The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - June 11, 2025

Episode Date: June 11, 2025

Market Recap and Economic Insights: June 11 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market performance on a flat trading day, noting minor declines in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow. Key economic updates include the release of CPI numbers, global growth forecasts cut by the World Bank, and ongoing US-China trade talks. Despite lower-than-expected CPI growth, concerns about inflation from tariffs have not materialized yet. Brian also provides insights on US growth projections, emphasizing the oscillatory nature of the World Bank's estimates and expressing optimism based on real-time data from the Atlanta Fed. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:37 CPI Numbers and Inflation Insights 01:33 US-China Trade Talks Update 02:02 World Bank Global Growth Forecast 03:06 Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to the Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, June the 11th, and Brian Sightel is with you here on a fairly benign and flat day in markets overall to the downside I'd say. The S&P has actually been up six of the last seven trading days, but gave back a little bit on the day. It was down about a quarter of a percent.

We're still just about 2% below all time highs. Yesterday we were down 1.7 from all time highs. NASDAQ was off a little bit more, about 0.5%. Dow is down just about one point. So I'll call that flat and completely even on the day. The CPI numbers that came out today were by far the biggest piece of news outside of the continuing talks between the US and China on their trade deal. But CPI on headline and core, actually, when you strip out the food and energy, only rose

about one-tenth of a percent for the month of May we were expecting 0.2% on headline but 0.3% on core so 0.1 is quite a bit lower and this is the fourth month in a row and this is actually into May and so if you think about when all of these tariff announcements were announced and Liber day being in April, we're getting enough time now, or we're just not seeing it materialize and what was once feared which is rising prices coming through on an inflation front. That's not what we're seeing so far there. And now some of those trade deals aren't completed.

And so maybe that changes in the future. The US China trade talks in London are ongoing. President Trump had a tweet out saying it was essentially a completely done deal, something along the lines of 10% for the US and 55% for China. But until there's official news, I'm a little hesitant to give you a whole lot of information until I have more concrete news there. Energy prices were up, CPI was a little weaker and stocks were also a little weaker. Also out, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast

by about.4%. We're at 2.3% on global growth, and they cut the US down by.9% to 1.4%. And my comments on this, and this is my opinion, are that these numbers oscillate, okay? So World Bank has these estimates. I would actually take the over on both of those numbers, both on global and also on the, just based on the actual data that we're getting real time and

based on what our own fed numbers are saying about the U S growth number. And for Q2 in the U S what we're seeing, at least out of the Atlanta fed, which is a pretty decent real time GDP forecaster, there is a 3.8% surge in Q2. Of course, Q1 was negative by 0.2 and then you've got two more quarters to go. So we'll see how this year trades out. So with that, I know it's a short podcast. Tomorrow, we'll be back with you with more. On Friday, we'll have the long form dividend cafe.

But as always, I appreciate you listening very much and I encourage you to reach out with your questions. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC member FINRA and SIPC with Hightower Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. This is are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk. There is no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance

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