The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - June 9, 2026

Episode Date: June 9, 2026

Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach on a volatile market stretch driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, renewed tech weakness, and Middle East uncertainty. The Dow rose 86 points while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, as equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted by over 100 bps and the 10-year yield fell to 4.52%. He notes the tech sector’s nine-week 47% rally is seeing froth and sharp daily swings, alongside widening market breadth and sector rotation. Szytel urges investors to focus on fundamentals rather than popularity and dismisses warnings of simultaneous “cycle” peaks as largely unknowable and hindsight-driven. Economic updates include slightly softer NFIB optimism (still near historical average), a narrower April trade deficit to $55B, and existing home sales up 3.2% to about 4.2M. 00:00 Market Rollercoaster Recap 01:18 Tech Selloff And Rotation 02:16 Stick With Fundamentals 03:16 Ray Dalio Cycle Warnings 04:45 Quick Economic Calendar 05:39 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host here this evening on Tuesday, June the 9th from our West Palm Beach, Florida office here on a downday overall in markets. And it's been a bit of a roller coaster, really, the last couple of days. You had the big move lower on Friday because, lo and behold, we added more jobs. we expected, and so markets were upset that maybe rates will go up a little bit versus down, and also you had some myths and earnings from some of the chip names, and so the tech sector sold off big on Friday. Then you had recovery on Monday with all that stuff moving back up about half as

much as it moved down, and then today you got a further downside to the tech narrative, and so the equal weight SMP on the day outperform the cap-weighted SMP by over 100 basis points. So back and forth in this technology deal, and you're starting to see the Dow slowly but surely catch up to the other two indices of the S&P and the NASDAQ on the year. What you saw on the day was the Dow up 86 points, the SMP 500 down one quarter of a percent, and the NASDAQ down a full 1%. You did have interest rates move lower on the day. The 10-year was down for almost five basis points. We closed at 452. So what's going on here?

There's part of the market, which has done really well. And again, if you remember what we wrote about a day or two ago, the technology rally that we've seen in the last nine weeks is up 47 percent and is the most biggest move for one sector of all time in that period of time, including tech of the 1999-2000 era. So some of that stuff is coming off. Some of those names are overvalued and there's volatility, meaning that they're going up and down five to 10 percent per day.

So if you can catch them on a good day, then more power to you. And I suppose not own them on the down days. That would be a heck of a trading strategy, but it's really not very realistic. But that's what's going on in markets right now. We're digesting what's happening in the Middle East. We're dealing with some overvalued and some frothiness in the tech sector. There is some breadth widening inside of sector rotation inside the market the past week. And I believe that will be ongoing, but not linear.

So it'll come and go. I would mention that there still is these things happening. And inside of that, what I believe is more important is for you to ask yourself, what is your investment philosophy? If it really is to try to capture what is popular at cocktail parties and went up a bunch last year and own a venture capital fund or pre-IPO shares of something because it's popular without looking at what the actual fundamentals are, then I think that the philosophy itself should be rethought.

And if it's unpopular for a short period of time and you're less cool at the cocktail party, that'll be fine. Talk to everyone a year from now and how things have played out. Because ultimately, things do revert to fundamentals. It's just a matter of when. It's not if. Whether that's in three months or whether it's in 20 months, I don't know. But nonetheless, you've worked hard to save your money and to just forget fundamentals to put it at risk for the sake of it, I think is foolish. All that said, the question today was,

was about, and I'm actually going to read it here because I think it's better that way. So the question is, Ray Dalio and others have been publicly warning that we're approaching a confluence of long-term cycles, debt, geopolitical, domestic, political conflict, etc., all peaking simultaneously and all pointing towards a major disruption. And the question basically is asking, is that true? And how do we navigate it? And ultimately, are these cycles indifferent to whether we see them coming or not? So the answer is I think that they're all a bit silly, frankly. To say that all of those things are some sort of a set path and then they're in a cycle and they're all going to come to fruition at the same time and cause some big change is fine.

It's taking a coin and flipping it in the air and then calling heads and maybe being right. It doesn't necessarily mean that you're prophetic. It means that you got lucky. So I guess if you keep saying things that could happen and they will for this reason or that reason and then they do, you might sell a lot of books. They might look smart. But really, that stuff is unknowable. and it's unpredictable. So I think that those things are a bit silly and really changes in secular,

changes in history and such are always clear with hindsight, but aren't necessarily predictive and predictable. There were a few things in the economic calendar. Two things. One, you had the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey just lower than expected, but right at the historical average. And then you had the trade deficit for the month of April actually narrow a little bit to a stunning 55 billion. I guess you can call that good news. March was 56 billion. There is some help from some oil exports, but by and large, there's still quite a bit of a trade deficit. And then last thing you had was the existing home sales. They were actually up 3.2% for the month. That was above estimates. That puts us right around 4.2 million. We were expecting about 4 million. So, you know,

it's nice to see housing perk up just a little bit. But that's what I have for you on the economic side for the day and for today's Dividend Cafe podcast. I appreciate you listening. Look forward to to being back with you again tomorrow. Have a good evening. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC member FINRA and SIPC and with Hightower Advisors LLC. A registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free risk. There's no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced

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