The Dividend Cafe - Thursday - September 17, 2026

Episode Date: September 17, 2026

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations and initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 versus 208,000, while housing starts and pending sales missed slightly. He addresses fears about AI by noting historical patterns of technology skepticism and euphoria, citing the 1990s productivity paradox and subsequent productivity surge. He also answers a question on $100+ oil alongside Fed hikes, saying it has not always signaled recession and that current expected rate increases are modest unless policy overdoes it. 00:00 Market Rebound Snapshot 00:26 Rates Oil And Rotation 00:57 Economic Data Check 01:47 AI Fear And History 03:06 Oil Fed And Recession 03:57 Wrap Up And Next Read Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you here this Thursday, September the 17th from our Newport Beach, California office here as I head out in a little while. But I wanted to record this at least before the market close, even though it's about 45 minutes or so early. But what we've got today is a rebound. The Dow is up over 300 points. S&P is up over a percent. Nasdaq is up about one and a half. And 10-year is down fairly dramatically again. That curve keeps flattening. We've got tens now under 5 percent at 495. So broadly risk assets. The other thing that was moving was oil, which abated prices moved a little bit lower. The rotation that we've seen is somewhat reversed. We've seen for the last several months, money coming out of 10. technology and moving into some of those other sectors. Today, we saw the rotation go the other way. In fact, the last couple of days, and you're actually seeing some of that stuff get bid again. And so the equal weight is underperforming the cap weighted index. If you look at what's going on in the economic calendar, it was three things.

It was the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that came out better than expected. That's a good thing for manufacturing. You've got initial jobless claims that were lower, another good, so we're two for two now. That was 196,000 versus 208. Anything under 200,000 for a week, by the way, is just historically very robust for the employment market. So keep that in mind, meaning not as many people filing for unemployment. And then you got housing starts, same old, same old. We missed on the starts, and then we also missed on pending sales.

We got a 0.3 positive, though, and we're expecting a 0.5. So I guess it isn't all that bad. But for the day on the economy, I'd say 2 out of 3, which, as I say, ain't bad. The topic there that I touched on a bit was about AI and the fear that is around it. There was news of it needing to be slowed down in order to put safeguards around it. And it's causing a lot of fear. Will it exterminate the human race? Things like this.

I just wanted to remind everyone that there's basically every single technology advancement in human history where there's fear associated with it because the human beings simply just fear what they don't understand and how things are going to play out. That all said, pretty much always, history has been fairly consistent with what it ultimately does for society and for the economy and for the market. For example, the naysayers in the mid-90s pointed to a productivity paradox, where computers were everywhere except for the productivity numbers themselves. That was right before productivity growth literally doubled from 1995 to 2004. So no one knows exactly how this cycle is going to play out, but the 90s taught us that both camps could be wrong at once.

The skeptists were wrong about the technology and the impact on productivity, and then the euphoric sort of shiny object chasers were wrong about the valuations that they paid. So I'm just asking, doesn't that sound a bit familiar to this current environment? I'd say that it does. The question that came in was about oil being over 100 at the same time as the Fed is raising rates. Doesn't that mean that we're going to hit a recession because of that? And the answer is, historically speaking, no, that hasn't always correlated. Again, often rates are being increased because the economy is doing well and prices are moving

higher. And oftentimes that can mean that commodity prices are moving higher along with the growth. So just keep that in mind. If they make a huge policy error and they overdo it, sure, it can cause a recession. The history speaks to that too. But my point is just at 25 basis points at a time. And the current starting point is just not something I'm saying. seeing so far. And really what's priced into dot plots and what's being spoken about is a modest

amount of rate increase is not something that is going to double Fed funds or anything like that. So those are my comments on that question for today. But that's what I have for you. And I'll be back with you next week. There's a lovely and really great dividend cafe for your inbox for tomorrow that David wrote on the Fed and Fed policy. And so you should try to read that if you can. Otherwise, I'll be back with you next week. Enjoy your weekend. And we'll see you next time on the dividend cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment. investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC.

Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free risk. There is no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities, referenced to Rian, will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities, reference TIRI,

and may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. The Bonsor Group in Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims

and make no, express, or implied, representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date reference. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.

This document was created for informational purposes only that opinions expressed are solely those of the Bonson Group and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors LSC or any of its affiliates. High tower advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client's individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for any related questions.