The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - April 8, 2026

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps a record rally on Wednesday, April 8, with the Dow up 2.85% (1325 points), S&P 500 up 2.5%, and Nasdaq up 2.8%, driven by news of a two-week U.S. extension for Iran negotiations tied to a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that sent WTI oil down 16%, helping CPI and Fed futures price in greater odds of rate cuts; bonds also rallied slightly with the 10-year ending near 4.30%. He notes the S&P has risen six straight sessions and is within ~3% of its January closing high, argues investors must stay invested through headline-driven volatility, and discusses ongoing strategic risks around Iran’s control of shipping lanes and implications for global GDP. He answers a question on who is most affected by Hormuz disruptions, citing Bahrain as most vulnerable and Kuwait as better buffered by sovereign wealth funds, and highlights March FOMC minutes showing concerns about higher inflation and softening labor. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:26 Oil Shock and Fed Bets 01:38 Staying Invested Through Volatility 02:38 Strait Strategy and Risks 03:18 Who Gets Hit Hardest 04:24 Global GDP Lens 04:56 FOMC Minutes and Wrap 05:18 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. Brian Saitel with you here is your host this evening here on Wednesday, April the 8th on a big rally day across the board. This was one for the record books. You had the Dow close up 2.85 percent. That's a little over 1,300 points. 1325 to be exact. He had the S&P close up 2.5%. Nasda got 2.8%. And last night, we got news that the U.S. was granting a two-week extension to Iran for deal progressions and negotiations in exchange for a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. You had oil prices on WTI come down overnight, 16%. And all of that held through the entire trading day. Usually this stuff opens up at that big move in the morning and then can fade a little bit as the day trades on.

You saw that a little bit about an hour before the close, but then things resumed and he ended up not quite to the highest, but pretty darn close. So a big day up on markets, and that was across the stock market. The bond market also rallied a little bit. He had the 10-year down about a basis point. We closed at 4.30. So you had CPI futures come down on inflation with the lower energy price, again, 16% is the biggest one-day move that we've had since 2020. You also had Fed futures price and the higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts with that lower input cost and inflation data. So you had a little popery of good as far as what the market was concerned with. The S&P is now up for six straight sessions, and it's back to about 3% within its all-time closing

high in January. So all this to say, if you think about what was exactly 12 months ago from today, which was Liberation Day time period in the market low of April 8th of last year, that was almost a 20% drawdown, not quite. This wasn't even 10 at the worst part, and now we're only down about three. Significant, yes, stressful, yes, all of those things, hasn't been lasting enough to cause real economic damage per se yet, and hopefully there's a positive outcome. We're staying vigilant on this because, frankly, we don't know exactly where this will play out,

and neither does anyone else. For traders that are trying to game this from a day-to-day headline, I mean, I keep using the faces ripped off thing because it's just a classic Wall Street terminology, but it's the truth. If you were on the wrong side of today or out of the market completely or something like that, a two and a half percent move is one of those best 10 trading days of the year and ends up hurting your overall return. So you have to stay invested, but you should be invested in a portfolio that is attributable to what your goals and risk tolerances are and hopefully be able to weather some of these storms that come up in the short term. The reality in this thing is that Iran, while it has been militarily defeated, there's no question there. It has been able to maintain its control over the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. And that's a power that it has protected and now in negotiations, one that is unlikely that they would see diplomatically if they weren't forced to relinquish it militarily.

So if that can be the case, I'm not sure that a military victory is going to outweigh what is ultimately a strategic defeat in the region. and what that means for world stage and actors and frankly areas of the world that rely on the energy that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So a lot of things to unfold here before this is over and again we're staying vigilant. Question in there today, not coincidentally, was also about Strait of Hormuz and which countries are most affected by it? And the ones that with sovereign wealth funds are they more protected? And are there, is it more like years or more like months before some of these have real economic damage? The clearest answer is Bahrain. it's the smallest and financially weakest and then also has zero alternatives to exporting oil

other than through the straight. And so that's its revenue stream and that's what's affected the most. And so that would be more like months rather than years. But if you look at countries like both Kuwait, for example, while they do have sovereign wealth funds to protect and absorb some of the shock financially from a 70% drop in revenue from oil revenues, that's a big deal. Those things won't last infinitely. So there's a time period along with. it. They do have more diversification in their economies, and while they're definitely suffering, it wouldn't be quite as bad as months. So they could probably have a period of time that's longer to sustain some of this in weather the storm, hopefully. It's not likely that this is going to last

years, at least from what we're saying so far as well. So take that for what it's worth as well. Regardless, all of these countries that I mentioned rely on these revenues from oil. And if you look at countries like Oman or Saudi Arabia or even Iran, because they're still able to export, You've actually seen via pipelines, via alternative routes, so on and so forth. You've actually seen an increase in revenue, believe it or not, with the rise in oil prices, I guess I'd say unfortunately. So an interesting dynamic, and economically speaking, I wouldn't pay as much attention to individual country in the region. I'd probably look at things more globally and holistically with what it means for global GDP.

The only piece of economic news on the day, which was not a whole heck of a lot, was just the FOMC minutes for the month of March, were out, showed participants concerned both on higher inflation and also softening labor with the conflict in Iran pursuing and ongoing. So there you have it. That's my round the horn for you today on again, a big rally day, big day of green on my screen. And I'll end it there with you tonight. And I'll be back with you tomorrow in Dividend Cafe. Thank you for listening. Have a good evening. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member Finra and SIPC, and with High Tower Advisors, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC.

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