The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - April 15, 2026

Episode Date: April 15, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps an up day in markets amid a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P closing up 0.8% at new highs, the Nasdaq up 1.5% in a tech-led rally, and the Dow down 72 points; the 10-year yield rose about three basis points to 4.28%. He notes markets are increasingly pricing in some resolution to the U.S.–Iran situation as a blockade takes effect and negotiations progress. Sector moves included strength in AI/tech/software and a rebound in asset managers. Economic data showed continued housing weakness as the NAHB index fell to 34 (vs. 37 expected) and transactions remain slow despite builder incentives, while the Empire State manufacturing index surprised positively (11 vs. -0.5) and import prices were better than expected (0.8 vs. 2.4). He also discusses Ken Rogoff’s book on deficits, arguing excessive debt is ultimately deflationary. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:33 Ceasefire and Iran Talks 01:07 Tech and Asset Managers Surge 01:27 Housing Data Turns Weaker 02:22 Manufacturing and Import Prices 03:12 Debt Deficits and Inflation Debate 04:54 Closing Thoughts and Outlook Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening. Another update here in markets overall, which is nice to see here. We've really been on quite a V-shaped recovery. The S&P actually did move above 7,000 and made some at least intraday new highs. In fact, actually closed there. We closed up on the S&P. percent. Dow was down 72 points there, and the NASDAQ was up a percent and a half. So this is a much more tech-led rally that we've seen here the last few days. Interest rates were up about three basis points on the 10 year, which is now at 428. So tens, and pretty much all rates across the board have been pretty

steady in most of this. But you've got a blockade now in effect, and largely we're feeling a little bit better about the efficacy of it, just since it's moving the ball down the field in negotiation with Iran between the U.S. and Iran, and also markets are pretty assuredly at this point pricing them some sort of a resolution. I wrote about that a little bit yesterday, and David elaborated on it a little bit today. There's lots of different things that can change the direction in this, so it's too early to really call it, but we like what we're seeing so far. And there's been a big rally in some of the technology names, a lot of the AI, the tech, some of the software especially. And then you've also seen a big rebound in the asset managers. Most of those

two things, like I said yesterday, are somewhat tied together. You have recovery and software, which is the private credit component that was most underloved, and those two things seemed to be tethered. The other piece out today was really about housing and some of the weakness that we've seen. Today, we got an NAHB housing market index. This is like a confidence index, basically, on housing from the home builders. Much lower than expected. The number was 34 instead of a 37, which is usually somewhat arbitrary or sounding for most, but just housing remains to be stuck. There really isn't much transaction going on and on the new building side.

Home builders have been incentivizing either lower rates through their loan programs to try to incentivize buyers. Of course, they just make it up in the price of the house. But that stuff is a little long in the tooth now. So it's slowing down. And with interest rates that are still high on the mortgage side of things, there is only so much that can be done to squeeze all. of the lemonade out of the lemon. So that's what's happening on the home of the front. So still more

softness in housing. We've written about that quite a bit. There was a few other pieces of economic data out. There was a manufacturing index. This is that Empire State number that we talk about often. This is the month of April, much better than expected. So that's a good thing. That's a good economic number. That's only one area, but still a good manufacturing number on the Empire State today. It was an 11 versus a negative 0.5. You also had an import price index. This is important When you think about tariffs and the effect that it has had on import prices, the number that we got today was actually much better than expected. This is a 0.8 versus a 2.4. So significantly better than expected. That's including the aftermath of whatever tariffs it may or may not have done.

And then you've got an energy volatility with the U.S. and Iran conflict in there today as well in the last several months now. The question in there today was about a book. This is Ken Rogoff's book, Our Dollar, Your Problem. It's essentially about over-indebtedness in the U.S. It's about deficit spending, and it's about what will ultimately end up being an inflationary period of time because of those things over the next decade. And our comment is very familiar with Rogoff and very smart economists. So none of our comments are taking anything away there. often I disagree with the conclusions. That's what makes a market, right? There's different people

that can have different ways to look at it. What we believe is that over excessive debt is ultimately deflationary, and we look at the Japan experiment as a pretty good case study of how a 30 or 40 year period of basically blowing up central bank balance sheet to infinity to try to stop up what ultimately was a deflationary period of time over the last 30 years, what that ultimately does. You're pulling forward expenditure and consumption with the debt. issuance and then you have to service the debt over time and ultimately that leads to lower growth. We've seen the opposite happen both in this country and what happened during the zero interest rate period of time and what's happening now with rates very positive, both on Fed funds and on

the yield curve and you have higher growth going on now versus back then he had lower growth. So there's different periods of time where you can cite what debt does. Ultimately, we would agree and I would agree with the deficit spending argument that spending uncontrollably is going to lead to a worse outcome. I just, I believe that drawing the conclusion of it being an inflationary would be the wrong one to draw. And I would cite some of those other things, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is void of good information and a good book. So that's my comments at least on that. And that's my around the horn on the day. I know this is a little bit short and sweet. Like I said, the bias to this market remains to see, remains to the upside.

You've got S&P at all time highs. You've got rotation going back the other. way now with some of the tech names and AI stuff. And we're still in this sort of sweet spot of a ceasefire that will go all the way through until Tuesday of next week. Markets are feeling better. With that, I'm going to let you go this evening. Thank you for listening, as always, and we'll talk to you soon on Dividing Cafe. Thank you. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member Finra and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No

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