The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - April 29, 2026

Episode Date: April 29, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day with the Dow down 280 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were flat, as blue chips lagged and tech was positive. Treasury yields rose (10-year up 7 bps to 4.42%; 30-year briefly above 5%) alongside higher oil prices (WTI up ~8%, Brent up ~1%) amid Middle East tensions. He highlights three crosscurrents: the UAE leaving OPEC and its implications for oil-price control and potential benefits to U.S. shale; the FOMC holding rates with Powell signaling no cuts this year, inflation risks, unusual four dissents, and Kevin Walsh set to lead the Fed starting May 16; and “Mag Seven” earnings (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) shaping sentiment as overall earnings growth runs ~15.1% YoY. He also addresses real estate divergence (Class A diversified vs weaker markets), notes strong durable goods orders and steady housing starts, and says the S&P is up ~5% YTD with a modest upside bias despite volatility.| 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:32 Oil Surge and Rising Rates 00:54 UAE Exits OPEC 02:31 Fed Decision and Dissents 03:34 Mag Seven Earnings and AI Spend 04:25 Real Estate Divergence Explained 05:14 Durables and Housing Data 05:44 Rangebound Outlook and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Good evening and welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you again here as your host. On a somewhat mixed day, mostly towards the downside, both in stocks and bonds, Dow was down, 280 points on the day. NASDAQ was flat. S&P 500 was flat. So bigger sell off across some of the blue chips than some of the other sectors. Tech was positive on the day.

Ten year was up seven basis points. We closed at 442. And actually, the 30 year breached 5%, which we haven't seen in over a month. So rates are trending higher, and it's because of oil prices also moving higher. WTI today was up about 8%. Brown was up a percent. So ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. And you had a couple of other sort of cross currents is what I've written about today

in the market today, left it. somewhat rudderless on the day. We actually closed off of the lows. But the three things I'd point to today. One, the UAE, so this is the United Arab Emirates, left OPEC. So big deal. It opens the door for potentially others to do the same. OPEC is largely Saudi, if you want to know who controls most of the, you hold most of the cards. But UAE leaving, the Iran and U.S. conflict has opened up the ability for them being located geographically on the other side of the straight to ramp up their production. They want to have the freedom to do that. And they can produce upwards of five million barrels per day. This is not something because of the conflict. This is something

they've been working on for two years. And so it's on the works. It's been cited many times. And so there you have it. It does add some fragmentation to the control of the price of oil. If you have less power inside of the cartel, set the prices, then you can potentially have prices move around differently. But ultimately, five million barrels a day isn't enough to change it dramatically. It's on the margin. What I've written in there, though, is back in the day, this is 10 years ago, with Russia joining, if you remember what was then called, and still called OPEC plus, the idea was U.S. shale industry was going to up in the market and control and power and all these things. And so they wanted a bigger consortium of cartel. That position was widely disputed and contested.

Obviously, the U.S. was not a favor. But it really did the opposite. It allowed a very well-capitalized country to play the long game and it's been very successful for U.S. shale production and control in the space. And something like the UAE leaving OPEC is also technically a net positive for U.S. producers. So just keep that in mind for what we're talking about there. The other part of what was out today was obviously the FOMC rate decision. We knew rates were going to be held steady, but a couple of things, Powell basically took off rate decreases for the rest of the year, at least in a statement. He also said that there's risks to inflation and this volatility. And those were wildly expected. You have the Senate Banking Committee now that has confirmed Kevin Warsh to come in.

So that goes to the Senate floor for the vote. And you've got Kevin Warsh will start on May 16th to run the Fed. And so what is happening here is the Fed is being handed over in a mixed status because you actually had four dissents. So this was the first time in 30 plus years since 1992. where you had four governors actually dissent. Three of them wanted more hawkish language, which isn't really all that big a deal, but then one of them wanted rate cut, which of course is mirroring and wanted a 25 base point rate cuts.

Fed is going to change hands, and the unanimity of it is different than what has been in the past, and it's during a time of volatile energy prices and war and all these different things, so it'd be interesting to see how that continues to play out. The third thing in undertone for today in my cross currents was the mag-7 earnings that are starting to kick in a gear. Earnings have already started to come out better than expected,

as I've reported. 40% have come out so far, 15.1% year-over-year growth. That's on pace for a sixth consecutive double-digit earnings growth. That's a good thing, obviously. MagS7 reporting this afternoon. You've got Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta. Combined $11 trillion market cap, this is bigger than most countries in the world. It's bigger than basically all countries in the world except for the U.S. and China as far as total GDP. But total commitment to AI spend is north of 600 billion, we're looking at what kind of revenue of these companies are deriving from these investments. Three of the four that I mentioned definitely have that. One of them, which is social media company, has much less of it. But either way, it will set the tone for tomorrow and we'll be

able to walk through some things with you in the podcast tomorrow. Question in there today was about real estate and the weakness of it, but the funds that we tend to run seem to do fine anyways and what's the gig. Why is that? The difference is just that they're vastly different comparisons. if you looked at a B-class building in San Francisco and versus an A-class industrial property in one of the Sunbelt states, obviously one's performing good and one's performing poorly. And that it's the same thing as the stock market. There's just a big divergence in different names that you can own. Same thing than real estate.

We tend to focus on the larger players in the space, and so they're higher quality, and they're all Class A, and they're all diversified, both in states and geography, but also multifamily, industrial, retail, and office. It's hard for me to speak to this particular re-eatel. question if he's seeing individual foreclosure signs somewhere in some city. But those are my comments generally. Good question, though. Okay, two things on economic, and then I'm going to let you be for the evening. You've got durable goods orders that were better than expected by a white margin. We've got an eight-tenths versus a two-tenths number. So that's a good thing that's forward-looking. This is

an investment and expensive equipment. And then you also had housing starts basically in line with projections, so porridge is just right, lukewarm. You did have building permits shoot ahead of expectation, so that's more of a forward-looking indicator, so I'll call that slightly good. But both numbers were considered positive on the day. But that's my around-the-horn-free today. It was quite a lot to go through, frankly, and it's leaving the market in this somewhat purgatory. We've been somewhat range-bound, but just keep in mind that S&P is up about 5% on the year. And this is April 29th.

The bias is still to the upside. There's more positive undertones than negative volatility. But that's what I've got for you today. I wish you a good evening, and we will be back with you tomorrow on dividend cafe. Thank you. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with High Tower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with High Tower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through High Tower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through High Tower Advisors LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell

securities. No investor process is free risk. There's no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced Turin will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information referenced herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. The Bonsor Group in Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no express or implied

representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information. for statements or errors contained in or emissions from the obtained data and information referenced to your end. The data and information are provided as of the date reference. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only, the opinions expressed, are solely those of the Bonson Group and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates. High Tower advisors do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax advice or tax information. Tax laws vary based on the client's individual circumstances and can change

at any time without notice. Clients are urged to consult their tax or legal advisor for any related questions.