The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - March 26, 2026

Episode Date: March 26, 2026

On Thursday, March 26, Brian Szytel reports a broad market selloff (Dow down over 400 points, S&P down ~1.5%, Nasdaq down ~2%) driven by rotation out of AI/social-media tech and into energy and staples as Brent and WTI oil rise over 4% amid U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. He notes the disruption also affects helium transport, with 27% of global helium transiting the strait and Taiwan sourcing about 69% of its helium that way, posing potential chip-production risks if prolonged. He outlines a U.S. “15-point plan” for Iran and warns failed negotiations could escalate, including actions on Iranian energy assets and possible ground troop deployment. Bonds also sell off after three weak Treasury auctions, pushing the 10-year yield up about 10 bps. He advises against trading around geopolitical events and explains WTI is globally priced. Initial jobless claims were 210,000, with muted labor-market activity. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:41 Oil Surge and Strait Risks 01:00 Helium and Chip Supply Threat 02:05 US Iran 15 Point Plan 03:15 Bonds Slide and Yields Jump 03:39 Don’t Trade Geopolitics 04:19 Who Sets WTI Prices 05:17 Jobless Claims Check In 05:59 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, March the 26th, Brian Saitel with you from our West Palm Beach, Florida office, still here all week. And we had a give-back day in markets. We've got a decent sell-off here. I'm actually recording this slightly before the close. but the market has been trailing lower for the entire trading day. We're down a little over 400 points on the Dow, about a percent and a half on the S&P and about two on the NASDAQ. So this is another big rotation day.

You're saying the sell-off and AI-related names, specifically social media type of tech companies, and much more outperformance, specifically in energy, obviously, and in some of the staples. And you've got a decent move up in oil. Brent and WTI are both up over four. 4% on the day. And this is about U.S. and Iran ongoing and negotiations that either are or aren't happening in progress that either is or isn't being made. But what it's doing is sending oil prices back higher. There's still a closure in the Strait of Hormuz. And it's disrupting energy transport, but it's also disrupting things like helium transport. And I wrote about this a week ago,

but technically 27% of the world's helium goes through there as well. And when you think about countries like Taiwan, where the largest semiconductor and chip foundry exists in the world, they use helium to cool down the chips as they build them. And it's specific to that purpose and it's necessary. And Taiwan gets about 69% of its helium through the Strait of Hormuz. So as of now, there isn't a chip shortage and there isn't necessarily a disruption. There has been a move higher in pricing. But as this goes on farther, there's also that risk as well. And if you think about the world needing oil, I would definitely put that above new chips, but chips are right up on the list too. So this can be a little bit more disruptive as time goes on. And the original

truce or hiatus of continued escalation in the war was only through the end of this week. So you're talking about Saturday morning. So it's coming down to the wire. And like I said, the U.S. has put together what they've called a 15-point plan. And I'm going to give you the main bullet points of what it is. It's basically the removal of key nuclear sites. Those are the big ones. It's zero uranium enrichment ever on Iran soil and the removal of all the stockpile that they've enriched and spent millions and millions of dollars on and that they have underground. It's immediate removal of all of that and a permanent commitment to never rebuild it. Reopening of the straight and ending of the strikes that they have ongoing to their neighboring countries, limiting the

amount of stockpile and the range of missiles and capability that they have, and then dismantling their proxy network and strategically aligned groups in the region. It's more or less calling on things that have been around for a very long time but never enforced in the patience of the United States has been tried, and now it's going to be enforced. So if negotiations aren't successful, then there should be an escalation in potentially involving the U.S. taking different energy assets in Iran and also deploying some ground troops to get the mission completed. So that's why markets don't like it today. Volatility is up on the day. And like I said, stocks are down and actually probably the bigger story is that bonds are down. We've had now three

different treasury auctions go fairly poorly, meaning that they're settling and closing at yields above the auction price. That's causing yields to go up. The 10-year yield was up 10 basis points middle of the day. And that's a decent move for that. That's my around the horn for you, at least on today's down move in the market. what I'll say is this. You just can't trade around geopolitical events. And I wish I could tell you which direction this will ultimately get settled at. But since I don't know, nor does anybody else, I'm not going to. But what I can tell you is if you're trying to reposition and react to this inside of a portfolio and instead of the way that money is being managed, it's a terrible idea.

It's unconscionable. You really need to resist that urge. And frankly, that's what we're here for. So let us take the accountability for managing through that. This will eventually get settled one way or the other, but not before it's going to shake people out, and that's what we're here to prevent. So not on our watch. Question in there today was actually similar to one that we've gotten, but I went ahead and included it again because it's a popular question, which is how or who sets the price of WTI? And if we're a net exporter, how does the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz affect prices in Oklahoma? The answer is that, of course, it's a global commodity. And this is an input costs to every single country, every single geography, every single industry sector and consumer.

So prices aren't set in a vacuum and they're not regional. They are very global and you get a supply shock and 20% of global supply is changed down, then you're going to get prices that go up and that's not going to happen just in one area, of course. You've got exporters in the United States that are producing shale, WTI, which is lights we crude and they're going to adjust their prices if the demand and supply imbalance is calling for that, of course. So that's the best way that I can answer that, and then I included a link in there for some additional information that I provided. There was one piece of economic news out on the day. I believe that it would be deemed good. This is the initial jobless claims number. We got 210,000. That's what was expected. But both

the hirings and the firings are just completely anemic at this point. So I look at this jobless claims number as a little bit of deer in headlights. There's just not a lot of action. going on in labor market. And I think some of it has to do with just uncertainty. And technically on the economic side, you have still positive fundamentals and backdrop. And so there isn't to change necessarily in an employer's outlooks here. It's still being looked at as temporary. Time will tell if the market is going to reassess that risk. But for now, that's what's being priced in. So that's what I have for you today. Short and sweet. I'm going to let you get back into your evening. Reach out with questions as always. And we'll see again on Dividendon Cafe.

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