though, and the NASDAQ both closed in positive territory. The S&P just barely. NASDAQ was up four-tenths of a percent. And 10-year yield rose about three basis points. We closed at 423. tenths of a percent and 10-year yield rose about three basis points. We closed at 423. And on the economic side, not a lot. The October job opening number, which is called the JOLTS report, came out, which beat expectations and meaning more job openings were available, meaning that there's employers out there increasing hiring, which is usually a positive sign for the

economy. Of course, during COVID, or right after really, there was a real big imbalance between those two things. We had a lot more job openings when everyone realized the world wasn't going to end and the economy was still going to be even stronger than previously thought. And the labor market got far too tight. That is now kind of balanced now to a more normal level. But since September was about a 42-month low in the jolts number, likely a lot of doubt around angst over where the election was going to go and some clarity on maybe tax rates and some of those things. It's nice to see a rebound here. And again, positive sign, generally speaking, for the economy. There was a couple of different,

when I say a couple, I'm talking five or six different Fed governors speaking in different events around the country today. Most of them, almost in unison, were pretty dovish. And that moved up the probability of a December rate cut, which is in about two weeks from today, if I'm not mistaken, the 17th, not two weeks from tomorrow, sorry, moved up the probability of that 25 basis point rate cut up 10 basis points to 73%. So almost a done deal there. There will be some employment numbers that are out this week. We get ADP private payrolls tomorrow on Wednesday, and then we'll have the non-farm payroll report on Friday with the unemployment rate. So of course, data dependency with what they keep saying is important.

But to give you an idea of some of the comments, Waller said that he's just leaning towards backing a rate cut in December. So that's pretty straightforward for once. He said the current policy is significantly restrictive and that easing at 25 basis points just means not pressing on the brake pedal is hard. So I think he put it probably the best of them. New York Fed President Williams just said it was appropriate to move to more of a neutral setting and also cited the robust labor market, but also the gains in productivity. And when you get a gain in productivity, that is obviously a good thing. And he talked about the economy expanding because of that. And he's looking at that expansion now not causing an increase in inflation. So generally,

a dovish statement and then also just positive on the economy. Remember, their mandate is full employment. So we spoke positively there and then steady prices. So both Daley, Kugler and Goolsbee, all other Fed president governors all said moving towards neutral was where they were trying to get to. And it was data dependent, so on. So, again, generally positive day in markets, a little bit of boost from some Fed speak, maybe a small boost from the job openings number on the day. But for that, I'm going to let you go on the evening. David had a couple of nice comments in there that he'll let you read through your own, but I'll let you go for tonight.

And I'd like you to please reach out with your questions as always and have a good night. Thank you very much. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. Thank you. or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices,

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