The Dividend Cafe - The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - June 4, 2024

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - Dividend Cafe In today's daily recap on Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses the market performance with the Dow closing up 140 points, modest gains in the S&P and NASDAQ, and a continued bond market rally reflected in the 10-year yield drop to 4.33%. Real estate and consumer staples sectors led the day with about 1% gains, while materials and energy sectors saw declines. Oil prices decreased by $1.30 a barrel. The episode also touches on the JOLTS data indicating a drop in job openings and speculates that the labor market data will give the Fed a potential reason to loosen policy by the year's end. David also encourages viewers to check out ongoing questions on DividendCafe.com and concludes with a positive outlook for most asset classes in May. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:12 Daily Market Recap 00:41 Bond Market Rally 01:19 Sector Performance Overview 01:39 Oil Prices and Economic Data 01:54 Labor Market Insights 02:45 Fed's Potential Moves 02:59 Closing Thoughts and Resources 03:54 Legal and Investment Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello and welcome to the daily recap of the Dividend Cafe. This is David Bonson and I just wanted to let you know the Dow closed up 140 points today. That was 36 basis points to the upside. The S&P was up just a tiny bit, 15 basis points. The NASDAQ up about the same, 17 basis points. So very modest returns, but nevertheless up in the S&P and NASDAQ. The Dow up a little more, but all things being equal, pretty boring day. Sometimes people like boring days. This absolutely ferocious rally in the bond market has continued. The 10-year was down another seven basis points today.

The 10-year yield closing at 4.33%. To put that in perspective, it was at 4.7% on April 24th. So you're basically talking about in five weeks, you've had almost 40 basis points drop out of the 10 year. Of course, the yields going lower means the price is going higher. All up and down the yield curve, you see a decline in yields pushing bond prices higher. The top performing sector today was real estate. It was up 1%. Consumer staples right there with it up almost 1%. Materials were down the most up 1.2. Energy continued some downside from yesterday down almost another 1%. Mixed bag across sectors, but with the defensives of real estate and staples leading the way. Speaking of oil prices, they were down another $1.30 a barrel today,

Speaking of oil prices, they were down another $1.30 a barrel today, closed just below $73, down one and three quarters percent. The more significant economic data of the week will come on Friday when we get to the BLS jobs report for the month of May. And we'll get a read of where the unemployment percentage is, how many jobs were created last month and so forth. But in terms of the JOLTS data today, which is the job openings, they did fall to a three-year low. And so they got down, they're still just a tad above 8 million, but they were expected to come in at 8.3 million. So on one hand, you could argue it's a good thing to see more open jobs getting filled. On the other hand, that cushion of job openings

versus there would be employees looking for jobs continues to contract. And all of that leads me to believe that the labor data is just not going to be such that causes the Fed to think, oh boy, we really need to stay tight. I think it is all setting itself up to leave the Fed a permission structure to loosen by the end of the year. And we will continue to see what the data shows in that field. I think that's about all we need to go through here today. There is, of course, as always, at AskTBG on the DividendCafe.com webpage, ongoing questions that are real life questions that come from you guys sent to us at questions at thebonsongroup.com. Check out the latest that has come in there. And then what's on David's mind today really just got down to where markets came in in the month of May.

what's on David's mind today really just got down to where markets came in in the month of May. Mostly positive across the board. There was some volatility within the month, but from end to end ended up being up across most asset classes. And virtually every asset class on my screen is in the green on the year, with the exception of bonds just barely down a tiny bit and probably not even still down on the year now that I think about it based on the way yields have moved just in the last two or three days. I'm going to leave it there. Thanks for listening to the Dividend Cafe Daily Recap. Brian will be with you tomorrow. Take care. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment

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