The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - March 17, 2026

Episode Date: March 17, 2026

Brian Szytel reports modestly positive markets from The Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach office: the Dow rose 46 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.5%, and the 10-year yield fell 2 bps to 4.20% after trading in a 4.15%–4.30% range. Economic data were light, with February pending home sales notably stronger than expected, possibly reflecting slightly lower mortgage rates and pent-up demand. He previews upcoming PPI data and the Fed’s meeting conclusion, expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, while watching potential dot-plot changes amid new geopolitical developments. He addresses three market concerns—war with Iran, private credit default fears, and slowing AI capex—and explains fiduciary duty versus broker suitability standards. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:41 Housing Data Snapshot 01:15 Fed Meeting Preview 01:39 Three Market Worries 01:56 Iran War Pricing 02:49 Private Credit Fears 03:51 AI Capex Reality Check 04:27 What Fiduciary Means 05:19 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Good evening. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. I'm Brian Saitel, your host for this evening. Speaking to you here from our Newport Beach, California office here at the Bonson Group, on a day that was positive overall in markets, but marginally so. We actually ended up closing just off of the lows for the day. So markets gave back earlier gains. but we ended up positive on the Dow by 46 points. S&P was up a quarter of a percent. NASDAQ was up almost a half of a percent. So there's your stocks.

On bonds, we lost two basis points on 10 years, so we closed at 420. 10-year yields have been trading right around this range of 415 to 430 at the highest. As far as the economic data on the day, there was not a lot of information. We got a pending home sales for the month of February that was significantly better than expected. So there is a chance that some slightly lower mortgage rates

are causing some unthawing of housing. That and just the pent-up demand and the fact that it's been stuck here for, call it, five years, with rates having moved up 500 basis points from their 0% lows. So some of that activity, I think, is definitely a good thing. It's a big part of the economy. But that's all there was in the economic calendar. Tomorrow we're going to have two things out, which are more important, which is the PPI number and then the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting.

And it's widely expected they're going to leave rates unchanged at 350 to 375. But it'll be interesting to note where some of the dot plot changes may occur now that there's this new geopolitical event for them to put into their calculus. As far as some of the comments that David wrote about today, really there's three major concerns for the market right now. There's the war with Iran. There is fear over private crime. credit and there is a change in the appetite for AI capital expenditure. So if we break all of those

things down, if you talk about the war in Iran, then our take here is that while it won't be ending tomorrow, it also won't be some sort of forever war. I don't think the market has irrationally priced that in. It's not likely for many reasons. I don't know that the market is necessarily priced in the fact that it is a war to begin with. It's almost a campaign at this point. Those things can change, and that's certainly not making light of any of the human element of what's going on here at all. So I'm just telling you where markets are pricing things in on the war side. So most likely to end at some point not be a forever war, and as far as the timing, TBD, all of those things markets are anticipating net priced and I think fairly adequately,

which is to say that markets haven't really moved that much lower. The Dow is down maybe six, 7% or so from the highs. It's negative on the year by about 2.5%. That's not a huge move. Okay, next topic, private credit. So I think that the idea of just a wave of massive defaults is frankly just silly. I understand the media headlines and the popularity of New York Times and Wall Street Journal writing articles about potential defaults, but just understand it's a percentage of the entirety of the market. You're talking about sub-5% on non-accrual. So, that is not enough for me to be concerned. The fact that there's retail ownership in the space and probably irrationally, meaning that there is too much retail ownership in a space that is supposed to be

for accredited investors only. But there is more selling going on and that selling is causing gated redemptions. That's to protect the value of the loans that are inside the portfolio, nothing else. So that said, is there some contagion effect that when you have people hitting the sell button can cause some price deterioration? Sure. But do I think it's even mid-single? digits. At this point, no. Could you get a few single points out of it potentially? But we'll see how that unfolds. For now, it isn't something that is keeping me up at night at all. Okay, AI. So this is going to definitely be multi-pronged in the answer. So are the hyperscalers going to continue to be able to spend as they have been? No. Are they going to spend zero? No, they're going to continue

to spend, but just at a slowing delta. And that's fine. The reality is with valuations trading where they are, is that priced in, is that declining growth rate in CAPEX priced into models? And then the other part is just the ROI associated with all the CAPEX. When does that start to actually pencil for the investment that has been made? So that's an ongoing question markets have for the AI space. So there's your three topics. Question in there is about what does it mean for an advisor to be a fiduciary? So the difference is brokers are recommending investments that are suitable, not necessarily in the best interest, but they are suitable. And because they get paid from the investment company in the brokerage house versus the clients that they're recommending

these investments for, that makes sense. They've got a duty of care, but it's just for suitability. The fiduciary is legally obligated to put client's interests first, and of course, the only way that the fiduciary can get paid is by a debit from the client account. So the client is paying directly for the advice. The advisor is unable to earn any money or any income or any compensation or have any conflict from a brokerage firm, from a custodian, from an investment house, house or from anything else, makes it pretty clean and straightforward. Like you would pay an attorney to provide you legal advice. Same thing. You would pay a fiduciary financial advisor to provide you financial advice. There you have it for today. I'll be back with you again tomorrow. And like I said, there'll

be more to chew through in the economic calendar. With that, I wish you a lovely evening. Thanks so much. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investor process is free of risk. There is no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced

TIRAN will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities, referenced TIRAN, may not be suitable for all investors. data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. The Bonsor Group in Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no express or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements

or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced here in. The data and information are provided as of the date reference. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only that opinions expressed are solely those of the Bonson Group and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors LSC or any of its affiliates. High Tower advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client's individual circumstances and can change at any time without notice.

Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for any related questions.