The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - August 14, 2025

Episode Date: August 14, 2025

Market Update and PPI Data Insights - Dividend Cafe Daily Recap Host David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel to deliver a daily market update. Despite some intraday movements, the market indices closed flat, with the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ showing negligible changes. The 10-year yield rose to 4.28%, driven by a surprising 0.9% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month. Goods prices remained low, while services saw more significant movement. The episode teases a deeper analysis on inflation and related data points, set to be discussed in the weekly Dividend Cafe commentary. Additional updates include a 2% rise in oil prices and stable initial jobless claims at 224,000. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:17 Market Indices Performance 00:40 Bond Market and PPI Impact 01:58 Upcoming Dividend Cafe Insights 02:41 Additional Data Points 03:18 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Hello, welcome to the daily recap of the Dividend Cafe. This is David Bonson, not Brian Sightel. Brian is in transit today flying back to the East Coast, and so I am taking on the daily summary burden myself, and let me tell you how easy markets made it for me today. on this day of me filling in for my great partner, Brian, the Dow is flat, the S&P is flat, the NASDAQ is flat.

How is that for a boring day? Literally, even though the Dow is down 11 points, it equals to a 0% change for pretty much all three market indices, a couple pennies up and down, Dow, S&P, NASDAQ. Now, they'd moved around a little in the middle of the day, but they ended the day flat. That movement in the middle of the day was related to the fact that, in fact, the bond market It was actually down a bit today. The 10-year was up four basis points. So the 10-year yield closed at 4.28%.

Now, that's moving from a pretty darn low number to a little bit higher, very low number. But either way, why did bond yields move up? It was the story of the day that didn't end up impacting equities, which was the producer price index. And it was a PPI number that was expected to come in at 0.2% up on the month. and it came in at 0.9% on the month. Both core and headline, whether you're including food and energy or not, were up 0.9. Year over year, core PPI is up to 3.7%. Now, goods prices are still quite low in that movement on producer wholesale prices. Services moved more. The number excluding food and energy, which is when you go from headline to core, then further

excluding trade was also up 0.6%. So this is a pretty difficult monthly read to unpack because there's not a lot of clarity around it. I could sit here and talk more in this very short daily recap, but I'm not going to because the entire Dividendon Cafe tomorrow Friday, our big weekly commentary that is the Dividendon Cafe, is going to be dedicated to the subject of perfect clarity on inflation. And I am confident that it will leave you confused and dazed about where things stand. So the reality is PPI today, move markets until it didn't. And we'll unpack more of what's going on in CPI, PPI, and other inflationary data points in the dividend cafe tomorrow. Other data points real quickly. Oil was up over 2% of the day closed at $64. And then initial jobless

claims that come each and every Thursday came in at $224,000. Right smack in that middle ground number between 220 and 230 where it's been sitting for so long and indicating a somewhat benign read, something I actually talked about in last Friday's Dividy Cafe. So no big numbers to report other than the PPI upside surprise, which came after a pretty benign CPI number yesterday. In all seriousness, we'll unpack it more in Dividing Cafe tomorrow. And in the meantime, have yourself a wonderful Thursday afternoon and evening. Thanks for listening to the daily recap at the Dividend Cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC,

member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free risk. There is no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced Tyrion will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee.

The investment opportunities, reference Tieran, may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or vice. The Bonsor Group in Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no, express, or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced here in. The data and information

are provided as of the date reference, such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only that opinions expressed are solely those of the Bonson Group and do not represent those of High Tower Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates. High Tower advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client's individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for any related questions.