The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - November 13, 2025

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

Market Downturn and Fed Uncertainty: Analyzing the Financial Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the significant downturn in both stocks and bonds on November 13th, with major indices and the 10-year yield showing notable movements. Brian analyzes the influence of hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve speakers and the implications of the recent government shutdown's end on market behavior. He also touches on the rotation from growth to value stocks, the potential impacts of tax refunds, and the importance of investing in intrinsic value. Additionally, Brian addresses concerns about AI fakes and stock market manipulation, reassuring that despite the presence of bad actors, the market remains investible and efficient. 00:00 Market Overview: A Down Day 00:33 Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance 01:24 Government Shutdown and Market Reaction 02:24 Rotation from Growth to Value 03:39 Tax Policy and Economic Stimulus 04:50 AI Fakes and Market Efficiency 05:46 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome in the Dividend Cafe this Thursday, November the 13th, Brian Saitel with you here. On a down day across the board in the market, both in stocks and bonds, it's actually a largest drawdown in about a month. We got the Dow down just a hair under 800 points. 797 points, which is about 1.65%. SMP was down in percentage terms the same. Nasdaq was down more at 2 and a quarter in percentage terms. And the 10 year was up five basis points at 412. So what happened? Rates went up here a little bit on the day. Most of that was because there were five, counted five different Fed speakers today, all of which had more of a hawkish lien in their

comments citing inflation as more of a concern than anything else. And so they were going to be slow to look at more rate cuts. That said, just like Powell said in his last press conference, when you're driving in the fog, you slow down. And that makes intuitive sense. I've driven in the fog growing up in Bakersfield, California, many times. And I always slowed down. There is a dearth of data right now.

So that's what they're talking about as the fog. The fog is just a lack of clarity around the BLS numbers, around job lists, around the CPI print. Both of those things, by the way, we were supposed to get today. And technically, the government did reopen as of today. So Trump signed the bill that passed through the House last night. It was 222 to 209. So even that to open the government again wasn't just but a slim majority that was able to get it done.

But the government reopened. And so we were hoping we'd get CPI and some employment data, but of course, now we won't. And it's delayed. And so the Fed is in a fog. And in the fog, they're going to say, they're going to take their time. But at the end of it, the Fed futures right now are only at 47% chance they're going to cut rates by 25 bips in December. So I think that's too low. I believe that the odds of them cutting rates in December are much higher than that. But I'm fine to be proven

wrong if that's the case, but I don't think it's going to be. This is the longest government shutdown in history that just came to an end and market greets it with an 800 point decline. Just like I said yesterday, it was already pricing things in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. And so it's the old buy the rumor sell the news deal. Some comments I had in there today were about positioning. We've seen this very large rotation from growth to value the last couple of days. Today is a big one again. The more the defensives are outperforming. And so people are rotating into quality and more defensive. That makes sense. When you look at other periods of time, particularly the year 2000 and the rotation that happened from growth to value then after the 90s

run up in growth. You had the start of that bubble peak was March of 2000. You had the Dow continue to go up for six more months. It was up 13 percent. The NASDAQ over that pretty time was down 20. So it's hard to say this time is the same as that. And I would go so far as to say it won't be because it's a different period of time. But nonetheless, just from a valuation and intrinsic valuation standpoint, it's just we just, it's so clear to us where money should be placed in this market. And we like the dividend sector so much more, some of the defensives. They're underloved, they're underowned. And I would go even so far as to say they might even be used as tax loss harvesting through the end of the year. You might even get some weakness through the end of the year. But then I

think at some point that further rotation from growth to value will continue. The other couple of points that I wanted to mention that are interesting to me are people don't realize that the one big beautiful bill that it wasn't that they lowered tax rates to provide an immediate benefit to W2 people that get a paycheck that have a lower. amount of tax withheld. That would have been immediate. What they did is they included things like salt increase, the state and local income tax increases. They gave child tax credit credits and they allowed for expensing on businesses and things. That doesn't take effect or did do anything until people file their returns. So what we're talking about is in February, call it, February,

March of next year coming into 2026, you're going to have these tax refunds start going in and they're going to pump into the economy. And what's estimated is something around $150 billion above of last year. Last year was around $359 billion. We're looking at more like 517 this year. That's a big deal. That's a lot of stimulus. On top of that, you still have the economy that's doing good things normally. And also, you now have an easing monetary policy. I could paint a positive picture in next year, but either way, I would be investing in what is intrinsically of value, which is, of course, what we do at the Monster Group. Question in there today was about AI fakes and stock market manipulation, is it still safe for the little guy, the average person who invest in the stock

market? Look, there's always going to be bad actors in the world, so they're going to exist and they'll get what's coming to them, I guess, is the nice way to put it. But that doesn't change the entire system. By and large, it is more liquid than it ever has been. The volume is more than it ever has been. And that means the price discovery of each different asset class and share that's traded is clearer that way. And so it's absolutely investable. And the market is efficient. This is the efficient market hypothesis that I read about in college. All of the known data is priced into these things, both good and bad. So yes, please watch out for fake AI, whatever you're going to get from a fraud perspective. That's a no-brainer. But that doesn't

mean that a market-based and free markets that is driven from human flourishing and ingenuity and productivity gain isn't investable because, of course, it always is. That's what I have for you today. I wish you well. If I don't speak to you, please have a lovely weekend. And I'll be back with you next week, but in the meantime, including Saturday and Sunday, reach out with your questions. We love them. Have a good night. Thank you. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with High Tower Securities LLC, member Finra and SIPC, and with High Tower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through High Tower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through High Tower Advisors LLC. This is not

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