The Dividend Cafe - Wednesday - November 19, 2025

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

Market Recap and Insights: AI Chip Earnings and Economic Data Delays In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group provides a market update for November 19th. After four negative trading days, the markets saw slight gains with notable attention on the largest AI chip company's positive earnings report. Concerns are discussed about the sustainability of high capital expenditures among trillion-dollar market cap companies amidst stretched valuations. Limited economic data due to government delays is also addressed, along with comments on the FOMC minutes and the unlikelihood of a December rate cut. Brian clarifies The Bahnsen Group's stance on market seasonality, emphasizing a focus on fundamentals over time-of-year influences. The episode wraps up with a look forward to upcoming economic data reports. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:26 AI Chip Company Earnings and Market Impact 01:36 Economic Calendar and Fed Decisions 02:45 Market Seasonality and Investment Strategy 03:30 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Data Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Wednesday, November the 19th. Brian Sightel is with you from our Newport Beach, California office here at the Bonson Group on a fifth day out of the last six that is actually positive. We had four days in a row of negative in the markets. The Dow closed up just a little bit, about 47 points. S&P was up about a third of a percent. NASDAQ was up about six-tenths of a percent. So you had a little bit rotation the other way back into some of the more growth-oriented parts of the market, but just marginally.

Part of that was some anticipation of the largest AI chip company's earnings that came out today after the closing bell. This is the largest market cap company in the world. So you know which one I'm speaking about actually beat earnings. and the stock is up a little in the after hours, which is fine. Obviously, the market is focused on this company because it's the largest company and also is indicative of the entire AI ecosystem and such. None of that to say is that the trillion dollar market caps that are out there and that are now spending 25 to 30 percent of revenue on capital expenditures from a 10 to 20

percent amount, maybe that's sustainable, maybe it isn't, and that's what the market is trying to discern right now in valuation. They're obviously very stretched. And so the issue here is even with earnings being positive, at some point, you just get to a point of valuation being the main concern. And whether that is here at this particular moment or whether it's next year, it's hard to tell. But that's what we're watching, at least. There wasn't a ton in the economic calendar today other than just remember that a lot of the data is still being frozen coming out of the government. In fact, speaking of which the September employment report is going to come out on Thursday, and that's from September.

You know, how much that data is useful, you tell me. There was an FOMC minutes out today, so this was some of the back and forth between those Fed governors and participants, and most were citing keeping rates unchanged because of government shutdown and also because of just a lack of data coming out of the government to really understand where they should move rates. And that December rate cut, which was two-thirds, then it was 50-50, now it's down to about one third of a chance for happening and slowly it's fading away because today BLS also reported that October non-farm payroll report that we were waiting for is not going to be released.

You've got November scheduled originally for December 16th coming out and that's going to be after their odds for the rate cut and that's why it's moving there a little bit. The question in there today was about how important market seasonality is. Is that something that the Bonson Group pays attention to when we're managing allocations? or portfolios. The short answer is no. There's something to be said about it. There are certain months, call it the end of the year, that tend to have more of a tailwind than a headwind that said since about 40% of the time. It's the other way. It's not investable. And it's a silly notion to begin with anyways. Just what time a year it is or what the weather's or what usually happens

sometimes but sometimes not is not really something that we put a lot of credence into at the Bonson Group. And so we're not spending a ton of time worrying too much about that. It's all about fundamentals. So that's what we're paying attention to. We, again, are looking more at the earnings that have come out from that large AI chip company and how they'll be interpreted in markets. The one thing I'll say is I wouldn't read too much into just the after hours moved in the stock this evening. These things can have knee-jerk reactions.

In fact, they almost always do. And right now, the stock is marginally higher. So you're talking about three or four percent. So if that holds until tomorrow, I'd be a little surprised. You have a full overnight period and the rest of the world that opens and trades in the meantime. But nonetheless, that's the news for the day. And I'll be back with you tomorrow on Dividend Cafe. We should have a little bit more data that comes out.

I know that there's going to be a flash PMI number. And again, that September employment report that gives us some market fodder to get through. But with that, I will let you go for this evening. Appreciate you listening. As I always do, reach out with your questions. Thank you very much. The Bonson Group is a group of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with Hightower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities LLC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free risk. There's no guarantee that the investment process or investment opportunities referenced Turin will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee.

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