The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - November 12, 2025

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

Daily Market Recap: November 12 - Tech to Value Rotation Continues In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a daily market recap for Wednesday, November 12. He discusses the recent trends in the stock market, noting a continued rotation from tech and AI growth stocks to more value-oriented sectors. The DOW experienced its third consecutive day of gains, while the S&P also slightly increased, and the Nasdaq declined. Brian highlights the outperformance of the equal-weighted S&P over the market cap-weighted version. He also compares the performance of the 20-year Treasury ETF (TLT) with Bitcoin since the previous year. Additionally, Sitel touches on the likelihood of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a 50 basis point cut. He concludes by addressing the minimal market impact of the recent government shutdown and answering viewer questions regarding its potential effects on various sectors. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:27 Sector Performance and Investment Strategies 02:13 Economic Data and Government Updates 03:16 Federal Reserve Insights 04:36 Impact of Government Shutdown 05:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome back into Dividend Cafe this afternoon of Wednesday, November the 12th. Brian Saitel is with you here. To give you an update on our daily market recap, we've got kind of a third day in a row. Actually, I would say today is much like yesterday. Monday was the big update. but you basically have a three-for-three on the Dow, three-up days. So today, Dow is at 326 points.

S&P was up a little bit, four points, NASDAQ was down again. So this continued rotation from tech AI growth into more value-oriented parts of the market continues on. The equal weight S&P has outperformed the market cap-weighted S&P now, five days out of six. So it's a decent amount of shift here as we're getting into this sort of holiday season and into the year end after such a big run-up in some of those other sectors. Case and point, and the comment in there, there's a chart of it, which is, I think, unlikely to most is just the fact that TLT, which is the 20-year Treasury Exchange Traded Fund, is outperforming the Bitcoin ETF or Bitcoin spot price on the year.

So for all of the fun and volatility and attraction to this literally shiny object, this Bitcoin thing, year-to-date, and actually, take it back. since Trump's election, which is actually a little bit more than near to date. So we're going back since about a year ago. But nonetheless, the point is just those volatile things can be volatile. And so what ends up happening when you get these runups in growth is just like it happened in the late 90s. You were basically an idiot to not own most or all of your portfolio technology back then.

Everybody did. Nobody owned defensives and nobody owned financials or energy companies or staples. And then you had 15 years where the exact opposite happened. And it's hard to say that that will happen again the same way. But our point is just be aware of it if you own indexes or if you just have just owned quote unquote stocks and felt diversified, I promise if you peel back the onion a little bit and actually look what you own, it's really five to seven different companies and there's just risk there. For better or for worse, they've done really well. They might continue to do well.

But nonetheless, you might want to consider a different risk strategy to just one sector and a couple of names. But the other points on the day, so I mentioned yesterday we'd have some more data. I was looking at CPI, hopefully for tomorrow, with the government reopening. It does not look to be the case, at least as of now. That may change this tonight. But as of now, it doesn't look like the government will be open for some of this data to come out this week. We're looking at job claims and then CPI we were hoping to get. So we'll keep looking out there.

But it looks like there's enough to pass the Senate's bill in the House to get it done. We just don't know the exact timing. And just like I mentioned yesterday with Veterans Day in the bond market. closed yields actually did drop today. So we were down on tenure. We closed down four basis points at 407. And by the way, I didn't write this in there and I regret it not, but wanted to just thank every veteran for your service and for your sacrifice. That means everything to every American and we so appreciate it. That was from yesterday. Okay. So that aside, what else we got on the day? Not a lot of economic news. I can tell you that there was a lot of different Fed speakers out

talk and shop today. With one of them retiring, Bostick, who was a more notable Fed Speaker, said something more hawkish before he said he's also considering retiring, and that wasn't expected or anything like that. So maybe a head scratcher as to what could be going on there. But the probability of a December rate cut is still at two-thirds, we're at 65% for a 25-bases point rate cut. Also out today, Mirren, who was the Trump recent appointee into the Fed, said that he opts for a 50 basis point cut in December still, but a 25 is a minimum. So maybe there's some give there on that. The other notable thing I noticed was Williams, this is the New York Fed president,

said that the balance sheet, when reserves reach an ample level, the gradual bond to buying will resume. So they've been letting the balance sheet run off, and that was called quantitative tightening. And basically saying at some point they might want to maintain that balance sheet, and once they have ample reserves to actually buy bonds. Question in there on today, Ask DBG was about what particular sector should benefit most from the government shutdown coming to an end? And the answer is, if you can tell me which sectors got hurt the most while the government was shut down, I can tell you which ones are going to benefit while it reopens.

The answer is, there aren't any of them that were hurt in this. This was not a market event at all. It was a political ploy that basically went nowhere and got nothing accomplished other than, unfortunately, some delayed flights, some folks not getting there. food stamps and government paychecks, and it's just the way this system is currently built. And I don't know that there's another way to do it. I think there should be a checks and balances on expanding the budget as we deficit spend. But as a result, this is what we deal with now and again. What I would say to add a point to what David mentioned is that the market has already

priced it in because it's already going to happen. So the Dow was up something like 500 points on Monday. It was up significantly yesterday and it's up 300 points today. And And there you have it. So when the government actually does reopen, you're going to get some data that gets released. And I would suspect that you get stocks that may move a little bit, but a lot of that has already been priced in. So that's what we have as far as the market move. So there you have it on the day, a little bit of around the horn for you on an otherwise kind of dearth of data really to go through. But I'll be back with you tomorrow, as always. And I encourage the questions. We love them. And we'll talk to you soon. Reach out. Thank you. Bye-bye. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy ourselves securities. No investment process is free risk.

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