The Dumb Zone FREE - Action is the Juice - Full 2026 Edition

Episode Date: August 31, 2026

Machine is back dropping fantasy football knowledge to help you win some cash this year. Joined as always by Fitz and Chuck with a special guest, John Daigle0:00 - Season Preview46:37 - Runni...ng Backs2:30:05 - Wide Receivers4:23:34 - Quarterbacks and Tight Ends5:25:10 - Targets and fades with John Daigle (00:00) - Season Preview (46:37) - Running Backs (02:30:05) - Wide Receivers (04:23:34) - Quarterbacks and Tight Ends (05:25:10) - Targets and fades with John Daigle ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 The action is the juice. It's machine. It's Chuck. It's fits. Year number 11. That's incredible. I'm proud of that, to be honest. Doing this before most people even knew how to log into Yahoo and do their little non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:00:23 No flex, no super flex leagues, just caveman shit, just raw dog and fantasy. 11 years ago. But yeah, this is the action as the juice. We try to help you win your home league, win any league you're in. I think one of our magic tricks is blending a lot of actual football knowledge with fantasy knowledge,
Starting point is 00:00:46 because I read and listen to everything. At the end of the year, it's a little disgusting to see my most played, my end-of-year-wrapped that they send you for Apple podcast. It's all fantasy podcast. It's disgusting. It's disgusting work, honestly. But we're going to take all that. We're going to distill it for you and hopefully give you stuff you can use this weekend and maybe next weekend if you got drafts going on because preseason is drawing to the end. Fitz, how are you, buddy? It's great to see you. Wish I got to see you more. But congratulations on the new gig and happy to see you.
Starting point is 00:01:23 Thanks. And I also turned 50 a few days ago. So that's why I had to make sure. I told everybody how old I was at the bottom that I actually did draft Barry Sanders in my first fantasy draft in 1998. Pretty good little pick. Same league, still going on going strong. That's solid, dude. I love that.
Starting point is 00:01:44 I only have one fantasy league overall that's, I've been in my entire fantasy career. It's my baseball league. And I don't watch baseball. So not super luck in. Nobody watches baseball anymore. It's about to be on a strong. strike season so you don't have to um but yeah fantastic to see you man excited to do this again um
Starting point is 00:02:05 we're going to do a little bit of an overview to start off um chuck what is up dude how are you how you feeling you got still got brains and guts on you from work today i got most of it pressure washed off of me so we're we're doing good we're coming to you live from the tile sample capital of the world and i'm ready to talk some football you do look uh like you're at tile lord like you're ready to just deal there it is whatever you need yeah whatever kind you want some tapioca i got you said um i was laughing at 11 earlier that it's year 11 because i don't know if you all saw like the uh the graphics that all the teams put out for like their bold uniforms like each team has a has a bold uniform um and like the bears ones got put out those they look
Starting point is 00:02:54 pretty cool but that's how everybody got that Caleb williams like nut sack shot um that's been floating around. The Chakwires put one out. And I was so confused at first because there's a little dude in the middle and it's like this little short guy and he's wearing number 11 and I was like, is this a promo
Starting point is 00:03:15 for their third preseason game? Like who's starting at quarterback for them? I was like, it looks like Chase Daniel. I was like, what is happening? And then I was like, oh, fuck me, that's Parker Washington. Yeah, Parker Washington. I remember seeing, and then you see Trevor Lawrence off to the right. Yeah, T-Law's back there just looking like a backstreet boy over there in the corner.
Starting point is 00:03:36 And Parker Washington is front and center just, me mugging. And I was like, who's number 11 for the Jaguars? And it was tripping me up for like half the day. I was like, whatever, I'll figure it out at some point. But yeah, anyway, you're number 11, man. We got some, we got some skins on the wall. I feel like I had converted fully all. the way over to being a a piss boy, a wide receiver heavy.
Starting point is 00:04:05 This is the way to go. This is the path to win year after year. And I felt like it worked for about five years really well. I was hammering it. I was winning more than I was losing. I was racking up numbers. And I feel like the last 1.5 years running back has made a comeback. Like nobody's goddamn business.
Starting point is 00:04:27 and we're back to kind of where we were, where if you aren't nailing the running back position off the top, you have zero chance. And so we'll get to the running back preview here in a minute, but just overview, what did you learn from last year that you're taking into this season fits and just kind of like the evolution overall? There's a couple things that I'll toss out there to you.
Starting point is 00:04:51 Obviously, running backs rising back up the board, I think like 16 or 15 at the first 18, 19, picks are scheduled to be running backs. And then I'm sure you've read and seen and just felt kind of like the death of the wide receiver too. There's been a lot written about that over the last, you know, whatever, 12 months or so. So how are you feeling about fantasy and the landscape overall right now? We talked about it last year on this podcast that, you know, just the personality groupings are getting bigger. And like you said, like these slot receivers weren't as popular and it just continued.
Starting point is 00:05:28 And you know, of course this is going to happen in about whatever year, one, two, three years, we're going to pivot back the other way. It all comes back to trying to stop the, you know, the defensive coordinator is trying to figure out how to stop the other team and how to bring in personnel and how to draft. And it's all, it's, it's been like this since 1998, you know, and when we were first doing this, like, it just, it's always going to keep turning. That's why I love this game. It's just trying to figure out when that.
Starting point is 00:05:55 is for this year you said 16 I have I cut it off at 14 I think there's enough running back depth where you can feel pretty comfortable getting one or even two guys before the middle of the second round and but you know if you take one of those top shelf wide receivers early and you're left deciding between Jeremiah love and Josh Jacob does your RB1 like God help you but if you get one of those top 14, it feels deep to me and pretty flexible, you know, to be able to fill out your running back roster. That's kind of how I feel the running backs are. And then, you know, we get the wide receiver. Top four is really obvious. And then it's kind of a cluster, depending on how you look at those. It really comes down. That next tier is like, how do you feel
Starting point is 00:06:44 about the Cowboys wide receivers? And that's taken up a good chunk. And then it's like a solid line after Zayflowers. Then you start pivoting to other positions. How about you, Chuck? I know we have a handful of drafts that we've got to get underway here pretty soon. And we've talked about the draft spots, right? But I don't know if we've talked about like pockets
Starting point is 00:07:07 that we want to be in on or out on in relation to positions. And what that means for how we need to draft ahead of that. So how are you feeling? It's a weird year. Most years I come into the end of August, start of September, peak draft season just dialed in knowing exactly what I want to do. And unfortunately, this year, for a lot of reasons, a lot of the meta is forcing me into things that I don't want to do. Half of the first three rounds by ADP are going to be running backs on pretty much every site that you're going to be drafting on.
Starting point is 00:07:49 And at the same time, a lot of the players at the top of the board are older than we're used to. And so it's forcing me to think through this puzzle in a way that I'm not comfortable drafting. I too like to lean into Anchor Running Back HeroRB. It takes very little for me to go zero RB, and it's very, very hard to do that this year. And so nailing kind of what you're doing at running back, how you're going to plan for folding in your tight end position and still not falling behind at receiver, I think, is really going to be the key meta this year. But the good news is there are these pockets that we're going to get into where you can really snipe value and I think carefully pivot away from just this high T. Pete Hegsseth, R.B. heavy running back world that we're in. The T-U levels are off the charts. Mm-hmm.
Starting point is 00:08:54 The other thing that I think is pretty interesting is for the first time in a while, maybe ever, I feel like the top two quarterbacks are still going too high. That's just, I believe that in my bones. But everyone else seems to be getting drafted in, like, affordable places. like you can this is the latest you've been able to get like the quarterback six in the quarterback six through 10 to the point where you can catch Mahomes in like the ninth, tenth round consistently. And I don't know if that's ever happened before in fantasy football. And so being able to fade, you know, if you want to put your foot in the ground and go Josh Allen, that's my guy or Lamar, that's my guy. Like more power to you. You don't have to think about it.
Starting point is 00:09:44 You don't have to play though with this quarter. quarterback come back to me to complete this stack, which is one of the most agonizing things you can deal with in a best ball or FFPC draft is, you know, I've loaded up with, I got my, I got my CD Lamb. I'm banking on Ferguson later is my tight end two or something. And then that goes two spots in front of you, right? So I know, we'll do running backs tonight. We'll do quarterbacks tonight. So I wanted to get a little bit of primer on those two positions on the overview. But the The quarterback spots, the ADP, I feel like, is finally in just like a logical place outside of Josh Allen and Lamar. And in some ways, that's warranted because those guys are different and they've proven to be different year after years. So the quarterback ATP and where everything kind of sits right now heading into the heavy draft season, which this shit could change in a week. There's going to be so many drafts. It could be ruined. be looking up in 10 days from now and go like we had it smart and then we got a little home
Starting point is 00:10:50 league started drafted and we fucked it up so how are you feeling about qb fissie i have so many thoughts on qb and and it all starts with josh allen it's not even a competition to me it's it's one and then it's freaking two to 15 it's you couldn't you couldn't convince me that you really know that any of those guys are going to finish you know two to 15 like you think lamar's the number two guy. I think he's such a distant two. For me, he's actually three. I have a very big surprise at number two, but I also think he could finish, like I said, outside of the top 12. I just have very little conviction when I start talking about quarterbacks and what I think about these guys. I, you know, I like Herbert. I love T. Law. I think Trevor Lawrence is getting severely
Starting point is 00:11:34 his, it's like everybody just like, up, nine touchdowns. He ran in nine touchdowns, therefore regression. And that's like the story. And I'm like, wait. hold on year one in you know leon kohen's offense he gets another year in that um you know we can talk about that later tonight but yeah quarterback to me is such a crap shoot and if you don't get josh allen it's weight it just sit and wait and do not reach for anybody and including for me that's the way i'm that's the way i'm approaching it anyway is i'm not reaching for lamar if you're going to reach for anybody it's josh allen and then just kind of sit around wait for a few rounds and then you might start attacking next position yeah i feel like the trap that people get into
Starting point is 00:12:14 is uh so jaden daniels is probably is listed as qb3 a lot of the times right and i'm looking at etr having him ranked 56 but then adp's at 63 and if you're just a adp slave you're going to look at that and go oh dude i'm getting him past adp but the sucker's bet is being the person that starts the tier right like if you find that collection of quarterbacks if you're the person that starts the run that only that's that's always a bad spot that's always the bad spot to be in when on the onesie positions at least yeah to me so how are you feeling on quarterback chuck at this moment i think we are facing the sharpest quarterback market we've ever faced and i'm i'm right with you It's, yeah, it's Josh Allen up top.
Starting point is 00:13:11 There's going to be a little bit of a gap there. Maybe if you want to have Lamar in the same tier, I wouldn't fight you. But the incentive this year is to wait and not necessarily get super involved in player takes. I think if there's an edge to be had at quarterback, it's either going early, and I'm okay with that if you're in a small league. But otherwise, the only edge that I can see is really just driving it to. to empty and being the last guy to take a quarterback in your league. No, I think that's sharp. Let's talk about how we're going to approach this next week, this next two weeks, however long you all have drafts.
Starting point is 00:13:57 Probably up until opening night. I've kind of been a sponge to this point. I've been listening to everything. I've been doing a couple of basketball things. I'll say have my dynasty rookie drafts. I've shifted more away from listening to like CBS fantasy football show. I like to, I still like to listen to it. But there was a time where that was like all I would listen to because I wanted to know what every generic person was into.
Starting point is 00:14:27 And so it's been taking on all these inputs and like hearing, it's almost just like hearing all these counts and hearing all these player takes and things like that. And now that we're, you know, what are we 48 hours away from having to draft our first FFPC main event team, I'm kind of forcing myself to take stands on these things because you need to. And, you know, I'm not going to have a big enough exposure to just, like, play it all to play everybody evenly. And so I talked about this in the past of how to do this, how to own a bunch of teams, how to manage a bunch of teams, and how to at least be more successful than the next guy year to year. I think it's no secret if you listened to us before. One of my tricks is I listen to all this stuff.
Starting point is 00:15:16 I take in all this information. I do try and blend it with legitimate real-life football. If Cover 2 shell coverage is going to start happening more, what does that actually mean to what's going to happen to offenses? and then what does that in turn mean to fantasy? And then things like that, things like 12 and 13 personnel. What does that mean? What's the side effect of that?
Starting point is 00:15:41 Oh, okay, fewer wide receiver two is and threes in the field. Okay, so fewer route participation for those people. Okay, so how you build this projection has fundamentally changed because the NFL has changed, right? And so one of the things I've talked about year after year is if there's a guy that you're just not really interested in at college, at all. Make your, give yourself some, some bumper lanes, man.
Starting point is 00:16:06 Take those guys out. Eliminate those guys from your player list. If you are going to look back a day after the draft and go, and I really don't like that play, why did I take him? Oh, because ADP told me to. I was getting some ADP value. Like, ADP value is not going to make you feel better ever. I'm always get your guy.
Starting point is 00:16:28 I'm always get the guy you believe in, especially if it fits structure. really with what you're trying to do in your builds and trying to blend that together. But one of the pieces of advice, if you're new right now and you haven't listened to us any of the previous 11 years, I'd say like, take that player pool, take the guys you legitimately don't like and can't stand and cannot see a positive outcome for. Take them off your board. Take them completely off your board. Because there's going to be someone you do like if you investigate it enough and you keep looking and you keep digging. And whenever people, people get to pockets, there's always a winning decision to be made. There is always a winning
Starting point is 00:17:06 decision to be made. Whether or not you can do it by being handcuffed to like ADP value or not, that's the trick. But every pick in the board, I hate when people get to, ah, that fourth round is kind of crap. I don't really like it into that fourth round. That's not really, there's no one there I really want to take. I'm like, pull somebody up. Take someone in the middle of the fifth. No one's telling you you have to live by this. After, and after the first 12 picks, what the fuck does it matter? What does it matter?
Starting point is 00:17:38 Like, it's not, you're going to churn half this roster probably. Especially if you're on the end. Yes. If you got, if you know a guy's probably not coming back to you, don't worry about what everybody else in the draft room is going to say about it. You take
Starting point is 00:17:53 your shot. Because if you know that guy's not coming back to you and he's enough, he means enough to your team and the way you've been thinking about this. You're going to sit and regret it if he doesn't come back to you and he know he's probably not going back to you. Like you said, I mean, we've talked about this a lot, but
Starting point is 00:18:09 there's so many strategies by practicing this and going on these quick sites where you can do in the mock draft in three minutes, you know. That's the exercise changes the game. That's the other thing is mock draft your ass off with the right settings
Starting point is 00:18:25 and just see what happens. these combinations that you throw together, you start pulling this guy up. Okay, what is my tight end room look like now that I have to take a tight end after round seven? Do I like that more? Can I survive these two V2s that I have to go through of can I get these two players, these two players? If you if you've mock draft two to five times of the league that you're about to actually go draft in, Like, you're going to smoke everybody.
Starting point is 00:19:00 You're going to eliminate half the decisions off the board already because you know what it means for the next three rounds behind it. It's like seeing the answers to the test before you get the scantron in your hand. That's how I consider mock drafting, right? And so, I don't know. There's a couple different. What for the people, for the generics at home, Chuck, what would be your number one piece of advice for for home league dudes and or for people stretching their legs out into big tournaments yeah best ball season is over and there is no points awarded for getting closing line value and scooping guys behind ADP so this is the time for player takes this is the time for smart roster construction and this is the time for building an edge you're going to see a lot of running backs go off the board in the first three rounds. Expect half the picks to be that. If you're on the end of,
Starting point is 00:20:01 you know, say you get a 10, 11, 12 pick, don't feel like you have to chase, build an edge, grab two receivers, and then, you know, hit that position early, backfill, take big swings late, and you have the waiver wire. You can pick up guys. You can drop guys. Swing for upside. Don't, you know, this is not best ball where you're locked into your roster. You can create edges. throughout the draft with sharp player takes and we talked about the death of the wide receiver two the wide receiver one finishes in positions have not changed and so if you can get two or three of those congratulations you know have a knife that you can wield against everybody else in your league you're only playing against nine 11 13 or seven other guys depending on your league size
Starting point is 00:20:50 yeah and the other thing i think i've talked about maybe five years running now is I think people will call it different things, but there is the idea of drafting backwards. And you find a guy later in the draft that you are confident you can get in round 10 plus.
Starting point is 00:21:16 And you're comfortable with that guy as your backstop at wide receiver three, maybe at RV3, maybe a starting tight end. Like if I had any balls last year, I would have said like, man, we're getting Harold Fanon ahead of ADP and I'm not taking a tight end before that. That's going to be my tight end one. It's going to allow, it's going to unlock all these picks in front of me to be non-tied-in picks.
Starting point is 00:21:42 And so when people are reaching for your, you know, your Tyler Warren era as I likely are fill in the blank, while they're doing that, I'm going, I'm taking my like third and fourth wide receivers. And, you know, we've hit pretty big doing that a handful of times. You know, Rahim Moster is the one that I always call out where, like, we just need to play as if we're going to get Moster in the 10th. And that's going to be our RB2. That's going to be our legit RB2.
Starting point is 00:22:16 And I think we had a couple of, I think we had a J.K. Dobbins call out like that last year. It's usually running backs. I usually can sniff those guys out. but whenever you get a read on a person that the rest of the field doesn't have and you're comfortable you're comfortable reaching on them because they're going so late um you're comfortable going a half round ahead even a round ahead to secure that you get that guy uh and your read is distinct from everybody else you see this person as an rb2 he's going in the rb4 territory drafting backwards and knowing I'm not taking an RB2 before this point,
Starting point is 00:22:54 it would make no sense for me to like double count and double stack my RVs and take a guy at the RB2 range and then take a guy at the RV3 range and then also take this guy that I think can be an RB2 down here. So RB2s, I can turn into ones. RB3s I can turn into RV2s. Anybody that you have a read on that you're confident can bump up into the position above. That doesn't mean you need to stack it on top of the guy
Starting point is 00:23:25 that is ahead of him at his position in ADP. That means I think you skip that guy and you do something different in that spot that no one else can do. And that's, I'm kind of zeroing in on a handful of those dudes this year. We'll get to him on the positions. But how do you treat whenever you have, whatever you feel like you have a distinct read on somebody?
Starting point is 00:23:48 but he fits. And you don't want to be the guy that freaks out and takes them like two rounds early. You don't want to, but you also are probably going to build your team with that in mind. So how do you treat whenever you have a player take that is kind of on the fringe or pushing the envelope? Well, it comes back to the thing we just talked about with mock drafting. I mean, you have to have a good idea of where he's going to fall. and you can't panic if he does fall if he goes.
Starting point is 00:24:21 I mean, you're like, all right, I know this guy's going in round eight. I'm going to plan to take him in round seven. What am I doing before I get to that spot and how am I leaving room for that guy where it makes sense? Because I have to not just check him off, not fill off these other tight-in and quarterback. I need to know what's going to happen if I do get him and what's going to happen after that. This is the best exercise that I did it like. lot for our Fox League. So not only mock drafting, but what can change everything is if you sit down
Starting point is 00:24:52 and map out the first two rounds and if you are, as if you are every single pick, like, if I am that first pick, I'm writing down, okay, let's, you know, this year, Bejohn Robinson or whoever, and you go through and, okay, if I'm the second pick, who would I put down? You get the, it makes you comfortable with handling that situation when every single guy that you would have taken is gone. You have to know where you're going to pivot because it had happened to me one year in that league. And I fortunately, I had I had planned on it and I didn't get the sweats. But I mean, it's a, it's a shitty feeling when that happens to you.
Starting point is 00:25:30 That doesn't happen much. And that's where you, you do all these exercises to get to that point with what you're talking about. when you like, I love Chris Rodriguez this year and how, what round is he going in? And how do I prepare for that? Okay, well, I like him a lot, but what's going to make me like him a lot more? Maybe I won't get Michelle Tutin in the fifth round as a weird insurance plan. But you lock up that running back position, you're getting RP, RB2, you know, output almost guaranteed the way that Jacksonville's been running this year. That's a perfect example for how I'm attacking this year's running back. Yeah, I mean, we'll get to the running back preview in a minute, but I wish I had like the history of running back rooms in which the starting running back is not going before round five.
Starting point is 00:26:22 And then the backup is going somewhere like round eight plus and how that turned out. Because I did that with Denver like six times because they're the most notorious. And it's again happening again for the wrong goes. But the Jaguars, I'm like, that sounds like I could own both of them. But anyway, I wanted to present the same question to Chuck of whenever you do have a read on somebody, how do you approach that in regards to, and not to talking about like a top five round guy, I think you know, whenever read on a later guy, how do you approach sequencing that up? to where it can be the biggest bang for your buck and you can make a distinct kind of team.
Starting point is 00:27:08 And we're always talking about distinct teams and unique rosters and things like that because we're playing FFP's the main event and there's however many 40,000 teams or something that are going to be competing against us. So how do you treat it whenever you have a player take and a situational read that that is kind of on the French? I think the best way to think about it is drafting back to front. say you are like me and you're a, you know, a disciple of the church of elite tight end. Okay. Then you're going to first start thinking about, all right, how do I get Brock Bowers or Trade McBride?
Starting point is 00:27:46 And looking at ADP, looking at, all right, where's the latest that I fear comfortable taking my tight end one? What if it's not Bowers? What if it's not McBride? For me, this year, it's Tucker Craft. and all right, he's going in the fourth or fifth. So if I'm not going to build with McBride or Bowers in the first or second round, and I'm building with Tucker Kraft in the fifth,
Starting point is 00:28:16 all right, what does it look like if I take a running back and then a receiver and then building backwards into that position? You can do the same thing at running back. Say you're a Bill Kroski-merit guy. And if he's available in the sixth or eighth round, depending on what site you're drafting on, building the rest of your team. So when you slot that in,
Starting point is 00:28:37 you're creating a monster. Again, the whole idea is to create an edge and thinking backwards from how you get that piece in, that's how you win. It's a feeling when it happens too, man. You're waiting for an hour plus and then that guy's still there where you wanted him and you get to call him out.
Starting point is 00:28:59 It's Miller time. And I didn't remember doing it, Marion Barber, and I think, T.O. one year, I was like, I'm going to, I'm going to capitalize on this Tony Romo show that he hadn't really settled in yet. And I got them back to back and it made my team, made my team. And I think I even trade it up to get it. Like, it was, that was the best feeling. You ever trade up and get a guy. Boy, it's, it's nothing better than that in a snake draft. Yeah. I mean, if somebody had the right. read on javanti last year right and they were like i'm going to play it as if javanti is a running back one and stacked every other position until round nine and then took javanti as an rb one and he hits as an rb one like you can't beat that roster you just can't you can't compete you can't compete with what they had access to in those first eight rounds um okay well we'll wrap this thing up here in just a second um so we can jump into some running backs but
Starting point is 00:30:00 I know we're not going to do a full-on, like, look at the first round, look at the second round as a whole type thing. So I wanted to do that right here and just ask you guys, and I can pull up at least ETR's version of those if we want to, and take a look and just see if any of these names just don't make any sense to you or we've just, oh, we've gone too far, or, you know, just feelings about how the first two rounds stack up. Let me pull up ETR's full PPR. See if that's sharing correctly.
Starting point is 00:30:37 Bam. Tech lording all over the place. All right. So we got these little groups going. Obviously, Gibbs and Robinson have kind of separated themselves. Then we get to three pack wide receivers. Then Christian McCaffrey. Then Jet, Amin Ra,
Starting point is 00:30:56 JT C.D. Lamb. So look at that first 12. Tell me if any of that, who are you most worried about in this top 12, Chuck? He's a guy that I've loved for years. Not that it makes me unique, but I think I'm most worried about Christian McCaffrey this year. Just age and usage and electrical substation and just that whole, that whole situation has fragility. and disaster potential, potential, written all over it with the ages and the injury history of all the guys that they are projected to be leaning on. I'm fine with him where he's going, but I'm feeling the most queasy about it this year. I could have done without the owner getting popped for a prostitution thing. Like, I'm not judging.
Starting point is 00:31:50 It was very tired of Perkins restaurant. Yeah. I'm not judging the guy. You got money. You can do whatever you want, brother but it does just always feel like the 49ers are cursed um and i hate that for my guy george kiddle but fits he in that first round this first 12 guys up here who who worries you the most i i can't really say anything more than chuck did i mean it's exactly what i would have said and even you know we probably all have him christian at three or four as running backs are you actually taking him there like if you're just sitting there staring at him can you actually comfortably call out his name. I don't know. I'm sitting there thinking about it to myself. Like, would I just go ahead and take for me? I mean, I actually have a thing for Chase Brown or Sequin. But like all those running
Starting point is 00:32:37 backs just feel way easier to call out on draft night. Yeah, I mean, depending on how I feel about what's coming back to me in the second round, like I, I, I, I, McAfree's down there, I think, behind James Cook for me. I would absolutely take Sequan in front of him. I had no problem doing that. And J.T. in front of him, no question. McCaffrey was a bad runner of the football last year, like just absolutely bad.
Starting point is 00:33:11 And what saved him was just, he had an album Camara year. He got a million balls thrown to him and good for you. And he scored a lot of points and helped us on a couple teams. But he just was not a very, good running back last year and just kind of ppr cheated his way into a good into a pretty good season overall points total wise but i i think the guy that stands out to me and i don't know if i need they have him at 11 rankings over here he's going 13.4 so this is a couple spots back say quan
Starting point is 00:33:46 feels like the one that we're doing a little bit of confusing things on at this point where i I know exactly what's going to happen with the Eagles. When they are quiet and no one's talking about them and their offensive line is healthy and they got rid of their big shit head wide receiver, I know it's coming. It's going to be an Eagles rushing attack death machine. And I don't know if it's going to be enough
Starting point is 00:34:13 for them to win the division and get back to where they were when in Super Bowls. But I think Sean Mannion is probably going to get in there and go like, hey, what works here? Oh, yeah, I'm not going to throw the ball to McKay-Libon. 150 times this season or Devontz Smith. I'm going to run Sequel and Barclay 300 times behind this offensive line that's hopefully fully healthy and, you know, have a rushing threaded quarterback and it seems like a pretty
Starting point is 00:34:38 good formula for success for this group of players I got in front of me and I get to keep my job and not wash out. Well, Mike, you talked about like incorporating real football into fantasy football. That's exactly how I've approached the Eagles this year from an offensive standpoint. like just looking at how they drafted like they got mckellum and they have all these short dudes a receiver i mean probably a lot of a lot of deep patterns and not a lot of over the middle shit and you know it just sets up perfectly to run i mean he might break this year but he's going to get so much volume it's going to be insane to me i keep thinking about that now i don't know if their offense
Starting point is 00:35:14 is actually physically good enough to score a bunch of touchdowns and with sayquan there's always a cap because he has her as a quarterback um which is how i'm approaching cook this year same thing like I don't think either one of these guys are going to be won just because the quarterback scored too many damn touchdowns but they are going to give him he might equal the amount of touches he got two years ago say one yeah and I think we haven't moved any of their wide receivers up into like a really relevant drafting spot devontas Smith is kind of where he always is gotter's kind of always where he always is but take bigsby seems to be creeping up there pretty high for a backup guy that really hasn't done dog shit.
Starting point is 00:35:54 So people are telling you, like, they think the Eagles are going to run the ball a lot better. But they're not taking that, like, medicine with Sequan. They're going, oh, Sequin was kind of ineffective last year. So Tank Bigsby has to be the answer. And I'm going to tell you whatever your question is, Tank Biggsby is not the answer. Like, they're going to give it to Seekwan. And I think he's due for just incredible usage.
Starting point is 00:36:19 and he's shown you what he can do with incredible usage. It's not just a usage opportunity play with him. Caught balls, had breakaway runs, had more breakaway runs than pretty much anybody has ever had in his one explosive season. So I don't know. How are you feeling Chuck on Sequin? Last year I was off of him, just do, he was due for regression. And if you think about fantasy through the lens of regression, both positive and negative, you know, He had the incredible 24, cost me a lot of money because I was not on him.
Starting point is 00:36:55 And, you know, to my detriment, you know, last year we saw their aggression coming off the career high and touches, incredible, you know, usage, incredible breakaway runs, long touchdowns. You saw that come back to Earth last year. They have, like, I don't know, a top three offensive line in the league. They're projected to score a lot of points. They're going to be favorites. They have a great defense.
Starting point is 00:37:17 I'm in on Sequin this year. I'm back on the train. Schedule, maybe the easiest offensive schedule in the entire NFL, too. Yeah. All right, so scrolling, scrolling down, looking at the rest of this second round, that they have, at least in their rankings, which I can sort by PDP if we want to sort that way. That's totally fine. I don't mind doing that.
Starting point is 00:37:39 Wrong way. Let's see. Where do we get? Okay, so we're somewhere around here now. who stands out in this group a lot of running backs again second round is a fun running back territory but who stands out of this group for you uh fits in into that second round a chain obviously up that comes up there once you sort by ADP lamb and Jefferson hovering around that turn and then you just have this swath this
Starting point is 00:38:16 heard of running backs. Unlike last year, I am not, I'm not taking Derek Henry. I am afraid of that clip might fall off. And he cashed in for me last year. I thought it ended up being a nice call, I thought. But I am a little leery of it. Then again, I mean, who knows what their offense is going to be like? They're going to have a healthy quarterback, but I can't pass on Kenneth Walker to take
Starting point is 00:38:41 Derek Henry. And I'm shocked that people are actually doing that. every like i wake up every day and i think i put kenneth walker one running back higher than i had him the day before and a mayor in hampton and uh doesn't really belong that close to him i don't think this year uh and anybody else in there i you know i loved had a had a hard on for ashton genty until he probably rolled his ankle and it's probably a high ankle sprain um who knows i mean that's just a speculation but an ankle that we don't know about it's it's just too risky um i do Chase Brown, though, again, it should be higher than this to me.
Starting point is 00:39:19 But, yeah, that is my main thoughts. AJ Brown's been kind of fun to talk about lately. I'm starting to warm up to him. Yeah, that feels like one that's growing on me quite a bit. Now that I think about when what we've seen water receivers change teams and like immediately as if the GM and coach are trying to show you how smart they are and how right they are. just saturate the guy with targets and make it work. So AJ Brown's kind of growing on me a little bit.
Starting point is 00:39:50 How about you, Chuck? Who stands out in the second for you? On the negative side, I'm going to, you know, keep being a big dog Derek Henry Fader. I think it's year four or five. And the odds have never been more in my favor. It's going to happen this year. Keep playing the seeds. The tree will grow at some point.
Starting point is 00:40:12 One day it's going to work. I mean, I'm also honestly warming to Chase Brown a lot. The Bengals have done nothing to address any of their other past catchers. Their tight end room is Mike Jaseki and. Eric All. You say his name. Say Eric All's name, okay? Yeah, he's Eric Summer at this point.
Starting point is 00:40:34 Tanner Hudson, all the great whites that tied in. There's an Ivy League tied end in the league. they play for the Bengals, I promise. Sorry, I'd get my Eric all a shout out in there. Continue, I apologize. I wanted to be really in on Amarian Hampton, but just all of the coach speak coming out of the Chargers this year is that they're going to use three running backs,
Starting point is 00:41:01 and while I still expect Hampton to lead that charge in a great offense with what should be a much better offensive line, assuming health, I agree. this this might be a little a little rich for my blood i'm i'm spoiler alert i'm planning a flag on kenneth walker this year so i'm i'm in on that nice uh the things i see here that like kind of stand out to me and if we look at this six months from now we go what the hell were we thinking um maybe the last time and only time since rookie season jason jesusson jefferson that we can get Justin Jefferson anyway in the second round.
Starting point is 00:41:43 And outside of like the top eight picks, you know, I don't think he's going to get back to 1,800 yards, Justin Jefferson, but I think he could absolutely be, do what George Pickens did last year, which is about 1,500 yards and almost 10 touchdowns. Gentie's making me sad. I am warming up to Chase Brown that people don't know enough about offensive lines, lines and they just keep talking about offensive lines as if they carry over year to year. And the Browns offensive line is, I think, are Bengals, sorry, is actually good now.
Starting point is 00:42:22 And I think it's middle, middle of the pack, which is just the best they ever had. Yeah, the best they've ever had. It's the best line they've ever had. It's a long time. The Hampton stuff does scare me a little bit with Keat Mitchell and Money, but all there. And that's a team that, you know, Some teams I'm going to call out their running backs where you do the running back preview here in a minute and go, I just don't think they're going to give him the usage because they're planning on this man making the playoffs and don't want him to get hurt and burn out by then.
Starting point is 00:42:49 Ryan Hampton, I'm not even sure what he is yet. I don't think they are either. So I don't know why they're going to split this backfield in the way that I feel like they're going to with Keaton Mitchell and Kamani-Badall. But I feel like we're going to get pretty frustrated with the Marion Hampton. the one down there at the bottom that I would flip for sure is AJ Brown over Drake London. The vibes out of the Falcons, at least their passing game might be as bad as it gets. To his teammates are just like, what the fuck is this, dude? And Drake May is, he'll be by far the most talented wide receiver Drake May has ever played with.
Starting point is 00:43:32 and I just want to see that unleashed and I want to see AJ Brown motivated him playing for Mike Braybill again and I would put AJ Brown a healthy margin above Drake London and then I'd have Brock over Tram McBride
Starting point is 00:43:47 and looks like they do too and their difference yeah their rankings they're right here quick you brought up Atlanta I mean don't we think Pennix is eventually going to take over that have that job he has to he has to
Starting point is 00:44:00 and that's kind of where I fall on Drake London because he's this guy. Yeah. And I'm not, I can't, you know, just bail on Drake London when I'm, I'm, I feel fairly confident that he's going to get at least 14 or 15 games with Pinnock's if he can see. And man, when,
Starting point is 00:44:18 when they're on the field together, he's locked into Drake London. And I'm not giving up on that yet. I think the tough thing is like, they're kind of up here in their island. And then you get down to these guys, which I think are the right to be a cut below. Wow. That's far for him.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Yeah. Well, yeah, it's just him now. It's just the Nico show. Take Del. I think Del had like a setback and obviously what happened to Jaden Higgins. So it's the Nico show. But they're kind of up here in an island in the 1820 territory of wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:44:56 So if you need a wide receiver and you're determined to get a wide receiver before, you exit the second round in this area like ADP is going to be telling you to go here and you got to have some balls to go down here to be honest. So, okay, I just wanted to brief over you the of the first two rounds because we don't always do that kind of stuff. And as I'm doing this, I'm realizing I was moving my mouse pointer on my on the stream yard page instead of on the ECR page. So you can even see what else. We're just not in their heads.
Starting point is 00:45:31 Yeah, I don't just talk about that. All right. I'm going to pull that off, so I don't do any more dumb shit. But, okay. All right, that's the overview. Hopefully that was helpful. We're always available for questions, too. Anyway, as just, hey, I'm playing in this type of league.
Starting point is 00:45:45 How would you address first three picks? Something like that. Like, that's easy shit for us. We can hit us on Twitter. Machine Sports at whatever fits his handle is. Sooner Fits. It fits films it. Fitz films it.
Starting point is 00:45:58 I almost gave me out your email. Whatever. And the Chuck P. Is that it? It is that? Okay, that's it. I just meant, is there any more else on the name? Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:14 Yeah, you can always tweet or this, man. Send us some questions. I don't mind. I love talking fantasy with any, everybody. So if you got a league coming up and you're like, hey, how would you do this in a Superflex? How would you do this in a whatever? We're here for you.
Starting point is 00:46:27 But we're going to, we're going to, Stop this recording and jump into the running back preview is next on action is the juice. The action is the juice year number 11, the Kyrie Irving of versions of additions. I'm Mike Marshall. He is Chris Fitzpatrick and that is Chuck Perry. Here to help you win your league and here to help you draft the right goddamn running backs, guys. That's the whole game. That's the whole trick. or at least it has been over the last
Starting point is 00:47:03 year and a half as the running backs have stayed healthy. The opportunities have not popped up for backup running backs. If you're a zero RAB junkie and maybe a piss boy might not have been a great
Starting point is 00:47:15 run for you the last 24 months. But if you pick them right, you can still do big things. So let's jump into running backs. Obviously, there's top two players in fantasy football are running backs right now,
Starting point is 00:47:35 Jamir Gibbs and Bijon Robinson. Anybody else approaching those two for you guys, even in the atmosphere at this moment in time, at the running back position, guys that can put up 20 points, 20 points a game pretty consistently and maybe even to approach that legendary running back status of, you know, 24, 25 points. how you feel and fits?
Starting point is 00:48:02 I haven't considered anybody else at those top two spots. It was always about which one of those two, and it's kind of a what's your flavor. And I love both of these guys for obvious reasons, but Stefanski was the first thing that jumped out of me. I'm like, oh, he gets a running back like that. Like we saw what he did with Dalvin Cook. We saw what he did with Nick Chubb repeatedly and Cream Hunt.
Starting point is 00:48:26 And then you get Jemar Gibbs, who's putting up these kinds of numbers, when he gets 20th. And carries inside the five, and he's still, you know, what are you, 18 touchdowns last year. I don't see anybody else who I would depend on to get to that plateau. I, you know, we talked a little bit in the opener about Sequin. He's one of those kinds of guys who could potentially touch that. I even had heard, I don't know if you guys ever listen to Jeff Mann's,
Starting point is 00:48:54 kind of an entertaining listen on Sirius Radio. He had, he had Gentia, too. I would never have him that high. I did have him close to that until the injury. But with the usage with J.T. And obviously Christian McCaffrey, I wasn't willing to even tempt fate there. And then James Cook, you know,
Starting point is 00:49:18 there's too many, you know, running or there's too many touchdowns being scored by their quarterback. And that's kind of where I fell with Barkley as well. Just there's just too much upside with those two guys to really approach. How about you, Chuck? Yeah, I think the top two picks are correctly ordered, and I think there's a clear tier break after that. I don't think there's any reason to consider anything else at one and two. I mean, we've talked poorly about him in the last show, but I mean, Christian McCaffrey is going to have a very, very high expected fantasy points output, especially in a PPR league every week.
Starting point is 00:49:53 And he's going to project for 20-ish. And so for as long as he's healthy and as long as there's fragility and instability around him, like he's going to be the closest thing on a points per game basis that you're going to get at the position. So even though I'm scared of him this year, it's not comfortable to pass him up in a PPR league at RB3. Yeah, I mean, if I had to pick, if I had to put money on some of these guys that, are down the board a little bit at running back to say if anybody is going to bump Gibbs or Bijon out of the one-two spots, which I think it's it's correctly layered right now. Those guys are supreme talents on good enough offenses, good enough offensive lines,
Starting point is 00:50:48 with smart enough coaches to get them the ball, and their offenses are going to score enough points, and they catch passes. So it kind of checks all the boxes that like I usually worry about for running back whenever I start, you know, does this guy have an edge or not over this other guy, depending on what's going on? And I think those guys are stacked correctly. But if I'm going to pick a couple names, they're a little bit down the board that I think could challenge them for running back supremacy this year. I think in order of confidence, I think I would go Jonathan Taylor. Sequin Barclay and Devon A-Chain. And CMC is obviously kind of the chalky answer of next contender,
Starting point is 00:51:39 just because flat-out points from catching seven passes a game or whatever he's going to do. But the rushing efficiency is just, when a player starts showing you that they're aging at a skill set, just kind of believe them. I don't know. They need the 49ers desperately needed another running back to hammer on the rush attempts. And unless they think Kalin Black is the answer there,
Starting point is 00:52:09 like they just didn't answer that question for themselves, which feels kind of silly. And I'm going to be supremely pissed off if a guy like Sean Tucker gets released and ends up a 49er, that's going to upset me. not fantasy-wise, but just as a cowboy fit. And so McCaffrey worries me, but Jonathan Taylor, obviously people have him down the board at touch. I mean, R.E.4 is not really down the board,
Starting point is 00:52:41 but ninth overall is where ETR has him, and that's behind where he's getting drafted in ADP, which kind of signals a fade from them. I think the case for JT being down the board that people would make is like, the Colts had a historically good offense through 10 weeks last year, and no one expects the Colts to have an historically good offense again. And that's fair.
Starting point is 00:53:05 But I also don't expect, Alex Pierce probably won't be playing for a lot of that. So I don't expect points going there. I don't expect points are not going to Michael Pittman because he is playing elsewhere. It makes me kind of like Tyler Warren, thinking about how bad the rest of their past catchers are. But I don't expect the Colts to be on that level. I think JT can kind of do the same exact thing,
Starting point is 00:53:30 even if they do have a worse offense. Obviously, the scoring opportunities might be limited. Yeah, that's where I was going to raise the flag on Jonathan Taylor, is that I don't have it in front of me how many times I was trying to find this earlier. It's a little bit of research. You got to do a lot there, but Jonathan Taylor inside, I think he had like 10 one-yard touchdown runs, something like that.
Starting point is 00:53:51 And while it's a positive that he's going to get all that, stuff. I just can't see them getting that many easy touchdowns. That's going to come down for sure, I would think. But I mean, your point is well taken. Like he's going to get all the shit. And they have a Grado line. Schedule sets up nicely. They have a top three schedule, you know, by a lot of these fantasy prognosticators. So he has one of the best situations in fantasy football. But he, that 370, that magical number, he was one short of that. Right. So does the number really matter? Yeah, yeah, let's find out if that matters. And just all the injury stuff around them,
Starting point is 00:54:29 I mean, the quarterback's coming off in Achilles. They got Tyler Warren's got, I think, a growing right now. Alec Pierce, like he said, he's still in the Puppliss as far as I know. Downs got hurt today, I think. Oh, perfect. Like, Jesus, like everything keeps happening. And, of course, they pretty arguably be arguably the best wide receiver they've had in the last three or four years. So there's just a lot of stink around that offense right now.
Starting point is 00:54:52 Doesn't mean he can't overcome some of it, but that's, I have him at six right now. Yeah, no, I think, I think that's fair. I think ETR had him at nine, which is like a little mini-fade. It's kind of like as big as you can stake somebody the wrong way that early in a draft. To answer your question, seven touchdowns from the one yard and two touchdowns from the three-yard line for JT last year. And so I don't know, what are your feelings on JT right now, Chuck? I don't know, he kind of defies.
Starting point is 00:55:33 He's almost in that Derek Henry like defies logic sometimes, kind of area. I mean, he's been RB1 overall in the past. And the way you get there as a non-pass catching running back is, you know, outperforming, expected touchdowns, which is not sticky year to year. and long breakaway runs, which are not sticky year to year. Look at Sequin Barclay, we just talked about. I'm fine with him. I like him more in a half-p-R or a standard-setting league,
Starting point is 00:56:05 but I'm not fading him at that part of the draft. I think he did. He caught 46 balls last year, which is career high. You know, does that stay? I don't know. I don't know. There's two big, those are the two big question marks. Does he get the rushing touchdowns from within the five-yard line?
Starting point is 00:56:31 Probably not. Or let's just hedge, say 60 to 70% of that happens. And then does he get the passing game work that he got last year? And I don't know if it has targets on here. Oh, does that targets? 55 targets, 46 receptions, which is great for him. Does that copy? Does that copy and paste?
Starting point is 00:56:52 I don't know because it hasn't before. And so, but if I'm going to challenge, I'm thinking of somebody that could defy logic in the way that Jonathan Taylor has in the past. And to be clear, when he was RB1, those were really down RV years, if you remember. The other guy, Sequin,
Starting point is 00:57:12 we've kind of talked through Seekwon quite a bit if we've seen it as recently as, you know, 14 months ago of him being the most feared offensive weapon in football. And I think the reasons last year for it not happening was Kevin Petulow, Lane Johnson injury, and they were in a bit of an identity crisis and kind of obviously having a lot of intert turmoil last year enough to where they traded a wide receiver that's going in the top two rounds of fantasy football draft.
Starting point is 00:57:46 So is that enough for me to say Eagles are back, ground and pound, 350 touches for for Sequin is obvious. And, you know, if you go by yards per touch on him, that means like 2,200 total yards. If you go by normal Sequin measurements. So then we touch Sequin, talked on him quite a bit. The other guy that I think we're kind of being dumb on as an industry is Devon A chain. and I'm interested in either of you are following me down this rabbit hole, but I feel like we do this a lot with a team that has like this glaring cyst on them that is no passing game and a quarterback that we had already one time given up on. And we just downgrade that offense and we double count some of this shit.
Starting point is 00:58:52 And A chain wasn't on a good offense last year. That was awful. Still delivered. Jeff Halfley's talking about giving him the ball so much that he's going to drag him to the locker room afterwards. Like that was a quote from their coach, their new head coach, was, I'm going to give him the ball so much that I'm going to carry him to the locker room after the game.
Starting point is 00:59:14 Okay. That sounds pretty cool. Really no competition in that backfield. if they're going to get first downs, I think option probably one, two, three is Devon A chain. And then option four is Malik Will is probably running it. I know the dolphins aren't fun. I know they're going to suck. Maybe not as bad as people think.
Starting point is 00:59:37 I don't know if they're going to be one of those teams. It's like obviously staking a claim for the arch banding sweepstakes out of the gate, week one. But I don't know. I could see A chain getting more touches than he has ever gotten. in his life and them just going absolute hero ball A chain and I know what that looks like once he gets enough touches because he is I don't know he's kind of unlike any other running back since Jammar Charles in that front so how are you feeling on A chain Chuck? Yeah he's been a tough guy to kind of work through this year because last year the dolphins
Starting point is 01:00:15 were actually better than people remember. I mean, yeah, their win-loss records sucked, but I think they were pretty much league average in terms of like the time they spent leading through games. They're worse this year. And I don't think anybody would say that their offensive environment is better than they were last year. At the same time, they have a rushing quarterback now.
Starting point is 01:00:37 And we've seen throughout history that when a running back is playing with a rushing quarterback, their efficiency goes up. And A chain is already an incredibly efficient running back. And if you're going to tell me that you've got an efficient running back in a potentially more efficient situation who's going to get a lot of volume and he's already shown that he can perform near the very top of the position in terms of points per game, why is everyone tripping all over themselves to fade that guy? he's it's it's it's it's it's it's kind of a mess but i'm fine with a chan and back of the second round and if he falls to the third then yeah let's go yeah the the question i think that pops up immediately is like can you get to that um legendary running back kind of level
Starting point is 01:01:31 with only having like 10 touchdowns because that could be a realistic outcome for A.J. Is can you, can you get to 23 points a game, scoring 11 total touchdowns next year? Do they have enough on the outside to take attention away from them? We don't really know the answer to that. I believe in Washington,
Starting point is 01:01:56 they got the rookie and a quarterback. We don't know. I mean, he actually, Malik Willis has been, it surprised me at times. I think what was he, Green Bay a couple years ago where he stepped in there and did some day,
Starting point is 01:02:09 And I was like, okay, because when he started, wasn't he a Titan? And he was a titan. And he didn't look like he knew how to run a college offense, let alone an NFL offense. And he is, he's drastically improved. Now, a lot of people push back on whatever they think about Bobby Sloick. But, and he runs a lot of play action, which may or may not negate some of, um, A chance, uh, reception total. But yeah, he's going to get all the shit and that it's a safe floor. I mean, that's the one way to look at it.
Starting point is 01:02:39 you know, if people are falling on them. And I know, I bet you half the drafts out there are like, no, Miami sucks, not touch them. He's got to be following, falling further than some of these mocks have him falling. You know, I haven't done any actual drafts, but if he fell to me in late, like Chuck said, late second. He's in that top, you know, 11 or 12 backs, would never have him falling anywhere past that,
Starting point is 01:03:03 which I think he probably is in some leagues. Yeah, I think he is absolutely. like I'm looking at the ETR rank and I'm like I don't know if that's completely accurate this might be updated because he's like ADP 12 overall and I'm like I just haven't really seen that in a while I've seen him going mid-second pretty consistently so I mean I get the if you're really hyped about a different player in that stretch and you just you know we just look at look at that mid-second round if you just really, really want to mistake one of those dudes, like, cool. Whenever you get best, just that opening like that opening lip of the second. And depending on what you've done in the first, A-Chane's there. Like, he's such an easy click for me once you get deep into the second round.
Starting point is 01:04:03 And no one else over there offers that kind of upside to me. And I'm interested to see, you know, Crayne does his legendary running back series. And he's alluded to it a couple times. He's like, man, when I put A chain into my stuff, like, my projection stuff, like, it says he's going to be really fucking good.
Starting point is 01:04:24 Like, it says, enter this many inputs for this player, even on a bad offense. Like, it's not going to be the worst offense that's ever existed. It's funny. I covered him in high school.
Starting point is 01:04:38 I remember interviewing him, and I went and watched him play and the rest of the team was not very good but they were in the like i don't know the quarterfinals of the playoffs and he was i think he got like 30 carries you know they're throwing the ball to him every time he's returning all the kicks on all the puns um he's the other guy that would you know do an interview wasn't very good but but he uh i the kid's tough man i mean i think he can handle it if if he can just not get injured like he's he you know stamina-wise like that's all it's all he's ever done he's you know he he's you know he he's He is Hall of Fame level ability if he ever just got on the right situation going forward the rest of his career.
Starting point is 01:05:18 I just don't know if this might be as bad as it's ever going to be for him. Yeah. And I'm kind of talking myself out of Miami being the worst team in football. People like kind of jump to that automatically because maybe they are run like the worst team in football where they're paying to us. I think $45 million worth worth the dead cap. This year, same next year. Yeah, for two years.
Starting point is 01:05:49 And they are a bit of a clown show, but like, I don't know, man. Like, I think there are going to be three or four teams that I can pick out that are absolutely worse and just dreadful. So I don't know. I think we're kind of overreacting on Miami and I'll get off my soapbox there.
Starting point is 01:06:04 But let's pull up the My Guys page. and just kind of take a look at that we don't mind share screen boom share there we go all right so here's my guys at the top i made a pretty healthy list just because these are guys that i wanted to touch on at some point um we've talked quite a bit about sequan uh don't need really touch on that um Kenneth walker i think we're is this a scary all unanimous unanimously on board the K Walker boat this year? Not for me. We've got really good company.
Starting point is 01:06:55 I mean, how long we've been waiting for the chiefs to have a legitimate rushing threat? And now they have it this year. I realize the rest of the offense is not as sexy as it has been in years past, and Mahomes is coming off an injury. But this is the best running back they've had
Starting point is 01:07:10 since Kareem Hunt started doing crimes. Like, I mean, And the setup is great. And I think you're going to see Kenneth Walker actually catching passes this year, which is the yeah, but on him for the last two or three years. So yeah, he's an absolute target in the second round.
Starting point is 01:07:32 No, Fitch, you talked about K Walker earlier, but go ahead, sorry. Yeah, and he doesn't have to, you know,
Starting point is 01:07:37 he doesn't have to play on third downs to catch passes. We've seen, you know, Kansas City will throw plenty to the running backs on early downs. The, the only trepidation I have, have really with him is, you know, they've got a quarterback, their entire franchise, who's coming off an ACL tear. And so how much is he going to be able to protect him?
Starting point is 01:07:58 Are they going to leave him in order to block for Mahomes? Don't know. That's the one thing. And how good is that offense going to be with Mahomes not being in what he's been in the past? That's really all I have, the only questions I have for that team and him. I mean, what was, I have the stat in there that he was number three in NFL explosives last season. and Kansas City was second to last in that, and explosive carries last year.
Starting point is 01:08:22 It's a match. It's perfect. It's really perfect. I mean, and it was, and it hit like that. I think we were even on a text thread when it happened. We talked about it.
Starting point is 01:08:30 Like, oh, we thought, I think we probably were like, he might go middle first in upcoming fantasy drafts. And he's not, hasn't really got anywhere near there. Not that I've seen.
Starting point is 01:08:42 And they have the number 80 line. He does have a new foot injury, which is a little weird. which is like, here we go again. Kenneth Walker. He has a pretty bad injury history. That's the scary thing with him. All things considered, though.
Starting point is 01:08:57 I mean, I have him at eight right now, but again, like I said, I think I said, maybe all, every day, I wake up every day. It's like one spot. I'm like, yeah, yeah, I could see him ahead of him too. I keep bumping him up. Yeah, I think we're all in agreement on, on Kenneth Walker being a target at the current ADP, which is almost 18 overall. pretty easy click there mid-second.
Starting point is 01:09:20 A-chains on my list, because I think we're all just kind of being silly, overreacting a touch, as if the dolphins are going to have some level of outlier, bad offense, and not just in normal bad mode. And then you can probably tell how I'm attacking the draft this year because there's a gap from 18 to, I think, 49. and the running back ADP. And I'm kind of getting, and I don't want to, I'm kind of getting Travis Etienne pilled a little bit of,
Starting point is 01:10:00 that O-Lines healthy, Tyler Shuck's actually pretty good. They're going to move the ball whenever Jordan Tyson gets back. And that's going to be, they're going to be in the red zone pretty consistently. And Etienne's the only guy, now that Cameras hurt too. So it's like a couple different things are happening with the Saints that are selling me on a player that I traditionally do not like. To be clear. Not a fan of Etienne. Or I guess he wants us to call him A-Chain now, which I just can't look at that name and fundamentally agree with you.
Starting point is 01:10:36 But Godspeed, brother. But then David Montgomery is going to be one of my most drafted, most own players this year. I know people will go like, uh, looks like a dead zone back. And okay, that's fair. That's fine. Or not fair, but that's fine. If you want to label it that way, there's always guys in the dead zone that deliver more either touchdown-wise or get more backfield share than you anticipated or end up do playing on third down or end up do catching more passes.
Starting point is 01:11:13 And then they jump out of the dead zone. And I consider myself a pretty good, um, prognosticator of which one of these running backs is going to leap out of the dead zone each year. I've done a pretty good job of it. I mean, not even the good dead zones a thing anymore. But, you know, I heard that earlier, listening to something. And this is an offense that stubbornly made Joe Mix in a goddamn thing when he was not very good football player anymore. They made Woody Marks the thing last year. They give David Montgomery 300 touches, see what happens.
Starting point is 01:11:51 Like, let's just go for it. He catches more passes than people really think ever, like, pay attention to him because they're all tantalized by Jemir Gibbs. And the real football thing that I think people aren't really considering or don't know or don't care to know is I've heard people just like quoting like that Texans offensive lines would be bad. And I'm like, yeah, they might be bad for C.J. Stroud's seven step drops. Sure.
Starting point is 01:12:14 they drafted two guards who are road grading rock-eating sons of bitches who keep getting in fights with other teams like every chance they get to practice in preseason game with other teams healing rutland is getting in a fight and they drafted those guys because they wanted that they wanted to be badass as an offensive line and so it least the interior of that I feel pretty good about with what they've invested. And it's not going to be the same old same Texans offensive line. And that's where David Montgomery is going to do his work.
Starting point is 01:12:54 You don't want Dave Montgomery running 30, you know, stretch to the edge runs throughout the game anyway. And I'm just like, man, you can tell me I can get David Montgomery in the fifth round as my RB2. And I can play with the rest of those picks in front of that. Like I can unlock a lot of shit. how do you feel about that call out chuck yeah i think he's the perfect guy for an anchor rb build where you know say you took CMC gibbs somebody like that early in the first round and then you do receiver tight-in receiver and then you're coming back to running back i think he's a perfect just high floor running back to me just thinking about the way the texans want to play
Starting point is 01:13:39 that defense is going to keep them in every game i think they're going to win a lot of 21 to 14, 24 to 17 type games and David Montgomery is going to be averaging 20 to 25 carries a week. Like, yeah, absolutely. What do you think that's? I feel like Woody might get a little more work than we're talking about here. I do pretty good. I don't know. Yards per carry weren't great last year.
Starting point is 01:14:06 But I feel like that's maybe around high for me to take Moni there. I love Montgomery. I've always loved him. I was on him when he came in with the Bears. But I see your point, Chuck, where you're talking about their defense, setting them up for advantageous situations for the running game.
Starting point is 01:14:26 And their schedule does, it looks pretty light, you know, just from preseason perspective. But I do think he's a kind of guy that would fall lower than what that ADP says too. It's not a sexy name. Nothing on the Texans is sexy. He would be a guy for,
Starting point is 01:14:42 me to keep keep eyes on if he's falling further than that and i love i love what you got coming up here and in his heart of hearts i think demico ryan's would like to have six possessions each game and to control the ball for nine minutes each time and get six field goals and hold the other team to 10 points. I think that he would think that's really badass football. Yeah, he played with David Carr for most of his career. Yeah, and he's a middle
Starting point is 01:15:20 linebacker and like that's, I feel like that's his mentality is like not even looking at the scoreboard for to tell him who won. It's like how many, how many licks did we get in? So Montgomery, I think just fits that what they're looking for. Next player in my list is as Bayshel to set the franchise, or not the franchise, the league record for size speed score
Starting point is 01:15:43 whenever he was at the combine year before last, so I was already gone, he was definitely a target last year whenever he was probably a 10th, 11th round pick. Creeping up to end of 5th, 6th round, but this is, and I should have just made a list of these guys. And I'm sorry I didn't,
Starting point is 01:16:03 but I'm going to bring it up here for people that are listening and watching. We talked about it, on the on the intro in the preview pod but create a roll of X in your head of backfields where guys the RV one is not going and let's say in the top four rounds and then the backup is attainable if you're willing to reach half a round I'm thinking of your jaguars I'm thinking of your Broncos. I'm thinking of your Vikings. And these teams need to be
Starting point is 01:16:37 you know, relevant teams. I wouldn't want to own the backfield of trying to think of a good example. The offense I think is just going to be absolutely pitiful and I don't want Tennessee. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:16:53 I don't necessarily want Pollard and Tosier Spears. You know, I could do it. But that one's not going to excited that'd be that'd be like the bottom of the list yeah of this type of thing that i'd want to approach but bachel tooting when he did get run late in the season i thought showed enough chris rodriguez i know you're a chris rodriguez guy and i'm fine owning chris rodriguez it costs right now but like it's a long track record of football teams giving up on chris rodriguez this is a coach that this is a coach that knows him well though he he does and he does he does
Starting point is 01:17:29 But sometimes that means like, I know you will. We're boys, right? So you'll take out the trash. You're my guy if my other guy gets hurt. Yeah, yeah. Like, I know I can lean on you if the good guy, a good player gets hurt, right? Or it can, hey, we need some blitz pickups. Chris, get out there.
Starting point is 01:17:49 Get out there and protect my quarterback for me. Or it's, you know, third and two. Get out there and bang your head against the wall and go get two and a half yards for me. But Rachel Tudin. makes my list. He's, depending on what league you're playing in, like, you're either, like, really going to have a chance at Beisseltuton
Starting point is 01:18:08 and probably in, like, the even sixth round in some home leagues. FFPC might be, like, a fourth round guy. So you're either, like, really going to have a chance at Bechel Tootin and everyone's going to go, like, who is this guy you just drafted? Or there's going to be so many sharps on him that you're not even going to sniff the area in which Tootin goes.
Starting point is 01:18:28 So are we doing a little toot tooth this year, Chuck? I think one of the edges to be found in when you're doing research is looking at ADP differences in home leagues versus high stakes leagues. And Beychal Tootin is the poster boy for that this year. In home leagues on Yahoo, ESPN Sleeper, his ADP is either 72, 63, or 62.5. that's on Yahoo Sleeper and ESPN Home League type sites. FFPC, 53.9, almost a round ahead. So the sharps are on Bayshaltutin. The other point that I want to bring up is ambiguous backfields in offenses that everyone's on.
Starting point is 01:19:16 People like the Jags this year, they have all the pass catchers. People are higher, rather on Trevor Lawrence. these are opportunities to wildly outperform ADP. And I think if there's going to be a Jaguars back who outperforms ADP, it's going to be the young explosive guy. And so absolutely I love Beechal Tudin. Ideally, as an RB3, maybe an RB4, but in most home leagues, you're going to be able to get him there.
Starting point is 01:19:47 How about you, Fitz? I'm basically, you know, we talked about like working from the back to front that is definitely a backfield that I'm trying to corner um I don't know if I put him in there or not I put in Rodriguez but I might as well have put Tutin in there he just wasn't enough ahead of the ADP for me to justify it putting on this specific list but I that's a big part of what I'm doing and my auction this year is cornering that backfield um as it's they just will always produce running backs it seems like whatever they do jacksaville they've got they've had turnover in the coaching staff but some of those guys have stayed and that's just
Starting point is 01:20:24 just going to happen. They're going to, even though I think the offensive line is the rank 30th, I had them in there, but their schedule sets up really nicely. And we've seen them, you know, work well with shit offensive lines. And I remember watching Tudin's tape, and I didn't know quite with the make of them because he was playing for in the ACC and for Virginia Tech. But he just kept pushing the pile forward. I remember that.
Starting point is 01:20:47 And as you mentioned, he was, he scored high in the underwear Olympics. and I'm all about, again, that backfield and Rodriguez was, I don't know what you have in as his ADP, but that's a way to win. That's your Denver Broncos formula there, Mike. Yeah, and there was, I haven't watched their preseason games, and I don't know Tutans participated in their preseason games at all, but they had a joint practice, I think, after week one,
Starting point is 01:21:19 I can't remember who it was with, but it was just like Tudin was the best player in the field. Like he was just fucking roasting dudes. And I can see how that can work in a joint practice whenever you can run a 429 at 200 plus pounds. I was hesitant to put D'Andre Swift on here. And at 47, I might be a little bit hesitant on D'Andre Swift. I'd never see him go there. So I'm going to say, I usually see John R. Swift later down the board.
Starting point is 01:21:57 But I don't know. There's something about a Ben Johnson offense and a running back that's just good enough and can get a track to run on. I think they were top three in yards before contact last year. I actually had it pulled up over here. Let me see if I can find it. my nun guy was the yards before contact star he was ninth last year and uh yards per carry before contact no um yeah there's second yards before contact so that is schemed up in good offensive line play yes so you get in a runway before anybody touches the running back that is offensive line and that is scheme um a lot of split zone stuff um that ben johnson will run and I'm just not going to doubt it anymore that the bears are probably going to have it's these offensive coordinators that we all think of and have like pretty high esteem and bank a lot of
Starting point is 01:23:04 stuff off their passing games bin johnson leom cohen michael flur even all those dudes come from a place of really being able to get chunk plays out of the running game and being able to establish it and being able to run even when the defense knows you're going to run. And Ben Jotson, the Bears were so good last year before Caleb started playing, you know, Superman ball and Colston Loveland arrived on the scene because they were just gashing the living shit out of defenses with just doses of Diorre Swift and Kyle Munung guy. And I think everyone's going to get out of their skis worrying about Caleb and Luther Burden and Colston and Romo Dunzee and even Colquemette some.
Starting point is 01:23:57 And they're going to forget that this guy is going to scheme advantageous run scenarios over and over for his running backs. And while you're sitting there waiting for him to, you know, hit you with the sniper rifle over the top of Colson Lover and whatever, he's just giving you body blow after body blow. up the middle with Swift and Minangai. So I think they're going to go right back to it. I don't think they, I think he found something that works with this offensive line in Swift. So I was looking at it. It took me a minute.
Starting point is 01:24:30 He was the last person I added. I did all these other guys. And then I went, I think I liked Yondry Swift. I think Yondry Swift is mispriced this year. This ADP we're looking at is either his Yahoo or his FFPC ADP. And that's kind of the higher end. But on sleeper, on ESPN, his ADP is like at least around later, like 63, 59 overall. And he's in a good offense with a good offensive line.
Starting point is 01:25:01 They're going to score a lot of points. I think if there's, you know, a situational knock to be had on him, it's their defense. And, you know, if they're going to be the shootout team that people are expecting, you know, maybe they're not trying to control the clock and feed D'Andre Swift a lot, but absolutely another perfect RB2. He's 70% of Jamir Gibbs, basically. I mean, we hate to plug and play with these offensive coordinators with these talent, but he's pretty much doing what he was doing in Detroit,
Starting point is 01:25:38 and he's getting a lot of the same production. He just doesn't quite have the level of talent, but he's getting there. And I just love what he's doing. And that's why I have my, we'll see it later, but my young guy. It's basically like, if I can't get the Jaguar's backfield cornered, I'm going to go for that Bears' backfield. It's going to be more expensive.
Starting point is 01:26:00 But every time I would just sit there on a Sunday and look up and be like, fuck, he's already doing it, DeAndre Swift. And I didn't believe, I didn't really have that much thought about Swift last year coming in. Every weekend, I was like, man, I missed it. I missed it on him. And I don't want to, I don't want to miss it again if I had the opportunity. for that cost. It's great.
Starting point is 01:26:22 Moving down the list, RJ Harvey's guy that I, you know, it's debatable my actual player take on him, but like in combination with Jonah Coleman, who's going super duper late, I think I actually have Jonah Coleman done here. Sorry. There he is.
Starting point is 01:26:39 In combination with Jonah Coleman, I think R.J. Harvey is, he's being priced down here because of Jonah Coleman. why not take both of them? Like, it's not a super high cost. It is seventh, eighth round, RJ Harvey. And he and Trevionanderson are, like, so confusing to me. I think to everybody, like, everyone would have just like a different dollar value on both of them.
Starting point is 01:27:06 But I think I heard Sean Siegel say that when have we ever had rookie running backs that hit like those two guys hit and scored 200 plus points? points as rookies in muddy backfields ever go into their sophomore year this low. Yeah. Doesn't happen. I don't know Harvey's was a lot of explosive plays and some explosive passing work. And everyone acts like that's not real. And I don't know. It takes a guy doing it for whatever extended amount of time, Kenneth Walker's done it for people to go,
Starting point is 01:27:48 Oh, that's just his play style. It doesn't matter if he has negative three, one yard, negative three, as long as that fourth one is a 23-yarder. And that's kind of what I saw at RJ Harvey. Like, not great vision, but whenever he can get there, and the Broncos have a really good offensive line. It didn't play as well last year, I think, as they were ranked or as they probably expected.
Starting point is 01:28:12 But they were fine, and he had a lot of explosive plays in the passing game. and he was scoring long touchdowns every week when you looked up. And you're telling me I can get that in the eighth round. And then I can come back and take Jonah Coleman. It looks like in the 16th round. Okay. Yeah, I'll place that bet. Are we punting?
Starting point is 01:28:32 Is the fantasy industry punting on J.K. Dobbins? And just assuming that when you hear soft tissue and preseason, you're like, fuck that guy. Yeah. I think so. but then like we took him last year and got what six to eight use really usable weeks beginning of the season because we were running back needy and I was like you know we can answer that bell pretty early that's my man jk what the hell is Sean Payton doing with this oh it's a soft
Starting point is 01:29:00 tissue I don't know if I've ever heard a coach just say yeah soft tissue and and media's like oh okay no perfect yeah that sounds good that really is soft most the tissues are soft off. Where's the hard tissue? I'm tempted in my auction league that he might end up being like a $10 or $15 player. I'd be like, okay. You know, if he can overcome that shit, I sure. I mean, I'll take a flyer on J.K. Dobbins if he's kind of becoming an afterthought with the best offensive line. And he's going to be the starter, probably getting more of the goal line touches, I would guess, if he's healthy.
Starting point is 01:29:40 Big F. Yeah, I mean, he hits a couple. of the like circles on the Venn diagram that'll grow out the fantasy community of recurring injury guy trapback guy a dozen catch passes and probably isn't the goal line guy and then obviously very mixed backfield usage with three different dudes but there's going to be weeks it they're probably the first month or two of the year year, in which J.K. Dobbins is giving you an extremely usable 12 to 14 points. If he's starting and he's healthy and he's on your roster, you're probably playing
Starting point is 01:30:21 him in almost every scenario, unless you only start two running backs and you went high and you've got two studs early. But you see him, if he's on your roster, you're starting him almost every week. And he looks like he's going, he's going about 92 to 100 range. down there. In theory, you could get all three if you really wanted to. I wouldn't. That feels kind of overkill me.
Starting point is 01:30:47 Save your, save your dad for a boy. Any objections to RJ Harvey? Or do we, are we not super motivated by the RJ Harvey Harvey show? I'm on board. I mean, it's the same as a JK
Starting point is 01:31:06 without the injuries, basically, in terms of output. And then I just want to be right on Jonathan Brooks as a guy that's held on to him for an extremely long time across the board. I would just like to be right on Jonathan Brooks. And it all, it smells really, really right at this point where you're looking at the Panthers as a team that is just so willing to give up on whatever running back is the stats. on top of their depth chart the second the second anything goes wrong um it's how rico dowdall became superman last year as is chuba got hurt and they were like you know what you know what really fixed this offense what if we gave rico dowdell 30 carries a game i think that'll do it it helped
Starting point is 01:32:01 them beat the cowboys and they made the playoffs so what the hell do i know got of my huge contract Yeah, but I, you know, I still believe in the profile of Jonathan Brooks, the pass catching. He's a really good past catching back in college. Does that carry over? I don't know. But going, you know, seventh, eighth round for a dude that I could very realistically see ending in the RB2 range, low RB2 range. And that would be pretty conservative if he actually gets the work. and I'd like to play fantasy football with little to no fear of injury a lot of the time because, you know, if you think you're, there's an actual doctor on the stream, but if you think you're a fucking sports medicine doctor out there, rando guys, you aren't.
Starting point is 01:32:51 So quit trying to call them, quit trying to say that CMC is going to get hurt every year and stuff like that. So how are our emotions and feelings about Jonathan Brooks at this? point in time. I love the guy, but it's, I, I need to, I haven't seen a guy tear up as ACL, the same ACL twice and really do anything. I mean, maybe, maybe you guys have stories of guys that have done this before, but playing running back in the NFL after that is, wow, that's a lot to ask. Now, this dude is tough. And I, you know, again, another guy, I covered in high school, solom scores six touchdowns in the game. And he was that dude at Texas who, he was had that Vince young attitude where he was like or that Nick Van actual style where he's like they got all these
Starting point is 01:33:36 dudes fuck him you know he was that kind of team leader guy and so it doesn't surprise me that he's still stuck it out um and I I don't want to doubt him but I kind of need to see it before I've drafted him in a fantasy league um but I am pulling for the guy I probably won't be drafting him unless he's really falling late but uh I mean again I'll be rooting for him he was the best running back in his class the in terms of you know production explosiveness it was a down class um i think the only knocks i can say against him are he's rising really fast and getting into a range that i'm getting a little uncomfortable um but on a lot of your you know home league draft applets you don't have to pay this price that you see there um he's 115 on ESPN who uh 108 on sleeper you know at those
Starting point is 01:34:30 prices, he's the type of profile that you should be seeking a young, explosive running back who can absolutely outperform his ADP. Another knock against him is the Panthers might suck this year. Yeah, they probably will. But I mean, they sucked last year and they won the NFC South or whatever. So as long as they're in competitive games, I think, weird. And they're just, defense should be pretty good. They got Jalen Phillips and Devin Lloyd to a team that was already like, okay, defensively. But yeah, I mean, it's just like, can Bryce Young get first downs?
Starting point is 01:35:14 I think it's just the fundamental. Can he get the ball to Tet? Yeah, I don't know. Maybe they don't have to. But he's another guy. What's his ass? Canales. that I think he does design some pretty nasty run concepts.
Starting point is 01:35:35 Like they get yardage in chunks out of these, what I would have considered, very average running backs throughout his coaching history. And he's not there yet with like the passing scheme and connecting it all together and things like that. But I mean, he's right on par, I think, in the run game with the other dudes we were talking about in terms of like Ben Johnson. and in lafleur and and leum cohen i think he can scheme the living shit out of a run game um week to week uh jordan mason is a guy that i can't get away from um i love aaron jones uh he was he's been a pick for me for a decade now um but he's you know closer to my age than i'd like to admit at this point and i think the viking is going to be a much improve office
Starting point is 01:36:29 offense overall with Kyler. I think Justin Jefferson is going to turn back into probably 90% of Justin Jefferson. Their offensive line was so banged up. People don't account enough for whenever a team like this, who they somehow remained like competitive enough because their defense was so good and Brian Flores can do so many tricks. We don't account enough for whenever. an offense just absolutely flat lines in the most miserable way because either you know you pick
Starting point is 01:37:09 the wrong quarterback um your offensive line is entirely on the sideline um you can't get the ball to justin jefferson like whatever the reasons are like the shit that we are planning on like happening to the dolphins this year is like was the reality for the vikings last year and so it can't be that bad it just just can't be that bad offensively for the Vikings this year. And if they're going to be average to, you know, middle, third offensively, I think they're going to have to use Jordan Mason. And he has been consistently really good when given work, super efficient runner. And, you know, will he ever catch passes?
Starting point is 01:37:54 I have no idea. I can't answer that for you. But at 106 and later, I think it's a good bet. I was going over with the coordinator changes and then factoring in offensive lines and scheduling and kind of put those in a blender. And I spit out like, you know, the top from 1 to 32, the best situations and fantasy football. And number one was Philly. Number two is indie. Number three was Minnesota.
Starting point is 01:38:18 I don't, I don't think Jordan Mason is something like generate. He's not anything close to a generational talent. But he's got a little more pop than you think he does for a guy his size. And he's going to get all the goal on shit. And like you said, Aaron Jones is old. Yeah, and I look, I'm going to believe in that offense. You know, we've seen them over the last several years that they're going to be able to scheme up some shit. And I don't, I think I had them like nine ahead of ADP and I probably should have put him in there as well.
Starting point is 01:38:46 I mean, I like that call. I just didn't want to saturate it with the, you know, 15 guys like you did. That's what I did last year. But yeah, you might as well be on my list. And I, you know, that 106, man, that's late. for a guy who's going to be probably your every week starter from Minnesota. So he's going 106. I'm looking at Tony Pollard going 80.
Starting point is 01:39:15 I'm looking at the Steelers guys going 72 and 80. And I just, I know Jordan Mason left some bad taste in some miles last year for people that were trying to stake him and trying to make force him into an RV2 role. and he didn't really deliver. And I don't know if that was injury or just, you know, they're missing four-fist their offensive line, and it was just a horror show. But, I mean, I'll take Jalen Warren over him. I'm not taking Rico out over him.
Starting point is 01:39:46 I'm not taking Tony Pollard over him. I'm just not doing that. And that means I'll just sit out those rounds and wait until I have to take Jordan Mason. He's going to get the base work. He's going to get the goal line work. He's competing against an older, largely past catching back at this point.
Starting point is 01:40:03 I think he's like if he's your RV four or five, like you can cover buy weeks, probably better in best ball just because his projectable floor is going to be really high. I don't think Mason's ever given you, you know, spike weeks that when you're weak, but, you know,
Starting point is 01:40:18 sometimes in the right room and the right build, all you need is eight to 12 projectable points. The next two guys I don't have to talk about super extensively. It's Keaton Mitchell, I think Mike McDaniel's just going to find a toy. Like, he knows what to do with the smaller back. And Keaton Mitchell is one of the most explosive that is out there. And I think they're going to find a little package to use Keaton Mitchell in,
Starting point is 01:40:44 whether it's in the past game or spread situations. So excited about him, at least finding something to be excited about out of the Chargers backfield since they're telling us that Omerian Hampton's not going to be, you know, the guy that maybe necessarily want him to be in terms of usage. And then Jonah Coleman is the, you know, the, the, the yen to the R.J. Harvey Yang. If we're trying to secure backfields. And I'd love to do some kind of study on if I just went Hero RV early, which is, you know, one running back in the first two rounds. And then just took these backfields that are outside of top 50, 80,
Starting point is 01:41:28 of Denver, Jacksonville, Minnesota, I'm sure if we're getting one or two, and just rolled with that, like how that would play out compared to the rest of, you know, the teams that got built that way. Let's go down here and reveal Fitz's guys. I'll let you drive and talk about who you ever, whoever you want to talk about first. Chase Brown, we touched on the opening thing we did. he would have been number five running back points per game in standard leagues barely behind gibb like a smidgen behind gibbs and bijon with burrow as qb obviously got hurt and that didn't happen but he also ranked fifth in percentage of pass routes run second most targets inside the 10 and the NFL at six among all running backs uh we mentioned earlier the best o line that this group of this offense basically has ever played behind um I can't really poke many holes.
Starting point is 01:42:29 I mean, I think when he first came in, we weren't sure if he was as talented. I mean, you know, he's sitting there among guys like Christian McCaffrey and Sequin Barclay, but he's also pretty young. And I think he is more talented that people wanted to admit. And when you watch him, you see it. And that offense is going to fucking, I mean, we know what their offense is going to be like. And if he's catching the passes and he's getting as much third down work as our boy Samadjay P. Ryan is getting, there's no question who the RB1 is in that backfield. I absolutely love him, and I have him
Starting point is 01:43:01 fourth amongst running backs. And he is really who I'm basing all my fantasy shit around this year in my auction is, because I know I'm going to be able to get them for a cheaper price than I would for guys that are going in that range. So I don't know what you guys think about Chase. I know Chuck, you mentioned them earlier, but I just have a hard on form this year.
Starting point is 01:43:28 Yeah, I think P. Ryan's going to be a thorn in his side for a majority of the year, but you saw it last year after Burrow came back. The backfield competition is not intimidating. The, you know, outside of Chase and Higgins, like, there's not really a lot of other weapons in that offense. And so he's going to project for a ton of work in a great situation. He can play all three downs. I've fully warmed to him. I'm in.
Starting point is 01:43:57 Yeah, I'm not too stubborn to update my takes on a player once they've answered all the questions I had. And I, you know, I wasn't a super big fan of Chase Brown, you know, first two or three years, however long he's been in the league because he's just, he's super small, didn't really show me anything production-wise in college that made me go like, this is the guy, not an athletic trait, thing there that like stands out turns out he's just like really fucking good at football um and versatile and has started catching passes um really consistently and being used in almost like a christian mcalfrey kind of way um whenever they need explosive plays whenever they need first downs and um even you know with joe burrow there with joe barrow out some years uh he's he's
Starting point is 01:44:48 he's delivered. He is rising to, I think, the top of where he can deliver. Like, I like that you're stake in him, and I like that he's being drafted in a proper spot now because he has been kind of a cheat code in the third, fourth round for a little bit. But I think he is bumping his head against the point where it's he can deliver, like, plus value on his draft position. And that's fine.
Starting point is 01:45:18 Like, you got to take the dudes, the first round, you know, the deviations in the first 12 to 24 players aren't very much, you know, because it is the top 20, top 24 players. But their offensive lines better. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, like, I think he could waltz into top six running back production. And I've completely flipped my opinion. of Chase Brown because I just I didn't like the profile I really wasn't in on what he was serving up and what he was bringing at the table and then he's just answered every question man he's just uncomfortable to see amongst those giants that we've seen in fantasy football which I think is part of it we're just not ready to just admit it and and then you have a giant that he's right
Starting point is 01:46:08 next to you for me is say Juan I don't have to go too far into it we talked a lot about him already probably more than anybody yet but you know he had 60 fewer touches from 2020 24 to 25 and we all know that they can their offensive coordinator last year. Just don't see enough in that receiving core that is going to, you know, take away from his production. And the only reason I don't have him probably one or two is like we mentioned, you're still going to see, you're going to give up some of those tush pushes.
Starting point is 01:46:40 So I think we all said we liked him, right? Yeah, I think we're all on board with Sequin. on. Chase Brown almost reminded me of just to circle back on that and put a stamp on that. It's almost like when Echler came on. Oh yeah, perfect. Perfect calm. It's like you didn't really believe in him for like a year or two. And now that we're at the end of his career, we're like, was there ever a time where he didn't believe in Austin Echler? And it's like, yeah, dude. Like, nobody fucking wanted Austin Echler. Like we were all scared of him for so long. Yeah, no, totally agree with you there. And then, and then,
Starting point is 01:47:15 a small running back to a giant running back it's the guy I have next which it's it will be uncomfortable for anybody to call his name out is Cam Scada move but I just can't I mean this is one of these dudes if you go heavy on running back early you got to have a guy before you take him
Starting point is 01:47:34 you can't have this guy as your RB1 I would never do that it's kind of psycho to do that but my god he's a league winner just waiting there if he can if he can overcome this injury shit and he is one of those he's he is a psycho as we saw the do the backflip believe it or not it actually kind of like made me think about like if that guy's stupid enough to do something like that he's stupid enough to play through all this pain
Starting point is 01:47:56 with this shit he's got going on he had like three different injuries and one hit that he took if he is 90% 80% of what he was last year he is well worth the price of admission here um i mean we all saw what he did against texas when he was like puking on the sidelines we saw what he was capable of and he just basically did the same thing when he rolled into his um rookie season and he just i was pissed last year that i didn't i wasn't all over him because i wanted to take him and it just didn't work out and i the whole time i just regretted it but i'm like i'm looking on there i'm like this dude's gonna be a top three running back as i'm watching him next year he'll be a top three
Starting point is 01:48:34 running back and i believe he at least be a top five this year had he not jacked up his legs so i want to be i want to have a piece of it but it's more of one of those huge up side swings. I don't know what he's going in FFPC, but I think I would imagine there's some of these, some of these sharps are seeing the potential for a league winner here. Yeah, I like that he's scaring people off. Like, I would love it if he has like a little bit of a mitre slide.
Starting point is 01:49:04 Because, I mean, I don't know. We get into this, this media cycle of like, he's an idiot. He's doing backflips. He's doing a bunch of dumb shit. He's on podcast. His coach is telling him like to chill out. I'm like,
Starting point is 01:49:19 man, if y'all could see half the shit these guys do, like you'd think they're all the stupidest people on planet Earth. So I don't know. I'm sorry his is more in the public or whatever. He's the dumbest of the dummies. That's fine. But yeah, I mean, I don't, I'm trying to get like an actionable read on him.
Starting point is 01:49:43 because I think he's priced appropriately right now. And I need to decide if I think he can blow that away because he did in the games that he started and got most of the usage last year. I mean, he was like the hottest commodity once he started starting. I was getting crazy trade offers. And then, or do I need to think?
Starting point is 01:50:12 And I guess it's, you know, dynasty brain versus redraft brain of redraft who gives a shit like whatever not worried about the guy living past february not my problem um but i am always kind of like have a dynasty slant um going on to my head of is this guy a good investment for the long term um but you know the naji harris thing doesn't scare me like that's fine dude if they end up given a Yeah, if they end up giving too many carries of Najee Harris, like, sorry dudes, the other dumbest people alive. Seen that movie.
Starting point is 01:50:48 But I don't know. I'm trying to find out like an actionable angle on Skataboo. And my actual angle right now is hoping that he does last a little bit longer to where I can go, oh, okay. It's low enough for the risk that if he does, you know, has a few good games and he something rips up you can still survive it. What do you think, Chuck? Yeah, I loved playing Cam last year and he was so much fun, easy guy to root for.
Starting point is 01:51:19 The only thing that scares me is the injury and the Giants also have some disaster potential. But I mean, other than his ADP, which is now like fourth-ish round, I can't poke too many holes in it. I really want to talk about the next guy on your list. Yeah, I was going to say, as I was putting him down and since, him to you i was like i wonder if they're i know you guys are really keen on you know getting getting ahead of it everybody on the rookies and i'm like well the guy that played most of the snaps or a good majority of especially the entire amount of snaps left on the roster is not currently practicing right now and he may not be for into the season for a few weeks and now
Starting point is 01:52:06 he got this fucking stud from notre dame he just kind of he's kind of a sleeper because the guy that the RB1 got drafted at what was a third overall loves third yeah so uh i watched price's tape man and i'm just like holy shit this guy just fucking pops into that secondary every single time um they're gonna have no choice but to use them and use them a lot and he's he's gonna be thrust into that it's a it's not clint kuby at calling obviously the offense because he's gone now, but they're still going to be running the same offensive set. Brian Fleury runs the same thing. He's a Shanahan guy.
Starting point is 01:52:49 It should be seamless, but, you know, you just never know with these kind of repeat coordinators who've been learning from the other guys. But I just, I got to hope that the offensive line, they've had a bit of an upgrade. I somehow won a Super Bowl with what was ranked with a bottom five offensive line last year. Not much else has changed around.
Starting point is 01:53:10 him and he is going i think i have him i have him 19 is my running back i'm not sure what he is on your list there mike he looks like he's living in the where'd he go i see 27 on fantasy pros jadarium price yeah 25 26 27 range uh my adp rb 26 CTR has him at 25 so there a little bit ahead of market, but Evan Silva is also a Notre Dame guy. Well, I would encourage anyway, it doesn't know anything about Judarian tries to go watch his Notre Dame tape
Starting point is 01:53:51 because I think it'll become a believer. And you already know enough about most people know enough about Seattle and what they want to do. I love them. Obviously, their offense is going to move the football. I don't see really many holes, especially considering what's behind him. And George Halani is talking about giving him a bunch of carries.
Starting point is 01:54:08 That's just not a real thing to me. So I'm shocked that he hasn't caught on more than he is. Yeah, the biggest knock against him is he's kind of set up for like the opposite of what you expect a rookie running back to do, which is increased production as the season goes on. And a lot of that fear is built around Charbonnet coming back and the fear that they're just going to jam Charbonnet in like they did last year to the detriment of Kenneth Walker. So I think he's too cheap. I love him in, you know, zero RB or anchor RB builds. I think he's an ideal RB3. Yeah, I think they're going to find out pretty quickly.
Starting point is 01:54:50 And I know Price, I think, is dealing with an injury right now. But Emmanuel Wilson's there, who's a dude that did deliver for the Packers whenever he was called upon. He was like, throw your entire fab budget kind of guy multiple times and multiple years for Packers. So I think they're I think Emmanuel Wilson might be the actual backup, uh, first half of the year until Charbonnet comes back. But yeah, I watch price and I see what you're talking about. Um, I see he's like past the linebacker before like anybody's reacted. And it's like, what the fuck just happened? Yeah. And I'm trying to find a runner that I can really compare them to, um, that has,
Starting point is 01:55:37 that type of style that can like get out there but uh i think the trick for him is the things that worry me i'm fine it i'm fine at cost on price i don't know if i'm ever going to like be bumping him up or staking him half round earlier being like that's my rb2 guy no matter what like got to pull him up a little bit up the board um he does not catch passes that's not in his profile maybe he learns to maybe he can i'm not saying you know can't change his spots but uh that's not his profile right now and i don't know if they're going to keep working on him with that or if that's going to be somebody else's role um i hope he's their goal line guy i don't know for sure um and then the charbonnet thing is is pretty worrying and then the other stuff that i worry about
Starting point is 01:56:31 is like okay yeah he looked great at notre dame but you know he's in he's the he's the second there he punch after jermai loves been in there and driving people crazy for a little while so um is is he jumping in there when teams are already on their heels um and i don't know no matter what he's he looks good no matter what and i think his production is you can't deny that as a just a pure runner but for him to really really like pop above where he's going i think he has to have some kind of involvement in the passing game and also not get nerfed by Zach Charbonnet and you know I'm trying to think of what the probability of both those things the thing was Charbonnet is that Charbonnet was was injury was really late right
Starting point is 01:57:18 it was yeah yeah I mean it was entering the playoffs I think almost yeah like yeah I mean it wasn't good but I mean do you all feel like every single injury is healing quicker than it's supposed to right now Like everybody is like a month That's head of schedule. And then people are getting hurt again. The peptides, bro. Pepitided up. Monongai,
Starting point is 01:57:48 it's, you know, it's just like he's not going very high. What do you have him, Manangai? I know he's going significantly lower than Swift. Kyle Manungai, the fun guy.
Starting point is 01:58:00 102 ADP right now. Yeah, that's an easy click for me. And especially if I'm already have Swift. that's an auto call. He's the David Montgomery, you know, just back to the same old shit,
Starting point is 01:58:13 rinse repeat with different names with Ben Johnson. He, yeah, he was great. He didn't get, you know, it's the 60-40 thing kind of for the Bears last year. And in the goal line,
Starting point is 01:58:24 he was fantastic. I have, he's an automatic for me. And then as is the next guy, they're sort of, it's like if I don't get one, I want the other between Manangai and Chris Rodriguez,
Starting point is 01:58:35 Jr., It's either the Bears or the Jaguar's backfield. That's strictly which one I don't get, the other one I'm calling. And then I think Mike Washington's pretty obvious why you want them. Genties got a high ankle sprain and they're running in Clint Kubiak system. And I already wanted to thrust Genti easily in the top five because, you know, I've made a lot money in that Shanahan Kubiak running scheme over the years, dating way back to
Starting point is 01:59:07 you know like the late 90s it's the same system and if you get a guy you can replace them you get guys like Mike Anderson who were winning rushing or winning new fantasy titles it's kind of the same guy he's a lottery ticket and I can't imagine he's going eighth round
Starting point is 01:59:23 and he got vaulted up there when people thought Gentie was dead but I'm sure it's probably more like the 12th round now yeah let me pull him up and see where he is where did he end up landing Yeah, he's 154 overall. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:59:39 If you're not following along, he's the Raiders' backup, running back. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's really fun player and he's made some really crazy plays thus far. Like his preseason tape has been pretty ridiculous overall. Yeah, I mean, once you introduce the doubt of a high ankle sprained for Gentie, which we're all like feeling great about because we thought it was, you know, prayer circle time and you know lower them into the casket as a as the doves fly out um like moments
Starting point is 02:00:15 and we're just happy with the high ankle sprain and i'm like i don't know that kind of let's look back on the research of those no it's just got linger all year if that's yeah we don't we don't know that that's the case nobody seems to know but like let's let's go ahead and draft a guy at 154 just in case it is a high ankle spring because if it is that's a lottery ticket yeah it's somewhere between last rights and a really minor minor ankle injury for as she and i still haven't seen the footage of the prayer circle is that actually happened i'm still i happen yeah that happened yeah that absolutely happened multiple people reported like they immediately got into a prayer circle yeah which is just electric uh on a football field but um yeah i think mike washington's awesome
Starting point is 02:01:01 I think he's a guy you should definitely trade Jalen Waddle for in some kind of package, Chuck. Nope, nope. You don't like running backs? I don't play scared. Hey, Fitz, how worried are you about Menongai's knee? Well, I'm not optimistic about it. What are the latest reports on it? I'm seeing stuff that says week one is in doubt.
Starting point is 02:01:27 Yeah, well, that's why you want the whole, again, with the price isn't very bad. but if it's just if it's just a couple weeks you know i'm not gonna i'm fine i'll just keep dropping you know in terms of his uh ADP that could create like an affordable split where it's like five six fifth round for swift well swift is going to go up well hopefully people aren't smart enough to make that correlation and go like uh my nun guy's out plus plus swift okay they probably will be in most leagues but like home leagues i don't know if people are going to react appropriate lead a Kyle Madangai injury they'll just go like oh yeah who's his backup rochon johnson oh he's just going to get the touches now and just like move on about their day
Starting point is 02:02:11 it's just a sprain right yeah uh yeah i don't know what's gonna open the guy's knee i don't think we've seen anything definitive yet prayer circle if it's a yeah if it's a sprain it's probably you know it'll last into the year the one or two weeks which is like hey daily fantasy you giddy up. DeAndre Swift. One of my truisms is to slightly fade or doc
Starting point is 02:02:36 people that get non-trivial injuries in training camp and this year is hard because everyone's hurt. Yeah, this has been kind of shit, dude. I'm not going to lie,
Starting point is 02:02:48 this preseason for running backs has absolutely been frustrating as all the hell. McCaffrey's sitting out with like tightness. Let's see. GNT, obviously. Gentie issue.
Starting point is 02:03:01 Gentie love. Yeah. Sorry, I did something weird to my camera by doing a hand gesture. I don't know what it's doing at me. Josh Jacob actually has an injury on top of his... He has an injury, yeah.
Starting point is 02:03:15 On top of his legal issues. Yeah, Jeremiah Love, as you mentioned. Reese Hall. Mm-hmm. Reese Hall. Skataboo, just being scatiboo shit. but Quenchon Judkins coming back from a major injury. Let's see.
Starting point is 02:03:35 You mentioned Kenneth Walker and his foot. Obviously Jonathan Brooks's situation. Oh, one person, I want to get set the stage for whatever Chuck wants to throw out at RV because he didn't send me his guys because he was saving lives all day. What a jerk. The one guy I wanted to bring up that I think is like, I think I'm a pretty hardcore fade on. Maybe surprising or not surprising. I don't see it with Giovante Williams this year.
Starting point is 02:04:16 I think that's a bad bet. I think they used the living piss out of him last year. He had a Jillian rushing touchdowns. And I just don't think that's how they want to play football this year. Knowing this team and knowing more about this team than, I guess, assuming every other team probably combined, he wore the fuck down. And he sought that last month. He was part of the reason why they, like, fell out of the playoff contention because he was just ineffective as all pits. And I think he can still be very good and have.
Starting point is 02:04:56 15% usage drop off and them go, okay, we want you ready for week one of playoffs. So I think that's how they feel they're going right now. And I know the obvious next question is like, okay, for who? Who's going to take those carries from him? And I don't have the answer right now. It's not going to be Jaden Blue. It's not Jaden Blue. I can't, I mean, Malik Davis is fun.
Starting point is 02:05:26 but he's like very small. And I think they're legitimately going to sign somebody. The best. The best. The best. Back that comes loose. Let's just say he gets nicked up and he's out for five, six weeks. You think they're not going to roll with Malik?
Starting point is 02:05:43 No. They will, I think they'll sign somebody. I think Malik is emergency situation. I think he's played well enough and shown enough in preseason and just consistently being a dude to have like some, kind of role. Like maybe a league gets like one series
Starting point is 02:06:00 a game. And then if he's running hot or if they found something like you can use him again in the second half or some kind of trick play or something. Do they have running back on a practice squad? Potentially? They got Phil Maffa. He'll probably get bumped down to practice squad. But no, they have a bad
Starting point is 02:06:18 running back room. They have a really bad running back room. Sounds familiar with them. They just don't value that position. Well, except if they paid the shit out. Didn't they pay Giovante nice little? It wasn't crazy money. Yeah, but he was a priority in the off season. And they didn't bring in anybody else.
Starting point is 02:06:37 Yeah, but it's also a multi-year thing. So it makes me even think like they want to save them even more. Like, they need Javante Williams healthy for week one of playoffs. Well, that's where at least down the stretch. It would be very Jerry liked to look, oh, look what the Seahawks did. Mm-hmm. They didn't play their best player. running back. They saved him. They won the damn
Starting point is 02:06:57 Super Bowl. I could just see that in his head, you know, like, okay. And it makes sense what you're saying. That's what I'm getting at. That maybe they will rest him a little bit and not run the shit out of them. They're going to throw the fucking piss out of the ball this year.
Starting point is 02:07:13 We all know that. He's still going to get the heavy dose of carries inside the five, though. That's the one thing that I feel like you can almost bank on with Javonte, that his floor is, kind of safe but i'm absolutely fine what jivante it cost this year yeah i am too um but i'll i'll hear you out mike because i you know i'm not i'm not like leaping him over
Starting point is 02:07:37 people either i'm just kind of he's kind of just sitting there right above derrick henry for me which maybe not he's let's see where he is in here he is um 30th overall ADB. Would you take Javante or Kairn? I'm not taking a lot of their running backs in that range, to be honest. For those that are listening to this that actually want to take
Starting point is 02:08:04 one of those, who would you take? Yeah. You're like pass? Yeah, I mean, I think the right answer is Breece Hall. Or, yeah, Brise Hall or Etienne, like start entering my my decision matrix at that point i'm getting a tight end and probably at that point yeah yeah
Starting point is 02:08:30 that's when the wall of white receivers kind of start for me too um so i just i i'm not like hard fading the guy like this is dumb you'll be an idiots like where are we doing this but it's like i just will have zero you like the old line though i like the old line cowboys they're fine i mean it's the same five yeah, they're fine. I think it's good enough. I just think they saw what happened last year whenever they used him that much. Like, he just flatlined, dude.
Starting point is 02:08:59 He was bad. And maybe none of it matters because they're going to be leading in enough games this year where they got to, you know, run the ball late. But he was just running a touchdown heater
Starting point is 02:09:13 like you don't usually see last year getting like two a game. for a large chunk of that time. And then he broke down pretty significantly. And I think they are actively looking for an answer for someone else to take these carries off him. And you keep looking long enough and you make it a priority. Like you're going to find one.
Starting point is 02:09:38 You're going to find Sean Tucker. You're going to find, you know, whoever. Like, let me look down this list, like down the bottom, who could get released? No, it doesn't go that far. But, you know, they could legitimately sign like a nausey kind of character. And you're like, oh, okay, what's happening now? If it's late enough than the season, James Connor. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:10:03 I think Trey Benson's an interesting name. I don't know that it's in the realm of possibility, but I think he is better than he has shown. He cleared waivers entirely. Nobody claimed him. His injury might be pretty bad, huh? Yeah, I don't know what the situation is there. Like, I don't know if you can just trade up release hurt dudes.
Starting point is 02:10:27 I have no idea. But no one claimed him at cost. You know what I mean? On his current contract. So I think you have to trade form now where they have to outright him. Nick Chubbs. Yeah. Yeah, Nick Chubbs retired.
Starting point is 02:10:43 But yeah. Anyway, sorry to lead all that into Chuck. I wanted to hear running back, running back takes, if you have any. Yeah, my list only has one name this year and it's, it's Ken Walker. I did send this to you, but we were in the car together. So I got that. Yes, I did see this. Can we already talked about him enough.
Starting point is 02:11:09 I don't have anything more to say about him. Where do you have them? I don't do ranks, but I think, mid-second round, he's a priority once Sequin goes off and assuming Chase Brown is no longer there. So I guess that would be like RB8, RB9. James Cook or Kenneth Walker? Oh, that's close. I mean, I think James Cook is going to project for more, but my heart wants to take Ken Walker.
Starting point is 02:11:46 Nice. I think I'm James Cook. I'm barely The smart pick is James Cook But he's the safest Will never be an RV one overall Player ever in fantasy football this year is James Cook The
Starting point is 02:12:03 So I mentioned at TN earlier As a dude that's kind of growing on me And the running back position can give you feelings That no other position can Because you're like, I don't like this guy And then you're like But he's got the opportunity Andy's plugging in touchdowns.
Starting point is 02:12:21 I had this conversation in my head today like three, four hours ago. Same exactly. Yeah, so who's your, each of you give me a guy that is like you're reluctantly, I fucking guess. I guess I'll take this guy
Starting point is 02:12:36 because I don't want to be an idiot. Go ahead, Chuck, but it's probably, it's probably ETN. I don't know. I mean, it's either E.T.N. or DeAndre Swift for me. I've been off DeAndre Swift
Starting point is 02:12:49 since, his rookie, no, since his second year, I loved him as a rookie. But like the Bears, last year were top 10 in the league and backfield points. And I resisted saying that I am not a Monong guy guy, guy guy, nice. And so I think Jaundre Swift is a guy that I'm just like, oh, this guy's too cheap for what I expect that team to do. Both those guys, I would say have popped in my head. The other one
Starting point is 02:13:22 who you barely touched on is Breece Hall. What do you guys think of Breece Hall? I can't wrap my head around. I don't really want to take anybody in that offense, but who else is going to take out of care of the ball? He's tested to use a good amount of 12 personnel this season. Situation is neutral.
Starting point is 02:13:39 Frank Reich is the O.C. I don't know if I trust him. I don't trust much of anything about that team, but they will have, you know, they're going to be in tight sets a lot, I think. I've been a big, brief guy for a long time. I love him. He's just, as you say, not sexy, but I think his talent puts a floor on where he should
Starting point is 02:14:03 be drafted, and I think the mid-third is kind of his floor, and that's where he's going. He's always delivered, man, at least on some level of what you're looking for in the range goes and it's not as pricey as he's never gotten as pricey as I thought he might get and I see where he's at right now he is at 32 overall 33 overall like I'll yeah Breece is a dude that I have more confidence in than I guess he's earned um And so I always end up with like a decent share of breezehole every year. And until he doesn't perform or they start splitting the backfield even more, like I'm just going to keep doing it because they're going to learn at some point that
Starting point is 02:15:02 if we just run the ball through him, we're going to have plus offensive outcomes consistently. And, you know, whether or not they can, I think Gino is actually like a pretty good thing. the Jets overall. I don't know if everybody can get fed that is there now. It went from like, just Garrett Wilson. They're like,
Starting point is 02:15:25 here's A.D. Mitchell. Here's Omar Cooper. Here's Kenyon Sadiq. Yeah. And also the Breeshal. I like the Sadiq. I like, I mean, in theory,
Starting point is 02:15:33 I like what they're trying to do, I guess with what they have is drafting another tight end and they're going to run those tight sets, like I said. So that spells Brees Hall in the game quite a bit. it again,
Starting point is 02:15:46 that we haven't seen any other running back really take much from them other than save for a couple games. So that's a guy I don't want to call on draft day, but I get the appeal. It's just like not sexy enough to me. But if he's falling, yeah.
Starting point is 02:16:03 But that's just like one of those, really? I mean, yeah, I guess so. He's one of those things for Brise Hall supporters that like, it all makes sense whenever he starts rolling. because he'll start cranking up his usage and then he'll have like a
Starting point is 02:16:18 six passing targets game and then the next game he has like eight and then you're like he's just easy he's like an easy read of like when it's ramping up and when it's ramping down and he has these like fits throughout season no pun intended just like these spurts
Starting point is 02:16:38 and fits throughout seasons where it's like oh my god preysall is the best running back in football again for like two or three weeks weeks and it's like oh yeah they're the jets and they'll like crash and burn and the offense just won't work at all um but yeah i don't know he's he's a frustrating one um but also has done enough to keep dreaming on so he's one he's one of my he's one of my lost boys that i i always have time for it's just above a fantasy zombie yeah yeah exactly living somewhere above there All right, any final thoughts on the running back position that we got to, we must, we must give the people.
Starting point is 02:17:22 Do we want to touch on any fades before we get out of here? I'm always down for some fades. Oh, I did want to bring up one guy, a late, a late guy since we were kind of, we were kind of going some of our deep sleepers. I wanted to mention Emmett Johnson, Kansas City, the backup. But we think, I think he's going to be the backup in Kansas City. considering Kenneth Walker's you know often hurt and how much they clearly want to
Starting point is 02:17:51 run the ball more than they have in a while this guy looks like he's pretty capable of doing it I love this college tape man and he got all the shit in Nebraska I like I really enjoyed watching him and I would I would definitely throw a dart at him late yeah if we're going
Starting point is 02:18:11 super late gross territory down here. Like DeMont Claiborne probably fits into that category. Vikings' third string running back. He, I think he's not that different than I'ma Johnson, honestly. Ketron Allen's getting some love. I don't know if it's a good thing that you get 20 plus carries in the preseason and get like 70-something yards in a game, but it happened.
Starting point is 02:18:40 money yeah yeah uh yeah we can we can talk about some phase i think we talk about CMC pretty thoroughly uh he's might be my biggest early fade um did you have anybody in mind chuck that you wanted to take to fade fade fade bill it's not necessarily like a true fade it's just i don't know what to do with them i just don't know what to do with bucky irving this year And it's not a talent-based take. It's more like, you know, they brought in Kenny Gainwell and like, what's that going to do? I mean, any Titan I'm out on.
Starting point is 02:19:23 I don't know. I just, it's a weird year, like I was saying. There's so many yeah-butts on all these guys that I kind of feel like I almost have like a half fade on so many players. And it's just, it's a real cosmic gumbo. and I'm trying to work through it. Christopher Harris had Bucky as one of it as his, I think it was number one flag player. Number one flag player.
Starting point is 02:19:48 He was really convinced about his, and it made me think about it a lot. He was like, he was just injured the entire season. He doesn't really get much of Gainwell. I know Gainwell's metrics are great. And then there's always Sean Tucker. But, I mean, they got a really good offensive line.
Starting point is 02:20:07 I got a little bit of a rough schedule. But 22 sounds pretty reasonable for Bucky Irving. That's where I have them. And part of you wants to, I mean, I think when I probably went into this, I was assuming I would have them much higher. But then I started checking up all these names. I'm like, oh, well, what about this guy? What about Tootin?
Starting point is 02:20:26 And what about Brees Hall? And what about Jeremiah Love? Like, I just have them all a little bit ahead of Bucky Irving. And I all of a sudden look up. I'm like, 22? do that sounds really low for him I don't know I mean that's that's probably a little out of the range for most people
Starting point is 02:20:42 but I don't know how I feel about him I don't see him calling him off on draft day but then I'm like is that a huge mistake? I don't think so I don't think you're going to like bang your head against the wall if you didn't have Bucky Irving this year but there are it he does get hurt because there are guys right behind him that I am like not significantly but like
Starting point is 02:21:07 like more excited about i mean tootin and david montgomery go right behind him like enough to be like a half round or a round and so depending on what league you're in i know bucky for a while there people were getting him in like fifth very early six and if you can get that i'm like that's that's dynamic to me i think that's that's awesome um but i think i'm in on bucky um I'm just like pushed them up the board, but I'm bullish on that offensive line being significantly better. They were doing silly shit last year to patch the holes. And Tristan Worst is like a legit game changing left tackle. He's back.
Starting point is 02:21:59 Graham Barton's awesome with their center. And they got a couple of the dudes that are that are really, really solid. And then, I mean, y'all probably know it was good as anybody that Baker Mayfield completely wrecked his shit, like whatever week it was, like week six, seven, eight or something. And that offense, that whole team just died. The Egbukha fun ended. And Egboka got hurt. And he's hurt again. Mike Evans got hurt.
Starting point is 02:22:28 And it was just kind of, you know, haunted house for the bucks last year. And that's another thing about the bucks that we haven't talked about at all, is that all the receivers are hurt right now. Like, terrified, like, every single, every one of the, I think actually Godwin is their healthiest receiver right now. Jaylon McHillian is a guy I'll probably want to talk about, you know, when we do this thing tomorrow on the receivers, just because I think he could, you know, take some of the slack that's being left behind by Abuca. Because I think Abuka is just going to be dealing with a toe all year. but that's a big that's a big dent in their offense which as a whole makes me sort of want to fade everybody on the offense
Starting point is 02:23:10 besides just you know other people that could step in the passing game but then that includes Bucky Irving as just the guy that like are they going to be as good as they could be without these past catchers being 100% yeah and I haven't looked super into the books I don't expect anything of them it's like that entire NFC South where I'm like I don't need to know that fucking Panthers defense and
Starting point is 02:23:32 coordinator or the books like play caller or whatever i know the last time they were really homing and delivering leam cohen was in charge but it really seemed like baker figured something out um and of course mike evans was there um and you know all this stuff but it was there was a lot of like tyler johnson and like oh yeah who's that who's the other little tiny the Jamlin. McMillan, but then the Oregon kid. Tess White, Tess Johnson, Tess Johnson. Tess Johnson as well.
Starting point is 02:24:12 They were just doing it with like the most random white receivers and just figuring out shit. And Bucky was ripping his rookie season. And you know, I don't ever expect him to get back to that. Liam Cohen doesn't work here anymore. But I think Baker figured it out how to be like a very high caliber quarterback in this league. And if he can do that with, you know, a bunch of gibronies, then, you know, 75% of egg buca. And the rest of that crew might be good enough to support a Bucky offense. Yeah, Zach Robinson.
Starting point is 02:24:52 You were talking about the O.C. Yeah, that's right. It's a shit ton of motion, which is it's played out historically in the NFL. that's a lot of motion usually it increases your potential to put up more points so yeah maybe maybe i'm not maybe some of us are sleeping a little bit too much on the bucks because even even with their injuries like that offensive line is as you know as good as there is in the NFL maybe um so yeah maybe bucky is the answer if he's healthy and you know just having this conversation as we do every year Makes me recalibrate my brain about some of these guys.
Starting point is 02:25:32 I might bump them up a spot or two. Yeah, and you're always considering at cost, and he's like exactly the same spot as Quinn Sean Judkins. Bucky every time. He's going to touch ahead of DeAndre Swift and at least an ETR, and that's a tough one for me. Montgomery, I'm super excited about as we talked about. Tutin I'm super excited about.
Starting point is 02:25:56 And so it kind of, depends what kind of team you're building. Like I could see different scenarios in which Bucky makes more sense than Tooten for sure. And maybe even Swift in some scenarios. But yeah, I think I'll have a little bit above whatever you're going to call it, normal, normal share of Bucky at cost this year.
Starting point is 02:26:31 Any other bades we wanted to. to talk about. I'm good. So draft Chase Brown, Sequin Barkley, and Kenneth Walker, is that we're telling people in the early rounds? I think so. I think that's a safe,
Starting point is 02:26:46 safe assumption. Lock up your Jags. Yeah, anybody that's already injured, they're already dealing with serious injury, like slide them down a touch. Like there's always a time to take people, but don't settle yourself with that.
Starting point is 02:27:03 I'm trying to see if there's any of their names in here that gross me out. Romandre. Grosses you out. Well, this is gross me out, but the more I've thought about it, like I've, you know, a couple weeks ago, everybody's talking about take Ramondre. He's just going to get the third down. And I just can't avoid, like, thinking about Trayvion when Armandre was out last year.
Starting point is 02:27:28 And he's just so much upside with that guy, dude. Like, if Trayon's out and Ramandre is playing, is he going to go nuclear possible if remandre's out and travion is in there look out and that's kind of where I laid when I was doing my rankings I'm like
Starting point is 02:27:47 I'm putting Travion Henderson ahead of him because we saw what he could do in a pinch and he's just going to get better past protection hopefully that's a dude that's that's a nice little bazook you have if if you got a
Starting point is 02:28:03 RB4 and he's Travion Henderson you can fire off in week seven or whatever it is you get that's easily winning potential yeah that's that's one where um i think everyone's focusing on shit that doesn't really matter in that backfield which is that trivan henderson got a concussion going into the playoffs and then they used remandre like extensively on their super bowl run almost exclusively at running back on their super bowl run um And so everyone's going, ah, yeah, they don't like Trevion Henderson. Not a good player.
Starting point is 02:28:44 Vrable doesn't believe in them. And I just, I have this feeling that, like, remandre might be fine first half of the year. Might be totally cool. Not a problem. Deliver for where his ADP is, but I think it's around 70 right now. But I could definitely see second half of the year.
Starting point is 02:29:04 Trivion Henderson is getting 15 carries. and eight passes and we're just like that was pretty fucking stupid guys like why are we worried about remandery stevenson um and i think they're more effective throwing the ball this year than they were last year as well um with a j brown um tougher cover schedule sure note that that was that the dog shit schedule they played last year but yeah a j brown might be the great equalizer i think they can both deliver only one of them can deliver to me like big second half and that that's that's henderson yeah i agree i just don't click remandre that much it's just not a thing i'm interested in um yeah i think that's all the dudes consider yourself prepared for your running back position
Starting point is 02:30:01 you're welcome all right we write again night two the action is the juice you're 11. Who else has been doing this for 11 years making zero profit? Nobody, I don't think. I don't think there's anybody out there. I'm Mike. That is Fitz and that is Chuck right over there. I hope you checked out the running backs preview that we brought to you on the previous
Starting point is 02:30:36 episode as well as the overall season preview and structural ideas of how to build teams this year. Before we jump into the wide receivers, which is our tasks tonight, I'll put it on the board here. There you go. 26 wide receiver preview in case you didn't read any of the descriptions of what you just threw into your earphones before you listen to it. We don't think we said the name Josh Jacobs last night, which is probably good. And we don't need to break down a legal analysis of what what this is going to mean for Josh Jacobs and all that kind of. shit because nobody knows. But obviously they said they were bracing for a Josh Jacob's suspension a couple days ago and everyone was like, man, what do you mean? And then today it's two misdemeanors
Starting point is 02:31:21 and apparently there's a video of him throwing his old lady into the garage and we'll see how everything lands. But, you know, I don't know how this worked with the NFL anymore. I worked for the Cowboys whenever this happened to Zeke and it was every other Thursday, he would have to go to a courtroom in Sherman, Texas and figure out if he was being suspended, weekend or not. And this shit just changes like case by case. It's absolute nonsense. So I don't want to say like Josh Jacobs is getting nothing or Josh Jacobs is getting four games or Josh Jacobs is getting eight games. I have no idea, man. And nobody does. If I had to put my money on it, I'd say like, here's four games, Josh Jacobs. See you in five in week five. But we think we were
Starting point is 02:32:01 walking out last night, Chuck. And we were like, man, we should have talked about Marshawn Lloyd for a second. So I wanted to do two minutes on Packers backfield off the top of this. just so people don't run into the weekend going like, hey, they said nothing bad about Josh Jacobs. Everything seems to be wheels up. But the situation has shifted in the last 24 hours. So I feel like I will at least a minute of it. So Marshawn Lloyd, I think, was already a pretty fun click
Starting point is 02:32:26 for us really late in drafts. But how are we gonna attack the Packers backfield as early as tomorrow night in our main event draft? So I was hesitant to bring up the Josh Jacob situation. sitting amongst two disciples of Josh Jacobs. But you don't have to have a lot agree to know that there's at least some probability that he's missing some or part of the season. And that was before the injury.
Starting point is 02:32:55 So who's his direct backup? Oh, you know, let's grab him late. He's going higher in sharp leagues. But in your home league, I mean, as of yesterday, if you drafted, you could have gotten him in the 12th plus. Yeah. Super late pick for Marshawn Loy, that I'm sure. by the next draft cycle,
Starting point is 02:33:15 which maybe it's tonight at nine for FFPC main events, I would anticipate like round eight, nine for Marshaun and Lloyd after this news. But does this change your perception at all, Fidzzi? For Lloyd or for all of them? Yeah, for both. And we don't know what the third back is. Like Chris Brooks is still there. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:33:37 And he was, it was something. He was just kind of there. and they utilized him a lot last year. Maybe Wilson was good whenever they had to play him. Both of it were annoying. Yeah, I had Jacobs last year, and both of them were kind of annoying at times because you're just expecting Jacobs to be in there at all times.
Starting point is 02:33:54 He was owning everything. What time did this news come down? Because literally just this morning, Jeff Ratliff was telling everybody that he is pretty certain that Josh Jacobs is not going to get suspended because this legal, this isn't going to play out until well after the season. I'm like, interesting thought. And I'm like, okay, well, that would be a steal to get Jacob's, like,
Starting point is 02:34:15 running back 15 or whatever. And I had, I think it was like 2.30 or so. I think I was driving back into the office and I was like, oh, if. That hadn't heard the video part. So that's, well, that's interesting. Yeah, I think maybe Chefster was saying there's a video that exists. But again, like, we were talking on the way over here. I was like, a video can mean like he, Ray Rice, this lady and like full on
Starting point is 02:34:40 body strength of an NFL players being unleashed on a woman or like she could have been like jumping all over me he's like get off me uh but there's like apparently a video like her falling to the ground in the garage and him grabbing her phone um is what i read earlier so well the wording and then the timing of that saying there's a video that came out but the wording was like i'm like two misdemeanors like what the hell does that mean that's just telling me very little about what happened and we already kind of knew that that was going to happen anyway and the misdemeanor's not likely to to mean anything. So we don't really know anything. And now Josh Jacobs, I would imagine, it's just going to keep falling down for people that are just like the information you brought up,
Starting point is 02:35:18 they said they're bracing poor suspension. What does that really mean? They're just planning just in case this happens. But what year are we talking about? I mean, it's just kind of empty news. And the headline was had way more substance than the actual story if you read it. So yeah, I mean, it took a year for the last Camara thing to play out. Yeah. Where it was he definitely punched the living shit out of a human being. It was a man, to be clear, but just, yeah, just obliterated dude got three games, right? It was like the following year. I don't think this is that scenario, but, you know, the NFL is very sensitive to domestic violence situations for good reason.
Starting point is 02:35:56 But I think the only way to solve this is maybe to get all of the Raiders team in a prayer circle again. I was going to say, I had their backup in Marshall and Lloyd sort of kind of in that little bubble. of like these are those two guys that you take a stand on one of them and you write it because that could be a meal ticket or lottery ticket to you know at least a playoff run like that even if it's like you said four games
Starting point is 02:36:23 well those are four games from a guy you're drafting as your RB six five whatever that's stealing really I mean why not especially if it's timed out right you know you could get it if your drafts tonight or or Friday night that news is still creeping out there but it's not it's not everywhere. Who else has been doing this 11 years? Let's remember the story of Ray Rice. It was,
Starting point is 02:36:47 you know, oh, it's not that big a deal. You know, maybe he'll miss two to four. And then the video came out and it was like right before the season started too, maybe a little earlier. And then he was out the entire year. So that is something that sounds bad. But if you're in the marketing department at Callaway Golf Clubs, maybe it's a great idea. Levyon Bell. Remember Levyon Bell? It was like we thought he might miss two games. I can't remember what the situation was and all the holdout. Yeah, it was just straight up
Starting point is 02:37:17 holdout. And was it DeAngelo Williams again? I don't know if that was the same year, but the backup ended up being the start of the entire season. And I remember sitting there in the 10th round. I'm like, yeah, I think he'll be back. I'll wait another round. And then the owner took him. I'm like, I would have won the league. It's those decisions, you know, like you're sitting there. Why not? after the eighth round, we just talk about,
Starting point is 02:37:40 and we're, I'm sure, going to talk about a ton of these guys, these receivers where you're just like, well, why not? Can he win me in the league? Well, potentially, then that's where we start looking at clicks. Yeah, I think for our purposes tonight, I brought this up because I do think it ties into the Packers' offense. If Josh Jacobs is, you know, and I'm not going to say, definitively, Jacobs is going to miss a month or whatever,
Starting point is 02:38:03 but I started thinking about the Packers' offense without Jacobs. and those past catchers become very interesting. I don't think they're going to be in the red zone as often, you know, whatever the percentage would be, 80 percent, 80th percentile of getting in the red zone without Josh Jacobs. Like you just, you miss two out, two at every 10. You don't get in the red zone if Josh Jacobs isn't there. And it's Chris Brooks or Marcheon Lloyd in the backfield because Josh Jacobs is a really good
Starting point is 02:38:31 football player. And a guy that is solidified backfields consists. I mean, since day one of the league, it's been whoever coach has him is committed to giving him all the work. But if you take him out of Michael Fleur's little playbook, what does that mean for how do they generate points? And I'm already really excited about the Packers, pass catchers. Pretty much across the board, I'll take all of them at cost right now, I think. Tucker is a bit of a, at least a yellow flag for me. in terms of I don't I'm fading him and he's still going way too high for me because I think he just said it a quote that he was quoted as saying I don't think I'll be a hundred percent or something in this until like mid season he said something like that I'm like whoa you know and he had a what a mid to late season was a yeah it was pretty bad week like maybe seven yeah something like that last year I had him yeah he he said they'll probably work
Starting point is 02:39:36 me in slowly and like i'll be on like a pitch count and then later in the week he was like i'm not doing that yeah he later came out and said the pitch count is off yeah we're actually not doing that so that that's kind of that's kind of bullish you know or maybe he maybe he was like i'm not explaining this to all every week i don't i have no interest of doing this right um so i'm just telling you all it's not happening but he he retracted basically the plan of the pitch count for took a craft but But all right, it's wide receiver. So wide receiver show, which is very easy to say. And we're 10 minutes in.
Starting point is 02:40:10 So let's get to some goddamn wide receivers. Piss boys, line up. Let's go. So at the top, we have this nice little bundle that has settled right behind our two heroes that are running back in Gibbs and Bejohn Robinson. And Jemar Chase, Pooka, Jackson Smith, and Jigba. I kind of want to talk about those dudes because people don't people usually just fly by it as if there's not a choice to be made. And I understand Chase is the one that's obvious to me.
Starting point is 02:40:48 The other two, I think we can, you can make a case for either one. Or you could throw someone else in there if you, if you're so inclined. But the puka stuff this offseason has been not as bad as it could possibly be, but it's been pretty. whatever the opposite of a drum beat is. It's a really negative vibe offseason for Puka. Obviously, extremely often injured dude because of the style he plays with, throws his body around. And then the Jackson Smith and Jigba thing, you can't look past, you know, Clint Kubiak, the Sam Darnold whisper moving on.
Starting point is 02:41:29 And I think they'll probably just try and run the same shit in Seattle. get him open and play action and, you know, still run the same tricks. I don't know if it works or not. Sometimes that's great. Sometimes you get what happened to the Lions the first half of the season last year. Whenever that was John Tom Morton took over and was like, I just used the Ben Johnson plays. And it was like, well, the league spent the entire offseason,
Starting point is 02:41:53 solving the Ben Johnson plays. But so any preference with those guys, Chase, Puka, J.S. And if you have to split a hair at, say, pick number four. in, let's say, a non-tight-in premium situation, Fitz, who you like out of that group? And do you have a preference or do you think ADP is sitting right? Yeah, pretty much right. I mean, I thought NACU at first, but just the offseason was just too gross. And again, you know, there's just some risk there.
Starting point is 02:42:24 But, God, I mean, he was the guy that won the league that I was in last year. It was just a ridiculous trade a guy made for him and somebody gave him up for a lot. but like it was it was still stealing and it's the reason the guy won the league is he got puka and it was just hard i'm like jesus i mean you know it's just it's cooper cup reincarnated essentially in terms of stats you're just watching these layup targets you know he's getting him constantly so i couldn't i couldn't drop him lower than two and kind of what you said about jackson smith and jigba i mean we are the champions of jackson smith and jigba on the show um we've always loved him i think he's been a you know flag player for me the last three every every year
Starting point is 02:43:03 So having him at three is not a shock. And like I said last night, like those four, it's a hard line after after them. I mean, they're guaranteed top four and a hat, you know, one, two, three, Jemar, Puka, Jackson, Amonra. And then after what, Jamar and Puka, I'm drafting probably, or I have McCaffrey and Chase Brown between him and Jackson Smith and Jigba, but, but pretty much, you know, chalk for me. I bet you, Chuck. I know we've had to grapple with the talk to your children about Jackson Smith and Jigboe losing his offensive coordinator in the last week or so. How are you feeling about those guys? Yeah, to me, the top four this year is extremely clear.
Starting point is 02:43:48 And I think the only real debate point is three, four. I'll listen to arguments for Puka over Chase, but I think Chase and Puka are the clear three and four. You can interchange them how you want. And then I think there's a gap. And I am the way that I kind of resolve that in my head is who's throwing to these guys. Puga gets to catch passes from the kingmaker Matt Stafford. And I understand that Sam Darnold just won a Super Bowl last year. Props to him.
Starting point is 02:44:21 I would still prefer Matt Stafford. And the Seahawks just lost their coordinator. So that's where I break the tie. And then I think it's Amin Ra right after that. Yeah. Yeah, Amon Ra is almost, it's those three to me. And then it's kind of Amin Ra in his own space right there. Like I could definitely see a handful of weeks into this season and even definitely going in the next season going like Justin Jefferson's right back up there or C.D. Lambs right back up there. And flirting with that, you know, eighth overall, seventh, eighth overall. ADP.
Starting point is 02:45:03 I think one of the most interesting questions, and we can talk about Amin-Raw if y'all want to, but it's, there's honestly he's so good and so stable, there's not a lot to talk about. He has been wide receiver three, I think three years in a row. Just, I didn't see it coming out of college at all, so I was kind of a late adopter of his game. he got that like late weird buzz that happens in draft cycles where I'm like what it's happening and he fell pretty far and you know just all that stuff um and so I was kind of a late adopter but I got on board pretty quick and he's been just like a meal ticket he is just wide receiver three if you like that like there you go it's there for you're taking um if you want someone
Starting point is 02:45:54 that's going to set the record for most points scored in the season not going to do it Not going to do it. Not going to give you the most legendary wide receiver season that's ever happened. But if you want to throw somebody in there, set it and forget it kind of guy, Alman Ra is there. I think the most interesting decision that I've heard in this first, let's say, where does he end up? In these first two rounds, is there are people that are definitively on CD-LAM
Starting point is 02:46:29 or George Pickens. Like picking one or the other of, I saw what George did last year after CD was out. I owned CD two years ago, whenever he was the one receiver one. And kind of making, taking stances on those dudes and how they split. In a dynasty sense,
Starting point is 02:46:50 I'm like, just give me both because Pickens is going to be somewhere else at the end of next year. I put decent money on that. but how do you think the Cowboys passing game and how are you going to play those two guys as a result of that this season at least fits you know when I started looking at I'm like while Pickens out produced him and I you know I was sleeping on what happened to lamb last year being a lamb owner and but then you take out those two games where he basically didn't play at all
Starting point is 02:47:26 his numbers are affected quite a bit because it gets goose eggs in both games basically. I think you had 0.4 yards in one and zero in the other. And then you wipe that out and then all of a sudden he's 10th in standard scoring instead of like 20 second. And I'm sure it's similar in PPR formats as well. He would have been right between London and Chris Olive. And that's when I'm like, okay, yeah, that's right.
Starting point is 02:47:50 He did play hurt. And defenses are obviously going to adjust to how they're, how they're spreading the ball. around to Pickens. So I quickly went back to like, okay, land is still the preferred option here, I think,
Starting point is 02:48:02 in most passing sets. And so I had him, I got him close, though. I mean, there, Pickens is still, he's a massive, you know,
Starting point is 02:48:11 TD target and a red zone guy. And so I can't ignore that. He has a shithead. Oh, he named him as a little shithead team, and he could implode your team. And he's not a guy that I'm very comfortable calling out in draft.
Starting point is 02:48:23 So as close, it's kind of like the Christian McAfry thing. I have Pickens. there my top 12 and then uh am i going to call him out on draft day probably not unless he's really fallen so yeah i guess in leagues where people are taking pickens above lamb send send me an invite in if you're in that league i was listening to a fantasy pros podcast this morning and uh one of the guys was trying to make a name for himself staking i don't know there are pickins um he's you know whatever we wanted to quote from last year whenever cd was hurt
Starting point is 02:48:56 and miss time. So those people are out there. I would expect, I'd anticipate Pickens getting off the all shithead team bus for at least a couple months. His future earnings, the rest of his NFL career, kind of depends on him playing extremely well this season. If he duplicates what he did last year,
Starting point is 02:49:22 I think the reason he doesn't have a long-term deal is because he played well enough to demand about $35 million a year. And the Cowboys aren't interested in paying two wide receivers a combined north of $70 million a year. Moving forward and they, you know, if they do, the Cowboys have a stance, whether it's right or wrong. I have no idea. Not my business, not my, not my way to, not my thing to call.
Starting point is 02:49:48 But they have, they have a stance if they start paying somebody, whatever it is. I don't know where the number is. I don't know if it's 20 million, 25, 30 million. they really want that person to be a quote-unquote leader. They really want whoever their most paid players are to also be the teachers in the room. And that's why Micah is gone. And that's why Quinnon Williams is here. And Pickens, they are not going to give a long-term deal.
Starting point is 02:50:15 And the new Quinnon deal kind of supplant, you know, that stamps that for me. There's not going to be money there for Pickens. So I could maybe see him getting franchise tagged again and him being like, cool. thanks for another $30 million, like right in my pocket. But I have to imagine, like, the only way, the best thing for them is George Pickens balling out again. The best thing for George Pickens is George Pickens bawling out again. And then both parties can get what they want. And then maybe at the end of this season, you can trade them with a sign-in trade situation or something like that.
Starting point is 02:50:48 Or tag him and then trade him. I think that'd be pretty slick. But that's enough fucking contract talk. sorry. I just nerded out. Very interesting. For a minute. Well, it almost gives you a reason to, you know, you're not going to, if you're fading him, it's a reason to actually believe him in a little bit, you know.
Starting point is 02:51:07 Yeah, I just don't think that the shitheadedness is going to pop up at least until he's proven that he can play at the level he did last year and get that kind of money. Does that include taking your other star receiver into Vegas and getting hammered and puking night before a game? Hey, they serve their time. Yeah, boys, boys just want to have fun, okay? It's like he turned CD into his boy and now a sudden you're like, dude? Yeah.
Starting point is 02:51:36 Don't hang out with him. No. Don't hang out with him. Okay, so CD is going to 11.2 in ADP right now, according to Establish a Run. The next guy, I think, unanimously in the industry, the people that I really respect and think pretty highly of are putting a lot of tout and also just like a lot of their money behind the idea that Justin Jefferson can return to being a high-end wide receiver one. I feel pretty good. I've also seen some really,
Starting point is 02:52:16 really bad football from Kyler that last year and a half in Arizona whenever he came back from the injury. How are we feeling on Jets, Chuck? But is it worse than J.J. McCarthy? And I think that is your only entry. Exactly. That's my point. That is the only metric that you need to be judging Justin Jefferson by this year. Has he gotten worse?
Starting point is 02:52:41 Is his role in the offense changed? I think both of those answers are clearly no. He gets a quarterback upgrade. It's Chase and Lamb, I think, is the discussion. and that's like the next tier. And I'm open to either, but I think there's a gap after that. I think looking at ETR's ranking of where they have Jefferson, which is seventh overall, he has to do better than just don't be playing with J.J. McCarthy.
Starting point is 02:53:13 He has to get back. He has to get back to like 1,600 yards, Justin Jefferson, to kind of justify that. So I get what you're saying, where you probably have him and where most people have him, but where some people are staking him and going like I think he's right back is back to Kirk Cousin's years it's back to having a quarterback that can really facilitate him on all those 15-yard end-breaking routes
Starting point is 02:53:38 that are coming at you 30 times a game and maybe Kyler's there I don't know I need to watch a I need to see Kyler play like I really really need to see Kyler play the only reason he's not he's a fantasy zombie and he just kind of got revived by this and it's kind of why I'm I kind of like Kyler as a as a backup plan as my
Starting point is 02:53:56 second quarterback because he's got that he's got the baseline of running we all know that but he was also hurt in multiple injuries last year I just it's it's Kevin O'Connell and I'm going to believe in him again because we saw again it went of course Sam Darnnell did go on and win a Super Bowl so
Starting point is 02:54:14 maybe he wasn't the magic you know the secret sauce in that whole equation and this is sort of his this is Kevin O'Connell's prove it year one thing I I think it's interesting is that they named Kyler the starter very, very early in training camp. And then you hear these whispers that things aren't going so well and he's not grasping the offense. And I remember hearing that same rhetoric when Justin Jefferson was a rookie. And week three, he just like just started kicking ass.
Starting point is 02:54:41 And it's like when they start floating that stuff out, I wonder, maybe we shouldn't be buying that bullshit. And I'm tempted to see, well, first of all, this is by far. the best receiver he's ever had. I mean, any quarterback would say that if they're playing in Minnesota. But I like the other two receivers there too. And they actually got a pretty favorable schedule. Like I said last night, they're in top three like situations. Them,
Starting point is 02:55:06 Andy, and Philly. So it's a, it's a pretty easy way to ease Kyler into that whole thing. And that's, I felt decent about putting Jefferson in five. But I don't know how you guys feel about Chris Olavi, but I'm a, I feel
Starting point is 02:55:22 like everybody's sleeping on him a little too much this year. Is it because of his concussions, the last injury he had in the last game? Or it's because he's a shorter, you know, alpha receiver. I'm kind of very curious to know what you guys think about Chris Olavé because we all think, we talked about a little bit last night. We're kind of a little bit bullish on the Saints improving from last year with Kellan Moore at the call in the plays. And we think Tyler Shuck's going to make a step.
Starting point is 02:55:48 I don't know why Chris Olavie is still getting left off the top 10. behind some of these guys. And I'm very curious to know what you guys think about him as a whole. Don't be too loud. Just let it happen. Just let us. I'll take him in the third guys. It's fine.
Starting point is 02:56:04 It's fine. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the thing about Chris Alave is he's one hit away from dying. So nobody should draft him in probably the top 30 picks. He's a fragile little man. It plays for a bad football team.
Starting point is 02:56:20 So I wouldn't bother with him anybody. No, I mean, that's a great call. I think he, it's one of those things. It's like CMC, whenever CMC showed you multiple times in a row, and you got this like double stamping of him being injury prone and really wrecking your season. Alave did that people. There were a lobby believers, and then they would overdraft
Starting point is 02:56:41 and acquire Christiola Ve at cost or above cost. And then he burned them two or three years in a row with concussions, with major concussions and missing big time. And, you know, I have not, we have a real doctor on, but I'm not a brain doctor. And I think that's just something like you could just wear a different fucking helmet, dude, and play a little bit different. And maybe don't bang your head on the goddamn astroturf in the New Orleans Stadium so often. And that kind of goes away.
Starting point is 02:57:13 And so, you know, I think it's just a dude that has shown that in like connective seasons, season to season that he can get hurt in a major way. And so everybody ducks there. There's a whole 30% of the fantasy crowd that just won't fuck with Chris Alabe at cost. I'm not one of those people. Like I think there is profit to be made from finding guys that either have really weird injuries that are recurring. Like you're Christian Watson's, your Christian McCaffrey's of, Man, eventually these teams have so much invested in this player.
Starting point is 02:57:55 They're going to figure out how to make this little health thing go away for them. And they're going to teach Christian Watson how to run properly and not strain his hamstring whenever he gets to 25 miles per hour down the field. They're going to figure out what kind of helmet Chris Olavay needs to wear and what kind of neck thing he needs to wear it. It keeps his head from jolting around like that like it would. Christian McCaffrey is going to figure out how to train where he doesn't burn his body out every year and tear something. I just think over time these things, if these guys are young enough, the doctors in the NFL are pretty fucking good. Like honestly, like they will figure out the physios will figure out how to make it work for you. So I love Chris Alave as a callout.
Starting point is 02:58:41 And I hope people are scared of him still. What do you think, Chuck? Outside of JSN, everyone that we're talking about is in experience. extremely favorable offensive environments with competent plus quarterbacks, innovative plus coordinators that are established as the number one pass catcher in that environment. And I think Chris Olavay's biggest counter argument is they took a wide receiver in the first round of the draft very, very highly in the most recent draft. And I'm a big Jordan Tyson guy, but he now seems to be starting.
Starting point is 02:59:20 the Christian Watson path, and he's, you know, early in that, and he's going to miss, I don't know, probably at least two months of the season is the thing. That's not even new. That's not even new for him. He's just, he's always hurt. Exactly. And so I think Christian Watson is now his best case scenario. So in a Kellynmore offense with a competent quarterback with only Joanne Johnson that he's really
Starting point is 02:59:47 heavily competing with targets for. I love him. So I think after C.LAM and Justin Jefferson, I think most people are going to go to A.J. Brown, and I'm not trying to grab the wheel here. But I think that's the range we're talking about. So who's your next guy after C.D. and Justin Jefferson are off the board. I got a lot of ahead.
Starting point is 03:00:13 I got him six just because of the thing about C.D. is, well, there are going to be a lot of targets in that offense, but I mean, it's not, he's not going to be one because there's just too much competition there. And that's kind of what I have them, CD and George kind of bunched down a little bit, like how do you view them? And you can't just make them five and six. So, okay, at some point, you've got to be like, okay, Chris Oliva is getting a shit ton of volume, a shit ton of targets.
Starting point is 03:00:40 And we saw finally last year that he's going to score touchdowns. And because he is that guy and the Tyson injury, he's their most important weapon on an offense and it's not even close. So if we think they're going to take the next step, then I'm taking that plunge. And this is, I think these are the kind of margins that you have to try to go for. If you really want to win something, this is where you have to find that advantage. And I'm taking my shot with him at six. Yeah, I think these guys, whenever I look at this stack over here,
Starting point is 03:01:11 where you actually have to make decisions, which is what, like 18 to 25, five-ish is kind of the range we're talking about. AJ Brown would be my next guy. At least for this season. Obviously, long-term, Alave's significantly younger. And I think whoever's going to be tied to Drake May, Drake May's number one wide receiver is going to be extremely profitable for the next two to three years.
Starting point is 03:01:44 And yeah, they brought in Romeo Dubs. y'all are very aware of, you know, his game. They got a bunch of randos that play wide receiver. Diggs is obviously gone. They didn't really address past catching tied in. I mean, I have high hopes for Eli Rairden, but, you know, if he gets more than 40 balls, I think something's gone wrong. I think AJ Brown is going to get an insane amount of targets.
Starting point is 03:02:10 The same fashion that Chris Alave does, I think they're about, the split of the offense is going to be about the same between Olavay and AJ Brown. And AJ Brown has proven to be a more explosive player over time and is definitely has a longer track record of getting in the end zone. So at least for this season, I think AJ Brown, I'd be fine with either one. Like if there's a way to get both, if you have that first pick and you're coming back at 24, 25, and for some reason, both those guys are there. Like, that is wheels up.
Starting point is 03:02:44 I don't, you're not going to see a second. tick off the clock like i'll just bam man bye see you go on down the road so i like them both there there's no fades of those two but a j round i think i have slightly above um that would mean i'm kind of fading drake london um i think i think a j brown chriselave nico would be my preferred order there and then maybe drake london after that um And I don't think he's bad. I don't think he's... Drake Glennon is a little bit...
Starting point is 03:03:24 Not a... I don't know. I've had enough Drake Glennon experience where I've seen weeks where I'm like... They just phase him the fuck out of a game. They don't consistently target him. He's a pretty frustrating own, to be honest. But, I mean, it can go Nitro real easy.
Starting point is 03:03:47 I was laughing. last year when he was spiking and then he got hurt. You're like, yeah. That was the moment in his career that it took the turn, maybe I don't know. I just don't think whenever you put numbers, apples to apples, numbers and numbers and numbers of Drake London with the rest of these dudes, I don't think he weighs up to it next or as of right now. It's hard to project guys like that when they skyrocket here with points per game, but
Starting point is 03:04:10 it's half the sample size of most of these guys. And you're like, well, if you project that over, you multiply that times two. Well, that's not how we, that's not how this goes. Yeah. You know, defense has changed. They play a different level of competition. Yeah, copy and pasting the efficiency of whatever your best games were onto the rest of the season that you didn't play.
Starting point is 03:04:30 Like, that's not real, right? I think Bejon is the focus, the offense. I think Kyle Pitts is a real threat for a lot of targets. Both those quarterbacks are pretty high on my list of, Ashchique quarterbacks that I don't really want anything to do with that defense I mean this could work both ways of the defense being
Starting point is 03:04:55 pretty bad in that they're chasing scores but also just like not getting that many possessions because they can't get off the field so I don't know I'm having a hard time finding my way to drink London
Starting point is 03:05:11 in drafts with the wealth of wide receivers that are in this range and how and the thing about Stavonsky, Tafansky, and Drake London, and how is that going to work? I don't really know. I'm still trying to guess, you know. I'm trying to think of comps and offenses that he's had, and I know he had cousins
Starting point is 03:05:31 throwing, but that was before Justin Jefferson. I believe that's correct. And I don't really know. It's kind of some guesswork right now with him and how that's going to shake out. Because, like you said, his priority is to get. he's on the ball. Yeah, I think the key to the Drake London equation this year is how many games do you think he has to endure with Tua?
Starting point is 03:05:56 Is it one? Is it three? Is it five? Yeah. I think it's safely less than half the year. The guy that I'm struggling with the most in this range is Malik Neighbors. Because two years ago, he is, his ADP is actually before London, at least on FFPC. your home draft app might be different but I think I'm going to be chasing the feeling of
Starting point is 03:06:24 rookie year malik neighbors for as long as I play this game and if if you're telling me the giants are going to go back to something like that granted different coach different coordinator malik coming off the injury but I remember that ride and I would really really really love to go back is it going to happen again, Fidsey? Not to that level. I mean, I think I said last in our opener. Terrible answer. What about you, Mike?
Starting point is 03:06:54 Well, there's that line after Zayflowers. I have Malik in that sort of pocket still. I mean, I guess if you want to count like after Amon Ra, AAR, he's in that, he's in the conversation for sure. I mean, when I have him like right after T. Higgins and Devontas Smith, he's in that same neighborhood, no pun intended. But I can't just jump a guy that just had that kind of injury with that offense and that quarterback who's also prone to injury, very prone to injury. I'm like, I just, I'm not going to hint.
Starting point is 03:07:30 Again, I understand the home run swing. We talk about that all the time. I get it. But I can't, I haven't gotten there yet with him. Yeah, I think the things that would give me a definitive stance on. on Malik neighbors, which is I'm fine with them at cost right now. But the thing that would drastically sway my opinion of where we need to take Malik neighbors is, can you tell me how many games are Jackson Dart versus Jamis?
Starting point is 03:08:00 And then what are they trying to do on offense? I don't even know who the offensive coordinator is right now. I can't name the Giants' offense coordinator. Obviously, no John Harbaugh as the head coach. I think he would really love to just grind. It's naggy. Perfect. Yeah, great.
Starting point is 03:08:21 I think Harbaugh would love to just grind the living shit out of a game and let the defense take care of it. But I can't deny just the nuclear talent that is Malik neighbors. I don't know. Hopefully, well, not hopefully. But maybe he'll start the season slow. And that's a buy opportunity for literally everybody. I keep checking online and like, okay, do we have some video of him running past routes today?
Starting point is 03:08:49 I just keep, you know, I'm constantly looking at it because I want to jump him up there, Chuck. I feel you on this. I mean, the people that Mike sign Mike's paycheck are flag planting Malik neighbors this year. I was expecting a stronger stance. One of my money paychecks. Do tell. Yeah, Corain. Corain's really on
Starting point is 03:09:13 neighbors, but he was I feel like he keeps talking about him because he was getting him like later in his early offseason best ball bags whenever everyone was scared that Malik might end up on pup and then it was well Malik might just miss the opening game or two
Starting point is 03:09:29 and then it was oh Malik's seems to be kind of fine for week one and we'll see what that what version of fine that is I just I you know we're playing a super high stakes league if he falls somewhere
Starting point is 03:09:48 I'm definitely comfortable making a unique team with Malik neighbors on there I think that can be super fun I think jumping in at cost to an injury guy on an offense that I don't necessarily like I think you're just taking on a lot of unnecessary risk so on every site that everyone listening to this is going to draft on he is a third round pick
Starting point is 03:10:11 so you can already have a wide receiver before you take him. Yeah, as a wide receiver two, if you're a double running back guy and then you're going to lean on bleak neighbors as your wide receiver one and then you're going to get tantalized by a tight end into the fourth and then you're coming back in the fifth looking for your wide receiver two to stabilize the league neighbor's wide receiver one.
Starting point is 03:10:35 That's going to be a tough build. It's a very tough build. But I mean, I obviously love the guy. I really want him to get. get super healthy and be himself again. He is. So let's get to this question of if one of these dudes that we just kind of ran through, I'm going to start at the, I'm just thinking about ADP, that ETR is showing me.
Starting point is 03:10:59 London, Brown, Collins, Pickens, Rishi Olavet, neighbors. This bundle. One of those dudes is going to crack into this impenetrable top four. or just join the sidecar and now there's a top five. Did you say Rishi? Is that what you said? Rishie, dude, Rishis going 26 overall.
Starting point is 03:11:20 What the fuck are people doing, man? It's just fucking stupid. It's just fucking stupid. I'm sorry. I got to take my stand here. When I said Zay Flowers is a cutoff, that's what I meant. And he's the next guy,
Starting point is 03:11:29 maybe. What the fuck has he done to deserve that? Can somebody answer this question? He's been a PPR scam for the consensus, best quarterback of this era for two. years now. And he's a six game player, which is over under this year. He's got more legal. It's legal
Starting point is 03:11:47 shit every year and he plays half the season. And because he's a chief, we're just going to jack up his price and people are going to buy into the hype and I'm like, not doing it. If you show anything close to being a wide receiver one for the chiefs,
Starting point is 03:12:03 you're going around too early for the rest of your life. That's just. In some weeks, dude, some weeks and stretches of seasons, I get so fucking mad about Rushy Rice because he is cooking. Yeah. And he is catching like 13 balls a game and they're all screens.
Starting point is 03:12:24 And it's just absolute nonsense. And I'm never in on Rishi Rice. I'm just never in on him. And then I get pissed at myself going, man, you should have at least gotten some. You should have paid the price. You should have paid the price at some point. And then two weeks later, he's out for the year or he's out until December. Yeah, it's it's always the high, you're always chasing the dragon.
Starting point is 03:12:43 You're constantly chasing the dragon on Rishi Rice. Like as soon as you find it, like you're, it's, it, it comes around and bites you in the ass. Like that's, what's weird about that offense is like, who is going to be catching the passes? Because I don't, I've, I've never really bought much into the Longhorn Boy, X. I just not, I haven't thought, I thought that he was always just kind of a speed demon. And maybe he is going to get some of the leftovers from Rishi, probably not going to be starting week one. I don't know.
Starting point is 03:13:14 I don't really know who to buy that offense. Maybe it's the rookie with Cyrus Allen. He's getting some good. He's getting some good. He's getting some love. I think if you're in a PPR league, it's tough to get away from Rice for the exact reasons you just said. Your other options are, you know, Travis Kelsey,
Starting point is 03:13:33 who probably should have retired two years ago or, as one podcast I was listening to today put it Javier Worthy Xavier. Xavier. Javier Worthy. All right. Maybe we just keep...
Starting point is 03:13:48 It's an X. Maybe I just woke up today and moved Kenneth Walker giving up another run because they will I mean he's the office. And we got Patrick Mahomes who's coming off the injury. It's just another reason
Starting point is 03:14:00 to move Kenneth Walker past James Cook today. Yeah. Okay. So back to my question before I made Fitz furious by reading, Rishi Rice's ADP at him. Drake London, AJ Brown,
Starting point is 03:14:16 Nico Collins, George Pickens, Rishi Rice, who shall not be named anymore. Chris Alave, Malik Neighbors is a little bundle here before we get down to end of the 30s on ADP. Of those guys, who can join the top four and make it make it like a big five?
Starting point is 03:14:37 I'll say this as someone who's sold AJ Brown everywhere that I had him in Dynasty this year. It's AJ Brown. Yeah. If he's healthy in that offense and it doesn't, if it doesn't significantly change the A.D. I think it's A.J. Brown. Or Malik neighbors. But AJ Brown is my bet. I don't have any problem with that answer.
Starting point is 03:15:00 I mean, you know, I love that. We've been talking about A.J. Brown so much lately. And he just, you know, he's kind of like he's the receiving version of Kenneth Walker. for me. I keep bumping up just every time we talk about him. I'm like, yeah, it makes sense. Nico, we haven't really talked about it all. Terrible O-line. Favorable schedule.
Starting point is 03:15:18 He's Nico. As long as he's healthy, he's comfortably in the top 10, right? And he's always, you know, he probably isn't going to finish his wide receiver one because I don't really like his quarterback very much, but he just keeps producing every single season. So he's kind of just, he's that, he's pretty safe.
Starting point is 03:15:35 Honestly, he's one of those safe players that he's pretty dependable. not going to win your league anymore, I don't think. But fine. If you told me Nico is playing every game, I think he'd be pretty high up my list on guys that could, he could be the fifth fighter receiver starting next year. But he's missed significant time every year with some kind of major injury.
Starting point is 03:16:00 And so the guys I don't think under any circumstance would be in the top five next year. Pickens just because situation. Rishie Rice. Yeah, he was. He was. I mean, CD missed time. Pickens, Rishi,
Starting point is 03:16:20 I don't think will be ever in the first round pick. I thought Drake London in there. The rest of them I could see like getting up to White Receiver 5 this year. I could see AJ Brown doing it. I could see Malik neighbors doing it.
Starting point is 03:16:35 I could see it happening in Nico. And obviously a lobby. as well. So if I had to put money on one, oh boy. It's, yeah, it's AJ Brown. It's AJ. Yeah, so I think I just made my decision of who I wanted to that group. Just talk, just talk myself into it. Okay, so here starts, maybe one of my favorite little stretches of the draft. If I could get a million picks through here, I probably would. And so this next tier starts with, not even tiers, let's just say this little stretch
Starting point is 03:17:26 ADP from 30s, 34 to about, let's say 50. DeVontas Smith, Zay Flowers, Ted McMillan, Garrett Wilson, a meccaat-Buca, Tee Higgins, McConkey Jalen Waddle and we'll throw the old dudes in there Devante Adams DJ Moore Terry McClorn's around there too and Luther Burden was here and she probably should still be in here in this range who's who's your favorite guy through this little run I think me and Daigle we're calling this a wide receiver wall the other night this I they only dudes out of this range I'm like, I don't really want to mess with them that much is, is T. Higgins, Devante Adams. The rest of them, you can talk me into all of those things that cost.
Starting point is 03:18:22 And that's a, that rarely happens in drafts. Like, rarely can I find just like a whole round stretch where I'm like, I feel great. Let's live here a while. Let's stay here. You want to move here, honey? Let's live. It's nice, isn't it? What do you think, Chuck?
Starting point is 03:18:39 I mean, are we first question, are we firm on the wide receiver wall? Because that sounds like you're trying to keep people out. That sounds like an uninviting place. Can we consider the wide receiver spa, perhaps the wide receiver lus veranda? I want as many of these guys as I can get. The wide receiver sirens. That's where they are. As far as we're concerned, it's a wide receiver dead zone.
Starting point is 03:19:03 If anybody's listening and going to be making actionable moves off this, this is the wide receiver dead zone. you don't want these guys. I will take them and love me worry about them. Draft quarterbacks. Yeah, this is a good range for quarterback. This is where you need to take Lamar. This is where you need to reach up for Tyler Warren or Harold Fanon.
Starting point is 03:19:25 I think of the guys you mentioned the only guy that I'm somewhat fading just because I'm very rigid in my process and I fade older receivers is Devante Adams. I think there's questions around Emeka Abuka and his turf toe, but otherwise, I think Zay might be the top of this tier, but I like all of them. What do you think, Fitz? Well, I got Devontas Smith, and I could easily be talked into Zay Flowers, even though I have him a couple spots below Devontah because Zay has kind of everything going for him. His quarterback's getting healthy. He's by far the alpha pass catcher now in that offense, not even close. really, is it? If I'm missing, I think I'm missing anything there. For Zay? Yeah.
Starting point is 03:20:11 Jacoby Lane is kind of coming on. Baby was having a good camp before his little, his little whatever's going on with him. Josh Jacobs. Yeah. It's clearing the path for Jose Flowers season. But yeah, DeVontz-Smith, I mean, he's
Starting point is 03:20:27 finally got the guy we just talked about, you know, three minutes ago. I mean, he's got it now. He's the guy. Goddard's old as fuck. And Mike Lemon, He's going to have some rookie issues, I think. And then, of course, they got Sequin. But I think it does set up well nicely for DeMontes Smith to have his big pop year this year.
Starting point is 03:20:47 And he's already, he's just consistent. He's been consistent every year. We know how good he is. We saw how dominant he can be in college when he's getting fed. So he's the most potentially nuclear guy this year. He just doesn't really, I mean, it's almost like he doesn't have enough being taken away from him. but I'll say Devonta Smith. I did want to, you mentioned you're not big on T.
Starting point is 03:21:10 Is it just because he's inconsistent? Yeah. I mean, it's injury and just having a cap on targets unless Jamar Chase gets hurt. And their usage of Chase Brown, if they're going to use Chase Brown as much as I think this year, I do appreciate the super concentrated nature of the offense, but it is like there's a couple of blue chip guys, and then T kind of exists down here. Um, and I, I, when T go is bad when he's playing through injury, man, it really fucks you. Because you had to draft him at a startable spot. Um, and you're rolling him out there as a starter.
Starting point is 03:21:49 And it's like, some weeks it is just magical. They'll do some crazy shit and get two touchdowns and nobody. The third corner on the other team, like has no chance against T. Higgins. But man, when it, when it, when it flatlines, it's, he's, he's. he's like not a part of the offense and I've lived through that so maybe I'm being a little bit stubborn but I don't really have much interest in and T in that in that range if he's falling behind these dudes um if he's in the closer to the devante adams DJ Moore at the end of the 40s like he belongs in the devante Adams DJ Moore Terry McLaren range for me um but he lives in the
Starting point is 03:22:31 egg buca Jalen Wattle range and I'm just never making that decision. I'm not an egg booker guy, by the way, just because I'm not fucking with turf toe. You mentioned it, but that's, sorry, not. This is one of those guys you mentioned with the bumper cars. He's not,
Starting point is 03:22:49 I'm not drafting him this year. No, I mean, that's fair. Like, anybody that has a major injury already to this rule them off your board, that's probably a pretty safe way to draft. But, you know, he's he's a tricky one because I obviously know how he started last year and I know that the raw numbers overall ended in a spot that made it look like his rookie season was good but after the first half of the season him getting injured Baker his shoulder like falling off it was just guys that you drafted at starters as starters that were just absolutely fucking killing you he is he is the uh and I want I want to go on this two
Starting point is 03:23:34 long because I know we're in this pocket but like that's why I'm starting to look at some of those late round guys those other bucks they have to be moving up if you believe in fading the injury mm-hmm yeah who do you who do you like in this range Chuck if you got a if you're if you're sitting there and let's say let's say best available I'm not going to give you an easy out was they or Tet or even Garrett Wilson let's do the rest let's do the Bucca, McConkey, Waddle, the old fuckers of Devontaine, DJ Moore, and obviously the burden of McLaurin grouping. Early in the offseason, I was a huge F1 guy, but now I think in the list of names you gave me, I think it's probably Luther Burden. His underlying metrics are elite.
Starting point is 03:24:31 Ben Johnson can't stop talking about him. So he's probably the next guy for me. And I've been a DJ more hater for, I don't know, probably two years now. But I remember the Stefan Diggs experience in Buffalo with Josh Allen. And I think he is at risk of going a little too late. And I think right after him is where there's a big tear break. Yeah. I'll be the wattle guy, if you're going to make me.
Starting point is 03:25:02 I think Jalen Waddle is an absolutely elite football player and has overcome a lot in Miami to have two or three straight hundred ball seasons. Obviously, they're drastically different seasons. One of them's, you know, nine yards per catch. One of them's 15 yards per catch season. So he's been used in different ways. but I mean, if you give up a first and a third on a team that needed explosiveness in the passing game, like the Broncos needed, if they weren't getting a chump play out of Corlin Sutton, like, bodding somebody 20 yards down the field, it was just not happening unless it's RJ Harvey out of the backfield. So I think Sean Payton is one of our best offensive coaches.
Starting point is 03:25:51 He just gave up a fucking truckload for a player that I already liked. I don't have any, I don't have any signals. from the Waddle Bronco situation, besides if you just don't think Bo Nex has it to tell me that Waddle's not going to weigh pop above his ADP. So I'm going to get as much Waddle as I can possibly get. Yeah, I'm, I was Open Your Eyes kind of thing when they've made that trade.
Starting point is 03:26:25 I do, because of that trade, I sort of am like, is a Siki way to throw out Corlin Sutton late in that draft because, again, it's about the offense. It's not just about the player. And it does free a little bit of Cortland Sutton up for me. I know his metrics aren't incredible, and he is getting up there in age. But he's still, like you said, big body guy, more one-on-one situations.
Starting point is 03:26:47 And they're balanced about it. It's all about waddle in the zone and Cortland against man. And that's why you do it. As long as they can stay healthy, it's a perfect setup for what Sean Payton wants to do. And it's another, it's a reminder that, Bo Nix could pop this year. He is coming off that ankle, so it makes me trepidious about him.
Starting point is 03:27:08 Both ankles. Yeah, I want a piece of that passing game at some point. So I'm either getting Waddle or sudden in both leagues that I'm, both home leagues I'm playing in the next couple drafts. Yeah, I want pieces of Sean Payton offense, because I think if they do decide to concentrate, targets and just say like I'm not fucking with Evan Ingram anymore. Hey Pat Bryant. Thanks for your, you know, efforts.
Starting point is 03:27:41 We're getting four balls a game and that's kind of it. And it's just Sutton and Waddle. Like that's, I think Waddle could have some really, really big numbers that makes, I don't know, him going behind, whereas he is 48.6 right now. Like him going behind, lad might look silly, him going behind team might look silly, depending on Egbuka's injury situation,
Starting point is 03:28:10 you could go, well, that was the decision. That was the one that turned my whole season. I chose Igbuka over Jalen Waddle, and Eg Bucca never got better, and Jailen Waddle put up 1,300 yards. So I'm a big Waddle stand, bullish on what he can bring to the Broncos, pretty immediately.
Starting point is 03:28:35 There's a couple of guys in here that are like really fucking good that we just never get talked about in Tet and Garrett Wilson. I never hear anybody talk about either of those dudes at all outside of the quarterbacks are bad and bad offenses. Well, you got to like them on some level because they're going 39 overall and 40 overall. So do either these guys get you excited at all or is it just kind of a reluctant All right, I need a wide receiver too. How do you feel, Chuck?
Starting point is 03:29:06 I mean, my next guy is Ted. He was a flag plant for me last year. Kind of worked. It was nicer when he was cheaper. He's going to project for a huge slice of the pie. You know, how gross is that pie when you have to eat it? I think that's why he's down here. Who is the other name you mentioned?
Starting point is 03:29:28 Garrett Wilson. Okay, yeah, copy and paste. I think the reason I would have Garrett Wilson a little bit lower is just because it's not a talent argument. It's a where did the Jets put their draft capital this year? It was past catchers. And so I would prefer to have less competition, but I think Gino is probably better than who's slinging the rock down in Carolina. So that's how I fall on that. You guys both seem to like that and you liked them last year.
Starting point is 03:29:59 is your main thought for Tet is that he's a second year wide receiver. I mean, he was good to start the year. Then he kind of tail off. And he was actually getting out produced and out targeted by Jalen Koker. Definitely a flag player for me this year. It makes me a little trepidacious about Tedroa. But then I was like, he's only 23 years old. I mean, I think, hell, I think Coker's 24.
Starting point is 03:30:22 But Brasel is out for eight weeks with the LCLTA. I don't know when that came down, but I just came across it today. I'm like, really? Okay. Interesting news. I don't I don't like their schedule makeup and their situation and I'm not in love with Bryce. So I can't get too gung-ho when there's another receiver. He's going to be taking some targets away. And they like to run the shit out of the ball. Ted, I could see him being higher than I have them, which is 26 over for receivers, which is just I know it sounds really low. But I'm not, I want to know, I want to drink. I want to see what I don't know what you guys are drinking with Tet a little more.
Starting point is 03:30:59 elaborate on it. Yeah, I mean, he produced last year in a pretty bad situation. And that was a really good signal from a rookie year, what he threw in there. And I know it wasn't like setting the world on fire. It wasn't a Justin Jefferson rookie year, for instance, but it was a good enough signal on an offense that we don't really trust and didn't really have a lot of volume. So if any of those knobs get turned like a degree or two and he adjusts in the way that I think he, is going to, which is he just does some magic tricks, man. He absolutely has a couple of things in his bag that most wide receivers in the league just can't get to and being 6'4, being constantly available on in-breaking routes.
Starting point is 03:31:49 He's analytics darling whenever you start chopping up the numbers and things like that. And I mean, I watched a lot of them last year because he was a very highly owned player. and I don't think he got one easy fucking ball like the entire year. It was like he's playing for goddamn Texas A&M or something, dude. Like every catch had to be nuts. Had to be a giant spinning, sweeping, like pluck it out of the air. Bryce Young could not get him the ball.
Starting point is 03:32:19 And so everything was earned. There was no easy automatic stuff. Late in the season, they started giving him a little bit of, you know, hey, just do a seven-yard stop route, get at the tet, move the chains, go on. And he evolved pretty nicely. And it was, you know, the numbers didn't follow necessarily of like him becoming a huge numbers guy or putting up 20 a game or something like that. But it started looking a lot easier of them just going like, oh, he can win these three routes against just about anybody. So it's kind of more of a real football thing that it is.
Starting point is 03:33:00 Ted's going to become a wide receiver one. I legitimately think he's a guy that you just want to have that ticket when he does become whatever it is. And it might be early. It might be he needs a different quarterback. They need to decide Bryce Young's not it. And literally, sorry, anybody else in the league. But just think of how excited you'd be if Tet was with. Baker.
Starting point is 03:33:31 Yeah, Baker, Drake May, anybody that is willing to stand in there and deliver the ball across the middle. Because he's got it, man. I think he's definitely got it. Yeah, I think the argument for Ted is he was a prospect, darling. His underlying metrics last year were good, not great. And I'm a casual Cokehead with Jalen, Coker, but not a, you know, he's certainly not someone that I'm flag planting. And so I think if he
Starting point is 03:34:05 approaches like a really high target share this year like I expect him to, then that plus him being a second year wide receiver that was a good prospect that was drafted highly is enough for me. Hey, you could get your wish and Kenny Pickett might be throwing to him this year. I think it's bad. Does that get you excited? Or if Haynes King fights through injury and he wins that third you never know i think i'd rather haines king i mean that's sad some haines king yeah he would do some wild shit he would try he'd push the ball down the field uh yeah can we just get andy alton in there for like one one or two games this year he's always good for it's just hard it's just hard to punch tickets with carolina panthers it always has it seems
Starting point is 03:34:53 like it has been for a long time well and this is one of those things where it's like I don't rule players out necessarily off the board because the offense they're in. Like, I'm not going to, like, completely rule out, Ted. I'm not going to completely rule out Garrett Wilson. But I'm also not going to take multiples in that offense. We learned last year with Indianapolis. Like, you have to pay attention to every team. Yeah.
Starting point is 03:35:20 If I am planning on taking Jonathan Brooks later, which I most likely am, I do not want multiple pieces of the parents. anthra's offense. I do not want, if I'm a Breast Hall guy, I'm not really interested in also having Breast Hall and Garrett Wilson being tied to that boat.
Starting point is 03:35:39 So, whenever you are fucking around with really bad offenses, like, you kind of got to pick one. You don't really want to spread it across the board and just play, just give me all odds. Like, fuck it. Roll the wheel. There's a conversation piece to be had about,
Starting point is 03:35:56 you know, one of the receivers you named and I have the other one in the same actually have them ahead but the Roma dunzae Luther burden debate is kind of it's which it's like Beatles or Stones this year which I I kind of fall into Roma dunzae just because I kind of feel that uh I know what Luther burden has I feel like he's he's destined to get hurt the way he plays and throws his body around I love Roma dunzae and I have since he was in college um I have him ahead of him but I kind of want to hear you guys kind of spin on that one because I don't really, it's a tough one.
Starting point is 03:36:30 You can change your mind pretty quickly on that. I think the sharps and the pros in the industry are all so rock hard, bricked up for Luther Burton that we have forgotten Romadunzei like exists and had a really awesome start to the season. So I like the Roma Dunesay call. Where is he going? Looks like 61 overall. Like if I'm sitting there to need a wide receiver later and I got smoked out of the, or if I just did take a Waddle Luther burden, whatever.
Starting point is 03:37:12 But I just don't think that's, it's not really a debate on where those guys are going to go right now. Burden's going to go ahead of him just because all the sharps are on burden because he won people a lot of money at the end of the year last year. And he's considered the Amman Ross St. Brown and the in the Johnson offense. Yeah, yeah, we've shifted away from him being the, oh, maybe he'll be James and Williams to the, oh, Luther Burton's good enough to be, you know,
Starting point is 03:37:43 Kmart, Alman Ross, St. Brown. And before his injury, I think, I would have gotten fucking alcohol poisoning, trying to keep up with where Luther Burden was going dude he was creeping up really high he was above this group like he was like in the zayflowers territory and to be to be clear though luther burman's back in practice yesterday right so he's supposed to be good to go for week one which you know you might need to know that going into your draft yeah yeah i wouldn't factor in he was just there's what i'm looking at which
Starting point is 03:38:23 is like 54 overall on ETR and then there's where I know he's going in like sharp draft and industry drafts and you just you won't get him there because there's some Luther burden truth are in your draft
Starting point is 03:38:41 if you're playing for big dollars or on a big site. But I like the Rome call. If Rome's fully healthy, I like it. I don't have a problem with it. Um, the next group of guys, uh, you'll tell me who you want to talk about. Um, Mike Evans, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, who I will absolutely talk about here in a minute.
Starting point is 03:39:09 Uh, Carnell Tate, Marvin Harrison and Cortland Sutton, um, who you fired up about in that range. It's, or go ahead, Chuck. Okay. I think the next guy that I would, that I would, that I would draft is James and Williams. Just given the talent, given the situation, they're going to be a shootout team, finishes the wide receiver 12 last year. I think he's an ideal three for me, but that's just how I like to draft. I think he's fine as a wide receiver two, who is an every week threat to finish as a
Starting point is 03:39:43 wide receiver one. And I think after him, we enter this weird pocket where I'm looking at other positions. I love JMO, and I have him, I have him 19. which I'm not sure what you guys have in there. But yeah, he's totally, yeah, he's a wide receiver one on some weeks. And just that offense, it just leaves all those guys pretty, a lot of freedom to blow up. And I kind of just want to talk about Carnal Tate just because it's fun. You talked, you talked about Bryce throwing these shitty balls to Tett and him having to do all the work.
Starting point is 03:40:19 That's all I saw on Carnell Tate's tape is, I don't know, I don't know how they won a national championship a couple years ago. And I don't know how Julian saying was, I think he was in New York for the Heism and Trophy ceremony. And I'm like, these passes are awful. They're all underthrown. They're freaking ducks. And Carnal Tate is doing all the work on them.
Starting point is 03:40:40 And his 50-50 ball skills are absolutely elite. Now, he was never considered a quote, wide receiver won on his team, which is a little bit weird to be drafted that high as a top five. overall, but, and I don't love the offense, but if he's, if he's doing that with, you know, the way those passes are terrible and he's, and he's putting, you know, he's getting drafted in the top five. He's, he's clearly ahead of the class. And he's, he's, he's capable of having a double-digit touchdown season, even with a shitty quarterback who's potentially going to
Starting point is 03:41:16 be less shitty in year two. Yeah, I mean, there's going to be a lot of off-script shit happening with Kim Ward. And I, I'd really appreciate it if all that gets focused. on Carnell Tate. And I could see him having maybe a little bit better season than Luther Burden did last year. Where it's,
Starting point is 03:41:40 I think he'll be more consistent to start the season. And then hopefully there's a couple games that are just like the oh shit like Carnal Tate's arrived, like four for 130 and two touchdowns kind of games because he is, a very, very good deep ball tracker.
Starting point is 03:41:58 You know, people think of Jeremiah Smith because obvious reasons, but he's, he's a absolute T-Rex in his own right. And I think we're kind of, we're a little bit sleeping on Carnal Tate. You know, I don't know if he, I don't know what he turns into just because I don't know what Kim Ward is exactly, but I think he's got the town. and Daibol, you know, had Malik Navors rookie year. I don't think it's going to be a problem of wanting to get him the ball. It'll be a user error if Cam Ward cannot get Cardinal Tate 120, 130 targets this year. And mathematically, like, if he doesn't deliver on those targets, like he's just not going to,
Starting point is 03:42:54 ever deliver probably um and i know wondell's there but like i'm not getting spooked by fucking wandell robinson like that's not a thing that's going to happen in my life so i don't i'm a big fan of carnell tate i've got him a across the board and dynasty a lot um you know it's just kind of classic put receiver taken in the top 10 on a offense that isn't the worst offense and football and a offensive-minded or a offensive coordinator that has had some success in the past with rookie wide receivers. And it's kind of like what's not the like on Carnal Tate besides Titans gross. Yeah, I think the bull case on him is he has kind of a somewhere between a Malik neighbor's
Starting point is 03:43:41 rookie year and a Tet McMillan rookie year. I think the bear case is household are you on Cammore? I'm personally not a fan and I do think there's going to be some Wondell Robinson just snapping at his heels but in the range he's going which is a range that I've already said I'm not super in love with he's at the top for me
Starting point is 03:44:03 well yeah and what's good for the offense as we said earlier is good for the offense and if he has a guy like Robinson giving him these semi layup targets to take some of the attention away from I mean, the whole point of drafting a guy like him is to be able to get a one-on-one opportunities. And that's a pretty easy read when you're a young quarterback is like, if he's one-on-one, throw the ball to him. You know, just, you know, Kim, can still run.
Starting point is 03:44:31 And, you know, it's a year two for a quarterback. So it's the right kind of year to bet on a guy that nobody's believing in yet as a quarterback. And this dude looks ready for the NFL as a receiver in Cardinal Tate. So I would imagine in a what is he in going in your FFPC mocks? He is going. I mean, in real drafts on real. He is end of the sixth round at 60610. That's kind of shockingly low, I would think.
Starting point is 03:45:06 Would you, you know, you guys are doing those drafts way more than I am. What do you think that's that? I think he's a really good bet to be. be a high advance rate player the last like six weeks of the season. I'm not going to freak out if Carnell Tate's like doesn't really have a connection with Cam Ward immediately. I'd love it if he just took the top off right from the jump.
Starting point is 03:45:28 But I think Carnell Tate down the stretch is going to be a dude. Absolute dude. And like the one the one thing is so confusing to me. And when I say confusing, I might actually mean like counterintuitive and stupid as shit. because it seems like they're they're coaching to a test and not coaching like the player. Kim Ward has no interest in throwing little Wondell Robinson routes. Like that is just, unless they're going to use Wondell in that weird ass way that the Giants got away with it last year,
Starting point is 03:46:03 which is like Wondell down the seam and Wondell stretching the field, which was pretty funny to watch and like, I don't know, it was inventive. when the Giants started using him like that, but the rest of his career is like, y'all know what Wanda or at Robinson looks like. Does that seem like a bunch of throws that K.M. Ward wants to make? And so they're going to be designing it. Yeah, they're going to,
Starting point is 03:46:28 I can see them in the film room already just like, highlighting Wanda. I'm like, look, he's open. And Cam Wards is going to be like, I don't give a shit. He's only seven yards down the field. Like, I want to throw it deep, daddy. Like, let me go.
Starting point is 03:46:42 Fitz, and I split a best ball team on FPC. We took him at 609 and he's our wide receiver four. Don't ask us about the running back room, but the wide receiver room is looking nice. Well, I mean, that's what you want from a wide receiver four is a guy that's not going to kill you if he falls flat and catches you 500 yards and four touchdowns. You can survive that easily. And that's why that's wonderful best ball pick. Wonderful best ball pick where you don't have to pick the weeks you're starting. him and you can just like you know sit there and watch profit roll in this is when they get those guys so take your shot yeah i'm i'm a big christian watson guy me and dagle talked about them pretty extensively uh the other night if if you want to check that out everyone out there i don't know if i need
Starting point is 03:47:31 me to uh double click on that again but just seems like the packers are for the first time ever concentrating their offense uh into uh a guy that has proven and has delivered um Christian Watson's the injury thing. I know why people don't want to take him high. The injury thing. I get it. Imagine if he's not injured for one year. And they concentrated their offense and stopped this dumbass wide receiver rotation
Starting point is 03:47:57 where Bo Melton and Savion Williams are getting like legit route shares. And it's just Christian Watson taking the top off. Matthew Golden on the other side. And Jaden Reed and Tucker Kraft bruising you over the middle. Christian Watson is an absolute. my guy this year. And I need somebody on this stream
Starting point is 03:48:21 to explain Parker Washington to me like I'm five fucking years old. Because I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. We now go live to Chris. About how excited you are about him? No, dude.
Starting point is 03:48:41 I don't I couldn't yeah I couldn't read earlier what you're where you're going with that I don't get it at all why is he getting drafted in like I if it's all the first half 60 quarter of the year that he was getting all his numbers from but after that I mean unless you had unless you got rewarded for punt or you know special teams which I do in my league so he was kind of nice yeah I don't really get it either um I mean maybe they're just saying T Law is this, he's ready to spread the ball around like he's Patrick Mahomes. I don't know. I don't understand it either. I disagree. And I'm much closer to what Mike is saying.
Starting point is 03:49:23 But if you're going to force me to make the pro Parker Washington argument, it goes after their by week, his route share jumped tremendously. I think he averaged like 16 points a game. Let me do some real time. No, you're right. No, I got that backwards. It was the last quarter of the season, first quarter of the season. My bad. He was right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, like, second half or yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. He had an absolutely elite threshold at yards per route run, which is a very high signal metric. I think that's probably the, and that plus he grows into this
Starting point is 03:50:02 undeniable force within a very, very, very crowded wide receiver room in Jacksonville. And if you believe that, that's how you can take him where he's knowing. I don't believe that. I might be wrong. I, you know, and I might lose all the money this year, but I don't think it's going to be because of Parker Washington. There's a lot of money that's been set on fire by people taking cherry picking week nine to week 15 of a season and saying X receiver, X running back finished as well, he was running back 13 in that stretch. Congregia fucking lations. Like, wow, incredible stuff. Like that's so good. That sounds like, it sounds like, it sounds exactly like a Jacoby Myers quotable when he was on the Raiders.
Starting point is 03:50:47 Week 12 through 17, Jacobi Myers was, he was, wide receiver 15, guys, you like water receiver 15? Tell you what, Jacobi Myers plays with him now. Brian Thomas still exists, whether we want to acknowledge his existence or not. And I don't think Travis Hunter is done on offense. I definitely think that team wants to run the ball, and Liam Cohen's really good at running the ball. the counter to those arguments
Starting point is 03:51:12 is that Trevor Lawrence and the rest of these guys figured it out with his offensive strategy and like after the buy week and then eventually into the end of the season that I mean they were cooking against bad teams but then they did kind of light up Denver and specifically Parker Washington lit up Denver
Starting point is 03:51:27 I understand some of it now how high how high what's what's what's considered to be psycho range for you for Parker Washington I mean where he's going right now in the last two days on FFPC main events as the 5.2. Fuck off.
Starting point is 03:51:45 I mean, I hear his name fucking every day on Sirius Radio. Yeah. And that price is being driven up. And he is the definition of a helium guy. Yeah, I don't, I don't get it. I feel like I'm taking fucking crazy pills. Like, I will, that is the type of player I will avoid until the end of time. No, I'm with you.
Starting point is 03:52:10 And, you know, maybe I'll be wrong. And, you know, Jacobi Myers doesn't catch any balls. And Brian Thomas Jr. is dead. And Travis Hunter is dead. And Parker Washington can be a wide receiver one and still deliver. And then the running game is not there. And they just have to lean on Parker Washington.
Starting point is 03:52:32 I don't think that's going to happen. everything I've seen just tells me this is nuts and we're all getting a little a little out of our skis who do you what range do you have him amongst like what pocket of guys do you have him at for you uh for me he's probably let's see where would I take him so behind him eightiep right now tate's behind him I'd take tate over um Marvin harrison lives down here Cortland Sutton. Brian Thomas is down here for some reason. This probably needs to be updated.
Starting point is 03:53:07 Matt Cap, Michael Wilson, Alec Bres. I'm just not taking wide receiver in that range. I don't think after Tate. Let me look at all players and I'll tell you exactly who I'm taking. What you're doing that. I'm going to talk about running backs I would rather have in that range. That's right where David Montgomery goes. That's right where Judarian Price goes.
Starting point is 03:53:27 That's right where Bachel Tutin goes. The next running back after a little wide receiver pocket is Jonathan Brooks from Andre Stevenson, Trevian Henderson. Fitz, you stop me when you'd rather have Bartor Washington. Jaylon Warren, Blake Corum. I think that's a reasonable maybe spot. Dowell Pollard, R.J. Harvey, Kenny Gainwell, Jordan Mason. I'm probably, well, not ahead of Mason. God, Mason's. So we talked about him last night.
Starting point is 03:53:54 Yeah, I'm thinking about him around there, but no, I mean, you just named off what, eight of ten. guys that I wouldn't consider not picking and ahead with Parker Washington ahead of him. I'm not doing that. God, Tate, no. Where are you? That's an automatic click if I'm looking at Tate or if a gun's pointing to my head or there's actually people taking Parker Washington ahead of Carnell Tate. I mean, if you expand it further, the guy's going right in front of him in ADP is Tucker
Starting point is 03:54:23 Kraft. The guy's right in front of that is Kyle Pitts. Christian Watson has two picks in front of him. Tate is going 0.4 picks after him. There's a lot of good answers in this range. And none of them are named Parker Washington. It's industry guys that are jacking up the price. They're just talking about them constantly.
Starting point is 03:54:45 I feel like this is a sci-up. I feel like we're getting slapied. Where everyone's talking about Parker, Washington, and no one's actually drafting him. I'm trying to think of some other helium guys. over the past few years, the running back for the Chiefs, we had the rookie.
Starting point is 03:55:02 Clyde. Yeah, that was the perfect helium guy. Yeah, I'm trying to think of a wide receiver that has ever. I mean, Egbuka last year, I was almost like, Jesus Christ, guys, hit the fucking brakes.
Starting point is 03:55:17 But that was just kind of like my own, I don't think he's like super special kind of avoidance, whereas it's a first round wide receiver, good quarterback, good offense. Made a lot of sense. I'm trying to think of a guy that's gotten into a nutty, like, fifth round range for a dude that I just, hell no. Here's a name that tells you how long I've been doing this.
Starting point is 03:55:44 His profile reminds me a lot of Josh Freeman, ex-Kansas State quarterback, who had a nice finish of, gosh, what was that? Like, 2012, 2013, had a very nice finish of the year post by with the bucks and then was just, nothing ever again yeah that's pretty funny I don't even remember that and I a quarterback I think I would have remembered but damn that had to be they get James the next year or did James just leave I don't remember James Bucks was that was electric that was some of the most fun fantasy it's ever have a 40 touchdowns 40 interceptions fuck it oh man that was the end of the
Starting point is 03:56:32 2009 or 10 season that he went on that run. Oh man, I'm old. I'm searching for some risers. So you guys can be talking about I do want to pull up some names just as a reminder of how
Starting point is 03:56:48 how these guys can get out of whack. Yeah, at this point, I mean, when you get down past round eight, nine, you're just kind of flying on your guys. Yeah, Travion. And Travion was a bit of a, he was getting a little too much helium last year. And obviously we saw what he was capable of, but it just, I never, I never thought it was worth it. That would be probably one of the bigger examples from last year.
Starting point is 03:57:14 One of the dudes that's further down, okay, so I'm going to throw out a couple names out here. If you want to talk about them or not, I'll jump in. The dudes that, one of the guys that I'm very much, uh, into taking my medicine on and just dealing with because i think the cost makes too much sense right now stephan digs uh 105.6 overall i think we're taking fucking crazy pills taking chris godwin over him wandell over him um that's a great price for step digs mcky lemon lives down here at 112 jaden reed if there are any believers left then we actually hit a little fun pocket here um this
Starting point is 03:58:01 macky lemon goes 112 jaden reads 115 dejohn stribling is 122 Matthew golden is 123 Casey confescion is 124 I love that little run you like stribling are you buying
Starting point is 03:58:16 I'm I'm not it's more jokes than anything I'm not going to be invested in stribling very much I'm fine at that range like who gives shit helium guy but at that range is still not bad yeah I'll take the 122 ADP
Starting point is 03:58:31 like that's totally fine that doesn't bother me very much you're going to churn 65% of the guys you take after the 10th round so it's whatever let's see if he does something Golden I'm actually kind of he's growing on me yeah I mean I liked him last year and it was a bus
Starting point is 03:58:50 but I mean again year two I still believe in him kind of like I did Jsen a little bit Concepcion does not have to grow on me at all he was already there no I think he's my favorite out of that group. Yeah, I woke up today. I'm like, okay, and now I'm in. Somebody got to catch them passes, and I know what he did in college.
Starting point is 03:59:08 He was a freak show when he got the ball in his hands. Yeah. Cleveland Brown special. Can he get him, can he get him the ball? And this is a great range of, if you hit the right, the right wide receiver through here, I think it really alters your team. Who pull up some guys, Chuck,
Starting point is 03:59:28 that you want to feature in here. It's some of the dudes very mentioned. That's totally fine. I'm just scrolling through Yahoo ADP at this point. So I think names that deserve a mention are Alec Pierce, who is heard. I got a huge contract. He just got cleared today. Yes, got clear.
Starting point is 03:59:47 Which a reason to move them up several spots on your list. I think Jordan Tyson is an elite pick. You don't have to get him here. but if you have an IR spot in your redraft league, you take him whenever he's rising up to the top of, you know, whatever your draft applet is, and then you just put him in your IR spot. And if he does nothing all year, great.
Starting point is 04:00:12 If he does something, he's probably going to be an elite producer. But don't grab him over. I mean, we started this conversation with Stefan Diggs. I think the argument for him is, you know, he produced at an elite level on a per route. basis on a per target basis last year. He's still shown he's got it. He is 32.
Starting point is 04:00:31 He's the nominal second option in that passing game. I'm warming to him, but he's not a profile that I ever end up taking. He was coming off a torn ACL last year going on to an offense nobody really believed in. And he had the pink cocaine incident, whatever that, whatever the hell that was about. Molly. People say it's Molly. I don't know. Yeah, the Diggs thing, I wanted him to be dead last year.
Starting point is 04:01:05 And he just was not. He refused to be dead. And now he's fantasy zombie material. And with a pretty good quarterback on an offense where they need that kind of thing, they need a chain mover as a pass catcher. Because F1 does some fun things, but it is nothing, it's not the same shit that Diggs does. And no one's really there to do that.
Starting point is 04:01:25 I just think it's a really good investment. Like he is say whatever you want about step digs. Like maybe he didn't live up to the, you know, the early career totals and shit like that with the Vikings and over time. But he is a target earner everywhere he goes from minute one. He is a quarterback's best friend. And I think, you know, they've got the scrap for every first. down they get. I don't think that offense is going to be super electric unless
Starting point is 04:01:57 Jayden Daniels is putting his body on the line and in playing just absolute nuclear football. And I think Steph Diggs is going to be the easiest thing that they have in that offense to move the chains. Yeah, shitty offensive line. And that's been, we've seen it multiple weeks now. So it kind of just makes you think they're going to be throwing even more so with a scrambling quarterback running for his life. Stefan Diggs, another flag player by Christopher Harris, by the way. You kind of pull that out of the hat. I'm like, interesting. But like we, again, I don't, I'm I'm kind of shocked he's still a zombie after last year, after what he pulled off. And I'm, I was even more surprised that he's not still in New England.
Starting point is 04:02:33 Yeah. I mean, I think I'd be pretty afraid of that offense if it digs in AJ Brown. Like, I know it's. Yeah. These are, geezer territory with walkers out there. But, uh, yeah, I'd be like, oh, fuck. Oh, no. Two old dudes, but they, they haven't shown any fall off yet.
Starting point is 04:02:53 Yeah. Shockingly. Anybody else you wanted to pull up, Chuck? Yeah, I think there's two names that kind of bracket this range that we have to talk about, which is appropriate because they're on the same team. And that's Mike Evans and Deshawns dribbling. Is Mike Evans dust or is he, you know, is he, um, Wyatt Earp and Tombstone walking out there and twirling the gun, you know,
Starting point is 04:03:19 right before he succumbs to tuberculosis? And then how much do you believe in the preseason performance? of Deshawns dribbling. I'm in on Mike Evans. 33. That's not your MO. It's really not. No, but I mean, I think
Starting point is 04:03:43 Mike Evans on a Shanahan offense, like, are you fucking kidding me? Like, they're going to... If Kittles slow to come back, if everyone's healthy, then, okay. then you can just like Mike Evans is kind of a luxury pick or for that for that offense.
Starting point is 04:04:07 But the second someone starts missing, you need to lean on Mike Evans. And maybe it's Mike Evans that starts missing time because, I mean, he's old and there's a, obviously a giant cancerous substation that lives in their backyard that injures all their players. But, well, they got young, they have a much younger receiver
Starting point is 04:04:26 and Debo Samuel that they acquired. So it'll be fine. Yeah, Lord, Lord take D. They signed Debo to sacrifice his, his bones and his body. That's what they hadn't done it before. Yeah, which is kind of funny because I think that was the best outcome for Debo, but still like just, I can't get fired up in any way. And then George Kittle.
Starting point is 04:04:48 Do we need to stack together for you to feel confident about the foundation in San Francisco? Yeah. Yeah, I just never will. Like, it's all just like, and yeah, Mike Evans is the most stable one right now. Like, out of, outside of McCaffrey, who has missed time, but I think it's like half contract shit. How old is McCaffrey? He's about be 30, I believe.
Starting point is 04:05:14 Okay. And George Kittle, though, 32. Yeah. Wait, hold on. DeShahn stripling, wasn't the most impressive, if you, I don't know, he wasn't like blowing me away. Watch this tape. He's really good at. you know one-on-one balls um i don't i don't really know what i'm looking at here with
Starting point is 04:05:32 with this offense and what i'll tell you exactly what you're looking at um and i realize this other day whenever they said chris bell might be back for week one with the dolphins the 49ers wanted to take a yak receiver they probably if chris bell doesn't shred his knee i would Garin fucking T.U. Chris Bell is the guy they took at 33 overall. He shreds his knee. They obviously didn't like the medicals or whatever or didn't want to fuck with that. Needed the guy that's going to be ready right now.
Starting point is 04:06:12 They wanted a yak wide receiver. Stribling 6-2. He's got a bit of a gun show going on, like all the Ole Miss wide receivers. And they wanted a yak guy and they leaned into it and said, fuck it i know i've whiffed on every single first run right wide receiver i've ever taken but this one's going to be different and they were bound and determined to unlock the offense with another big body yak guy i thought that was going to do it and i think they just retrofitted a pick onto de jean stribling it was not not really a top 50 player um on anybody's list they were just like hey
Starting point is 04:06:56 he exists he's fine there was nothing impressive about jean strribling he was not really a top 50 player um on anybody's list they were just like hey he exists he's fine there was nothing impressive about Dejohn's dribbling um so i mean he looks fun looked cool as hell playing against second string randos unlike you know future uh
Starting point is 04:07:10 all state agents in the secondary but and i'm not here to shit on the greatest offensive tackle to ever play football but he's also the oldest offensive lineman i believe in the NFL is Trent Williams
Starting point is 04:07:25 Trent, yeah. You never heard of Joe Thomas? They don't have Joe Thomas where you from? Hey, man. I know what I know. Where do you go to college? I don't know where Joe Thomas went to college. Somebody tell me.
Starting point is 04:07:46 I know what you're asking. In Wisconsin. Oh, that's right. Rock Purdy, didn't he come off an injury last year as well? He's like always coming off an injury. I mean, I'm starting to. look at this schedule, which is brutal for them.
Starting point is 04:08:03 Could they fall off a cliff? It's very unstable. I love sharing, but this is, I mean, taking a deep dive on this, it's kind of weird. It's very unstable. They could all age out on offense at the same exact time.
Starting point is 04:08:21 I guess the hope is that the defense is going to be a lot better. They drafted a million kids last year. You assume we're going to be their second year. Bosa's back. Fred Warner's back. I think the defense will be fine. And then the offense, you know, you just think
Starting point is 04:08:35 Kyle Shanahan, if he's, you know, not getting an ATV wrecks or whatever, can coach the living shit out of some efficient offense. Even with Brock Purdy, who is a... The most overpaid quarterback in the NFL? Lifetime outlier of a touchdown rate.
Starting point is 04:08:55 Like, he's just... He's going to end his career with like a significantly crazier touchdown percentage than like DAC. And some of the dudes they're going to threaten for MVP. You're like, fucking Brock Purdy. And yeah. I don't think I'm touching a miniser this year. I think I would just kind of pass on. Probably smart.
Starting point is 04:09:16 Probably smart. When you talk about the whole thing, like there's, I don't know, 20% of outcomes this year where that whole offense just walks arm and arm into the, ocean yeah yeah just to collect collective circle murder suicide just the second kiddle gets banged up after coming back too early and then mcalfrey something happened to his leg i don't know and then by kevins is just old just dies from old it's pretty unstable moving past the Niners, do we have any late round sleeper
Starting point is 04:09:59 you know, like I'm going to hit you over the head with this guy in round 15 that boomer bus guy? I can start naming off some names some of which I'm interested in, some of which I'm not. Looking at, again, I'm looking at FPC ADP. Then it goes Josh Downs, Michael Wilson,
Starting point is 04:10:18 Cortland Sutton, Michael Pittman, Casey Concepcion, Jaden Reed, Quentin Johnson, Wondell Robinson, and then it's Mackaylemon, and that's kind of when I want to be done a receiver. Yeah, I mean, once you get past that and you're, you know, dart throwing
Starting point is 04:10:40 round 15, 16 on, it's the rookies. Jacoby Lane. Jacoby Lane, Cyrus Allen, Omar Cooper, who people forget how high he was drafted in the NFL. draft and how good he was. It's the rookies. And then you can talk me into 80 Mitchell, maybe being okay, Jeremy Bernard.
Starting point is 04:11:04 And one dude I will call out in that range who I think is going to be a sneaky, like okay wide receiver because he's done it before on, well, I don't know if it's a worst situation or not. Kishon Boutte landing in Houston kind of intrigues me a little bit. Yeah, I mean, he's a wide receiver. steps in as a wide receiver probably wide receiver two um yeah he's a guy you have to pay attention to uh i mean he's in they plucked him you know i could see week six something happens in nico high ankle sprain you're going in week seven kishon bute is there wide receiver one
Starting point is 04:11:46 projected for 14 and a half points like that's a future we're going to live in boys Yeah. A lot of people love, it's kind of weird. I don't see, I feel like everything looks terrible except for the offensive line behind Baker this year, but also looking at Vuka's injury. Jaila McMillan is an easy click for me at the end or every time I do a mock draft. I'm clicking on his name because he had to step in there a couple times last year. I only had one really big game, but he's capable of, I mean, Baker can really can, he can take a wide. receiver four if he's got to and you can turn him into a you know wide receiver one for a given week and he's he kind of fits that profile I think for that first half of the season you might need a guy like that so of I think I remember Sterling Shepard book an ear I remember yeah year he just signed with who did he sign with just the other day is you know like his ninth
Starting point is 04:12:48 team oh he did hang on I'm I'm going to look this up I think the biggest thing against Jaylen McMillan for me. And again, I'm a fan is, I think the best way to play that kind of profile, that kind of chaperone profile while you're waiting on younger receivers in this range to emerge is Chris Godwin. Is he in that range? He's going a lot higher than that. Is he not? A little bit, a little bit.
Starting point is 04:13:14 Not a ton. Sterling Shepard is a Houston Texan currently. Okay. Yeah. Speaking of Texas. Who knows how long that's going to last? it might not even last till this podcast airs. 7.4 quarters.
Starting point is 04:13:31 I mean, on Fantasy Pro's ADP, the difference between Godwin and McMillan is like 100 picks. Oh, yeah. So I'm not saying that Godwin and McMillan are close in ADP. This is just like, we're moving into a range where I'm only looking at solid, like, draft profile upside bets, which is young guys who with with draft capital who are like plus profiles and the problem this
Starting point is 04:13:59 year is way too many of those guys are browns and jets yeah they took too many wide receivers on both cyrus allen i mean he's like 243 on this one um k kansas city guy he's a dart throw and with the lack of quality pass catchers after i went off on rishi right earlier you might be something that they might try to utilize in the short passing game because he's got that he's he's got one of those little short like freakishly you know he's that sort of maybe they're trying to find a Tyree kill kind of guy um when i just think of short fast explosive he kind of fits that profile in that offense i know some people are really excited about pat bryant i'm not really there with it i think it's classic like training
Starting point is 04:14:53 camp verbal tip from Sean Payton because he really needs somebody to be a sacrificial ex and he's just I just love Pat Bryant man I just love how he runs 20 yards down the field and never gets any balls no one ever throws anything to him but people are really fired up about Pat Bryant I mean the other two rookies down here that I
Starting point is 04:15:22 feel like I'm going to have a kind of crazy amount of is Ted Hurst and Chris Bell. Chris Bell looks like you might be ready week one. And if you can tell me a better wide receiver on the dolphins than Chris Bell, I'll give you $5 out of my pocket. Well, that's kind of what you're going for, right? You're just, if you're going to, you might as well throw one of those guys out there at the end of a draft. And if he hits, you're probably looking at 1,000 plus yards and 7 or 8 touchdowns. Caleb Douglas.
Starting point is 04:15:54 You like to go better. Did Bell get hurt? He tore his knee up a week like eight or nine of the college football season last year. I thought I thought I just saw that he got hurt again. No, he's like, he's like getting cleared.
Starting point is 04:16:10 Like they've been talking about him being hopefully ready for week one unless he had a setback today. I don't. Just cleared. I think if you're, You're sifting through this garbage down here and you're looking for just some reasonably high floors, which is really more of a best ball move than a redraft move. I think Romeo Dobbs is going to be running in all the two receiver sets.
Starting point is 04:16:36 You know, he's probably going to end up in the four to seven point range every week. Ditto Khalil Shakir, maybe with a little more upside. I mean, Trey Tucker is probably still going to be the wide receiver one in Vegas. so if you're dumpster diving for just some floor, I think those are some names you can consider. If you don't believe in bed and taking rookies coming off at Torn ACL and you don't want to go with Chris Bell, who is your next Mike or Chuck?
Starting point is 04:17:08 Who are you banking on? Is it Malik Washington? Is it Douglas? Who do you think? Oh, you mean for the dolphins? I don't fuck with either of those dudes. I think I'm a Dulcich guy. I think I'm...
Starting point is 04:17:20 Like Dulcich might lead them in targets. Like if Chris Bell's not healthy. Interesting. Interesting theory. Like he's the target earning tight-in that like kind of only does that. It's not a good blocker. I got a feeling we're going to be talking about him pretty soon. Nice. Ted Hurst is out here too.
Starting point is 04:17:41 And like it's literally just all the rookies in this range. Tampa Bay, Ted Hurst. As we mentioned what I was just going off on J-Ly McMillan, if you don't get him and you still want a piece of that passing game and you want to I mean that's he's free basically Ted Hurst yeah yeah unfortunately these are just guys that I am never going to get because the way that I like to draft and redraft in home leagues is I like my receivers early you know this year as we talked about last night is going to challenge that but my bench is going to be predominantly backup running backs who are one injury away from
Starting point is 04:18:17 a starter's projected workload. And that's where these guys go. And so this is just not the party for me. I'm going to throw one parting shot, Mike. Because going as the number 256 player of all, in his 20s, receiver, San Francisco 49ers Christian Kirk is 29. Oh.
Starting point is 04:18:41 Oh. What are we doing? Christian Kirk, Kaff, not practicing today. that's the last news report. That was 27 days ago. Just, we don't, we don't need,
Starting point is 04:18:53 we don't need updates on Christian Kirk. One more toothpick. Hey, you know, if you glue them all together, it's going to be a solid foundation. Yeah. Go get them,
Starting point is 04:19:03 Shannie. Is there another wide receiver? Is there the oldest shit wide receiver that's still out there? Whereas Diggs the last one. I feel like there was another dude that was waiting. How are you talking about all? Dibah Zippert.
Starting point is 04:19:23 Cooper Cup still in the league. Yeah, yep. He's signed somewhere, right? He's Seattle still. Yeah, he's back in Seattle. Yeah. I guess you're not watching Hardin. I am. I am.
Starting point is 04:19:34 I watched the first one or two on a plane. Well, he, when he said, well, real quick moment, he's, they basically. Tyree Kill. Tyree Kill. I'm sorry. Tyree Kill. He's still alive? He's playing. He's alive.
Starting point is 04:19:48 He's not fully recovered. I didn't see a team next to him. I just saw that, but I'm like, oh. That's what I'm saying, like the Niners are going to sign Tyree. kill whenever they cut Christian Kurt. Perfect. One of the things on, they showed before Bobo,
Starting point is 04:20:03 you know, got hurt for the year, they showed they basically went over to a cup and they're like, you're not going to play, you're not going to practice today because we're just going to keep, we're going to be conservative and not play. So they throw Bobo out there and he tears his fucking ACL. That's how the sausage is made in the NFL.
Starting point is 04:20:18 It was really interesting seeing that. Anyway. Yeah, I could definitely see the Niners, uh, Adon Tyree Kill or Curtis Samuel or John Dray Hopkins just seems like their flavor of guy. Just over 30 brings nothing. Real quick, we didn't talk about the Chargers passing game and I think we probably should before we get out of here.
Starting point is 04:20:39 Oh, okay. Because just seeing Quentin Johnson, I was like, we didn't even talk about. Glad that much. Yeah. What do you guys think about either one of those guys? Are you waiting on Johnston as a high upside play because he's going to. going like, I don't know, 20-ish picks later than Vlad? I'll probably not own any QJ this year.
Starting point is 04:21:04 That might be a mistake, but I just haven't. They really sunk my teeth into it. Let me see what range he's at. 109, that's actually not that bad. Another look at it in front of Downs and Jordan Addison and Jacoby Myers range. I'd be okay with QJ. I just, I don't know.
Starting point is 04:21:30 I'm really in a lad, so I don't want to do both. I think that's pretty redundant. Yeah, it just didn't fire me up, really. Yeah, I think removing Keenan Allen from that room, who's now in Indianapolis, which is actually probably the old guy that we should have talked about a little bit. I think everyone's kind of gravitating, just assigning those targets to Lad. I think that's probably directionally correct. Ladd is going in a range where I get a little queasy.
Starting point is 04:22:03 I've struggled all offseason long with Chargers, pass catchers. And I mean, spoiler alert for the quarterback show, the way that I'm choosing to play it is just Justin Herbert. I mean, yeah, it's going to balance out, right? QJ kind of popped last year. Lad went down. And I would imagine that that's just going to sort of either stabilize or it's going to go back the other way with McDaniel. because he's going to try to spread the ball around to everybody, especially tight ends,
Starting point is 04:22:33 but you're going to see just those two receivers on the field quite a bit, I would imagine. Yeah, they're another 12 personnel team. And that's all I got for these. Yeah, no, I think we hit a ton of names. I think it's super helpful, water receiver discussion. Yeah, I don't mean, I think we talked about literally every dude I'm interested in. There's a couple that, you know, Pierce, Denzel Boston, some dudes like that that I'm like,
Starting point is 04:23:05 we'll end up on a couple of my teams. But, yeah, I think you've got a pretty good breakdown on the wide receiver group. So two business hours on wide receivers. That's the way we like it. That's the way we like it. Oh, dear. All right. All right.
Starting point is 04:23:20 Let's start with the onesie positions. I don't know if those will take very long. So let's say tight end is next. How about that? The action is the. juice. I'm Mike. That is Fitz. That is Chuck. Hopefully you've checked out the wide receiver preview, the running back preview, the season preview of how to draft structurally advantageous for your builds this year on that episode. And now we're to the
Starting point is 04:23:54 onesie positions, the onesies in which most leagues you start one of them, unless you're a super flex scenario or anything like that. Or if, you know, it's a tight-in premium and you can you can sneak a second tight end in there. Tight end is more strategy-based, I'd say, than quarterback. More thought needs to be put into it. If it's a tight-in premium, there is some value to me. And that's what FFPC made of it is fits. I know you don't play in that, but it's 1.5 points per reception for tied ends.
Starting point is 04:24:31 So those guys start creeping up the board pretty quickly. And to me, there's so few elites, true difference makers at that position. And they're exactly the guys you think from last year. I mean, it's Trem McBride. It's Brock Bowers been healthy. It's Colston Lublin for the last four to six weeks of the year. But to me, it's almost like maybe in a baseball league where there's not many guys that are going to throw them any innings. It's going to be strikeouts.
Starting point is 04:25:03 And if you own two of them, you can. keep them away from the rest of the league too uh there's a little bit of strategical edge to me of having two elite tight ends um on an ffpc main event team we're on a tight end premium uh kind of league so chuck and i own several teams throughout the year and we are absolutely elite tight-in guys we're looking that's the first conversation i think we have each year is cool where we get our tight ends how early can we get it can't stretch to the third? Is that realistic?
Starting point is 04:25:39 Doing a bank on Harold Fanon in the ninth and tenth? This year, that didn't really present itself. It's kind of the same exact group of dudes that it has been. You know, I'll talk about Kenyon Sadieke in a little bit, but no one's entering the conversation necessarily from outside that you can kind of go, oh maybe this guy's a little bit different um so i guess uh chuck let's start with you on overall tight-in strategy uh i know ffpc's on our mind a lot but just uh maybe more generalized for for the people that are about to do their home drafts as well yeah you don't have to play in a
Starting point is 04:26:23 premium format to understand the edge that having an an elite tight end that's going to score like a wide receiver 1.5 in a non-premium format gives you. One of the things that I mentioned in the overview pod is create an edge. However, you're going to do that. One of the most reliable ways to sharpen that edge that you're going to attack people with is at tight end. And there's only a couple names up top that are going to give you that edge. Yeah, Trey McBride, obviously coming off of a historic season. I don't know if that was the best tight-in season ever. I'll do some type in here in a second whenever I kick it to Fitz, but he's not even guaranteed to be tied in and be taking his tight-in-one coming off that season.
Starting point is 04:27:14 I feel like if Tony Gonzalez did this or something, it'd just be like, yeah, that's tight-in-one, whatever. Travis Kelsey did this. It'd be like, all right, whatever. But there is so much, you know, enthusiasm behind Brock Bowers as well, especially with new office coordinator and assuming a new quarterback and, you know, all the unlockables on Brock Bowers. But, you know, how are you what's your tight-in strategy fits just generalizing are you an elite guy are you finding are you finding the guy in the tight-in dead zone that's the winner i'm constantly keeping an eye on that position more than i ever have after every single draft pick this year maybe not round one but if you're looking at trade mcbride i mean is what points per game last year would have fallen in
Starting point is 04:27:59 between Devante Adams and Drake London. That's ridiculous. And, of course, if you do points per game, you can factor in Tucker Kraft there, but I'm not going to, I would more look at like George Kittle, where he's almost, it's like more than one and a half points per game
Starting point is 04:28:15 on a per game basis and for the year. And this is just standard leagues. Let's see, my bride had 190 points last year. Kittle had 105. It's a big difference, man. And you started looking at the numbers. like these receivers, you know, that, I mean, that's a massive gap that you're getting at the elite tight-in positions.
Starting point is 04:28:39 Now, I know a lot of people are taking Bowers at one and it's a coin flip for me this year. I do think, I do think McBride is a quarterback that can get him the ball plenty. And McBride has even complained that Kyler was sometimes not actually able to see him when throwing over the line. I mean, even I will have a shot to throw at Kyle Murray because every single fantasy pun it has got something to say about him, but there's just another one. And I'm seeing it everywhere. Basically, people are falling in love with Colston Loveland over at Tyler Warren. And I did not feel that way at all during almost the entire season last year.
Starting point is 04:29:16 I know it kind of flipped towards the end when Colston was starting to get a lot of these looks and people were starting to see the Sam LaPorte of sort of relationship in Ben Johnson's offense. But pretty early, man, I'm looking at all those guys. But Warren and Loveland, where did you fall with, you know, those top four? Like, do you see, are you McBride guys, are you Bowers guys? And then are you Warren or are you Lovelin guys? I think right now, if I'm in a, if I'm in a standard from into like a PPR, home league or whatever, I've taken McBride over Bowers a couple times. And I don't have a problem with that. I've meant tight in premium. And it depends on where the 80, you know, Bowers is going higher. They're demanding that if you want Bowers, you have to
Starting point is 04:30:10 take Bowers fifth or sixth. Tomorrow night, we have a decision to make on, do we take Bowers fifth or six or fifth, because we're the fifth pick. So if you've made events a little bit different. the ADP is a little bit different. I'm fine with taking Bowers' fifth in FFPC, but in some of the home leagues I've taken Trey McBride just because I did the entire, I did all the drugs on the first night of Brock Bowers last year. And it, not that, you know, I did it wrong.
Starting point is 04:30:46 It's just, I had all Brock Bowers. And it wasn't a great experience last year. So I'm just like smartly, divving my bets up a little bit amongst the two because I really think there is a being able to hit tight end and then go like beat up for a while knowing that I can find the wide receivers and the running backs later on that I'll be really comfortable with while people are reaching down there for your fucking whatever T.J. Hawkinson bullshit or something. I did all the Bowers last year and it kind of ruined a lot of my teams and not anything that's his fault. It's just getting your knee demolished
Starting point is 04:31:35 that early in this season was a really bad experience. I'm spreading some of my bets. I'm still doing the same shit. I'm just spreading my bets a little bit because I am going to have so many elite tight ends of those two. Yeah, I think Bowers is the clear one. between him and McBride, I understand how it finished last year.
Starting point is 04:31:55 I think a lot of that is an injury story for Bowers, and a lot of that is the way that the Cardinals went bad is they went bad in a really fun way. And they had the most pass attempts in the league by a pretty wide margin. Fitz, do you know that Trey McBride ran 120 more routes than any other tight end last year? Seems like that never keeps going. That rules. I'm going to hear it.
Starting point is 04:32:24 That's unbelievable. And I just am expecting some regression there. So it's, it's McBride and Bowers up top. And here's an edge for you. On ESPN, McBride has a higher, or I guess a lower ADP than Brock Bowers.
Starting point is 04:32:38 And if you're drafting on ESPN, as soon as you see someone take Trey McBride, that's your cue to take Brock Bowers. Fade the ESPN guys. And then how do you guys, feel with Warren and Loveland. And again, I'm struggling with it. I still have Warren ahead, just kind of remembering how I felt last year watching that offense. And we talked about it in the opening pod that I'm a little nervous about how a lot of these injuries are piling up. But it was
Starting point is 04:33:04 nice to see Alec Pierce come back. It makes me feel a lot better about the way things could shake out there just overnight. I'm like, oh, that's the best news they could have gotten. He's probably going to play week one. And there, I mean, all these mouths to feed, like, I feel. I feel like, I feel like Warren is there's three guys right on on Indy but I feel like the Bears there's plenty of options for Caleb including running the football
Starting point is 04:33:31 just if I'm just trying to like really nitpick here I Warren just yeah you gotta start you gotta start asking yourself like which passing game is going to put up bigger numbers which which who's going to create the bigger pie right the explosive nature of what like
Starting point is 04:33:50 Colston Loveland showed us last year is pretty tantalizing. Tyler Warren's one of my guys forever and always. I think he's such a unique player that he's just going to be clobber you over the head with consistent points. They kind of the opposite George Kittle, you know what I mean? Like Tyler Warren might never exit a game with fewer than six targets, but I don't know if he's ever going to, you know, just take the top off and go 12 catches for three touchdowns or something like that. Just really consistent, steady-eddie kind of tied-in, but also like an extremely talented athlete and one of the most unique tight-ins that's in the league on an okay offense.
Starting point is 04:34:39 You know, they might be fine now that Alec Pierce is back, an offense that was legendarily good in EPA last year. you don't bet on that again. You don't even bet for them to be top five. So what does that mean? Fewer first downs, fewer catches, fewer drives, fewer touchdowns. And whenever you do start, I guess, shrinking the amount of plays, the amount of drives, the amount of opportunities for Tyler Warren. I think it'll just be like a really subtle kind of being edged out by Colston Loveland.
Starting point is 04:35:15 And maybe even Tucker Kraft. Like, I don't know. I don't know if Tucker Kraft finishes above Tyler Warren, but Tyler Warren's going to be an awesome pick. If you can get him at the right price, I think if you're paying top dollar front of ADP on Tyler Warren, you're just going to be fine with it. You're just going to look back and go, oh, okay, yeah,
Starting point is 04:35:36 that's pretty good. I'll have a couple. There'll be a Jason Wittenass season. Just really good, just awesome player. But Colston Lovelland has 30.1. weeks in his bag. And whenever you're looking for your people that draft tight ed high are looking for some kind of just outsized edge somewhere. And Colson Lovelin scratch that it stretches that itch for him. So I think he's always going to go higher until something changes in the formula.
Starting point is 04:36:06 Yeah, Fitz, I started this offseason kind of like how you set it up. Like, you know, there's the two up top and then there's this next tier that are really close between Loveland Warren. And, And I was honestly really swayed by the argument that Daigle made on his pod with Machine a couple nights ago. And I think there's silent killer scenarios in play with Warren that just are less likely with Loveland. And so he's kind of separated for me. I still love Tyler Warren. It could absolutely, you know, be a separator. And ADP has it the same way.
Starting point is 04:36:44 After those two guys, there's a round before anybody is reaching for a tight end again. And I think the way that I'm going to choose to play it this year is, if I don't have a tight end already, whenever I see Warren go off, then my next pick is going to be Tucker Kraft. Yeah, I was a Loveland guy coming out last year and fully understood how great Warren was. I just thought Loveland was more of a all-around perfect tight-in. And Warren was the athletic freak. I just didn't think that offense was going to be. producing much so I was like it got to be leveling
Starting point is 04:37:16 they both ended up right yeah there was just different times of the year different yeah I had I was jealous the whole time watching Tyler Warren in this first beginning of the year and then Daniel Jones got hurt and so it is his production I'd say he was the top 12 tied in eight of the first 12 weeks
Starting point is 04:37:36 and once Jones got hurt his highest finish and those last five weeks his highest finish was tied in 21 yeah I mean it was Riley Leonard and then Philip Rivers, so it's like, you know, I guess I get it. But I mean, Loveland didn't really do anything the first eight weeks, right? Eight to ten weeks. So I was like victory lapping my Tyler Warren flag plant last year of like,
Starting point is 04:37:58 y'all really thought Loveland was going to be better? And then all of a sudden, the Bears offense stops running it 50 times a game and decides to open it up and let Caleb do his thing. And God damn. Like some of those. plays that Loveland was making up the sideline and in the end zone. And every time they needed a chunk play, I was like, okay, if you can bottle that up in any kind of way, which I'm not certain they can. This is a big, this is a very low floor possibility that could happen with Colston Loveland. Like I, I'm admitting a lot of risk can happen with Colston Loveland. But you just don't
Starting point is 04:38:42 get games out of tight ends where you can drop a 25 burger or 30 burger unless your name's George Kittl. And you're talking at the, you know, a playoff run that he's doing this with the chips on the most, yeah. And now DJ Moore's gone. So I think you're probably calling it right there to lean on Loveland. And I'm finally on the guy that I actually believed in in the first place that maybe, you know, the league could have potentially figured out Warren because all they wanted, they wanted to get him in the, you know,
Starting point is 04:39:12 involved when a DJ got hurt. And yes, their offense was a complete surprise last year, but you feel like just the bears are just constantly ascending and everybody's ADP kind of represents that. And he's the Sam Lipporta of the Ben Johnson. Rins to repeat. And speaking of,
Starting point is 04:39:34 I think I had him five, but his injury situation just keeps to be. Lipporta? Yeah, keeps popping up. I think five is where the conversation starts this year. Yeah, I mean, it's that group right there. I think I mentioned this on the either season preview or running back preview of like, don't be the guy that starts the run.
Starting point is 04:39:57 Don't be the guy that takes the guy at the top of your tier. And this is definitely a tier of Fanon, Pitts, Kraft, Leporta, right in this little chunk. And depending on where you want to put Kittle, but Kittles ADP is significantly later. I'm probably the Tucker Kraft guy, and that probably sits right with my drafting sensibilities. He's probably going third out of that group. Fanon is technically highest in ADP, Pitts, then Kraft, then Leporta, still, even with his injury. So of that group, who's your flavor when push comes to show fits? It was Leporta, but these injuries are, his injury shit is just kind of weird.
Starting point is 04:40:42 year like he's got a hip and he ended the last missed half the season last year if I were close to it last year. Fannin I just I couldn't stop watching his tape. I mean like he I didn't really understand how great he was and how easily those some of those
Starting point is 04:40:58 targets came and then when he got the ball on his hands I swear to God he reminded of Walter Bucking Payton like the way that he finishes runs and he twists in and twists in and out of tackles like a bowling ball I have blown away by the by the ease of what he was doing with the football.
Starting point is 04:41:14 And I don't know if he can block a lick because obviously they're not showing that on this highlight tape, but anybody that's getting that kind of production with the ball in his hands is tied in, there's zero chance they're just going to, he's going to be taken out, you know, by a defensive coordinator. It's impossible. They're going to force feed him the ball. And I think he's going to get layup targets. And they're essentially, he's kind of like a running back, you know.
Starting point is 04:41:39 And I'm, I got him five. and then it's uh you know do i put laporte in there and then take joan johnson but i think those are probably the next three that i'm looking at what do you think chuck yeah i've got craft in a tier of his own um no surprise as see my previous email but um i've got craft as a tier in his own just because i think the way that it seems that green bay is trending this year with the Josh Jacobs, both age and the tread on the tires and the legal risk. I think they're going to play a lot of 11 personnel. I think they want Tucker Kraft to be the yak guy in the middle with a Jaden Reed as a secondary
Starting point is 04:42:24 option. And then Christian Watson and Matthew Golden taking the top off on different sides of the field. I'm also really into Jordan Love this year. And so that's how I'm seeing that. I'm a huge Harold fanning guy. I think I had him in a lot of places last year. I think he's getting a quarterback downgrade. I like the guys that the Browns drafted.
Starting point is 04:42:46 And so I think he's getting a smaller slice of a shittier pie this year. Yeah, it's a big-time bummer. The Browns don't have a single quarterback that can really bring that offense to life. Because I think they've got the beginning of something like pretty interesting. with Concepciona Boston and Fanon and even Judkins and Dylan Sampson. Like that's got the right kind of guy stirring the pot, maybe a Joe Flacco type, and we can make things work at least for a couple games and keep things fun. But it looks like they're determined to play the shudius offensive football
Starting point is 04:43:29 that anyone has ever seen and drive Todd Monkin absolutely crazy. A couple names I'm going to pull up here. You all think everyone probably knows how I feel about George Kittle. I'll have him on a couple teams just because he's my guy. But names that interest me, and I'm, if it's not Kittle, I'm waiting a while on down here. Don Kincaid, you can intrigue me on Dalton Kincaid. um juan johnson and then i don't know what kenyon sadik did to everybody but i still really really like keny and sadik dynasty wise and for if you're playing in a tight-in premium or anything of the like
Starting point is 04:44:22 like a tight-in three uh just lottery ticket because that athletic profile does not exist at this position hardly ever in when they do i think i looked it up dudes that had his profile at the combine um and it was broad jump is like the key measurement for tight ends um and i think he had a 10 it was over 10 foot i think it just started at 10 foot and of the tight ends that had ever hit 10 foot broad at the combine i think nine of nine of the 10 that had ever done it had made a pro bowl and i was like god damn that's a fucking signal um and i i get i get the issues like sedique feels like harold fanning last year where people are just like oh he's duck-footed and
Starting point is 04:45:20 put in a fucking stupid school and can't lock very little production yeah yeah fan fanan's opposite in that he did have all the production, but people were still like, oh, it looks weird. Well, he also played a smaller college too. Right, played it at Bowling Green. Like you put Harold Kinney and Sadica Bowling Green, you might have 3,000 yards or something. And it's Oregon, whatever, dude.
Starting point is 04:45:45 There's Ferguson had no production at Oregon. And people are, you know, nutting their huggies over Terrence Ferguson this year. So, I don't know, those are my favorite dudes down here. I'll, I'll teeta for you, Fitz, to pull some guys up that you're excited about? You know, I'm not going to, I talked about a little bit about Joan Johnson, how he's in that tier. I wanted to mention one thing about Tucker Crafts. I had him last year, and I loved him, and I was, you know, I was doing some pretty happy dances in the middle of the year,
Starting point is 04:46:18 but I just can't draft a guy that injured his ACL that late, and it doesn't look very, doesn't sound very confident the way he's talking about coming back. And it's just a, it's just a, do not draft. It's got nothing to do with his ability. I just, he's not some guy I'm calling out unless it's a massive value late. But I understand it, the appeal. I know there's dudes mouths being fed in Dallas, but I still like touchdowns. And I'm fine calling Jake Ferguson out. You know, I mean, after John Johnson, you're, you're starting to have a lot of question marks for sure.
Starting point is 04:46:56 Kelsey, okay. I mean, it's kind of free money right there. I mean, you kind of know what you're getting right there. He has to be in everybody's top 12. I would assume that he's both your top 12s, right? Yeah. I do like the appeal of Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 04:47:12 I'm just kind of going down the names of I have an order. And I know it's weird to say that. Never have said that. But I, Sifansky and tight ends, it's always been a thing. I think he's never finished lower than nine in targeting.
Starting point is 04:47:26 tight ends? Maybe it's tight-in catches. I'm Kyle Pitts positive. You don't got to apologize for anything to me. I'm a big fan. I never owned him coming out of the gate because I was still living by the old day rules of don't take a rookie tight end that high ever. And so I never had any exposure to him really early on. So I
Starting point is 04:47:50 didn't get burned by him. And so I don't have the scar tissue that like half the league you're going to play with has, Like, I'll just acquire Kyle Pitts and just be happy about it and go, yeah, he'll finish the seat. He had a goddamn tear to end last season. Yeah, he went nuts. You want people leagues that if you're a psycho enough to be starting him, you won your league. But here's the stat. All six years in Cleveland, Stefansky offense has finished top nine in tight-in targets.
Starting point is 04:48:20 And that was kind of all I needed to hear when he came to looking at Kyle Pitts. because you know he's, I mean, he's got enough abilities, like you said, he showed at the end of the year. And I'm not going to go on, on name every name. And then you mentioned the guy that I just fell in love watching his tape, even though it was limited, it was Sadiq.
Starting point is 04:48:38 I'm just like, that's what they're doing. That's what the Jets are going to do. They're going to line up, you know, they're going to two tight-in sets, and they're just going to, you know, they're going to hammer the ball with Brees, and they're going to have a couple of receivers back there that aren't very good.
Starting point is 04:48:50 I mean, I guess Garrett's okay, but Gino is not a corpse. right he's not that impossible to see a world where he can toss a rookie tight in six or seven touchdowns and him his ability
Starting point is 04:49:05 7, 800 yards sounds very doable if he can ascend as they're tied in one that's the question is he going to be ready yeah he's dealing with an injury situation a little bit but I you know I think that's priced in at like 165 overall like
Starting point is 04:49:21 15th round if I'm doing the math right on Kenyon-Sadik. Yeah, I'm good, but... If you're not a Mason-Taylor guy. I'm not. Round us off, Chuck. Pull up some late names for either your... In most scenarios, would be sitting at your tight-in, too,
Starting point is 04:49:47 or if you get smoked out. And I want to pop a call. whole couple names in that range or further down to this will solidify the position yeah i as i mentioned i'm i'm kind of cutting it off after around tight in six seven eight depending on the names you've got in there um i would also underline ken sidique he's the most athletic prospect ever at the position where athleticism has shown to be the highest predictor of success and so yeah i get he's got the sports hernia. I get that it might not happen this year, but he's a guy that if I need two tight ends on my team, he's going to be the second one. Terrence Ferguson has a ton of buzz.
Starting point is 04:50:32 I'm not swayed at all by the two to at well trade today. That means nothing to me for all the reasons that we talked about earlier. Great offensive environment. Super athletic prospect. You know, the end is coming for Devante Adams at some point. It might not be this year, but I'm fine being a year early on Terrence Ferguson if I have to be. Joanne Johnson is going to produce an early part of the season. So if you want to do a little too tight end room with him and Sadiq, I think that's fine or him and Terrence Ferguson. I think that's fine.
Starting point is 04:51:07 Just scrolling down, I think the only other dark throw that I'm really interested in is Eli Raritan, who's been running with the ones. And if he can earn a significant piece of a Drake May pie, that's a pie that I will eat. The last guy I'll bring up because you touched on a lot of the, I mean, I'm always A.J. Barner curious. I just think he's a great football player.
Starting point is 04:51:32 And if you start getting into it's going to be a week down, in the tidium premium league, you're going to find a week in which A.J. Barner is useful. Like, it's just going to happen. But the last name I'll bring up down there that we touched on earlier is a Greg Dolson. target earner, obviously just one of the worst receiver rooms.
Starting point is 04:51:59 If you're going to go into your game planning for a week and tell me that given Malik Washington 10 balls is a better proposition than given those of Greg Dulcich, I'm going to tell you you probably need to find another profession. Like, you don't need to work here anymore because Dulcich can make plays. He's pretty explosive for a tight end because he's. He's more of a wide receiver. He's kind of a Gasecki model tight end, just a different build to him. So fan of Dols, which this year, you're in a real cheap, gross way of baking your way through tight end.
Starting point is 04:52:38 In most home leagues, though, you don't need to scroll down here. You know. For sickos like us, like I love talking about tight ends, but you will create an edge in your typical five, six, seven bench spot leagues if you can be one of the first five to six people that drafts the tight end in in your room and just take one any any other late names you want to want to call outfits before we wrap up ten I mean I think half with your last year we were going to be we thought we were going to be looking at a ronda gatson and saying oh he's that next great tied in he's he's a top five for sure next year and then he kind of just tailored off and then they went ahead and
Starting point is 04:53:19 showed us how much how much they love them by going out and getting two new tight ends and a fullback i i i want him i want him to be the next great tight in i just don't know it i don't know if it's in the card for him in san diego right now yeah that's one of those interesting situations in which like a team really wants this style of tight end and you're never going to be bigger than jim harbara's expectation of what he wants from a tight end rotation he wants the best blocking tight-in, Charlie Kohler, and then he wants the best seam route runner available, David and Joku. And if you aren't either of those things, if you don't fit his very rigid structure of what a tight end can be, and you're just something in the middle of like a soft tight-in that plays
Starting point is 04:54:09 wide receiver kind of and can win, you know, jump balls like to run to Gaston, which is a really cool skill set. A lot of teams would be like over the moon to have that guy. Like you just, sorry, man, you're going to get a 45% route participation for the rest of your life. Maybe he gets traded if that's not what they're looking for because, man, when I first saw him last year and he would be doing what he was doing, I'm like, I thought, I thought he was a wide receiver. He had that, he had that kind of speed and explosiveness. I think he was in college. I think he was at Syracuse. I think he's a one receiver.
Starting point is 04:54:47 That checks. I love buying a Ronde Gadsden. dynasty, but yeah, I don't, I don't have high hopes for him, at least in the early part of this year. Also, Fitz, I just got a text. It says the Chargers moved to L.A. 10 years ago. Still San Diego for me. Last last name, last gross name. I'm going to throw in here that I think could definitely be a backstop if you just get wiped out. Everyone's just. You're in a tight-in room full of sickos, and either you need a starter before you start freaking out,
Starting point is 04:55:28 or you just want to take two tight-ins and be done with it. I think Dalton Schultz is a sneaky good value. Always produces, always puts numbers up on the board. Obviously, they're restructuring their passing game in real time after the Jaden Higgins injury. CJ Stroud just seems to like him. This is one of those things where you're like, I have no interest in owning Dalton Schultz, but
Starting point is 04:55:57 God damn it, man. Sometimes 10 points from your tight end is exactly what you need. So I know it's a gross one, but it's a also a responsible one. Well, over 100 targets last year. Yeah. Yeah. He'll do that. He will do
Starting point is 04:56:16 that type of shit. All right. Well, any other Any of their final thoughts on tight-in position? We wrap it up. Let's talk some quarterbacks. All right. Let's do it. Quarterbacks.
Starting point is 04:56:28 Next. Commercial break. All the money you're making. Yeah. Selling. I got a four hymns commercial. Calci commercial. Bringing him back an oldie tonight that I hadn't seen on a shell.
Starting point is 04:56:58 What's cherry wheat? 15 years. So they still made that? I didn't. know it either and I saw it. I was like, yeah, dude. And it's, it's as good as I remembered it. Actually, I thought my taste buds might have changed a lot, but that was the Monday night special way, way, way, way back in the day. Sam Adams was like one of the first kind of micro craft brews. And I think they kind of got lost and, you know, everything the industry became, but they're still
Starting point is 04:57:26 hanging around and, you know, their entire catalog isn't bangers, but they make a lot of good beers. I love the old Fezziwig. It's not just, I love the, just the Boston Lager. I love Boston Lager. The October Fest is great. And you know, Mike, what they really have, they have on their side is fonts. They've always had a really strong brand. I mean, you're, strong branding.
Starting point is 04:57:53 The biggest font guy I could ever approach and ask that question if you really support it. They got a style. They got a bit. They stick to it. And real quick, by the. the way dude i i know i mentioned to chuck you the night but that uh the hc rules in texas was uh a really fun watch oh thanks man that you post on instagram and i know it took a while yeah the research was annoying about a research dude yeah you got to get it right too
Starting point is 04:58:18 yeah there's one dickhead on there it's like t hca's not schedule one and i was like cool show me where and quoted a website and it was like it's just says marijuana And I was like, THCA can be a handful of things. That's why the law is different, dude. And that guy, that guy shut up. And then there's another dude that runs as something and he's like,
Starting point is 04:58:43 clearly by his interactions with other people that were talking, responding to his responses, I was like, this guy's an absolute fucking asshole. And so, it's a dude that runs, I don't know if he runs like a pot store or whatever, but he was like, he was like, Tosha is not a schedule one. And I was like, cool, what's your, what's your source?
Starting point is 04:59:03 Just show me. Where it says that anywhere on the internet or just in life. And I said, what's your source? And he said, I'm the source. I was like, okay. Are you Greg Abbott? All right. That's weird.
Starting point is 04:59:23 I'm going to take the microphone away from your mouth, sir. they're okay done interacting with you it's not not really how it works I was like have a good day but yeah yeah
Starting point is 04:59:37 it's just yeah it is weird but yeah there's a lot of confusing information out there so it's like I'm gonna research the shit out of it
Starting point is 04:59:47 the delta 8 delta 9 all the delta's too that was that's kind of difficult but that's still sort of confusing to me but I don't have to fuck with it here obviously Yeah, they don't give a shit there. No.
Starting point is 04:59:59 Yeah. Mushrooms. You can get mushrooms up here. Let's go. Now we're talking, dude. Yeah. Now we're fucking talking. Okay.
Starting point is 05:00:11 Let's see. Let's just go. All right. Stand by. Coming your way in three. Two. The action is the juice. It's Mike.
Starting point is 05:00:27 It's Fitz. It's Chuck. It's year 11. And we've gotten to. to the position that you can kind of fake your way through. You can watch the other bozos in your home league, draft too early, unless you're in Superflex, and we can talk briefly about strategies and Superflex and things like that.
Starting point is 05:00:47 And it's always fun to have a difference maker at quarterback. Being able to pinpoint those people at this point in the season, and which one's going to separate from the other is a little bit difficult. And I mentioned it. I think both of our season previews on with Daigle and one we did earlier. This is the latest you've been able to get the quarterbacks. Let's see where my home is quarterback 10. There's the latest ever in fantasy football for standard or home leagues that you've been able to get the quarterback 10.
Starting point is 05:01:22 So take that into account. If it feels early for a quarterback, if I'm reaching on a guy, if it doesn't make a ton of sense, there's always, I've not been in a draft yet in which I've sat out quarterback for a long time and not gotten a guy that I feel confident in. So see old put that sheet away, whenever we used to wear, use sheets. Put that page away. I'll check back about 30 minutes. See how it's going over there.
Starting point is 05:02:00 That said, you still have to have takes. You still have to have winners. You still have offenses that you want to put your chips on. So you don't just take the next guy available whenever you don't like the rest of the board. I think that's a huge mistake that people make is, I don't like the board right now. And cool, let's go to the onesie positions. I think that's a pretty failed strategy. But Chuck, I know you definitely have thoughts on the quarterback position.
Starting point is 05:02:25 And they're pretty simple. And people can write them down on the back of their hand. Give me who you want at QB this year. Yeah, I think to service any listener who's in a non-traditional, you know, 12-quarterback, I'm sorry, 12-team one quarterback league. The most interesting way to think about quarterback this year is in those non-traditional formats. If you're in a superflex league, you have to leave the draft or the first two rounds with one quarterback. You can play with the rest. You can, you know, do too late. You can slide. back in when a name you like is coming up, but you're going to be way behind if you don't leave
Starting point is 05:03:08 the early rounds with at least one quarterback. If you are in an eight team league or the smaller your league size, that's where an elite separator at the onesie positions really matters more. And so in those type of formats, I'm okay, you know, taking Josh Allen because he's probably going to finish the quarterback one if he doesn't get hurt. In every other format, though, the incentive this year is to wait. We are facing the sharpest quarterback ADP market we've ever seen. And ADP at quarterback is actually really predictive of where they're going to finish at the end of the year. And so I think staying in line with ADP is really important at quarterback.
Starting point is 05:03:52 You can reach a little bit, but there's not a lot of edge to be had in player takes like there was in years past. we're not looking at 2025 when Drake May was really sticking out like a sore thumb, you know, or the year before when Jaden Daniels was really sticking out like a sore thumb. I think the closest thing I have to a player take is just that the price is a little wrong. And so I'm really into Justin Herbert this year. I'm really into Jalen Hertz this year, but not significantly above ADP. And so this is kind of the boring show for a reason. Yeah.
Starting point is 05:04:29 I mean, there's a handful of dudes done here that I'm like, okay, I'm looking for all the signals of what brought you Drake May, what brought you, you know, Joe Burrow. None of the guys that are lower down there are necessarily rushing threats that are going to just like take on this new skill set. There's just not like not a ton of indicators that this thing could, this guy could be the next thing. further down the board. I think they're all priced pretty accurately. Fitz, did you have a favorite this year in a range in which you're comfortable taking? Yeah, I mean, like we mentioned, Josh Allen, draw a line, and then just kind of take a nap.
Starting point is 05:05:15 I do love Herbert this year. We're targeting him in our six-point passing touchdown league. Trevor Lawrence is the guy that I have kind of a hard on for this year. I think it's just like, oh, everybody kind of gets on this, this, it's the same shit every year. It's like, oh, people just look at touchdowns and they say, okay, regression. He's not going to repeat that. And therefore, we're just going to slot him here. And, well, he hasn't run for nine touchdowns before.
Starting point is 05:05:45 So he'll run for four or five. And that's going to put, and they're just doing these projections. And projection, I don't, I don't know about you guys. I don't just, I'll never write down projections. And I don't really pay attention to them. I just think about situation and kind of what they did last year. And then in my head, I have a ballpark of where I think that should put them. And for him, you know, Trevor Lawrence is 29 touchdown passes.
Starting point is 05:06:07 This is very repeatable to me. And he's second year Liam Cohen offense. And he always has run the football. And he's always had at least, I think, I think four, maybe his lowest touchdown output as a running quarterback. I think he had six another year. And yes, nine was a pop year. But, dude, I'm all in on Trevor Lawrence because none of these other guys, have maybe uh... caleb williams is the guy that we're kind of like
Starting point is 05:06:30 is he that next dude he's the one kind of guy that i imagine in your big money drafts that he's kind of that guy where you're like okay i can still get him for seven the eighth quarterback uh whatever he is and it's a huge variance this year and what you think about quarterbacks now imagine if you guys close your eyes and you woke up and without looking at a dp we would all have very different lists before we saw a dp this year about what you thought about the quarterback position. And for him, I was like, okay, maybe number two, maybe number three. Like, okay, maybe Lamar is up there.
Starting point is 05:07:02 Caleb is way up there. Caleb is the kind of the home run hitting, like, let's swing for the fences kind of guy because he could excel and throw 40 touchdowns this year and he can run. But Lawrence, to me, is rock solid. And he's hitting his prime. He's like he's about to be 28. six of the last seven weeks he was in top seven quarterbacks I'm all in on on T law this year
Starting point is 05:07:30 and if he gets you know jumped before me I mean I guess Herbert's going to be going before him in most like most drafts but those are the two sort of dudes that I'm like kind of basing my early ish like first eight nine rounds I would I would guess in a proper format that I'm looking at And then after that, you know, it's like late round Jared golf sounds pretty nice to me as he's going outside the top 12. Yeah, this is the ultimate take your medicine and stay disciplined position to me.
Starting point is 05:08:03 Because you can get really excited and you can like click on a guy that you just like really like to watch or really like the hype is behind. Like Jackson Darts like a great example to me, right? where it's people were, he had a couple of cool games where he delivered as a, as a, as a, as a top 12 quarterback on a couple weeks. And everyone's like, he's here. It's, it's happening. He's fun. Don't care about the blue medical tent stuff. When in reality, like everybody that's in front of him in ADP, even Stafford, who doesn't run it all and is due for some touchdown regression, I'm like, they all make more sense in front of him.
Starting point is 05:08:43 Don't get trigger happy and say 9580P, Jackson Dart needs to go above 87 ADP Trevor Lawrence just because I want something fun. But I am, if I'm not going elite quarterback up top, which I'm not hardly ever, I'm usually looking for, I fill out my starters and then I look over there. And I go, okay, who's still there? and the people that are in that range that make a lot of sense right now
Starting point is 05:09:18 after I get six guys in my lineup is DAC and Caleb Williams for completely different reasons. DAC is a take your medicine type player for me of pretty healthy bet to maybe lead the league in passing. George Pick and C.D. Lamb, Jake Ferguson. it's going to be, you know, Flanoy, even Camden Brown now is coming on. I think they've got a really, really good offensive setup and a good enough offensive line.
Starting point is 05:09:52 And then Caleb, like, when someone shows you that they can go nuclear, I just, I assume that trait is there moving forward, especially with Ben Johnson. And, you know, the same style that we kind of gush over what Brock Purdy has been able to do in healthy because of Kyle Shanahan. I think Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson were able to do some magical things. I think that's a good investment. You know, seventh round is where they're going, at least according to ETR. And then, you know, you get down the list and you can get excited about your own guys down here. And Jordan Love is a favorite of, I think, all of ours, or at least Chuck likes him as well. And then, you know, I think my biggest
Starting point is 05:10:40 The weirdest take, I think, this year quarterback, is that I don't think Malik Willis is going to suck ass. Like, I think he's just going to be fine. I think he played fine when he was a Packer. And obviously, that's a healthier offensive ecosystem. But, I mean, do learn how to throw. Also is going to be the most rushing attempts for a quarterback most likely. That typically equals, like, really good quarterback play or really good fantasy.
Starting point is 05:11:10 quarterback play whenever dudes do take it upon themselves to rush in the way i think willie will and then the other one is um i think mendoza's gonna be fine after he starts starting i know the offensive environment's not great but you got clint kubiak you got you got enough of it um with kubiak and brock bowers um to to keep me keep me tethered and interested in mendoza and then everybody else like whatever like i don't know like Jones, Stroud, darn old Kim Ward, like, I don't want anything to do with that shit necessarily. So it's kind of a fun, fun quarterback market right now where everything's being priced, I think we're it's supposed to. I'm definitely on Herbert, just like you guys.
Starting point is 05:11:57 I know a Mike McDaniel offense with a quarterback of that talent is kind of the shit dreams are made of. So no arguments there. and yeah I'm just not touching not touching the top four guys it cost those are like fourth round picks depending on where you're at or super early fifth round picks
Starting point is 05:12:21 the earliest I would ever take any of these dudes is jaden Daniels or jalen Hertz and both of them I'm fine with everybody in that group I'm like just perfectly fine with jaden Daniels Jalen Hertz Dack Prescott Kayla Williams Triple Orange Justin Herbert that's a great group that is a phenomenal group of quarterbacks and i can all see make really high
Starting point is 05:12:43 upside cases for and like i said you do not want to be the guy picking the top guy in the tier so i'll wait until three of those guys are gone and then i'll go okay Trevor's still here or Caleb still here or you know what this is a half round early on trevor so i'm going to wait and see let's see one two three four five six six seven, eight, nine quarterbacks have gone in front of Trevor. You can double tap, you get double tap quarterbacks on the way back guys. No, you're not going to. I'll get him on the route.
Starting point is 05:13:19 What's the, I understand why people want Drake May because they, they won their leagues last year by drafting him an incredible value late. And he runs and he's got A.J. Brown, but the schedule was dog shit last year. And I'm sorry, due to what three ADP is what he's getting his quarterback. I don't know how he isn't going in most leagues. Like, what is he, fifth round? Yeah, 52, so top of the fifth round. Un fucking, there's no, nobody in this room is taking him before the eighth round, right?
Starting point is 05:13:50 I'm not touching any of those dudes. That's just stupid. But there are people that are doing that, though, and that's a, it's like, guys, how long we've been playing fantasy football? You don't draft him after, you don't try to, you don't draft him on price of the year that he after he pops. What's his ceiling? Yeah. Second round, third round, at most, you're not getting any value on that.
Starting point is 05:14:12 Very unlikely he's returning your value. It's the worst buy in maybe in fantasy football, in the fantasy football draft this year is drafting Drake May that high. Yeah, I think, you know, classic football guy speak, but I think that offense could absolutely be better and more potent and he be worse in fantasy. Yeah, yeah. And that would be right.
Starting point is 05:14:36 And that would be good. That'd be great for the Patriots because that means that they're more efficient and not every single yard and every single first down, every single touchdown is running through Drake May because that's not, that's just not sustainable. He's been able to shoulder it and get it done at least one year against the worst schedule ever. I mean, the easiest schedule ever. Guy like Caleb Williams does it sometimes, right? And I think the goal there is to not have the whole offense on Caleb's shoulders either. and that's why the running game got to where it was last year. But yeah, it's just, I like kind of all these dudes after pick 80 at cost.
Starting point is 05:15:20 I think they're all really, really nice selections. The thing you can always do is look at your board, see who has quarterbacks, who doesn't have quarterbacks. If all the teams down behind you on a turn have quarterbacks already, and it's round eight. They ain't taken another one right now. And if they do, they're fucking idiots. And then you'll just grab that wide receiver that they should have taken.
Starting point is 05:15:45 Let it slide. Push it around the turn. Challenge them. If you really, if you really, really, really think you need Jackson Dard around this turn or Patrick Mahomes around this turn is your second quarterback, go ahead, big boy. But I'm going to, I'm going to bet you're going to. going to sit there with Jaden Daniels or Joe Burrow in your pocket and you're not going to even think about quarterback. So it's a unique position and people definitely have player takes and
Starting point is 05:16:15 definitely have on my draft my favorite team's quarterback and this guy's fun and that type of shit. There's just like a lot of nonsense that goes into what people actually put into their quarterback selections. It's like a funny, it's pretty funny process to watch. So I don't know. We talked way longer about quarterback than I thought we were. You don't really need to say much more. The way to think about it is kind of like you're a bond trader. You know, you're not, no one gets rich overnight trading bonds. This is not a tech stock like running back or receiver.
Starting point is 05:16:49 This is a really efficient market. Production really flattens out. It's actually a really deep position this year. A couple of micro edges that I would offer is in taking, so we're talking about Drake May earlier. The heart of fantasy is production that exceeds acquisition cost. And Drake May last year when he was going in the 12, 13, 14th round, absolutely smash all day. Because he was a profile that we should be looking for, which is second year quarterbacks and good offenses. Year one to two is when quarterbacks take the leap. And that was last year for him.
Starting point is 05:17:28 guys that fit kind of that mold this year are gosh why am i blanking on his name who's the titans quarterback cam ward cam ward yeah so um maybe there's some signal there i'm not taking it another edge is fading historically high touchdown rates so you know touchdowns divided by total pass attempts once you get above five and a half six and a half uh That's where you need to be looking for aggression. And that name this year is Matt Stafford. And so he's a guy that's borderline off my board unless I'm trying to create a stack. The incentive this year is really just to wait.
Starting point is 05:18:12 And if you only are taking one tight end and you've got some bench spots to play with, you can absolutely kind of do an internal streaming where you take two quarterbacks late and you just look at the matchups. And you pick based on that because. Total point scored is really predictive, like NFL lines or the sharpest market in the world. Again, like the bond market. And you can really highly predict who's going to have a reasonable week. And if you're just looking for floor at quarterback, drive it to eat. Yeah.
Starting point is 05:18:47 And a sophomore guy that you brought up. Yeah. Tyler Shuck. Tyler Shuck. Yeah. I mean, that offense is going to be better. I think they're going to score a lot more points I did last year. When Jordan Tyson is back, I think that's going to be a significantly more potent passing game.
Starting point is 05:19:10 He had a offensive lines better. Yeah, he had a run last year. Seven rushing attempts, six rushing attempts, seven rushing attempts, eight rushing attempts in this four consecutive games. It calmed down a little bit at the end of the year. But he had, you know, three rushing touchdowns. He's not a burner, but he's capable of, you know, giving you that little, extra edge and like you said Kellan Moore second year
Starting point is 05:19:31 it didn't take them long man he caught on fast yeah I mean I'm I'm the type of sicko that'll like sit there all day and take Jordan Love and then Tyler Shuck and just be laughing just be laughing at everybody
Starting point is 05:19:50 you're like all right cool bud way to go that's so Fox of you so Fox Sports Southwest drafts yeah exactly I love that. And the highest that Tyler Shuck is going on all the home league sites is quarterback 19. Yeah. Man.
Starting point is 05:20:07 Boy, this is really making me think about what I could do. That's ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo. I just clicked through all of them. I don't have CBS. Yeah. That's wonderful. Because there is going to be some money spent on some of these quarterbacks, even though if it's not the top dollar, you're still going to be getting in those auctions.
Starting point is 05:20:25 You're going to get, you know, the seven or eight. dollar variety or in the in the home leagues and you know these draft sites are decent draft capital that's going to go past that qb one and people aren't going to be looking at title of shuck and i'll i'll leave everyone with this last tip on on quarterback um look at the offenses that have the most number highest number of fantasy significant and relevant players in it because that is a prediction market in itself by ADP, which offense has the most guys in the first eight rounds, seven rounds, six rounds in terms of skill positions, take those quarterbacks, take those quarterbacks because this is a prediction market and it's a pretty
Starting point is 05:21:18 sharp market across the board. And if the wider receiver is going to be good and the wide receiver two is going to be good and the running back is predicted to be good and the tightest, end is even going top six rounds all of that stuff has to be funneled through an effective quarterback there are a couple of situations where we're just like not playing it right and not all these guys can hit but if it's enough of the guys that are layered in there then enough people in the fantasy football usually best ball or tournament market or telling you that this offense is going to be productive and you want to be a part of a productive offenses and you want to have that quarterback. Packers are a great example. Great example. Like they have three to four
Starting point is 05:22:09 relevant pass catchers that are going in the top nine rounds, right? Saints likewise and running backs. But anyway, that's kind of my trick of if you're trying to figure out which quarterback has the edge, okay, which ones have it has the most position players on his team? team going early in drafts because just use the market to tell you what's good you don't have to be smarter than the next guy you're just going to be better at looking at the market um so all right fellas this has been a treat i uh appreciate both of you this is awesome man we're number 11 in the books we're going to end this before midnight for you we are look at us look at us um but this is awesome man um thank you thank you chuck thank you fits if you have any party words for the
Starting point is 05:22:57 for the listeners for the for the for the sickos out there please do please do throw them out there but i really appreciate everyone that listens and i appreciate you guys putting the effort in and this is also people can win their homelings and win money uh because i want everybody to enjoy fantasy football and have a good time with it so uh it's absolutely laborer love for the 11th year uh let's win some win some leagues win some fucking money i did want to say like the best i brought this up couple times. Like after our first year, just sat at a bar, liquid landing. And just random guy was talking fantasy football.
Starting point is 05:23:32 And I hopped into conversation. And he happened to, after exchange names, he's like, you did that podcast with the Mike Marshall, right? I said, the fantasy football podcast? He's like, he goes, yeah, dude, I went one and one in my two leagues last year. I'm like, that's all I needed to hear. Just somebody, one person, he was the one person that told me that he listened to the podcast. And so, and every year I'm getting a couple of buds that reached out to me and say,
Starting point is 05:23:56 hey, are you doing that podcast? You know, and it's just one of those things. Just that little reminder, it's just like, okay, at least some people are paying attention and they're enjoying it and hopefully they're getting some value out of it. And because, you know, we're not making money off this. We're just doing it for the love. Yep. Oh, we're making money.
Starting point is 05:24:14 Just not off this podcast. Yeah. Not off advertisers. Unless somebody wants to pay us to do this. Hey, happy to. I'm happy to do a weekly nightly show. If somebody wants to, wants to give us a little bit. of money you just make it worth the time during the season but uh this has been awesome thank you guys
Starting point is 05:24:31 for your time uh i know it creates some long nights and a long week overall but you know if you enjoy doing it it's it's not real work or anything like that so uh we got ffpc main event drafts this weekend got a couple two or three more home league drafts uh around the corner uh but i'm i'm extremely locked in uh at this point in time so uh i appreciate you guys appreciate daygill for off and on as well. I thought it brought something pretty nice to the offerings we threw out there. But let's win them, guys. Let's win the fucking leagues and have a great year. Have a happy football. All right. The action is the juice. It's Mike. It's John Daigle joining the show. First time ever.
Starting point is 05:25:18 Longtime caller, long time texter. First time on the screen. What's up, dude? How are you? To your point, long time listener, but first time caller. Really excited to be here. We have text each other many times behind the scenes. We are in a dynasty league with our friends Jared Sandler and others, but we have not recorded together. So very excited for tonight. Yeah, yeah, Dave. I don't know how you got tied in with the whole blowout crew and the dumb zone crew back in the day.
Starting point is 05:25:47 But I remember hearing your name and I was like, who the fuck is Daygo? And then I was like, oh, that dude rules. And I remember talking to you about Mav stuff back in the day. You got to remember that all of us may have gone. different directions, but we all came up together. Jake, Jake Kemp, yourself, Bobby Corolla, so many others I'm forgetting right now, but all of us just kind of, we're working our way through the Dallas media scene and doing different things. And that's because we were all
Starting point is 05:26:15 ticket brethren. And so that's what we wanted to do the rest of our lives. And again, it resulted in different ways. I'm now in Chicago and have lived in L.A. and Connecticut for NBC to be a fantasy football analyst elsewhere. But we ultimately a lot of us ended up doing something within sports yeah yeah uh so dagle is at establish the run um right now which is uh i'm i'm i'm partial what crane does because i get to work with crane uh now i don't know if i told you that um but uh i do i do a lot of his uh his video and graphic stuff now did you did you tell him you know me yeah yeah for sure okay yeah i name i name dropped you crane and i have had many nights together that's really cool i didn't
Starting point is 05:26:59 know that yeah yeah i just reached out and i was like hey man like i think you're really good at this i think you could use some some help on the video and graphic front and i do that kind of shit um and anyway what i was getting to is establish the run is the absolute best um no matter what kind of game you're playing um it'll you know levitan says it very well then no matter what you're doing they can help you win your league this weekend like absolutely and uh dagle's a huge part of that the season long bro um everyone knows sylva because he's the godfather uh levitan because he's just like the hardest worker that i've ever seen in the space on the camera but establish the run go get a membership cannot recommend it enough um it's uh if you're if you're a nob if you're if you're a seasoned
Starting point is 05:27:47 vet there's something for you on establish the run so uh please please go check that out help out dagle's employer and i do truly believe in their in their products and that what they bring to the table. So there we go. We paid the bills there. I feel like I need a feel for how many leagues and how much shit John has going on this time of year. What are we rolling with? How many bestball teams? Are you a full on best ball bro now? Are you all dynasty? I know you're one league you're in with me, but I need the full. I need to see the Pepe Sylvia board that lives at your house. I am not full-time best ball bro, but I do max out draft kings, for example. I will have 150 teams and the main one that pays out $3 million, $2 million, and $1 million to first, second, and third.
Starting point is 05:28:39 I will do that. Having said that, though, when the clock turns to July, I am the labeled because none of us are professional. We had no idea what to call me when I joined three years ago. So we just said, what if he's just the season long bro? I was like, yeah, I'll be the season long bro to establish the run. And so I turn all of my attention towards your home leagues, your season long leagues that you take the most pride in because those are the leagues that you talk the most shit in and your text thread. So that's what I handle at Establish to Run. Thus, I check out a best ball a lot of times towards the end of summer.
Starting point is 05:29:12 But for my own sleeper, Yahoo, CBS, ESPN apps, the thing is everyone forgets, I have charity leagues. I do too. And so when you factor those in, because quick story, by the way, last year there was an idea to do a Reddit league on behalf of the charity of our choice. And I don't want to be like the guy that gets into it, but therapy has helped me immensely throughout my life, saved my life actually. And so I played on behalf of Nomney, like the mental health association. And I got because let me explain why real quick. Because they wanted to advertise waivers to give people a direction on Tuesday morning. As we all know, you run your waivers Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Starting point is 05:29:59 They wanted to be ahead of it so everyone can see what the quote unquote professionals are doing on waivers. So they won waivers Monday night. And everyone like yourself who knows my work and establish the run, I am not breathing Monday night, let alone thinking about anything else other than the subscribers and my work. So my waiver runs were most of the time, honestly, just forgotten. I was very bad at it. Thus, thus, I was playing on behalf of mental health and I got last place in this league. So that's not a great start to playing in charity leagues, but I do a lot of those. And not to mention like the $2,000 FFPC main event leagues that you yourself play in with friends as well. So combined between that home dynasty leagues, home superplex leagues, I think it's roughly 37 to 40 this year.
Starting point is 05:30:47 That doesn't include best ball because I don't have to set best ball. waivers in lineups, but roughly, let's say, 40. Yeah, I mean, best ball's got a really good thing going right now. I was kind of skeptical to jump into it because it's like, you know, there's like the entry-level drugs, which are like the 10-team home league with one quarterback and, you know, half-pR, like, cool. I exhausted that real quick. After like, after like five years, I was like, how do we get this dynasty? How do we get this like, whatever it's, called whenever you win two or three years in a row and it like the league dissolves like i love the the multitudes of fantasy football that can happen and the ways you have to think about them
Starting point is 05:31:30 and i think you can tell by the league that i put together that you're in like it's kind of a never-ending decision point league where throughout the year you're going to have to make tough decisions um it's not just a humongous bench right you got to cut down you got to add people so but best ball has a really, really good thing going right now. They've found, they've eliminated all the kind of bugaboos of, oh, you don't have to set it during the year. Oh, you can get these done earlier late. There are now two huge, well, FFPC's coming along or yeah, FFPC's coming along in best ball, but like, you know, it's draft king since underdog. And I feel like an idiot because I play a lot of underdog and I feel like all the sharps are there. Whereas drafts,
Starting point is 05:32:18 I hear these stories and it's like tales from the the front front of the war where it's like a draft king's he's going here and I'm like how who is playing on draft kings is that why you're over there uh it is softer it's 20 rounds also so similar to ffPC in being a full ppr format it gives you outs in the last rounds where tight ends could then become usable scores like flexible as well uh and so I do like that approach. FFPC though does have mandatory only two wide receivers. And so really while everyone's picking apart wide receivers there, it is a optimal strategy. It's been proven to then instead go tight end or running back. So yeah, I like draft Kings for the full PPR. I think half PPR, 18 rounds. So we're cutting off two and we're drafting there a little bit more complicated.
Starting point is 05:33:10 Yeah. My only, just because of convenience, like I've had, I just had money on underdog. So I'm just like, I just keep rolling underdog each year. And I've never even gotten close to like halfway maxing either of those tournaments. But it's one of those things I keep telling myself each year. I was like, I'm an idiot for not doing that. And Chuck's the same way. Chuck and I own a bunch of FFPC main event teams together. He's like my co-manager.
Starting point is 05:33:35 We challenge each other on, you know, ideas pretty consistently because we share teams. And he's like, man, this is the year. The max center, the BBM. And we neither of us have even gotten close. We always get too busy in like June, July, August. And I think I have like 15 in the underdog BBM right now. And I'm like, all right, got some ground to make up. The secret is to ignore your significant other children and pile into slow drafts,
Starting point is 05:34:05 for those they don't know, four to eight hour clocks on your pick. And then check in like after dinner when you're laying down in bed. So you have your phone away. It be a healthy person. Go touch grass, go outside, don't look at your phone. Then you come back before bed and just put that white light directly into your eyes and go through 40 rounds making picks all at once. That way, it's all stacking and you can just do it in blocks.
Starting point is 05:34:30 Yeah, that's like shotgunting. It's like a strikeout. It's like a beer, a shot, and a rip. Just sink that syringe into your veins one time and be done with it for the next eight hours of your life. That's how I handle the max entering. I'm scared of it, John. I feel like it'll change me.
Starting point is 05:34:50 It'll change me as a man if I just get to make 50 straight picks. Like, it's too much for me. I can't. I'll annoy your friends is what it's going to do. Well, we got, we got, we did a cell phone because we went to, and then, now bragging, but we went to a boys, a boys weekend up in Puget Sound, Seattle area. And me and Chuck were like, we're going to draft the shit out of some team. teams and we get up there and like number one the internet in this place we're staying like
Starting point is 05:35:20 it's kind of funny uh to call it internet uh and then we're like oh we're in washington state i can't draft underdog in washington state we had like a whole day where we're just like we're like we're just going to do best ball media teams dude and then we're like uh we would have to drive over to Oregon to get this done and we didn't do it so still lacking on my on my best ball exposures but uh all right so that's that's dagle he's the best uh we're going to get into it i promise we'll get it we'll get it moving here pretty quick um so follow me here because i think there's being in i'm about uh maybe a 40-60 split at this point between like 40% like home leagues or leagues i get invited to by friends of friends and
Starting point is 05:36:11 things like that and like 60% like going against the sharps doing in main event, doing underdog stuff like that. And the thing I noticed the most, and I've heard people talk about this, is in the home leagues and kind of across the board, remember people start rising, whenever you start getting the signals, that this guy's legit, this is going to be a thing. And then a little bit of confirmation comes in and you get that drum beat. I feel like in home leagues, people do not adjust enough when someone starts rising up the boards.
Starting point is 05:36:44 And this, most people that listen to this are playing at home leagues. They're, they're, they got a couple maybe redraft teams. They got a couple of dynasty teams. Hopefully at this point, I've talked them into that. Has to be PPR. Don't listen to FITs. And I feel like that's the thing I still see in the home league, the redraft home leagues I'm in. And I did one Sunday night.
Starting point is 05:37:05 And I was like, oh, y'all have haven't heard, you know? It's like I got all these secrets that can keep my back pocket. So give me some people that you've seen. rise the most over the last, let's just say like month, and the people that you're still in on at cost, even though they have jumped around to maybe five rounds up the board. It's all going to be a temperature check with these individuals because every league is different.
Starting point is 05:37:40 I know people want to be spoon-fed rankings and just draft directly from them. But in order to get the best values, you're still adding a human element. You're not letting AI come from your job. You still got to make the choice yourself and understanding where these players are going to go. So a couple of I'm still very high on,
Starting point is 05:37:58 despite having terrific preseason or camp performances, and I believe can really make a difference here. Let's start with 49ers wide receiver, days on stribling. And that's because he was a guy, as I'm sure you were aware, whenever you were first breaking down profiles ahead of jumping into main events on FFBC, he was a player NFL execs were much higher on than us fantasy nerds, right?
Starting point is 05:38:20 A 6'2, 207-pound wide receiver who on the surface, like NFL execs will then look at that size and naturally say, okay, that's an X receiver. But that's also kind of what went wrong with Matthew Golden and the Packers last year, first round wide receiver because he ran really fast, for example. But if you broke down his collegiate profile, and this is why I didn't draft him at all last year, he had literally never reached a 17% target share at any point throughout college. He was just a guy who never earned targets. He shows up to the NFL last year.
Starting point is 05:38:54 He has a 10.5% target share and really fails at cost. And so that's what we're doing here. We're saying, does your profile belong in this range? And honestly, striplings does not. That's the funniest part about it. His one and final year in the SEC last season resulted in a 14.8% target share. Not really a guy who was earning targets. Having said that, it's not only that he now has the capital tagging along with them
Starting point is 05:39:21 since the 49ers picked them as the very first player on day two, the Cs have since really parted. Ricky Pearson, lost for the season. Mike Evans has missed 11 games the last two years. And when Mike Evans is healthy, he's the kind of guy who is national. actually going to compete as a wide receiver won every single week. The thing is, at this date of his career, he does not stay healthy. And that's okay, you can start him or when he's out, sit him.
Starting point is 05:39:47 And Debo Samuel, who Washington saw one year of and said, we're done with this. I understand he knows Kyle Shanahan's playbook so we can arrive and just take on touches. But again, the red carpet has really been rolled out now for Days on Stripling, who take this with a grain of salt. But now in two preseason weeks has run 20. routes, he's been targeting on 52% of those routes. They're really just throwing into the fire and saying, let's see what you can do because buddy, we need you in Australia on Wednesday night and week one.
Starting point is 05:40:18 Like, we need you ready immediately given all the injuries on this team. And so I am going to then take my work because I don't like to be stubborn with all of this. I naturally, you know, we eventually learn our lesson when you've done this as long as I have and where you like to be pragmatic with all your decision making and understand what we need to adjust. So despite that profile I've told you about earlier, I have myself since adjusted and said, actually, I'm just going to take the big picture view of an explosive rookie wide receiver who the team continues talking up throughout camp and preseason. Now who has this runway to be the wide receiver one, not to mention, he also has the fact that Kyle Shanahan's offense
Starting point is 05:41:02 has finished top nine and yards per attempt. And every season, since, 2019 because he's Kyle freaking Shanahan. That's the kind of playbook in offense that can naturally elevate him. And so I'm just going to bet on the situation as opposed to continuing to think about my own profile for this individual. And I think he should be going as high as he currently does in home leagues. Yeah, I mean, I was aware of stribling just from college football. And whenever he went that early, I think I think JJ has, what is it, like draft point delta, where it's like there is some kind of signal to be read from a guy that gets overdrafted, right? And so, stribling, I mean, the drumbeat has been as loud as you could possibly get,
Starting point is 05:41:47 I think, at this point, Pierce Hall injury, of course, a huge deal. Their other primary pass catcher George Kittle, like, yeah, I think Kittle's going to be fine about week six or seven and you're going to be, I'm going to hate myself because I'm getting zero Kittle. and he's probably my favorite player, maybe ever. And I'm just like, I don't want to mess with it. I don't want to deal with the old man Achilles thing. And there's a way that these things can go with a wide receiver like that.
Starting point is 05:42:19 You can get an Xavier Leggett in the first round that doesn't make sense ever for that cost. And then you can get a Brian Thomas Jr., who is a guy that I had skepticism over because of that target share stuff, right? And so I don't know where Stribling is going to iron out. What I know is it feels like the 49ers are pretty much determined to make you forget about Iyuk and Pierceall and all the other previous failures at wide receiver and going like, this guy's going to work. This guy, I'm going to make sure this guy works.
Starting point is 05:42:59 And they kind of cleared the decks. I mean, Juan Jennings is gone, whether or not. he was a good dude in the room and all that kind of stuff i don't know and he's having not a great game so maybe he was he was due for a due for a cash out and give up um and they saw that coming but and the stribling thing is is it's fascinating it's absolutely fascinating because physical beast um and you you've you know you've seen the first two preseason games when he gets a ball in his hands like he's he's pretty big and violent um and so i don't know what his ADEP is right now but i it's like a 10th maybe last night is where I saw him kind of go in a home league.
Starting point is 05:43:39 I like that call. I think that's worth the risk at that price point. I think the actionable takeaway for everyone's home league is to look at when Jordan Addison, Romeo Dubs, Khalil Shakir, and Jalen Koker most of the time start coming off the board, that's when I start taking Dizan Stripling. that range whenever it may be. No, that's, yeah, I like that. I like that call.
Starting point is 05:44:09 Did you have any other players you wanted to hit or, there were risers? Is there a name you can think of off the top of your head who has risen due to preseason? Because like, guys like Jacoby Lane and Cyrus Allen, so Cyrus Allen, who came out of nowhere for the Chiefs, and Jacobi Lane, who has been lining it up in the preseason for the Ravens. I get it, but also those are not risers that,
Starting point is 05:44:33 the capital matters that we spend on like stribling, you can grab Jacoby Lane and Cyrus Allen and basically every next to last or very last round. And remember, like, the last five, six rounds in home leagues, we're going to cut those guys most time anyway. So if you like a player, or if you just want to feel like you're part of the room, you're joining your friends and cheering on these late round risers,
Starting point is 05:44:55 I say you grab them because, again, most of the guys I even tell you to draft in the last round, we're just going to end up cutting in a month anyhow. Yeah. And I think the two that stick out to me that have risen the most, but are getting absolutely pricey. And one has his truthers from when he was drafted. And I live in Texas, so he was a Texas kid. Now, I already know where you're going.
Starting point is 05:45:22 Yeah. Like Brooks, Brooks already had truthers, right? And people were just waiting for a reason to be high, to overdraft Jonathan Brooks, especially in this area. And, you know, no judgment. Like the tape's great. Like, he was a phenomenal prospect. We're two season-ending knee injuries removed from that time. I'm not a doctor.
Starting point is 05:45:44 I don't know how that works. Brooks has been rising consistently to the point where now you're having to bet on him paying off a RB2 kind of price tag. And then the other one is a dude that I was really in on last year and still have a lot of faith in and has gotten some rooms, FFPC. We have our first FFPC made of events. at Friday. I bet he's probably into the fourth round, Bachel Tutin, because when you are the fastest player,
Starting point is 05:46:09 your position at the Combine, people remember your name. So people have been waiting to like Tutin, and been waiting to like Brooks, and been waiting to overdraft both of them, to the point where, like, I don't know if there's a, there's a value in either of those dudes, despite the fact that I want both of them on my team, and I have a lot of them in, on Dynasty leagues.
Starting point is 05:46:31 And that might be the play. You know what I mean? And that might be the play is to like, yeah, you missed the boat. Acquired them six months ago in a dynasty league. But how are you feeling on Tutin and on Brooks? I like both individuals. Fourth round may get a little bit dicey if Jonathan Brooks gets there. But again, him and Chuba Harbor are temperature check individuals throughout drafts.
Starting point is 05:46:55 Because I promise you, if we, you know, grab some strangers off social media and we did 10 drafts back to back, they would never go in the same spot. I'd argue 100 drafts back to back. They'd never go in the same spot. They're always varying with their cost. But I do think Jonathan Brooks has the better outlook there based on what we've seen from Chuba Hubbard, including last year, whenever he got injured, he comes back. He's demoted. It only handles 37% of the team's back field touches. But more importantly, he's not even there receiving back on third down. So he has less outs to get there. They instead kept Rico Dowdell, who then earned a nine and a half percent target share to Hubbard's 7 percent target share the rest of the way. So Hubbard is a guy who
Starting point is 05:47:35 really the team, the same coaching staff, has already shown us that that's not the role they're going to use him in. Perhaps that changes in week one. But so far, we do have a very, very small sample, the three games that Jonathan Brooks was healthy for and overlapped with Chuba Hubbard in 2024. And it was Brooks who was targeted on 30 percent of his routes in those games. And that's how you become a quote unquote hit in this range and surpass your ADP expectations is by earning targets since especially in PPR leagues historically targets are worth a point and a half compared to a carry which is only worth a point. So the fact that we were projecting Brooks to have that extra out to get there, I still like Brooks. But again, if he does make it to the fourth round,
Starting point is 05:48:22 which I don't think you will in home leagues and the high stakes leagues, that's probably a fade for me. but I think Brooks is fine. I still like him there. Yeah, that's something at the running back position. I think I pay attention to more than anywhere else is like has your coaching staff given up on you previously? Or have you gone into it? I always think about this whenever there's a,
Starting point is 05:48:44 there's a college backup that outplays the five-star guy and ends up being the thing. And now he's in the league. And I'm like, yeah, that guy knows how to outplay the dude in front of him and show off in front of his. coach. He's a coach's best friend kind of guy. Give him half a year. It's going to be annoying. He's going to take over that backfield or at least be the lead lead back in it. And with the Panthers already showing last year that they were so quick to go to Rico Dado. I don't even, I don't
Starting point is 05:49:12 remember if it was even an injury to Chuba. It was. He missed two games. And in those two games, Rico Dato became Walter Payton. Still don't know how considering the year prior, he was a guy that Mike McCarthy said, actually, what if we signed Dalvin Cook and start him instead until Dowdell finally the last month of the season said, okay, enough of this. Just give me the Rock, brother, and get out of the way. Yeah, I mean, I'll never forget that. I think it was. I believe it was a prime time game, right?
Starting point is 05:49:43 Yeah, the seven plus minute bleed out that the Panthers pulled on the Cowboys last year with Rico Dowdle. It was like, all right, could I get a couple of. possessions even this thing up and it was like nope game's actually over panthers are going to have one drive it's going to be behind rico dowdell and you will not touch the ball again cowboys and that was that's my lasting memory of last year's cowboy season once i saw that i was like this this shit is cooked we are extremely jover um but okay yeah too and what about tudan how are you feeling about about our good friend, Bayshel, who in the fantasy community is like,
Starting point is 05:50:27 we're all collectively, like, raising him up to the light. Like, please, please become the feature back. And then, like, his coaching staff, you know, I have to listen to CoachSpeak or get to listen to CoachSpeak index with Pat every week. And they are not saying, like, anything along the lines of, like, he's our guy. Like, he's the number one. Can't wait to get his ass going. So the way I talk about basal tune is that regardless of the results at the end of the year, right or wrong, this is the kind of player and this kind of range, but I will target 10 out of 10 times.
Starting point is 05:51:04 Last year, Jacksonville's offensive line, which honestly didn't improve much, finished 25th and yards before contact for carry. That is an offensive line stat for anyone listening who's not aware of it. Basically, the running back every time he touches the ball then. how many yards does he gain on average before he's hit. Jacksonville's offensive line did not create the space for either Travis E.T.N. who has since moved on to the Saints or Bachel Tudin. But Bacial Tudin still finished six the Mongwell running backs and success rate, including punching in four of his six carries from inside the five for touchdowns.
Starting point is 05:51:38 Tudin recalled two years ago did test at the combine as the league's most athletic running back ever before Mike Washington with the Raiders, then unseated him for that label. So I just want to zoom out after Tutin was basically injured and playing behind Travis E.TN for his entire rookie year. I want to zoom out and remember that Tudin still earned a 10% target share throughout his career in college. And now he does get this role without ETN moving forward.
Starting point is 05:52:07 So at cost for this kind of explosive athletic profile, I'm going to take that chance. And I understand that it may not hit, but it's the kind of players I want to chase because historically, when they do hit, they're winners. Yeah, Pat wrote a giant long thing on sophomore running backs and the history of, I think every single, he had quoted every single BBM champion had a huge hit from the sophomore running back group. And Tudin qualifies for that.
Starting point is 05:52:41 Brooks is obviously, I guess, into his third year. You know the sneaky one that always falls that I just take blindly because it's like, like you said, you should blindly chase second year receiving running backs. That's RJ Harvey. Yeah. He's always there. And I understand on the surface this situation doesn't look good. I'm not even trying to sell him to you. But I do take him because, again, if we're just considering this to be stock market prices, it's at a low point despite what he showed us.
Starting point is 05:53:13 that's the kind of player that typically breaks out, especially when it comes at a discount. This point in the fantasy season, I've just kind of been a sponge, and I haven't had to put my opinions, like, behind dollars necessarily. And so the Denver, I'm still working out the Denver backfield. I think Harvey is a good call. I think he showed enough last year.
Starting point is 05:53:43 to i heard i heard seagull talking about this other day uh harvey and henderson i think had uh 200 plus points i don't know what scaling he was using the 200 plus points from a rookie running back in a muddy backfield and nobody is excited about them yeah either one that never happens um and so the denver backfield is what i'm still like feeling through because if If they really want to work RJ Harvey like that and give him enough work to where I think he can pay off and even sneak into like a RB2 or V1.5 kind of smash for you. What the hell are we doing, Jonah Coleman? Why do you need to bring J.K. Dobbins back? And I think it's, I think I just have to get past the entire idea that Sean Payton has just a running back fetish.
Starting point is 05:54:38 And that's like his thing. He wants seven different running backs. He wants everything to look muddy, and that's just the way he's always done it. But it still drive me a little crazy, the Denver backfield. And I haven't declared yet. I'm at the intersection, and I got to pick. I'm going to make it muddier for you later when we get to our sleepers. I got more to talk about the Broncos backfield.
Starting point is 05:55:00 Okay, okay. All right, let's get into positions. What we're going to do, I think that'll be of most and best use for everyone is I've got shows later in the week. So you'll hear all my bad takes later in the week of guys that I'm targeting at each range. And guys, I'm hard fading. And if you've listened to the past years, I think one of my greatest tricks, one of my greatest tools I've ever had in fantasy football is just straight up finding the guys for whatever reason, whatever causation, I don't believe in and eliminating, like,
Starting point is 05:55:34 this collection of dudes off my board at cost. everything we say we could just dot dot at cost tonight and probably the rest of the week but i feel like that's giving me such an advantage and it took me a while to learn it to be like oh this guy just because adp says this guy's here i have to like uh adp enforce or whatever no no i just like my player pool like the answer pool is like this it's like actually i'm actually only going to take these guys if you know my know my game um so everyone will hear my targets they'll hear my fades uh later in the week when i do uh you know a merit with Chuck and fits. But Daigle's here. He's the best in the business. I wanted to get him
Starting point is 05:56:14 on to help y'all to give you some targets, to give you some fades at each position. We're already talking running back. So if you're cool jumping into some running backs, up and down the board, wherever you go, I'll follow. Wherever you want to go, give me a dude, tout them, sell me on him, Daigle. I know you got some good ones. I will start in the second round because recall that last year everyone wanted to take Seyquan Barkley number one overall
Starting point is 05:56:47 coming off a historic 482 touch season he then plummets finishes the RV 15 in points per game averages literally 7.7 fewer points per game as a dud at cost and this year because of that he has sunk to the second round but you should not allow Kevin Petulow last year's play caller for the Eagles,
Starting point is 05:57:08 like make you ignore Sequin Barclay and the Eagles altogether, given that it's going to be an entirely different scheme under Sean Mannion. Just a quick sample, for example. Last year's Eagles were under center at the third lowest rate in the entire league. Their first play in training camp, per all reports, was under center, 12 personnel tossed to Seyquon Barkley. Everything we've seen from the past, This includes Jalen Hertz last year,
Starting point is 05:57:37 finishing career lows and scramble rate and carries per game. It's going to change entirely. Now, having said that, don't ask me what happens whenever they play the Seahawks and Texans in weeks 15 and 16 of the fantasy playoffs. The point I'm trying to make is that all of the Eagles are at least going to get you there if they were to fail in the fantasy playoffs. And that includes Seypuan Barclay.
Starting point is 05:57:56 2024, that record season. He was first. The Eagles offensive line with Lane Johnson fully healthy was first in that staff I mentioned earlier, yards before contact for carry. Last year, because Lane Johnson was injured basically for the entire season, they sunk to 23rd, and Sequin Barkley was no longer an explosive player. But again, that is now baked into this discount where its range of outcomes includes, as he already shown us, outscoring Christian McCaffrey, who goes a full round, if not further, earlier than Barclay. So I do think Seekwon is one of the best values in the
Starting point is 05:58:28 second round, and at that first second round turn. Yeah. First year, Mannion, obviously, and the healthy offensive line, it doesn't take like a rocket scientist to go, you want to keep your job, you want to establish yourself as a premier play caller in the league that might lead to head coaching down the road. What's your greatest strength? What's the thing that works on this Eagles offense nine times out of ten? Okay, it's Seekwon behind Lane Johnson. it's Sequin running stretch left. Like it's, it seems pretty obvious.
Starting point is 05:59:09 I think the thing that people are probably hesitant on is did the down year last year, did it coincide with like a drop off, right? Because so many touches, does he ever get back there? But this feels like classic, it feels like a classic after too many touches, Derek Henry slide. and then that next year everyone's got that bad taste in their mouth
Starting point is 05:59:33 and dude just comes back like Robocop and you're like I got off the Derek Henry train way too early so I like that call and I think it's one that most people aren't going to be into
Starting point is 05:59:49 because they either had Sequin last year and that's a funny thing in fantasy isn't it? If I had the guy in the last 12 months he didn't deliver, I'm like, not happening. Half my job is showing back up in March and just seeing who underperformed and then saying you should be higher on this guy because recency bias is what causes these guys to
Starting point is 06:00:14 sink. Yeah. Christian McCaffrey was a into first round player last year, even though I was arguing he should be drafted over Saquan Barkley for the range of outcomes. And we saw what happened. It's kind of the opposite this year where Saquan Barclay now took McCaffrey's place in ADP. And you could argue the same thing where we've already seen the range of outcomes. Barclay could easily outscore McCabe. Yeah. And the other weird thing that's going on with the
Starting point is 06:00:37 Eagles offense is obviously the AJ Brown trade, which everyone knew was coming, but then they didn't really have a backfill. Like I like Mackay Lemon. I'm taking a lot of Mackay Lemon late. I don't expect anything from like Mackay Lemon like for two months. And he's been consistently injured in preseason. So I'm like every time they drop back, if it's not, you know, getting four seconds for Devontas Smith to do something and sneaky-ass Dallas Goddard, who's always there and always delivering. I don't think throwing the ball is going to be the answer for them. I don't, I don't, I don't see a way in which that is a plus plus EPA type situation consistently for that offense. And they're going to go, you know what works? That guy over there. That guy over there works
Starting point is 06:01:21 no matter how we get him the ball. And I think he could see a backfield share, a per game, touch thing that's going to rival like A chain, right? And that's obviously going to be a better offense. And they're going to score more points than the dolphins. Completely agree. Who's your, who's your next guy in the running back room? All right. Let's tell a story with this one, because I need to explain why this group of players,
Starting point is 06:01:49 why I'm high on the middle round running backs like Remandrey Stevenson, David Montgomery, Bachel Tootin, Jonathan Brooks. And it's because it's what the story has told. us the last couple years. So for the last two seasons, running backs have stayed healthy. Thus, the top 12 finishers and points per game at running back. So top 12 guys because 12 teams, the guys were talking about who are actual RB-1s, no matter their situation, whoever drafts them in your league, because they've been healthy, their average draft position, their ADP has been accurate. Javante Williams, for example, last year who finishes the RB12, is the only RB1 to be drafted
Starting point is 06:02:25 outside the first three rounds in the past couple of years. But the RB.B. 13 through 24 in points per game. So the RB2 that you start every single week has averaged a sixth round 80p. And that's because we overestimate and are not good at picking the next group of running backs once the top 12 elite guys have been insulated at the back of the first and second round. So that's why I'm not necessarily high on Javante Williams, Travis E.TN, Kairn, Kyron Williams. You can talk about these players as individuals in their individual situations. We're talking about bucket drafting, though, and big picture views.
Starting point is 06:03:03 I just told you the hit rates come from the sixth round on. And because of that, I am high on those other intimate individuals I mentioned first. Also, Jalen Warren, I want to add here. Aaron Rogers, the past two years, but crossed the Jets and the Steelers, has ranked seventh and second in targeting his running backs. That is an Aaron Rogers stat, not an offensive stat, because we know at this date of his career, he does not want to get hit. is getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible.
Starting point is 06:03:32 Kenneth Gainwell, who was comically voted as the team's MVP by all the players last year and finished with a career high target share because he played with Rogers. Kenneth Gainwell has sensed signed with the Bucks in free agency. And so I would like to note that there were 289 plays where Jalen Warren was on the field without Kenneth Gainwell last year, and Warren's target share literally doubled. I already told you how target share catches give our players multiple outs. especially if they're going later. And so Jalen warns a player,
Starting point is 06:04:02 I truly think can compete as a fringe RB1 and just be a hit at his range. Yeah, this is, for everyone watching, this is a bit of a structural hack for building your team. I remember, I think we have Gretch to blame for running back dead zone. Yeah. And I remember the first.
Starting point is 06:04:22 It's always Gretch, Sean Siegel, or Fancy Dush, who everyone doesn't remember, but Fancy Dush was the co-CEO of RotoViz.com. who then was so sharp with his modeling for fantasy football in the 90s, he took it and turned it into a real estate model and got out of fantasy football entirely with it. What a genius. What a legend. But I remember it was the year Gretsch was on CBS for a while. And he introduced the running back dead zone term.
Starting point is 06:04:51 And I was like, oh, that's, you know, that's an interesting turn of phrase. And I just never bought into it. I was like, yeah, that's cool. because I think it was like that year. I don't even know if it was that year or the year after, but I'm always like, not to brag, but I feel like that's my superpower is looking at these running backs that go running back like 12 to 36 and telling you which one's different.
Starting point is 06:05:13 Like the Bucky year, I was like, yeah, that one's different. The Breeze Hall years, I'm like, yeah, that one's different. This year, like, all those dude you mentioned, maybe I don't love Ramandre, but I will take some Romandre. just because and I have a lot of belief in Henderson I don't know how that shakes out and I don't know how
Starting point is 06:05:36 I think Henderson in the year is going to make Remandre look kind of like silly for playing that much but then I did watch the playoffs last year I did watch how they used Remandre which was every snap over everything dude everything all of it and Treveon might have been hurt might have had a concussion I can't remember
Starting point is 06:05:54 David Montgomery. That one, I'm kind of like, everyone stopped talking about Dave Montgomery, please. Like, I want all the David Montgomery. I can possibly get at this. I watched this team turn Joe Mixin into a capital T thing for a whole year, just stubbornly.
Starting point is 06:06:18 They turned Woody Marks into a thing, not being efficient at all or a good running back. And now I know people will go, oh that Texans offensive line blah blah blah blah and I feel like one of the tricks I pull is like I do listen to a lot of fantasy stuff but I also listen to a lot of real football stuff
Starting point is 06:06:34 like I really want to be plugged in so I'll listen to the athletic football show I'll listen to a handful of different things and that Texans offensive line is not the Texans offensive line of old they got two guards that are absolute meathead brawlers
Starting point is 06:06:49 that are unlike anything they've had in a long time and I think that that Texans' offensive line is going to be average. They're going to need to control the pace and control how many first down, you know, just they have to ice the ball as much as possible and let that defense keep everyone below like 12 points. And David Montgomery is the type of dude that can do it. And, you know, I think the only thing I worry about with him is he hasn't had that many touches in a long time. And does he hold up after that 200 touch? Does this be a body start breaking down. He start playing a little softer. But Dave Montgomery to me is like,
Starting point is 06:07:28 he's the one right now where I'm pointing at it. And I'm like, can everyone just like, let's chill, guys? Let me give him much as New Montgomery. I completely agree with you. I get actually offended whenever people talk about his receiving profile and then get excited about Giovante Williams, Kyle Williams, that group of guys. Because if you look, and this is why I get offended because anyone can just do their job and then give actual analysis. If you look, he was targeted on a higher rate of his routes for more yards per route run than all those guys going in the second round. Brise Hall and Jeremiah Love are the exceptions. But we know those are true athletes who's receiving outlooks they've had going all the way back to college and for
Starting point is 06:08:13 Briss Hall so far every season throughout his career. But Dave Montgomery actually has been a better receiver than the other guys that people are saying are going to compete as RB1s. Like what if you just wait three rounds for the guy with a better profile than the guy, you're drafting around elite wide receivers? And so I agree with you. I've mentioned that whole group of running backs. We even have flag plans. We have icons now on the rankings unestablished a run, just to highlight and give further
Starting point is 06:08:41 context within our ranking since we are a company of like 15 voices who all have different opinions because we come to our own conclusions. But David Montgomery is actually a flag plant for me, and it goes as deep as the discussion I had with you earlier. It's not even really about the individual player, although I love the situation. It's really about I am shying away and staying away from that group of second and third round running backs and instead going and waiting for Brooks Montgomery Tutin. The list goes on.
Starting point is 06:09:09 Here, watch this shit. I had this prepped because I was looking at it earlier. Bam! Look at that. There they are. There they are. I've even given you my flagplants, a couple of them. They go flag plant.
Starting point is 06:09:22 They got everybody's Twitter avatar, apparently. You would not believe, by the way. You would not believe how much work was needed to go into little JPEGs like that. I'm out of tech as I'm like dragging my laptop. It's a Saturday beautiful 75 degree afternoon in Chicago. My girlfriend and I are to brewery. And I'm tethering my laptop, talking to five different people on Slack on the IT team, just trying to get this shit to work.
Starting point is 06:09:49 You would not believe it. It looks good. It does look clean. It came out really well. I'm glad you did. Here, I don't want to give away all your rankings for those free loaders out there. Go pay for the rest. But they're cool.
Starting point is 06:10:02 They got the callouts because it is. I mean, everyone has their own voice. I like that about ETR. Everyone has their own voice. And it's like, y'all could spend. Sometimes I hear you on with Adam and, and Evan and I'm like, I know Dagle wants to say more, but this is gonna be a 20 minute conversation
Starting point is 06:10:21 if he starts picking minutes. Editing yourself is one of the greatest things you can do in like my experience. I edit myself, I have a lot to say on every player, but we try to keep it clean. Yeah, absolutely. But yeah, go sign up for the ETR ranks. Those are the half PPR updated very, very consistently
Starting point is 06:10:44 for you all. And you can see all of the Degel's floor. flag plant players. All right, I'll follow your lead. Do you got any more running backs or do you want jump position? I know what people want. They want the last round guy. Everyone wants to know who to stash.
Starting point is 06:10:57 So you got to give the people what they want. And I'll give you that muddy Broncos backfield situation. And Jonah Coleman, who they actually traded up for. They made a concerted effort to move up for in the draft and grab him. So what I've been doing, because I already told you about blindly taking RJ Hard. and just betting on that and we can always drop him if necessary. I've been taking both and a lot of drafts because Coleman goes a lot later than his profile suggests he should anyhow.
Starting point is 06:11:27 And so I take Harvey, the receiving guys, Harvey and Coleman, because Coleman already shown us, he was an early breakout. That's what I look forward. I'm doing rookie work among a lot of other things is how early were you good in college? Casey Concepcion was another one who was an elite talent immediately as an 18 year old. But Jonah Coleman at 20 years old, average 6.8 yards per carry. And then the resume beyond that, the past three years, 80 catches on 90 targets. And then last year finished second only to Jeremiah Love, the number three overall pick and yards per route run among running backs in this class.
Starting point is 06:12:02 So Coleman also profiles as a guy who could very easily be used on receiving downs and thus usurp Harvey. So I want to grab both. but Coleman is the cheaper one and fits that favorite word that everyone used as a true last round sleeper. You stash and see where it goes. Yeah, that's one of my favorite things to do is if there's a muddy backfield in which both players are getting kind of cheaper because they're dragging each other down, or even if there's three of them dragging them down. And this one obviously has J.K. Dobbins in the mix who bless his little heart, got us like six weeks of playable running back.
Starting point is 06:12:40 play last year in a FFPC made of it. But yeah, finding that backfield in which everyone's going like, I don't know. Like I just explained earlier and it's really messing up their ADP and particularly probably like fifth, six round for the first guy
Starting point is 06:12:58 and then like 10th on for the second dude. And I think that's if you have, that's like a work backwards scenario. Like knowing I can get Harvey you whenever I want it in the fifth or sixth if he's still there and then knowing I can get Coleman you're guaranteed at least running back production from a you're running back to three spot and you can bank on that and you can build out your draft earlier and take some swings that maybe you wouldn't otherwise and that's one of my favorite things to do too uh and I feel like whenever I
Starting point is 06:13:31 have like a really strong read on a player in a I'll always remember Rehoster is my best example Most are years when he was popping off. You know, the 20 touchdown year, I didn't think he's got 20 touchdowns, but I was like, dude, we're getting most at last round. And I'm just going to act like he's an RB2. I'm just going to play it like he's an RB2 that I can get in the last round. So I'm going to build the rest of the team out like best player available at wide receiver, tight-in quarterback, and just bank on having an RV2 in the last round that
Starting point is 06:14:09 no one else sees right now. And whenever you have a read like that on something, I think it gives you such an advantage and your structural build. So that's a fun one. That's a fun one to get both. Don't do the idiot thing that I, that I'm doing, which is like trying to split the hairs on a backfield like that.
Starting point is 06:14:28 Like just get the one that's underpriced and then get the one that's severely underpriced. And they both go at such different portions of the draft that's really easy to do so. And Jonah Coleman instead goes around the guys that I like a stashers as well. Tank Biggsby, Ray Davis, Kaelin Black, the list goes on. But all those individuals still have to have an injury ahead of them for us to them plug them in, where Joe McCleman can win this job outright. Yeah. Yeah. Awesome. All right. You want to jump to wide receivers? Let's do it. All right. Cool. Man, I was, I got a, I got a couple.
Starting point is 06:15:09 confess some things, John. I was I was fully into converting my religion to piss boy religion right about the time that it really didn't work out for me. Like I was in if, you know, if you watched it before, you know what a you know what a piss boy is. But it's someone that just, you know, we'll just mop the board with about three or four straight wide receiver picks because you think that's the edge. And I guess if you draft anything right, any position, if you nail any position, It can be an edge for you. Yeah. But I feel like I was ahead of the curve and getting really into,
Starting point is 06:15:48 I'd rather my third wide receiver be better than your second whatever. Like that was kind of the play for a while. And then last year, and I read a lot about it, and I have my own theories, but it's a lot of wide receiver twos died because they weren't getting the route participation. a lot of times because a lot of teams were running so much 12 and 13.
Starting point is 06:16:15 And so that's a real football tie-in that has an effect on fantasy. It's like whenever shell coverage started fucking up to passing games. And so it really across the board portfolios weren't great whenever this happened for me.
Starting point is 06:16:34 But I think it can always just like slam right back. and teams can figure out something in a passing game that a defense is incapable of covering within a season. And so I'm fascinated to see which guys you are in on at the wide receiver position because there's obviously the dudes at the top and I'm doing everything I can to get your chase, your puka, your JSN. And after that, I'm like,
Starting point is 06:17:08 Like, I'm kind of chilling for a while. I'm very nervous about the guys before I get to like the wattle range. And so I guess give me, throw some guys, throw a guy at me that you're really confident in. I like how we did the last conversation. So on the fly, let's do this guy who should have first round value, but everyone can check in the second round and then go from there. So let's start with none other than Justin Jefferson, the best wide receiver in league. Until last year when he played with J.J. McCarthy, he had never finished lower than the wide receiver five in catchable target rate. And think about the quarterbacks that Justin Jefferson has played with throughout his career, including Carson Wentz, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullins.
Starting point is 06:18:01 That's how bad of a professional football player J.G. McCarthy was. that he finished 58th in accurate target rate, thus dragged Justin Jefferson to the depths of hell with the career worst 11.9 points per game. Now we are removing Kyler Murray, who regardless of what you think about Murray, and that stat I just mentioned of efficient and accurate targets, he finished 15th last year,
Starting point is 06:18:27 which is above average. My argument has been all offseason. If you even get league average play from Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson's right up there next to Jacks, and Smith and Jigba again, and yet he goes at the first second round turn, if not later. So it's really easy for me to just say, hey, league average quarterback play is going to get all the Vikings there once again. And I want to be high on Justin Jefferson. Yeah. That's one, uh, I'm fully on board with. I haven't had a lot of picks in that range,
Starting point is 06:18:55 um, which would be, I guess, like early first, like first fourish picks where you can come back to you in the second where he's, where's ADP's sitting. Yeah. Um, yeah. The Kyler thing, I 1,000% remember the days of Kyler making New Copkins a top five wide receiver, even though his skill set probably wasn't there at the time and just propping them up. And I think it's, you know, I think it's going to look night and day from J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer. I forgot about Max Brasmer too. How can you forget the Thanksgiving? I think it was the Thanksgiving or Christmas Day Brosmer game,
Starting point is 06:19:39 which the only game on. Remember his first career start, though, was also against Mike McDonald. It was just the most obvious, son. Get out there to the wolves and we'll figure it out next week because this week we don't have a choice. Yeah, and he like third pass, like he throws the ball backwards.
Starting point is 06:19:55 Yep. Like, it is so good, dude. I was like, everyone's like, I don't know, man, Brosmer's got something. And I'm like, the fuck? Like, what are you all talking? You must be watching his brother somewhere because this ain't this ain't it. He threw more picks than touchdowns at like Minnesota.
Starting point is 06:20:11 Like what are we talking about? Like, yeah, I guess I don't know. But it's one of those quarterback things that are really funny where like people really like them in the room. And like they're basically just saying like he's going to be a future coach. Whatever this stuff happens, the Cowboys have like a long history of these dudes. They're like, I don't know. I really like him. And it's like for what?
Starting point is 06:20:31 Like for assistant quarterbacks coach in two years? but I like Jet. I like Jets. That's a great call. I'm trying to unwash my dynasty brain from what he did to me last year on all the shares I had to it. But again, not his fault. Not his fault at all. So love that call.
Starting point is 06:20:52 Who do you want to jump into next? Another reason I'm pushing back, continue to push back on that second, third round tier of running backs, is because I think winning the wide receiver position in this range instead, it's how you're ultimately going to win your league. You know, instead of those running backs grabbing Nico Collins, who now has an even higher target share without Jaden Higgins on the field for the rest of the year, logically. Chris Oliva, now that Jordan Tyson is expected to miss half the season. Devontes Smith without A.J. Brown.
Starting point is 06:21:24 And then after that, we reached that great wall that I'm trying to get two or three guys from, that includes who you mentioned earlier, Jalen Waddle, Laddell, Laddman. Kanky, Zayflowers, and my favorite of the bunch that I want to talk about here, Ameca Gbuka. Through his first five starts, Egbuka averaged 20 and a half points as fantasy's wide receiver three, and he was sixth in the league in yards per route run in that span. From that point forward, though, he suffers an injury. Baker Mayfield never misses a game despite playing through literally five separate injuries.
Starting point is 06:21:57 And so then we can zoom out and say from that point forward when Ibuka became the wide receiver 57 in points per game and you literally couldn't even start him in the second half of the year. What happened was we go back to that catchable target rate stat because in the first five weeks, Baker Mayfield was 15th and catchable target rate. After that, 135th for a Mecca Buka, literally off the face of the planet and a worse passer than Deshawn Watson even was. So all we have to do is say, now we're taking Mike Evans off the field. We are giving that target share, a 31% target share, by the way, that Abuka averaged last year when he was on the field without Mike Evans.
Starting point is 06:22:38 And we're giving it all to him with both of these players healthy and the spite in Baker Mayfield's heart in a contract year. It's just a player that when we talk about the cliche of this guy is the next Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. In a way, Abuca already showed us he is Jackson's Fifth and Jigba. And now he's a second year player who, who has this opportunity. So that's an individual I don't want to miss out on.
Starting point is 06:23:01 That's the name I was going to bring up because it feels a lot like JSN. Yeah. Before he popped, obviously became, you know, offensive player of the year. Yeah, it's funny because, like, things don't, you don't carry stuff over year to year. You don't carry how bad the bucks looked
Starting point is 06:23:20 and how much it struggled. And Baker, obviously, playing with like a torn shoulder muscle. Right. And I remember the play. We were heavily invested in Nabucca last year. And it was, oh, my God, wheels up. And then it was, oh, this all got real bad. And everybody's hurt.
Starting point is 06:23:38 And including the offensive line. Like, it just got so bad, so quick. But, I mean, I'm right back in on Igbuka and Baker. And Bucky. And the entire backfield for the bucks, to be clear. I think with a healthy offensive line when their center is not playing left tackle, and Mike Evans, who is a notorious every red zone target, 25% target share for 10 straight years type of dude is out of there. Man, it'd be silly.
Starting point is 06:24:16 I can't see many outcomes in which Egbuka doesn't light it up without having another serious injury. Um, and you know, the injury stuff, like, I've played this long enough. Like I, I've had McCaffrey the year he was injured in the preseason, right? Like, that shit happens. Uh, you just have to draft the best team that you think has the highest, highest number outcome point total wise. Um, so like Bucca's a great call. I love that. I don't like these already hurts.
Starting point is 06:24:49 Um, I hope that gets cleared up really quickly, uh, or you figure it's out a way to deal with it. Um, waddle in that range is a guy that I, another, it's, it feels like the Dave Montgomery thing, where it's like new team. Yeah, everyone makes the jokes about waddle hitting the blue tent every single game. But it's a team that is in need of that type of wide receiver so freaking bad, uh, over the years. And they've just never found it. Um, and lad with Mike, uh, Mike McDaniel is another one.
Starting point is 06:25:25 where I'm like, yeah, he did it with Waddle, and this guy's pretty similar to that. Whenever they did it in Miami, went for 100, 100 balls his rookie season. So I love that range of wide receivers. It's a giant wall. Like I like all of them. We didn't even touch on, you know,
Starting point is 06:25:44 Tederoa McBillan, who pro-bott is Mike Evans coming into college going into his second year now, who's actually been, who's run 50% of his routes from the slot. That's something that didn't do last year to get him lined up against worst. defenders so that could change his outlook entirely. Luther Burden, who's now the
Starting point is 06:25:59 wide receiver one under Ben Freakin Johnson. It's the great wall of wide receivers, which again then pushes back on so many other players. And like my fades list that includes some of the guys I mentioned, it's really all because this is the group of what instead that I want to draft. Well, I want to ask you about one guy that's not quite in that group, but I think could jump in there pretty quickly if he does, he does whenever he's healthy and christian watson um he's he's like a nobody would no two drafts he'll do it the same kind of guy uh to me like he and he and golden are i think their adp is like all right the ones that when i saw last night in one of my home leagues uh like they're touching
Starting point is 06:26:43 like christian watson and matthew golden's adp was like touching and i was like that's nuts i was like that's absolutely insane uh I've kind of turned into a Watson guy just because I think the, or at least in Dynasty, I should preface. I don't know how many redraft shares I'll have of Watson, but in Dynasty, I'm like, everyone's been willing to sell him for like late seconds and thirds like that because they're tired of the experience that he brings.
Starting point is 06:27:13 But how are you feeling about Christian Watson? We didn't plan this, but Christian Watson was next on my list. Oh, shit. As we take this journey of, you know, a value in the, second round than my favorite among that great wall of wide receivers and then a six to eighth round a confident mid round guy that's christian watson for me because he already showed us last year when he returned from injury in week eight he's better than that adp he was six and yards per route
Starting point is 06:27:40 run he led the packers with a 29% target share as the wide receiver 19 in fantasy when he returned and now there's not even a rotation around him since both romeo dubs was dealt to the patriots and Dontavian Wicks went to Philadelphia. It is only Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jaden Reed. Last year, I already told you, didn't draft Matthew Golden that cost because of the profile. This year, the ADP, in some cases, and in home leagues, the ADP is lower. And so without a rotation, I don't mind taking that chance. But Matthew Golden is not Christian Freakin Watson, who has already shown us.
Starting point is 06:28:16 He can rival top 12 status and the rare times that he's healthy. So I think he's one of the easiest clicks in his range. Yeah, and I'm a huge Tucker Kraft fan. Like, I think that dude is like- That's my favorite tied in in the league is Tucker Kraft. Yeah, he is like. He's just George Kettle. He's a carbon company.
Starting point is 06:28:32 Yeah, exactly. If you know anything about me, I love George Kittle. And I watched Tucker Kraft. I'm like, yeah, uh-huh. It's the same picture. He might start slow. And I think he's going to be a huge part of their offense at some point in the season. I think down the stretch it's going to be like Packers 9 and 4 and here comes this offense is finally catching and they stopped all this crazy rotation shit that they were doing last year.
Starting point is 06:29:03 Bo Melton and like all these nonsense. Savion Williams wide receivers getting 10% routes and 20% routes and they've just solidified it with Reed, Watson, and Golden. And oh yeah, now they're going to hit you over the head with Tucker Kraft. a hammer. He's going to start working in and building up his route participation. So I bet he's probably going to start slow. I mean, and that injury is a real deal. But I think that's enough runway for pretty much all of those wide receivers to find their way early in the season. And, you know, I don't know what's going to happen with the judge Jacob's situation. It's, you know, it's we're far enough in it where I don't expect anything to happen.
Starting point is 06:29:46 But I think the path to the Packers being as good as people expect the Packers to be is through those three wide receivers and late in the season Tucker Craft. I think it can't be any other way. Their defense is not going to be that good. And Mike is not going to be back for a while. And I think it's, I think it has to be that if they're going to be the team that everyone thinks and challenge for the NFC North. And Christian Watson is going to be maybe the biggest piece of that.
Starting point is 06:30:14 it's what they wanted to be two last year whenever their right tackle Zach Tom was available because he basically was in and out of the lineup all year. But when he was on the field, Jordan Love was third in EPA for dropback as one of the most accurate quarterbacks the entire league. But again, when you lose both him and Tucker Kraft, who has an immense part of their blocking scheme, that's when the offense just really cratered all together down the stretch. Yeah. Yeah, it got pretty ugly.
Starting point is 06:30:42 but i mean i i i know people saw like final month caleb williams last year and were like mesmerized and i would love to run some tape back of jordan love whenever he's cooking and be like that's kind of the same shit guys uh he can do that too it's just you know uh the last year was a ground and pound and everybody getting hurt so um awesome well that was a The lucky coincidence. I thought we've got to get on a tangent and Christian watching was the next guy on your list. So fantastic.
Starting point is 06:31:16 Did you have a late guy, super late guy? Or did you? I'll give you one more late guy. I'll wrap it into a whole conversation here because this is not even for the home league people unless you're in, you know, 15th or 18th round home league where you have deep stashes, then you can go this way. This is more for the FFPC individuals who have since let this player's ADP fall mightily. but I want to highlight Jackson Bill's schedule to start
Starting point is 06:31:42 because I have as much confidence in Liam Cohen as the next great play caller as anyone, but the Jaguars quietly open up through their week seven by against the Browns, the Broncos, the Bengals, the Patriots, Eagles, and Texans. That is a murderous row of defense. And even when you think about the Bengals, the one thing that all of those defenses have in common
Starting point is 06:32:05 to open the season is that they have shadow corners that shut down opposing wide receivers. Collectively, that group of defenses allowed 41 yards per game to opposing wide receiver ones. And this is why I'm not drafting Brian Thomas. I truly believe he's just going to be dropped in your home league because he's going to be unusable the first seven weeks against that run of players. But because of that, the last round option I have who's not even going to start on offense to begin the year is Travis Hunter. Again, we talk about volatility and upside with our last round picks
Starting point is 06:32:40 understanding that 99% of them, we're going to cut and find a stash on the waiver wire anyhow. But you need to zoom out and remember who Travis Hunter was. His snap rate over his last five games before he suffered that seasoning knee injury and practice over the team's buy week. His snap rate increased for five consecutive games. The last time we saw him against the Rams, he earned 14 targets for 100 yards in a touchdown,
Starting point is 06:33:03 had finally emerged as an NFL wide receiver that they had confidence in. And then because they added Jacobi Myers afterwards, the trade deadline, and we never saw Travis Hunter overlap with him, Brian Thomas, and Parker Washington. Now the assumption is, although volatile, the assumption is Hunter's range of outcomes does not include playing at all. And I don't believe that's the case at all considering that going back to even in high school, remember, this has been the best player to walk on every single field he's ever been on. He was the number one overall recruit coming out of high school. He was the number one player and a Heisman trophy winner in college, including the award for the best quarterback in the entire nation, too. This guy, all he's ever done is be the best at football. And so now we're only one year removed after a month breakout to end his season, suggesting that he can't beat out or eventually play over Brian Thomas,
Starting point is 06:33:55 who's solely gotten worse every season or a possession receiver like Jacoby Myers. I'm not buying it. And I'm especially not buying it as a last round pick with upside. So I like Travis Hunter as a last round stash. Last night, home league. Guess where Brian Thomas Jr. went? But head of Christian Watson. No, no, no, no.
Starting point is 06:34:22 Other direction. Some reason, like, end of 16. I'm just- In of 16, really? Okay, well, I was like, everything I just said, I'll take Brian Thomas, the 16th round. I did. I was the guy that took him.
Starting point is 06:34:37 I was like, I don't, I don't, what's happening? Like, he's not dead. That's what you're like, I don't have players. I hate ADP, so sure, I'll take this guy. Exactly. But yeah, I mean, the Jaguars thing is, is fascinating. Because I don't, I don't know if I've ever seen this collection of dudes on a team with Parker, Washington. He's one of the highest risers that exist.
Starting point is 06:35:02 I mean, he is, you know, molten lava at this point where it's, I don't even know what to know what round because I'm not getting close. Brian Thomas Jr., who was the wide receiver two or three, his rookie season or whatever it was. Jacoby Myers, just a career professional, like pretty good backstop wide receiver late in rounds. And then obviously the second overall pick, as you just mentioned with Travis Hunter and his entire portfolio
Starting point is 06:35:34 that he brings with him. And then people are also drafting Britain Strange, the tight end. And man, it is, I don't think I've ever seen a collection of dudes getting drafted like that where a quarterback is not like the quarterback. Like it's not my homes. You know what I mean? Like that just, if we're all saying like all these things are going to happen and pay off ADP, then Trevor Lawrence is going to be a top five quarterback.
Starting point is 06:36:03 And I don't believe that. And I'll never believe that. So some of these things are wrong. Some of these things are absolutely wrong. And maybe the BTJ one. If you just take that off the board and he's like a 70, 80 target, 50 catch dude, but really explosive. Maybe scores some cool touchdowns.
Starting point is 06:36:26 You can balance it then. You can balance the spreadsheet then a little bit. I guess the Parker Washington thing also is driving me crazy. because I'm just like I can't get there Like you I can't get there I do think he's good
Starting point is 06:36:41 He's a guy who Coaches kept around Usually what happens When these players who play Very limited downs And even then are good when they play But still do not earn full playing time Usually what happens
Starting point is 06:36:54 It's something within practice And the coaches are just saying Pigeonhold them to the wrong role So Parker Washington doesn't play To the second half of the year But when he shared the field With Brian Tom Thomas and Jacoby Myers in the second half, he led the team with a 31% target share.
Starting point is 06:37:08 Like he proved he's the one who earns the targets there. Having said that, I also don't get to much of him because one, I told you about the schedule. I think that's also going to leave an opportunity for us to all trade for the Jaguars low in week seven. So that's how I'm going to get my Jaguars exposure in home leagues and dynasty leagues. But also, because of what he showed us at the end of the year, Parker Washington goes, you know, sometimes as early as that Jalen Waddle, Christian Watson, Terry McLaur and Luther Burden range. And that's just there's so much variance in that offense to where even though I like Washington, I can't logically get there to draft him at that cost.
Starting point is 06:37:51 Yeah, I'll never, I'll just never get there. Like I just, there's too much. There's too much going on with talent, Eval overall, not really believing in the quarterback. The offensive line It's not necessarily good. And it's as crowded as you can possibly make it. So I think what you just explained is what you just laid out is everybody, expect a lot of tootin trade offers for me around about week six. Exactly. Whenever they just are getting smashed and shut down,
Starting point is 06:38:24 maybe scratching out some games into some really ugly offenses happening. The league's right, don't draft Tutin. I'll be sending trade offers for around about week six. So look forward to that. Awesome. Okay. I think that's all the wide receivers. That gives one for every range.
Starting point is 06:38:44 We could probably go on and on and on. But I think that comfortably sets everyone up explaining the reasons why we're on those players and those areas. Perfect. Okay. Awesome. Tight end, which is the real man's position,
Starting point is 06:38:59 it's what I played. That's one way to put it. Yeah. It's what I played. growing up. It's the best athlete on the field. Man, where do we start on that? The Colston Loveland thing is getting crazy.
Starting point is 06:39:19 It's getting crazy. And I'm not man enough to make a stand and go like, hey, everyone, slow down, slow down. Because it might be right. They could be right. But everything kind of stays the same at tight end unless everyone gets super excited about one or two dudes that are that that popped last year and they're projecting them forward a ton and colson levelins that dude this year and uh yeah i know
Starting point is 06:39:48 you're a brock bowers guy so is is brock brock your first guy or did you did you drive by in the the tech express lane to get further down the board brock is definitely my first guy and in your type of format ffPC main event uh he's my one-oose two over Bejohn Robinson and behind and we got the fifth pick we got the fifth pick coming up John oh that's easy yeah we know we know where it's going and in home leagues he's also another
Starting point is 06:40:18 reason I keep pushing back against running backs in that range after the Derek Henry Devon A chant here comes off the board and it's because I think Brock Bowers is about to beat all those wide receivers and probably that last group of running backs that have a wide range two like Amari and Hampton and Derek Henry and Devon A-chan. So for Brock Bowers last year, just recall that it was right.
Starting point is 06:40:43 And I remember preaching this. You can go back and listen to the shows. I wanted Trey McBride over Brock Bowers last season because their ADPs had a wide margin. McBride in Home Leagues was going typically at the second third round turn. Browers was going a full round ahead of him. And it was never about McBride outscoring Bowers. It was about him keeping it close in which he then ultimately did
Starting point is 06:41:06 outscore Bowers. Now, though, if you look at their ADPs, their neck and neck this year. Not only that, but I've been in enough draft now where I've seen McBride go over Bowers, and it's just entirely incorrect, given their outlooks for this season, including Bowers last year, plays
Starting point is 06:41:22 one game, right? One year removed from registering the most catches in a season by any NFL rookie, not just a tight end. He plays one game in week, before he suffers his knee injury. he was targeted on 35% of his routes. Like the outlook did start going towards making me look like an idiot. He thinks injured and he's just not the same player whatsoever. But again, now he's going the same ADP as McBride.
Starting point is 06:41:46 Thus, we should plan and build our drafts around Bowers. Yeah, I mean, he is one of my most owned players, I think, across all the entire portfolio. I'll reach, I'll go wherever you want to go on Bowers. If there is not a reason in the Rolodex besides he was hurt and he didn't deliver last year. And like I said, you do not copy and paste last year onto this year. He's the wide receiver one on an offense that now has a legit play caller. I think, honestly, Kirk Cousins starting the season could be very, very good for him if Cousins gets four to six games out there. because if you remember last year,
Starting point is 06:42:30 the reason Kyle Pitts was doing Kyle Pitts things was Kirk Cousins. And I think he's not an idiot. He's going to try and get the ball to his best player. And I have faith in Mendoza too, but I think those nuclear weeks that Brock Bowers is capable of, I think Kirk Cousins has more access to them early on than Mendoza will. And there's just not a reason that I can find that tells me that Brock Bowers is going to thud for any reason besides he injured his knee week one last year
Starting point is 06:43:05 and fought through it and played the entire year and yeah it kind of hurt you but you can't ride the like the emotional roller coaster of the guy the best year ever so drafted him earlier and then he didn't deliver and now I'm done that's that's really dumb that's really ignorant And so, I mean, we'll put my money literally behind that opinion, and I'll take him fifth overall in FFPC main event that we got. You know, rather than the strategy varies with every team I do, but I did what they call the pros versus Joe's, where they FFPC will stream every draft,
Starting point is 06:43:50 and then they'll take the quote unquote experts and put them against just people, fans who want to draft, the winner gets a free entry into the main event every year. In that type of format, I went Brock Bowers at 105. And on the comeback, I said, everyone's taking Derek Henry here. I'm going to push back in tight-in premium. I'm going to go Colston Loveland. I'm going to double-tap tight-end here.
Starting point is 06:44:13 And so that's kind of my strategy in the mid-round of FPC, the mid-range. I like doing that two elite tight-end with Loveland, given that to add context to what you mentioned earlier, Loveland's last five games, so when they finally began starting him when everyone was at full strength, including DJ Moore. His last five games, he literally had the same target share as Trey McBride did all year. And now we're removing DJ Moore from this offense entirely. So love Loveland's outlook, no pun intended, as a player who I have ranked over McBride in a vacuum. We've been known to double tap elite tight end a couple times in the main event. Pissing purple.
Starting point is 06:44:50 Yep, yeah, exactly. cranking purple. for sure. Like I, I, I'm always the one that brings it up and like, or we could, we could just have the two best tight ends in football, you know? Like, it's also one of those positions where like, the super high end production, uh,
Starting point is 06:45:10 is so concentrated into like two to maybe four if you're lucky in a year guys. And you're doing that thing where you're like robbing the rest of the, the rest of the board of access to a player like that. Like you just know no one is going to have a tight end that's expected to score 350. It's just it's a fun thing to do. And I like to play that way. And maybe we will. Maybe we will get Loveland on the wrap.
Starting point is 06:45:39 I don't know. No way McBride makes it back. Okay. Let's move down the board of tight end. Who else are you comfortable with? I think I know your overall strategy of take the really, really good ones. or wait a little bit, but tell me who the next guy that intrigues you is. Let's go a different route this time,
Starting point is 06:46:00 because what I've noticed is that once Colston Loveland comes up the board, everyone then begins forcing Tyler Warren, even though he's not the same player. And so I want to take a moment to push back and tell you, I don't have Tyler Warren, and I'm fading in this year. Because last season, think about what happened for the Colts. Through week eight, the first half of the year, their EPA per play not only led the league,
Starting point is 06:46:25 but was the best for any offense since the 2018 Patrick Mahomes chiefs. Daniel Jones was third in the league with eight and a half yards per attempt in that time. And then over his next four starts after week eight, that's when he became Daniel Jones, because we have seen this every year for his career, and that he had six turnovers in that time, and the Colts sank to 21st in EPA per play over the second half of the season. So when we're talking about the Colts being explosive offense overall,
Starting point is 06:46:54 I do like Shane Steichen. I think he can lead a league average, if not above average offense and efficiency every single year. But also Daniel Jones is not Patrick Mahomes. Like there is a wide range of outcomes for this offense overall, not to mention that Tyler Warren was targeted on 31% of his routes, the highest rate among all tight ends when Alec Pierce was injured and not on the field. But when Alec Pierce played, Warren was targeted in only 2.000.
Starting point is 06:47:22 21% of his routes, which was 21st among all tight ends. That is a wide range there. And so he's being boosted as not only the tight end for an ADP, but just in general, in his rounds and his range, we're talking about drafting him over Jalen Waddle, Luther Burton, Jameson Williams, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz, the list goes on. And that's just not something I can logically get around to.
Starting point is 06:47:48 Yeah, like I don't mind Tyler Warren at like, tight-in four if you're telling me that tight-in four is going to come before lad and waddle and that wall of wide receivers like i'm just never going to make that decision right i'm never going to i'm never going to do that um even in on teams where i've where i haven't secured my elite tight-in yet right like i'm just no no not doing that and i love tyler warren i think he's phenomenal player. I think that even in the moment last year with that Colts offense, I was like, we're going to look back and this is one of the weirdest things that's
Starting point is 06:48:32 happened in football for a while, the Colts setting EPA records offensively. And I think they can still be really good offensively because Jonathan Taylor is phenomenal player and that offensive line's pretty good. I just would not put a single dollar on the idea that Daniel Jones and Josh Downs as your primary outside receiver, wherever the hell they're going to play Josh Downs, and Keenan Allen, like, I love Tyler Ward. Really love his game.
Starting point is 06:49:01 One of the coolest college players that's happened in a long time. But, man, that's a dynasty play for me with, like, hope that in a couple of years, like he's that guy, like, he turns into Tramik Bride or something like that. But Trimic Bride is also a super unique scenario where that team's so bad that it doesn't. fucking matter what they're doing most of the time. So I like that call. That's a that's a crazy spot to have to take you as a huge Tyler Warren fan. That's when I log on to social media and I see people making the case for Tyler Warren. They're always talking about it from an individual player standpoint. They're not actually giving you the full context of where you need to take
Starting point is 06:49:45 them in your drafts. And so thus, I believe the situation is really easy to push back at despite me liking Tyler Warren as a player. Yeah, yeah, that's... So then... That's the thing. So if you pass on Tyler Warren because he goes too close to Colston Loveland in that range,
Starting point is 06:50:03 then there's really no definitive answer this year. So think back to last season, many years passed, but let's just use last season as an example. Mid-real tied-in. The names stay the same, but the results typically don't change. It is weird players.
Starting point is 06:50:21 go to die because remember outside of Tidton premium right and your home league you only have to start one it is very easy to mimic those points in streaming the position thus last year it was I don't even know if you remember this but sixth round tj hawkinson seventh round david and joku again this is what you're pushing back against and so given the the variance i've seen the position i'm just letting everyone know i'm temperature checking from the seventh, eighth round on. If your league is going to let Sam Leporta fall, and most of the time they don't,
Starting point is 06:50:57 but if they do, reminder, the Lions have the easiest projected schedule in the league. I have a bet on them to have the most wins in the entire league because that's how easy their schedule is all year. And Leporta in the nine games he played, 10th at his position in target share, a career high in yards per route run.
Starting point is 06:51:14 I'll take that chance. Sam Leporta goes early, let's say. I'll check back in on Tucker Kraft to maybe he falls for the, injury reasons. And as we already talked about, like when Tucker Kraft was on the field, the Packers were second in EPA for play because he's the one individual outside of George Killel's position who makes a different in every facet of the game. And Tucker Kraft goes early with San Laporta. I'll check back in on Kyle Pitts because Kevin Stefanski's offense in
Starting point is 06:51:40 Cleveland every single year finished with a top nine rate of targets to their tight ends. I believe Kyle Pitts is really set up for success this year. And also, by the way, in my experience, Cow pitts is the one that your league will let fall. No, everyone's done with it. No one wants Cow Pits. Even though, even if you look at it statistically, year five is the highest rate of breakout tight ends. Kyle Pitts is going into year five.
Starting point is 06:52:03 And that's logically because it's the hardest position to play in all football. You have to be a wide receiver, offensive lineman, and tied in. And so it takes five years for a young Kyle Pitts to learn. But I do like also checking back in on him. And then if there's just happen to be. someone who also is drafting Kyle Pitts to our linear league. I'll come back in for one of Dalton, Kate, who led all tight-ins last year and target share.
Starting point is 06:52:33 The issue is he only ran around on 49% of dropbacks, wasn't on the field, because he was injured and really a part-time player. But he still has a first-round resume as a pure receiving tight-in. And all you have to do is close your eyes in his range, again, after Kyle Fitz is where he's always drafted. and say, what if, though? What if we just add some conjecture to this and say, what if we bump up this route share just a hair?
Starting point is 06:52:57 And now you're playing with Josh Allen. So love Daltuncade. And I would make that same argument for Isaiah Likeley, who followed John Harbaugh to the Giants for the most guaranteed money in free agency at his position. The only player blocking Isaiah Likeley right now is Theo Johnson, who literally was dead last, and EAPA for Target,
Starting point is 06:53:18 asked Giants fans how many, first downs he cost them because he led his position and drops. He was just a constant loss of points every time Jackson Dart threw him the ball. And now Isaiah likely is an athletic specimen who no longer has to share the field with Mark Andrews and Malik Neighbors is banged up and we don't know the extent of him returning from his injury in week one. You know, you have to squint to get there, but truly there's odds here that Isaiah likely leads the giants and catches. And so I want to take that chance in the last round. The guy, I noticed you didn't mention Harold Fanon, who was one of our darlings last year.
Starting point is 06:53:59 Absolutely. I'm trying to figure out how I feel about Harold Fanon. I like a lot of these tied in so much because I just like really enjoyed their game. And I had to like temper myself from just reaching to draft them and consider context and consider, okay, conceptions there. Denzel Boston's there. Judkins is probably going to run the ball like 25 times a game. Did the Harold Fanon thing happen last year
Starting point is 06:54:25 strictly because he was the best option that they had for, you know, pseudo receiver? Or is, do you think it happens again? Unfortunately, because he typically goes after Tyler Warren, he's the guy that I'm chalking up to. Man, I really love this player, but I just can't get behind the 80. considering all the changes that you've mentioned. It's not Jerry, Judy, Isaiah Bond, and Cedric Tillman anymore.
Starting point is 06:54:54 Now it's Casey Concepcion, who is a true breakout stud at Texas A&M and Denzel Boston. They quickly nabbed in the second round two competing for targets. Not only that, it's a worse quarterback situation than, you know, what they plugged in last year upon trading Joe Flacco, right? It is Deshawn Watson and Schernerz Sanders with literally nowhere else to go, with, again, more miles to feed that we believe are confident. So I'm personally worried about Harold Fandon's outlook and fantasy this year. All right, so that was awesome, man.
Starting point is 06:55:24 I think we helped a lot of folks, or you helped a lot of folks. I just kind of threw my bad opinions in there intermittently. But we do have a lot more stuff this week. I'm going to get with Chuck and Fitz. I think Wednesday night and Thursday night to preview the positions in a pretty deep dive manner. we'll get obviously fits his offensive line rankings and all that kind of stuff and talk about you know offenses we want to bet on offensive coordinators we want to bet on and just hopefully get you as ready as you can possibly be for your your drafts home leagues or dynasties or whatever
Starting point is 06:55:59 the hell you got going on man we're here to support you and so has established the run they're the best in the business uh Daigle is the season long bro and he's here every week what are you what shows are you going to be scheduled on weekly? The Tuesday Waiver show, we went paywall last year, which everyone has an RSS feed for Establish to Run if they're a subscriber, which
Starting point is 06:56:24 I enjoy because I can just kind of go on my own tangent and talk about why I view pickups the way I do. But beyond that, the free shows for everyone on the Establess to Run podcast and YouTube feeds will be the typical Wednesday rest of season 150 show. We talk about
Starting point is 06:56:40 future outlooks for everyone. And a couple others. I can't remember the regular season schedule. I feel like I got two weeks away. So that PTSD isn't hitting me yet. Yeah, yeah, not in the rhythm yet. But you can follow him at at Not J. Daigle. And obviously follow establish the run.
Starting point is 06:56:57 Get a subscription there. They're the best in the business in total coverage of the fantasy football. And they do some basketball too, a landscape. So do check it out. If you, you know, I think the trick is whenever you're new to all this stuff, it's like finding the right tools like you just assume like people don't have answers for this type of stuff but nowadays there's so many people doing it on this industry and establish the run is one of the one of the oGs and one of the ones that put the most work into it so it's really
Starting point is 06:57:27 impressive what it's turned into uh absolutely and uh i'll be on the dumb zone tomorrow on tuesday uh i think a 1 p.m uh spot to kind of get those knuckleheads ready for fantasy football and the best way i can uh and maybe 20 30 minutes. And then, yeah, check out the rest of the stuff. Action is the Juice will be on the dumb zone. YouTube, also audio versions there. But this has been great, man. You know, I wanted to get Dagle on for a long time because he's awesome at this.
Starting point is 06:57:57 And he's just very good at what he does. So this was a treat for me. I don't care if anybody else gets anything out of it. I feel like I learned some stuff. So I appreciate it, man. You're the best. I hope to see you super soon. We get to hang out in person.
Starting point is 06:58:11 but appreciate your time, man. I appreciate all the kind words. I did understand that it may be a different audience that we're reaching out to. So I did try to be a little bit more explanatory in the stats we typically throw around. But if anyone has questions, you heard him at Nodjay Daigle. Please ask questions. I will answer you. Yeah.
Starting point is 06:58:33 And don't ask Daigle how many championships he's won in the league that we share and how many I have. But I was trending last year. You got a good team. You got a good team. Well, when you're asked to start one between Dallas Goddard and Isaiah likely every week, you're just never going to get it right. Like Isaiah likely against the Bengals, I'll run it back. I was wrong, though, and that's what cost me.
Starting point is 06:58:58 You're on your way. I wouldn't worry about it. You're building pretty nice. My team is about the age the F out, like all collectively, just all expire. into dust at one moment so uh awesome man appreciate you i'll talk to you soon and uh thanks guys for watching there'll be more later in the week

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.