The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - April 9, 2026

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

In this April 9 Dividend Cafe Weekly Market Commentary, Brian Szytel recaps markets following a strong prior-day rally with notable breadth (about 82% of NYSE names advancing), then discusses how Iran/Israel/Lebanon developments and ceasefire talks are contributing to a tenuous market backdrop despite continued gains across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. He reviews moves in yields and oil, including a sharp prior-day drop and a rebound, and explains the strategic and longer-term economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Seitel also answers a common question on the VIX as a measure of expected volatility and a potential contrarian indicator rather than a timing tool. He closes with key data points: February PCE inflation, jobless claims, weaker personal income, personal spending, and a lower final revision to Q4 GDP. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Rally and Breadth 00:43 Geopolitics Driving Sentiment 01:46 Oil Shock and Ceasefire Talks 02:32 Strait Closure Stakes 03:11 Long Term Global Workarounds 04:12 What the VIX Means 05:08 Key Economic Data Rundown 06:10 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. I welcome you back to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, April 9th. Brian Sightel is your host here today on another update actually in markets. And following yesterday's big up move, we actually had really impressive breadth that wasn't the strongest read ever, but it was up there. This was an 82% advance of names on the New York. So pretty big move higher yesterday. Obviously a two and a half percent move is just going to be a tough act to follow. And so you had markets open slightly lower really for no particular reason. There was continued conflict in Iran and also in Israel and Lebanon. And that led into it. So the markets open slightly lower. But then as market trading went on, you had about midday news about how Israel was in talks with Lebanon after all as part of this sort of simmering down of tensions in that region. The advance bowl. to bears ratio right now is basically in parity. There is about 1.2 to 1 technically, so a little bit more bullish than bearish, but that's pretty equal. And so my point is there's a lot going on,

obviously in the geopolitical landscape and market participants, which is what that is measuring, has about as many bulls as it does bears at this point. So just be prepared for a tenuous state in markets as things kind of work themselves out. But look, the market was up seven days in a row now on the S&P. It was up another six-tenths of a percent. The Dow, and it closing up on the day 275 points and also about 0.6%. Nasdaq was up about 0.8. So pretty broad-based across the board. And then he had yields pretty much stay the same throughout the day. Oil was actually higher early on and ended up closing up around 4% or so. It's actually after hours. It's up about 5% right now. That was after it's, you know, 16% drop yesterday, which was the largest intraday

drop in oil since April of 2020 during COVID. So there you have it. That's what Mark markets are kind of chewing through, and it all comes down to these negotiations. There's this two-week sort of ceasefire that has been declared between the two countries. There's a meeting that's happening on Saturday in Pakistan, of all places, which has been the sort of location and intermediary as these negotiations proceed. And until then, I suspect markets are going to more than likely air to the positive here the next couple of days. But it's tough for me to really guess that, honestly. So just keep prepared for some sideways action until we get more clarity. The reality, the reality, is Iran does have the upper hand when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a political comment.

It's just undeniable. The straight is still closed and the U.S. has engaged in a heavy military campaign. And so they've held it. And so going into those negotiations, that does give them a card to play, can't deny it. The issue, though, is the longer this thing plays out, technically and economically, on the world stage, the U.S. has the upper hand, of course, from a military standpoint and an economic standpoint. But then also, the longer that that straight stays closed, the more likely. it's going to elicit help and support from other countries to get it open. You know, a lot of those countries rely on that. So there's that part of it. And then, you know, we also have the potential for countries to start to reroute things, build pipelines,

create new alliances and not have to rely on it so much in the future. It's a problem that they're trying to fix now. And oftentimes the reaction is to solve it with a workaround. We saw that. If you remember, when we saw a supply chain start to move out of China and move to other places like Vietnam and India. You know, that was because both of tariff uncertainty, but also just the realization during COVID that there's a supply chain issue and national security risk issue with things like breathing apparatuses and syringes and different medical devices and different things that were needed. The longer plays out, the more likely that is to happen. All that said, I'm well aware that the administration is under a much shorter time period than just to let

slowly the world shift the way that it gets its oil transported around the world. Nonetheless, that's a dynamic that I think is important. And all those things, they have short and long-term implications globally. So that's why this thing is tenuous, as I've said. There's a lot at stake. Question in there today was one that we get often. It's about the VIX because I think we talk about it and people want to know what it is. So this is basically a measurement of market volatility. What it's technically doing is giving you the prices of 30-day forward options on the S&P. So just don't worry about what that means and just think about, you know, higher prices means more volatility and lower prices means less. That makes it during times of lower VIX or lower options prices, you get complacent

markets. It's cheaper to buy protection on the market when it's low price like that. And then conversely, when things are fearful and markets are volatile, I think Liberation Day is a really good example. Or even the start of this around thing, but I'd say Liberation Day is a little bit better, just because markets are moving up and down 8% a day. The VIX got far north of 40 at that point, double where it is now. what that is you know I look at it as a contrarian indicator I suppose but I wouldn't use it as a market timing tool I would basically use it as Buffett said when there's blood in the street is when you want to be a buyer and that's when the VIX is high so take that for what it's worth there was one two three

four five pieces of economic data in the news today and I'm just going to run through them really quick first one is the most relevant this is PCE this is a measurement of inflation and we've been watching it here a little bit the number here is for February it was actually up 0.4% for February it was which puts it at 2.2% year-over-year that was in line. If you move out food and energy, it was still about the same, also in line. Initial jobless claims weaker than expected. We got 219 versus 210. Personal income was much weaker than expected.

It was down one-tenth. We were thinking the gain of 0.3 was more likely. And then the good old American consumer personal spending was actually just a 10th weaker at 0.5% for February. And the last but not least, you did have a final revision, a Q4 GDP, believe it or not. If you remember, this started out at 1.4, and it's been slowly revised lower different anomalies back then, if you remember, government shut down and so forth. But we ended up with a 0.5% number. That's far less than what we started with.

So I'm going to end it there on those economic points for you today and let you get into your evening. And if I don't speak to you, have a lovely weekend and reach out with your questions as always. Thanks for listening to the Dividend Cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with high-tower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC.

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