The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - January 7, 2026

Episode Date: January 7, 2026

Market Snapshot: A Day of Mixed Signals and Volatility In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach, Florida, discusses the latest market trends as of January 7th. Despite two consecutive positive days, the market experienced a slight downturn with the DOW down by nearly 1%, the S&P down by a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq inching slightly positive. Positive movements in the bond market and an increase in volatility were noted. Key geopolitical developments included potential positive news about Ukraine and discussions around Venezuelan oil and Greenland. On the economic front, the ADP private payroll and job openings numbers were slightly weaker than expected, but the ISM services number exceeded expectations. Brian provides insights into the impacts of Venezuelan oil on global prices and discusses the current state of the energy sector. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:11 Geopolitical Headlines Impacting Markets 02:10 Economic Data and Market Reactions 03:51 Venezuelan Oil and Market Implications 04:57 Energy Sector Insights 05:33 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Good evening and welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, January 7th. Brian Saitel back with you here today, again, from our West Palm Beach, Florida office. And what one day giveth, the next day taketh. We had up days for two days in a row. And today was more or less a down day, a across the board. The only thing that was positive was two things. One was the bond market was slightly positive. You had treasury yields drop a few basis points on the yield curve. And so bonds rallied slightly. And then you had volatility pick up about four percent. The VIX was up four and a half percent roughly to still the low 15s though. And for volatility, if you want to know what that means, that's on the lower end. So historically, markets are actually behaving quite nicely even with today's sell-off. But the stock market was down. A little under

1% on the Dow, and in today's terms, that equals 466 points, S&P was negative by a third of a percent, and then NASDAQ was actually slightly positive, just barely. So you had a little bit of a reversion the other way from value to growth. Today, some of the tech names actually performed better than some of the more value-oriented names in the market. That's what you have there. There was a good amount of data and news and just stuff going on in headlines in markets, and I'll walk through that a little bit. On the geopolitical side, positive headlines about a Ukraine settlement, potentially off-putting or concerning headlines about oil coming out of Venezuela

and coming to the U.S. to replenish some reserves in the tune of several billion. Remember, there are sanctions against shipping Venezuela oil elsewhere, and those will probably be lifted. And there was some headlines over that. And then the third thing was headlines over what may or may not transpire with Greenland, which is a Danish territory and in talks of being purchased or something by the U.S. Again, it's hard to sink your teeth into a lot of these things because headlines are just that. I'm just telling you what the minutia of today's market was. And then with two up days

in a row, we gave some back. I chalked this up to a weird trading day. It wasn't really anything largely directional to the negative. Just a couple of things going on there I wanted to mention. On the economic side, though, we actually did get some data a little mixed. But on the private payroll side. This is that ADP private payroll number we get. And again, fresh read from what was shut down before, but this is for December. So this is a good number. We got 41,000 when 47 was expected. So slightly below, but frankly, I view that as just fine, and I think markets did too. And then another number inside of employment is that job openings number that we talk about, which is the Joltz number. This is for November. So it's a little bit more stale, but fairly relevant

still and it was below expectations. That's a sign things are slowing a little bit in labor if there's fewer jobs that are being opened to try to be filled. We got 7.1 million. We were expecting 7.7. So it's a decent miss. Again, that was November and so we're all the way into January now. So there's some time to get a more fresh read on the job openings number. And then the last thing was the ISM services number. Remember, we've talked about manufacturing. Those manufacturing numbers have been pretty weak for quite some time now. The services side has actually still been pretty good, and that's, remember, two-thirds of the economy. We got a 54.4 number expected was 52. So this is a good beat, and it's a good pulse on what's going on in the economy and to the positive.

So of what was reported today, I'd say employment was slightly weaker, and then growth, at least on the services side, was a fair amount better. And with that, like I said, you got stocks that sold off, you had bonds that rallied a little bit, you had the dollar that was slightly higher, You had gold that was slightly lower by about a percent. You had this super popular topic of silver these days that was down 4%. And then oil was also down a couple percent. So a bit of a negative day overall. Question in there today was above Venezuela. And even though the author of that question has the name of Brian S,

I can assure you it certainly wasn't this Brian S. But the question was about Venezuelan oil. And with more of it coming online and the supply growing, that mean that the price should go much lower. And the answer to that is yes and no. I actually answered it yesterday. And in the global scheme of things, we're not talking about a huge needle mover at this point. It could become that, but prima facie on day one, it isn't. That's the first thing. And then the second thing, just remember, prices get set with both supply and demand. So if you increase only one of those things, that's only half of the equation. If demand is stronger or weaker,

that's also going to move the price up or down. And so that's an important, if you increase, if not as much of an important factor in that equation as well. So it's not just a supply story, in other words. So there's the answer. Answer straight and forward on the Venezuelan oil front and why it's not moving things. Oil has come down a little bit. Brent is at 60 and WTI is at 56. The nice thing that I've said many times is that when you look at energy stocks

and the energy paradigm and sector, with oil trading in the 50s on WTI, it's very healthy. These companies are still very profitable. Stocks are performing well. It's nice to see because for a time, if you remember, oil really needed to be in the 70s and 80s for that sector to flourish. And that is definitely not the case these days. And the main reason for that is productivity and technology gains for different ways to pull it out of the ground and be more efficient with the resource itself. So those things are all good for that industry overall. But that's what I have for you in Around the Horn on the Day. It's a bit of a short and sweet synopsis for today. But I I'm going to leave it there. Reach out with your questions, as always, and thank you again for listening to the Dividend Cafe. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC.

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