The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - June 3, 2025

Episode Date: June 3, 2025

Positive Market Updates and Key Economic Indicators - June 3rd Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from the Newport Beach office of The Bahnsen Group on the market's positive performance on June 3rd, despite initially lower futures. The DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all saw gains. There was a minor decline in bond prices with a slight rise in yields. Key economic updates included an optimistic report on new job openings, which exceeded expectations, indicating employer confidence despite recent volatility. Conversely, factory orders fell slightly more than expected. The episode also touches on Elon Musk's criticism of a congressional spending bill and outlines the implications for government spending and debt. Upcoming employment reports are highlighted as significant data points to watch. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:37 Economic Indicators and Job Market Insights 01:26 Factory Orders and Economic News 01:53 Elon Musk's Reaction to Congressional Spending Bill 02:59 Debt to GDP Ratio Discussion 04:13 Upcoming Employment Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, June the 3rd. Brian Seitel with you here from our Newport Beach, California office, our HQ here at the Bonson Group on an update on markets. The futures were actually lower coming into the open. So we turned things around, closed higher in markets.

The Dow was up 214 points on the day. The S&P was up a little over half of a percent and the NASDAQ was up eight tenths of a percent. So positive day in equities. A little bit of weakness in bond prices with yields slightly higher. Ten year was up a basis point at 446. Not a ton in the economic calendar. A couple of pieces of news out. There was new job openings, which is the Joltz number that we watch a lot.

Great sign as a forward looking indicator on the employment market and the labor market and the economy as a whole. And it was ahead of consensus. So we got 7.4 million in April. We were thinking it was going to be more closer to 7.2, 7.1, and that was up from the month prior. So positive signs there in new job openings. That's a sign of confidence in the economy.

Obviously employers wouldn't be posting to hire new people if they were not confident about the future of their own business. And actually that's right in April too. So if you think about what transpired from April, beginning of April through the end, all the volatility, all the talk around tariffs, corporate America kept moving along and kept hiring. So those are positive things. On the flip side, I suppose to that on factory orders for the same month, which

was April, they were down a little bit more than expected down 3.7%. That's almost all transportation related. And we were expecting negative three, so negative 3.7. I don't know if it is that far out of line necessarily, but that's the couple of pieces of news on the economic side of things. We were going to write a little bit more about the big, beautiful bill and what has gone through the House and now into the Senate. But then we got a tweet and a headline from Elon Musk that we thought was relevant just because of his removal from the White House and then back towards

his independent private businesses. But he basically said, I'm going to quote this here to not mess it up, but I'm going to quote it. I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore. This massive outrageous pork-filled congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it. You know, you did wrong.

You know it. Look, I don't know if that was coordinated necessarily by the president. I doubt it. It doesn't look like that it was. And so maybe this is a dividing point between the two fellows. I don't know the answer to that, but nonetheless, it's going to definitely put a feather in the cap of the fiscal hawks as they are in the Senate now going through the bill and seeing how they're going to adjust it and what revisions need to be made. Rest assured, the tax cuts for 2017 are in no way in jeopardy. They're going to get extended one way or the other. It's about the other items in there as well.

We'll see how that will come through the Senate. I'm sure there'll be plenty of revisions, so I don't know that it's worthwhile of delving into this or that until we get more information out of it The question there today was about debt to GDP ratio in total and then what is owed to the public? So essentially 123 percent is the total debt to GDP But just remember about 23 percent of that is owed internally meaning Federal Reserve holds it So one part of the government owing the other part where interest payments are returned to Treasury counts a little less, I guess, is the best way I could put that.

There's 100% that's owed to the public. Not saying that is a good number. I'm just saying that I think that's a more apples to apple metric on how we can historically look at things and compare to other countries and other times. With those things, obviously debt to GDP is a big factor and the intention of cutting government spending, raising tax revenue through tariffs,

and trying to broaden the tax base through deregulation, and through some tax easement and tax cuts there for middle class, at least that's the goal. You can argue with the style or the approach, but I don't know that too many would argue those are good things, raising revenue, broadening the economy, growing the economy and trying to cut spending are all pretty logical and positive things at least to endeavor to achieve. So all that said today, I'm going to let you go this evening there. I'll be back with you tomorrow, which will be Wednesday.

We'll have an ADP private payroll number out on Wednesday. We actually have the non-farm payroll out and unemployment rate on Friday. So that'll be the bigger number to watch. So a lot of employment data out today, but Jolt's new job openings were positive, generally speaking. So employment keeps hanging in there just fine. So with that, I shall let you go. I wish you a lovely evening. Please reach out with your questions as always. Thank you. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC member FINRA and SIPC with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor

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