The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - January 8, 2026

Episode Date: January 8, 2026

Market Overview and Economic Data Insights: January 8th Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the day's market movements from West Palm Beach, Florida, highlighting slight increases in stock prices and minor sell-off in bonds. The anticipation of key announcements, such as the non-farm payroll report and a Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariff eligibility, is noted. Other topics include the initial jobless claims report and its implications, the narrowing trade deficit, and Q3 productivity growth. Additionally, there is a discussion on the strategic importance of Venezuelan oil reserves and the potential geopolitical ramifications. The episode concludes with an optimistic overview of recent economic data and a preview of upcoming events. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:23 Upcoming Economic Reports and Supreme Court Ruling 01:00 Market Reactions and Predictions 02:31 Economic Data Highlights 04:18 Venezuela's Strategic Importance 06:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome back into Dividend Cafe this Thursday, January the 8th, Brian Saitel is still with you here in West Palm Beach, Florida. On a more or less positive day in risk assets, you've got stocks that were slightly higher, although mixed. You had bonds that sold off just slightly on the day. And really, the directionless feel seem to come from more news coming out tomorrow than today, really. So we get tomorrow non-farm payroll report that's coming out. That'll be a fresh read on employment. And then you also get the Supreme Court ruling in the U.S. likely to come out on the IEEPA tariff eligibility constitutionally if they're going to stay or if they ultimately will get repealed.

And our view on this is that the White House may actually be hoping for the latter because they have two. two other mechanisms to use to make them stick, to make those tariff amounts, both in percentages and dollars more or less, stay the same. And so whether this gets overturned or not, they've got other mechanisms. Look, the market is pricing in essentially the overturning of them. These things can change, but the current betting odds, this is polymarket, this is Kalshi, or over 70%, you're at 79% on polymarket, which is a very reputable source. So if markets are forward-looking, and they're pricing these things in, then what we're seeing in trading is assuming that those things are going to come on done and need to be rejiggered in this current administration's

plan book to stick at the levels at which they are targeting for that. There's a few other sections that they can do that at section 232 and 301 to shift the rationale. But in the short term, would you have a market rally if they undid tariffs that were deemed to be economically hurtful? Probably. you did, that would be short-lived. And again, they're just going to reconstitute or institute them in another form, most likely anyways. The other thing is, well, I think that it's beneficial, at least for them to ultimately disappear and get overturned. It isn't because of me wanting a rally in the stock market or anything like that. It's just because constitutional fidelity, I think, is better for free markets and for capitalism in the long run anyways. And so it needs

to be upheld. And if there's a difference in opinion, that's what the Supreme Court exists for. Okay, that's the entire balances of power and the three branches of government. And either way, I think we'll get what we get and we'll move forward. But that's what we have a little bit there on some of the political front and what we're expecting tomorrow. There was some other economic news out today. There was initial jobless claims that came out. We actually got $208,000 for the week. And that was right in line with expectations. And remember, anything in that low 200 range, even up to 250 is basically the range following COVID, so that's about five years now. It actually represents a pretty healthy labor market overall. That's what we're expecting tomorrow with a non-farm

payroll report, but we'll see. For what it's worth, the expectation for tomorrow is that the unemployment rate will actually move a little lower from 4.6 to 4.5, and you'll get something along the lines of 50,000 jobs for the month of December. That would be down a little from November, but that's what markets are pricing at least now. So whether they'll be, excited or disappointed, I think, both of the IEPA decision and then also this payroll report will be important. Two other things on the calendar, though, for today, which was trade deficit narrowed by twice as expected. We were thinking it would be around $60 billion for the month of October, and it came in more like $29 billion. That's a couple months old now, so that data is a little

stale. Nonetheless, that would be positive for trade deficit. And then the other piece was Q through productivity at 4.9%. And that would be the strongest in two years. That was actually an expected number. Nonetheless, though, that's a robust productivity growth. And you can say that maybe AI or some of the benefits of technology are starting to flow into productivity. I'd say there has to be some truth to that. But there's also seasonality. And then there's also just the fact that's now over a quarter ago at this point. It's a little bit in the rear view mirror. Nonetheless, that's positive. So was the trade deficit. And actually, the initial jobless claims were also positive. So that's three for three on the day. So we'll take it. Question in there. Today was

very thoughtfully posed. I thought. This is about Venezuela and just the strategic benefit to the U.S. how much oil, how much reserves it has, proximity and geography, all of those things that would be important to not be overlooked by someone like the U.S. And my last comment and my answer, I think, is pretty relevant to this particular person's question. But look, there's no question that having private companies be allowed to come back in and produce the world's largest proven oil reserves so that it benefits everyone is a good thing. There's an argument to be made over politics and the style and the approach at which it was undertaken and all those things. They understand those and respect those. Opinions aside, nonetheless, having a state-run solution

that was subpar and having 25% of the population of a country depart, leave for other areas of the world just for a better opportunity, is a shame. And that's a sad thing. Is it the role for one country to change another's sovereignty. There's the question, and I understand there's people on both sides to that equation, but nonetheless, it would be hard to argue that there isn't a benefit to having more opportunity for people and to have the world benefit from a resource that is so widely used to fuel the overall world economy. And then, yes, of course, there's other factors at play. There's both China and Russia. With that big of an oil supply and reserve, you have other countries that have taken notice and made ties as well. And so I suppose

if there was three suitors or three shirts in the dirty pile of laundry between China and Russia and the U.S., it'd be hard to imagine most wouldn't agree that the U.S. would be the cleanest shirt in that dirty pile of laundry. At this point, it's going to come down to the off-ram that the U.S. will have to come up with and the plan to return sovereignty at some point and to make sure that these things happen. As we've mentioned, there'll be some benefits to the supply of the commodity itself, and that may change prices on the margin, but there's a demand picture that is really more tethered economic activity in that overall calculus that is as important as well. So there you go on the day. A couple of pieces of economic data, a couple of geopolitical events that we worked through,

and then, of course, some information about potentially tomorrow it may or may not happen with the tariffs that this administration has put into effect. That's what we have. It's Thursday, So I wish you a good weekend if I don't speak to you. With that, I'll let you go. Thanks for listening. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy ourselves securities. No investor process is free risk. There's no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced Turin will be profitable. past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.

The Bonsor Group in Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no express or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced. The data and information are provided as of the date reference. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only the opinions expressed are solely those of the Bonson Group and do not represent those of High Tower Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates. High Tower advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax

advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client's individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for any related questions.