The Dividend Cafe - Tuesday - November 11, 2025

Episode Date: November 11, 2025

Market Recap and Economic Insights - November 11, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian zyitel reviews the market performance and key economic updates for Tuesday, November 11, 2025. The Dow closed up 559 points, driven by positive sentiment around the impending government reopening. Brian discusses the historical impact of government shutdowns on the market and the expected release of crucial economic data like CPI and jobless claims. He addresses a question about evaluating growth stocks against benchmarks and emphasizes the importance of long-term planning over short-term performance. The episode also includes a note on Veterans Day and the bond market closure. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:34 Government Reopening and Market Implications 01:32 Economic Data and Market Predictions 03:37 Q&A: Benchmarking Growth Stocks 05:02 Closing Remarks and Veterans Day Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome back in to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, November the 11th, 1111, 25. Brian Zitel with you here. And good to be back with you. After last week being out with the team in Dallas, we had a couple of days of meetings and very fruitful and productive. and just good to get all the team together. So we're coming back, feeling energized and ready to work for you. Today was an update in market, so that always helps. He actually had the Dow close up 559 points on the day, so a decent move higher. And that was actually after yesterday's big move higher as well,

and it was all predicated on the government reopening. We don't have the final votes through Congress yet, but we should get them by tomorrow. And that should bode well, obviously, to take some of that risk off the table and get things functioning again the way they should be for people to travel around the country, for people that are on assisted, living to have the care and support that they need and everyone in the government get paid, all that good stuff. So markets are feeling a little bit better here as we finish off the last couple of days

into middle of the week. Look, at this point, there is a track record of about 50, maybe even more than that, going back to probably 80 years now. If you look back in time, the government has shut down something like 11 times. If you look at an average over the past 50 years, the market has actually been higher by about 3%, 65% of the time after two months following the government shutdown. So that's not to say that's what's going to happen this time. It's just to say that the setup here is fairly constructive as we head into the end of the year. The nice thing, too, about the government reopening is, remember, we haven't been getting data for about 41 days now.

So call it CPI, different jobless claims number, all the BLS data on employment. that stuff that comes from the government that market participants really pay a lot of attention to, it hasn't been any. So as this stuff starts to come out now, it'll be interesting to see what part of the market may need to reprice. And my sense is just given where inflation numbers have started to come in, which is on the lower end, especially on that shelter component inside of inflation, that if you get lower inflation and we know that the jobless claims are going to be a little weak because we still get an ADP weekly read that is showing. towards the end of October, there was some shedding of jobs, and that was obviously because

of government shutdown. And so if you get a little weaker numbers on employment, you get a little lower numbers on inflation. It's going to move the Fed futures to be a higher percentage chance of more rate cuts, and it's also going to start to move interest rates a little lower. So when you look at markets being priced as expensive as they are, you get a lower interest rate paradigm, and then you get some rationalization to some degree of it. It's not a perfect scenario and a perfect setup, I could just see some of those things happening here, at least over the next couple of weeks. We still have a couple of months before there, or at least six weeks before the end of the year. Some of the stuff will change, but that's what I'm seeing on my screen

today. I wanted to talk about it a little bit. In the economic calendar down the day, there really wasn't a ton. There was an NFIB, a small business optimism survey that was basically in line with projections. It was slightly lower than last month, but just let's call it in line. And then he had that like I said, that ADP weekly claim number that was showing a loss of 11,250 on the jobs side, you'll get an official read of CPI. The government is supposedly open through Congress as of tomorrow, which is Wednesday, and then you should get a CPI read before the end of the week. That number will be heavily watched, and we'll be watching that too. So that's what you have on the Daily Market Recap for today. There was a question that came in about really related

the benchmarks. And I wrote about this a few weeks ago, but he was asking about a growth sleeve in the equity component. How do you know if it's doing well over time? And wouldn't you compare it to the benchmark to just understand if it's good or bad? And if it's bad for years and years on end, wouldn't that upturn a financial plan result? So first, if someone's got the risk and the timeline appropriate for that sleeve, great. And we do that for most clients. Okay. But it should be sized appropriately so that if the short-term performance is four or negative or something because there's more volatility, it's not completely derailing a financial plan over the long term. So that's number one. Number two, this would be set up

on our end with bottom up analysis. It's not an index. It's not going to own 400 names or 1,000 names in the index. It's going to be selective. It'll be higher conviction. And so that's just different than the index. So you can compare it against that, but it's a different animal. And so it would be a little apples to oranges. I think it's fine for an overall just litmus test of, hey, what are gross stocks doing? What are my gross stocks doing? Even though they're different. that's fine. But I just don't think it should be the arbiter of success or failure, meaning this year index was up 10. I'm only up 9, so I hate it and let's sell it. Or the opposite the next year. Mine was up 12 and that was only up 10. So I love it. Let's double down.

People do that and that's normal and I don't think it's appropriate and it's not what we do. So that was my point to that part of the Q&A. I hope that's helpful to you. Look, it wasn't a huge day from a data standpoint. It was Veterans Day and thank you for all those veterans out there for your service. But other than that, we had the bond market close on the day. And so some of these days where stocks are open, bonds are closed, it's a little wonky. You don't get a lot of action. And I felt like that was the case today. I'll be back with you tomorrow and reach out with your questions, as you always do. I appreciate them. If I don't speak to you, have a great night. Thanks again. Bye-bye.

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