The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - July 8, 2026

Episode Date: July 8, 2026

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent’s tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing. 00:00 Market Volatility Update 00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens 01:11 Sector Rotation Signals 01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot 02:10 Tariffs Success Question 03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit 04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel here, your midweek host on this Wednesday, July 8th, a bit of volatility picking up today and mostly related to a pickup in kinetic energy between the U.S. and Iran. Iran ended up striking several different oil tankers. The U.S. retaliated, striking 50. 60 different military targets across the country, different comments from Trump online as well, citing that the agreement was off. And so it's more back and forth there. Markets did sell off a bit, although far off the lows on the day, and it ended up somewhat mixed. But the reality here

is that you've got oil up roughly 5% or so, a modest sell-off. But I'd call it a far cry from a rush out of risk assets and in a safe havens. The dollar was, modestly positive just a little bit. Treasury yields ended up closing up about three basis points so that I wouldn't call that much of a move. And then both gold and silver were down. So again, not necessarily a huge rush and a safe haven. Nonetheless, what I think has happened is the market has become somewhat desensitized and then also there's just more of a likelihood of an off-ramp being sought sooner than later. What I did mention in there was the continued rotation. And that actually undid a little bit today because you actually had tech actually perform a little

better. But all that to say, if you look at percentage of sectors above their 50-day moving average, it's a stark difference. You've got pharma, household products, utilities, 100% of the stocks inside of those sectors are all trading above their 50-day moving average that shows a lot of strength. But then if you look at sectors like tech semis and autos, less than 40% or so are trading above those moving averages. On the economic side, there was a wholesale inventory number that came out less than expected. We got a one-tenth versus a three-tenths for the month. Growth. in inventories, but what you did see is wholesale sales actually pick up in a pretty big way. They were up 3.4%.

What that does to the inventory to sales ratio is it actually moved at the lowest since 2012. So it's fairly meaningful. So there's some different bifurcation going on in what's inside of inventories and then what's actually being sold. And that reads into the economy as a forward-looking indicator. The question that came in was about Scott Bessent's comments regarding the ultimate results of what came of tariffs, net net, as being a huge success. and not just that, but it enabled some of these trade deals with different companies that the otherwise never would have had. And the question was about, is that real? And what are the hard numbers?

So partly, yes, partly political is my answer. And let me break it down a little bit. What was originally estimated was around $500 billion to a trillion in tariff revenue into the government coffers. What actually transpired, if you look at October through April of this year, with about $169 billion. So we can annualize that at about $290 billion. So I'm going to call that less than half of the low end estimate. So that's the actual gross dollars. But then you had IEPA get overturned by the Supreme Court. You had it immediately following Section 1222 that brought in another 10%. All that to say, there was inflows and outflows to those numbers, but the comment of big success, I would definitely call generous politically, yes. That said, the trade deal that we had with Japan at $1.9 billion,

and then also South Korea were both net positives. And so there's a defensible part to the comment overall. So yes, political, but also defended in some of the trade deals. And if you look at the total net, like my bottom line to the deal was there really wasn't much change to the trade deficit itself, which is what the whole point was. There was a slight negative to GDP because there was a negative to the consumer, because that's who paid for the consumption tax. And then that was offset by some of the stimulative fiscal benefits inside of the OBBBA bill that got passed. So boil that all down to say a lot of different ways to move the needle. around to get to the same moving to the same starting point of where you were in a different way.

I will say that the capex boom and AI-related capex boom with its expensed, with advanced expensing that was part of that OBBBA bill was a positive net net. So there you have it. As far as a short around the horn on somewhat of a weird trading day, mostly around geopolitical tensions. But I hope the question was helpful. And some of the factoids and takeaways were also of benefit to you here this Wednesday afternoon. But with that, I'll be back with you tomorrow with a lot more to chew through on Dividend Cafe. Thank you for listening. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC,

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