The Dumb Zone FREE - Action Is The Juice: Week One Action Items

Episode Date: September 18, 2026

Mike “Machine” Marshall and John Daigle from Establish the Run bless us with fantasy football knowledgeWeek 1 reaction and waiver wire targets from week 2 ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

I don't do it, man. Let's do it, man. Oh, nice. We got some comments already. Hey, what's up? What's up, Josh? What's up, Shane? We're going to get rolling. All right, the action is the juice. It's Mike. It is John Daigle from Establish the Run, the busiest man in the goddamn business right now. This is awesome, man. I'm really happy we could do this, number one. Thank you for carving out some time in your schedule to make this work. I was really excited after the first, we did for the preseason and just through the idea Dan and Jake, because I know they're fans of ours and we obviously love them back in the same kind of way and was like, hey, man, Tuesday night seems like a fun time for me and Dagle just to sit out here for an hour and just break down all the shit as much as we can do in one hour, just power pack that son of a bitch and go for it. And I appreciate you doing this, man. And it's great to see you.

How are you? Jake is definitely a fan of the people on this show by the way he, the way he talks about it on his own show though not sure he's a fan of the content having said that we are fans of the content i believe dan is as well so excited about that and just excited to join you like you said we're going to do this for an hour uh i don't like to be i'm busy guy but it's just a crazy time of the year week two is always the hardest everyone thinks like oh that's the easiest we have data but my job is to our job is to prognosticate thus the data we have we are constantly asking does this matter and if it does or if it doesn't why and that

gives me a headache every single time of the year on this day turning around content trying to understand what matters and what doesn't yeah yeah i mean you're asking to make educated guesses on really dog shit information and even even me going through my like you know all the notes by the way, all the notes tonight, all the stats I get are, I'm interested in what you look at, but Nathan Yonkey, and then Dwayne McFarland, for sure. Those are two that I go through. And if I'm not quoting somebody's stat, it's one of those two guys. And then Ryan Paganetti on Twitter, all the stats that I, that I'm quoting are from those dudes. So if you want to, like, you know, do your own little research in the week, those are the three dudes I follow.

But I'm interested on how you, who you track, where you get your. your advanced analytics from as well. In order to start turning things around on Sunday night, I'm usually working through the Sunday night game. It's pro football focus on the live side of it to pull in my own CSVs and then start filtering and sorting through in my own database. And then this year, I also have the benefit of using Sumer Sports,

so Sumer Live, which is, it's unlocked the matrix for me. I can't wait to understand what matters and then start using it because I can ask the right questions. I'll definitely use it for a couple stats tonight as I have done at my columns and establish the run. And then also the fantasy points data suite 2.0, which includes some interesting things like on-off splits, advanced splits that I can look at pass rate over expectation, EPA per play, all the stuff that football guys laugh at fantasy football, for example, even though we're using the same exact data to come to our conclusions. We're just also using it for our own game we play as well.

So here's my theory on at least like week one or two, maybe even three. I don't know. To me, week one is those teams come out and they've trained for whatever two months with this group of players. And they want to show you exactly this is like my best idea of how I win a football game. this is how I would like to go about it. Obviously, there are injuries. Obviously, there are some things that will limit your playbook.

And you can get into a spot where you get into weird games for sure. And we'll talk about that because that skews so much data and just like ruins information across the board whenever you get into these weird games. But to me, like, I'm building this book of what I think the 26, 27 fantasy season is going to be to where I have this accurate read on what every. team is like offensively what they're going to do in a matchup and then trickles down to what each player can bring to my fantasy team and so I consider like week one two maybe even three like 50% of that knowledge base like I consider that a lot heavier than I do the later weeks and so and then every week after that I'm like maybe that's 10% more information until I go to this 100% picture hopefully week eight hopefully before then honestly

If I'm not getting a full picture until week eight, week 10, that I'm probably trailing. But I think those first couple weeks, like I spend a lot of my fab early on just guys that pop up situations that emerged that no one saw. How do you see this early just flood of information that gets thrown at you week one and two factoring against everything else you're going to see down the road? the hardest part is making sure I'm not ignorant towards my priors. When something happens that I didn't expect or even if I did expect it, then asking and researching how and why. For example, this one does confirm my priors, but I think it helps out the most because I look everywhere on social media

and I see people talking about picking up Bryce Young, for example, when I think it's just the easiest thing. Maybe this means we're ahead of the game. I don't know. It is the easiest thing that our prior suggested, and even Ben Johnson knew the Bears defense is going to rival last year's Cowboys defense as the worst in the league. And they think that's okay.

They want to be the Super Bowl champion saints and that they'll allow explosives on you, but they want to create turnovers and they can outscore you by a 40, 50 burger at any point. And that's exactly what they did in week one, even in as everyone's seen the famous clip already, going forward in the second quarter, fourth and one of their own 21.

Ben Johnson understands the assignment, has mentioned things in that athletic interview he did, and that he knows his defense is due for regression. No coach says that, by the way. My favorite quote of all of it, I get goosebumps when I talk about it, is that they asked him about his offense and the running game. And he said,

the running game, this is a quote, by the way. The running game is the haymaker. It sets up play action, which is the haymaker, do you fear death? That is literally the same. sentence he said because again he understands the assignment.

Comp that by the way to the Cowboys opening drive that I know we've all talked and heard about by now, but there are teams actually trying to win and there are teams trying to tell you they're trying to win. And there's a big difference in those two philosophies. So I just think Bryce Young for famous football, though, to back up a little bit. Second most passing yards of his career, third most yards per attempt of his career. and then everyone rushes, you know, in our industry and says, go pick up Bryce Young.

No. Like Bryce Young is copy, paste, replaced with whomever is playing the Bears that weekend. This week, by the way, it's a nuclear blowup for a streaming option Carson Wins. Yeah. And I'm glad you brought up the Bears and like their running game because it does feed into one of these. I think one of the things I actually do pretty well is mesh like. real football stuff with the fantasy stuff. I think we talked about this previously.

And like what people are trying to do to get a, because these dudes, they're all psychos. They're all incredibly committed to their job. They all love balls so GD much. They're all trying to find that little bitty edge. And it's like, that's what they get off on.

They get off on find of these little like formation edges. And like I have this player that no one can actually cover but can also block. And one of the league-wide trends, that like has continued to to pop up at least through week one. And it's an echo from last season is 13 personnel, which is if no one knows what that is, that's three tight ends in the field at a time, right? So 13 personnel is up to 9% usage in week one.

Last year, previous peak, I think was, or the any previous year total was 5.7. So that's an outlier. If you look at the graph, right, like we're starting off at a crazy high clip of 13 personnel. fullbacks on the field 12.4% of the plays. That was 7.5% week one of last year. And QBE under center is 66.5% on first downs.

And that was 45.9% week one last year. So I say all that of these coaches are looking for these little tiny things that how do I change the game? Or how do I, everyone got light? How do I run a heavy offense? Everyone got heavy. How do I run a light offense? and to me it's this 13 personnel, it's fullbacks, and it all comes back to these guys wanting to be able to run

in situations that say you shouldn't be able to run the ball for an explosive here. Like head coaches, football coaches, those meatheads get off on that shit, man, being able to run on a third and four. And I think like the jock part of the office is winning right now in the NFL. And like the nerds are like being quieted. Because obviously because of what's happening with 13 personnel and under center. And under center can got to be anything. That's a tricky one.

But like 13 personnel and fullback usage is old school, like bust you up football. And that's an interesting thing in itself. But then you got to think about like what that means to NFL offenses. You were wide receivers, right, on the field. If you've got three tight ends out there, you got probably you got one wide receiver most likely. So what do you think about at least the early usage? I assume it's going to stay close to this. I don't know.

Everyone might hate it week two and say we didn't work well enough. But just the 13 personnel, the fullbacks, the old school kind of like bust your ass football that we saw in week one. For what we do, it's definitely worth noting because you want the players that run routes and two wide receiver sets for those heavy tight-in teams. Unfortunately, for example, that wasn't Jaden Reed in week one for the Packers. It was instead Matthew Golden, who Matthew Golden was a good value. I believe we even talked about him in the seven-hour marathon that was connected together, which, by the way, I did listen to you and Chuck and everyone while at the gym, actually. Because I'm not a music guy.

I'm a podcast and audio book guy when I work out. That's dedication, bro. Like no music at all? I think that's serial killer is what it is, unfortunately. Dude, I'll listen to the worst music while working out. I'll be like, like, shit I haven't listened to in 20 years. I'm like, I know this is bad, but you know what? We're listening to this system of a down album straight through, brother.

Just hate breeding your deep squats. Yeah. But for the Packers also, for what we do, I don't want to, my worst fear for what I do is suggesting players be dropped a week or two before they explode. And so I've even gotten lots of questions about Jaden Reed, who we just talked about even though he played behind Matthew Golden. there was so much nuance in week one that Brian Flores, the madman he is, blitzes Jordan Love at a league high 74% rate.

I've never seen that number in my entire life. And that makes sense that Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, two deep speedsters who can beat man-on-man coverage, they're the ones who explode then in that matchup against the Vikings. But also then we have this upcoming game because the Jets, the totals already increasing slowly because it's quietly going to be one of the highest scoring outputs of the entire week because both defenses can't stop the other offense. So the last thing I'm going to do now is drop Jane Reed, understanding that it's a

terrific matchup to stream Jordan Love and just to play all the Packers offense as a whole. So I'm looking into that. Yeah. And the last thing I want to do is I kept on going was just drop a player like that before he potentially explodes. We got better play from the Jets to. I keep mentioning streaming quarterbacks. Gino Smith was actually delivered the most catchable, the highest catchable target rate in the entire NFL. It was against the Titans

who we've lost complete faith on after only one week. Yeah. But I expected to be a good matchup. Yeah, that was nasty. I like checked in on that when I was flying home from California. So I got to bounce around quite a few games.

And for some reason, Jets, Titans was on one of them. And I was like, dude, you have two possessions down and you feel like it's 50. Like the Titans cannot. piece together a drive. But yeah, okay, let's, obviously there are a lot of duds week one.

You know, I think Colston Loveland is probably the most quotable and everyone keeps going. His team scored 59 points and he had a zero burger and it's like, yeah, that's going to happen. But he's not my answer. And I don't know if I have a great answer, but to you, guy that lost the most value, after week one. That means you have to have value to lose, obviously. And that means like you can't sell this guy for what you wanted to sell him for before that.

You know what I mean? Like Colston Loveland, I can sell Colston Loveland for market price, probably the same exact thing as it was free season. But guy for you that lost the most value after week one. I would say the biggest, oh, shit eyes I got when I was looking into everything was Sequin Barkley, especially as much as I touted Sacon Barkley.

I have not lost faith yet, again, especially after week one, with teams with new play callers, because it would make sense that in live football, since preseason is not a real thing anymore, even the coaches don't give a shit about it. It does make sense that these teams then started slowly. But to look up, even though the Eagles had a lead, a commanding lead against the commanders for most of the time.

But then you look into everything, and they're actually one of the least efficient office, offenses and the entire league. Gain less than two yards per carry on first down. They were bottom three in EPA for play as well. The Eagles finished. And then Saquan Barkley, just a 21% route share compared to last year being around 50%. Disaster in terms of usage, quite honestly.

Again, I'm not worried too much, especially because we have this upcoming get right game against that terrible Titans team we just talked about. But was it the usage of a player who, who could rival as like a top six running back. No, it wasn't close to last year. And so that's what gets to be a little bit worried based on things that I should be freaking me out about after week one. Yeah, and I think the stat that freaked me out about him

was the yards before contact stat. I think he had, what was it? I mean, it was like bottom third, which means they just aren't blocking guys up, right? He's getting contacted really early. at the line of scrimmage for a team that, I don't know, I mean, half of that equation is that the Eagles can block really well up front and can scheme really well up front.

And if they can't and the usage isn't there, like, yeah, you're right. Wait until he plays the Titans. Maybe pops off and has a Sequin game or two. And at that point, I don't know if you are willing to sell or not. if he does actually start doing what you want him to do. But yeah, I think running backs have to be the answer, I think, on who lost the most value because wide receivers can get chalked up to like weird situations.

Like you could say Drake London, right? But then it's like, okay, well, it's going to be a different quarterback. You could say Colston Loveland and then next week he pops off and I'm like, that's exact same value. Arkley scared me up top. Quintchon Judkins definitely did exactly what I thought Quintchot and Judkins was going to do, which is just a trap back

on a really bad team that's never going to get in the red zone. Like at all, that's not that valuable. Like, that's just 60 yards. That's one Christian Watson play. You know what I mean? The concern for me was that the last four most recent players to suffer a fibula fracture. I can't recall if we talked about this or not.

I've eaten lunch since then, so I don't remember anything I said. averaged 6.7 fewer points per game the following year when they returned. Everyone always believes the theory is they're getting a discounting fan's football because this player is eventually going to work themselves back into shape. But actually they return and they're not anywhere near explosive or as efficient as they were the year prior. And so I typically try to avoid those players, which is why on the surface, Cam Scataboo and Juckins stood out for like their route shares and just,

being receiving backs in a dead zone, but also we could just point to those serious injuries they suffered and say like, actually, I don't mind avoiding them either. Yeah. Yeah, we'll get to Scataboo later just because I think that was, there's some weird stuff in that game that. Especially the Cowboys defense. Yeah, yeah, exactly. That's a big one.

Okay, so you write the waiver wire target article for ETR, which I hope everyone's already already checked out over there and Establish the Run. So talk me through some of your reads here on targets. You don't have to read the whole thing. I would advise everybody to go check that out. But just who are guys that are piquing your interest in terms of spending your $5 this week? And we do have a free look-ahead section, basically.

When you click on the article and establish the run, regardless of if you're a subscriber or not, like the chart, my streamers, my injury report, since that is my job, I stay at home on Sundays or I'm out on Sundays with my laptop and actually charting all the injuries that I believe matter for fantasy fallouts. That's all available for everyone to look at. And then the updates I do behind the scenes pretty much for the next 48 hours,

that's what goes behind the paywall beyond the actual column. I do think it's best, though, if we zoom out for a second, because I know it pays the bills. And so I know there are probably people listening on this channel that have some players who shouldn't be available, that just slipped through the cracks. Perhaps they played in, you know, eight or ten team home leagues.

So I do want to mention that you should at least, if you're listening, go out and look at your waiver wire and see if any of in order, let's start with Josh Jacobs is out there in case he was dropped because people believe he's going to be suspended for the entire year. Historically, that has not happened in the end of, NFL unless they receive the league and Roger Goodell video evidence for better or worse.

I'm just doing my job here. And with this case, it does seem like there's been an official seal in court with the video, including by both Josh Jacobs and requested by the domestic abuse victim. Thus, it doesn't seem like anything is going to come of this outside of like the six game commissioner exempt list of suspension. So you're just going to have Josh Jacobs, a player who is. was drafted prior and rounds four through five, right? You're just going to have him there on the way of wire if he's there.

So you should definitely go out and try to grab him. Matthew Golden is a player we talked about as well. Someone who had never earned a 17% target share at any point, any season, dating back to his collegiate ears at Texas, comes out. And this game against the Vikings leads the team with 12 targets in two wide receiver sets again. Very encouraging usage, especially since the Packers finished. with the six highest pass rate over expectation.

That stat for anyone that doesn't know, basically just ways compared to the rest of the league, similar to a WRC plus, if you're a fantasy baseball fan, how often you pass per average based on that situation compared to other teams. Packers were the sixth highest proving, at least without Josh Jacobs for these first six weeks,

they want to be a passing offense, which then also leads me to say, if Jaden reads out there, because he was dropped or just wasn't drafted in this shallow league of yours, grab him as well. And then it's a tie between, in my opinion, curious to hear your thoughts, Josh Downs and Jalen Coker.

The range of outcomes for Josh Downs and the Colts offense was always in week one, given that Alec Pierce was returning from ankle surgery and Keenan Allen signed with the team less than a month ago. The range of outcomes for Josh Downs was to lead the team in Routes run. He did so, except he did so with Daniel Jones, thus that 13% target share was a pedestrian rate

compared to Pierce and Allen who led the team in targets. So it's a wide range of outcomes for Josh Downs. It could go down further if Allen and Pierce get more acclimated. But that means there's volatility there and volatility includes upside. So I don't want to ignore that.

Over Jalen Coker, who literally was the wide receiver won in all of fantasy football, but outside of playing the bears, we're asking ourselves, how often can Bryce Young, not only carry two receivers and first rounder, Tetaroa McMillan Macmillan and Jalen Coker,

but also how often logically is Jalen Coker going to out-target the first round player who profile as Mike Evans just last year? And so that's why I kind of tie Josh Downs and Jalen Coker logically if they're out there. Yeah, I mean, the way I play the waiver wire typically is I've got to be in a really bad spot to need to throw Josh Downs into a starting lineup right off the waiver wire or even a jaden reed maybe golden could flirt with it on some weeks um so i'm kind of looking for the most upside that could possibly be there and to me

cocker is that out of that group now whether or not he's going to take most of your money to get him that's probably accurate at this point because people are pretty savvy about just sorting by like points scored last week um they can figure that out but then like the deep dive stuff like the josh down's leading the team of target stuff, they don't really know how to look up, right? In your main, in your home leagues. But I mean, I've, I tried to acquire some shares of cocker. The asking price is kind of crazy in Dynasty. I don't have any leagues in which he's available.

I wish there was. I would put a nice bit out there. I have him in a handful of FFPC dynasty leagues and I'm like, cool, this is great. Do I want to throw them in the starting lineup and just like close my eyes and, you know, close the laptop and wipe my hands and move forward? Not necessarily. really, but he's kind of out targeted Tet for a little bit now. And I don't know if that's, I don't know what causes that.

I think he's a really good player. I think he has the highest upside of pretty much anybody, but I put him on the level of golden. And then Josh Jacobs can obviously be an RB1. So that's a different story of that collection of guys. But above everybody else that you wrote in your article of like Veilet, Douglas, Antonio Williams, all those guys, Jalen Coker's at the top for me for sure. Downs is a guy I'll take a peek at.

I do believe in the talent of Josh Downs, and it's going to take a lot for me to quit what that guy's really good at. I just don't know if he's the most get on a new team, please God kind of guy that I've ever seen. Like the next team he goes to, he's just going to tear it up. It's going to be like, you know, Wes Welker going to the Patriots or something,

and they're going to figure out how to utilize him. But, I mean, they're all pretty interesting. Jaden Reed's kind of boring to me. I hate fighting the Jaden Reed fight. I had him the year he blew up and then chasing that a year after and just like constantly telling yourself, well, hey, the yards per route run is awesome. You know, that type of stuff is tough. But I think Coker excites me the most.

And that's kind of I play the waiver wire. I want to find a league winner down there. And Coker's probably the most likely. And those situations, I did. It's going to take a lot to win Coker in a 10 team league. I'm assuming if he's out there. So out of a $100 fad budget, assuming everyone uses free agency acquisition dollars, I did suggest a range of 43 to 64, but you also know your league. Like you know if the other nine people in your league show up and they only have been like 17 bucks.

But honestly, Jalen Coker, we know is a guy who should have been drafted. And so like you aren't going to find that in free agency when this is a question you asked at the top of the show. we usually spend our most dollars in free agency in the first three weeks because that's when the most usable players come from as we learn roles. Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, like these guys should have been drafted. So of course you're spending the most dollars on players, you can then go out and use. Yeah. And of the other group that you wrote about, I think the one that isn't, you know, whatever you want to label it. I saw your tweet earlier over like Free Agency Narnia. And I'm like, yeah, that's kind of what it is sometimes.

But of the non-Narnia group, whatever we want to call this group. The actual pick-ups. Yeah, the actual, you know, whenever you get into these dirty leagues. Kailon Black, I wish everyone would shut off about him because I was like, I watched him, you know, the opening night. And I was like, ooh, there's something here. I see something. And then the whole weekend went by and I was like, I hope everybody forgets about this thing. And then every freaking cover photo is Kailon Black.

for the 49ers because, I mean, he's cutting into McCaffrey's rushing, which has been McAfree's problem. The stuff that makes McCaffrey look human that he wasn't good at last year is running the football and the Niners. I think they know that. And they're kind of trying to supplement it with this guy. This is their solve for an issue that they saw last year, which is always something I'm going to lean into whatever our team is kind of showing you that like, whoops, we messed

that up last year. Let's lean in with this player. And so, and there's obviously, there's so much just built-in contingent upside with any McCaffrey backup. That's why those guys are always owned, even like two or three deep. Who is the little speedster from Rutgers that was there for a minute, like the fast, Isaac Garindo, like, think of your Garindo's, you know. Grendo, Elijah Mitchell has been one in the past.

Like, he was actually in the big leagues you and I play. He was a week one guy that, out of the first. $1,000, literally it took $1,000 to win him. And he paid his off. He was worth it, by the way. Yeah, I think we had McCaffrey that year in a main of it. And I was like, yeah, dude, just bid like $8.50. And that didn't get it done.

It did not get it done. But, I mean, you know, it's one of those situations that I'm always like kind of circling of really good offense, good scheme, really good coach. And then a player that has like the requisite talent behind a guy that, I guess McCaffrey's been healthy nowadays. But I'm old enough, old enough to remember the years when he wasn't, and how much money he cost me.

So Kailon Black really interests me. Anybody else in here you want to pick out and kind of throw some numbers up? Black is definitely the one that is available in a majority of leagues, regardless of the style of league you play in. And for me, it's not even about, it is about that,

but it's not even about what, you mentioned all the caveats relative to the other available running backs. It's just that none of them are serviceable. None you can actually zoom out and ask yourself, is this role real? And it's probably not real. Like for Travis ETIN and more importantly, the pickup,

Kendry Miller, like, yes, Kendry Miller matched ETN with eight carries apiece, 46% of the teams running back carries. But ETS also got 24 million in free agency. He's handled 295 touches in two of the last three seasons. Like the career resume and the money in free agency suggest that Kendra Miller was a week one option that they sprinkled in, giving a handful of touches, but it's not going to last. Whereas Kalin Black, most likely, most likely.

It's not a thing, right? Australia, there's so many reason to throw this game out the window, including the Rams not giving a shit above all else. Aaron Donald didn't want to come. they said fine whatever they get off a plane they play football they don't even care about acclimating the time schedule Devante adams led the entire league and red zone and end zone targets last year he doesn't get a target inside the 10 yard line because again they don't care they're not even using him the way he should be used cotton Williams all the touches Matthew stafford is horrible which that actually kind of does make sense where he moors with the falcons and week 17 last year own Matthew stapper just playing show coverage and making him throw underneath and he kind of owned staffer it again in this matchup. But overall, like everything the Rams did also suggest

Sean McFay did not care about this game and just wanted to get out of there and return to a normal routine from week two on to win the division. So I threw everything out. Having said that, range of outcomes is a word, you can take a shot. I use every time because I do want to understand, like, although I think this,

this could also happen and set us up for success. And Kaelin Black, unlike Kendry Miller, unlike Keaton Mitchell, Caitlin Black can actually siphon these touches. If you blindly look at the box score, you would say, oh, 27-7 win by the 49ers. Caitlin Black iced the game at the end because it was garbage time. Even in the first half, Blackout touched Christian McCaffrey 8 to 7. This is a true timeshare from the very beginning of the game.

Thus, it could be that moving forward, which keeps Christian McCaffrey explosive too. He won't rival then the third highest share of running back touches as he did with the 49ers last year, but this will keep them fresh and explosive. And that's what we care about for longevity. Yeah. I mean, saving Christian McCaffrey for, you know, week 15, 16, 17 plus makes a lot of sense for their business portfolio. They haven't been able to do it. They've talked about doing it for at least two or three years now. Since he's been a 49er, I think I've heard the quotes from Kyle Shanahan of like, I want to preserve this guy and then he just can't help himself. And so I could realistically see them going, okay, you weren't that good of a rusher last year.

The numbers will tell you that. You can just watch the games. I remember watching and just be like, that dude does not have the juice in the rushing game and still can put up borderline legendary upside running back seasons because he catches the ball so well. And I think they just want some kind of answer. And they've tried it so many different ways. And these guys just always get hurt behind him as well because the damn substation

out there. But yeah, Caleb Black's the super interesting one. And I wanted everyone to be a little bit more quiet on as we headed into the weekend. The other,

I want to call out three others really quick because I know they're available. And again, it's actually for usually prioritizing the first few weeks, I will say week two waiver wire is weak. That's why I think like Kaelin Black is a strong option because we're really just shuffling

the end of our bench. for the just in case players. One, though, I believe, probably should have been drafted in the last round. If everyone was understanding the revolving situation, Devon Valle is usable weekly. He's flexible for the Saints. They will not have the same volume

as they did this past week with Tyler Shuck and the Saints leading the league with 86 plays and 56 pass attempts. Won't happen again. But this Kellynmore offense is one. that already showed us last year, they can rival for a lead league in pace, seconds between snaps and leading the league in that stat just last year.

And so although it won't be the 80 plus plays every week, it's going to be volume. And this is the tightest wide receiver room in the entire league and that Bryce Lance, their third wide receiver, ran 44 routes. The next guy, the fourth wide receiver on the Saints, ran five routes. They only used.

three guys between Chris Olavay, Devon Veilay, and Bryce Lance. Thus, Bailey is now going to be out there for a bad defense, honestly. And at least in the short term this week, this explosive Ravens offense that has the fourth highest team total of the week. So we expect Shuck and the Saints to keep their foot on the gas the entire time. Yeah, I watched a decent amount of that game. It just looks like a good college offense. You know what I mean? Like, I'm still so shocked dude about Tyler Shuck. Like I cannot believe Kellan Moore has gotten this out of a day two quarterback who, if you looked at the profile coming out of college, was not anything what you're seeing on tape.

Like it's kind of a joke that he's reached this point of his career already. And for anyone who watched the first half of that Saints Lions game, that was Tyler Shuck from college. And then the second half, he brings them back to nearly like end all survivor pulls across the country. I mean, dude, in that overtime, he was perfect. He was perfect. And I guess I didn't realize the rule of like,

if you're the second team that has the ball, you have to go for two. I was like, okay, here we go again. I was like, he has outplayed. He played better than golf did at any moment in that game. And I was like, what the hell is happening? But yeah, Velae is interesting. I mean, it is a super condensed, one receiver room.

I do have to trick myself sometimes whenever I think a guy is like a short timer. Because I know Jordan Tyson's going to come back at some point. Yes. He's not dead. It could be eight weeks, whatever. And I always like, oh, well, I want this, don't want to be worried about this guy in seven weeks. And then I like mess my mind up a little bit on my decision making on it. And I'm like, yeah, dude, you're probably going to turn over that spot anyway.

Like just go get the guy. Go get a guy that contribute right now. Like worst case scenario, like you got to cut him in three weeks. Big deal. Fantasy football happens in windows. And so I just take advantage of windows. It's a fine balance between what I'm saying and what you're saying. and that you were also looking for the players, even though you wouldn't start them,

you would stash them immediately, thinking they have this path to break out. But also, especially early in the years, we're trying to avoid the injury landmines and just figuring out which roles players are taking on. Like I started Devon Bailey over Malik Neighbors, for example, because I didn't want to wait into the Sunday night window to find out if neighbors was playing since it seemed like he was a true game time call. Also, I'm the moron who believed in the Cowboys defense, until I was scared about Jackson Dart on Sunday night.

So I just played Bailey and got it out of the way, and he outscored Malik Neighbors. Even if I backdoored that luck, that's the kind of situations we're in early in the year. We're just taking the wide receiver two on this explosive team and saying he's going to be out there for an offense that's trailing often. Yeah, and you just don't know what the next week brings. I mean, it started early this year where Bowers and AJ Brown were,

to my first three picks on a very expensive team. I was like, cool, man, let's roll out just rando. Let's roll out our 15th round pick. Dude, I have, I have Bowers and Loveland, the double tap to start in two of those expensive teams. And even when Bowers was injured, right, I felt great. And then the Loveland egg on Sunday. It's like, well, perhaps I'm not as smart as I think I am. That'll do it, man.

That'll do it. Just like we're just sitting there after the draft. We all need to be humbled. Yeah, kissing each other's ass about no one's going to start with a Bowers. AJ Brown star, that doesn't happen. You know, sorry, you wanted to talk about two other dudes on here. Yeah, I think this guy, next one, fits more along the lines of what you're talking about, and Caleb Douglas, Dolphins wide receiver.

Draft into the third round for a wide open target tree that historically, like coming into the year, traded Tutu Atwell and opened with Malik Washington. We have an entire career resume of Malik Washington under Mike McDaniel, unusable at any point, not someone you're excited about. and Chris Bell, who was drafted on day two, had he not suffered a torn ACL during the off season and not been able to participate in the NFL combine, Chris Bell was a player who a lot of NFL scouts

thought he was going to go at the end of the first round. He has that kind of talent. And so it's really fluid when I talk about Caleb Douglas, which is why I don't talk about him with as much confidence as a lot of people around the industry. Having said that when a day two rookie still emerges with a 22% target share and finished 20th and yards per route run at his position, we need to take notice of that, especially given that Malik Willis was exactly who we thought he was

in those past two seasons of starts, albeit a small sample with the Dolphin, with the Packers. Malik Willis finished top three and air yards per pass attempt as a guy similar to Drake May at North Carolina who is either going to run or bomb the hell out of it. And that's exactly what he did with the dolphins, which is why they're bad, but they're kind of fun. The issue, though, and why it's so fluid for Caleb Douglas, despite those elite peripherals, or that Malik Washington, although we have this resume we don't have confidence in, still led them in routes run. So he's still the wide receiver won. And Chris Bell, although he's recovering from this injury, was brought along slowly,

still miraculously ran a route on 50% of their dropbacks. And so what happens then as Malik Washington continues to run more. routes or lead them in routes run and Chris Bell gets healthier. Like what happens then to Caleb Douglas in a wide open target tree, which is why I don't have as much confidence as a lot of people, but I still think he's a great speculative ad wherever he's at. Yeah, the Dolphins thing is, I think it's going to kind of just shift back and forth throughout the season of who their wide receiver one is.

And I don't know how well you're going to be able to predict that. And I assume because I liked Chris Bell more in the draft. and it is called soon he'll overtake at some point and be their wide receiver one. But I just, you know, it's one of those like take a handful. So take a couple. Or you just want a part of it because it's free pretty much with Douglas and Chris Bell. And you're right about Chris Bell. And like my theory about Chris Bell is that the 49ers really wanted to take him, that 33rd overall pick.

and they didn't get like the right medicals from him or even before that then he gets hurt and they're like oh we really want this yak wide receiver in the strip club who is now also injured for long extended period of time who is the other guy you wanted to touch on one more which is thin i think you can win him for two or three dollars in your in your home league but i still think it's really interesting that Antonio williams you know out of all these young receivers we talk about really liked them coming out of college the fact was though even throughout his career he was a primarily a slot receiver and on sunday in his debut with the commanders did not run a single route from two wide receiver sets but even though diami brown ran more routes

as the commander's wide receiver three uh Antonio williams outproduced him and finished third the entire league in yards per route run and only a 26% route share again he's a talented player playing with the best quarterback of this group of rookie receivers we talk about, right? Caleb Douglas, Denzel, Boston, the list goes on. And so there is a path here where Jaden Daniels just builds a chemistry with Antonio Williams for what is, and at least in week one, what proved to be, not a great defense for Washington. So I still like a speculative ad on Williams as well for, again, what is a weak waiver wire in week two. For sure.

All right, I put a collection of names together by kind of by ADP. And I'm going to throw him at Daigle and I'm going to ask him which one of these players after week one is he most worried about. And I try to do four names in each. At the top, these are all running backs, coincidentally. But let's start with tell me the one your most worried. about and I guess tell me the one like you're just like whatever dude like doesn't matter um christian mcalfrey james cook omari at hampton or devon a chan which one of those players are you most worried about after week one it's a lukewarm worry because i was down on him

throughout the offseason and the entire process but i don't think we've learned anything about Devon A. Chan to give you confidence either. His 18% target share matched mirrored, his 17.5% target chair from last year. But the dolphins are, in fact, a significantly worse offense, which is exactly what we projected. They finished 30th and success rate, 29th in EPA per pass,

and they are favored in one more game, at least by look-ahead lines for the rest of the year against the Jets. And quite honestly, they shouldn't be favored in that game either. And so it just seems like a terrible runout and at least the opportunity for Devon A-chan in week one, that really seems like there's no more meat left on that bone. And he has to produce based on that for the rest of the year. And that's not something I'm comfortable with.

Yeah. He's the one that I knew there'd be days like this. Like I was in on A-chan at cost, whenever he started slipping a little bit further into the second round. And I was like, I knew there'd be days like this. And it was going to test your resolve. and they're going to go into games that have 55 offensive plays, ran in it, and it's just not going to work. But I also know the next week he could get the Jemir Gibbs share of the pie

that he just got and get 28 touches. It completely changes. And so it's like, I don't know what you're supposed to do about it. Like, I don't know if there's an action item from A.C. Besides, like, you know what? You're rolling them at RB2 at your flex and you're living with it. if you want to get off it, like everybody and their mother is going to quote it.

You like, well, the offense offense sucks. It's like, all right, cool. Who are you not worried about in the slightest of this group of CMC, James Cook,

and Hampton? James Cook, actually. Okay. Maybe it's what the bill's offense will be for the rest of the year. But, you know, we talked about the top of the show,

teams rolling out different personnel in week one. I haven't asked Pagnetti. I haven't interviewed a coach and asked him this just yet, but I feel as if I have seen, and this dates back the last decade, two decades of watching football, I've seen more purposeful game plans for week one

because there's more time to plan than any other game throughout the week. And then we get into what teams actually want to do from week to one. But you can plan for an opponent because you have months of camp to then study strictly for week one. and the Bills and Josh Allen against D'Amico Rines the past few years to this point,

Josh Allen had a 52% completion rate for 5.1 yards per attempt against the Texas. They owned him. And in week one, the splits were so wild compared to what we've seen from the Bill's offense in the past. I do question if they spent a couple months saying, how do we beat a Super Bowl contender defense and the Texans? Josh Allen, for example, led the entire league with 12 and a half air yards per attempt. basically just launching it downfield, the Dalton Cade and DJ Moore, and not even thinking about James Cook in the interim.

I do wonder how much that changes. So as I said, Devon Ait, not much meat left on that bone. A h.nke of it left for James Cook to still be like a top four, top five running back. Yeah. And I mean, they are a traditionally extremely power run team. They're going to load up fullbacks and tight ends and extra linemen. out there to try and get their run plays and advantageous situations. And it just kind of shocked me that week one was not a James Cook game.

And his usage was kind of concerning to me. And I didn't own that much James Cook, just because I didn't know if they'd actually use them in the passing game in the style of other running backs that were going in that range. But yeah, I mean, his peripherals were great outside of, you know, only 13 carries He's only four targets for James. I was sitting there at Sunday night just going like, you know, Joe Brady's in charge now, but he's also been the guy in charge of the offense for a little while.

And so it's not necessarily a new person, but them doing it through the air just never even crime on the bills. I was like, you know, Donald and Kaye could have a good year. I don't think DJ Moore's going to do anything, like, you know, deliver necessarily on a top 50-60 pick. And I was like, what if the bills do it through the air? And it just kind of got me spinning out about James Cook a little bit. But they're very likely to week two just go out there and just like grind the living shit out of somebody with the ground game.

But yeah, I think the one I think the one I'm most nervous about or most worried about in this group, honestly, is Hampton. Just because I was already kind of worried. I think he had the most approve of the guys that were going into first, early second in that running back group. And then just Mitchell taking the third down work, Mitchell taking the two-minute work. But none of them, I'm not going to overreact on any of them. I will definitely test the perimeter on all these guys and send out little offers. But only 50 snaps for the Chargers, right? 55 plays for the dolphins. So this is one of those week one things. It was, it was busy for

Michael too. It's almost like he put too much on his plate at least for week one. When Ladd McConkey was on the field, by the way, the Chargers offense was living up to the hype. Justin Herbert was averaging 10.3 yards per attempt, the fourth best rate in the league, and they had the highest passing success rate as well. The moment Ladd McConkey left that game in the second quarter from that point forward, Justin Herbert plummeted to 28th in yards per attempt and 30th, dead last and success rate. It did not go well. And I don't know why it took one player leaving the field, albeit, you know, a good player,

but one player leaving the field for Mike Mandanian's offense to fall apart, but that's literally what happened. And from that point forward, they had no answer against the Cardinals. Yeah, that's absolutely nuts. But you're right. All right, sliding down the list on ADP, all right, most worried about from this tier, I had to put Colston Loveland in somewhere, so he's on here. Travis Etienne, A-Chain, however he prefers us to say his name,

Devante Smith, and then Jalen Waddle, who had an absolute stinker. So did Smith. But, yeah, Loveland, Etienne, Smith, and Waddle. Who are you most concerned about? Oh, it's very easily Jalen Waddle. and it's because this was foreseeable, not that this did happen or will continue to happen, but it was always possible that some receiver other than Jalen Waddle led the Broncos in receiving because Sean Payton's offense never schemes the ball for one individual.

And that's exactly what we saw against the Chiefs on Monday night. It was Pat Bryant instead, who was targeted on a team high 29% of his routes. So a third of the time he's running the route, he's getting a target basically for a team I 42 receiving yards. And going back to after the Broncos by, so from week 13 on, Cortland Sutton and Pat Bryant have now shared the field for 108 plays. And it's Bryant who's led them with a 22% target share to Cortland Sutton's 19.5%. So it's not just that Bryant in terms of earning targets is a better player has proven to be than Cortland Sutton. it's now also the fact that they're still scheming targets for Bryant over Jalen Waddle. And that's a big concern considering we drafted Waddle and that, quote, great wall of wide receivers in the third through sixth round.

So I would say quite easily. I'm very much worried about him. Yeah, he was starting the wall or even jumping into like the third round at some points. At the last week, he was jumping into like the end of the third round in a couple drafts that I was. was in in the main event. And yeah, I don't want to read too much into it because I watched, you know, the second half of that game. And it seemed like Bo Nix was out there in like a clown car. Like what the hell was going on, dude? Like he was just doing like JV football shit. By the way, it's always funny being on social media during Broncos' primetime games because

everyone acts like they've watched Bo Nix play professional football for the first time ever. you've not seen, he has always been the same bad quarterback you think he is. It's just that he works into Sean Payton offense because he doesn't throw, usually lazy interceptions, and he doesn't take sacks. And that's all Sean Payton asks you. But in terms of like winning the game, no, no, no, he ain't that guy. It just happened to be last year where their schedule ran out perfectly. They drew the nuts in terms of which teams to beat.

And their defense was so elite still is that it could have done. definitely carried them over the Patriots had Bonix been healthy. Yeah, yeah. It's like the other side of the coin of like the Shanahan system where Shanahan could have like a serve bot, a robot playing quarterback, and it would still be aesthetically pleasing. Yes. It's like, it's like whenever Bonix gets out there and whatever Sean Payton's doing, I'm like, I just hate watching it.

Like it just sucks. The first thing that came to mind when I saw that Chief Broncos game on the schedule and I had to it up under the matchup previews for primetime games that establish the run. And I thought everyone is about to get so disappointed because this game sucks so hard. Yeah. Yeah. He was doing just Bozo Auburn shit that I saw him do at Auburn where I'm like, brother, just run out of bounds, throw the ball out of bounds. Like anything but what you're doing.

Like he got on tilt. He was on full tilt late in that game. And it felt like they were down by a thousand. And it was like, this game is not over. Okay, jumping out of the next collection of dudes, most worried about Devante Adams, on Judkins, Harold Fanon, Kyle Pitts. Who are you most worried about from this next group?

How can you not be worried about Harold Fanon in between two rookie wide receivers, all competing, one being first round in Casey Concepcion, by the way, all competing in a wide open target tree with poor targets. Denzel Boston was the one who ultimately got there all because he caught the team's only end zone target, a 46-yard touchdown on Sunday. But it was Casey Concepcion who still led the team in targets with the better profile and being drafted in that first round.

And if you watch the film too, Deshaun Watson under threw that motherfucker by 30 yards on a wide open touchdown. Just the most disappointing play I've ever seen. I'm still projecting it to be this way against the Bucks and Todd Bowles who's going to blitz to Sean Watson's face off in week two and then returning home for the first time for their season opening on week three then I expect the Brown's organization to then declare Shadur Sanders as a starter as if they hadn't been planning that the entire time to look like the heroes of this situation.

But Harold Fanon was, you know, that mid-round tightness. in we spoke about where the names change but the results stay the same and go to die because you're asking us to draft Harold Fanon around Christian Watson for example. That's why we don't do it. It's not a knock on the player or their outlook for their career. It's just that when the mid round tight end serves, that's when you avoid them because you can find Isaiah likely, Dallas Goddard. That's how replaceable the onesie position is at the top and then at the bottom. That's when you weigh it the most. The middle, though, death. And Harold Fanon just seems like he's been walking towards death.

Yeah, I don't have any, I got some dynasty shares because I was a, you know, I was a fan of the duck-footed young man last year. But no redrafts. It just wasn't happening. I was like, this is a range in which I have zero interest in taking a tight end. And then, you know, I hate, I like him as a player. Like I think, I want to root for Harold Fanon. but you're right.

Like they are going to sacrifice Deshaun Watson at the altar of like the gods second quarter next week. And then it's going to be shoulder. And then we'll reassess. You know, we'll reassess in a couple weeks of like what that offense looks like and can they like support any ass catchers. But it was a bad bet to begin with. And it's turned out to be a really bad situation.

And it sucks because there was a lot of enthusiasm about Casey Concepcion. At least Casey Concepcion got three carries. That's exciting. They're five of ways to give him the ball after all. Yeah, exactly. And then, you know, TAY Adams, he's just not getting used in heavy personnel and didn't get a target inside the tent. That's super concerning for his profile, because that's what he lived off last year.

Judkins, we talked about classic trapback shit that he's doing. And then Pitts, I would shock Pits up to having to play a full game with Cooper Rush. not super not super worried about that but also don't own that much fits Adams I just talked that up to week one not worried about Adams just yet if he still is not used in that red zone role where he just bodies opposing cornerbacks and owns them in the end zone then I'll be worried if he's not doing that in week two Kyle Pitts definitely Cooper Rush has just gotten worse every year removed from Dallas his final year under Mike McCarthy

he was 34th in EPA for dropback. Last year with the Ravens, he was 63rd among all quarterback. So like he's a third stringer basically for them. And then in week one, Cooper Rush was literally dead last among all players in EPA for dropback. It just it just gets worse. The further he gets removed from being able to mimic. Here we go. Yeah.

Okay. So we don't have time to jump into a lot of these team specific topics that I threw on here. But I wanted to give you the option. talk about the one you're most interested in. So pick one of these for me. Bucky Irving, obviously the seven receptions helps his total number, but just playing like an RV1 and dominating that backfield. J-mo, which might be a little, that's kind of like a B-side.

That's a, that's a, that's a, you know, hidden cut, I think, on the, on what's happening this week of like, J-mo, if he catches what was thrown at him last week. Like, it's like the biggest game ever. Ravens offense, holy shit. I just, I thought they're going to be good. I didn't think they're going to be this good. And then A.J. Brown leaves a gigantic hole in the Patriots offense. Is there a winner out of that situation or is it just going to be really ugly?

So tell me which one you want to jump in on. I think it's going to be really ugly for the Patriots. You can sprinkle on the replacements, but what we're really doing is reverting to last year's offense where if anyone rostered and started Kashon Booty, it did not go well until the very last month when he was scoring touchdowns. Before that, he wasn't even a rosterable player. Trust me, I tried on many teams. And so that's what I worry about that. Matt Collins out wide, DeMario Douglas in the slot, Romeo Dubs will probably be their offer the most production among these players. but also it wasn't pretty at least in week one with Drake May.

You know, for the high stakes leagues that we play, I think Eli Raritan is the big winner here and tied in premium because the Pagers are still actually an above-average team in bulk sets, so two and three in Tidon sets because they can deploy Rarden and Hunter Henry together. I think that's what ultimately happens, which could limit DeMario Douglas despite me personally believing he has their best receiver left on that roster. So I like Rarden in the deeper format. not for the people playing their typical home league fantasy football.

In terms, though, of the buying, I'll still go Jameson Williams. Like you said, it's the B side, but he comes away with a 23% target share in an offense that I don't believe they go outdoors until week 16 against the Bears, week 17. That's the first time literally they don't play an indoor dome game. So I'm just going to ride that schedule in Jared Gough. what is still projected as the league's easiest schedule the rest of the way and just say that Jameson Williams is going to take this target share and not drop the ball next time he gets a crossing route, literally.

Yeah, yeah, I was just stunned by how many air yards and potential yards he had. And I'm just like, all right, man. Like, I need to get more shares. Like, I don't have enough right now. And maybe it's already like a really unbalanced, scary plankton. walk whenever you take J-Mo in like fourth or fifth or something like that. Like you're already trying to hear like, I don't know if I like that unless you're a real sicko and you're just like,

yeah, screw it. There's a, there's a stat we use in fantasy football that you know, called expected fantasy points. So, you know, based on average of this player's usage, their target share, their routes run, this is what they should have scored. Jameson Williams was actually the wide receiver. So he's a top 12 wide receiver and expected fantasy points. but he finishes the wider receiver 31 because of those drops. So I'm just going to chase again that elite opportunity he had. Yeah. Okay, let's run through some buys.

These are guys that I'm sending offers for, or I'm buying curious. I'm curious. Hey, what do you think of this guy right now? By curious. You're right. By curious. And then I have like, just ask about it.

Just ask the owner in your league. So speaking of guys that had a Jillian air yards and did absolutely nothing with it. D.K. Matcalf. I think the guy that drafted D.K. Matcalf was probably a reluctant D.K. Metcalf drafter to begin with. And then you see the first week where he catches nothing. And I think had 200 air yards did very little with it. I think the guy that has D.K. Metcalf would like to just do anything with D.K. Matcalf at this moment.

So I'm sending a low ball offer and just seeing how you're feeling on that. Jalen Warren, that backfield is really confused. using right now. They're using Rico Dowdle in the third down roll, Jalen Warren in the first and second down roll. Jailen Warren looked so much better than Rico Dowdle in that game. Like that dude was ripping off chunks of yardage in the portions I saw. So Jalen Warren was a guy that I own a lot of already so I can't trade with myself, but

very, very bi-curious on Jalen Warren. Colston Loveland, I'm definitely just asking if I don't have them already. Chuba Hubbard. I'm a Jonathan Brooks guy, obviously. That's kind of tough right now. But it was never the play that Jonathan Brooks was going to come out and get 25 carries week one anyway. But I'd like to secure up that backfield.

And that might be the cheapest way to get a whole backfield at this point is to send something that the, because the Chuba Hubbard owner did not draft Chuba expecting him to start necessarily. And so you send something that could help him in maybe another position. and get Chubon on board, then you have Jonathan Brooks, and then you can watch whenever the, you know, the levers do move and Jonathan Brooks starts taking over that backfield, week like six, you're like, good, I have both.

And then Concepcion, I'm asking about, James and definitely asking about. And then, like I said, Jonathan Brooks, if I don't already own them, which I own them, I'm thinking every league. So which one of those guys do you want to, or do you have your own list of buys or do you want to, Do you want to chop up? I got a couple.

Did you mention Colston Loveland? I did. Yes. Yes. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So Colston Loveland is a big one.

It's pretty easy to zoom out and say, hey, this tied in led the team that scored 59 points and routes run. And there's a lot of ways you can look at it. There are people who are much better at me than watching the tape and telling you exactly what happened. I think it's just literally because of the way. Aziro O'Averro plays defense for the Panthers and lots of deep shell coverage. And you have to get the ball underneath, which is why Kleefe Raymond excelled in finding those pockets and zone coverage. This week is exciting for Colston Lovell and two because that 74% blitz rate from Brian Flores, we talked about when Caleb Williams,

when Caleb Williams was blitzed in week one by the Panthers, he was five of seven for four first downs and eight yards per attempt. Last year against the blitz, Caleb Williams, 11 touchdowns, which was the third most in the league, only one turnover. Like the guy similar to that Prescott pre-snap prognosticates defenses before they even know it. He understands how to read them. So I do think we see some bounce back success for Colston Loveland. And then I think the sneaky one that you're probably not expecting, you can get Marshawn Lloyd for dirt cheap right now. I love it.

It's a Packer's offense, I've been telling you throughout the show I'm buying. But for Marshawn Lloyd, the runout kind of made sense. was an elite Vikings run defense that finished seventh and EPA per carry last year. You just never played running backs against them. And it makes sense, right? Brian Flores historically has always led the league in blitz rate. Thus, they always have eight guys in the box, seven, eight guys, so they can stop the run at will. And they leave themselves in man coverage behind that blitz. Marshawn Lloyd, though, still handled 62% of the team's running back carries, which is the eighth highest rate among all running backs.

And so, like, if we think, like, he's going to get this share against now a defense that doesn't blitz as much, thus he's going to have more light boxes to run against, there's a real chance Marshawn Lloyd comes away with double-digit carries in 100 rushing yards, like shockingly. And again, because of his production with just three and a half fantasy points, you can get him for pennies on the dollar right now. And so even if it's this month-long window we get right, because Josh Jacobs, we think, comes back in week six.

There's still like this outside chance, by the way, if we squint, that Marshawn Lloyd outplays Josh Jacobs. But overall, at least we have this month window where now we can get the starting running back in an explosive offense, who they did quietly give the work to. So I like buying Marshawn Lloyd pretty low. I like that call. I like that call. It can't get much worse than week one in like the-can't get worse at all. Yeah, the theory of what we had about Marshawn Lloyd, which we kind of did walk out on a plank collectively as a fantasy commuter. or as at least the Sharps did, it was proven right.

Like, they want to give him the ball 60% of the time, despite the fact that he's never played consistently before than ever. So, yeah, I was very happy. I was happy, sad about the week one for Marshawn Lloyd, because I definitely got a lot of Marshall Lloyd, and I was like, all right, here we go. Or is the usage? And I'm like, ah, not this week.

Not going to get the points. But it's all good. I think it's a good call because the Marshaun Lloyd owner is probably pretty skeptical about Marshawn Lloyd like everyone should be. So my top three sells, I was having a hard time because I usually don't sell after week one to begin with. But if I'm looking for somebody that had a game that I don't think, that was already a little about and think I could make profit off of right now,

we mentioned Scataboo earlier. I think he's top my list because number one, they don't play the Cowboys again until for a while. The Greg Roman offense is pretty notorious for people figuring it out. And they were, you know, I don't know. I have to talk about the Cowboys game tomorrow for a couple hours. And I'm kind of dreading it because I don't want to like make fun of them or like demean them. But I knew where they were running the ball every play.

If you just watched that big son of a bitch, Richard Ricard. They're running behind him. Whenever he goes in motion, guys, that's where it's going. Like, that guy. They're following him. There was an entire drive where Matt Nagy was just playing Madden and running the same play in the flats. Every single snap. And everyone saw it. Spamming circle. And everyone saw it except for Christian Parker, unfortunately. Yeah. And there's just like a lot of that shit happening. And Scataboo had about the best game that he could possibly have, didn't have like an insane point total and I just don't think that happens for them

a ton more times you know who they play next week right who they have they play Aaron Donald and the Rams in prime time yeah they're gonna get fucked up they're gonna try that shit are going to get right next year yeah they're gonna try that shit they're gonna try high school

high school veer ass offense and they're gonna get wrecked so I'm trying to get off scataboo because I think people will look at week one and go like, oh, the usage was there. And then you're not going to look at the fact that, you know, Cowboys that the other team had two possessions in the second half. And they were bleeding the clock. And every run play was working consistently. The environment's never going to happen again.

Same for Isaiah Likely. I'm old enough to remember when Isaiah Lakeley did this last time. Like, I know. Coaches get enamored with Isaiah likely and they want to feature in week one. And then people go, oh, that's what you're doing with them? Okay, yeah, I can cover him with this. And the Cowboys just had never heard of or watch tape on Isaiah likely ever in their lives prior to week one, which was fascinating. And then, you know, I'm probably not selling Parker Washington, but I'm putting some packages together that include Parker Washington to try and maybe tear up on a better player at a position of need.

mainly dynasty is what I'm thinking of because in redraft you drafted Parker Washington in the sixth like you're not trading him yet but those are my guys do you have any sales dude you're trying to get off of? You kind of touched on one but I do think the biggest sale right now is Chuba Hubbard

just because we believe Jonathan Brooks's role grows beyond this and honestly Chuba Hubbard got there because he caught that receiving score but when he doesn't have a 15% target share, because that's the role that Brooks is coming for first, what happens? How far does the bottom fall out?

And I'm really worried. So it just seems like this will be, especially against the spares defense, the highest performance that Chuba Hubbard has all year. Thus, I'm going to sell him right now when it's right. And then I'm also worried about Rishi Rice, because previously Rishi Rice had this role to himself

where him and Khalil Shakir were always the wide receivers with the lowest depth of targets. All they did was run in front of the line of scrimmage. And to be fair, even against man coverage, you can't cover that route because crossing routes, you can do so many things, including pick plays. So Rashid Rice is always open. The issue is that the chiefs,

after giving Kenneth Walker, the most guaranteed money on the open market as position, they then targeted Kenneth Walker and their running backs at the second highest rate in the league at 32% of their targets. So now what happens to Rashie Rice, when he doesn't score that little, touchdown that he had because they're also targeting their running backs and Xavier worthy in the same area of the field where Rice previously won.

So I would take that touchdown and flip Rice considering we're not too far removed from everyone remembering they drafted him in the second or third round. Yeah, and he's what would Norm call it a tarnished asset, you could say, where everyone has an opinion about it. like none of it's good right um but still phenomenal football player uh on on the level um yeah i was i was really excited because i wasn't watching the first half of that game live and i got a all right was like oh okay let's go like cool and then the rest of that game i yeah i'm like could not be less encouraged about my one rushi rice share you know i'm in too many leagues when i got a

evan ingram touchdown sleeper notification and i was like i don't i didn't even click on it i don't want to look at what league this is because that means I'm in too many leagues. Yeah, yeah. He was bawling out for a little while. He's the only one on the Broncos I was making plays whenever they were, whatever they were trailing. I'm still not proud of it. I still deserve it.

Okay, to wrap up, we don't have to go through all and give grades for all of the new offensive coordinators. But if you wanted to pick a couple out, because this does legitimately like change my season outlook. pretty significantly. If a guy shows me, like he has a bag of tricks, and he knows what he's doing, at least,

with this collection of players, like, early on, this can sway my opinion, especially first-time coordinators and guys that aren't actually, you know, like the Bill's guys on here, Joe Brady's calling this place. Okay. Mike Lafleur, not a first-time play caller necessarily,

but did a good job. So did any of the offensive court, the new offensive coordinators impress you and change your opinion about maybe what their offense could be moving forward. Oh, the Ravens were cooking when Zayflowers was available. For reference, last year, only Drake May averaged more yards per attempt from 11 personnel, three wide receiver sets than Lamar Jackson, except, you know, in this style of offense,

the Ravens have tried to play multi-tied-in sets the past few years. last year they only ran 11 personnel on 30% of their snaps, the lowest rate in the entire league. Wednesday Flowers was healthy. They ran 11 personnel at a 58% clip. So if we're going to get that more often because Zayflower sounds day to day, that he didn't come back because they were scorching the Colts by so much. Like this,

this just takes the lid off of what Lamar Jackson and this offense can do. Remember that Declan Doyle is like the seedling of the Ben Johnson tree. And so this all makes sense that it's just suddenly clicking with one of the most talented and electric quarterbacks in the league too. Yeah, I had somehow seen, I didn't get to watch any of that game. I had somehow seen the Derek Henry line before I had seen any context of the game. And I was like, oh, cool, you know, like a 2417 Ravens game where Henry just kind of took over and no one else contributed. And I was like, oh, shit. I was like, what, how?

Like how do they have a balanced offense that is like getting it done through the air? And Zay is, you know, owning the target share and the deep polls. Like what's happened? And I still know, I want to go through and watch that game. It's one of those great offenses that they don't play to win third down because they don't play for third down. Like that's what good play callers do. Yeah. Yeah.

That completely changes your perspective whenever you have a play caller that, yeah, it's the Ben Johnson thing. It's, you know, it's the seven, having the metal balls walk into the room and just like, here you go, put balls in the table. Like, we're playing to win. Like, I don't care about anything else. The rest of it, it completely changes and narrow, narrows your decision matrix. Awesome. Any other OCs you want to touch on or was that the one? That's the one that stood out the most, quite honestly.

Sean Manning, the Eagles did run three wide sets at the fifth highest rate. Again, we didn't get Saquan Barkley running those routes, which is concerning. But to see Jalen Hertz back to his rushing ways was also very good. And it's such a tight rotation for Mackay Lemon, their first round receiver, for him to be absent basically all of camp with a hamstring injury. In return and rival, Don Tavian Wicks is the wide receiver too. It wasn't good usage or like a performance necessarily for Mackay Lemon, but it's the fact that they have an entrenched three wide receivers.

So we know who to latch on to Dantavian Wicks as like a streamer in deeper leagues included. Yeah. And then likewise, like, so LaFleur put together a good enough game plan to obviously win. That was fine. You need Jeremiah Love to surpass Alger at some point. And maybe Mar will look like an NFL player. Like that's your job, Mike LaFleur. Let's do that rest of season.

And Falcons look like ass because the backup quarterback. Declan Doyle, we talked about. Pete Carmich, we talked about he's the Bills, O.C. Browns just aren't going to get out of it until they chop the legs off the quarterback and decide to move to the next one. Super concerned about the Broncos with Davis Webb, because that just looked fugly. That was bad. And then the Titans as well.

And I don't know what I expected from the Titans, but it was not whatever that shit was. And then the rest of the OCs, I kind of put in our notes here that I put in yellow. They're green, red, yellow. Yellow, I'm like, I need to see more. You need to know more. Nagy, I wanted to give Nagy some credit because he curbstomp the Cowboys in a way that I just, man, that's the most shocking thing about the Cowboys game is I did not think the Giants had that in them. I just really didn't. And then I put the Lions and Raiders OCs in there, which is, you know, Kubiak and Petzing.

because the willingness to give those running backs that share, and Gentie and Jemir Gibbs, and wins, obviously, you know, Bijan got a lot of touches, but it was like, what the hell is we going to do? Lions and Raiders, just knowing that both those dudes, Gibbs was obvious, Gibbs is the 101, but Ginty was obviously a little bit nervous there at the end on where to draft him, and just knowing that that up that upsides there i love that i love that whenever a new running back comes in the scene and their oc is not going to fiddle fart and fuck around with his his carries his third down work his two-minute work his goal line stuff like the opposite of what i was saying

about like omari in hampton earlier right um and so to see ginty kind of breaking out i really i really love that um but yeah that section is the juice man we've been on for an hour 20 hope you all enjoyed it hoping to be watching this probably tomorrow on on uh youtube to be honest on the dumb zone channel i hope you're hope you got some advice any anything you want to you want to leave with uh leave with dagle gives some people some advice it'll help them win their um home league at least uh this week or next did you see that frank rike and the jets ran a play that had five time on the field with King and Sadiq

is a running back too. Man, man's a madman. Speaking of my heart, Frank Ray. I would just be wary. I think the biggest tip I've come away with this week is just being wary about drops because you're upset at these players.

Like, you know, I'm getting a lot of questions about Colston Lovell and Marshawn Lloyd, these guys. But again, we've given all the reasons why I'm not worried in the slightest. And that's why week one is always the hardest because it's just a lot of, of not reacting, which is healthier,

as opposed to trying to go one way or the other. And so as this show goes along throughout the season, we'll definitely have more answers. But right now, I just don't want to overreact in either direction. Yeah, no, I think that's smart. I think you got to, yeah, you spent the whole offseason, like, building your opinion about this collection of players and to abandon it.

Only for Khalif Raymond to lead the bears and targets. Only for Khalif Raymond. and to completely fuck up your Luther bird and Colston Loveland bags all in one week. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you spend a long time putting together your ideas of like what this player pool is going to look like and how it's going to work out. And man, there's 16 more weeks.

It is so long. And there's shit that happens week one that we will forget by three o'clock Sunday next week. So, yeah, just do trust, if you put time into it and you legitimately can't. about it and you and you listen to guys like dagle and read etr and you know check out pf and all the you know check out crane's work on legendary upside and actually give a shit and stay plugged in man you're you're doing more than probably you know 80% of the people out there and just have you know have some faith in in your process of getting here specifically if you play a lot of teams um you're going to have a couple bad teams but on the whole like you want to win it like a you know

a 60, 65% clip on the year. And if you can do that, because your process is strong, that means you're not wavering week one. That means you're not getting off your ideas. That means you're not abandoning your ideology after a week or two or even three sometimes. It takes a long time for that stuff to pay off. I remember Trevion Henderson last year. I remember I know what tootin's going to do this year. You know what I mean? Like I know this stuff is coming and you got to have some faith and some long. view to it. So hopefully we're helping you have an edge on the people in your home leagues or whatever kind of league you play in. But this is week one for action is the juice. John, I appreciate

your time, man. You're the best. You got any more articles coming out this week or is it all shows? Stay tuned for Estableness to run. The free podcast and YouTube feed, by the way, which I'll be on a couple more times throughout this week. But articles just will be breaking down primetime matchups before. Yeah, games. Yeah. finally cracking that beer on Friday once the week's over and finally relax yeah well appreciate you man you're the best thank you guys for watching and we'll catch you next week