The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - October 2, 2025

Episode Date: October 2, 2025

Daily Market Recap and Job Data Insights - October Update David Bahnsen provides a daily recap of the Dividend Cafe, highlighting that the market was up with the Dow gaining 79 points, the S&P up slightly by 4 points, and the NASDAQ increasing by 18 points. He mentions the bond market's rise with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points. Sector performances show materials leading while energy declines. Due to the government shutdown, key job reports were missing, but alternative data sources like the Chicago Federal Reserve jobless level and the Challenger Gray and Christmas report offer insights. The report indicates a 24% rise in layoffs year-to-date compared to 2024 and a low level of new hirings. David teases the upcoming Dividend Cafe episode with takeaways from the week's meetings and ends with a mention of supporting the Yankees. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:03 Sector Performance and Government Shutdown Impact 01:21 Job Market Data and Analysis 03:25 Upcoming Reports and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello and welcome to the daily recap of the Dividend Cafe. This is David Bonson as partner, Brian Saitel, is out in a meeting this afternoon with one of our money managers. So I'm doing the quick recap of the day. and markets were again up today, really not any kind of response or interest or reaction or drama at all about the government shutdown. The Dow was up 79 points, which is a whopping 17 basis points on a percentage basis. The S&P was basically flat. It was up four points, which is six basis points. So, you know, barely up. And then the NASDAQ was up 18 points, which is 0.39%, 39 basis points.

So all three indexes up, but again, not by a ton. The bond market was also up at the long end of the curve. The 10-year yield was down two basis points, closing below 4.09% in the 408s. So you had a little bit move higher in the bond market. And in terms of the stock market sector breakdown today, materials were the leading sector up over 1%, but then energy was down 1%. And it was close to half and half in terms of sectors that were up versus sectors that were down. The initial jobless claims number that comes every week on Thursday morning did not come today because of the government shutdown.

The monthly BLS number, the Bureau Labor Statistics, that comes the first Friday of every calendar month, will not come tomorrow because of the government shutdown. But what we did get today was a Chicago, Federal Reserve, jobless level, and the outplacement firm Challenger Gray and Christmas does a monthly report. So a lot of us that are data geeks are looking at substitute metrics that help provide some color on things while we await a return of certain governmental data. And, of course, these private reports are always complementary to the other reports anyways, the ADP being the most. most famous one that came yesterday. But the Challenger Great Christmas Report had year-to-date layoffs of 946,000, which is up 24% versus all of 2024. So you have a 24% increase in job layoffs in nine months versus what you had in 12 months last year. Now, the number in September was much better than it had been in August, but that's where we sit year-to-date on

layoffs. New hirings are only 205,000 on the year. That's the lowest level since 2009. So that theme of not a ton of firings, not a ton of hirings, 946,000 after nine months. You're talking about about 100,000 a month. So not great data, but not bottom falling, but also not likely to stay this way. Probably going to move one way or the other in this sort of muted level of hirings and firings. It's a theme I've talked about for a couple months now. The jobless level of the Chicago Fed came at a 4.34% nearly unchanged from last month, but confirming where the BLS number had come in last month. So that's the lay of the land on the jobs data. The markets on the day. We will have my normal dividend cafe for you each and every week that comes tomorrow

Friday. This week, I'm summarizing a few of the big themes that I am walking away from this week of relentless amounts of meetings with money managers from just certain key questions, consideration, takeaways. Look forward to being with you in the Dividy Cafe tomorrow Friday. Have a wonderful Thursday evening and go Yankees. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with High Tower Securities LLC, member Finra and SIPC, and with High Tower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through High Tower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through High Tower Advisors LLC. This is,

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