The Dumb Zone FREE - Action Is The Juice: Week 4 Action Items

Episode Date: October 7, 2026

Machine and Daigle help you win your fantasy leagueWeek 4 reaction and week 5 action items ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

The action is the juice. It's Mike. It's John Daigle from Establish the Run. The man bringing you all the waiver wire info that you need. Not as fun of a waiver wire as last week, I would say, but a useful one will be coming your way. Panthers and Chiefs on the buy this week, if you didn't already know that.

Somehow that snuck up on me too, man. I was like, oh shit, bye weeks are here. But first and foremost, how are you, man? Happy to see you. I hope your teams are rolling along pretty well. Doing good. You mentioned you weren't sure when the buys were around, but I believe I even discussed last week patting for Bryce Young and Patrick Mahomes at this time.

And the quarterbacks that I thought had the easiest schedules, at least for this week's matchups. Now, we've lost a couple more quarterbacks since then. We've lost a couple more players since then. So the league continues to be complicated. We're sending a team to London at quite literally the worst time I've ever seen a team had to travel to London as they're going to be without practically half their starters. But we'll talk about all these things to move along.

Yeah, Cowboys are Thursday night as well, which didn't realize until I started prepping for this. So, yeah, scheduling stuff, I'm not doing a great job of overall thus far. So I'm going to lean on you for that. But yeah, I think the, three well let's talk about two things and then we'll touch on uh what happened to the jets because i think we were both pretty excited for for brailyn allen and kenyon sadik last week and they kind of um flatlined on us for good reason but uh the two situations i think that'll help shape the waiver wire and then um some other decisions uh who's actually playing for the seahawks

because i thought joe mixon was going to be there and then they whatever whatever they saw on joe mixon's foot they were they were convinced enough to be like no no no no this is bad um and then the eagles man i mean uh down the two two top running backs uh gone down to will shiply uh level of uh under the surface and i guess you can just uh get four weeks into a season and say i've had enough um and i like lane johnson i've met i've met him a couple times i like to do so if he was if he was if he's checking out, I trust that he was about to have to have some serious surgery. So anyway, the Seahawks and the Eagles situations, both getting very, very confusing, very, very quickly, basically since the last time we talked.

So walk me through what's going on in Seattle with, I guess, Emmanuel Wilson, and then with the Eagles. How do you play those? We'll start with the Eagles, because that's the easiest one, quote unquote, easiest to discuss, because quite frankly, they're missing everyone. and they're not sending anyone to London. They're just what seems like going to punt this game against Jacksonville. It initially opened to Jacksonville two and a half point favorites.

It's already climbed to Jacksonville being seven a half point favorites. Again, it's not even a home game. The market is even like, yeah, the Eagles are done. Honestly, I'm trying not to be, use hyperbole here, but it really does remind me of like the end of the Legion of Boom or the separation of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick because this really does seem like the end of an era for an Eagles team that constantly competed and beat track Patrick Mahomes and several Super Bowls with Jalen Hertz.

They are down to little scraps and it's not just this year. It's the next few games and more importantly is the offensive line. Already this past weekend, Cam Juergens became their second offensive lineman in only four games to send himself to injure reserve and report his own injury. That's what happened after Landon Dickerson did so in week one with the knee injury. He said, listen, I can't play. Like, I have to go on in your reserve. I'm so banged up.

This past week, same thing for Cam Jergens who entered the concussion protocol because he said, I'm dealing with a concussion. Like, I can't block. I can't play right now. Afterwards, as you mentioned, Lane Johnson, first round ballot Hall of Famer, who actually, I believe is going to be up whenever Aaron Rogers and Mike Evans, assuming they're done in the next year, they'll probably be up the same time as Lane Johnson. So that's a pretty cool class coming up in like five years' time.

But Lane Johnson also just walked out and said, you know what? I think I'm done now after the first month of the season. Also someone who nearly walked out in preseason but decided to come back for one more run has also battled mental health issues. So he cited that in his statement to the team. But overall, the Lane Johnson injury is the most important. as I move along here, because we've seen this before. Just last year, whenever we were talking about

Saquoan Barkley doesn't look explosive, this offensive line can't block. For the record, when Lane Johnson played, this team was third in the APA per play and eighth in yards per attempt through the air. They were one of the most explosive and efficient offenses in the entire league. During the 325 plays with Lane Johnson off the field,

they sunk to 28th in EPA per play and 24th in yards per attempt. mind you, we now taking those splits into London and probably the next couple of games without also Sequin Barclay, who's week to week with a hamstring injury, their backup, take Bigsby, who's now getting core abdomen surgery and being placed on injured reserve for practically the rest of the middle of the season. And then also Devontas Smith, their number one wide receiver, Dallas Goddard, their number one tied in. Move on over to the other side of the ball if you like, Quinion Mitchell, one of

the absolute best cornerbacks in the league, not going to play here. Zach Bond going through concussion protocol as a linebacker, they're just strapped. They are bringing again, nothing overseas. And so it just seems like this is a game we go to, they punt, and then one of Nick Sirion or Jalen Hertz doesn't get back on the jet. So, yeah, I'm very worried. You know, I don't know if you want to do this here, but that also brings us to our top pick up of the week, oddly enough.

It is Will Shipley because there's no one else available. Like behind Will Shipley right now is everyone's dynasty team that they're holding on to in Damien Pierce and Jade and Blue. That tells us it's going to be all Will Shipley against the Jaguars who, mind you, the longest rusher, the most rushing yards they've allowed to a running back going all the way back to last year is 74 yards to Jonathan Taylor. No one does anything against Jacksonville. So we're not even expecting Will Shipley to have success. What we're looking at is the fact that he still leaves all these running backs for the Eagles. Sepon Barkley included and routes run. And we saw this past week that as we know, targets are outs for running backs.

Alvin Kamara had 23 rushing yards on Monday night, was a top 12 running back. He scored twice, but he had a 15% target share too. Chase Brown didn't even get the 20 yards rushing. He had a 20% target share was a fringe RB one. As long as you catch a lot of passes, you can do so. And it's not just that Will Shipley excels at catching passes. The Jaguars have allowed the second most targets and receiving yards to opposing running backs per week.

So I'll take those points. I think he's the top pickup of the week given the weak waiver wire. And it's pretty much going to be Jalen Hertz, Darius Cooper, Mackay Lemon, Dantavian Wicks, and Will Shipley this week, trying to do something. But I fear the worst is they have the third lowest team total implied by Vegas this week. Devante's not traveling.

Is that what you said? He might not, but everything they had discussed suggests it was always a two-week plan. So I would go in assuming he is out. Okay. I just hadn't seen that one yet. Yeah, and remind the people what Will Shipley's profile is, because I don't think he's had a full-on runway like this in the past. Or if he has, they've kind of cheated it and not had to use.

him in this fashion. But, you know, everyone says, uh, kind of satellite back. But then you look at his usage in college and you're like, oh, maybe not. Um, so just remind the people what if you're, if you're going to, if you're willing to, um, I was kind of astonished by the, the high stakes recommendation that you had for Will Shipley. I was like, shit, I don't need them that much. Whatever I saw the number on there. And so for reference to that, like, I do think Mike Leone had established one was asking me to like, I think 322, 323 out of 1,000, probably wins Will Shipley. Remember, we just got up to 53% for Ollie Gordon last week.

There was a running back in week one. I can't remember who it was, but he also went for 320 or 330. So we've seen these bids already come in on backup players. And right now, most teams are so ravaged, especially in these 20 round leagues, that if you can guarantee, and that's what we're doing, We're basically guaranteeing Will Shipley gets two starts, one against the Jaguars, the other against the Panthers that are top 10 and points per game allowed to running backs. And then the Eagles come back home to host the Cowboys on Monday night, giving Sequin Barclay that extra 24 hours to practice and prep the play as well. So I'm assuming we're paying for two starts in week five for a starting running back that you can even flex if you'd like.

Thus, I think it is worth the, again, if you need it, the 320, 330 range. all the way up to what I believe is going to be the winning bid, 520 or 530. Was it Kailon Black, week one? It was Kailon Black. That was it, yeah. That's why I keep all the notes in the same sheet, not because I'm lazy. So you can control F? Yeah, dude, we were going into our main events last week, and I was like,

it'd be cool to have Olly Gordon, but I'm not tripping about it. Like, we're going to put in a nice, like, high threes, maybe a four. and just see if everyone's napping. And one of them was close. One of them was within 40 bucks, I think, of a winning bid. I think someone bid like 440, 450. And I was like, okay, whatever. And then the other league, dude, it was mid-600s.

And I was like, Jesus Christ, y'all are spazzing out on this. And, I mean, I guess, you know, we'll get to what that kind of got you, a point total and why we don't necessarily believe in Ollie Gordon long term. But, okay, and then Seahawks, Emmanuel Wilson is. you know, a classic like 2.8 yards per carry dude. But yeah, I, you know, I guess he's the answer with Judarian hitting IR as well, which I don't know. I don't know if I like the new I are not with the four weeks just getting slapped on you. Because it seems like teams are very very quick to use it right now, even if it is like just a two week injury. Or you're the 49ers

and literally don't have spots left so you can't use them. These, like, Neal Hodges and these guys are just kind of sitting there, not going to play, but they also don't have a spot to take them off their roster. Yeah, I feel that. I feel that. As a person that's worked for an NBA team that had, like, you know, Anthony Davis on the other side of the wall in a locker room and Christop's Porzingis, and these dudes that are just like wearing out your training staff just every day. But give me that look for the Seahawks.

I know that the mixing thing did not happen, though everybody had that. you know, signed seal, deliver that he was going to be a part of the practice squad. Mixon is not there. So whatever math we had with Mixon getting worked in there, take that out, delete all those articles, update the text on that one. So it's back to just Emmanuel Wilson and I guess Halani

for a little bit until Sharbonnet comes back. So give me your outlook for the Seahawks. And we've known this entire time going all the way back to preseason when the team was trying to hype George Halani. He's a career special teamer can work in as he did in place of Zach Sharbonne. during the playoffs last year, whenever it became the Kenneth Walker show, Halani still showed up for past routes. But beyond that, he's not in every touch running back,

whereas we saw Emmanuel Wilson's loan start for Josh Jacobs with the Packers last year resulted in 30 touches for 150 yards from scrimmage. He is a, as you saw on Sunday, very big guy who can take on that load, even though he's more of a rumbler and stumbler between the tackles. But nonetheless, still, he gave Seattle their best performance by running back so far, earned a 20% target share, shockingly as well, handled 70% of the running back carries, and bulldozes way for 2.2 yards after contact per run, which was the 10th highest mark among all running back.

So it's a short-term ad, Wilson is, as Zach Charbonnet continues to circle around the waters, most likely returning in the next couple of games. Because it's not only the four-game injured reserve that you're put on, you have to remember there's a three-week window that is activated, and then you have to play within those three weeks or at least be added to the roster. Otherwise, you're lost for the year. And then for start set purposes for fancy football, you also have to ask yourself, how many weeks are you actually losing?

Because most likely, unless Zach Charbonnet practices in full, all these players. Unless they practice in full before their first game, you're not going to start them either. It's just way too risky unless you're that desperate. And so that's why I just genuinely stay away from drafting injured players because then we're dealing with Alec Pierce and Malik neighbors. Quinn Sean Juckins, uh, Quinton Juckins,

even, the usage has gone up substantially without Dylan Sampson the past couple of weeks, but also because he's returning from this serious injury, his longest run so far is 11 yards this year. Like he's literally,

he's Javante Woods. He's literally guy who can fall forward for two touchdowns. Otherwise, though, it looks, it even looks like it's just falls flat constantly. It does not look good whatsoever. So yeah,

that's what Emmanuel Wilson is. But again, I expected to be somewhat of a shootout against the 49ers. That division, the NFC West, have each other's number because they see each other twice a year. They haven't rotated coaches much often as well. So I still think Emmanuel Wilson is a fine plug-and-play option this week, the next couple of weeks, until Zach Charbonne returns, especially since Gerian Price now. He was already benched basically for a committee approach with Wilson and George Olani.

I would imagine Jadrian Price basically just. lost his rookie year altogether now that we're adding Zach Charbonnet in the mix, who again, Charbonnet, for whatever you think about him, did turn an entire season into a committee with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker until Charbonnet was injured. Yeah, and with the Seahawks, I think we can be honest with everybody and know what their run game is. It's like breaking pitches out of the zone. You know what I mean?

It's just like, I'm going to throw junk at you until it's time for, uh, agent. Jay Barner chunk play or, you know, JASN on a crossing route. And that's kind of all they're trying to do. This past week, they gave Rashidjahed a couple tosses. And then he exploded for a 20-yard rushing touchdown because they'll find ways.

They have very explosive players. They'll find ways to get explosives. I don't think that's what they want from their running game, similar to like the Alexander Madison year, from Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings, where their passing offense was so explosive. They were totally happy having three yards in a cloud dust and that's it.

Yeah, and then I wanted to bring up the Jets because I think we were both pretty excited about them last week with Braylon Allen getting a start for Brise Hall and we'll see what happens this week as well on that front. And then playing, you know, the Bears, which we didn't necessarily believe in the run defense on. And Kenyon, Sadiq trending up. And, you know, four targets sounds bad, but then you realize it's whatever, 20-something percent of the targets that existed in the game.

the Jets only had 32 plays. Worse third down percentage, I think, at least with nine that many, they had nine third down opportunities and got zero of them. And so the Bears just did an old fashion, just beat you to death with a hammer and ran it and ran it and kept running it. And my nun guy, I think 30 touches by the end of the game. And, you know, I don't know what you're supposed to do with 32 plays. no one draws up a game plan for that.

So I hate that Sadiq fell flat. I wish we would have caught a couple of those balls and had a better connection with Gino Smith. And I wish Breland Allen would have gotten more opportunities. But it doesn't necessarily, when something is that askew to me, it doesn't necessarily factor into even moving forward. My calculation on it except for the jets are susceptible to this type of game. And it could pop up again where they have a sub 40 plus. offensive game, but I'm not going to bet on that.

That seems dumb to do. So I don't know. I was talking a lot with Dan about Kenyon, Sadiq, or Colston Loveland. And as soon as a lot of the Jets... This past week or rest of season? This past week. Who to start. And as soon as a lot of the Jets past catchers were ruled out, I was like,

okay, there's a bull signal for you. for Sadiq if you were wanting one, if you were wanting to get off the Colston-Levelin train. And, yeah, we were wrong. I was wrong on that one. But, okay, let's fly through some of the injury matrix stuff here. So you can- Well, yeah, I want to add on the Bears and Jets really quick, though,

that, yeah, the last two weeks, this has been the formula. I'm not even sure the Bears' defense is good still to this day. What's been done, though, is that this is why their pass rate has sunk all the way to 31st the last two weeks with backup quarterbacks because they're playing bully ball. They are instead playing keep away and they are limiting the possessions. You mentioned the 30 plays the Jets had. Gino Smith attempted 15 passes. And that's why I know everyone plays the theoretically the drinking game at home,

take a shot anytime these guys say target share. But that's important because four targets on 15 throws is different than four targets on 40 throws. Like you're actually earning a majority of your team's receiving pie. So yes, Keny Sadiq. It actually was quietly a season high 26% target share. Thus, I'm very encouraged moving four on him. We're going to talk about Colston Loveland a bit,

but right now that's all that happened to the Jets. I would not worry at all about Gino Smith, Garrett Wilson, Kenyon Sadiq. They just got bared down and they literally had the ball taken away from them for the entire game. Yeah. Okay, off the top, we talked about the Eagles, Seaquin and Biggs Bix being out leading to Shipley

and how much need to bid on Shipley to probably win him. Out of your fab budget, Jaron Price, obviously, means Manuel Wilson, who was a super smash last week, if anybody had the balls to throw him in the starting lineup. Jamar Chase and T. Higgins, concussion and then groin injury. The T thing, I feel like it's day-to-day, and I haven't seen any updates on Jamar.

I don't know when they do that start doing the concussion tests, what point in the week, but Dante Myers, Is your guy there who, do you know the story? Yeah, I think I heard it earlier from Levitan about where he went to school and how he just got no offers. And I can't remember the schools now, because it's ones I don't say often. I don't commit to memory. But yeah, that one's pretty awesome. And Gisiki, of course, when any one of them is out, Gisiki just becomes wide receiver 2.5.

Rashad White to Echler, who got a little bit of work, four carries, I think, last week. And he might have gotten some targets. I didn't see target numbers in Echler, but Chris Brooks might not feel like a big thing, but we'll talk about a little bit later. Backfields that are split between two guys, we can figure something out for. Backfields that are split between three guys, fucking nightmare. So I'd like the Packers backfield to get simplified pretty quickly. and then maybe even get simplified more whenever Marshaun Lloyd eventually injures himself, which he always does.

DJ Moore dealing with the shoulder issue that is Kenyon Coleman. It's actually had some pretty good weeks. I think two good weeks out of four, thus far for Kenyon Coleman. Caleb Douglas, I know you wrote about Chris Bell in the Waver Wire right up. Are you still looking at week five? Are you looking at the week four column? I don't know. Now that you mention Caleb Douglas.

Or does you mean to say Chris Bell? Yeah, I met Caleb Douglas to Chris Bell. Oh, got it. Yeah, because Chris Bell I still have high. No, you're good. I just want to be clear if only because, like, you would have to spend more for Chris Bell. He wouldn't be the cheapest wide receiver,

despite being my top wide receiver pickup. If he didn't theoretically step out of back. Still not sure if you stepped out of bounds in that 60-yard touchdown, but that's what they called. Thus, it's a zero in the box score. But behind the scenes, it's still a season high, 80% route share now. This is a guy I wanted to pick up because, again,

someone who we thought could have been a first-round player, had he not injured himself during training for the NFL combine. But I thought it would take the entire first five games since the dolphins are on by in week six for Bell to then come back healthy in week seven. He's already had an 80% share, already making explosive play. So Bell is someone, I definitely, regardless of if you were starting them against the

bingles or not, Bell is someone I'm stashing ahead of week seven right now. Yeah. And I, for some reason, I was watching that live and I saw that long touchdown from Chris Bell and I was like, let's fucking go. Like, it's time, dude. And then, yeah, like three minutes later, I'm like, where'd the Chris Bell touchdown go? Yeah, it just broke my heart. Lad, my God, dude.

Like, I just cannot play a full half of football. No. Trey Harris for Ladd. Devante Smith, if he does not travel to London, Darius Cooper, which is just, I don't know, we'll talk about the Eagles in a little bit, at least passing game in a little bit. Chris Alave, what was he dealing with?

I didn't even see that one. The Saints and Kellyn Moore were playing their, all their stories. Oh, yeah. Garbage time on that final touchdown drive that Devon Velae caught, but on the play before, Crystal Lobby banged up his shoulder and had to get taken off the field. So it's just one of those things where I note it just so everyone can be ahead of it. No idea if it will come to fruition or not.

But it's benefited me in the past to be ahead of these things, just to let everyone know. Yeah, no, I think that's smart. Drake May came to life finally and brought Efton Chisholm with him because Matt Collins got injured in the middle of the game. Pat Bryant. I don't know what the injury is. I didn't see the designation. carted off, I believe high ankle sprayed. Oh, damn.

It wasn't like Tyquon Thorntons where Gordon stands up to celebrate, which is it's proof of what adrenaline can do to a person. Yeah. Because he didn't even realize his ankle was pointing the other direction until he looked down and then quickly fell down. I love the lineman walking over there, like trying to help him or like daff him up. And he's like, hey, you're all right? And he points at his foot.

And they go, oh, God. He was already on my way. way to being the second number two pickup two while I was I was noting behind will Shipley on Sunday just because we saw whenever tycoon Thornton came in last year whenever Rashid Rice and Xavier Wordley were injured he out targeted Marquis Brown as the chief's number one receiver he has an actual rapport with Patrick Mahomes two touchdowns this game and then just just shit luck yeah yeah and Rashies dealing with something as well left first drive I believe but they're on the buy so we'll see what comes out of that next week man um no healthy

receivers for the colts uh so lequin treadwell looks like he's your man and they are ripe for a trade i'm bringing in a wide receiver my god what it wasn't just alec pierce who got put on under reserve keen allen missed this past game in london and ashton dulin injured himself in game so they were literally down to josh downs lequan treadwell and dion burke said wide receiver that's it That's the dream. Yeah, Josh Downs still not getting targeted somehow to the full extent. And Tyler Ward is still not getting targeted five yards down field. Yeah.

Colts Khalil Shakir is all he is. Yeah, what am I to criticize them? They scored 30 and got a win on the road or in London. I mean, against the Greek rifle, but yeah. Yeah, that's true. What is Levitan call him earlier? the Baclaval bomber, I think. Oh, it's the Baclaval bomber.

Yeah. Yeah. The Greas Gunner, like, yeah, there's many names for it. He did. So I like when quarterbacks, a lot reminiscent of David Blow coming in on Thanksgiving during the pandemic many years ago.

I like when quarterbacks understand the assignment. You're a third stringer who's never going to play again, most likely. You get in there and you become Brett Bar. You just see what happens when you launch the ball. And I believe the Baclaval bomber led the entire league so far through four weeks and throws 30 yards deep. He knew what the assignment was. And he did his best.

But ultimately, yes, they lost by multiple touchdowns. Yeah, dude, let's be real. Like, you're not getting a starting job if you perform like really nicely next year. Just go in there, like do a whole bunch of plays that it's, it just stinks to me like you said, watch this shit right before. play started like hold my beer type shit like do that dude that rules um jalen mcmillan uh ted hirsch would be your answer and then i think ted hurst had a significant dip in his role last week too so all kinds of a mess uh in tampa bay uh jets are a bit of a mess omar cooper uh and arian smith missing time would mean adie mitchell 80 mitchell missing time would mean isaiah williams somehow

this all just waterfalls down to Kenyon Sadiq with Mason Taylor, potentially missing time. Justin Jefferson, the benefactor there would be T.J. Hawkinson. And you said you looked to me for scheduling the Vikings on by next week by the sound of it, Justin Jefferson is going to miss this one. And T.J. Hawkinson this past week was targeted on 43% of his routes. Kyler Murray looked nowhere else. Just quickly got the ball to T.G. Hawkinson. And so if you have Hawkinson, if he's on your waiver wire,

flicksworthy, one more game. Beautiful matchup, by the way, against that Saints defense that we just saw, had zero answers against Michael Pennix and the Falcons. Yeah. I mean, it makes sense. He's like, you know, five and a half feet tall. If there's something that's at a, like, a higher angle that you could throw to,

like, Hawkinson, I can see him. Can't see anybody else. I don't know where Jordan Addison is. Would just be preparing? You're not going to have Justin. Jefferson this week. Yeah, that sucks. Let's see, T.Ferg went to IR with a nasty ankle issue. Colby Parkinson. It's time as well. It was Higby and Davis Allen, right? Where the mop-up duty. That's just Tyler Igby. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Charlie Kohler and Injoku out. That's been

for a little bit. Gadsden would be your answer. And Goddert would mean Zach Ertz. We talked about, in the quarterback stuff has initially changed actually for one week besides Jade and Daniels we'll see. Double check on your waiver wires for Drake May and Jayden Daniels could have been dropped the past couple of weeks. We needed one confident game, just one for Drake May. He finishes the overall QB one this past week. And now the next month, literally the easiest schedule for quarterbacks in fantasy

points allowed. So please go out there. in a one quarterback league. I'm suggesting 16 to 21 for Drake May because like you can he's back like he's back in our lives. Yeah. Yeah. Wholeheartedly agree.

Talked about Shipley. Pretty extensively. Talk about Chris Bell. I and we and Manuel Wilson's on here as well. We talked about him. I want to get your thoughts on. And I heard you talk about it on your Waver Wire show earlier. Keaton Mitchell.

and the long-term role there. And we talked about it a bit last week. Like, what does Keaton Mitchell, what does it look like when Keaton Mitchell takes over a backfield? And does that mean, is that targets, is that passes, is that carries, there's a combination and just getting all the high value touches? So Keaton Mitchell has been lingering around, I think, a top five Waver Wire player. And I, you know, maybe it's just compounding bad week back after. bad week after bad week for Amari and Hampton. That just makes me feel even more confident about Keaton Mitchell,

but long-term outlook for him. The simple answer is that if Amarian Hampton's universally rostered, which he is, Keaton Mitchell should be universally rostered because he's arguably the RB1, if not the RB1B for the Chargers now. His share back-billed touches has increased in three consecutive games since week two, so much so he just outright out-touched Hampton 15 to 11. 11 this past game. So in terms of the pickups for this week,

I do think Will Shepley and Emmanuel Wilson in that order are the better short-term starters. But I know everyone is in such desperation mode right now. I started Keat Mitchell this past week over Ameca Bucca, for example, because from Jalen Daniels, I just saw as we talked about, Emeka Buka having a 35-yard receiving line over under on the market with an undrafted quarterback, and I said,

I can't start that. Like I have to hope Keaton Mitchell catches passes as he's done now since his target share increased in three consecutive games. And he did just that as a top 24 running back. So again, just the fact that Hampton's rostered everywhere probably will still be as the bigger body first round player. The running back they lean on inside the five yard line and the rare times they get inside the five yard line. But it seems like Keat Mitchell really is now in a two-headed committee. All right, we're going to play a little game here. And if you have some of these of your own, by all means, just tap in.

But we've got four weeks of data. We've got a whole preseason of prepping for this entire season. There's some situations where I'm just willing to go, and they're not all like I was wrong on this. It's kind of like I've seen a drum beats either positively or negatively and then actual inputs to lead me to conclusions that I'm going to say, I've seen enough. This is the way this thing's going. And it's not, I'm not saying it's going to be a hit every single week, but I would say majority of the time, this is, this is going to be the outcomes for this player, rest of season by either how their offense is operating, sometimes how their defense is operating, what their

offense can do, how many goal line situations, just all the stuff that goes into what you think about a player moving forward. So I've seen enough, man. Kiron Williams is full on back and he's going to be a league winner again. He looks awesome. The passing game work is a new, not a new little wrinkle, but to this extent that they are utilizing the dump off and the flat to him and using him as a past game weapon. I don't know if you've ever seen it quite like this.

And that was with Pooka back. So how do you feel about Karen Williams? Well, you're right. We have never seen it like this. The Rams and Sean McFa's offense historically do not target their running backs whatsoever. This year, they are. It looks like my numbers ninth and running back target rate. Kyron Williams also picked up where he left off in the first couple of weeks,

which is why this has come out of nowhere somewhat. But weeks one and two handled 47 and 52% of their backfield touches. The past two weeks, though, stranglehold in favor of Kyran, 75% and 81% this past game. So now we're combining the target share with all the touches as Blake Corum has become dropable or merely just a stashable contingency option with no standalone value. Yes, it's all looking up for Kyron. Yeah, and Blake Corum has looked good. Like in his defense, when he's gotten touches on the ground, like I have to say,

Oh, but Quorum's awesome. He's one of the most explosive running backs in the league, but they are clearly leaning into Kyron. Yeah, and the thing that's changing my mind, we all knew Kyron was going to get the usage. I think we all could pencil in him as definitely a top 10 running back in terms of like overall touches end of year, whether or not those were efficient and whether or not those were just like all between the 20s and on the ground is kind of the challenge. is kind of the trick,

but the second you put this little base layer of, yeah, you're going to run between the 20s and you're going to be there, you know, a trap back almost. But then actually, I'm at this second layer of past catching. And then, you know what, we're going to give us some touchdowns as well. Like that just launches him into an atmosphere, into like a Chase Brown preseason expectation

where that guy was going around the one-two turn, whereas Kyron was probably going down closer to like the two. two, three turn. Another guy that is that has launched that people didn't know what necessarily to make heads or tails of his backfield during the preseason is Jalen Warren. Dude, he looks awesome. And the Rico Dattle injury has cleared the way for the Jalen Warren usage to get cranked up. And it sucked last week that he stepped on the landmine and or the week before that he stepped on the landmine didn't get the touchdown, the long touchdown, because his numbers would be even better. But Jalen Warren is an RV1.

I've seen enough. Jalen Warren is an RB1 rest of season. You going to fight me on that one? I will not. We've always known Jalen Warren is immensely talented, one of the top 10 most talented running backs in the NFL. But since he's smaller and really was pigeonholed into a committee role, had never, to these last two weeks, received this style of opportunity.

And he's flourished with it. Now, we start to ask ourselves, how much of a dent, if any, does Rico Dowdle make whenever he returns? Because then it could change still drastically. But I'm hoping this team has seen enough from Jalen Warren and honestly seen enough that they have to be a running attack. That's how they're going to win games. Aaron Rogers continues to be one of the most inefficient quarterbacks in the league

based on the volume he's getting and the accuracy of his passes. I would hope they instead lean into Jalen Warren the rest of the way. Yeah. The next one is about the Eagles offense. And we talked about the backfield is obviously in shambles because of due to injury. But, you know, losing a right tackle. This isn't necessarily a Lane Johnson take. This is a nobody that you thought would be productive for the Eagles is going to be productive this season. And that's Mackay Lemon. That's Dallas Goddard. Maybe Devante Smith. When he comes back, you're like, oh, kind of happy I had Devante Smith. It worked out enough, but, dude, they are in such a bad way that it feels like regime change is on the horizon. And I don't know if they can even bench Jalen Hertz. I don't know if the contract situation. I don't know if it's a coach thing. But man, they just, last week wasn't McKayleman week. It was a D'Kylemon week. It wasn't Natavian Week's week. Didn't happen. And now it's a deal. It was a D. It was a D.

There is Cooper Week jokes on everybody. And I just, I thought the Eagles were such, it's so easy to fall into that, like, that creature comfort habit of drafting offenses that were previously really good. And trusting that they will figure out how to make it good again. See Seahawks, see the Rams, see, you know, a Kubiak offense with the Raiders and just go like, These guys know how to figure out how to get chunk plays and yards and offense. And Eagles can't convert third downs. And Mackay Lemon is not involved.

Devante Smith only gets involved on scrambles 20 yards down the field when he has to toe tap and save Jalen Hurts's ass on like crazy throws. Dallas Goddard's hurt. It's just, there's nothing fun about the Eagles. It's so miserable right now. it's again it's come so quickly they had four the Eagles did offensive drives in the second half this past week

it went interception punt punt punt they currently lead the league in their rate of going three and out nothing is fun again it's like they just handed the division to the Cowboys it's what's happened because not from anything the Cowboys are doing it's just that the Eagles fall from grace is quite

literally that large. Yeah. And it's still early. So there is time for me to think that they could just crater for like three weeks, fall way off the wagon, fire everybody, and then pop back up week week eight, week nine, and start playing good football again and stack enough wins to threaten for the division. I think that could happen. But that's not with the current. Like you have to, some of the wires have to be unhooked and reconnected in different spots. It's not going to work as it is.

Man, I don't know why I have Kirk Cousins on a couple teams, but I do. It's really funny to watch, dude. He still knows how to play football. He's having a Joe Flacco season. But I think the Raiders offense is for real. As funny as it is, everyone's going, who's their wide receiver? I got new of these dudes. Like, I don't even know who Cody White is.

And you're like, actually, bud, the thing you weren't thinking about is that Brock Bowers is one of the best wide receivers at football. And they don't even joke about using him as a tight end. And so when you can stack that dude outside and in the slot and just use them as a complete wide receiver weapon, I mean, with however many percentage of a meniscus, he still has in his knee. Or if they're trimming it. They trim it weekly. I don't know what happens.

It's like a house plant. I don't know what they're doing with Bauer's knee, but he came back on the timeline that they said they would, and he is cooking as a wide receiver one. And I think the Raiders offense is for real because I think Genti is still playing hurt. And I think he, you know, I'm not going to say he's like, going to get healthier throughout the season.

But maybe after the by week, Gentie feels a little bit better and he starts producing. Because they're doing all this with Genti just being like, well, kind of okay. But I think the Raiders' offense is for real, man. I've seen enough. I mentioned buying Gentile low last week and still definitely on top of that. Mike Washington cut into Genties carries overall.

I believe it was a season high 40% share of the team's running back carries. But Gentie still was right there with a top two target share at his position. So still love getting Gentie early because I believe the breakout's coming. I still think he's hobbling through some of an injury. But for Kurt Cousins, yeah, he's currently the QB8 and points. game. He scored 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games. I knew there was going to be a little bit of a process to integrating Fernando Mendoza because Mendoza, throughout his career in college, only took five snaps under center. Like he's basically for Clint Kubiak's play action scheme,

he's never turned his back to the offensive line. And so that takes some time to learn. So I'm glad Mendoza had a month. Now, what I expected to be a month has suddenly become longer because, again, the Raiders are genuinely competing with good teams because of the veteran play of Kirk Cousins, the elite stars, and Gentie and Brock Bowers, and just the coaching by Clint Kubiak. So I don't know when we see Mendoza anymore, honestly, but the timeline got pushed back substantially. Yeah, I mean, without injury and without just like, I don't know, like Kirk getting injured, but not like missing time and starting to just play like shit, which he's susceptible to do.

Like he's had a couple of years like that in his career. But you know, you can't play Mendoza right now. You can't, you got to give Kirk. If Kirk starts playing bad, you're giving him like two weeks after that right now. He has such a cushion with how he's playing. So I don't know, maybe week 10, like let's check back in to see if Mendoza needs to get out there. Man, I'm ready to, I'm ready to call it. I'm not starting anybody in the Packers backfield.

Like they are not, I had high hopes. I had real high hopes, man. For Marsha and Lloyd, whenever they added Caleb Johnson, I was listening. I was interested. Obviously, Josh Jacobs could, you know, all this could get dropped in like a week and we could be sitting here a couple weeks from now.

I'm going like Josh Jacobs is coming back. But I don't even know what matters. Like the offensive line sucks. right now. They're not generating any push up front. Marshawn Lloyd's exactly what we kind of thought Marshawn Lloyd was. We were just hoping that we could will Marshawn Lloyd into like

some kind of different player in the preseason. And then yeah, like Caleb Johnson is Caleb Johnson, man. Like just extremely below average running back and Chris Brooks to start now. So I just, I thought it was going to be fantasy goodness coming out of the Packers backfield. and they seem very willing to heat that shit up through the air way before they'd hand it to any of these running backs that keep fumbling too. Like, God damn, can one of them get through a game without fumbling?

That's the real issue is that Marshawn Lloyd was the one struggling. And in this past week, Caleb Johnson gets inside the five and loses the ball. Thus, they go right back to Marshaun Lloyd. Lloyd at least is the one earning targets. Caleb Johnson, I believe, has three targets all year, whereas just this past week alone, Marshawn Lloyd has 16.5% target share. So if you have to start one,

and I'm in so many different leagues, so many different formats where I am starting, have to start Marshawn Lloyd in some formats, he's the one you want, not Caleb Johnson. Yeah. Yeah, I have more exposure to Marshaun Lloyd than I'd like to admit just because the opportunity to get a running back one at the range he was going in,

is like a bet you'll probably make every time. But at this point, I'm like, dude, just sit down there. Like, I'm going to keep, I'm going to intentionally, like, move you further down the spots on my bench, even though it doesn't matter. Just sort of have to see you. Like, just get further down. Just go down there. Go away.

Panther's offense, man, that was something. You know, the Tet isn't going to do that every week. And you're not going to, you know, play the lions as often as. they've gotten too early. But man, I think the Panthers offense is for real. I know they've got some injuries in the offensive line coming up on them. But for what was an offense where I was like, okay, that's viable, I think, at least viable enough. You know, wide receiver two with a little bit upside.

Chuba and Jonathan Brooks, I was like, what are those dudes? can maybe get enough points to make me care and hit my starting line of every once in a while to four weeks in, I'm like, shit, roll out Bryce Young, roll out co-cour if he's playing, roll out Tet, Chuba, find one of these tight ends

that they keep getting work to, Waller. I did not envision every starter for the Panthers. Being on the like cusp of must-start status. So how do you feel about the Panthers moving forward? know they've had what was it they've had they've had the softest I think offensive facing other defenses schedule by far in the league but yeah it's been it's been a really easy one so that's why i'm still on the fence uh Bryce young's definitely played better than he had in these spots last year because he had he's had layups before which is what the lines defense is like we knew going

into that one that's all excited to write it up for establish a run because it writes itself like You knew every player was going to absolutely blow up because the lines are down to their fourth and fifth safeties. They don't have starting cornerbacks. Kelvin Shepard should have lost his job two games ago. They're the worst defense in the league. So it's very easy to talk about the Panthers having a good game, which is why I'm a little bit confused by the reaction on social media, because we should all zoomed out and said, of course, they did that.

You didn't expect anything different. The four games Bryce Young has played so far have all come against. defense is allowing an above average rate of points per game to his position. So I'm still on the fence. He's definitely looked better, but I'm not declaring anything yet because the matchups have been so soft. I would love for them do, which they will later on,

but I need to see a replay of that Panthers Falcons game when it's not Cooper Rush on the other side of the ball. Because since that time, the Falcons defense has proven, they're actually like one of the best in the league. They lead the league in creating pressure. They have quite literally the best run defense in the entire league. They've allowed the lowest rate of 10-yard carries. And so I need to see the Panthers against

a competent offense that can actually go toe-to-to-toe with them and see how they respond as opposed to having 60 chances against Cooper Rush, and you're not scared of anything because the Falcons aren't going to move the ball. Yeah. Yeah. And they get their by week this week, which is, I don't know, that kind of sucks for them. If you're riding a heater, take a week off. But yeah, yeah, I've just been overall very impressed by their operation. And I know it's easy to go, okay, you're playing defenses that you should beat up on. But past iterations of the Panthers should have beat up on a lot of people and like never did. So I'm like, just show like you're capable of like hammering the nail when it's in front of you.

And that's that's pretty good. And, you know, I don't know if they keep this shit up. But it's a I like the Panthers pieces I own right now for the discounts I was getting them. other side of that coin is whatever the hell is going on with the Vikings and Kyler Murray. I don't want to be attached to anything besides maybe Justin Jefferson at the right price.

With the Vikings past game, I think Kyler's, I think we're hanging on for some reason with Kyler to this hope of him getting back to 20 points per game. And I just, man, if you can't do it against the dolphins, and they didn't, well, they would have had a touchdown of pockets and would have scored that layup he had. But a field goal game against the dolphins, like, brother, this is getting ugly. And he's always due for a concussion or an injury.

And I'm just not, I just, I thought Kyler was going to lift some boats. And now I'm to the point four weeks in where I'm like, actually, he's a problem for this overall offense, the running backs and the past catchers. The Vikings are 4-0 and they are dead last in yards per play and 30th and their rate of touchdown scored on their drives. Basically, it's always the Dolphins and the Packers that rival for the worst offense in the league. You look at every stat, the Vikings, the other team that are down there as Brian Flores is single-handedly winning games. So that's what's happened with Minnesota. We still haven't seen a good game from Kyler Murray. he's more of a game manager than I thought, as opposed to being someone who, as you said, the tide that lifts all boats.

So it's certainly an issue. But like I said, not expecting just Jefferson to play against this really banged up Saints defense. So another good week in fantasy for T.J. Hawkinson coming up. And then the final one on a I've seen enough from my end is, I mean, I knew this going into drafts. And I drafted as such and literally like didn't look at the quarterback sheet until. round nine or ten every single draft. But man, quarterbacks just don't matter at all. They just don't, dude.

Like, you can throw James in there last week, and it's going to work out for you. Oh, this week it's obviously Jacoby Percett. And we saw what Bryce Young did to the lines. Jacobi Perci, Tray McBride, and Michael Wilson's turn. It just doesn't matter, man. It doesn't matter. And with Josh dipping, you know, whether it's injury or whatever,

Josh has had fine games, but not, you know, stuff that made them worthy of a, you know, second round pick in a lot of ways. But Jacobi Percett's going to outscore Josh Allen this week. That's a dumb position is. Yeah. And then with Lamar Jackson, the sprained ankle, like those are the two guys that you can argue at any like quarterbacks do matter. You have to take these guys in the first four rounds. And then Drake May is probably right behind them on the draft list. And you're just like, actually, I can find weeks in here in which,

a, you know, maybe there's a couple of Josh weeks in there where he just went nuclear, but like three of the four weeks that have happened, I could probably find a quarterback that was drafted outside the top 12 that has outscored all of them. Just how it's working out, bud. That's just the quarterback position. So anyway, they just don't matter. It does not matter. If you get, especially specifically in a one quarterback league, if I get on a hook with somebody

and I'm talking trades and they apply any kind of value to any quarterback I have, as long as I have like a solid situation. Like I'm going to like keep talking until I see that thing through. Because if you start applying value to quarterbacks, I'm like, let's trade. Like I said at the beginning, if Drake May and Jane Daniels in the Waverwire, I'm going out of my way for them. And like in a Super Flex league, if I can somehow get Brock Purdy or Josh Allen, I take them.

Other than that, no one moves the needle for me. I'm going to wait and pick up for set, Kirk Cousins last week. Bryce Young the week before. I'm just going to play matchups every single league because it's that easy. Yeah. Yeah. And there's, man, there are some bad defenses out there that are just so predictable right now. There are bad defenses.

And I've never seen this many bad offensive lines or bad run blocking this early in the year. And that explains a lot of what's going on with a lot of running backs. And, you know, we talked about Quinn Sean Juckins earlier. Jonathan Taylor is having the same issue where Skeleton Key. The only skeleton key for fantasy football is running back touches, if you could project them. You know, when Jonathan Taylor gets 24 touches per week,

of course he can fall forward for two touchdowns, but it doesn't look pretty at all. That's the same for Derek Henry as the Rabins are on their fourth center. The Texans running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at a league high 60% rate. Like no one can doubt, Giovante Williams and the Cowboys, just no one is running the ball well.

So your running back has to get 24 touches in order to really like buck that trend. Yeah, they have a Bears running back, basically. Right. Or Jemir Gibbs or Bejohn. Like that's the only ones. Even Jemir Gibbs now has fallen behind Bejohn Robinson the last two weeks since Bejohn is. He's a built, dude, he's so, like it's so cliche,

but he's just built different. No one, like the way his knees bend without actually losing speed is insane. Yeah. Yeah, he's nuts. And I've kind of fallen in love with the guy that I used to not like watching as much. James Cook. I really enjoy watching James Cook run now because it's almost like his like, his legs aren't like cooperating with each other.

Like he'll get to, he'll like look like he's like long striding to the edge with his like outside leg and then he'll like swing his hip and like put a cut on you that you like just didn't think was happening because you're just paying attention to how his body's moving. And James Cook has some subtle badass stuff going on in his game too. But yeah, I think there's a couple things that are happening. almost league-wide.

And it's offensive line injuries and in waves on some teams where you're down to dudes that, you know, are driving truck for a living. And then penalties are insane right now. So we'll talk about Tooting in a minute on the buy list. But he had a shit ton of yards pulled off the table because of, either holding or whatever penalties were happening there. So we're just like, even the good plays that are happening or a lot of them are getting called back.

But okay, here's the next segment. Here's what I wanted to do here is I was looking at my rosters and looking at some of the guys and looking at the rankings as well. I don't think I own all these guys. Maybe I do. I have enough teams. These are some of the most frustrating players thus far in fantasy. And they're kind of across the ball.

board. Well, I don't think anybody in here was taken necessarily after like the six, seventh round. But I'm going to ask John, we're getting some advice, getting some real. We're going to the palm reader right now. And we're getting some like real life, actionable advice like every mid 30s woman does at this at this time of year. Going to the psychic. And I need John to give me some, what the fuck am I supposed to do with these guys? And, you know, It can be, hey, chill, don't do anything. You can be that simple or you can go as long as you want on these guys. But I talked about him a touch earlier.

Ameca, Igbuka. What am I to do with Egbuka? Benchum, I wouldn't sell them because you'd be selling for 75, 50 cents on the dollar, even though we know his projection with Jalen Daniels is extremely low and unusable. And when we get Baker Mayfield back, we're still crossing our fingers that Mayfield comes back healthy. and more accurate than he showed us the first month. But that ceiling that in Buka showed us in being the wide receiver three with over 20 fantasy points per game the first month of last year, like that's what we're holding out.

Hope four, I don't want to sell that for a lesser player. George Pickens. Yeah, I don't know what's going on there, but CD is taking the entire pie. What am I to do with George Pickens? I honestly don't think anything. going on. George Pickens is exactly what we thought for fantasy and that he's Dallas T. Higgins.

He plays with a better receiver, thus the pendulum usually goes towards the better receiver. But George Pickens is good enough to where, of course, sometimes he will get more catches, he'll get more targets. But right now, he's averaging a 20% target share. Last year he averaged 21%, pretty much the same thing.

He's just averaging seven fewer points per week because he hasn't been getting the ball much in the first month because he plays with C.D. Lamb. I just think it's one of those things where even when he lets you down, you're not shocked. The difference is you paid a second round pick this year for it, as opposed to the fifth or sixth round pick you got him for last year, which is also why I didn't draft much of them

because I really don't like spending at the ceiling for players like that. Yeah, Project suppress his value so we can sign him. is going pretty well. Bears past catchers. I know it's weird right now because there's, you know, you got Tyson Baygent back there. But overall,

I think everybody, there's a lot of money spent on Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Roma Dunzee. Not really on Kleefe Raymond, but the Bears past catchers, how long can we, you know,

survive what's going on there? I think it's actually promising what we've seen. from Luther Burden and Colston Loveland as we've moved along here. Colston Loveland, in fact, is one of my buys of the week. Target share, fantasy points, even expected fantasy points per game, have all increased in every single week so far this first month. This past week against the Jets, he was actually the Titan 5 in expected points.

He ultimately finished as a fringe tight in 1 because this points didn't deliver on the volume he received. But he's getting more involved at a, significant increase weekly. So I think before those points to come to fruition, that's when you want to start and buy Colston Loveland. So Colston Loveland, I actually traded for him in a few leagues right before this show. I'm trying to scoop him up everywhere I can before he breaks out.

Nice. Stigant with tight ends. Dalton Kincaid. Everyone was extremely convinced that he just figured it out. And the bills were going to use him as a, you know, a Brock Bowers, you know, their wide receiver two. And then we've had two weeks of Dalton Kincaid looking like last year when he had the lava lamp knee. So I can't really trade. Maybe you can trade Kincaid for profit at this point. But what are we to do with Dalton Kincaid right now? The last two games, his route participation

has decreased to the point where even this past week, Joe Brady came out and mentioned how, frankly, mistake this past game that DJ Moore gets lost late in the second quarter and they basically don't alter the game plan and don't change up Kincaid's usage in order to get him more involved. It was a mistake. Thus, I think we're going to get, we're going to go right back to Dalton Cade, the squeaky wheel being oiled basically, as they know they need to feed him in order to win and remain an explosive offense, especially on Monday night in that shootout in Los Angeles against the Rams for Buffalo. Last time we saw. saw Josh Allen play indoors in LA, it led to a 50-50 game,

or literally both teams, all they did was first stop wins because they could not be stopped whatsoever. So Kincaid is absolutely someone who's going to explode this week against Los Angeles. I wouldn't worry about it. I do think it's funny that we've now seen four quarters without DJ Moore, since he injured his shoulder in week two initially. And in those four quarters, Keon Coleman leads the team with a 30% target chair.

Cancades down at 13 and a half percent. Again, I expected the change, but that's also not to say that if you need a flex this week, you could do worse than Keon Coleman in a game I expect to have fireworks. Yeah, that game could cure everything. Monday night too, fun primetime game. Yeah, that's going to roll, man. All right, the next two, I don't know if there's even an answer. There's anything to be done with these two guys.

One's everyone's favorite. You're either a Rishi Rai guy. Rishi Rice guy or you're not and they uh those people live in in different towns and in different countries even um so uh Rishi rice I really felt like it was uh we were in ramp up season for that she really needed what he could offer and um he was showing some good usage and getting used a little bit differently and then of course of course the second you started feeling positive emotions about Rishie Rice some gets injured something happens so um What are we to do with Rishi Rice and then, yeah,

Bucky Irving is the second one on here of guys that I don't even know if there's a correct answer on moving forward. Rishie Rice wouldn't worry too much just yet. We haven't heard the actual diagnosis of his knee injury he suffered. But we are removing Tyquan Thornton, who is averaging a 20-yard depth of target, like as the downfield guy, we're moving him.

So maybe we're actually opening up more space for Rishie Rice to have catches underneath if he returns. And again, the buy couldn't come at a better time since Rishi Rice just got injured. So I think we're just fine, honestly, if not a buying opportunity for Rishi Rice, since we don't know the extent of its injury. Tyree Kiel, I know is available on most waiver wires. And Drew Rosenhouse is apparently speaking with the Chiefs right now. I have no idea what Tyree Kiel has left, what's in his bag. This is a player who took his recovery deep into the offseason

because the doctors told him you have to be cautious with this since he mangled his knee dislocated it and then also tore multiple ligaments including his ACL that required multiple surgeries. Last year, all we know is that the first month with the Dolphins, he was sixth and being targeted on 37% of his routes and fifth and yards per route run. But again, we're in our 3rd.

30s now removing him from this serious injury, what's in the bag? And will he even sign with Kansas City? So worth a sprinkle and deeper leagues, but still very much questioning if we're going to see him in a couple weeks with Kansas City. Yeah, and then, and then Bucky Irving. Everyone was ready to crown Bucky Irving, the usage God in week one. And then, I don't, again, they got three running backs going. It's dead for Bucky Irving.

He was supposed to break out in this time without Sean Tucker. Sean Tucker, who led the team and carries inside the five, actually out-target, out-carried both Rashad White and Bucky Irving combined with the Bucks last year inside the five-yard line because he's there bruising and quite honestly efficient running back. They like to use the goal line. Sean Tucker comes back his first game back from injury. Gets three touches, that's it. But one of them was the team's first carry this year inside the five-yard line.

and he punched it in. Thus, we're taking away the ceiling for Bucky Irving, who is still being used more, but integrated with Kenneth Gainwell in the passing game. So in terms of like the potential top 12, top 24, Bucky Irving like situation, no, you're dead. I just put the entire Broncos offense,

because I, Sean Payton's the fucking Joker. He's trying to make everyone insane. And besides, oddly enough, R.J. Harvey, everyone else is just like a weekly, I don't know, throw my hands up kind of deal. Yeah, I mean, it's all Bonix, right? Like, Boenix is 31st in EPA for dropback. Currently, he's averaging just six yards per attempt, which is 36 in the NFL so far. You know, it's a little bit of, I still like to attribute Davis Webb or blame Davis Webb for this and taking over play calling duties because it hasn't been fun or looks good. And I still wonder when, not if when Sean Payton takes the play calling sheet back over since he only gave it to Davis Webb because he ended up trusting him this off season.

But so far, you know, in spending multiple picks for first round talent and Jalen Waddle, it's been a disaster. because it's still been the same thing where they don't feature their best players. They're instead, you know, every time you look up, you see R.G Harvey and Nate Atkins catching the ball. So something has to change because Boenix isn't good, but he's Blake Bortles. Like he can create chaos and make something happen. And previously he was a guy who at least didn't turn the ball over and didn't take sacks. That's why Sean Payton loved him. But this year, that hasn't been the case in either direction too.

So something has to change. I don't expect it to change until Sean Payton takes the play calling sheet back. And then the last one was the guy that we were hoping up for a get-right game against the Cowboys. And it just never really manifested itself. And Woody Marks seems to be a problem. Yeah, I mean, I don't even know if Woody Mark's a problem. Like Woody Marks' touchdown run inside the 10-yard line. It came the ensuing play after Dave Montgomery had a 20-yard hook in line.

ladder. So, like, of course, he wasn't involved on the next play because he was tired. But the point is, as we mentioned earlier, no team is getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at a higher rate from the Texans. They, they spend all these assets this offseason, which is why you and I are high on them, because they, they at least didn't intentfully want to be a certain kind of man scheme. So one-on-one blocking running team. And they're not that whatsoever. Like, they've gone backwards, if anything. They're just going to be a team like the Packers that cannot run the ball, even if you put Bejohn Robinson back there right now.

So unfortunately, what are you supposed to do with Dave Montgomery? I don't want to drop him because of Woody Marks gets injured. We're still talking about 20 touches or 40 yards and a touchdown. So I take that. Same thing for Woody Marks. So you just keep them on your bench, honestly. Yeah. Yeah.

Unfortunately. All right. Teddy Ball Games' favorite part of the show. the buys and the cells. So here are my buys, and some of them are for completely different reasons across the board. I know Carnal Tate just popped off, but you probably have a Cornell Tate owner that is, I don't know, there's a certain psychological effect that happens whenever you draft the guy and the top, well, and like, FFPC made of N.

He was going like fifth or six rounds, something like that. And then he really just like, craft. the bed for three weeks straight or at least two weeks straight. And I think the Carnel Tate owner is kind of like, yeah, this is going to be good. And it immediately was not good. And they're like, I'd like to get off of this ride now. And they probably don't believe in the Titans as an offense as a whole. So and to me, I would like the final eight weeks of the season of Carnell Tate. I did not want to live through like the first nine. So, you know, he popped. I didn't want him to pop that hard and that soon. in the season, but Cardinal Tate's a buy for me if someone's trying to get off of that,

trying to catch in at a discounted price from where he was taken preseason. Let's see. Chase Brown is next to my list. The rushing efficiency was absolute dog crap last week, but the passing work is phenomenal. And I think over time, we'll level out and find the middle there with the rushing efficiency and the passing work with Chase Brown. So he's been on my list, I think, twice now. All right. Yeah, he's added to my list this week, too.

I agree with them. I don't necessarily, I get your point. Like, I'm dealing with so many injuries and trying to navigate so much in all my leagues that the last thing I want to do is buy Titans players. I get what you're coming from. But I'm just, I just have to draw the line somewhere. And anyone who plays with Cam Ward, I'm just not going to buy. But Chase Brown, I will agree with you on.

And to add further context, so the bingo's first four matchups, Tampa Bay, Houston, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville. All those defenses are above average and their rushing success rate allowed and their rate of stuffing running backs at the line of scrimmage. Over the next month, though, Cincinnati has the fifth easiest schedule

and fantasy points allowed to running back. So now is the time to buy Chase Brown to tack on finally rushing yards with that high target share. The next one on my list is not because I anticipate both these players will be playing for the Titans soon. That's because one of them won't be, I think. I think either Pollard, Tony Pollard or Tadgey Spears will be playing elsewhere pretty soon.

Oh, okay. That's why. I think Shepter put out something about, you know, Pollard's getting looked at for trade. So I'm not, I don't want the Titans offense. That makes, okay, that's some fourth wall shit. Yeah. Yeah, if you can get one of these dudes for just like nothing, which I think is the going rate at this moment. I don't even know what player, like what makes sense for, I don't know, like a tight end that plays sometimes for Tony Pollard. Like, I don't, I don't even know. Just look down your list and you want like Greg Dulcich and a fucking something else for Tony Pollard. Like,

let's make that deal. Dude that doesn't have a starting tight end right now. Um, but yeah, I think they're about to split that backfield up and someone's going to go elsewhere. I don't know where, but it's got to be better than Tennessee. Then next in the list, you mentioned the Patriots schedule softens up. I think the trivia on Henderson owner is probably tired of getting yanked around a little bit. And you can probably get Henderson for a bit of a discount. And schedule is favorable. I think if Remandre makes it through the full season without getting like hard benched for fumbling or getting injured,

like I'd be extremely we've we've done the Henderson thing a couple times this year and I've told you why he's he's always a good long-term investment but the immediate schedule for the running backs is awesome and I think you're at the point right now where consensus on Henderson's probably as low as it's probably going to get and we've been here before with him I don't know why it's so bipolar with him but it is when it's when it hits the bottom you know like okay we're going to come right back up at a little while. And then if you look off in the horizon, Drake May's coming to life and he knows he's going to be back sooner than, not necessarily sooner or later,

but you're going to close your eyes and you're going to be like, oh, shit, AJ Brown's a week away. AJ Brown owner is probably pretty, pretty salty about the AJ Brown week one injury and it's probably tired of sitting there's another psychological effect of watching a guy on your bench if your team sucks. And you're like, I could get something that could help me right. now maybe i should do that uh j brown seems like a nice buy window and then i mentioned tootin earlier he's playing really really well um and had like a thousand yards take off the board last week and a

touchdown because the silly penalties that were going on but tutin rules man the usage is great uh his efficiency's incredible and he just hasn't had that like explosive like super pop game uh as of yet and i think it's just a matter of it might be this week and the Eagles who were trying to tap out, or it could be in a couple weeks, but Tutin is still a buy for me. They've cut basically, at least this past game, Amir Doolin and Le Quint Allen out of the offense, too, because before their sprinkling of touches were enough to take away. But this past week, 76% of backfield touches for Tutton, which was a season high mark. Yep.

He's taking it over. I know Christian Regan's had a decent touchdown run in there. he's a fine ad as well. Like if someone dropped Chris Rodriguez, like we put a bit on on Chris Rodriguez and a main event because he was on the wire and we were like, seems like a pretty smart thing. But yeah,

both those backs are running pretty well and Tutin is just taken over it. So, yeah, he's call around on Tutin if you can. You jump into your eyes. Yeah, let's go ahead and do mine. I'll stick with the Jaguars theme and start with Parker,

Washington. Trevor Lawrence has an attempted 30, passes in any game this year because the Jaguars are too good. And all they do in their wins is blow the other team out. Even this past week against the Bengals, they had a 22 to 10 lead with six and a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. But this time, Washington's route shares the team wide receiver one hasn't dipped. It's not a rotation.

He's the one who's out there as Brian Thomas splits routes with Josh Cameron and Jacoby Myers comes in as their wide receiver two. So still love getting Parker Washington low because when the Jaguars getting shootouts, that's the guy you need to have, arguably a top 12 wide receiver the rest of the way. Colston Loveland, I already talked about, but want to go back to him for all the reasons I mentioned earlier. And then finally, Michael Wilson is coming on and everyone is catching up as his target share

has increased in every single game this year to the point where this past game against the Giants, a season high 37% mark. But he hasn't hit a ceiling yet. and it's coming this week against the Detroit defense. Only CD Lamb has more targets than Michael Wilson since week two. And if you thought, you know, Tetrault and McMillan, 190 yards, a couple touchdowns against the Lions was good. Again, Michael Wilson, Jacoby Rosset,

and the Cardinals defense that is arguably as terrible as the Lions defense are coming to town and what is going to be 60 to 50 first stop wins. Yeah. Yeah, that, I don't know, I was texting people some crazy. shit during that Tet versus the Lions game. I was like, this is the craziest performance I've seen from a wide receiver like in such like it was like Megatron shit. Like he was just doing whatever he wanted. Yeah.

Like across the field. And I was like, is this a Tet thing or is this a lion? This is a, it's, it's in the middle somewhere of is it a Tet thing minus Jalen Coker, uh, or a Lions thing. All the above. Yeah, all the above is is applicable. But I was like, God damn, dude. every time they need to play,

Tet was just like mossing people. He's getting open across the middle. Like, it was impressive. All right, on the cells. This one might be controversial, but I don't know. Just follow me here. Tyler Huntley is about to be the starting quarterback for the Ravens

for, I would say, probably two or three weeks. Tyler Huntley has a real hard time throwing for north of 150 passing yards in a game. He'll run. He'll run. We'll get some yards in the ground. That doesn't really help your wide receivers. I don't think Zay Flowers is going to have the greatest yards per route run season that's ever existed in the NFL.

So if you just bring back regression statistically to just like, okay, let's say Zay Flowers is a top 10 wide receiver. You completely nuke the offensive upside with Tyler Huntley in there. I just think you could get an entire goddamn boat for Zay Flowers right now, whereas in a week or two, you're going to get just exactly where you had to draft him at. if you're trying to move him. And if you're, if you're a Zayflower's team, and he's missed time already consistently as well. So there's just like enough things there where I'm going like, nothing wrong with Zayflowers.

I think he's been incredible. He's had two remarkable halves of football and then a Cowboys game thrown in there. And I think he's spectacular. I just don't think you can be spectacular for the entire season. And then you have just a dog-ass quarterback rolling in there. So if you can get, if you can fix. other positions and get a wide receiver to backfill or maybe you're really stacked at

wide receiver and you're like, man, I have nothing at running back and you can just get like multiples of things starters for you and blue chip players for Zay Flowers right now. Like I would just throw them on the block. It's one of those like throw them on the trade block in your league and see what comes back type thing. Because people are some teams are not having a lot of fun right now. You know what's fun? Zayflowers.

I'd like to overpay for Zayflowers right now and have fun with it. So he seems like a profit, a profit token at this moment. Likewise, the guy that just got 30 carries for the bears in a very run heavy offense. Maybe even when Caleb Williams comes back, Calman Nungai, who I haven't seen an update on the broken finger or whatever the thumb was going on with him yet. Or if he's going to play through that or if that's going to be a week-to-week thing. but granted he's he's healthy and can play and he doesn't have a long-term injury calm on guy seems like a good time to get off him because i think it seems weird to you know send a guy that you just gave a contract to three-year contract to the doghouse

but that's what they did with the andre swift we're not we're not above any psychological high school coach games uh in chicago thank you we'll we'll still bench our star running back just because CMC Christian McCaffrey been fine but man the carries are have been a fraction

of what he got last year the receptions have been a fraction of what he got last year I think two thirds on both is about accurate and so it's just it's just a soft it's just like a soft dying off on CMC

and maybe they're trying to ramp them up later in the season but I would get off of this soft fading away from his usage before people notice too much. And then kind of likewise with Skataboo, we get really excited every other week whenever his usage goes up. And then we, like last week, whenever they decided they wanted to do a three-headed monster with Tyrone Tracy and Najee Harris and Skataboo. Usage comes back down. Doesn't catch as many balls. kind of just goes back to trapback status.

And then maybe next week he'll bounce back. Either way, I don't need to deal with it. If you can get, you know, top end return for Scatibu. He's hitting my sell list for the second time this year. And then Debo, I did sell Devo. So I don't have to prove to anybody that Devo is sellable. But, yeah, he's actually playing pretty well and getting utilized in fun ways for the 49ers, shockingly. and so I'd get off that before it before the age wall hits him,

which seems to happen like eight weeks in every season for the last three or four years. So Debo, enough Devo would be fun. The only thing I'll say about the good running backs, like Nung Guy and Christian McCaffrey is that, well, one, it is the time if you're 1 in 3, 0, and 4, like if you have Brock Bowers, Kenneth Walker, good players, you are looking to sell them for multiple starters because you just have to field a wind, now team every single week as your before your playoff chances and odds disappear entirely. So you have no choice.

Like trying to win is much better than just saying I had a good picking Kenneth Walker and losing every week. It doesn't fucking matter. So yeah, like I'm checking on the one and three teams. And I'm, I'm, you know, even offering, like I said, I traded Bowers in a league or two for this show as well just because I have a couple one and three squads that I need the restaters immediately. and that was my selling point is that I am not taking less than three,

but if you would like a very good player, if you have three starters stood in my way. So that's what I'm doing. But for Christian McCaffrey, it's just hard because, like, good running backs, top 12 running backs, fringe, top 12 running backs. Those are the players who are of need right now. And so it would take a lot for me still to move him. I understand if you're desperate, but, you know,

everything so far is still checked out. RB9 in points per game. he and Ashton Genti are the only running backs running around on over 60% of their team's dropbacks. Only RJ Harvey, oddly, has a higher target share through four games than Christian McCaffrey. So again, the usage is perfectly fine. But yeah, if you're in a desperation mode, you need some more starters. Feel free to swap them. Yeah, or if you have just luck boxed into having Emmanuel Wilson and you won Dolly Gordon bid,

and they're like your fifth and six running back and CMC's up there and you're just like, Jesus, I have like five startable guys right now. Yeah. And you're hurt somewhere else. That's kind of when I look at like, okay, can I get off CMC before? But yeah, who are you? I'll take a different approach, actually, and say I am also swapping running backs. But I'm doing ones that I don't think have staying power.

Or at least I'd like to bet against it. One would be Brian Robinson. I especially like trading mediocre roles in players after prime time games, because those are the ones that everyone watches, and then they become hyper-focused, thinking, like, this role is here to stay. Brian Robinson does not have any odds. The book won't even lay them for, like,

taking the role, the starting role from Bejohn, Be God Robinson. Like, that doesn't make any sense at all. So with Michael Pinnock's under center the last couple of weeks, Atlanta's pass rate has plummeted to dead last in the league as their running backs have stacked the third most expected points out of all backfields in that time because they've played bad offensive lines and bad offenses and the Saints and the Packers and thus their pass rush and their team as a whole has won

out and they've instead now be Brian Robinson that time has been able to handle 10 and 14 carries and positive game scripts. But again, when the positive game scripts go away, just like we saw from Blake Corum, Tyler Algier, so many others last year, you can't use these players. They're zeros. And so I'll happily trade Brian Robinson. following a two touchdown game in prime time very easily because again he can't win be john robinson's job same thing goes for allie gordon who less confident about this one ollie gordon was my top pickup last week for everyone uh and the good there was a lot of good and that he had uh team high or running back high 69 percent of their back they'll touches his 53 12 and 12 yard runs against the bingle

against the bikings were three of the top five longest runs for the dauph all year long. Ollie Gordon was a better prospect of Oklahoma State than Jalen Wright the entire time. So that's why he was the player we were betting on. At the same time, Dolphins backfield without Devon A. Chan, all they totaled was 17 touches last week. Ollie Gordon, that 69% share, it was 11 touches as a whole. That's a really hard number to think that he can continue having that kind of success, regardless of how well he played in the toughest match at possible. So if you'd like to take that scene, ceiling he showed with a touchdown in 100 yards because you can flip it now for like a

someone who would have been a fifth or sixth round value of just a month ago during the off season be my guest and have at it. Yeah, the bizarre thing about that Dolphins game is like 11 total. Well, that's that's like as close I think as connected of a game as they might have for a long time. And there are scenarios in which they're down by 10. going into the second half always and they have to throw more. And so I don't see a scenario in which like Holly Gordon's going to get those 25 touches or whatever the dream is. Like they just,

they won't be in those games where you get the luxury of using a running back that much. And last week they were. They were connected to the bike. I mean, it's a 15 to 10 game at the end. And, you know, only got 11. So I don't know if you're not going to get used in that scenario. like I'm not sure when it's going to happen for you. But yeah, getting off Holly Gordon would be really nice.

Yeah, just look at the teams across and just go, somebody's about to pick up a running back and start them this week. Yeah. That's about to happen. Oh, I mean, to be fair, like, I'm going to start Ellie Gordon this week. That's the problem. I'm going to say if you have him and all of a sudden you don't need him, ask around to see if you can sell him.

But I'm on teams where I would have started this week. Yeah, we are we are in the the biweek slash injury apocalypse sweet spot where I just looked at a team before he came on and I was like, I was like, oh, okay, cool, that sucks. Let's go ahead and move her eyes down here. Okay, all right, let's go ahead and move a Tet down here. Okay. And then I was like, oh, shit, I'm picking up a wide receiver and throwing him into the lineup like now. That feels so shitty, dude. It feels just like, I don't know.

It was like you're out here like turning tricks on the fantasy streets. Like, ah, wide receiver, but I've never had any interest in owning. Oh, I picked up, I picked up Darius Cooper. And I'm in a sick of guillotine league, though. 32 teams, don't even get me started. Jesus Christ. And I picked up Darius Cooper off the waiver wire. He scored two touchdowns and I moved on next week.

Let's go. That rules. Yeah, I just picked up. up Romeo Dobs and I'm like, let's go, baby, wide receiver two, Romeo Dobs. Time to get the wheels up. All right, we'll, I'll bypass this part in the notes, but I'll just tell everybody, please go check out. Nathan Yankee is one of the best in the industry. ETR is obviously my favorite, but if you do venture to other sites and use other information as well, and I just wanted to credit Nathan Yonke with his mismatches and zone versus as he should because a lot of people don't, and he's the

only one like spitting out live data within since he works for pro football focus 30 seconds after the games and then a lot of people take the summaries and then don't cite it and he gets upset about that i've talked to him i had beers with them this summer at the fantasy football expo oh yeah nathan yonki does does amazing work he rules dude like he's been doing so much stuff this season and just building season to season on different tricks he has in his bag uh for reports and stuff. But anyway, I was just mesmerized by the mismatch report for this week of your favorite wide receivers going against teams that have zone tendencies or man tendencies or whatever. So go check out that article. It's that cross section of connecting like real football. It's going to

happen on the field with this fantasy game that we play in in different ways other than just like, oh, dude ran a long way and crossed their line, an imaginary line on a field. Like there's just how teams are going to attack these offenses and how you can get an edge by seeing which players perform well and what the defense is going to present to them. I think it's pretty cool stuff. But as always, check, establish the run, rest of season 150's tomorrow. Rest of season 150 on the free Establish the Run podcast feed. Yeah. And Diggles, WaiverWire Pod, if you need to get more in depth than we just got is available for you as well, as well as team by team by.

by Levittan and Silva today on the podcast street. So yeah, man, we're getting to the weird part of the season, but I think we're figuring some shit out. So I left Sunday night being like, okay, I feel like I know, feel like I know what this thing is right now. And that's probably a scary place. It's probably the wrong feeling to have.

But I felt pretty confident. I was like, okay, yeah. Overall, most teams are hitting. And I feel like I read some of this stuff, right and have a have a direction to go so um appreciate your time man this is awesome um yeah hope you have a great week and uh appreciate your work as always uh number one everyone go to establish the run and get a get a subby there um if you're serious about this thing that uh that we do and that we like doing um as well and thank you to the dumb zone for having us on their youtube

channel we'll uh and if you go ahead and do you have any suggestions about formatting as uh ted emberg did the first week, we will happily adjust as we figure this thing out. Yeah, yeah. Appreciate you guys. We will see you next week. Win them all. Don't forget there's five weeks. They're coming.

All right. Have we going.