The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - April 1, 2026

Episode Date: April 1, 2026

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on April 1, noting a positive market day with the S&P up about 0.5% and the NASDAQ up nearly 0.8% while the 10-year yield is around 4.32%. He attributes improved sentiment to a robust rally tied to Iran-related news and expectations of a potentially positive announcement from President Trump. He emphasizes the need for objective, non-politicized asset allocation focused on markets and the economy rather than geopolitical prognostication. Addressing a common question, he explains why Middle East disruptions can raise U.S. oil prices: oil is a global commodity and U.S. refineries are geared toward heavier Brent crude even though the U.S. produces much light sweet crude, with about one-third of consumption imported. He highlights stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls, February retail sales, and an ISM manufacturing beat, keeping both services and manufacturing in expansion. 00:00 Market Open And Q2 Kickoff 00:33 Iran Headlines And Trump Update 01:05 Staying Objective As Investors 02:41 Why Oil Prices Rise Globally 04:00 Key Economic Data Beats 04:54 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening on the first day of April and the first day of the second quarter. And wow did Q1 fly by. But here we are. A lot has transpired. And we've got a positive market day overall today. I am recording this about half an hour before the close for travel purposes.

but we've got S&P up about half of a percent and NASDAQ up almost eight-tenths of a percent on the day. Ten year is unchanged, we're at 432. So bond land is very quiet, but markets generally are feeling good, and this is after a very robust rally yesterday that ended the first quarter, and all of it was around Iran news and an end near and an end in sight, potentially. And then tonight we've got an announcement or a special announcement from President Trump, about development and the odds of it being a positive comment and or potentially a victorious one and or one that has an end detailed or higher than not. And so that's why you have markets

feeling a little better today. So we'll take that. Again, these things, as we look at them, one of the things that we wanted to focus on today, and David did a really nice job writing this piece. And I know you're listening to me in this podcast and I appreciate it very much. I would encourage any of you that can read the written as well. But essentially it's our job as asset allocators and money managers to look at the world in an objective way. We have our own political bias and things, but what we see in the media and what we hear in punditry is very tilted and very politicized. And it's our job to make sure that we're not doing that and to invest and to deal with things as they are and not what otherwise we hope to be based on those other views. And of

course we're looking for an American victory. That's what we want. We want a safer world and all those things, but that is devoid from necessarily politics. And I think that's an important distinction here from the way that we're looking at it and the way that we're speaking about it. It has nothing to do with our center or left type of viewpoints on at all. But there's a lot of that's going on as really a geopolitical conversation and we're less call it. We aren't paid for, I guess, that type of prognostication. But as it relates to the economy and certainly as it relates to markets, that's what you do pay us for, and that's what we obsess over. And those two things are distinctive. And I suspect this time around how things will play out on

the geopolitical landscape, both short and made it long term, is a much harder task to accomplish talking about accurately and predicting than looking at things in the markets and the economy. And so maybe we have the easier side of that equation this go around. But that all said, the topic in the question section today was one that has come. up often. I would say more than five and less than 10 at least in my inbox alone. I'm sure David has the same. But it's about why this closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption in the Middle East causes the US oil price to go up. And those two things are different. And since we produce so much of it, why isn't there an ability for us to mitigate the

raising prices here domestically? The reality is that's true. We do produce a lot of it through fracking, but that's all light sweet and our refiners are meant on refining the heavier brent crude, and so that's what we import. That said, we still do produce two-thirds of what we consume. It's just the remaining third is what is imported for those reasons. A lot of it's imported from Canada and Mexico over the Middle East, but nonetheless, it's a global commodity, and so prices are set around the world, and I know that's a simplified answer, and I understand why that would cause people to ask more questions, but that's the truth of it. There are nuances, the refining capabilities, and then frankly,

it's like a currency. So it's all tethered together with everything else around the world. So good question in there today. And if there are more needed color or other questions, I encourage you to reach out to us so that we can follow up with them. But there were three pieces of economic news out in the calendar today that are meaningful and also added to today's market. One, you've got ADP private payrolls much better than expected at 62,000 versus 39,000. So that's good. Two, you've got February a retail sales, this was a delayed report, but nonetheless, it was a tenth better than expected, and as it's a big factor, and how GDP and the economy is calibrated and run, and a tenth better on that at 0.6 is positive. And then third, you had an ISM manufacturing number that was ahead of

projections. We had 52.7 versus 52.1. So that seems like a modest beat, but it's actually meaningful. When you have over 50, it's expansionary, and that's good. And then the third thing I would say is you basically have both services and manufacturing in expansion territory right now. And so generally speaking, that's a very positive thing for the economy. With that, I'm going to let you go this evening. This podcast will conclude the midweek Dividend Cafe, but we've got the final longer version coming out to you tomorrow. It's going to come out a day early because, of course, Friday we're closed as our markets for Good Friday.

And so you'll have your long-form dividend cafe in your inbox tomorrow. With that, I will let you go short and sweet. have a good evening, reach out with questions. Take care. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy ourselves securities.

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