The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - July 29, 2025

Episode Date: July 29, 2025

Market Recap: Modest Moves and Economic Indicators - July 29th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on market movements for Tuesday, July 29th. The S&P 500 ended its six-day winning streak with a slight decline while the Dow and Nasdaq saw modest changes. The bond market experienced a decrease in 10-year yields, and there are emerging expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September. The episode also covers recent economic updates including better-than-expected consumer confidence, in-line job openings, and a slight dip in the Case-Shiller home price index. Brian also discusses the topic of corporate trustees in estate planning and the upcoming FOMC meeting and employment data releases. The day was relatively quiet overall, with marginal market movements. Listeners are encouraged to reach out with questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:41 Economic Indicators and Predictions 01:14 Consumer Confidence and Job Market 02:03 Housing Market Update 02:39 Corporate Trustee Discussion 03:18 Upcoming Events and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, July the 29th. Brian Sightel with you here and a bit of a down day here in markets, although they've been up here at least on the S&P 500 for six days in a row. So we took a little breather today. Dow was down 204 points.

S&P was down about a third of a percent. NASDAQ was up a little more than a third of a percent. So modest move on the day. Decent move at the bond market. We actually had 10 year yields dropped by nine basis points. So we closed at 432 on 10 tens and slowly but surely you're getting lower interest rates that are getting priced in here to overall yield curves. Fed funds futures are now predicting more like a two thirds chance

for a September rate cut. We really just been oscillating around, you know, call it 50 50 and in that number for some time. But now with bigger tariff deals getting done, think Japan, think India, think EU and lower inflation numbers and also very slight weakening numbers in inflation and housing, you're just getting a higher probability for a sooner than later on where rates are going to go. And again, I think markets today were largely just awaiting tomorrow's FOMC meeting. But with that, let's see, there was a few pieces of news in the economic calendar. We had consumer

confidence that was out better than expected. We got a 97.2 versus a 95.5. Those numbers are probably arbitrary for you and for most, but just ahead of expectations, it would be the takeaway there. Again, consumer confidence often is more of a lagging indicator than a forward looking indicator. Because it's a survey basically about what humans just went through. But so take it for what it is. We had a new job openings number, which is the Joltz figure we talk about for the month of June that was in line with consensus at 7.4 million.

Although what I've been writing about in the last couple of months of these numbers is more of the 7.7 range. So this has come down here a little bit. I don't know if I'd call it a weakening labor picture, but I suppose slightly so. And then on the housing side, you had the K. Schiller home price index that was down for the month of May by 0.2%. And almost every month for the past couple of years, you had some weakness in 2022, but most of the monthly figures have been positive in the year

over year numbers have been in the four to 6% range. Year over year now is in the 2.8%. So you are seeing home prices slow down a little bit. That's good for a lot of reasons. It's good to just normalize housing. It's gone up here for several years since COVID and the affordability index is just basically at all time lows on the affordability index. The question in there today was about a corporate trustee. These things come up really often. People have living trusts. Oftentimes they'll have their kids in there as successor trustee.

And that's easy and fine. There's other times where family dynamics are different and you've got different situations with people's children. Many of you've got just different types of trusts in different locations of them. Whether they're revocable or irrevocable, whether they're in different states, whether they're multi-generational can require a more professionalized and corporate solution on the trustee space. And yes, we have several solutions for it.

Again, depends on the needs and the situation. Tomorrow will be the FOMC conclusion of their meeting and you'll have some employment data that will come out towards the end of this week on private payrolls and then the employment report that we'll get at the very end of the week, along with some University of Michigan sentiment figures. But with that, today was fairly quiet, marginally lower, and I'm gonna let you go for this evening. Reach out with your questions as always and I shall talk to you soon. Thank you very much. The Bonson Group is a group of investment

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