The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - June 16, 2026

Episode Date: June 16, 2026

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO. 00:00 Market Recap Overview 00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot 01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence 02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally 03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals 04:07 What Drawdown Means 05:02 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Hello, welcome to the daily recap of Dividendon Cafe. I'm David Bonson. Brian Sightel is out this week, out of the country, as a matter of fact. So I get to handle this podcast the next few days, and I get to do that in the midst of a lot of fun in the markets. You had today, Tuesday, June 16th, a Dow that was up 329 points, which was 64 basis points to the upside, coming off of yesterday's rally yesterday. But then you had an S&P that was down over half a percentage point and a NASDAQ that was down 1.15%. So a very different day today in which tech, the kind of big tech, AI, type, names all went down. Energy mostly continued going down, although not all of it. Oil prices were

down another four and a half percent. As I'm talking now, WTI crude is $77. But you saw a really big rally in a lot of the financials, banks, asset managers, a good rally in some of the health care names. So just a mixed bag in markets, but much more favorable to what has been rotationally more favorable most of the last two to three weeks other than the Monday exception. So that was the status in the market today. I do want to cover one other thing about yesterday's market while I still have you. But first, let me just make clear on the bond side that the tenure was down three basis points. The yield dropped to 4.437%. So you got a little bit more upside in bonds, yet that did not carry into some benefit for the big cap growth tech side of things.

And so I don't know that I want to call it a weird day, but it wasn't a day that fits in a lot of clean narratives. But technology down 2.3%, the NASDAQ down 1.1. That's certainly the big story. And yet you did get a really robust move in financials, one and a half percent, which is largely why the Dow was up so much. So when I mentioned yesterday's rally, There was a lot of narratives that, oh, they announced over the weekend that Iran deal, straight-of-form moves rally. Oil was down 4%. But look, yesterday bond yields didn't move.

It was a very mixed response across various sectors. Those that are sensitive to oil prices, you saw some go up like airlines, but you saw others go down like consumer stocks. The non-oil commodity-sensitive stocks did not rally. And if everything was about straight-and-form moves, you would have expected a broader commodity-oriented rally. Really, what you saw yesterday was actually that basic standard cyclical. Let's get back on that AI tech trade rally. That's what it was.

I don't think it was really all that connected to Iran, Hermuz. It was more of the momentum side and then that itself reversed here today. When you see the market fundamental tension being that between AI tech momentum, the valuations that exist there, and things that are a bit more fundamental and traditional, such as reits and health care and industrials and consumer staples, that I think is where your mind ought to be about what is going on within the market, not the headline or the response to headline, the market response to headline, about Iran and Hormuz.

I really do believe those things were basically priced in for most of the last two to three months. As for what ends up playing out here in the AI tech versus the rotational competition of more fundamental parts of the economy and more broad-based traditional components, I do believe we're looking at that which is popular where markets where certain investors are voting versus the just fundamental weighing. And that's where valuations matter. And that's where I think you know where we stand. Someone did ask, by the way, the Ask TBG sitting at the homepage. at dividend cafe.com, what I meant by first year maximum drawdown. Drawdown is a very, very familiar vernacular in our world, but I always want to do a better job in defining terms. I used it in the dividend cafe on Friday about IPO mania. Drawdown is basically the most

stock was down from its highest point to its lowest point in whatever the period is you're evaluating. It could be a calendar year. In this case, it says first year, and that was the reference to the first year of a company's IPO. So after an IPO in its first year, what was the largest drawdown, meaning the highest point it went to the lowest point, and that language of drawdown could be used in other contexts as well or other time periods, et cetera.

But that's what the investment vocabulary is. I'm going to let you go there. I'll be back with you tomorrow, handling myself the Daily Recap. Reach out with any questions. questions at the Bonson Group.com anytime. Thanks for listening to Daily Recap and Divida Cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with

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