The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - June 24, 2025

Episode Date: June 24, 2025

Market Recap and Investment Wisdom from the Dividend Cafe In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel to provide a comprehensive market update. The major market indices, including the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, all saw significant gains, while the bond market experienced slight increases. The technology sector led the gains with a 1.6% rise, followed closely by financials, whereas the energy sector lagged behind. A notable drop in oil prices was observed, attributed to geopolitical factors involving a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. David concludes with a critical piece of investment advice: timing the market based on current events is futile and can lead to significant losses. 00:00 Introduction and Host Change 00:35 Market Recap: Major Indices Surge 00:55 Bond Market Movements 01:20 Sector Performance Highlights 01:42 Oil Price Plunge: Geopolitical Factors 02:16 Ceasefire Impact on Markets 02:42 Investment Wisdom: Avoid Market Timing 03:58 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to The Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello. Welcome to The Dividend Cafe. If the voice doesn't sound familiar, it's because it's me, David Bonson, and you're used to me on Mondays and Fridays in The Dividend Cafe. My partner, Brian Seitelitel normally brings you the daily blurb after market on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, but I am pinch hitting for Brian myself today

because he is on an airplane and I am here at our Grand Rapids, Michigan office where I just got done giving a speech and Brian's going to be joining me for some meetings tomorrow. But in the meantime, markets were open and boy, were they active today. Quick recap, the Dow was up over 500 points, 1.2%. The S&P was right there behind it up 1.1%. The NASDAQ at 1.4%. So very substantial moves in risk assets over 1% across all three major market indices. On the bond market, slight gains in the short end and long end. The two-year treasury yield was down one basis point to 3.82. The 10-year was down two basis points to 4.3%. Keep in mind when the yield is dropping, that means the prices are higher. So a move higher in stocks substantially, a move higher in bonds marginally. The top performing sector in the

market today was technology up 1.6, but financials were right there with it up 1.5. The only sector really down today was energy, and it was down 1.5, and it was down yesterday quite a bit too, but oil was down about 9% yesterday, and it was down another 5% today. I want you to think about that. Oil closed today at $65 a barrel. Sunday night, when I went to bed, it was at $77 a barrel. That is just absolutely unprecedented in 48 hours to have oil drop $12 a barrel when there was no economic reason. It was entirely geopolitical, and this is entirely a relief move in response to what seems to be a lack of retaliation from Iran as it pertains to the U.S. decimating

its nuclear capability. So the markets today responding to the appearance of an agreement for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. There was a little hubbub this morning that some missiles were already in the air and you know what are you supposed to do when missiles are already in the air but fire some missiles of your own? It got President Trump upset, but it did seem to kind of stabilize and risk assets rallied throughout the day.

The what's on David's mind in your daily email, I'm just going to quickly recap for you. This is just another indicator, another reinforcer, another validator of a permanently evergreen, but absolutely paramount investment truism. Trying to time your way around current events is what fools do. It is futile. It can't be done. Trying to guess what was going to happen with US action in Iran or what Iran's retaliation was going to be or what Israel would do next or what US would do after that.

Or even if you go back a couple months to what exactly the trade war issue was going to be or what it wasn't going to be or what the president's response would be. All of those things are impossible to predict, impossible to time, impossible to know, and even if you did, trying to forecast what markets were going to do in response to those things is impossible. And I am not going to stop repeating this because there are too many people who aren't going to stop trying to do what can't be done. And what happens when investors try to do what can't be done is they get their faces

ripped off. We are four investors holding onto their faces at the Bonson Group. Therefore, we oppose such foolish and futile market timing behavior. Thank you for listening to The Dividing Cafe. Brian will be back with you from Grand Rapids, Michigan tomorrow, Wednesday. Have a wonderful evening. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC member FINRA and SIPC, with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No

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