The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 11, 2024

Episode Date: June 11, 2024

Dividend Cafe: June 11 Market Commentary and Economic Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, we cover the market's performance on June 11th, noting that despite a slight overall decline, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted gains, while Treasury yields fell due to a strong auction of two-year notes. We also discuss the uptick in the Small Business Optimism Index, reflecting ongoing economic concerns such as interest rates and potential policy changes. Key upcoming events include a core CPI number and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview and Performance 00:44 Treasury Auction and Interest Rates 01:09 Small Business Optimism Index 02:04 Upcoming Economic Data Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Tuesday, June the 11th with you here today. And generally, a positive day in markets. It actually closed a little lower, about a third of a percent, down 120 points. But both the S&P and the NASDAQ were up. S&P was up 0.27, NASDAQ up 0.88. So decent day in markets and actually a follow through in bonds today as well with some bonds rallying also. The 10-year yield closed at 439, which was down seven basis points on the day. And the reason was a very strong two-year auction. We auctioned off about 39 billion of two-year notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio,

the best in about a year, and sent interest rates lower a little bit on the day. And for a treasury that has a pretty large supply issue coming to market to fund deficits, it's always welcome when they are able to sell and move them at lower interest rates. So those are all good things for the day. There was a small business optimism index. It's NFIB that was out, ticked up 0.8% to over 90, which was technically the strongest of the year. Although technically this is still the consecutive month of that optimism index below the historical average and there's a lot of reasons for that a lot of it is just interest rates going from zero

to five percent that affects small businesses ability to borrow money at competitive interest rates and fund their businesses of course we know employment is strong and things like this and generally the economy is strong as well really we're talking about some of the unknowns, what the Fed will do, when will they cut rates, their own funding mechanism and interest rate expense and these higher interest rates, and then potentially things like policy change if there's a new administration at the end of the year. All those things get baked into that optimism survey. And it is just that, it's a survey. So read into it as you will. Tomorrow, we have more data. We've got a core number on CPI. We have the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve

tomorrow, which will be big news and a press conference that will follow. And so really, we're looking at a Wednesday event of a pretty big day throughout the week. And there's just more economic data that comes out through the remainder of the week. So somewhat of a quiet day, at least for today. So that's what I have for you today. I'm going to keep it somewhat short, but I wish you all a lovely evening. And I appreciate your questions. Please send them on in. We'll answer them. Take care. Talk soon. Bye-bye. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower

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